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Player Spotlight: Shaun Alexander (1 Viewer)

Completely agree that Alexander is getting a raw deal.

He's not on the wrong side of 30 really. He'll just turn 30 in late August. And last year he got 1/2 the year off.

It is all about ceiling and floors.

Floor = 1250/100 and 12 TDs (makes complete sense to me as this is a bit better than Travis Henry's tear in Tenn last year, clearly Seattle is better and plays 6 games against SF, Zona and STL).

Ceiling = 1450/275 and 18 TDs (A conservative ceiling and still this puts him in top 4).

That's my thought. Seems like a non-risk player.

Absolutely no reason to take Gore before Alexander in a re-draft.

 
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1100, 9 TDs

I'm not drafting him in the first round.

* Their OL, a tremendous strength for years, is weak. Walter Jones is a HOFer but he's getting old. Robbie Tobeck retired. Chris Gray is finished. Ashworth, Locklear, etc are OK. SEA knew this because they threw big money at Kris Dielman but he turned them down.

* Mack Strong is finished. He missed a lot of blocks and SEA was actually more effective running without him than with him according to the Pro Football Prospectus.

* He's never been one for receiving yardage but 48 total yards last year? His receiving numbers are going the wrong way and that's one indicator of a RB starting his "over the hill" phase.

Older RBs coming off a serious injury with OL problems don't wow me.

EDIT: Full disclosure-I drafted Alexander #1 overall last year, choosing him at the last minute after planning to take LT for weeks. I don't think that this affects my analysis but you never know.

 
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mad sweeney said:
bocksheesh said:
Thought I'd bump this discussion as I think the downgrading of Shaun Alexander to be one of the more underrated developments in drafts this year.As training camp opens, I'm interested to revisit what people think about Alexander, what the Seahawk OLine will look like this year (hopefully better than last season during the post-Hutchinson shock), whether that bone crack in his foot is fully healed, whether Hasselback is fully recovered, and what the Seattle offense will look like following the departure of DJackson et al.Lots of questions!I too agree that there's very little chance that Alexander will come close to matching his dominant 2005 campaign. But I also do think his demise has been greatly exaggerated.
The foot is fine. He played full speed in voluntary OTAs and the team did NOTHING to backup the position which makes it clear to me that all involved are worried about Alexander's foot as much as they are what I had for breakfast. Hass' recovery is way ahead of schedule and he also participated in OTAs and is spending extra time with Branch. The Oline will be improved with the last few year's worth of draft picks starting in the 3 middle slots. Chris Spencer learned all he could from probowler Tobeck and is ready to lead the line. The guard spots look solid. Jones is Jones, Strong is Strong, and Locklear will continue to improve at RT. One thing to look for in preseason is Leonard Weaver FB. He's a quick, big and punishing runner with a vicious stiff arm and good hands. 3rd downs could get interesting. At this point I would take him before I took LJ, if he fell to me at 6 or 7 I'd be ecstatic. I'm an admitted :lmao: but I am also one of SA'a harshest critics.
You talk a lot about the improved OLine play. And it sounds like you're a Seahawk fan so you've followed the OLine closely.What is the primary difference between this year's OLine and last years? The OLine was just atrocious. I've never seen a line go from that dominant to that mediocre in one season. And as great as Hutchinson was for Seattle, it's still hard to believe that one player could make that big of a difference.But I for one think that 80% of the reason for Alexander's drop off last season was all about the OLine. People forget that even BEFORE Alexander got hurt last season, he was already struggling mightily behind the Hutchinson-less OLine.SO what gives?
Injury. With the exception of Walter Jones, (who got hurt by Shaun Rogers week 1 and was not his all universe self all season) no one started every game and they probably had 10 different combos throughout the season so they could never get any cohesion. Very rarely did the same 5 guys play together in back to back weeks. Centers were playing guard, guards were playing tackle, then centers went back to being centers. Guys would get hurt come back and get hurt again. It was a mess. And losing Hutch hurt more than I thought it would, though injuries could certainly explain that. On top of all of Seattle's injuries to the offense the whole O never had rrythym enough to get anything going. So even when SA was in, few were in top shape. I know injuries are a part of the game but every year 2-3 teams get hit hardest and we were one of them, losing a ridiculous number fo probowlers for long stretches. Jones will be healed up and dominant and next to him will be 2nd year guy Sims who got some experience last year and is looking good. Spencer will now have the mind game down more than last year now that he is the starter at center, he blew a lot of coverage calls last year but that should be gone with all the reps. He was panned for his performance at guard but he excels at center (Shick has documented some of Spencer's cener skills) RT Locklear is getting very good and shold shore the right end well. And it looks like rookie Willis will be the RG sooner or later. Chris Gray is still good and rookie Willis will be able to very ably back him up if anything should happen to Gray's 35 year old body. So just like everything, if they can stay healthy they'll be fine, SA will get his holes and Hass will have time to set up the run with Holmie's O. And again, if SA's foot was a problem the team would've done something about it in the off season. He ran for a good SA game in Chicago, bad weather against the best D and he's had 6 months since then to heal it. It is the most non factor topic of the year IMO and should he fall past 4-5 you'll get a bargain. Additionally, though I don't have the articles, in the OTA's where SA was first on the field and first to jump into drills, Holmgren said that they wanted to make SA the big RZ threat again as well as back into the passing game.
:shrug: :lmao: :lmao:
 
