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Player Spotlight: Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Steven Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
Thanks for the projections guys :thumbup:

Let's also have some discussion though on you're underlying views. To my mind, most are going to look at Steven Jackson's age, his relative lack of touchdown productivity and Michael Turner's struggles last year and assume Jackson is due for another leg down in his overall production. I don't see it. I believe Jackson remains in exceptional shape, will be running behind an improved line, and for the first time in ages will most certainly NOT be the focal point of opposing defenses. And let's not forget this is a guy that's caught 90 passes in a season, so he'll feel right at home as one of Matt Ryan's outlets. I'm hoping Jackson's age and workload keep his ADP low enough that I can target him as my RB2 this year, would love to have him slotted in that position.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
1,200 yards / 8TD
:confused:

Injury, poor performance, total yards, or just rushing statistics?

Michael Turner averaged 4.5, 4.9, 4.1, and 4.5 in his seasons in Atlanta where he wasn't a shell of his former self. Jackson has been a 4.2 guy in his career in St. Louis. I don't know if Jackson is better now than a prime-of-his-career Turner, but I'm willing to bet he's very close.

Jackson still looked really good last season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see his best ypc season (other than his rookie year) come this year in an Atlanta uniform.

Jackson is the prototypical feature back. He'll be a big factor in the passing game, and he'll likely be catching passes with some room to run with them. There were 103 receptions by RBs in Atlanta's offense in 2012. I can see about a 60/40 split of those receptions between Jackson and Rodgers. His career yards per reception is 8.2.

He's been able to handle 260 and 257 carries in the past two seasons respectively. Turner was a double digit touchdown scorer in each of his seasons in Atlanta. There's no reason to believe Jackson can't replicate those numbers.

250 carries at 4.6 ypc is 1,150 yards. 60 receptions at 8.5 ypc is 510 yards. 12 total TDs.

 

Mr Non Sequitur

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
He's missed 2 games in the past 4 years. He plays through injury consistently. I don't expect that to change the first year he has less carries and isn't expected to pass block as regularly

 

Jercules

Footballguy
Matt Ryan emerged as the engine of the offense last season. The ball is in his hands, and S-Jax will complement him and JJ, White, Gonzo, etc. I think Jackson turns in a solid, TD-laden season--but he isn't going to break out and dominate the way some are imagining.

 

amicsta

Footballguy
Matt Ryan emerged as the engine of the offense last season. The ball is in his hands, and S-Jax will complement him and JJ, White, Gonzo, etc. I think Jackson turns in a solid, TD-laden season--but he isn't going to break out and dominate the way some are imagining.
Just to play devils advocate here, isnt it possible that the ineffectiveness of michael turner player a large part in this? The Falcons rush attempts have decreased each of the past 2 seasons, and while i think the improvements in both Matt Ryan and the receiving options have something to do with that, the decreased level of effectiveness for turner does too. Atlanta may get a little more balanced this season, which would help Sjax's value greatly.
 

Mr Non Sequitur

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
He's missed 2 games in the past 4 years. He plays through injury consistently. I don't expect that to change the first year he has less carries and isn't expected to pass block as regularly
How many parts of other games? In weeks 2 and 3 last year he carried the rock 9 times and 11 times...I seem to remember him leaving with a pulled muscle of some kind in the leg. He logged time in both of those games but he wasn't helping anyone. 21/52, 9/58, 11/29 to start the season, I doubt owners were happy to plug that in as their RB2/low end RB1. Tell the whole story, that's all I ask.

He'll be 30 in July FYI. He has gone from 324 carries in 2009 to 330 in 2010, the last two seasons that has dropped off to 260 then 257. He is not going to carry the ball 300 times. Quizz Rodgers will see the field a lot and SJax will be there as the team builds leads and needs to close games out.

Now I've shared a lot of impressions and also posted projections. Did you already have a projection? If it is leaps and bounds higher than what I posted, please explain why. If not then why are you telling me SJax has missed 2 games in 4 years, that's really not true.

One last note, SJax went over 20 carries 3 times last season. 18 and 19 a few others for sure but he is in decline at this point. I think he will score a lot of short TDs but he has almost 2,400 carries over 9 heavy hitting seasons, lot of mileage.

 
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Grahamburn

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.

 

Mr Non Sequitur

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.
Fair point but we will disagree on the 3rd down back role. SJax cannot handle 25 touches a game at this stage, he'll break down by mid season if not sooner. Quizz is going to get 10-12 touches a game IMO, maybe the sky spits out different colors in my world. U make an excellent point about the receptions. I could nudge it up to 40 but Jackson once had 97 receptions? Folks started penciling him in for 80 receptions, expectations too high.

 

msommer

Footballguy
eight consecutive 1000 yard seasons, but 2200 carries

How long can that continue?

Most RBs don't decline gracefully but fall off a cliff.

Don't know it that will happen to SJAX this year but if it does it won't be on my team.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Mr Non Sequitur said:
Grahamburn said:
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.
Fair point but we will disagree on the 3rd down back role. SJax cannot handle 25 touches a game at this stage, he'll break down by mid season if not sooner. Quizz is going to get 10-12 touches a game IMO, maybe the sky spits out different colors in my world. U make an excellent point about the receptions. I could nudge it up to 40 but Jackson once had 97 receptions? Folks started penciling him in for 80 receptions, expectations too high.
Quizz had 147 touches in 2012 or 9.18 per game. That was with an ineffective Turner who wasn't a threat as a receiver as his competition for touches. Quizz' potential for touches has not improved with Atlanta's addition of Jackson.

I have Jackson at 310 touches or 19.37 per game and expect Quizz to be more in the 8 touch per game area. He was almost as ineffective as Turner running the football, so I expect Jackson to take a few of his carries in addition to the receptions.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
If you told me that Jackson would not fall off the cliff this year, I'd say he should be a top 10 pick. Hell, Michael Turner still put up 11 touchdowns for them last year (despite a poor YPA and lower touches), so if Jackson is still as good as he has been the last few years, he could put up sick numbers, especially since he will contribute far more in the passing game than Turner ever did.

