Player Spotlight: Shaun Alexander (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Shaun Alexander Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[diesel7982]

I expect we'll see the SEA offense more closely resemble the relatively pass heavy offense we saw in the 2nd half of last year, rather than the run heavy offense we saw in the 1st half. That said, Salex still has one of the easiest schedules in the league, and is still one of the premier backs in the game.

350/1700/20, 20/150/2

 

[nygiants56]

I expect we'll see the SEA offense more closely resemble the relatively pass heavy offense we saw in the 2nd half of last year, rather than the run heavy offense we saw in the 1st half. That said, Salex still has one of the easiest schedules in the league, and is still one of the premier backs in the game.

350/1700/20, 20/150/2

Salex?! oh brother...

220-880-8, 10-60-1

an injury happens, and Moe Morris becomes the starter for the remainder of the season.

 

[fruity pebbles]

350/1680/20

25/180/1

 

[lebowski]

I expect we'll see the SEA offense more closely resemble the relatively pass heavy offense we saw in the 2nd half of last year, rather than the run heavy offense we saw in the 1st half. That said, Salex still has one of the easiest schedules in the league, and is still one of the premier backs in the game.

350/1700/20, 20/150/2

Salex?! oh brother...

220-880-8, 10-60-1

an injury happens, and Moe Morris becomes the starter for the remainder of the season.

This is a ridiculous prediction. Alexander is the most durable back in the league and this is completely ludicrous. You must have Morris in a keeper league or something. This almost hurts the credibility of this board. Good luck with projections like this.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Easily one of the best pure runners in the game. Great offensive line even without Hutchinson. You all know the stats with at least 16 tds in the past 5 years. I think even in a down year, he gets around 16 tds.

I respect the Madden Curse, I realize it's held true in the past, but honestly, it's not something I'm going to consider on draft day.

Alexander's lack of receptions over the past few years puts him at #3 on my list, but he's still miles ahead of everyone after 3.

368 rush attempts

1803 yards

18 rushing TDs

26 receptions

182 receiving yards

4 receiving TDS

 

[Bankerguy]

I expect we'll see the SEA offense more closely resemble the relatively pass heavy offense we saw in the 2nd half of last year, rather than the run heavy offense we saw in the 1st half.  That said, Salex still has one of the easiest schedules in the league, and is still one of the premier backs in the game.

350/1700/20, 20/150/2

Salex?! oh brother...

220-880-8, 10-60-1

an injury happens, and Moe Morris becomes the starter for the remainder of the season.

This is a ridiculous prediction. Alexander is the most durable back in the league and this is completely ludicrous. You must have Morris in a keeper league or something. This almost hurts the credibility of this board. Good luck with projections like this.

Agreed.....this is brutal.I am pretty sure if this guy had the #3 pick and LJ and LT were gone.......it would take him 2 seconds to say "I select Alexander".

I really hope these get netted out of the Consesus rankings.

 

[Fodasme69]

I do not like Alex this year. No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year.

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

I see a down year for Alexander, let's look at the facts:

- Signed a big contract

- Team is coming off a Super Bowl loss

- Lost Steve Hutchinson from OL

- Will be 29 this season

- Has logged 1049 carries over the past 3 seasons (1129 total touches)

In my opinion, this all adds up to a down year. He is still a RB1, but those who have him above Larry Johnson or LT2 will be sorely disappointed.

320/1420/11

23/120/1

 

[fruity pebbles]

I see a down year for Alexander, let's look at the facts:

- Signed a big contract

- Team is coming off a Super Bowl loss

- Lost Steve Hutchinson from OL

- Will be 29 this season

- Has logged 1049 carries over the past 3 seasons (1129 total touches)

In my opinion, this all adds up to a down year. He is still a RB1, but those who have him above Larry Johnson or LT2 will be sorely disappointed.

320/1420/11

23/120/1

11 rushing TDs with 320 carries? Odd numbers to say the least.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

I see a down year for Alexander, let's look at the facts:

- Signed a big contract

- Team is coming off a Super Bowl loss

- Lost Steve Hutchinson from OL

- Will be 29 this season

- Has logged 1049 carries over the past 3 seasons (1129 total touches)

In my opinion, this all adds up to a down year.  He is still a RB1, but those who have him above Larry Johnson or LT2 will be sorely disappointed.

