Player Spotlight: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: T.Y. Hilton Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[pizzatyme]

Here are some things for everyone to consider when projecting TY Hilton:

Cons-

Upgraded from Avery to DHB which should steal some touches.

Added Bradshaw which should support the move to more balanced offense and steal touches.

Fleener is healthy to start the year and the TE will be heavily involved in the new OCs game plan and this should steal touches.

Play the NFC West which means Niners and Seahawks D!

Pros-

Brazil suspended 4 games which should bump touches.

He is a year wiser and no playing in a WCO passing attack which could mean more touches.

I'd say it's slightly lower numbers in receptions and yards, but a few more TDs.

 

[FF Ninja]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

 

[Sabertooth]

That was my thought? Must expect big things if he's not grouped in with the other wideouts.

 

[gianmarco]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Personally I think you're writing this guy off way too early. Here is something I wrote about him in the past here:

Just something to think about:

Stat line #1 : 50/861/7

Stat line #2: 64/865/5

Those belong to two rookie WRs last year. One of them is Justin Blackmon. The other, (the line with more TDs), belongs to Hilton.

The other interesting note about those 2 lines? Hilton only needed 90 targets to put those numbers while Blackmon needed 132. That's almost 50% more targets for comparable numbers (Blackmon had more catches but lower YPA and fewer TDs). And Blackmon is a stud.

Am I saying Hilton is better than Blackmon? No, not at all. But Hilton is far more than a Lance Moore clone.

Here's another interesting tidbit to keep in mind:

Since 1995 (the last 18 yrs), there have only been 3 WRs that have had five 100 yard games as a rookie: Julio Jones, Anquan Boldin,.....and TY Hilton.

Not Randy. Not Calvin. Not AJG. Not Andre Johnson. Not a whole lot of other impressive names.

Are 100 yd games the ultimate stat? Of course not. But they do indicate the potential a WR has of being able to make big plays and/or take over a game. And having that many in one season as a rookie is impressive however you slice it. I'll also add that in 3 of those 5 games, his longest reception was 43 yards (43, 40, and 36). So it's not as if he was hitting that 100 yard milestone on one single huge play.

I would recommend watching this and paying attention to the number of different routes he's running in these highlights:

TY Rookie year.

Another new rookie highlight video

Screens, slants, outs, posts, crossing patterns. He catches with his hands, makes over the shoulder catches (tracks well), doesn't take a lot of hits, has good speed, creates separation with his routes, catches the ball in traffic in the end zone. He's not just a one trick pony like I think many think simply catching long balls with speed.

He's never going to be a top 5-10 fantasy WR, but I think the kid has the goods and is going to be a solid producer.

 

[FF Ninja]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Personally I think you're writing this guy off way too early. Here is something I wrote about him in the past here:

Just something to think about:

Stat line #1 : 50/861/7

Stat line #2: 64/865/5

Those belong to two rookie WRs last year. One of them is Justin Blackmon. The other, (the line with more TDs), belongs to Hilton.

The other interesting note about those 2 lines? Hilton only needed 90 targets to put those numbers while Blackmon needed 132. That's almost 50% more targets for comparable numbers (Blackmon had more catches but lower YPA and fewer TDs). And Blackmon is a stud.

Am I saying Hilton is better than Blackmon? No, not at all. But Hilton is far more than a Lance Moore clone.

Here's another interesting tidbit to keep in mind:

Since 1995 (the last 18 yrs), there have only been 3 WRs that have had five 100 yard games as a rookie: Julio Jones, Anquan Boldin,.....and TY Hilton.

Not Randy. Not Calvin. Not AJG. Not Andre Johnson. Not a whole lot of other impressive names.

Are 100 yd games the ultimate stat? Of course not. But they do indicate the potential a WR has of being able to make big plays and/or take over a game. And having that many in one season as a rookie is impressive however you slice it. I'll also add that in 3 of those 5 games, his longest reception was 43 yards (43, 40, and 36). So it's not as if he was hitting that 100 yard milestone on one single huge play.

I would recommend watching this and paying attention to the number of different routes he's running in these highlights:

TY Rookie year.

Another new rookie highlight video

Screens, slants, outs, posts, crossing patterns. He catches with his hands, makes over the shoulder catches (tracks well), doesn't take a lot of hits, has good speed, creates separation with his routes, catches the ball in traffic in the end zone. He's not just a one trick pony like I think many think simply catching long balls with speed.

He's never going to be a top 5-10 fantasy WR, but I think the kid has the goods and is going to be a solid producer.