But Jackson is such a physical runner, that when he does hit the wall, it is gonna be a fast descent, and if that happens, he will be one of the major busts of the year.

Considering his current ADP, he will likely end up on a team or two of mine, as I don't want to miss out on him if he is still great, but he does scare me.

 
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Air Stich

Footballguy
I've been a big fan of SJax throughout his career and have had him on numerous teams, including last year. His current ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator is 12. I won't be using a late first round pick on him this year. One problem I ran into last season was that he had zero trade value. He's just not the type of player that gets fantasy managers excited. I won't be surprised if he turns in a solid season, but expect his perceived value to plummet the first time he "tweaks" something in a game.

I'd rather take a player like AJ Green who has game-breaking potential and would command top dollar after any big game.

 

Kleck

Footballguy
Steven Jackson is arguably one of the most talented RBs in the league. He's everything Turner has been for ATL, plus a solid receiving threat. I don't believe Jaquizz Rodgers is anything more than a COP back and his numbers will not have any affect on Jackson's. Jackson may be ancient to the dynasty folks, but I could see him ending his career strong, similar to Curtis Martin when he was 30. The opportunity is there for many TDs, which Jackson hasn't seen for six seasons. #2 RB price with #1 RB upside. I'll buy.

280/1250/12 rushing

40/320/2 receiving

 
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BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Jackson will Leave Nothing but defeat for fantasy owners not wise enough to secure him at his bargain basement price.

240 carries / 1150 yards / 15 TDs

40 recpts / 300 yards / 1 TD

Actually I'm being conservative here figuring he'll miss a game and get rest in week 17. He's been putting up solid stats for the Rams, he'll blow the roof off the Georgia Dome with Ryan/White/Jones/Gonzo surrounding him.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
I may be alone here, but I think Jackson gets to 300 carries this year. The team is likely going to be in most, if not all, games and will be grinding out the clock. Quizz won't be the one doing the grinding in the 4th quarter. I understand the concerns about workload, but as someone else said, he's in great shape and looked good last year.

This is probably his last hurrah before he hits that RB cliff, but I see one more strong year from him.

300-1200-12; 50-400-3

 
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tdmills

Footballguy
If you told me that Jackson would not fall off the cliff this year, I'd say he should be a top 10 pick. Hell, Michael Turner still put up 11 touchdowns for them last year (despite a poor YPA and lower touches), so if Jackson is still as good as he has been the last few years, he could put up sick numbers, especially since he will contribute far more in the passing game than Turner ever did.

But Jackson is such a physical runner, that when he does hit the wall, it is gonna be a fast descent, and if that happens, he will be one of the major busts of the year.

Considering his current ADP, he will likely end up on a team or two of mine, as I don't want to miss out on him if he is still great, but he does scare me.
I get a weird feeling he's going to fall off the cliff

 

Carter_Can_Fly

Footballguy
tdmills said:
If you told me that Jackson would not fall off the cliff this year, I'd say he should be a top 10 pick. Hell, Michael Turner still put up 11 touchdowns for them last year (despite a poor YPA and lower touches), so if Jackson is still as good as he has been the last few years, he could put up sick numbers, especially since he will contribute far more in the passing game than Turner ever did.

But Jackson is such a physical runner, that when he does hit the wall, it is gonna be a fast descent, and if that happens, he will be one of the major busts of the year.

Considering his current ADP, he will likely end up on a team or two of mine, as I don't want to miss out on him if he is still great, but he does scare me.
I get a weird feeling he's going to fall off the cliff
Watching him last year it would be tough to say that this year would be the year that he does fall off. Now, I know it is tough to predict for any RB when they will fall off that cliff but after watching him last year he had a lot left.

There are many positives working in his way. First off Atl has had very good balance in that offense and Turner was very productive as a RB there. Sjax will/should be energized with a change of scenery and a much more explosive offense. He will have way more red zone touches then he has had over the last few years in Indy. Jackson is also going for his 9th consecutive year of 1000 plus yards rushing. Jackson looked very good last year and as said it would be tough to see him fall of the cliff this year.

-1260 yards rushing 11 td's

-41 receptions 340 yards 1 td

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Thinking about this some more, even if Jackson does "fall off the cliff," he could still put up solid numbers. A fat, over the hill Michael Turner still got 241 touches, 928 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 2012, so it's not like, given their lack of other featured back options, Atlanta is afraid to give the rock to a RB who isn't in his prime anymore. So, if Turner could still finish as a lower teens FF RB in 2012 despite limited touches in the passing game and averaging less than 4 YPC, Jackson could fall off the cliff and still do just as good, and if he does remain as good as the last few years, again, the sky is the limit in 2013.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
tdmills said:
If you told me that Jackson would not fall off the cliff this year, I'd say he should be a top 10 pick. Hell, Michael Turner still put up 11 touchdowns for them last year (despite a poor YPA and lower touches), so if Jackson is still as good as he has been the last few years, he could put up sick numbers, especially since he will contribute far more in the passing game than Turner ever did.

But Jackson is such a physical runner, that when he does hit the wall, it is gonna be a fast descent, and if that happens, he will be one of the major busts of the year.

Considering his current ADP, he will likely end up on a team or two of mine, as I don't want to miss out on him if he is still great, but he does scare me.
I get a weird feeling he's going to fall off the cliff
Watching him last year it would be tough to say that this year would be the year that he does fall off. Now, I know it is tough to predict for any RB when they will fall off that cliff but after watching him last year he had a lot left.

There are many positives working in his way. First off Atl has had very good balance in that offense and Turner was very productive as a RB there. Sjax will/should be energized with a change of scenery and a much more explosive offense. He will have way more red zone touches then he has had over the last few years in Indy. Jackson is also going for his 9th consecutive year of 1000 plus yards rushing. Jackson looked very good last year and as said it would be tough to see him fall of the cliff this year.