320/1420/11

23/120/1

11 rushing TDs with 320 carries? Odd numbers to say the least.

Is it? 5 of the 10 backs that had over 300 carries last year had 11 or less TDs last year. Maybe given SA's history it seems low, but I believe Seattle (and, specifically, Shaun Alexander) is not getting any better.

 

[Mooks77]

Last year his YPC was 5.1, the best of his career. Assuming he returns to his career average of 4.6 YPC with the loss of Hutchinson. And let's say that the defense does not play up to its potential so he only gets 300 carries, his floor is

300/1380/14

But his upside is huge. He has had more than 295 carries every year since 2001, he has had at least 14 TDs every year since 2001. If the defense does play up to its potential and the loss of Hutchinson does not hurt as bad as everyone thinks, I see him getting 340 carries @ 4.6 YPC. He is a monster in the red zone so I give him 18 TDs.

340/1564/18

I would gladly take him over LT.

 

[kbleck]

SA's upcoming 2006 year will be fine IMO. In their weak division I think SA will have some big games. I see 10 of the 16 games where he will be up against average Defenses at best.

(XX) denotes questionable opponent's Defense)

at Detroit (XX)

Arizona (XX)

New York Giants

at Chicago

at St Louis (XX)

Minnesota (XX)

at Kansas City

Oakland (XX)

St Louis (XX)

at San Francisco (XX)

Green Bay (XX)

at Denver

at Arizona (XX)

San Francisco (XX)

San Diego

at Tampa Bay

One thing I don't get is where people have said that Seattle's D may not live up. I personally think their D was the area where they improved.

Julian Peterson signing was huge.

Tatupu gains experience as well.

I guess their secondary is the only question but didnt they sign a new Cover Corner?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Is it? 5 of the 10 backs that had over 300 carries last year had 11 or less TDs last year. Maybe given SA's history it seems low, but I believe Seattle (and, specifically, Shaun Alexander) is not getting any better.

How can you say Seattle is not getting any better?Their defense is getting better and that is good for Alexander's numbers cause it means they will play with the lead more often.

 

[diesel7982]

SA's upcoming 2006 year will be fine IMO. In their weak division I think SA will have some big games. I see 10 of the 16 games where he will be up against average Defenses at best.

(XX) denotes questionable opponent's Defense)

at Detroit (XX)

Arizona (XX)

New York Giants

at Chicago

at St Louis (XX)

Minnesota (XX)

at Kansas City

Oakland (XX)

St Louis (XX)

at San Francisco (XX)

Green Bay (XX)

at Denver

at Arizona (XX)

San Francisco (XX)

San Diego

at Tampa Bay

One thing I don't get is where people have said that Seattle's D may not live up. I personally think their D was the area where they improved.

Julian Peterson signing was huge.

Tatupu gains experience as well.

I guess their secondary is the only question but didnt they sign a new Cover Corner?

They drafted Kelly Jennings and lost Andre Dyson.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

Is it?  5 of the 10 backs that had over 300 carries last year had 11 or less TDs last year.    Maybe given SA's history it seems low, but I believe Seattle (and, specifically, Shaun Alexander) is not getting any better.

How can you say Seattle is not getting any better?Their defense is getting better and that is good for Alexander's numbers cause it means they will play with the lead more often.

You are correct. I was referring to the offense (although I didn't make that clear).

 

[fridayfrenzy]

SA's upcoming 2006 year will be fine IMO. In their weak division I think SA will have some big games. I see 10 of the 16 games where he will be up against average Defenses at best.

(XX) denotes questionable opponent's Defense)

at Detroit (XX)

Arizona (XX)

New York Giants

at Chicago

at St Louis (XX)

Minnesota (XX)

at Kansas City

Oakland (XX)

St Louis (XX)

at San Francisco (XX)

Green Bay (XX)

at Denver

at Arizona (XX)

San Francisco (XX)

San Diego

at Tampa Bay

One thing I don't get is where people have said that Seattle's D may not live up. I personally think their D was the area where they improved.