You make some good analysis on here, which I greatly appreciate, but this is not one of those times. The comparison to Blackmon couldn't mean less. He's still an unknown, so why compare them? Showing a similar/better statline compared against another rookie does not mean that this rookie is "far more than a Lance Moore clone" which nobody has asserted (although maybe they did in the other thread). I actually think Lance Moore is a pretty good WR. He can line up as an outside WR or a slot guy. Very versatile and has good hands. I'm not sure Hilton is nearly as versatile and I do know that his hands have been atrocious so far. To me, he'd be doing well to be a Lance Moore clone in a few years.

As for the 100 yard game stat, I think it is possibly meaningless. I definitely think it is not meaningful. He got behind coverage a few times, so what? Since 1995, how many rookies have gotten meaningful snaps on an offense that has passed the ball 627 times? Here's a fun fact: Andrew Luck led the NFL in pass attempts over 20 yards last year. How many rookies since 1995 have played on an offense that did that? Not trying to be rude, but he was simply the beneficiary of a very fortunate situation. Don't try to read into it too much with custom tailored stats. The Colts had very few passing options going into the season last year yet they threw the ball a ton AND they threw it deep more than any other team in the league.

So we're kind of a in a chicken or the egg situation. Did Andrew Luck/Bruce Arians make Hilton's stats or did Hilton do something special? I think you and I both know the answer here if we're honest with ourselves. There are only 3 rookies in the last 3 years that have put up this totally arbitrary stat because there have been very few rookies in a situation to do it. Most rookies don't get meaningful snaps and most WRs don't play on prolific passing attacks.

As a rookie Calvin Johnson had back spasms and had John Kitna throwing him the ball. As a rookie Andre Johnson started for a team that threw the ball 437 times with 295 of them coming from David Carr. Somehow I don't think Dalton (516 attempts) was as good of a rookie QB as Luck was, so it is no surprise that AJG didn't fit into this benchmark, either. Randy Moss didn't make your cut, but he did have four 100-yard games as well as a 99-yard game, a 95-yard game, and two 89-yard games, so sure 100 yards sounds like a nice cut-off but it's a bit disingenuous to make it sound statistically relevant that Hilton did something Moss didn't. We're talking about a mere technicality here.

So in the end, I don't think this five 100-yard games as a rookie means anything. There were probably only about 5-6 rookies that had a decent shot at putting up five 100-yard games in a 16 game season if you take into account # of snaps, # of total passes, and # of deep passes.

The Colts were basically starting from scratch last year. As they accumulate talent, Hilton could easily lose snaps/targets or get buried on the depth chart. He'll definitely have to improve his hands or learn how to play defensive back if he wants to stick around in the NFL, much less justify an ADP of WR32.

 

[Sabertooth]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

 

[FF Ninja]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

 

[pizzatyme]

Good points both ways, but let's not kill the guy for having a good year in a good offense. I honestly think Hilton will be running free quite a bit this season I'd Bradshaw/Ballard can produce average numbers.

With the WCO, look for DHB to stretch the field while Wayne, Hilton and the TEs take the short stuff.

Hilton is a nightmare for the 3rd DB!

 

[gianmarco]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

What does Luck leading the league in deep passes have to do with Hilton? You think that's all he does?

 

[meyerj31]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Not all leagues are created equal.

Hilton was WR19 last year in a league that rewards big plays (+points for long receptions, long TDs, and 100 yard games). He had 7 weeks in that league over 20 points and was the 8th highest scoring WR in the last half of the season, believe it or not.

In that league, I'm buying big time at his current price.

 

[FF Ninja]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

What does Luck leading the league in deep passes have to do with Hilton? You think that's all he does?

I think that was a critical element to his five 100-yard games which are implied to be some sort of stud indicator. I just checked and his five games were 113, 111, 102, 100, 100. I really cannot emphasize enough how little importance this strange statistic carries.

Your entire case for him consisted of his stat line vs. Blackmon, a random stat, and a youtube clip.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The loss of Arians/change in philosophy hurts him. I don't see a repeat of last years numbers.

 

[gianmarco]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

Also, why all this love for DHB? What exactly has he done in 4 years in the league? In a 1 ppr league, Hilton scored as much in his rookie year as DHB has at his best in 4 years in the league. In current depth charts, Hilton is listed as the starter opposite Wayne (not DHB, who is listed behind Wayne).

And despite Avery having 55 targets during the 2nd half of the season, it was Hilton who finished with far better numbers.

