Player Spotlight: Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Stevie Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

There are lots of changes with the Buffalo offense, so I would anticipate some challenges to projecting Steve Johnson as well as the entire team, but thought that there would be several comments at least.

Will Johnson continue to be the focal point receiver and will their offense be more successful in the first year of the Doug Marrone with their high-tempo game plan?

 

[Gottabesweet]

67-1070 6 TDs and continued bragging that he got over 1,000

 

[Borden]

I like Stevie in 3 WR leagues. Not crazy numbers but enough that if you draft solid your WR3 isn't an issue. The Bills have also been putting him in the slot which I think he is more suited to play.

85/1100/9

 

[Eminence]

I like him as depth.

 

[ghostguy123]

I would find it hard to believe he wouldnt get a significant amount of targets from a rookie Qb who will look to the veteran, especially if he is in the slot a lot more.

Nothing crazy, but I anticipate another top 20-25 finish at WR

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Would only select him as reserve WR.

62/770/4

 

[msommer]

The Bills have been pathetic the past three years. In that time Stevie has delivered between 76 and 82 receptions and just over 1000 yards - with a blocking TE as primary competition for targets, a QB that now is back to being what he should be (backup), but on the plus side a solid line and good (Jackson) to electric (Spiller) RB to keep things honest.

Enter a new coach with a new system, a cast-off QB (who might be scared of his own shadow) competing with an athletic rookie, several speedy options that could emerge at WR2, an interesting pass catching rookie TE, and a shift in who will carry the load at RB (Spiller as opposed to RBBC). Leaving was the best passblocking guard on the line and his back up - with only internal replacements.

Lots of uncertainty.

On the other hand Stevie is steady if not styling.

I'd say he can get 80 receptions for 1100 yards and 6 TDs this year as he benefits from not being the sole threat to be neutralised in the passing game

 

[NYJ]

I see him benefiting from more talent around him. The emergence of CJ Spiller plus the rookie WR's will give him more space to do his thing. I see similar production from the last 3 years. He'll get 75+ receptions and 1000+ yards with 6+ TD's at the very least.

Drafting him as your WR3 means you can take more chances later on (Kenny Britt, for example). He's a safe pick that people will overlook because he's not spectacular. Consistent production week to week.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Steve Johnson was one of my undervalued players from this article: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_projecting_receiving_yards

The good: Johnson gets a ton of targets on a percentage of team targets basis (he actually ranked 5th among all receivers).

The bad: the Bills ranked 23rd in pass attempts despite being a bad team. But with a new HC and a new QB, I don't think that last year's pass attempts number is predictive of much this year. While Manuel could run more, the Bills also seem intent on playing with a fast pace, which means more plays. If Buffalo jumps up to 560 pass attempts, that's good news for Johnson.

The other bad: Johnson's yards per target average was bad last year. But that's notoriously inconsistent from year to year, and with a new QB and better targets around him, that number should increase anyway.

In other words, Johnson has the potential to now get to 1200 yards if his team throws 560 teams, he keeps the same target ratio, 160, and he sees just a slight uptick in his yards per target to 7.5. His ADP of WR29 makes him undervalued. Unless Manuel just stinks it up or Johnson gets hurt, finishing at WR29 seems like the worst possible case scenario, and sneaking into the top 12 isn't unrealistic.

 

[FF Ninja]

Steve Johnson was one of my undervalued players from this article: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_projecting_receiving_yards

The good: Johnson gets a ton of targets on a percentage of team targets basis (he actually ranked 5th among all receivers).

The bad: the Bills ranked 23rd in pass attempts despite being a bad team. But with a new HC and a new QB, I don't think that last year's pass attempts number is predictive of much this year. While Manuel could run more, the Bills also seem intent on playing with a fast pace, which means more plays. If Buffalo jumps up to 560 pass attempts, that's good news for Johnson.

The other bad: Johnson's yards per target average was bad last year. But that's notoriously inconsistent from year to year, and with a new QB and better targets around him, that number should increase anyway.