Julian Peterson signing was huge.

Tatupu gains experience as well.

I guess their secondary is the only question but didnt they sign a new Cover Corner?

They drafted Kelly Jennings and lost Andre Dyson.

Will be getting Hamlin back and lost Manuel

 

[jurb26]

340 carries, 1540 yds, 14 TDs, 35 rec, 245 yds, 2 TDs

Career years are hard to back, especially after a SB hangover. Sa is still rock solid for top 5 though.

 

[diesel7982]

SA's upcoming 2006 year will be fine IMO. In their weak division I think SA will have some big games.  I see 10 of the 16 games where he will be up against average Defenses at best.

(XX) denotes questionable opponent's Defense)

at Detroit  (XX)

Arizona    (XX)

New York Giants 

at Chicago 

at St Louis  (XX)

Minnesota    (XX)

at Kansas City 

Oakland  (XX)

St Louis    (XX)

at San Francisco  (XX)

Green Bay  (XX)

at Denver 

at Arizona (XX)

San Francisco  (XX)

San Diego 

at Tampa Bay

One thing I don't get is where people have said that Seattle's D may not live up.  I personally think their D was the area where they improved.

Julian Peterson signing was huge.

Tatupu gains experience as well.

I guess their secondary is the only question but didnt they sign a new Cover Corner?

They drafted Kelly Jennings and lost Andre Dyson.

Will be getting Hamlin back and lost Manuel

Is Hamlin's return assured? I keep seeing good reports, but then the occasional warning that he may not be ready.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

They drafted Kelly Jennings and lost Andre Dyson.

Will be getting Hamlin back and lost Manuel

Is Hamlin's return assured? I keep seeing good reports, but then the occasional warning that he may not be ready.

Well he has been at mini camp and is expected to be cleared for contact for the Traning Camp.

 

[Banger]

I don't think it's a stretch to say SA's #'s will go down but his floor is way above most RB's ceiling. The Hawks still have a good balanced offense, have a good line (maybe not the best anymore), play in an awful division, have a good defense, he's the unquestioned #1, he never misses a game, do I need to go on? He's as solid as solid can be and I can see taking him anywhere among the top 3 but no later.

1650-16

 

[The Jacket]

Lets himself down with such poor receiving skills, but a monster in the run game; that offensive line in that division - it's just a match made in running back heaven.

356 carries, 1816 yards (5.1 per carry), 24 TD

18 receptions, 122 yards (6.8 per reception), 1 TD

Overall, good for the #1 fantasy player of the 2006 season. (I had Johnson as the #1 player a few weeks back but have since had a change of heart; I see Johnson with around 100 less rush yards and 250 more receiving yards, but with three to four less touchdowns.)

 

[eriadoc]

Every year, posters find some reason to say why Alexander is going to have a down year or not be worthy of the #1 pick overall. The man has scored 98 TDs in five seasons. No one else in the history of the NFL has ever scored 98 TDs in a five-year span.

I'd take him #1 overall and be happy with it. Alexander has done as much to make that line look good as they have done to make SA look good. Womack will fit right in, Hasselbeck will have another solid season, the WR corps won't be as decimated this season, and Stevens will actually continue to improve at TE. The 'Hawks play StL and SF twice each as well, which helps.

(I know, the consensus #1 pick is LJ, but I'll take SA, thanks)

 

[Musesboy]

Alexander doesn't get the respect he deserves. Most owners still had LT rated ahead of him in drafts last year despite Alexander's 2004 performance.

That said, I just don't see him getting very close to last year's record breaking production. He was in a contract year and probably had a chip on his shoulder after missing out on the rushing title by a single yard the previous year.

Alexander has increased his rushing yardage for three straight years, and enjoyed a career-best 1880 last year. In contrast, his receiving numbers have fallen for three straight years. After 59 receptions for 460 yards in 2002, he fell to 15/78 in 2005. Perhaps part of the reason for that was his success running the ball? He averaged over 5 yards per carry for the first time and was responsible for 107 first downs.