Wanted to bump this thread, because I haven't seen too much discussion on Alexander lately. After adjusting some of my rankings lately I have Alexander at #3, behind only Jackson and LT. I'm under the firm belief that last year was a fluke rather than a sign he is on the downside of his career. Also, I haven't heard ANYTHING with the opening of training camp about him. To me this is good news and everything must be OK with his foot or you would have heard a lot more by now. What do you guys think? Have you heard any news lately?

 
Wanted to bump this thread, because I haven't seen too much discussion on Alexander lately. After adjusting some of my rankings lately I have Alexander at #3, behind only Jackson and LT. I'm under the firm belief that last year was a fluke rather than a sign he is on the downside of his career. Also, I haven't heard ANYTHING with the opening of training camp about him. To me this is good news and everything must be OK with his foot or you would have heard a lot more by now. What do you guys think? Have you heard any news lately?
Reports at camp have him as stronger and faster than ever in camp and looking to make up for last year. Practicing full speed and having zero problems with the foot. All the ridiculous talk of his foot being a problem is going to make some mid-round drafters very lucky.
 
Wanted to bump this thread, because I haven't seen too much discussion on Alexander lately. After adjusting some of my rankings lately I have Alexander at #3, behind only Jackson and LT. I'm under the firm belief that last year was a fluke rather than a sign he is on the downside of his career. Also, I haven't heard ANYTHING with the opening of training camp about him. To me this is good news and everything must be OK with his foot or you would have heard a lot more by now. What do you guys think? Have you heard any news lately?
Reports at camp have him as stronger and faster than ever in camp and looking to make up for last year. Practicing full speed and having zero problems with the foot. All the ridiculous talk of his foot being a problem is going to make some mid-round drafters very lucky.
Thanks for the update!
 
People worry too much about downside risk at the top of the draft. The goal is to win your league, not to avoid being embarassed by your first-round pick. And the most direct path to victory is getting a few players who turn in huge seasons. Consider Alexander's comparison cohort: Alexander, Gore, Addai, Parker, Westbrook, Rudi J. Which of those players has the best chance of scoring 18 touchdowns? I think there's no question it's Alexander: he's the only one who's done it before, he's done it three times, and the last time was just two seasons ago.

Of course, he could be worse than all of those other guys, for all the reasons everyone has discussed. I just think it's losing strategy to focus on those. If your team is unlucky, you won't win anyway. You need to evaluate players under the assumption that they are going to reach their optimistic projections, and then hope that enough of the guys you pick do so.

