Player Spotlight: Shaun Alexander (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Shaun Alexander Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[DenverBroncos]

1500 yards, 15 TD's

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Two major factors have to influence your projection:

1) the foot. Yes, Holmgren has denied it's an issue at all, but i'm about this injury. Im not worried about it cutting his season short as much as I'm worried about it limiting his effectiveness, as it arguably did after he came back last year.

2) the O-line. It caused both SA and Hasselbeck problems last year. The right side is unstable, and Pork Chop Womack is already hurt. If the line doesnt have some continuity and consistent solid play on the right side this year, SA will have trouble justifying a top 5 pick.

I would not expect a return to 04-05 form, but getting SA in the 7-10 range of the first should be a solid play this year.

 

[kensat30]

325/1350/15, 30/200/2

I think Seattle is going to go back to doing what works for them best, feeding SA the rock at the goalline. And with the loss of Darrell Jackson and Jeremy Stevens, I think SA will see an increased role in the passing game as well. Once upon a time, SA could be counted on to catch 40 or so passes for 300 yards every year...He hasn't lost that ability.

The overall feeling I have toward SA is that he is being massively undervalued due to the loss of one offensive guard and the freak toe injury that occured last season. This guy has been remarkably healthy throughout his career and I don't see him missing any time in 2007.

 

[shadyridr]

Unlike alot of people I am VERY high on Alexander this year. I think he will return to stud status and he showed me signs late last year that he will. I think we can just chalk up 2006 as a fluke injury plagued year. I have him slotted in as the 3rd pick behind LT, and Sjax and ahead of Gore & LJ.

320 att, 1400 yds, 19 tds, 30 rec, 150 yds, 0 td

 

[KING]

i think shaun bounces back a little this year. we won't see the return of '04-'05, but he should post good numbers. will have more value in non-PPR leagues.

320 1350 4.2 14 and 17 100 5.9 0

 

[BigRed]

SA and LJ are in a similar situation - still performing at or near the top, very recent great great production, but getting up there in age (for a RB) and OL/offense issues.

I don't think I'd trust either to be my go-to guy.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I realize he's been great, above great in the past, but some of these projections are above and beyond my imagination at this point.

He's going to be 30 when the season starts. That's typically the age that Running backs begin to slow down.

He's only 31 carries away from 2000 for his career. He's got a decent amount of wear and tear on him.

Everyone knows he lost Hutchinson last year, and he wasn't as good. He wasn't as good to the tune of 3.6 yards per carry.

Now they trade away their best receiver, I'm bound to believe defenses are going to respect the passing game a little less.

Over his last 6 games, Alexander averaged 112 yards per game. However, that was on 28 carries per game. At 30 years of age and over 2000 career touches, I don't believe his body can handle 28 carries a game. Do you? Honestly?

Obviously his foot was hurt last year, and that attributed to the low ypc, but is it really 100% now? Add in all the other factors, and you're in for a dissapointment if you really expect 1500 yards and 15 or more tds.

 

[Banger]

Forget the days of 1600+ yards and 20+ td's, they left with Hutchinson. He'll get the ball a lot and has no one behind him to push for playing time but I see a Rudi Johnson type year out of him this year 350-1365-12.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

1380 yds, 17 TD, 52 rec, 331 yds, 1 TD

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

A consistent running back who actually makes drafting out of the top 3 attractive this year. I see no reason why there isn't enough gas in the tank to have anoher solid fantasy season.

1400 yards rushing and 14 td's

25 receptions for 188 yards and 2 td's

 

[a_troll00]

He's getting up in age for a RB, and he's had a heavy workload throughout his career. Like some others who posted before me, I'm also a little concerned about his foot. Honestly, his best days are behind him. He might be able to come back for one more solid year, but I'm not gonna gamble a first round pick for him. If he drops out of the first round, I might consider him.

He was absolutely amazing in 2005, and he led me to a league championship. Nonetheless, that was 2005 and time along with wear and tear can be an aging RBs worst enemy.

 

[Banger]

He's getting up in age for a RB, and he's had a heavy workload throughout his career. Like some others who posted before me, I'm also a little concerned about his foot. Honestly, his best days are behind him. He might be able to come back for one more solid year, but I'm not gonna gamble a first round pick for him. If he drops out of the first round, I might consider him.He was absolutely amazing in 2005, and he led me to a league championship. Nonetheless, that was 2005 and time along with wear and tear can be an aging RBs worst enemy.

The age doesn't bother me as much as the questionable status of his foot and the deteriorating o-line (which was once a huge asset).