-1260 yards rushing 11 td's

-41 receptions 340 yards 1 td
I didn't see much explosiveness or quick change of direction to his game last year. He's still a very tough, physical runner. You just never know when injuries/touches/taking a beating will be enough.

I like him as a player and have respect, but i'm not going to go on a limb and say he's getting 1500 total yards. I'd say he has a better shot of getting under 1000 rushing

 

TheWick

Footballguy
Receptions down... Touchdowns up

He would not have signed in ATL if he wasnt promised the workload.

300-1200-12

35-280-1

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
I think Tony G coming back helps SJAX more than anything else. That's another linebacker taken out of the mix for a split second waiting for Tony to commit to either blocking or running a route.

I'm not as optimistic as other people but I think he'll get to 1,000 yards pretty easily. I don't see any massive amount of touchdowns, though. He had a TON of opportunities on the goal-line last year. I vividly remember watching one series where he was given the ball three times on the 2-yard line and was stuffed every single play. The only way he scores is if they're spreading the ball out so much that he only has to beat one or two guys to punch it in the end-zone.

He's going to go from undervalued to overvalued by the time drafting starts in August and will likely not end up on any of my teams.

At best, due to age, and since the running game is a "passing thought" (pun intended) on that offense, I see...

1100 / 9

30 / 200 / 1

 
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Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
I may be alone here, but I think Jackson gets to 300 carries this year. The team is likely going to be in most, if not all, games and will be grinding out the clock. Quizz won't be the one doing the grinding in the 4th quarter. I understand the concerns about workload, but as someone else said, he's in great shape and looked good last year.

This is probably his last hurrah before he hits that RB cliff, but I see one more strong year from him.

300-1200-12; 50-400-3
The grinding out the clock part is huge. More leads = more carries.

 

UKColt

Footballguy
Love SJax this year. He's spent years being the only weapon in St Louis and consistently faced stacked boxes. Now he's on a team with an elite QB, two elite WRs and an elite TE. He is the least of the defenses problems now, and that is great. Look at what a fat and slow Michael Turner did last year with them!

If I can get SJax as my RB2 in the early to mid 2nd, I'll take that all day.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Jackson with the Falcons is definitely an upgrade for him from the situation with the Rams recently. As has been already mentioned the WRs and Gonzo create a situation where defenses cannot focus as much on stopping Jackson. The thing that has concerned me about the situation is the Falcons offensive line.

May 9th Bitonti ranks Atlantas Oline 30th in the league- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=bitontiOLrank2013

Football focus ranked Atlantas Oline as 15th in 2012- https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/28/ranking-the-2012-offensive-lines/3/

Quote
PB – 17th, RB – 17th, PEN – 1st
Stud: We’ve always liked Tyson Clabo (+21.3) as one of these tackles you don’t often notice. Unfortunately, while that means he’s doing his job (Charles Johnson games aside) in pass protection, it also speaks volumes for his inability to consistently impose himself in the run game.
Dud: There may be a day when Peter Konz (-12.7) is one of the better interior linemen in the league. However, in 2012 he was just a rookie who found out that the step up from college is steep.
Summary: Just good enough. That’s the Falcons’ offensive line, which allows its premium players in the passing game to operate. The downside is that without a truly dynamic back they were often exposed in the run game against more physical lines.
However Clabo was cut.

The Falcons have an interesting youth movement happening with their offensive line now with a few players they drafted in 2010 now moving into starting roles. Part of this is so the players can play together for multiple seasons I guess. Nice article about that here- http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1592760-tyson-clabo-released-atlanta-falcons-offensive-line-youth-movement-has-begun

Quote

Long time Atlanta Falcons right tackle Tyson Clabohttp://bleacherreport.com/tyson-clabo was released on April 4, 2013according to the team's official website. He was cut as part of the youth movement for the offensive line and for cap savings.
The move saved $4.5 million that will be available after June 2nd for rookie contracts to be signed. However, there is still another $2.5-$3 million that could be getting used by the time the draft rolls around for a move or two.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Falcons "neglect" what would be considered a need at right tackle with Clabo gone as well. All in all though, this move has a ton to do with moving towards a younger, more athletic offensive line than what was on the field in 2012.
Part of the move behind cutting Clabo would be related to the theory of 150—ESPN's John Clayton's theory about NFL offensive lines needing to be under a combined age of 150. The Falcons' starting offensive line's combined age in 2012 was 144 years old.
However, with everyone getting a year older the Falcons were going to be forced to get younger. This year, expect 24-year-old players Joe Hawley, Peter Konz and Lamar Holmes to work well as the right side of the line. It would also bring the Falcons' starting offensive line's combined age to just 129 years old.
With veterans Sam Baker at 28 and Justin Blalock at 29, the overall mileage on the line would be pretty low. They would also be able to stick together for at least another four years bringing a long term consistency that offensive lines need—especially as franchise quarterbacks like Matt Ryan hit their prime.
The move to get rid of Clabo freeing up $4.5 million has been suggested as one that could mean the Falcons are bringing in another big name. However, I find it unlikely. It will most likely be done for long term cap flexibility and the likelihood of the Falcons making a move for say, Darrelle Revis is between slim and none.
The Falcons could fiscally afford it, but it's just not a logical fit for Atlanta to do something like bring in Revis unless his market completely sours, and Atlanta can get him for a second-round pick in the 2014 draft and a reasonable contract.

Right tackle isn't a need, despite Clabo's release
Tyson Clabo has been the only man to play right tackle for the Falcons in each of the last five seasons. However, with his release, the Falcons still don't need to go out and bring in a replacement for the massive Wake Forest graduate.
In 2010, the Falcons took Mike Johnson out of Alabama. He played left guard, left tackle and right tackle for the Crimson Tide. The former third rounder has size, strength and speed and was the swing tackle for Atlanta in the 2012 season.
In 2012, the Falcons took a project named Lamar Holmes out of Southern Mississippi. The difference here is that Holmes is a true beast of a man similar to Clabo at 6'6" and 323 pounds. Holmes has really good footwork and experience on both sides of the line in college.
The question here is, with a pair of talented players like Johnson and Holmes, do the Falcons really even need a tackle?
No. Not a starting one at least. Garrett Reynolds is a great long term fit for depth at right guard and right tackle and whoever loses between Holmes and Johnson can backup both spots on the left side. But overall, the Falcons don't need to bring in any offensive tackle talent with how crowded the field is already there.