Avery -- 26/327/2 on 56 targets (12.5 ypc). He failed to top 37 yards in 6 of those 8 games (and both TDs in one game)

Hilton -- 26/506/5 on 46 targets (19.4 ypc). He scored in 4 of the 8 games and had three 100 yard games over that stretch.

There's a reason Avery is no longer with the Colts. And there's a reason DHB signed with the Colts for only a one year, $2.5M contract ($1M + $1.5M signing bonus).

You're giving way too much credit to DHB, who has thus been a disappointment in his career and whose contract doesn't show much enthusiasm by the Colts, and not enough to Hilton whose numbers improved as the year went on and were quite solid. From week 9 onward in the 2nd half of the season, Hilton finished WR15 in my 1 ppr league. If anything, he's being incredibly undervalued at WR40ish.

 

[gianmarco]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

What does Luck leading the league in deep passes have to do with Hilton? You think that's all he does?

I think that was a critical element to his five 100-yard games which are implied to be some sort of stud indicator. I just checked and his five games were 113, 111, 102, 100, 100. I really cannot emphasize enough how little importance this strange statistic carries.

Your entire case for him consisted of his stat line vs. Blackmon, a random stat, and a youtube clip.

You should pull up his game logs and play by play stats. Most of his passes were NOT deep passes nor was he only used as a deep threat. And as I stated above, deep balls were NOT a critical element to his 100 yd games as most of them only had plays of 30-40 yards as his biggest play.

 

[FF Ninja]

You should pull up his game logs and play by play stats. Most of his passes were NOT deep passes nor was he only used as a deep threat. And as I stated above, deep balls were NOT a critical element to his 100 yd games as most of them only had plays of 30-40 yards as his biggest play.

Considering he barely scraped 100 yards in those 5 games (average of 105.2 yds), a 30-40 yard play is a huge chunk of his yardage. But again, this 5 game stat means nothing. Who decided this was some sort of important indicator?

 

[Sabertooth]

You should pull up his game logs and play by play stats. Most of his passes were NOT deep passes nor was he only used as a deep threat. And as I stated above, deep balls were NOT a critical element to his 100 yd games as most of them only had plays of 30-40 yards as his biggest play.

Considering he barely scraped 100 yards in those 5 games (average of 105.2 yds), a 30-40 yard play is a huge chunk of his yardage. But again, this 5 game stat means nothing. Who decided this was some sort of important indicator?

We get a 2 point bonus for 100+ yards

 

[FF Ninja]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Not all leagues are created equal.

Hilton was WR19 last year in a league that rewards big plays (+points for long receptions, long TDs, and 100 yard games). He had 7 weeks in that league over 20 points and was the 8th highest scoring WR in the last half of the season, believe it or not.

In that league, I'm buying big time at his current price.

Not to be rude, but no one cares about your quirky league rules. For the sake of discussion, I think everyone should assume a fairly standard rule set. If we were talking specifically about a quirky league that like, then the ADP would be completely different than what we are all using. The WR32 and WR59 come from FBG ADP for non-PPR. If you've got wonky league rules you could submarine almost any viewpoint on a player by stating you play with a league that rewards points for shoe size, so it doesn't matter that this guy is going to lose goal line carries or something.

So while I acknowledge that not all leagues have the same rules, for spotlights, it is best to assume that they do or else discussion gets too fragmented.

 

[gianmarco]

You should pull up his game logs and play by play stats. Most of his passes were NOT deep passes nor was he only used as a deep threat. And as I stated above, deep balls were NOT a critical element to his 100 yd games as most of them only had plays of 30-40 yards as his biggest play.

Considering he barely scraped 100 yards in those 5 games (average of 105.2 yds), a 30-40 yard play is a huge chunk of his yardage. But again, this 5 game stat means nothing. Who decided this was some sort of important indicator?

You keep focusing on my mentioning his 100 yard games as if that's the only reason to like him or the only thing I mentioned as a positive for him. You did it earlier and you've done it again when I posted another response that again only partly focused on the 100 yard games.

And to answer your question as to why it's a "meaningless" stat, I posted above my thoughts on it in my first post. If you want to completely disregard it, that's fine. Here are my thoughts on it again:

Are 100 yd games the ultimate stat? Of course not. But they do indicate the potential a WR has of being able to make big plays and/or take over a game. And having that many in one season as a rookie is impressive however you slice it

That's my opinion on it and you can choose to disagree if you like. While a somewhat arbitrary milestone, many players don't hit it or only do so rarely. To consistently hit that number, especially as a WR (and a rookie at that), it shows an ability to both get open and make plays. You won't see any elite WRs not do this in some form or another. Now, it doesn't mean any guy that hits it a few times is going to be a top WR, but if a guy is consistently ending games with 60 yards/game, his upside is relatively limited. Again, you seem to think it's no big deal to hit that many 100 yd games as a rookie. I disagree.