Upside projection: 1800 yfs, 20 TDs

Downside projection: as bad as you want

Average projection: 1300 yfs, 13 TDs

 
The one thing I don't like about Alexander is his schedule in fantasy playoffs...Carolina and Baltimore. That hurts his value IMO.

 
I'd like to see some more commentary on SA for this season. I have the #7 pick in an upcoming draft and am wondering if I should take SA over possibly Addai, Parker or Westbrook... RB only get 1/2 PPR

 
Just picked him up at 2.02 in a 12 team redraft to pair up with Travis Henry. :banned:

Gotta love those guppies.

:X

 
He's going to be 30 when the season starts. That's typically the age that Running backs begin to slow down.
I think we've been through this many, many times on these boards. RBs don't start to break down at age 30, I think the numbers show that it's more like 31 (I believe someone did a study). But here are a few examples of players who have had good season's at the age of 30 (and beyond) the past few years.Curtis Martin (age 30): 323 1308 4.0 2 | 42 262 6.2 0 Curtis Martin (age 31): 371 1697 4.6 12 | 41 245 6.0 2 Tiki Barber (age 30): 357 1860 5.2 9 | 54 530 9.8 2 Tiki Barber (age 31): 327 1662 5.1 5 | 58 465 8.0 0 Priest Holmes (age 30): 320 1420 4.4 27 | 74 690 9.3 0 Corey Dillon (age 30): 345 1635 4.7 12 | 15 103 6.9 1|
 
He's going to be 30 when the season starts. That's typically the age that Running backs begin to slow down.
I think we've been through this many, many times on these boards. RBs don't start to break down at age 30, I think the numbers show that it's more like 31 (I believe someone did a study). But here are a few examples of players who have had good season's at the age of 30 (and beyond) the past few years.Curtis Martin (age 30): 323 1308 4.0 2 | 42 262 6.2 0 Curtis Martin (age 31): 371 1697 4.6 12 | 41 245 6.0 2 Tiki Barber (age 30): 357 1860 5.2 9 | 54 530 9.8 2 Tiki Barber (age 31): 327 1662 5.1 5 | 58 465 8.0 0 Priest Holmes (age 30): 320 1420 4.4 27 | 74 690 9.3 0 Corey Dillon (age 30): 345 1635 4.7 12 | 15 103 6.9 1|
And theres many more examples of guys that broke down before 30 with sharp sudden declines...Thurman thomasChris WarrenCurt WarnerTerry AllenRodney HamptonEric Dickersonjamal LewisEdgeEddie GeorgeStephen DavisJoe MorrisRoger CraigI see Alexander's next couple of years going the same way that most people on this list ended their careers.
 
He's going to be 30 when the season starts. That's typically the age that Running backs begin to slow down.
I think we've been through this many, many times on these boards. RBs don't start to break down at age 30, I think the numbers show that it's more like 31 (I believe someone did a study). But here are a few examples of players who have had good season's at the age of 30 (and beyond) the past few years.Curtis Martin (age 30): 323 1308 4.0 2 | 42 262 6.2 0 Curtis Martin (age 31): 371 1697 4.6 12 | 41 245 6.0 2 Tiki Barber (age 30): 357 1860 5.2 9 | 54 530 9.8 2 Tiki Barber (age 31): 327 1662 5.1 5 | 58 465 8.0 0 Priest Holmes (age 30): 320 1420 4.4 27 | 74 690 9.3 0 Corey Dillon (age 30): 345 1635 4.7 12 | 15 103 6.9 1|
And theres many more examples of guys that broke down before 30 with sharp sudden declines...Thurman thomasChris WarrenCurt WarnerTerry AllenRodney HamptonEric Dickersonjamal LewisEdgeEddie GeorgeStephen DavisJoe MorrisRoger CraigI see Alexander's next couple of years going the same way that most people on this list ended their careers.
Keep it recent. Anything prior to 2000 is ancient history. The medical advances and improvements in training and nutrition are already radically better than when the likes of Roger Craig and Joe Morris played. Back then an ACL would have been an almost certain career ender, now it's just an 8 or 9 month rehab.Plus, Jamal Lewis is 2 months older than LT and Edge doesn't turn 30 this year. So I can't say with confidence that age is a factor in their decline. I think more with Edge might be supporting cast, and I don't think Jamal Lewis was very talented to begin with.
 