In other words, Johnson has the potential to now get to 1200 yards if his team throws 560 teams, he keeps the same target ratio, 160, and he sees just a slight uptick in his yards per target to 7.5. His ADP of WR29 makes him undervalued. Unless Manuel just stinks it up or Johnson gets hurt, finishing at WR29 seems like the worst possible case scenario, and sneaking into the top 12 isn't unrealistic.

I agree that Stevie was a great value pick last year, but he's almost on a brand new team this year so looking at his target ratio and yards per target with Fitzpatrick and Chan Gailey means next to nothing for 2013. To me, Stevie is a total wildcard this year. I don't know how big his slice of the pie will be, how big the pie itself will be, or how good the pie will be. 560 passing attempts seems like a lot for a rookie QB.

Here are how some of the recent rookies who played 16 games faired:

Newton - 517 attempts

Ryan - 434 attempts

Wilson - 393 attempts

Luck - 627 attempts

RG3 + Cousins - 442 attempts

Dalton - 516 attempts

Flacco - 428 attempts

Bradford - 590 attempts

Tannehill - 484 attempts

Luck and Bradford are the only ones to break 520 attempts and Bradford put up a putrid 6.0 ypa.

So while I won't be shocked if Stevie does outplay his ADP (although I will be shocked if he outplays it to the tune of a top 12 WR), I think there's a very good chance that he's correctly valued as a WR3. Fitzpatrick was not a world beater, but he was not a horrible QB either. I think expecting Manuel to perform as well as the unspectacular veteran is expecting too much. There are just too many risks involved here for me to advocate targeting Stevie again this year. The offense might not pass enough, they might not focus on him as they have in the past, and the rookie QB could play like a rookie - so even if Stevie gets 160 targets, he could disappoint.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I like Stevie in 3 WR leagues. Not crazy numbers but enough that if you draft solid your WR3 isn't an issue. The Bills have also been putting him in the slot which I think he is more suited to play.

85/1100/9

Those are WR3 numbers?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here are how some of the recent rookies who played 16 games faired:Newton - 517 attempts

Ryan - 434 attempts

Wilson - 393 attempts

Luck - 627 attempts

RG3 + Cousins - 442 attempts

Dalton - 516 attempts

Flacco - 428 attempts

Bradford - 590 attempts

Tannehill - 484 attempts

Luck and Bradford are the only ones to break 520 attempts and Bradford put up a putrid 6.0 ypa.

So while I won't be shocked if Stevie does outplay his ADP (although I will be shocked if he outplays it to the tune of a top 12 WR), I think there's a very good chance that he's correctly valued as a WR3. Fitzpatrick was not a world beater, but he was not a horrible QB either. I think expecting Manuel to perform as well as the unspectacular veteran is expecting too much. There are just too many risks involved here for me to advocate targeting Stevie again this year. The offense might not pass enough, they might not focus on him as they have in the past, and the rookie QB could play like a rookie - so even if Stevie gets 160 targets, he could disappoint.

Ryan, Wilson, Dalton, Flacco, and RG3 were on playoff teams, so it made sense that they passed less often. I still expect Buffalo to be a weaker team and one that will be trailing more often than not.

Luck and Bradford played for teams that were trailing often and they both threw a ton of passes. Newton didn't, but he ran a ton. The Dolphins threw only 504 times last year, so that's a good example in the other direction. I agree that if Manuel is the QB and he runs a lot, that 560 might be too high. Part of my optimism there, though, is that I think the Bills could run an up-tempo offense. They can get a ton of speed on the field with Manuel, Spiller, TJ Graham, Marquise Goodwin, and Johnson.

 

[FF Ninja]

Here are how some of the recent rookies who played 16 games faired:Newton - 517 attempts

Ryan - 434 attempts

Wilson - 393 attempts

Luck - 627 attempts

RG3 + Cousins - 442 attempts

Dalton - 516 attempts

Flacco - 428 attempts

Bradford - 590 attempts

Tannehill - 484 attempts

Luck and Bradford are the only ones to break 520 attempts and Bradford put up a putrid 6.0 ypa.