But, if that's all you're going to focus on, then there's no need to respond any more. If you want to respond to his increasing ypc, TDs, catch %, type of catches, etc., then I'd love to listen. If you'd like to explain why you think DHB is a much better bet, then I'd love to listen.

 

[meyerj31]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Not all leagues are created equal.

Hilton was WR19 last year in a league that rewards big plays (+points for long receptions, long TDs, and 100 yard games). He had 7 weeks in that league over 20 points and was the 8th highest scoring WR in the last half of the season, believe it or not.

In that league, I'm buying big time at his current price.

Not to be rude, but no one cares about your quirky league rules. For the sake of discussion, I think everyone should assume a fairly standard rule set. If we were talking specifically about a quirky league that like, then the ADP would be completely different than what we are all using. The WR32 and WR59 come from FBG ADP for non-PPR. If you've got wonky league rules you could submarine almost any viewpoint on a player by stating you play with a league that rewards points for shoe size, so it doesn't matter that this guy is going to lose goal line carries or something.

So while I acknowledge that not all leagues have the same rules, for spotlights, it is best to assume that they do or else discussion gets too fragmented.

Yea, that's a pretty **** response, bro. Go take a walk.

Everyone plays in different leagues (whether PPR, non-PPR, return yardage, points for long plays, etc.) so it's important to illuminate how a player can perform in various league types instead of writing everyone off that doesn't perform well in standard non-PPR.

Eat a big ol'e bag.

 

[FF Ninja]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Not all leagues are created equal.

Hilton was WR19 last year in a league that rewards big plays (+points for long receptions, long TDs, and 100 yard games). He had 7 weeks in that league over 20 points and was the 8th highest scoring WR in the last half of the season, believe it or not.

In that league, I'm buying big time at his current price.

Not to be rude, but no one cares about your quirky league rules. For the sake of discussion, I think everyone should assume a fairly standard rule set. If we were talking specifically about a quirky league that like, then the ADP would be completely different than what we are all using. The WR32 and WR59 come from FBG ADP for non-PPR. If you've got wonky league rules you could submarine almost any viewpoint on a player by stating you play with a league that rewards points for shoe size, so it doesn't matter that this guy is going to lose goal line carries or something.

So while I acknowledge that not all leagues have the same rules, for spotlights, it is best to assume that they do or else discussion gets too fragmented.

Yea, that's a pretty **** response, bro. Go take a walk.

Everyone plays in different leagues (whether PPR, non-PPR, return yardage, points for long plays, etc.) so it's important to illuminate how a player can perform in various league types instead of writing everyone off that doesn't perform well in standard non-PPR.

Eat a big ol'e bag.

Yours was utterly useless. I obviously was not talking about league settings in which big plays are rewarded, so why try to refute my point with something I'm not even arguing against? I fully believe that we should assume standard rules for the point of on topic discussion. No point in fragmenting a spotlight into different categories.

I will leave all the bag for you to eat.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

I owned Hilton last year. I want to own him again. I like the volume.

 

[FF Ninja]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

Also, why all this love for DHB? What exactly has he done in 4 years in the league? In a 1 ppr league, Hilton scored as much in his rookie year as DHB has at his best in 4 years in the league. In current depth charts, Hilton is listed as the starter opposite Wayne (not DHB, who is listed behind Wayne).

And despite Avery having 55 targets during the 2nd half of the season, it was Hilton who finished with far better numbers.

Avery -- 26/327/2 on 56 targets (12.5 ypc). He failed to top 37 yards in 6 of those 8 games (and both TDs in one game)

Hilton -- 26/506/5 on 46 targets (19.4 ypc). He scored in 4 of the 8 games and had three 100 yard games over that stretch.

There's a reason Avery is no longer with the Colts. And there's a reason DHB signed with the Colts for only a one year, $2.5M contract ($1M + $1.5M signing bonus).

You're giving way too much credit to DHB, who has thus been a disappointment in his career and whose contract doesn't show much enthusiasm by the Colts, and not enough to Hilton whose numbers improved as the year went on and were quite solid. From week 9 onward in the 2nd half of the season, Hilton finished WR15 in my 1 ppr league. If anything, he's being incredibly undervalued at WR40ish.

DHB has indeed played in 4 seasons, but he's only had as many targets as Hilton in one season. Let's break down his career...