He will be 29 years old just before the start of the season. That's not too old to worry me, but a few other factors make me think his production will fall. He lost guard Steve Hutchinson to free agency. Hutchinson had started all 48 games over the last three years. The passing game should be stronger with the return of Darrell Jackson and the addition of Nate Burleson. Alexander's career average is much lower than anything he achieved last season. The team will no longer have in mind that he was close to the rushing record, and the plays should be more balanced. The Seahawks had a great season and controlled many of the games by running down the clock. Any sort of let down could see the focus move more towards the passing game.

Alexander should still be an elite player and I expect a top four finish, but I see a large reduction in output.

Prediction

336 carries 1480 yards 16 TDs

25 receptions 185 yards 2 TDs

The Madden curse is nonsense.

 

[Jack Burton]

SA is a lock for 1400 and 15. Its unlikley he repeats last years numbers, but he still puts up top three RB stats. His receiving numbers have dipped recently but he is such a scoring machine that it wont matter. He has scored no less than sixteen TD's since becoming the starter...what more do you want.

 

[joffer]

332/1500/19

19/134/1

it's not that i wouldn't take him if i had the #4 pick, but i hope i don't end up with him.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

What's not to like? Has seen his yards and average go up every year for the past 4 while never scoring less than 14 TD's. Has a great offense returning all the key parts except Hutchinson, plays in a defensively weak division with a decent schedule this year. Carries a "soft runner" label with him despite the fact he's only missed one game the last 4 years. Seems to be a lock for 1500 and 15 as his floor with decent upside--is analgous to Peyton in terms of upside with minimal risk. May not have the upside of LJ, but carries less risk too.

With all these positives, there is the loss of Hutchinson although I think Seattle is deep enough on the O-line to make this transition pretty smoothly. You can't replace Hutch right away, but Tobeck, Jones, Locklear...plus Strong all return and 3 of those guys went to the Pro Bowl last year. The stars aligned for SA last year no doubt, but I can't see any circumstances short of injury why he wouldn't reach 1500/15 as a floor.

1670 yards, 18 TD's plus 2 more through the air

 

[ChampBailey24]

I do not like Alex this year. No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year.

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.

 

[David Yudkin]

I do not like Alex this year. No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year.

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

 

[Fodasme69]

I do not like Alex this year.  No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year. 

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.  

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

I think the carries, the loss of Hutch, playing INTO Feb, signing a new contract, and the Madden curse; will just get to him AND Seattle. As of now I have my 3rd Tier with Jackson, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Alexander and Rudi.For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling. I've been pimping him hard for the past few years and actually convinced a friend of mine to take him 2nd last year instead of Manning (who he owned when he broke the record) or Holmes...but this year I'm doing the opposite.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I do not like Alex this year.  No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year. 

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.  

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

I think the carries, the loss of Hutch, playing INTO Feb, signing a new contract, and the Madden curse; will just get to him AND Seattle. As of now I have my 3rd Tier with Jackson, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Alexander and Rudi.For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling. I've been pimping him hard for the past few years and actually convinced a friend of mine to take him 2nd last year instead of Manning (who he owned when he broke the record) or Holmes...but this year I'm doing the opposite.

I know the story with the Madden Curse, but my goodness. It seems every post regarding Alexander has someone downgrading him for it. Ok, I get it. It's one thing to say his #'s will dip, it's another to say he won't be top 8 because he's on a video game cover. You can't help but get the impression everyone is hoping to call the big bust this year. I'm still fairly new to the board. Did Mcnabb get this much heat over being on last year's cover?

In any event, you go ahead and drop hiim 5 or 6 spots because he's on that cover, I'll be happy to take the guy that got 28 tds and run while you stay away from the big bad Madden Curse.

 

[Fodasme69]

I do not like Alex this year.  No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year. 

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.  

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

I think the carries, the loss of Hutch, playing INTO Feb, signing a new contract, and the Madden curse; will just get to him AND Seattle. As of now I have my 3rd Tier with Jackson, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Alexander and Rudi.For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling. I've been pimping him hard for the past few years and actually convinced a friend of mine to take him 2nd last year instead of Manning (who he owned when he broke the record) or Holmes...but this year I'm doing the opposite.