Who is the projected starting line at this time?

Left Tackle Sam Baker, 6'5", 307 pounds, age 28 on opening day
Sam Baker has been the starting left tackle on opening day every since 2009. Expect him to keep this role after re-signing with the Falcons for six years this offseason. If he can show improvement from last season, Baker could go from pariah to Pro Bowl player in a two-year span.

Left Guard Justin Blalock, 6'4", 329 pounds, age 29 on opening day
Justin Blalock is the ole reliable of the line. Despite being in the league for six years already, Blalock has missed a total of just two games for the Falcons. He and Baker have excellent chemistry in the passing game and showed higher proficiency in the run game in 2012.

Center Joe Hawley, 6'3", 297 pounds, age 24 on opening day
This may come as a shock, but Joe Hawley was drafted at the ripe old age of 21 in 2010 to be Todd McClure's long term replacement. After spending three years behind the Mud Duck, it's time for Hawley to prove his worth this season in the center of the line.

Right Guard Peter Konz, 6'5", 315 pounds, age 24 on opening day
Peter Konz was a very good rookie in 2012 and improved every game. While he had a poor game late in the year versus Ndamukong Suh, that should be expected as a rookie. He should spend more time this offseason training up his strength and his quickness has shown to be a true asset on screens.

Right Tackle Lamar Holmes, 6'6", 323 pounds, age 24 on opening day
Lamar Holmes is a beast of a man who was a captain at Southern Mississippi for his hard work. On the Falcons offensive line, he will be expected to keep it up. His length and strength is very similar to that of Clabo, but he's much quicker off of the snap and when dropping back in pass protection.

All stats used are either from Pro Football Focus's Premium Stats, ESPN, CFBStats or the NFL. All contract information is courtesy Spotrac and Rotoworld. All recruiting rankings come from 247Sports.com.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, NFL and NFL Draft. He also runs the NFL Draft Website ScarDraft.com.
The thing that the Falcons were ranked highly in 2012 for was the low number of penalties. I don't think that will be a strength with many new players getting used to playing together for awhile.

Quote
The Falcons have spent the offseason getting younger and the offensive and defensive lines are where much of it is taking place. The guys that will be competing there are some of the largest the Falcons have had under the Smith/Dimitroff era.

Much of the conversation this offseason around the Falcons involves the lines on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is transitioning to a younger, bigger unit and the defensive line is going to lean on some young pass rushers in addition to the offseason free-agent signing of Osi Umenyiora.
Earlier this week, Falcons head coach Mike Smith appeared on Atlanta’s Archer & Bell on 790 The Zone to discuss the coming competition along the front lines on both sides of the ball.

While it’s been discussed heavily and assumed, Smith came out and said what most were thinking about the center position. Second-year lineman Peter Konz will have an opportunity to earn the job at center from the beginning and Garrett Reynolds returns to man the right guard position that he started six games at last season before a season-ending injury.
“Peter Konz will move into the center position,” Smith said. “Garrett Reynolds, who was our starting right guard last year, will start the offseason as our starting right guard. And then Mike Johnson and Lamar Holmes will compete at right tackle.”

With at least two positions that will feature heavy competition on the line, Smith said it reminds him of the competition on the O-line in his first season with Atlanta in 2008. He also thinks the physical size of all the players in the mix is significant.


“This will be the biggest line, physically, that we’ve had on the offensive side,” Smith said.

This is the year that young players will be asked and expected to step up and play valuable snaps and the same will be asked on the defensive line. Smith said defensive tackle Corey Peters will be fully healthy this year unlike last year and the addition of Umenyiora along with mainstay Jonathan Babineauxwill give the Falcons leadership up front.

One of the key young players in the rotation is 2011 seventh-round pick Cliff Matthews. Matthews added some pounds this offseason to make him more versatile all along the defensive front.

“Cliff Matthews has done a very good job for us last year,” Smith said. “He’s come into his own. He’s put on a lot of weight in the offseason. We asked him to gain 10-15 pounds and he’s done that.”

With the addition of college free agents in the offseason on both sides, Smith sees a deep group that can evolve into a physically imposing group at one of the most important areas on a football team.
http://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/article-1/Offensive-Line-Biggest-In-Five-Seasons-/9e0e930b-5caa-4e57-89ec-36d364616638

If the Falcons line can be more physical this season Jackson could have a very good year. Even if the line struggles for awhile I think Jackson will be busy closing out games and keeping the Falcons defense off the field.

So I went and looked at the last 3 seasons of both the Falcons and Rams offenses, specifically their running games. The last 3 seasons for Atlanta has been with Matt Ryan breaking out in 2010 and increasing his passing attempts by about 100 a season since then. Michael Turner as the main RB over these past 3 seasons has been in steady decline.

2012 Falcons 615pa 378ra Turner 222ra 112ra 94 to Rodgers/18Snelling 3.7ypc season 26th in RA 29th in yards 29th in ypc
2011 Falcons 594pa 453 Turner 301ra 101ra split between Rodgers/Snelling 4 ypc season 11th in RA 17th in yards 21tst in ypc
2010 Falcons 577pa 497ra Turner 334ra Snelling 87ra FB36ra 36Johnson 3.8ypc season 5th in RA 12th in yards 26th in ypc

In Turners 1st season the Falcons were close to 500 rushing attempts but the yards per carry were pretty bad. Shows commitment to the running game and having a lead to close out games. The Falcons phased out one of their COP RB roles. 2011 seems like where the Falcons would like to be as far as distribution and players being healthy all season. 2012 Turner clearly declined and that is the main reason for the 80-100 less carries that I think this offense wants to run. Steven Jackson is a career 4.2 ypc RB so I see that meeting somewhere between the Falcons recent team ypc. So 4ypc expected.


