Player Spotlight: Steve Smith (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Last year's numbers for reference:

103/1563/12

15.2 ypc average

The addition of Keyshawn helps in the ypc and td numbers, I believe. It most likely takes some catches away, so there's a loss to the PPR crowd.

Less catches, same rough number of yards, more tds = as much, if not more of a stud than he was last year.

90-1500-15

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Question: Do you think Smith's role as primary kickoff/punt returner affects his numbers at all? Has anything happened in the off-season to bring in someone else to perform this role?

Everytime I see a star player like Smith being forced to perform special teams duties, it makes me cringe. I don't wanna see him hurt returning a kick when there are plenty of young and eager players to fill that role.

As for Smith's performance this year: nothing seems to stop this guy! I expect solidly over 1200 yards and 12 TDs

 

[Blackjacks]

I think Smith comes down to earth alittle with more options to work with this year.

The addition of Keyshawn, Carter getting alittle more experience and Colbert still in place. Plus add in Williams in the running game with Foster and I think Smith's #'s look more like this this year.

97 catches

1450 yards

9 td's

should still be good for top 5

 

[BassNBrew]

Honestly I don't have a clue. Smith has the talent to be the best in the league for the next 3 years. My gut tells me he falls back, but this guy has a "Rice" like attitude and may just be hitting his stride. Really need to watch a couple of pre-season games to nail this down.

88-1350-8 for now.

 

[Synthesizer]

Week after week we heard the same thing.... since S.Smith is the entire Carolina passing game, why don't teams double team him and roll coverage his way. Well guess what, teams were doing that. And S.Smith still found ways to make plays. Heck, in 3 playoff games against good opponents he totaled 27 catches, 373 total yards, and 4 total TDs. And that was with plenty of attention from those defenses.

He's the safest WR pick heading into this year. Plenty of questions about C.Johnson, Owens, and Moss situations. Holt and Fitzgerald are pretty safe as well but just aren't on the same level as Smith at this point. Anyway, more of the same for S.Smith this year. Keyshawn puts up his regular 800 yards and 6 TDs but Smith still puts up 95 catches, 1400 yards, 13 TDs.

 

[drlynn]

I think Steve is going to have, probably not quite as good a year as last season, due to Keyshawn taking some balls away, especially on 3rd and mid-to-long range.

But Jake has been very vocal about knowing who the man is, so I think Steve will still get his numbers. Also some talk around here of KJ lead-blocking for Steve on the lateral pass Jake threw him so much last season, which should help his yardage #'s if they do work that wrinkle in.

Anyway, I'm looking for 97-1450-11

 

[cscmtp]

93 catches, 1683 yards, 18 TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

In a standard scoring league, Smith scored 237 points last year--the 20th best fantasy season for a WR. Only 2 WR did better the following year--Rice did it 3 times (once back to back to back) and Harrison accomplished this once. I'd be inclined to take the "under" even if nothing changed.

IMO, the Panthers stay healthier at RB and establish much more of a ground attack compared to the last 2 years that produced the #1 fantasy WR each year. The defense also appears solid and healthy (for now), and if that stays a constant it also plays into running the ball to control the clock. Keyshawn also has been added and will take some targets and production away.

90-1250-10 receiving, 40 yards and 1 TD rushing. 195 total points. Still Top 5.

 

[BassNBrew]

93 catches, 1683 yards, 18 TDs.

 

[diesel7982]

If Smith catches 100 passes again, their team has failed on both sides of the ball.

An improved running game, OL, WR core and Defense should limit the amount of offense Smith has to carry.

90-1250-8

 

[Rev]

If Smith catches 100 passes again, their team has failed on both sides of the ball.An improved running game, OL, WR core and Defense should limit the amount of offense Smith has to carry.

90-1250-8

It is in the Panther's best interests to get the ball in Smith's hands as often as possible, which is why they have him playing special teams. In this way, Smith is the NFL's version of Reggie Bush, an exposive player who simply needs touches.