So while I won't be shocked if Stevie does outplay his ADP (although I will be shocked if he outplays it to the tune of a top 12 WR), I think there's a very good chance that he's correctly valued as a WR3. Fitzpatrick was not a world beater, but he was not a horrible QB either. I think expecting Manuel to perform as well as the unspectacular veteran is expecting too much. There are just too many risks involved here for me to advocate targeting Stevie again this year. The offense might not pass enough, they might not focus on him as they have in the past, and the rookie QB could play like a rookie - so even if Stevie gets 160 targets, he could disappoint.

Ryan, Wilson, Dalton, Flacco, and RG3 were on playoff teams, so it made sense that they passed less often. I still expect Buffalo to be a weaker team and one that will be trailing more often than not.

Luck and Bradford played for teams that were trailing often and they both threw a ton of passes. Newton didn't, but he ran a ton. The Dolphins threw only 504 times last year, so that's a good example in the other direction. I agree that if Manuel is the QB and he runs a lot, that 560 might be too high. Part of my optimism there, though, is that I think the Bills could run an up-tempo offense. They can get a ton of speed on the field with Manuel, Spiller, TJ Graham, Marquise Goodwin, and Johnson.

I don't disagree with any of that. Some of those teams had much better defenses than the Bills, too, so they had the luxury of running a balanced offense rather than playing catch up. Buffalo was in the bottom third of the league in both yards and points last year and I don't expect that to magically change this year. But like you said, Manuel's running will likely detract from him chunking a ton of passes from the pocket. I can see things playing out as you've described with the up-tempo offense, I just personally feel like there is a less than 50% chance of it playing out like that.

I know Stevie is still the best target on this offense, but are you not worried that Manuel might not lock into him like Fitzpatrick did? He could still lead the team in targets and yet not approach the 148 he saw last year. And do you expect the quality of targets to be the same as those from Fitzpatrick? I don't have a good feel for what to expect from Manuel so maybe he'll shock me and perform more accurately than Fitzpatrick (60.6%). But just based on him being a rookie, I'm going to bet against that as well.

ETA: "bottom third in yards and points" is referring to defense

 

[Borden]

I like Stevie in 3 WR leagues. Not crazy numbers but enough that if you draft solid your WR3 isn't an issue. The Bills have also been putting him in the slot which I think he is more suited to play.

85/1100/9

Those are WR3 numbers?

Nope but if you draft right they are.

His ADP is WR35 and going in the 8th round right now and every year he seems over looked so most guys can draft him as their WR3. This year there is some legitimate concerns with his health his, a new coach and new QBs. Also I don't think he holds the perceived upside that most of the guys in front of him do.

 

[ol blues]

Stevie is rife with uncertainties. Who is the QB? Who are the other WRs? Is the team as bad as recent history suggests? Spiller is the RB....right? Stevie's healthy. Stevie's hurt. My guess is Stevie remains what he has always been: WR3 forever. In some drafts, however, he's going even later. So, if you believe he outperforms Desean, Miles, Britt, Austin, and Hilton, draft him. I don't.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Stevie is rife with uncertainties. Who is the QB? Who are the other WRs? Is the team as bad as recent history suggests? Spiller is the RB....right? Stevie's healthy. Stevie's hurt. My guess is Stevie remains what he has always been: WR3 forever. In some drafts, however, he's going even later. So, if you believe he outperforms Desean, Miles, Britt, Austin, and Hilton, draft him. I don't.

In the last three years, S.Johnson has finished WR18, WR16, and WR10 in PPR scoring. That isn't "WR3 forever".

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Stevie Johnson is a solid WR and one who will get slightly overlooked in most drafts because of the team he plays for. He is pretty consistent and can get open in the end zone. I will be willing to draft Stevie Johnson this year and think he'll have a sneaky good season.

74 receptions 1050 yards 7tds