2012 Rams 557pa 410ra 257ra Jackson 98ra Richardson 22nd in rushing
2011 Rams 549pa 409ra Jackson 260ra Carnell Williams 87ra 23rd in rushing
2010 Rams 590a 429ra Jackson 330ra 3.8ypc Darby 34ra Bradford rookie year 25th in rushing

I can see why some may percieve Jackson as slipping with the low ypc on 330 carries in 2010 as a sign that he may have lost some of his ability. However with a rookie QB this is why they were conservative and defenses were more effective against Jackson imo.

The Falcons were willing to give Turner a heavy workload. I think Jackson is a better player today than Turner was even in 2010. Jackson's career speaks for itself

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV2004 21 STL rb 39 14 3 134 673 4 48 5.0 48.1 9.6 19 189 9.9 0 28 1.4 13.5 862 4 1 52005 22 STL RB 39 15 15 254 1046 8 51 4.1 69.7 16.9 43 320 7.4 2 27 2.9 21.3 1366 10 3 92006* 23 STL RB 39 16 16 346 1528 13 59 4.4 95.5 21.6 90 806 9.0 3 64 5.6 50.4 2334 16 4 192007 24 STL RB 39 12 12 237 1002 5 54 4.2 83.5 19.8 38 271 7.1 1 37 3.2 22.6 1273 6 5 82008 25 STL RB 39 12 11 253 1042 7 56 4.1 86.8 21.1 40 379 9.5 1 53 3.3 31.6 1421 8 5 82009* 26 STL RB 39 15 15 324 1416 4 58 4.4 94.4 21.6 51 322 6.3 0 38 3.4 21.5 1738 4 2 82010* 27 STL RB 39 16 16 330 1241 6 42 3.8 77.6 20.6 46 383 8.3 0 49 2.9 23.9 1624 6 1 102011 28 STL RB 39 15 15 260 1145 5 47 4.4 76.3 17.3 42 333 7.9 1 50 2.8 22.2 1478 6 2 62012 29 STL rb/RB 39 16 15 257 1042 4 46 4.1 65.1 16.1 38 321 8.4 0 22 2.4 20.1 1363 4 0 7Career 131 118 2395 10135 56 59 4.2 77.4 18.3 407 3324 8.2 8 64 3.1 25.4 13459 64 23 80Jackson 275-320 carries 4.1-4.4 ypc 1128-1408yds 8-14TD 39-63 receptions for 312-504 yards 1-3TD which should be good enough to be a RB1 in 2013.

I would expect some decline with Jackson perhaps similar to the decline we saw with Turner over the next 3 seasons with Jackson being 30-32 years old from 2013-15 but may have enough juice to provide a solid 2014 as well. The Falcons have shown they are not too picky about it. As long as the rushing attempts are above 400 it should be enough to support Jackson having a 300 or so carry season as they did with Turner.

 
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DiStefano

Footballguy
I wonder why Turner fell off a cliff last year? Well, he was 30 years old, and has now carried the ball 1600 times.

 

Jello_Biafra

Footballguy
I wonder why Turner fell off a cliff last year? Well, he was 30 years old, and has now carried the ball 1600 times.
The guy still had 10 rushing TDs, and 930 total yards. He finished RB17 in non-PPR, and RB25 in PPG, non-PPR, ahead of guys like McFadden and Matthews. If he can put those numbers up and be considered to be completely done, S. Jackson should have a top 10 finish easily.

 

msommer

Footballguy
I wonder why Turner fell off a cliff last year? Well, he was 30 years old, and has now carried the ball 1600 times.
The guy still had 10 rushing TDs, and 930 total yards. He finished RB17 in non-PPR, and RB25 in PPG, non-PPR, ahead of guys like McFadden and Matthews. If he can put those numbers up and be considered to be completely done, S. Jackson should have a top 10 finish easily.
Unless of course he is equally done as Turner was prior last season(having had close to 2400 carries, 400 receptions in the past 9 seasons and turning 30 just before TC)
 

Jello_Biafra

Footballguy
I wonder why Turner fell off a cliff last year? Well, he was 30 years old, and has now carried the ball 1600 times.
The guy still had 10 rushing TDs, and 930 total yards. He finished RB17 in non-PPR, and RB25 in PPG, non-PPR, ahead of guys like McFadden and Matthews. If he can put those numbers up and be considered to be completely done, S. Jackson should have a top 10 finish easily.
Unless of course he is equally done as Turner was prior last season(having had close to 2400 carries, 400 receptions in the past 9 seasons and turning 30 just before TC)
I agree. He's teetering on the edge of the cliff. When he drops, no-one knows for sure. Still, on Atlanta, his absolute floor, if healthy, is what Turner did, which still puts him at a RB2.

 

KrazyKyle

Footballguy
Matt Ryan and the Falcons are a pass orientated offense. Rarely will they see 8 man fronts with the like of Julio and Roddy on the outside. Michael Turner has been a highly predictable runner with no threat of receiving, and still posted 10 TDs! With the most running room Jackson has ever seen, I predict him to outperform his ADP mad be a RB 1 in 12 team leagues. If you can get him as a rb1, steal steal steal!

275/1300/12 rushing

50/400/2 receiving

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Our esteemed Around The League colleague, Dan Hanzus, heard it from readers after he ranked 26 NFL running backs ahead of veteran Steven Jackson.

On the heels of signing Jackson to a three-year, $12 million contract in March, Falcons coach Mike Smith on Wednesday talked about the 29-year-old as a potential pass-catching threat out of the backfield.The Atlanta Falcons are more optimistic.

"He's a big, strong running back that catches the ball extremely well," Smith said, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "He creates issues for defenses. He's just another weapon that we have in our offensive arsenal. He's a guy who had close to 100 catches in a season, so he's a guy that we can use in the passing game. He's not just a running back, he's a receiving back as well."