Predicting him to play in 16 games and still do worse than last season is absurd. The guy just turned 30. I think you are sorely mistaken and I don't even like him that much lol.

 
850yds 6 TDs

15rec 90yds
So you are predicting injury for him again? magical...
Not sure where you inferred that from. Im predicting ineffectiveness on 1st and 2nd down leading to carries going elsewhere. And he already comes out on 3rd downs.

This should be recognizable to Seattle fans. Same as Warren. Steep decline followed by carries to Lamar Smith.
And who would those carries go to? the guy that was highly ineffective last season in SA's absence?
 
:wall:

Considering that SA signed his biggest contract only a couple of years ago, I can definitely see him scubbing it up so that he doesn't get his money on the back end...

Right?

:no:

 
Keep it recent. Anything prior to 2000 is ancient history. The medical advances and improvements in training and nutrition are already radically better than when the likes of Roger Craig and Joe Morris played. Back then an ACL would have been an almost certain career ender, now it's just an 8 or 9 month rehab.

Plus, Jamal Lewis is 2 months older than LT and Edge doesn't turn 30 this year. So I can't say with confidence that age is a factor in their decline. I think more with Edge might be supporting cast, and I don't think Jamal Lewis was very talented to begin with.

1. I was trying to compare RBs that had success over 4-5yrs rather than guys like Gary Brown or Adrian Murrell who werent good enough long enough to compare. Given that, there isnt enough to compare from just 2000 as I cant look at anyone that came into the NFL after 2003. I can understand throwing away Craig/Morris but the RBs from the 90s are good comparisons.

2. For the very reason that traetments/procedures have improved I purposely chose RBs whose careers didnt end because of injuries. It would be misleading to use guys like Terrel Davis/Jamal Anderson and say that tehy declined before 30.

As I see it, there is plenty of history of players that are really good for a few years and then in their late 20s for no apparent reason suddenly arent as productive as they used to be. Its often the difference between being a hall of famer and being a pretty good player. Alexander looks to me like a player on the decline in the same mold as the players mentioned. In Alexanders 10 games last year he only had over 3.5yds a carry twice (and neither were before his injury). In 2005 he only had 2 games below 3.5. To me that says "watch out - huge decline". in addition his receptions and receiving yards have declined every year since 2002 and avg per catch was down to 5.2 and 4.0 the last years.

I'm not saying theres a magic age that theres a decline. It is different for everybody. Im not trying to say he's 30 (tomorrow) so poof he will not be as good. there are plenty of examples of players whose decline happened when they were 30 or 31 or older. I'm just saying I see the parallels between his decline and many many others. It happens with no explanation. Just look at the stats of all of the players I mentioned. It looks to me like he's declining regardless of his age.

 
Predicting him to play in 16 games and still do worse than last season is absurd. The guy just turned 30. I think you are sorely mistaken and I don't even like him that much lol.
He turns 30 tomorrow. He's 4 1/2 years younger than Martin, who beat Alexander by 1 yard to be the #1 rusher in the league 3 years ago. I've never seen anyone's stock fall faster than SA's, ever. He went from consistent 1500+/16+ to outsville because of one season where the entire offense was hurt, including the first time SA ever missed a game for injury . An offense that sent 6 players to the probowl the previous year (5 starters). I'm no SA fan, in fact I wanted Chester Taylor last year instead of SA for the Hawks, but his drop in value is absolutely mind boggling to me. I think his floor is 1250/13 with top 5 potential. I am NOT concerned about his health, nor is the team considering they made absolutely no moves to insure themselves against him getting hurt. Which makes me think that they are convinced he is healthy and ready to be the SA of the last 5 years, except for one aberration season. Meanwhile guys who have been injured more than once and never produced Alexander-like seasons more than once are ranked higher than him. Oh well, remind me how bad he's supposed to be again in December.
 