 

[mad sweeney]

I've never seen one off hand comment cause so much ruckus about a player or his foot. He got over 100 yards in terrible conditions at the home of the best D in the league while it was still hurt last season and he;s had an off season to mend. Alexander is participating fully in voluntary camp. THe team didn't do one single thing to prepare for an injury to him this season. His wear and tear is over exagerated because he crumples from contact and rarely takes big hits. The foot is just not an issue any more than his 'spiritual/miracle' healing comments were last year. His best days may be behind him but not by much. Last year was an aberration from an injury standpoint, not just to him but the whole offense. Young guards are looking very good in camp and a future ProBowl center in Spencer along with stalwart Jones and very competent, if not great RT Locklear at the ends will propel him back to top 5 status. Look for a big bounce back year from the Seattle offense, though not as explosive as their big season 2 years ago. As long as the line stays healthy, Alexander produces.

1500 yards 16 TDs

Holgren is talking about adding new dimensions to the offense this season so I have to think he will pass a little more to SA who was once a great screen pass recipient

300/3

 

[trollmonger]

He'll be one of my keepers but I must admit, I'm ready to part with him. I just haven't been able to find someone willing to take him yet.

But I believe he could have another good season in him. Not 2005 good of course. And this would likely be his last top 10 season.

High side: 1600 yds, 15 TDs, 250 receiving, 2 TDs

Low side (assuming healthy): 1100/10/100/0

Likely numbers: 1400/12/200/1

Those probably aren't top 5 numbers but wouldn't be too far away.

 

[jetpack]

I'm not a big fan of his playoff schedule: 14-AZ, 15-@CAR, 16-BAL, (17-ATL). AZ did a good job containing him last year and Carolina, Baltimore, and Atlanta are all top 11 rushing defenses (if your league does week17). Still, not a big reason to drop him much, just something to keep in mind.

That said, I think Alexander is a good bet for hitting 1200/12 rushing and 100/0 receiving.

 

[rzrback77]

There are a lot of doubters when you think about the possibilities of RBs over 30 years old putting up great seasons. I have been one for a while. However, when just considering the past five seasons, there have been 12 individual seasons of an over 30 RB putting up over 1,000 yards rushing.

02 one James Stewart 1021 rushing yds & 333 receiving yds with 6 TDs for 171 fantasy pts (12.2 pts per gm)

03 had three Eddie George, Curtis Martin and Priest Holmes

E George 1031 rushing yds & 163 receiving yds with 5 TDs for 149 fantasy pts (9.3 pts per gm)

C Martin 1308 rushing yds & 262 receiving yds with 2 TDs for 169 fantasy pts (10.5 pts per gm)

P Holmes 1420 rushing yds & 690 receiving yds with 27 TDs for 373 fantasy pts (23.3 pts per gm)

04 had two Curtis Martin and Corey Dillon

C Dillon 1635 rushing yds & 103 receiving yds with 13 TDs for 251 fantasy pts (16.7 pts per gm)

C Martin 1697 rushing yds & 245 receiving yds with 14 TDs for 278 fantasy pts (17.4 pts per gm)

05 had three Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, and Mike Anderson

W Dunn 1416 rushing yds & 220 receiving yds with 4 TDs for 187 fantasy pts (11.7 pts per gm)

M Anderson 1014 rushing yds & 212 receiving yds with 13 TDs for 200 fantasy pts (13.3 pts per gm)

T Barber 1860 rushing yds & 530 receiving yds with 11 TDs for 305 fantasy pts (19.1 pts per gm)

06 had three again, Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, and Tiki Barber

W Dunn 1140 rushing yds & 170 receiving yds with 5 TDs for 161 fantasy pts (10.0 pts per gm)

F Taylor 1146 rushing yds & 242 receiving yds with 6 TDs for 174 fantasy pts (11.6 pts per gm)

T Barber 1662 rushing yds & 465 receiving yds with 5 TDs for 242 fantasy pts (15.1 pts per gm)

All of these guys would have been nice starting running backs to have. I believe that Alexander's line will be improved over last year and he will be recovered from his foot troubles. He will again rule the red zone for the Seahawks and will again prove in 07 that 30 something RBs still have value.

Alexander 320 carries 1344 yds and 26 receptions for 156 yds and 16 total TDs

 

[ukshane]