The Falcons never had that option with Michael Turner, who caught a measly 59 passes during his five seasons in Atlanta. Jackson has averaged 45 catches per year dating to 2004.

The caution here is Jacquizz Rodgers, the Falcons' versatile runner who figures to see plenty of action on passing downs. Still, offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter repeatedly has talked about using more screen passes to chip away at defenses, and that bodes well for Jackson in this high-octane attack.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000207978/article/steven-jackson-will-be-featured-in-falcons-air-attack
 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Jackson is in a very nice situation to post some really nice numbers. The offense will still go through Matt Ryan, but ATL is going to need some balance, and Jackson provides that. Also, Jackson is a very good receiver, so ATL will be a harder to defend in their base offense. Last year, defenses knew they only had to worry about the run with Michael Turner, and not worry about the run as much with Jacquizz Rodgers. Always health is a concern, but I really like Jackson this year as a #2RB to pair up with an elite back. After RBs like Jackson and Forte and Chris Johnson, it starts to get very dicey at RB with a lot of RBBC situations. If you can get Jackson in the 3rd round, smile. I would suspect you will need a 2nd rounder to get him. This is one spot where I can go RB-RB in the 1st 2 rounds, since the QB and WR fields are very deep this year.

250 car, 1100 yds rushing, 10 TD

45 rec, 325 rec yds, 1 TD

 

Mene

Footballguy
I don't think people realize how serious Jackson is about taking care of his body. There have been a few stories about all the extremes he goes to to make sure his body stays at it's peak. He's missed a number of games over his career, but it's always something muscle related, never really having a serious injury... just a lot of nagging ones. I open with this because I think people get too hung up on the injury prone label, and his age. This guy is still in as good or better shape than most 25 year old RB's in the league. The wear and tear is obviously going to catch up to him eventually, but I am not sure it is now. I expect he'll take Turner's role as GL back, which should all but guarantee him double digit TD's. He is an excellent receiver out the backfield, which has been established, so I would expect to see more involvement in the passing game than Turner ever had. A return to 350+ touches is unrealistic, but I fully expect something like

265/1100/12 & 35/275/1

300 or so touches, 1400 or so yards, and double digit TD's. The TD's will be key, he should see far more opportunity for short yardage TD's this year than he has in a while. Unless you project significant time missed, 10+ TD's seems like a lock. That alone will give him a really nice floor, with possible RB1 upside. I think there is a lot of room for wiggle with the receptions. While I project 35, I wouldn't be shocked at all if that number gets close to 50. It's a passing Offense, and Quizz certainly hasn't distinguished himself yet as the open field threat many expected, so there is certainly room for it. I just doubt the coaching staff will want to overdo it with Jackson and his touches

 
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CentralPA

Footballguy
Jackson is another Boom or Bust guy but in a different sense because of his age. He's been very consistent in posting above a 4 yards per carry average with only one year under it (an injured laced 2010). The million dollar question is the age factor, does he fall of the cliff? I don't think he does. With the receiving weapons this offense has how can you not be reinvigorated. He's got a shot at a title with this team. For the first time in his career he won't be the primary focus of the defense (although still one to not overlook). Of the guys around that will be available in PPR redraft (ie Johnson, Forte, MJD, Lynch) he has a very good shot at finish a head of all of them. I am buying this year. I can only hope he drops to me in the 3rd or 4th.

268/1250/12 TDs

40 rec/ 280 yards/ 3 TDs

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
As a Falcon fan, I advocated for the signing of Jackson. Not only was Turner done, but as the Falcons offense changed over the course of the first 5 years of Ryan’s career from a run oriented offense to a pass oriented one, Turner lack of proficiency in the passing game acted as an anchor of sorts. It’s one thing to have a guy who can’t catch passes out of the backfield who you can hand the ball to 20 times/game for a 4.5 YPC (which is essentially what Turner did his first 4 years with the Falcons). But his drop-off in 2012 which many saw coming was made even that much worse because he offered no ability to be anything other than a check down option.

With Jackson, the Falcons now have an RB who’ll need to be accounted for coming out of the backfield and with Dirk Koetter, the Falcons OC who showed in his first season with the Falcons that he could design and execute an effective screen game, I suspect Jackson has a chance to post some of the best receiving totals of his career.

With that said, I also think the Falcons are going to be cognizant of not overworking their new bellcow RB. In previous seasons before the entirety of their season was measured solely on the success they had in January, the Falcons ran and ran and ran Turner who come January had little gas left in the tank. Making a concerted effort to lessen the load on Turner in 2012, the Falcons will probably be wise to do the same with Jackson. As such, I’d be surprised if the Falcons gave Jackson more than 230-240 carries. What I could see the Falcons doing is providing Jackson an opportunity to catch 50 passes. Do the Falcons want Jackson to average better than Turner’s paltry 3.6 2012 YPC? Yes…but they’d be happy with Jackson’s 4.1 YPC. Again, Jackson’s true value to the Falcons will come more in his versatility versus his production. Don’t forget, the Falcons really like Jacquizz Rodgers and it’s quite possible, you’ll see him top the 100 carry mark as well. Rodgers rush/reception ratio last year was 94:53. I could see that changing to 120:30 in 2013 which would help Rodgers ability to make plays in the open field passing game as well since teams will have to key on him carrying the ball with greater frequency.

In short, I think the value of Jackson is being overstated in Fantasy circles a bit. I think he’s a solid RB2, but he does not have RB1 upside.

Prediction: 238 Rushes, 985 Rushing Yards, 8 TD’s, 52 Receptions 356 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.

 

Beerguzzler

Footballguy
Just based on the Alt offense that developed last season, I see him getting 250 carries this season. 4.2 ypc = 1050 yards. The upside comes with the amount of TD's he can punch in, which I think will be substantial in that offense = 16 TD's.