I know the story with the Madden Curse, but my goodness. It seems every post regarding Alexander has someone downgrading him for it. Ok, I get it. It's one thing to say his #'s will dip, it's another to say he won't be top 8 because he's on a video game cover. You can't help but get the impression everyone is hoping to call the big bust this year. I'm still fairly new to the board. Did Mcnabb get this much heat over being on last year's cover?

In any event, you go ahead and drop hiim 5 or 6 spots because he's on that cover, I'll be happy to take the guy that got 28 tds and run while you stay away from the big bad Madden Curse.

That's not the ONLY reason and it's not a major point in my dropping him in my rankings. I honestly feel that them playing into FEB and Alex getting 99.9% of the carries will affect him this year. I may be wrong but to not take that into consideration is a mistake IMHO. There haven't been too many WORKHORSE RB's who made it to the SB in year N than had a better or even CLOSE to even year in N+1.

 

[wannabee]

I do not like Alex this year.  No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year. 

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.  

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

I think the carries, the loss of Hutch, playing INTO Feb, signing a new contract, and the Madden curse; will just get to him AND Seattle. As of now I have my 3rd Tier with Jackson, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Alexander and Rudi.For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling. I've been pimping him hard for the past few years and actually convinced a friend of mine to take him 2nd last year instead of Manning (who he owned when he broke the record) or Holmes...but this year I'm doing the opposite.

I know the story with the Madden Curse, but my goodness. It seems every post regarding Alexander has someone downgrading him for it. Ok, I get it. It's one thing to say his #'s will dip, it's another to say he won't be top 8 because he's on a video game cover. You can't help but get the impression everyone is hoping to call the big bust this year. I'm still fairly new to the board. Did Mcnabb get this much heat over being on last year's cover?

In any event, you go ahead and drop hiim 5 or 6 spots because he's on that cover, I'll be happy to take the guy that got 28 tds and run while you stay away from the big bad Madden Curse.

That's not the ONLY reason and it's not a major point in my dropping him in my rankings. I honestly feel that them playing into FEB and Alex getting 99.9% of the carries will affect him this year. I may be wrong but to not take that into consideration is a mistake IMHO. There haven't been too many WORKHORSE RB's who made it to the SB in year N than had a better or even CLOSE to even year in N+1.

Why do you not downgrade LT for his carries? In one less year, he has more regular season touches than does Alexander. How about Portis? He has right at 700 carries and 70 catches in just the last two years as a 'Skin.If you want to downgrade Alexander, fine. But, this excuse of number of carries seems to apply to all of the top RBs since they all use the high number of touches to score the ridiculous amount of fantasy points.

 

[Fodasme69]

I do not like Alex this year.  No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year. 

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.  

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

I think the carries, the loss of Hutch, playing INTO Feb, signing a new contract, and the Madden curse; will just get to him AND Seattle. As of now I have my 3rd Tier with Jackson, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Alexander and Rudi.For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling. I've been pimping him hard for the past few years and actually convinced a friend of mine to take him 2nd last year instead of Manning (who he owned when he broke the record) or Holmes...but this year I'm doing the opposite.

I know the story with the Madden Curse, but my goodness. It seems every post regarding Alexander has someone downgrading him for it. Ok, I get it. It's one thing to say his #'s will dip, it's another to say he won't be top 8 because he's on a video game cover. You can't help but get the impression everyone is hoping to call the big bust this year. I'm still fairly new to the board. Did Mcnabb get this much heat over being on last year's cover?

In any event, you go ahead and drop hiim 5 or 6 spots because he's on that cover, I'll be happy to take the guy that got 28 tds and run while you stay away from the big bad Madden Curse.

That's not the ONLY reason and it's not a major point in my dropping him in my rankings. I honestly feel that them playing into FEB and Alex getting 99.9% of the carries will affect him this year. I may be wrong but to not take that into consideration is a mistake IMHO. There haven't been too many WORKHORSE RB's who made it to the SB in year N than had a better or even CLOSE to even year in N+1.