Smith's gamebreaking ability means that the Panthers can count on longer, more sustained drives and more holes in a defensive that is scrambling to roll coverage in Smith's direction, which means more opportunities for everyone. Thus, as Smith touches the ball more, the Panthers offense will resemble a snowball rolling down a hill. Now, with Keyshawn in town and a solid RB core, they could be the most explosive unit in the league.

Delhomme's tendency to focus miopically on a single WR shouldn't be an issue with the resurgence of talent on the offensive unit.

 

[nag']

It is in the Panther's best interests to get the ball in Smith's hands as often as possible, which is why they have him playing special teams.

I agree with this statement. Steve Smith is not as much a product of the system as the system plays off Smith's immense ability. The Panthers may try to spread the ball around more with the new additions on the offense but Smith will still get the necessary touches to be a Top 5 stud. It's in the Panther's best interest that he does.92 - 1400 - 11

 

[diesel7982]

If Smith catches 100 passes again, their team has failed on both sides of the ball.An improved running game, OL, WR core and Defense should limit the amount of offense Smith has to carry.

90-1250-8

It is in the Panther's best interests to get the ball in Smith's hands as often as possible, which is why they have him playing special teams. In this way, Smith is the NFL's version of Reggie Bush, an exposive player who simply needs touches.

Smith's gamebreaking ability means that the Panthers can count on longer, more sustained drives and more holes in a defensive that is scrambling to roll coverage in Smith's direction, which means more opportunities for everyone. Thus, as Smith touches the ball more, the Panthers offense will resemble a snowball rolling down a hill. Now, with Keyshawn in town and a solid RB core, they could be the most explosive unit in the league.

Delhomme's tendency to focus miopically on a single WR shouldn't be an issue with the resurgence of talent on the offensive unit.

I would competely and utterly disagree with nearly every point there. In a perfect world, yes, let Smith touch the ball every play. In reality, if Smith is catching 100-110 passes again this year, they'll be getting bounced out of the playoffs again.

 

[nag']

I would competely and utterly disagree with nearly every point there. In a perfect world, yes, let Smith touch the ball every play. In reality, if Smith is catching 100-110 passes again this year, they'll be getting bounced out of the playoffs again.

You "completely and utterly" disagree with that guy's suggestion that the Panthers would want Smith to again be the focal point of the offense and to get the ball into his hands as often as possible yet you project him for 90 receptions. That doesn't sound like "complete and utter" disagreement to me. Maybe a slight difference of opinion.Also, the Panthers may in fact, get bounced from the playoffs if Smith "catching 100-110 passes again this year". This can prove to be an accurate statement but I don't think it also means that Smith won't get those 100-110 passes nevertheless. Has Fox suggested that Smith's involvement in the offense is to the detriment of the team's success and that he will try to change it for 2006?Btw, I don't think a team that wins 2 playoff ROAD games and loses in the Conference finals should be referred to as being "bounced" from the playoffs. Just imho.

 

[Bird]

Honestly I don't have a clue. Smith has the talent to be the best in the league for the next 3 years. My gut tells me he falls back, but this guy has a "Rice" like attitude and may just be hitting his stride. Really need to watch a couple of pre-season games to nail this down.

88-1350-8 for now.

BnB is "THEE" opinion I adhere to when discussing Panther football but I feel with the lack of a power running game(please don't mention Shelton)that Smith is good for double-digit TDs.94/1365/10

 

[Rev]

I would competely and utterly disagree with nearly every point there. In a perfect world, yes, let Smith touch the ball every play. In reality, if Smith is catching 100-110 passes again this year, they'll be getting bounced out of the playoffs again.

You "completely and utterly" disagree with that guy's suggestion that the Panthers would want Smith to again be the focal point of the offense and to get the ball into his hands as often as possible yet you project him for 90 receptions. That doesn't sound like "complete and utter" disagreement to me. Maybe a slight difference of opinion.Also, the Panthers may in fact, get bounced from the playoffs if Smith "catching 100-110 passes again this year". This can prove to be an accurate statement but I don't think it also means that Smith won't get those 100-110 passes nevertheless. Has Fox suggested that Smith's involvement in the offense is to the detriment of the team's success and that he will try to change it for 2006?