Keep it recent. Anything prior to 2000 is ancient history. The medical advances and improvements in training and nutrition are already radically better than when the likes of Roger Craig and Joe Morris played. Back then an ACL would have been an almost certain career ender, now it's just an 8 or 9 month rehab.

Plus, Jamal Lewis is 2 months older than LT and Edge doesn't turn 30 this year. So I can't say with confidence that age is a factor in their decline. I think more with Edge might be supporting cast, and I don't think Jamal Lewis was very talented to begin with.

1. I was trying to compare RBs that had success over 4-5yrs rather than guys like Gary Brown or Adrian Murrell who werent good enough long enough to compare. Given that, there isnt enough to compare from just 2000 as I cant look at anyone that came into the NFL after 2003. I can understand throwing away Craig/Morris but the RBs from the 90s are good comparisons.

2. For the very reason that traetments/procedures have improved I purposely chose RBs whose careers didnt end because of injuries. It would be misleading to use guys like Terrel Davis/Jamal Anderson and say that tehy declined before 30.

As I see it, there is plenty of history of players that are really good for a few years and then in their late 20s for no apparent reason suddenly arent as productive as they used to be. Its often the difference between being a hall of famer and being a pretty good player. Alexander looks to me like a player on the decline in the same mold as the players mentioned. In Alexanders 10 games last year he only had over 3.5yds a carry twice (and neither were before his injury). In 2005 he only had 2 games below 3.5. To me that says "watch out - huge decline". in addition his receptions and receiving yards have declined every year since 2002 and avg per catch was down to 5.2. and 4.0 the last years.

I'm not saying theres a magic age that theres a decline. It is different for everybody. Im not trying to say he's 30 (tomorrow) so poof he will not be as good. there are plenty of examples of players whose decline happened when they were 30 or 31 or older. I'm just saying I see the parallels between his decline and many many others. It happens with no explanation. Just look at the stats of all of the players I mentioned. It looks to me like he's declining regardless of his age.
He was injured early in the game week 1 in Detroit and played on it for 2 more games before sitting out. There were no pre-injury games.
 
Predicting him to play in 16 games and still do worse than last season is absurd. The guy just turned 30. I think you are sorely mistaken and I don't even like him that much lol.
I think Seattle will be losing most games and not in running situations so their attempts will be down drastically. Plus Alexander doesnt play 3rd downs (and since they'll be playing from behind he will be off the field a lot) I see Alexander having less carries as ineffectiveness and 3rd downs will go elsewhere (I'd forecast 230 carries at 3.7 yds per carry).
 
Predicting him to play in 16 games and still do worse than last season is absurd. The guy just turned 30. I think you are sorely mistaken and I don't even like him that much lol.
He turns 30 tomorrow. He's 4 1/2 years younger than Martin, who beat Alexander by 1 yard to be the #1 rusher in the league 3 years ago. I've never seen anyone's stock fall faster than SA's, ever. He went from consistent 1500+/16+ to outsville because of one season where the entire offense was hurt, including the first time SA ever missed a game for injury . An offense that sent 6 players to the probowl the previous year (5 starters). I'm no SA fan, in fact I wanted Chester Taylor last year instead of SA for the Hawks, but his drop in value is absolutely mind boggling to me. I think his floor is 1250/13 with top 5 potential. I am NOT concerned about his health, nor is the team considering they made absolutely no moves to insure themselves against him getting hurt. Which makes me think that they are convinced he is healthy and ready to be the SA of the last 5 years, except for one aberration season. Meanwhile guys who have been injured more than once and never produced Alexander-like seasons more than once are ranked higher than him. Oh well, remind me how bad he's supposed to be again in December.
:thumbup:
 
Honeslty I have seen him drop to the rear of round 1 more than once now - and have let it happen myself in favor of people I liked more who slipped - but I have a feeling we are undervaluing SA alot this year. If his foot is OK, I think he could have a bounce back season. He may be aging but I think he could have one more season left.