250 1050 16TD's 30 rec 220 yards 1 TD

 

We Tigers

Footballguy
In five years under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, Atlanta RBs have run for 21, 14, 14, 12, and 11 TDs. The numbers have declined since they've become more of a passing team, but they're still solid. In the same span, St. Louis RBs have run for 7, 4, 8, 7, and 4. In those same five seasons, Steven Jackson's worst total yardage figure was 1363 last year, on his 2nd lightest workload (by 1 touch, actually).

I'm pretty close to the consensus here, and do think Rodgers will still have a major role as the change of pace back. But that still makes for a great season for Steven Jackson.

242 carries, 1053 yards, 11 TDs; 38 receptions, 315 yards.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
Still wondering why people give Quizz so much love. He has never really been that much of an impact player and if there was ever a time for him to showcase his "goods" and demand more touches, it would have been with the plodder Michael Turner in town. He is virtually undraftable to me right now. It seems like some people assume that he just HAS to be involved.

Jackson will be able to pretty much fall down for a yard and get 10+ goaline TD's, let alone the ones he will score from distance in the open space he will have and the matchups where he will have an advantage in that open space.

One could argue that this team already has 3 receivers that demand double coverage. Think about that.

Jackson could get 5+ receiving TD's alone on screen passes or short play action sit down throws after Julio and Roddy take defenders down the field.

The other receivers are physical, good blocking receivers as well.

Jackson is a beast and a physical runner, in the open field, there will be a few guys that won't like to see him coming with a head of steam.

Fantasy=talent and opportunity....I'm actually trying to think of a more talented RB in a better "situation" and I can't come up with one.....

Sometimes we overanalyze and ignore things that are pretty obvious....I think Jackson is in line for a top 5 season...potentially top 3.....

 
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FF Ninja

Footballguy
Despite my enthusiasm for Jackson's arrival to a team that isn't awful, I haven't posted in this spotlight yet. I think I already posted some other projection so I'll probably end up contradicting myself, but here goes:

Jackson's got a lot of miles, but he hasn't appeared to slow down yet. I think moving to a legitimate offense will breath some life into him. He's always been the consummate veteran - working hard and saying the right things. He's also been arguably the best back in the NFL at times. If he played on a halfway decent team, he'd have been right up there in conversations with LT and ADP. There is no facet of his game that isn't spectacular.

However, things are not perfect here in Atlanta. Sure, the offense has plenty of firepower, but the offensive line is poor at best after losing their center and right tackle. Jackson is probably used to this, but it should give us optimists pause.

But the good news is that they will still run the ball and he's got no real competition. I know there was a Quizz hype train last year that I was vehemently opposed to and after another crappy year, it appears Quizz is still nothing more than a role player. He catches passes very well, but he doesn't do a lot with it. I think he only had 1 rush over 20 yards last year. He should only touch the ball when Jackson is not needed or they want to give Jackson a breather.

275 carries x 4.3 ypc = 1200 yds 12 TD, 40 rec x 8 ypr = 320 yds 0 TD

 

Nucker101

Footballguy
Stinkin Ref said:
Still wondering why people give Quizz so much love. He has never really been that much of an impact player and if there was ever a time for him to showcase his "goods" and demand more touches, it would have been with the plodder Michael Turner in town. He is virtually undraftable to me right now. It seems like some people assume that he just HAS to be involved.

Jackson will be able to pretty much fall down for a yard and get 10+ goaline TD's, let alone the ones he will score from distance in the open space he will have and the matchups where he will have an advantage in that open space.

One could argue that this team has already has 3 receivers that demand double coverage. Think about that.

Jackson could get 5+ receiving TD's alone on screen passes or short play action sit down throws after Julio and Roddy take defenders down the field.

The other receivers are physical, good blocking receivers as well.

Jackson is a beast and a physical runner, in the open field, there will be a few guys that won't like to see him coming with a head of steam.

Fantasy=talent and opportunity....I'm actually trying to think of a more talented RB in a better "situation" and I can't come up with one.....

Sometimes we overanalyze and ignore things that are pretty obvious....I think Jackson is in line for a top 5 season...potentially top 3.....

 

We Tigers

Footballguy
Stinkin Ref said:
Still wondering why people give Quizz so much love. He has never really been that much of an impact player and if there was ever a time for him to showcase his "goods" and demand more touches, it would have been with the plodder Michael Turner in town. He is virtually undraftable to me right now. It seems like some people assume that he just HAS to be involved.
It's less about Quizz and more about the Falcons. They've given around 100 carries to change of pace backs every year since Smith came on. Even when Turner had 370 rushes in 2008, Jerious Norwood had 95 of his own. Quizz is going to see some work next year if they're at all consistent. I don't think that detracts from Jackson much, but if you're estimating total rushes for the team you almost have to take 100 right off the top.
 

Cookiemonster

Footballguy
I'm with those that think Quizz doesn't take any touches from Jackson. If anything, Jackson takes some touches from Quizz, because what Quizz is good at, Jackson is also very good at and he doesn't key the defense to a pass or a running play. He has also never had a passing game that could take the heat off him like he does now. I'm thinking he is in for a drastic bump in ypc and an absolute lock for double digit TDs rushing + a couple receiving. I'm on board with the thinking that he gets 295 carries at a big 4.7 ypc for 1385 and 12 TDs (in a similar offense, Willis McGahee had 4.4 ypc and I think Jackson is a much better runner at this point than McGahee). Another 45 catches for 375 and 2 scores. Big year for the big RB.

The thought of the lean on the passing game Atlanta has displayed recently has been in large part due to the decline of Michael Turner, as well as the addition of Julio and Matt Ryan's improvement. Turner got well over 300 carries a few times recently. I don't think Jackson is given 325+, but 300+ is not out of the question. 350 total touches is acceptable for a workhorse like Jackson.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I agree a lot with what Stinkin Refs post above and that is more how I felt about this situation for Jackson right after he signed. But I had to check my expectations somewhat because the offensive line in flux right now as I see that holding Jackson back somewhat this season. The other concern is the looming big 30 but that is minor as I think Jackson is still as good as he was in his prime or close enough. The question is for how long?

I also agree with Cookie about the distribution. I think the Falcons want to be a bit more balanced in their run/pass distribution than they were last season.