There are a lot of doubters when you think about the possibilities of RBs over 30 years old putting up great seasons. I have been one for a while. However, when just considering the past five seasons, there have been 12 individual seasons of an over 30 RB putting up over 1,000 yards rushing.02 one James Stewart 1021 rushing yds & 333 receiving yds with 6 TDs for 171 fantasy pts (12.2 pts per gm)03 had three Eddie George, Curtis Martin and Priest HolmesE George 1031 rushing yds & 163 receiving yds with 5 TDs for 149 fantasy pts (9.3 pts per gm)C Martin 1308 rushing yds & 262 receiving yds with 2 TDs for 169 fantasy pts (10.5 pts per gm)P Holmes 1420 rushing yds & 690 receiving yds with 27 TDs for 373 fantasy pts (23.3 pts per gm)04 had two Curtis Martin and Corey DillonC Dillon 1635 rushing yds & 103 receiving yds with 13 TDs for 251 fantasy pts (16.7 pts per gm)C Martin 1697 rushing yds & 245 receiving yds with 14 TDs for 278 fantasy pts (17.4 pts per gm)05 had three Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, and Mike AndersonW Dunn 1416 rushing yds & 220 receiving yds with 4 TDs for 187 fantasy pts (11.7 pts per gm)M Anderson 1014 rushing yds & 212 receiving yds with 13 TDs for 200 fantasy pts (13.3 pts per gm)T Barber 1860 rushing yds & 530 receiving yds with 11 TDs for 305 fantasy pts (19.1 pts per gm)06 had three again, Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, and Tiki BarberW Dunn 1140 rushing yds & 170 receiving yds with 5 TDs for 161 fantasy pts (10.0 pts per gm)F Taylor 1146 rushing yds & 242 receiving yds with 6 TDs for 174 fantasy pts (11.6 pts per gm)T Barber 1662 rushing yds & 465 receiving yds with 5 TDs for 242 fantasy pts (15.1 pts per gm)All of these guys would have been nice starting running backs to have. I believe that Alexander's line will be improved over last year and he will be recovered from his foot troubles. He will again rule the red zone for the Seahawks and will again prove in 07 that 30 something RBs still have value.Alexander 320 carries 1344 yds and 26 receptions for 156 yds and 16 total TDs

Why do you consider 62.5 yards per game a "great season"?

 

[BigRed]

Why do you consider 62.5 yards per game a "great season"?

Exactly.I want a bare min of 1200 or so yds and double-digit TDs from my RB1 and hope, almost expect, more. (there are exceptions, ie guys like Westbrook who can be counted on for a lot of recv yds)I am not convinced the OL is a shambles, but neither convinced it's "fine." Don't know about SA's injury situation, but even so he at that #$@! 30 yo mark, which always makes me nervous for a RB1.

 

[JimboJim]

Positives

- 1969 total carrer carries; LT has 2050, James has 2500, Lewis has 1800... He may be 30, but he's not a high-mileage back some like to think.

- Lowest workload since his rookie year last season might make him fresher this year.

- No serious competition for touches.

- Seahawks are still a good team in playoff contention every year, that should again ride Alexander if he is healthy.

- Prior to last season, never missed a game in pro-career.

- Has averaged a TD per 22.5 rushes.

Negatives

- Coming off a significant foot injury that limited him to 10 games and a 3.6 YPC last season.

- Offensive line is not where it was a couple of years ago.

- Loss of Darrell Jackson could hinder overall offensive performance.

Bottom Line

I agree with most that the time has passed for one to expect an 1800 yard rushing, 20 TD performance for Alexander. However, I believe that Alexander is actually a value coming off of a poor season last year and should rebound to post numbers similiar to his career averages. I also feel Alexander may see a few more receptions with both Jackson and Stevens gone. After LT and Jackson are off the board, I think Alexander falls right into that group with Gore, and LJ and Willie Parker (I'm not a Westbrook fan).

330 carries

1425 yards rushing

16 TDs rushing

30 receptions

210 yards recieving

2 TDs recieving

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure I'd say SA was not a high mileage back. From 2001-05, only LT had more carries than Alexander did. And if you count their post-season carries, SA almost caught LT in carries in that timeframe

 

[Sweetness_34]

Considering that Zona, SF and Rams all still have crappy defenses, Shaun will be a great pick up this year

 

[Brewzers]

Considering that Zona, SF and Rams all still have crappy defenses, Shaun will be a great pick up this year

I like the way you think. 300/1300/14 25/250/2.

 

[TLEF316]

yeah. he will be facing some fairly lousy D's (although SF will be better against the run with Willis out there)

In a Re-Draft, i definetly think that SA is a solid value if he falls into the 7-10 range. He's a little older than you'd like, but the mileage isnt that high. Plus, he should be fresh to start the year.

In a keeper, i think you have to be more nervous (just as i am) A year from now, ill be doing everything i can to get some value for him. If for some strange reason my team is out of contention late, ill auction him to the highest bidder.

I think 1250-1400 yards and 14-16 TD's is a fair estimate. I wouldnt expect a great YPC though, as teams will stack the box. Obviously, his value takes a decent hit in PPR leagues, barring a major re-vamping of the Seattle playbook.

 

[CA_7]

As an SA keeper league owner I am shocked at how far his value has dropped. Previously, I have offered SA to SJax, Rudi, Ronnie Brown and BENSON owners with zero counters. In some cases (e.g. SJax, I have inlcuded for Holt for a tier III RB).

I am targetting 1700/15 for SA this year and at this point am not looking to deal him unless I get some type of deal involving an up and coming stud. With no true backup to steal carries and an offense design to benefit RBs, I don't see a drop-off until 2009.

The reports about his foot are BS and I have heard he is the best shape of his career.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

yeah. he will be facing some fairly lousy D's (although SF will be better against the run with Willis out there)In a Re-Draft, i definetly think that SA is a solid value if he falls into the 7-10 range.

I imagine many of the people reading this with interest have picks in the 4-6 range though. After LT, Johnson, and S. Jackson come off, you have choices to make in that 4-6 range - Gore, Parker, Addai, Alexander, Westbrook.