Btw, I don't think a team that wins 2 playoff ROAD games and loses in the Conference finals should be referred to as being "bounced" from the playoffs. Just imho.

You're right on here, nag. It's just not appropriate to downgrade a team upon which a star receiver nets 100-110 catches. On the contrary, it is appropriate to downgrade a teams chances if they do not get the ball in the hands of such a playmaker. It's quite possible to get Steve Smith alot of catches while involving other players in the offense, because Smith is a player that helps sustain drives and generate 1st downs.

Diesel must own Foster and Meshawn!

 

[mlball77]

90-1250-10 receiving, 40 yards and 1 TD rushing. 195 total points. Still Top 5.

I think this looks about right... I might bump the yardage up 25-50 yards maybe, but I think this projection seems very reasonable and much more reality based than some of the others.

 

[renesauz]

Easily top five, maybe pushing for #1. Teams were doubling Smith last year and he STILL put up gaudy numbers...how can a decent WR on the other side hurt him significantly when that means LESS double teams?

95-100 catches, 1300ish yards, 12 TD's is whre I'd project him, with a better chance to move UP from there then down (barring injury).

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

In case you didn't notice the Panthers have had the #1 fantasy WR the past two seasons - Moose than Smith - no secret that Delhomme locks in on one WR and forces the ball to that guy.

Predictions:

99 - 1500 - 15

P.S. I'm grabbing Key just in case anything happens to Steve Smith

 

[BassNBrew]

P.S. I'm grabbing Key just in case anything happens to Steve Smith

Wrong guy.

 

[Pots]

P.S. I'm grabbing Key just in case anything happens to Steve Smith

Wrong guy.

If you're referring to Colbert, you're mistaken.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

What are you gonna do if Delhomme gets injured? =P

 

[David Yudkin]

What are you gonna do if Delhomme gets injured? =P

How many uber stud WR have had their QBs go down for the year and stayed uber studs? IMO, you can make this statement about any stud WR.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

What are you gonna do if Delhomme gets injured? =P

How many uber stud WR have had their QBs go down for the year and stayed uber studs? IMO, you can make this statement about any stud WR.

See: Arizona last year.Having a capable backup means more than some imagine.

 

[David Yudkin]

What are you gonna do if Delhomme gets injured? =P

How many uber stud WR have had their QBs go down for the year and stayed uber studs? IMO, you can make this statement about any stud WR.

See: Arizona last year.Having a capable backup means more than some imagine.

Throwing the ball 670 times never hurt. But I still think most top WR would be hurting if the starter got hurt for an extended time.

 

[BassNBrew]

P.S. I'm grabbing Key just in case anything happens to Steve Smith

Wrong guy.

If you're referring to Colbert, you're mistaken.

New around here?

 

[BassNBrew]

3 Members: BassNBrew, Pots, Assani Fisher
Where's Icy???

 

[Keg]

I posted the following here a few months ago:

here are his stats since 2003 from the last 12 weeks of the season when he basically showed he was for real with his new starting gig

Excluding 2004 due to the broken bone in his 1st game!

Year.........Games.........Catches........Yards.........TDs.........Games w/out TD

2003..........12.................79............979............6................6

2005..........16................103..........1563..........13................4

05Playoffs....4.................36............466............5.................1

Totals.........32...............214..........3008..........24................11

so 32 games is the equivalent to 2 seasons and smith has avgd what would be

107catches/yr for 2yrs

1504yrds/yr for 2yrs

12 TDs/yr for 2yrs

and he scores atleast ONE TD in 65.63% of all games he plays in

in 2004 when Muhammad was the #1 WR Colbert went for 47/754/5and that is around what I expect from Key with maybe a few more catches, but I think Key will command more respect in coverage then what Colbert did in 2004 and in the end that should help Smith...i expect to see smith's numbers to decrease a bit this yr with his YPC probably increasing some....

so i think a 10% decrease in his Catches and an increase in his YPC of just .8/catch=

96

1536(16.0 YPC)

14