Why do you not downgrade LT for his carries? In one less year, he has more regular season touches than does Alexander. How about Portis? He has right at 700 carries and 70 catches in just the last two years as a 'Skin.If you want to downgrade Alexander, fine. But, this excuse of number of carries seems to apply to all of the top RBs since they all use the high number of touches to score the ridiculous amount of fantasy points.

Like I originally said "For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling." I would not say WOW why would you take Alex "anywhere from 1-3" all I'm saying is I couldn't do it.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I do not like Alex this year.  No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year. 

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.  

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

I think the carries, the loss of Hutch, playing INTO Feb, signing a new contract, and the Madden curse; will just get to him AND Seattle. As of now I have my 3rd Tier with Jackson, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Alexander and Rudi.For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling. I've been pimping him hard for the past few years and actually convinced a friend of mine to take him 2nd last year instead of Manning (who he owned when he broke the record) or Holmes...but this year I'm doing the opposite.

I know the story with the Madden Curse, but my goodness. It seems every post regarding Alexander has someone downgrading him for it. Ok, I get it. It's one thing to say his #'s will dip, it's another to say he won't be top 8 because he's on a video game cover. You can't help but get the impression everyone is hoping to call the big bust this year. I'm still fairly new to the board. Did Mcnabb get this much heat over being on last year's cover?

In any event, you go ahead and drop hiim 5 or 6 spots because he's on that cover, I'll be happy to take the guy that got 28 tds and run while you stay away from the big bad Madden Curse.

That's not the ONLY reason and it's not a major point in my dropping him in my rankings. I honestly feel that them playing into FEB and Alex getting 99.9% of the carries will affect him this year. I may be wrong but to not take that into consideration is a mistake IMHO. There haven't been too many WORKHORSE RB's who made it to the SB in year N than had a better or even CLOSE to even year in N+1.

Why do you not downgrade LT for his carries? In one less year, he has more regular season touches than does Alexander. How about Portis? He has right at 700 carries and 70 catches in just the last two years as a 'Skin.If you want to downgrade Alexander, fine. But, this excuse of number of carries seems to apply to all of the top RBs since they all use the high number of touches to score the ridiculous amount of fantasy points.

Like I originally said "For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling." I would not say WOW why would you take Alex "anywhere from 1-3" all I'm saying is I couldn't do it.

lol "couldn't" I'd be extremely happy to get him at 3, or 4 if someone decides he can't perform anywhere near that level. You know the story on the 16 tds, so I won't write it for you again, but I look at somone like Portis and think 16 tds is the high end for him, with Alexander, I feel he's a safe bet for that, and very possibly much more.

 

[Fodasme69]

I do not like Alex this year.  No projections from me (still working through mine) but he will not finish in the top 8 this year. 

If I had the 3rd pick and LT and LJ were taken 1-2 I would take Portis and not think twice.  

Any rationale for the drop to #8?

I think the carries, the loss of Hutch, playing INTO Feb, signing a new contract, and the Madden curse; will just get to him AND Seattle. As of now I have my 3rd Tier with Jackson, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Alexander and Rudi.For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling. I've been pimping him hard for the past few years and actually convinced a friend of mine to take him 2nd last year instead of Manning (who he owned when he broke the record) or Holmes...but this year I'm doing the opposite.

I know the story with the Madden Curse, but my goodness. It seems every post regarding Alexander has someone downgrading him for it. Ok, I get it. It's one thing to say his #'s will dip, it's another to say he won't be top 8 because he's on a video game cover. You can't help but get the impression everyone is hoping to call the big bust this year. I'm still fairly new to the board. Did Mcnabb get this much heat over being on last year's cover?

In any event, you go ahead and drop hiim 5 or 6 spots because he's on that cover, I'll be happy to take the guy that got 28 tds and run while you stay away from the big bad Madden Curse.

That's not the ONLY reason and it's not a major point in my dropping him in my rankings. I honestly feel that them playing into FEB and Alex getting 99.9% of the carries will affect him this year. I may be wrong but to not take that into consideration is a mistake IMHO. There haven't been too many WORKHORSE RB's who made it to the SB in year N than had a better or even CLOSE to even year in N+1.