 

[az_prof]

yeah. he will be facing some fairly lousy D's (although SF will be better against the run with Willis out there)In a Re-Draft, i definetly think that SA is a solid value if he falls into the 7-10 range.

I imagine many of the people reading this with interest have picks in the 4-6 range though. After LT, Johnson, and S. Jackson come off, you have choices to make in that 4-6 range - Gore, Parker, Addai, Alexander, Westbrook.

I like Gore and Westbrook better, but I like SA better than Parker (who is going to give up some carries this year) and Addai (hasn't proven to me yet that he can be the full-time guy).

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Alexander is going to do even more of what he has always done.

And what I mean by that is...

1) he is going to run soft and avoid taking or giving hits. Even more then before.

2) he is going to carry the load and gets lots of carries. MMorris will get even less useage this year, because he just isnt very good and the team knows it.

3) he is going to use his talent and run hard when he see's the endzone and thinks he can score.

4) he will get a few more dump off passes then he did the last couple years when it simply wasnt needed in that offense. Stevens is gone and Pollard is too limited these days as is Strong.

5) his injury was from wearing down (lots of carries over several years) and he is now somehwat rested, I dont see a big concern. The concern is if he does happen to get injured he will recover at a slower pace due to his bodies age.

6) his scoring chances will remain elevated as Holmgren will feed him the stats to remain the Seahawk poster boy.

7) the team will be competetive and have ample scoring chances, but not quite as good as before, so the rushing attempts will dip overall by a few.

Resulting into...

351 carries

1404 (4.0)

15 TDs

29 catches

210 yards

2 TDs

Making him the #6 fantasy back.

5-6-7 will be similar but a big dropoff at number eight.

His ceiling and floor are close together. Not much variation if he remains healthy.

His ceiling goes up only if he runs hard enough to increase his per carry average.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Pretty tough guy to project this year, IMO. The Seahawks ground attack took a major step back last year: team YPC 4.73 -> 3.97, team rushing yardage 2457 -> 1923, team rushing TDs 29 -> 8 (!). How much of that was due to the Alexander injury, and how much was due to the o-line issues? No way to tell, really, but it is a major concern for me, particularly considering that Alexander's YPC was 3.6 last year.

That said, a healthy (if healthy) Alexander will still see tons of carries, particularly around the goal line. His receiving stats have fallen for five straight years, though, so he won't add anything in that area.

345 carries for 1450 yards, 16 catches for 100 yards, 15 total TDs

 

[Jayrod]

6) his scoring chances will remain elevated as Holmgren will feed him the stats to remain the Seahawk poster boy.

Announcer: The Seahawks are threatening inside the 10, what play will they call?Holmgren: (to self) Well I really think a pass would be a better option right now, but I don't want Shaun to lose his poster boy status.

Announcer: The Seahawks are huddling.

Holmgren: (into headset) pro right zip 36 blast

Announcer: The offense breaks the huddle and sets up the play.

Holmgren: (to self) I hope Alexander can get the TD so he can still be considered a superstar.

Announcer: Hasselbeck hands off to Alexander who cuts right and drives toward the goalline.........

I'm sure that Alexander's "poster boy status" is at the top of Homgren's mind when he is calling plays near the goalline.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

6) his scoring chances will remain elevated as Holmgren will feed him the stats to remain the Seahawk poster boy.

Announcer: The Seahawks are threatening inside the 10, what play will they call?Holmgren: (to self) Well I really think a pass would be a better option right now, but I don't want Shaun to lose his poster boy status.

Announcer: The Seahawks are huddling.

Holmgren: (into headset) pro right zip 36 blast

Announcer: The offense breaks the huddle and sets up the play.

Holmgren: (to self) I hope Alexander can get the TD so he can still be considered a superstar.

Announcer: Hasselbeck hands off to Alexander who cuts right and drives toward the goalline.........

I'm sure that Alexander's "poster boy status" is at the top of Homgren's mind when he is calling plays near the goalline.

It may not be for the "poster boy status" in Holmgrens mind... but it certainly is his number 1 option any time he gets close to the goalline. He wants the ball in Alexanders hands when its close to paydirt. Alexander also runs with more determination when he thinks he can/will score. The end result is the same. And along the way it gives the Seahawks a visable component to their team.

 

[DWidmar]

I found this tid bit on Shaun's mileage and found it interesting as I assumed he had a ton more carries. I do think his O-Line will gel better this year especially with a healthy Alexander and Hasselback.

Alexander has Relatively Low Miles --

Tue May 29, 2007

The News-Tribune reports the big question is whether Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander can bounce back from his first injury-shortened season. He turns 30 in August, a bad number for most running backs. But when you assess the nature of his foot injury -- a cracked bone, not damage to a joint -- you probably aren't looking at anything chronic. We should also note that Alexander, never one to take much punishment, has fewer than 2,200 career regular-season touches. RB Walter Payton had about 4,300. RB Jerome Bettis and RB Marshall Faulk had more than 3,500. Ricky Watters had about 3,100. RB Edgerrin James has roughly 2,900. Alexander has relatively low miles, in other words. He should get back into the 1,200-yard and 15-touchdown range with a little help from his offensive line.