2011 Falcons 594pass attempts 453 rushing attempts. I really think this is where they want to be. That is enough rushing attempts for Quizz to get his also. The effective running = more 1st downs which allows the offense to end up with a similar number of passing attempts as they had in 2012 615pass attempts 378 rushing attempts. Those 75 rushing attempts in exchange for 21 passing attempts will allow the Falcons to protect their defense more with longer drives and the rushing attempts overall will be more effective thus leading to more of them.

ETA- The Dirty Word has rained on my hopes for him somewhat as well.

 
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Bri

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.
Why bother though?

There's a dreamy lineup to throw to and a speedy 3rd down back.

He's old and his playing style is downright brutal for hits.

Oh so many NFL teams have had their RBs limp into the playoffs and/or be forced to sit as the regular season closed. I think if the Falcs see an opportunity where resting Jackson is an option where they are not negatively affecting the O, then they do it-like on third downs.

This is a runner that was the whole offense at times and quite literally has been tackled by 5-6 guys at least 1000 times in his career.

It seems like Jax gets torn up every preseason-hammy, strained groin, etc.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.
Why bother though?

There's a dreamy lineup to throw to and a speedy 3rd down back.

He's old and his playing style is downright brutal for hits.

Oh so many NFL teams have had their RBs limp into the playoffs and/or be forced to sit as the regular season closed. I think if the Falcs see an opportunity where resting Jackson is an option where they are not negatively affecting the O, then they do it-like on third downs.

This is a runner that was the whole offense at times and quite literally has been tackled by 5-6 guys at least 1000 times in his career.

It seems like Jax gets torn up every preseason-hammy, strained groin, etc.
Why bother? Short answer: Jackson averaged 8.4 yards per reception for the Rams last year. Quizz averaged 7.6 yards per reception for the Falcons.

He's old? There have been 16 RBs manage 200+ fantasy points in their age 30 season. There are some pretty great RBs who have accomplished the feat. Perrenial pro bowlers. Hall of Famers. Jackson is in the conversation with some of these guys.

Each of them played at least 14 games, which Jackson has done in all but 2 of his seasons. 13 of the 16 managed double digit TDs. I think we can all agree Jackson has a very good shot at 10+ TDs. Only one of the 16 had 15 receptions or fewer, which was Corey Dillon in 2004, and each back remaining had at least 27 receptions. Jackson is highly likely to have 40+ receptions in this offense. His lowest total disregarding his rookie year is 38.

He definitely fits the criteria for becoming the 17th RB to reach 200+ fantasy points in his age 30 season.

 

cstu

Footballguy
A lot of folks have high expectations and expect SJax to be a nice steal after the 2nd/3rd round of redrafts. I think he will be solid but folks are overlooking the role of Quizz Rodgers on the team. Don't misunderstand, I am not suggesting Quizz is a feature back, far from it but has carved out his role on this team and he is definitely the 3rd down back. SJax is a 2 down back at this point IMO.

Don't discount Clabo leaving at RT, huge hole IMO and something that will hinder the running game some. Don't overlook SJax age, mileage, and possibility of missing more time. How will you feel if you grab him and then he misses a month in the middle of the season? I do think he can score a lot of short TDs though.

240-1,000-12 30-240 1,250 total yds and 12 TD, most of it on the ground.
30 receptions would be a career low for Jackson other than his rookie season. I understand your point with Quizz, but don't see him as the 3rd down back exclusively. Turner couldn't catch the ball consistently. Jackson can.

Less than 2 receptions per game? I don't see that.
Why bother though?

There's a dreamy lineup to throw to and a speedy 3rd down back.

He's old and his playing style is downright brutal for hits.

Oh so many NFL teams have had their RBs limp into the playoffs and/or be forced to sit as the regular season closed. I think if the Falcs see an opportunity where resting Jackson is an option where they are not negatively affecting the O, then they do it-like on third downs.

This is a runner that was the whole offense at times and quite literally has been tackled by 5-6 guys at least 1000 times in his career.

It seems like Jax gets torn up every preseason-hammy, strained groin, etc.
Why bother? Short answer: Jackson averaged 8.4 yards per reception for the Rams last year. Quizz averaged 7.6 yards per reception for the Falcons.

He's old? There have been 16 RBs manage 200+ fantasy points in their age 30 season. There are some pretty great RBs who have accomplished the feat. Perrenial pro bowlers. Hall of Famers. Jackson is in the conversation with some of these guys.

Each of them played at least 14 games, which Jackson has done in all but 2 of his seasons. 13 of the 16 managed double digit TDs. I think we can all agree Jackson has a very good shot at 10+ TDs. Only one of the 16 had 15 receptions or fewer, which was Corey Dillon in 2004, and each back remaining had at least 27 receptions. Jackson is highly likely to have 40+ receptions in this offense. His lowest total disregarding his rookie year is 38.

He definitely fits the criteria for becoming the 17th RB to reach 200+ fantasy points in his age 30 season.
SJax has the 11th highest number of carries (2397) through age 29. Smith, Sanders, Payton and Martin all were productive after 30 but those guys are the minority (~20% of the RB's with 1900+ carries through 29).

I like his odds but I also won't be surprised if he falls off a cliff.

 

Cookiemonster

Footballguy
SJax has the 11th highest number of carries (2397) through age 29. Smith, Sanders, Payton and Martin all were productive after 30 but those guys are the minority (~20% of the RB's with 1900+ carries through 29).

I like his odds but I also won't be surprised if he falls off a cliff.
Aren't the guys that have had the most carries in a career the ones more likely to get more carries after 30 anyways? They've proven to be the most talented and durable, so their talent lasts longer and their more likely to remain durable. What is the % of RBs that were productive after 30 that had > 2000 carries? 2250 carries? 2400 (closer to his #s)? I'd bet 1900 is a good cutoff for a low % to make that argument. I'd also knock Barry off that list, because he obviously was still in his prime when he walked away at 30.

 

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