Why do you not downgrade LT for his carries? In one less year, he has more regular season touches than does Alexander. How about Portis? He has right at 700 carries and 70 catches in just the last two years as a 'Skin.If you want to downgrade Alexander, fine. But, this excuse of number of carries seems to apply to all of the top RBs since they all use the high number of touches to score the ridiculous amount of fantasy points.

Like I originally said "For me its mostly just a "gut" feeling." I would not say WOW why would you take Alex "anywhere from 1-3" all I'm saying is I couldn't do it.

lol "couldn't" I'd be extremely happy to get him at 3, or 4 if someone decides he can't perform anywhere near that level. You know the story on the 16 tds, so I won't write it for you again, but I look at somone like Portis and think 16 tds is the high end for him, with Alexander, I feel he's a safe bet for that, and very possibly much more.

I'm just glad I DO NOT have to make this choice. I have 4 drafts left and I have the 1st, 12th, 11th, and the 5th picks so unless he falls to 5 in that draft I think I don't have to make that call!

 

[Perry Ice]

I scoff at the idea that Shaun Alexander is not a decent receiving option.

Take a look at some of Alexanders previous receiving numbers early in his career. In his first 3 full years Alexander averaged 48 catches and 366 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air.

In 2002, which was his lowest rushing output of his career (outside of his rookie year), he put up 59 receptions and 460 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. In that year, he had 8 receptions twice, and had at least 6 receptions 6 times!.

Those numbers are defiantly not reflective of a running back with poor receiving skills.

It is not like those numbers were put up under a different regime. The same coaching staff that is in place today(Holmgren Head Coach, Gil Haskell Offensive Coordinator), was the same staff that Alexander put up lofty numbers in the receiving game.

In a year where Alexander only put up 1,175 yards rushing, he still managed to finish as the 5th top running back, because of his contribution in the receiving game.

Think for a moment how much more dominating Alexander would have been last year if he could have had 40 catches and 300 yards, rather then 15 catches for 78 yards. I don't see his numbers being that low this year, at the very least Alexander should be back around 30 catches.

This is a guy that has averaged 17 touchdowns a year, over that past 5 years, never in that span has he dropped lower then the 6th top running back, when we talk about consistency, Shaun Alexander is the poster boy. He is coming off a year where he put up 27 touchdowns, and has been the best fantasy running back the last two years, and someone ranks this guy as a #8 RB....that is absurd.

His touchdown totals are just too high, to think that Alexander could ever drop to the 8th best running back. If Seattle works Alexander back into to the passing game like they have in the past, even just slightly, Alexander can stay an elite back even if his touchdowns and rushing yards dip. I think in terms of consistent production Alexander is the safest bet there is out there.

Projection: 350 rushing attempts 1680 yards, 18 touchdowns. 30 catches for 220 yards 2 touchdowns

 

[rzrback77]

I would love to draw the fourth pick in this year's draft and allow my league mates to select my first pick. I would be extremely happy with either LT, LJ, Alexander or Portis and I can't imagine anyone else going in the top four of any draft.

Of course, Alexander must slip a little this year. The main reasons for this are:

1) Last year was contract year

2) Lost Hutchinson

3) Long season in 05 and many, many carries

Still, he has been awesome and will continue. He has had 16, 18 16, 20, and 28 TDs over the past five years. WOW! He has had 1661, 1635, 1730, 1866, and 1958 total yards over that same span. How could anyine not be excited to get him on their roster and possibly as low as 4th! WOW!

340 carries for 1460 yds and 25 catches for 170 yds and 20 TDs

edt for typos

 

[jurb26]

I scoff at the idea that Shaun Alexander is not a decent receiving option.

Take a look at some of Alexanders previous receiving numbers early in his career. In his first 3 full years Alexander averaged 48 catches and 366 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air.

In 2002, which was his lowest rushing output of his career (outside of his rookie year), he put up 59 receptions and 460 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. In that year, he had 8 receptions twice, and had at least 6 receptions 6 times!.

Those numbers are defiantly not reflective of a running back with poor receiving skills.

It is not like those numbers were put up under a different regime. The same coaching staff that is in place today(Holmgren Head Coach, Gil Haskell Offensive Coordinator), was the same staff that Alexander put up lofty numbers in the receiving game.