 

[Sabertooth]

Shaun's ability to shuffle into the endzone at the end of runs is only rivaled by Tomlinson. He just know how to score.

340

1450

30

200

17 total tds

 

[David Yudkin]

I found this tid bit on Shaun's mileage and found it interesting as I assumed he had a ton more carries. I do think his O-Line will gel better this year especially with a healthy Alexander and Hasselback.

Alexander has Relatively Low Miles --

Tue May 29, 2007

The News-Tribune reports the big question is whether Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander can bounce back from his first injury-shortened season. He turns 30 in August, a bad number for most running backs. But when you assess the nature of his foot injury -- a cracked bone, not damage to a joint -- you probably aren't looking at anything chronic. We should also note that Alexander, never one to take much punishment, has fewer than 2,200 career regular-season touches. RB Walter Payton had about 4,300. RB Jerome Bettis and RB Marshall Faulk had more than 3,500. Ricky Watters had about 3,100. RB Edgerrin James has roughly 2,900. Alexander has relatively low miles, in other words. He should get back into the 1,200-yard and 15-touchdown range with a little help from his offensive line.

Most RB carries through age 29 . . .1 Emmitt Smith 2914

2 Barry Sanders 2719

3 Jerome Bettis 2686

4 Walter Payton 2666

5 Curtis Martin 2604

6 Edgerrin James 2525

7 Eric Dickerson 2450

8 Eddie George 2421

9 Marshall Faulk 2367

10 Thurman Thomas 2285

11 LaDainian Tomlinson 2050

12 Earl Campbell 2029

13 Franco Harris 2012

14 O.J. Simpson 1997

15 Shaun Alexander 1969

I would not call a RB with thte 15th most carries at his age "low mileage." I wouldn't suggest that he's going to fall apart because of it (the other guys on this list all did pretty good). And for the record, LT is on the list through age 27.

 

[az_prof]

I found this tid bit on Shaun's mileage and found it interesting as I assumed he had a ton more carries. I do think his O-Line will gel better this year especially with a healthy Alexander and Hasselback.

Alexander has Relatively Low Miles --

Tue May 29, 2007

The News-Tribune reports the big question is whether Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander can bounce back from his first injury-shortened season. He turns 30 in August, a bad number for most running backs. But when you assess the nature of his foot injury -- a cracked bone, not damage to a joint -- you probably aren't looking at anything chronic. We should also note that Alexander, never one to take much punishment, has fewer than 2,200 career regular-season touches. RB Walter Payton had about 4,300. RB Jerome Bettis and RB Marshall Faulk had more than 3,500. Ricky Watters had about 3,100. RB Edgerrin James has roughly 2,900. Alexander has relatively low miles, in other words. He should get back into the 1,200-yard and 15-touchdown range with a little help from his offensive line.

Most RB carries through age 29 . . .1 Emmitt Smith 2914

2 Barry Sanders 2719

3 Jerome Bettis 2686

4 Walter Payton 2666

5 Curtis Martin 2604

6 Edgerrin James 2525

7 Eric Dickerson 2450

8 Eddie George 2421

9 Marshall Faulk 2367

10 Thurman Thomas 2285

11 LaDainian Tomlinson 2050

12 Earl Campbell 2029

13 Franco Harris 2012

14 O.J. Simpson 1997

15 Shaun Alexander 1969

I would not call a RB with thte 15th most carries at his age "low mileage." I wouldn't suggest that he's going to fall apart because of it (the other guys on this list all did pretty good). And for the record, LT is on the list through age 27.

Great information. What I find insightful about it is the company that SA is in. Did any of these guys stop running strong in their 30th year? My guess is that most went on for several more years of good service. Guys who are injury prone don't put up 2000 carries, period. Guys who can carry the ball 2000 yards are blessed with durable bodies and talent and so there is a good chance that they will get another 1000 carries.

 

[Sabertooth]

Talk about a whose who of running backs in NFL history though huh?

 

[DenverBroncos]

Alexander will be a top 6 RB for the next 3 years and you can write that down and take it to the bank.

 

[David Yudkin]

I found this tid bit on Shaun's mileage and found it interesting as I assumed he had a ton more carries. I do think his O-Line will gel better this year especially with a healthy Alexander and Hasselback.

Alexander has Relatively Low Miles --

Tue May 29, 2007

The News-Tribune reports the big question is whether Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander can bounce back from his first injury-shortened season. He turns 30 in August, a bad number for most running backs. But when you assess the nature of his foot injury -- a cracked bone, not damage to a joint -- you probably aren't looking at anything chronic. We should also note that Alexander, never one to take much punishment, has fewer than 2,200 career regular-season touches. RB Walter Payton had about 4,300. RB Jerome Bettis and RB Marshall Faulk had more than 3,500. Ricky Watters had about 3,100. RB Edgerrin James has roughly 2,900. Alexander has relatively low miles, in other words. He should get back into the 1,200-yard and 15-touchdown range with a little help from his offensive line.