That said, I didn't think that much of him since I passed on him this weekend. FWIW

 
Doesn't anyone like Shaun Alexanders prospects this year? (I did see LHUCKS writeup on him as under rated)

Is this just a bunch of viral pessimism, perhaps sparked by PFP's prediction of a bust year by Shaun, or is everyone just coming to the same conclusion?

And with all of this pessimism, how is it that SA is still being drafted in the top 6 on average?

I saw game 3 of the preseason, and he looked fine...

 
850yds 6 TDs

15rec 90yds
So you are predicting injury for him again? magical...
Not sure where you inferred that from. Im predicting ineffectiveness on 1st and 2nd down leading to carries going elsewhere. And he already comes out on 3rd downs.

This should be recognizable to Seattle fans. Same as Warren. Steep decline followed by carries to Lamar Smith.
And who would those carries go to? the guy that was highly ineffective last season in SA's absence?
Morris, Weeks, Scobey...Whoever they have..Who was Rudi Johnson before Dillon went down? Mike Anderson? Olandis Gary? Who was Lamar Smith, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber? Guys come out of nowhere all the time.

Since I see Alexander as having a 3.7 avg it is easy for me to forsee Morris, Weeks, or Scobee being just as or more effective. Im not saying any of them will ever be 1000yd RBs but they could get carries this year as Alexanders decline forces Seattle to think about drafting another RB next year.

 
Since I see Alexander as having a 3.7 avg it is easy for me to forsee Morris, Weeks, or Scobee being just as or more effective.
Yeah Maurice had that blistering 3.8 ypc average last year in 8 starts, no touchdowns either. Did I mention he DIDN'T have a broken foot?Answer me this:Name me all the running backs who completely broke down the season after they put up 108 yards for a 4.2 ypc and 2 tds against the best defense in the NFL in the last game they played the previous season.I don't know if it's worth considering along with that but he also put up 140/2 for a 4.5 ypc against the #9 rush defense a couple of weeks prior to that as well.Stick a fork in him.
 
And despite those 2 games at the end of last season, against great defenses, somehow with 6 months rest his foot and age are more of a concern than it was then.

 
WarRedbirds said:
Doesn't anyone like Shaun Alexanders prospects this year?
Seems like folks are rather equally split to me. :thumbup: I project him to RB3 in non-PPR and expect a return to 20+ tds. Rob Sims is a beast next to Walter Jones. He will adequately replace the beast they lost. The center play will be improved. The right side of the OL is strong. I see no reason to predict another season out of sync and marred by injury like last year. He went for over 200 yards in a game last year while out of shape and still not 100%. He ripped the Chargers for 140 and 2 TDs when the Bolts were playing for home field advantage. He was better than Tomlinson that day. Went over 100 yards with 2 more TDs against the Bears in the conference title game. I'd sooner move him ahead of Jackson to RB2 than move him down to RB4.
 
To commish is my wish said:
The one thing I don't like about Alexander is his schedule in fantasy playoffs...Carolina and Baltimore. That hurts his value IMO.
I had the same fear in my Championship Game last year, Week 16 against the Chargers defense. SA didn't do too badly:http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxscore?gam...&week=REG16
Only worry about those kinds of things with lesser players. Alexander has had huge games against top Ds for many years. I'd be hesitant to draft Carolina or Baltimore knowing they face SA in the fantasy playoffs than visa versa. :thumbup:
 
Alexander has an equal shot at bieng the top rb as Jackson or LT. SJAx has done it for exactly one year and now his top wr is injured and their is now more film to study on him. LT is a great player but was consistenly outscroed by Alexander every year prior. Its a huge mistake to write of SA this year. I see Alexander regaining his MVP form to the tune of 350 1700 17 25 200 2

 
Completely agree that Alexander is getting a raw deal.

He's not on the wrong side of 30 really. He'll just turn 30 in late August. And last year he got 1/2 the year off.

It is all about ceiling and floors.