In a year where Alexander only put up 1,175 yards rushing, he still managed to finish as the 5th top running back, because of his contribution in the receiving game.

Think for a moment how much more dominating Alexander would have been last year if he could have had 40 catches and 300 yards, rather then 15 catches for 78 yards. I don't see his numbers being that low this year, at the very least Alexander should be back around 30 catches.

This is a guy that has averaged 17 touchdowns a year, over that past 5 years, never in that span has he dropped lower then the 6th top running back, when we talk about consistency, Shaun Alexander is the poster boy. He is coming off a year where he put up 27 touchdowns, and has been the best fantasy running back the last two years, and someone ranks this guy as a #8 RB....that is absurd.

His touchdown totals are just too high, to think that Alexander could ever drop to the 8th best running back. If Seattle works Alexander back into to the passing game like they have in the past, even just slightly, Alexander can stay an elite back even if his touchdowns and rushing yards dip. I think in terms of consistent production Alexander is the safest bet there is out there.

Projection: 350 rushing attempts 1680 yards, 18 touchdowns. 30 catches for 220 yards 2 touchdowns

I voiced this same arguement last year. Nobody listened then either... Rule of thumb for SA is he will get his touches. Be it runs or be it passes, he will get them. I'm seeing a resuragance in his rec this year. Call it a whim, but the guy is a very good rec RB.

 

[MLBrandow]

Alexander's numbers were slightly inflated in '04 IMO as a result of not having a viable secondary WR option for most of the year, and significantly in '05 as a result of not having a viable #1 option for most of the year.

While it's obvious that SA can take the heat (especially against another soft schedule), I'm not so sure that they want to lean on him as much with a more balanced attack this year in Jackson and Burleson, two solid 1k threats.

It seems as though his decline in receptions has less to do with his capability in catching the ball and more to do with not having capable blockers in front of him in his WRs. With Burleson/Jax on the perimeter, I can't see him getting a lot of catches.

350 @ 4.9ypc + heavy goal-line work again, 25 rec @ 7.4 + 2TD average.

350/1715/16, 25/185/2

RB#4 (LJ, Portis, LT)

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

336 carries 1480 yards 16 TDs

25 receptions 185 yards 2 TDs

The Madden curse is nonsense.

Actual

252 carries 896 yards 7 TDs

12 receptions 48 yards 0 TDs (10 games)

I still think that the Madden curse is nonsense, but Alexander did miss six games in 2006. He was not nearly as effective as he was the previous year, and his numbers would have equated to 403/1434/11 if he had played 16 games. I was lucky enough to draft Tomlinson with every top three pick that fell to me as my expectations for Alexander were on the low side.

Alexander doesn't get the respect he deserves. Most owners still had LT rated ahead of him in drafts last year despite Alexander's 2004 performance.

That said, I just don't see him getting very close to last year's record breaking production. He was in a contract year and probably had a chip on his shoulder after missing out on the rushing title by a single yard the previous year.

Alexander has increased his rushing yardage for three straight years, and enjoyed a career-best 1880 last year. In contrast, his receiving numbers have fallen for three straight years. After 59 receptions for 460 yards in 2002, he fell to 15/78 in 2005. Perhaps part of the reason for that was his success running the ball? He averaged over 5 yards per carry for the first time and was responsible for 107 first downs.

He will be 29 years old just before the start of the season. That's not too old to worry me, but a few other factors make me think his production will fall. He lost guard Steve Hutchinson to free agency. Hutchinson had started all 48 games over the last three years. The passing game should be stronger with the return of Darrell Jackson and the addition of Nate Burleson. Alexander's career average is much lower than anything he achieved last season. The team will no longer have in mind that he was close to the rushing record, and the plays should be more balanced. The Seahawks had a great season and controlled many of the games by running down the clock. Any sort of let down could see the focus move more towards the passing game.

Alexander should still be an elite player and I expect a top four finish, but I see a large reduction in output.

Prediction

336 carries 1480 yards 16 TDs

25 receptions 185 yards 2 TDs

The Madden curse is nonsense.