Most RB carries through age 29 . . .1 Emmitt Smith 2914

2 Barry Sanders 2719

3 Jerome Bettis 2686

4 Walter Payton 2666

5 Curtis Martin 2604

6 Edgerrin James 2525

7 Eric Dickerson 2450

8 Eddie George 2421

9 Marshall Faulk 2367

10 Thurman Thomas 2285

11 LaDainian Tomlinson 2050

12 Earl Campbell 2029

13 Franco Harris 2012

14 O.J. Simpson 1997

15 Shaun Alexander 1969

I would not call a RB with thte 15th most carries at his age "low mileage." I wouldn't suggest that he's going to fall apart because of it (the other guys on this list all did pretty good). And for the record, LT is on the list through age 27.

Great information. What I find insightful about it is the company that SA is in. Did any of these guys stop running strong in their 30th year? My guess is that most went on for several more years of good service. Guys who are injury prone don't put up 2000 carries, period. Guys who can carry the ball 2000 yards are blessed with durable bodies and talent and so there is a good chance that they will get another 1000 carries.

Age 30 used to be thought of as the point where RBs started to break down and go to die. IMO, there have been enough 30 year old backs that have been successful that I would push the age concern to 31.There have only been 5 RB that were 32 or older that had 200 fantasy points in a season:

John Riggins 1983, 34, 281.60

Walter Payton 1986, 32, 237.50

Ottis Anderson 1989, 32, 213.10

John Riggins 1984, 35, 212.20

Mike Anderson 2005, 32, 200.60

That feat has been accomplished 12 times by players 31 or older (so 7 backs plus the 5 listed above) and 28 times by RB 30 or older.

 

[DWidmar]

I found this tid bit on Shaun's mileage and found it interesting as I assumed he had a ton more carries. I do think his O-Line will gel better this year especially with a healthy Alexander and Hasselback.

Alexander has Relatively Low Miles --

Tue May 29, 2007

The News-Tribune reports the big question is whether Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander can bounce back from his first injury-shortened season. He turns 30 in August, a bad number for most running backs. But when you assess the nature of his foot injury -- a cracked bone, not damage to a joint -- you probably aren't looking at anything chronic. We should also note that Alexander, never one to take much punishment, has fewer than 2,200 career regular-season touches. RB Walter Payton had about 4,300. RB Jerome Bettis and RB Marshall Faulk had more than 3,500. Ricky Watters had about 3,100. RB Edgerrin James has roughly 2,900. Alexander has relatively low miles, in other words. He should get back into the 1,200-yard and 15-touchdown range with a little help from his offensive line.

Most RB carries through age 29 . . .1 Emmitt Smith 2914

2 Barry Sanders 2719

3 Jerome Bettis 2686

4 Walter Payton 2666

5 Curtis Martin 2604

6 Edgerrin James 2525

7 Eric Dickerson 2450

8 Eddie George 2421

9 Marshall Faulk 2367

10 Thurman Thomas 2285

11 LaDainian Tomlinson 2050

12 Earl Campbell 2029

13 Franco Harris 2012

14 O.J. Simpson 1997

15 Shaun Alexander 1969

I would not call a RB with thte 15th most carries at his age "low mileage." I wouldn't suggest that he's going to fall apart because of it (the other guys on this list all did pretty good). And for the record, LT is on the list through age 27.

Thanks for the stats David, thats why I love these boards. I noticed that the stats you posted and the ones I posted were way different. I had originally assumed the ones I posted were career carries but in re-reading the stats it does say touches. Can you find the same stats with career touches. I would like to see where Alexander ranks in that set of stats. I dont think it will change my perceived value of him but it may change some peoples perceived value as some dont consider a catch the same as a carry. I have heard owners say a catch puts less wear and tear on the body of a RB therefore can prolong their career. To me he is still running hard and taking some kind of a hit so it is the same. I am thinking of trading Shaun now but then again I think he has a top 5 season this year and a top 10 season next year before he hits the wall. It's funny cuz I did trade LT after owning him for three years. I felt like he has had to many carries and touches and I should trade him while his value was as high as it will probably ever be, yet I acquired Alexander in another deal pretty cheap and for some odd reason I am trying to find a silver lining that whe will be solid for three more years. The irony of fantasy football. Thanks for your help with the stats David.

 

[David Yudkin]

If we open things up to include all touches, Alexander ranks 16th through age 29 so very little difference ranking wise . . .

 

[DWidmar]

If we open things up to include all touches, Alexander ranks 16th through age 29 so very little difference ranking wise . . .

Thanks David.

 

[bocksheesh]

Thought I'd bump this discussion as I think the downgrading of Shaun Alexander to be one of the more underrated developments in drafts this year.