Floor = 1250/100 and 12 TDs (makes complete sense to me as this is a bit better than Travis Henry's tear in Tenn last year, clearly Seattle is better and plays 6 games against SF, Zona and STL).

Ceiling = 1450/275 and 18 TDs (A conservative ceiling and still this puts him in top 4).

That's my thought. Seems like a non-risk player.

Absolutely no reason to take Gore before Alexander in a re-draft.
I like Alexander, but I'm not sure I would set his floor that high. The entire Seahawk team had a total of 8 rushing TDs last season. Granted, Alexander was out for 6 games and less than healthy for some others, but I would still be reluctant to predict a 50% increase in TD production as the floor.
 
Completely agree that Alexander is getting a raw deal.

He's not on the wrong side of 30 really. He'll just turn 30 in late August. And last year he got 1/2 the year off.

It is all about ceiling and floors.

Floor = 1250/100 and 12 TDs (makes complete sense to me as this is a bit better than Travis Henry's tear in Tenn last year, clearly Seattle is better and plays 6 games against SF, Zona and STL).

Ceiling = 1450/275 and 18 TDs (A conservative ceiling and still this puts him in top 4).

That's my thought. Seems like a non-risk player.

Absolutely no reason to take Gore before Alexander in a re-draft.
I like Alexander, but I'm not sure I would set his floor that high. The entire Seahawk team had a total of 8 rushing TDs last season. Granted, Alexander was out for 6 games and less than healthy for some others, but I would still be reluctant to predict a 50% increase in TD production as the floor.
The ENTIRE offense was hurt last year, not just SA. Not just the skill guys either. A patchwork OL, Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris aren't going to score much. The floor/ceiling looks pretty good to me.
 
To commish is my wish said:
The one thing I don't like about Alexander is his schedule in fantasy playoffs...Carolina and Baltimore. That hurts his value IMO.
I had the same fear in my Championship Game last year, Week 16 against the Chargers defense. SA didn't do too badly:http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxscore?gam...&week=REG16
Only worry about those kinds of things with lesser players. Alexander has had huge games against top Ds for many years. I'd be hesitant to draft Carolina or Baltimore knowing they face SA in the fantasy playoffs than visa versa. :sadbanana:
Interesting perspective, one I hadn't thought of.
 
anguskahn said:
texasheat said:
anguskahn said:
texasheat said:
anguskahn said:
850yds 6 TDs

15rec 90yds
So you are predicting injury for him again? magical...
Not sure where you inferred that from. Im predicting ineffectiveness on 1st and 2nd down leading to carries going elsewhere. And he already comes out on 3rd downs.

This should be recognizable to Seattle fans. Same as Warren. Steep decline followed by carries to Lamar Smith.
And who would those carries go to? the guy that was highly ineffective last season in SA's absence?
Morris, Weeks, Scobey...Whoever they have..Who was Rudi Johnson before Dillon went down? Mike Anderson? Olandis Gary? Who was Lamar Smith, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber? Guys come out of nowhere all the time.

Since I see Alexander as having a 3.7 avg it is easy for me to forsee Morris, Weeks, or Scobee being just as or more effective. Im not saying any of them will ever be 1000yd RBs but they could get carries this year as Alexanders decline forces Seattle to think about drafting another RB next year.
I am down on Alexander this year as well but dude

You are CLUELESS. I think you are :sadbanana: though. But if your not you really have no clue what your talking about.

 
Completely agree that Alexander is getting a raw deal.

He's not on the wrong side of 30 really. He'll just turn 30 in late August. And last year he got 1/2 the year off.

It is all about ceiling and floors.

Floor = 1250/100 and 12 TDs (makes complete sense to me as this is a bit better than Travis Henry's tear in Tenn last year, clearly Seattle is better and plays 6 games against SF, Zona and STL).

Ceiling = 1450/275 and 18 TDs (A conservative ceiling and still this puts him in top 4).

That's my thought. Seems like a non-risk player.

Absolutely no reason to take Gore before Alexander in a re-draft.
I like Alexander, but I'm not sure I would set his floor that high. The entire Seahawk team had a total of 8 rushing TDs last season. Granted, Alexander was out for 6 games and less than healthy for some others, but I would still be reluctant to predict a 50% increase in TD production as the floor.
The ENTIRE offense was hurt last year, not just SA. Not just the skill guys either. A patchwork OL, Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris aren't going to score much. The floor/ceiling looks pretty good to me.
I'm glad you're happy with them, but I would ask how you define "floor". Maybe I'm off on this, but a player's rushing-TD "floor" (i.e. lowest realistic TD production) should not be 150% of the entire team's rushing-TD total from the previous season.
 
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I'm glad you're happy with them, but I would ask how you define "floor". Maybe I'm off on this, but a player's rushing-TD "floor" (i.e. lowest realistic TD production) should not be 150% of the entire team's rushing-TD total from the previous season.
Alexander had 7 TDs in 10 games played last year. If you prorate that for 16 games it comes out to 11.2 TDs on the season. It doesn't seem like 12 TDs is such an outrageous floor given that. It's even less outrageous when you consider that other than last year the only time in Alexander's career in which he got less than 14 TDs rushing, less than 16 TDs total was his rookie season, in which he got 69 touches total and scored only 2 TDs.
 
Gr00vus said:
anguskahn said:
Since I see Alexander as having a 3.7 avg it is easy for me to forsee Morris, Weeks, or Scobee being just as or more effective.
Yeah Maurice had that blistering 3.8 ypc average last year in 8 starts, no touchdowns either. Did I mention he DIDN'T have a broken foot?Answer me this:Name me all the running backs who completely broke down the season after they put up 108 yards for a 4.2 ypc and 2 tds against the best defense in the NFL in the last game they played the previous season.I don't know if it's worth considering along with that but he also put up 140/2 for a 4.5 ypc against the #9 rush defense a couple of weeks prior to that as well.Stick a fork in him.
Answer me this:Name me 1 RB whose avg per carry dropped 1.5yds and then rushed for 1000yds the next year.
 
Answer me this:Name me 1 RB whose avg per carry dropped 1.5yds and then rushed for 1000yds the next year.
One who didn't have a broken foot the previous season or one who did?
What is Alexander the first RB to ever get injured? find me any, injured or not injured.
Name me 1 RB who suffered an identical injury to Alexander and whose offensive line suffered the same injuries as Alexander's whose avg per carry didn't drop 1.5 yards. Thanks.
 
Answer me this:

Name me 1 RB whose avg per carry dropped 1.5yds and then rushed for 1000yds the next year.
One who didn't have a broken foot the previous season or one who did?
Anyway - here's one. No broken foot though, and he actually dropped 1.7 ypc and then rushed for over 1500 yards the following year.This one only had a .9 ypc drop and then came back to put up over 1300, but I'm sure there was an injury there.

I got Muncie backward, so I owe you another one....let's see...

Well this guy only dropped 1.3 ypc but still managed to put up a few 1000 yard plus seasons after.

This guy only dropped 1.4 ypc, but also still put up a few 1000 yard plus seasons after.

This guy only dropped 1.1 and put up 3 more seasons of 1000 plus rushing.

I'll finish with this guy He had a 1.4 ypc drop, somehow he muddles through though....

Last year with a broken foot/recovering from a broken foot Alexander put up .8 less than his career ypc.

I'd go on, but you don't really have a point and I've got other stuff to do.

 
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Answer me this:Name me 1 RB whose avg per carry dropped 1.5yds and then rushed for 1000yds the next year.
One who didn't have a broken foot the previous season or one who did?
What is Alexander the first RB to ever get injured? find me any, injured or not injured.
Name me 1 RB who suffered an identical injury to Alexander and whose offensive line suffered the same injuries as Alexander's whose avg per carry didn't drop 1.5 yards. Thanks.
sounds like everyone has a whole lot of excuses. keep rationalizing. keep the blinders on.
 

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