As training camp opens, I'm interested to revisit what people think about Alexander, what the Seahawk OLine will look like this year (hopefully better than last season during the post-Hutchinson shock), whether that bone crack in his foot is fully healed, whether Hasselback is fully recovered, and what the Seattle offense will look like following the departure of DJackson et al.

Lots of questions!

I too agree that there's very little chance that Alexander will come close to matching his dominant 2005 campaign. But I also do think his demise has been greatly exaggerated.

 

[mad sweeney]

Thought I'd bump this discussion as I think the downgrading of Shaun Alexander to be one of the more underrated developments in drafts this year.As training camp opens, I'm interested to revisit what people think about Alexander, what the Seahawk OLine will look like this year (hopefully better than last season during the post-Hutchinson shock), whether that bone crack in his foot is fully healed, whether Hasselback is fully recovered, and what the Seattle offense will look like following the departure of DJackson et al.Lots of questions!I too agree that there's very little chance that Alexander will come close to matching his dominant 2005 campaign. But I also do think his demise has been greatly exaggerated.

The foot is fine. He played full speed in voluntary OTAs and the team did NOTHING to backup the position which makes it clear to me that all involved are worried about Alexander's foot as much as they are what I had for breakfast. Hass' recovery is way ahead of schedule and he also participated in OTAs and is spending extra time with Branch. The Oline will be improved with the last few year's worth of draft picks starting in the 3 middle slots. Chris Spencer learned all he could from probowler Tobeck and is ready to lead the line. The guard spots look solid. Jones is Jones, Strong is Strong, and Locklear will continue to improve at RT. One thing to look for in preseason is Leonard Weaver FB. He's a quick, big and punishing runner with a vicious stiff arm and good hands. 3rd downs could get interesting. At this point I would take him before I took LJ, if he fell to me at 6 or 7 I'd be ecstatic. I'm an admitted but I am also one of SA'a harshest critics.

 

[bocksheesh]

Thought I'd bump this discussion as I think the downgrading of Shaun Alexander to be one of the more underrated developments in drafts this year.As training camp opens, I'm interested to revisit what people think about Alexander, what the Seahawk OLine will look like this year (hopefully better than last season during the post-Hutchinson shock), whether that bone crack in his foot is fully healed, whether Hasselback is fully recovered, and what the Seattle offense will look like following the departure of DJackson et al.Lots of questions!I too agree that there's very little chance that Alexander will come close to matching his dominant 2005 campaign. But I also do think his demise has been greatly exaggerated.

The foot is fine. He played full speed in voluntary OTAs and the team did NOTHING to backup the position which makes it clear to me that all involved are worried about Alexander's foot as much as they are what I had for breakfast. Hass' recovery is way ahead of schedule and he also participated in OTAs and is spending extra time with Branch. The Oline will be improved with the last few year's worth of draft picks starting in the 3 middle slots. Chris Spencer learned all he could from probowler Tobeck and is ready to lead the line. The guard spots look solid. Jones is Jones, Strong is Strong, and Locklear will continue to improve at RT. One thing to look for in preseason is Leonard Weaver FB. He's a quick, big and punishing runner with a vicious stiff arm and good hands. 3rd downs could get interesting. At this point I would take him before I took LJ, if he fell to me at 6 or 7 I'd be ecstatic. I'm an admitted but I am also one of SA'a harshest critics.

You talk a lot about the improved OLine play. And it sounds like you're a Seahawk fan so you've followed the OLine closely.What is the primary difference between this year's OLine and last years? The OLine was just atrocious. I've never seen a line go from that dominant to that mediocre in one season. And as great as Hutchinson was for Seattle, it's still hard to believe that one player could make that big of a difference.But I for one think that 80% of the reason for Alexander's drop off last season was all about the OLine. People forget that even BEFORE Alexander got hurt last season, he was already struggling mightily behind the Hutchinson-less OLine.SO what gives?

 

[mad sweeney]

Thought I'd bump this discussion as I think the downgrading of Shaun Alexander to be one of the more underrated developments in drafts this year.As training camp opens, I'm interested to revisit what people think about Alexander, what the Seahawk OLine will look like this year (hopefully better than last season during the post-Hutchinson shock), whether that bone crack in his foot is fully healed, whether Hasselback is fully recovered, and what the Seattle offense will look like following the departure of DJackson et al.Lots of questions!I too agree that there's very little chance that Alexander will come close to matching his dominant 2005 campaign. But I also do think his demise has been greatly exaggerated.

The foot is fine. He played full speed in voluntary OTAs and the team did NOTHING to backup the position which makes it clear to me that all involved are worried about Alexander's foot as much as they are what I had for breakfast. Hass' recovery is way ahead of schedule and he also participated in OTAs and is spending extra time with Branch. The Oline will be improved with the last few year's worth of draft picks starting in the 3 middle slots. Chris Spencer learned all he could from probowler Tobeck and is ready to lead the line. The guard spots look solid. Jones is Jones, Strong is Strong, and Locklear will continue to improve at RT. One thing to look for in preseason is Leonard Weaver FB. He's a quick, big and punishing runner with a vicious stiff arm and good hands. 3rd downs could get interesting. At this point I would take him before I took LJ, if he fell to me at 6 or 7 I'd be ecstatic. I'm an admitted but I am also one of SA'a harshest critics.

You talk a lot about the improved OLine play. And it sounds like you're a Seahawk fan so you've followed the OLine closely.What is the primary difference between this year's OLine and last years? The OLine was just atrocious. I've never seen a line go from that dominant to that mediocre in one season. And as great as Hutchinson was for Seattle, it's still hard to believe that one player could make that big of a difference.But I for one think that 80% of the reason for Alexander's drop off last season was all about the OLine. People forget that even BEFORE Alexander got hurt last season, he was already struggling mightily behind the Hutchinson-less OLine.SO what gives?

Injury. With the exception of Walter Jones, (who got hurt by Shaun Rogers week 1 and was not his all universe self all season) no one started every game and they probably had 10 different combos throughout the season so they could never get any cohesion. Very rarely did the same 5 guys play together in back to back weeks. Centers were playing guard, guards were playing tackle, then centers went back to being centers. Guys would get hurt come back and get hurt again. It was a mess. And losing Hutch hurt more than I thought it would, though injuries could certainly explain that. On top of all of Seattle's injuries to the offense the whole O never had rrythym enough to get anything going. So even when SA was in, few were in top shape. I know injuries are a part of the game but every year 2-3 teams get hit hardest and we were one of them, losing a ridiculous number fo probowlers for long stretches. Jones will be healed up and dominant and next to him will be 2nd year guy Sims who got some experience last year and is looking good. Spencer will now have the mind game down more than last year now that he is the starter at center, he blew a lot of coverage calls last year but that should be gone with all the reps. He was panned for his performance at guard but he excels at center (Shick has documented some of Spencer's cener skills) RT Locklear is getting very good and shold shore the right end well. And it looks like rookie Willis will be the RG sooner or later. Chris Gray is still good and rookie Willis will be able to very ably back him up if anything should happen to Gray's 35 year old body. So just like everything, if they can stay healthy they'll be fine, SA will get his holes and Hass will have time to set up the run with Holmie's O. And again, if SA's foot was a problem the team would've done something about it in the off season. He ran for a good SA game in Chicago, bad weather against the best D and he's had 6 months since then to heal it. It is the most non factor topic of the year IMO and should he fall past 4-5 you'll get a bargain. Additionally, though I don't have the articles, in the OTA's where SA was first on the field and first to jump into drills, Holmgren said that they wanted to make SA the big RZ threat again as well as back into the passing game.

 

[PahtyTom]

950 and 7

 

[BigRed]

I agree that the injury and the OL issues are probably both exaggerated.

I also agree that I won't touch him with a 10' pole. While probably exaggerated, they still have to give pause, plus his age, plus questionable WRs, plus.......no thanks. I know every player minus LT has some ? mark or other, but I'd rather take a chance w/someone else.

Unless of course he really goes cheap.

 

[Edrondol]

I'm pretty high on SA for two reasons:

1) He was hurt last year and tried to struggle through, which speaks to his drive.

2) Everyone is steering clear of him, so I can potentially move down my slot for a higher pick in a later round and still nab him.

I think he's going to come back fairly strong, although I think he'll start out slow. Overall, I think he'll end up at around 335/1400/16, 25/350/1.

I just hope I'm right, cause I'm going to try and place myself low enough to get him for value.

-Dave

 

[lebowski]

I agree that the injury and the OL issues are probably both exaggerated.

I also agree that I won't touch him with a 10' pole. While probably exaggerated, they still have to give pause, plus his age, plus questionable WRs, plus.......no thanks. I know every player minus LT has some ? mark or other, but I'd rather take a chance w/someone else.

Unless of course he really goes cheap.

A year ago he was the safest pick in fantasy football and this year he is too risky? Sounds like an over compensation to me. As others have said, he won't repeat 2005, but I would take 2001, 2002, 2003, or 2004 stats. He is a stud who had a bad year last year. I would be ecstatic to get him around 6 to 8, however I have a feeling he will be moving up draft boards as training camp progresses. Besides LT and SJ who is more of a lock at this point. Gore just showed he is fragile again, LJ is holding out, Addai is only second year and had an important OL retire, Westbrook is an injury waiting to happen. Alexander is not just safe he is explosive and I would gladly take him after #2 (unless chiefs sign LJ).

 

[David Yudkin]

Just to refresh everyone's memory, Alexander averaged 14.8 fantasy ppg after upon his return after missing 6 games last year. Over a full season, that would work out to 237 fantasy points. That would have been good enough for a #8 ranking when he clearly was not 100%. While I agree he likely will not see numbers near what he had in 2005, I don't think he will fall off a cliff either.