Rookie year - Russell/Gradkowski - 40 targets

2nd year - Campbell/Gradkowski - 65 targets

3rd year - Campbell/Palmer - 113 targets - Palmer started 9 games. In the last 7 games, DHB put up 37/541/3 which is pretty solid for a 7 game stretch.

4th year - Palmer - 80 targets - pretty brutal head/neck injury in week 3. Never quite looked the same that year, never got consistent targets.

So what I like about DHB is that his value is greatly depressed due to being in a complete crap situation. He shouldn't have gone as early as he did, but he was still considered a 1st round talent. He has a prototypical WR build with sick speed. He looked like the real deal during the only span in which he saw WR1 targets which was the last 7 games of his 3rd season. From what I've read, he's taken a lot of criticism but has handled it very well and is motivated to improve.

I'm not arguing I'd take DHB at WR32. I'm simply saying I'd take him over Hilton in a vacuum. Given their actual ADPs, I think Hilton is extremely overvalued and I see DHB as a cheap gamble.

I think you and meyerj31 are looking at last year's stats too much. As I've mentioned, this is going to be a new offensive system. I actually had not read this yet, but figured I'd look at this article to see who the new OC was going to be. Here is the snippet from the FBG article about coaching changes:

New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is going to implement a very different offense this year, although it will be unmistakably familiar for Andrew Luck as Hamilton was Luck's play-caller and offensive coordinator at Stanford University. Hamilton is a West Coast offense disciple, and his schemes will call for more efficient short- and intermediate throws with an eye toward dramatically improving Luck's completion rate and TD-to-INT ratio. Hamilton refers to this offense as the 'No Coast' offense, implying that he isn't beholden to a traditional West Coast approach, yet his history at Stanford says otherwise. Few teams could see as dramatic a shift this year as Indianapolis, and that includes a much bigger role for the running backs, both in terms of carries (the Colts will run more) and receptions (Bruce Arians didn't believe in throwing to the backs). It also raises the question of whether T.Y. Hilton is going to break out the way many predict, yet argues in favor of continued growth from 2nd year tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Not all leagues are created equal.

Hilton was WR19 last year in a league that rewards big plays (+points for long receptions, long TDs, and 100 yard games). He had 7 weeks in that league over 20 points and was the 8th highest scoring WR in the last half of the season, believe it or not.

In that league, I'm buying big time at his current price.

Not to be rude, but no one cares about your quirky league rules. For the sake of discussion, I think everyone should assume a fairly standard rule set. If we were talking specifically about a quirky league that like, then the ADP would be completely different than what we are all using. The WR32 and WR59 come from FBG ADP for non-PPR. If you've got wonky league rules you could submarine almost any viewpoint on a player by stating you play with a league that rewards points for shoe size, so it doesn't matter that this guy is going to lose goal line carries or something.

So while I acknowledge that not all leagues have the same rules, for spotlights, it is best to assume that they do or else discussion gets too fragmented.

Yea, that's a pretty **** response, bro. Go take a walk.

Everyone plays in different leagues (whether PPR, non-PPR, return yardage, points for long plays, etc.) so it's important to illuminate how a player can perform in various league types instead of writing everyone off that doesn't perform well in standard non-PPR.

Eat a big ol'e bag.

Yours was utterly useless. I obviously was not talking about league settings in which big plays are rewarded, so why try to refute my point with something I'm not even arguing against? I fully believe that we should assume standard rules for the point of on topic discussion. No point in fragmenting a spotlight into different categories.

I will leave all the bag for you to eat.

Every league I play in is PPR and bonus for 100+. I play in 4-6 leagues/year. I prefer leagues with this scoring but I don't seek them out specifically.

These rules are more the norm than the anomaly.

 

[meyerj31]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Not all leagues are created equal.

Hilton was WR19 last year in a league that rewards big plays (+points for long receptions, long TDs, and 100 yard games). He had 7 weeks in that league over 20 points and was the 8th highest scoring WR in the last half of the season, believe it or not.

In that league, I'm buying big time at his current price.

Not to be rude, but no one cares about your quirky league rules. For the sake of discussion, I think everyone should assume a fairly standard rule set. If we were talking specifically about a quirky league that like, then the ADP would be completely different than what we are all using. The WR32 and WR59 come from FBG ADP for non-PPR. If you've got wonky league rules you could submarine almost any viewpoint on a player by stating you play with a league that rewards points for shoe size, so it doesn't matter that this guy is going to lose goal line carries or something.

So while I acknowledge that not all leagues have the same rules, for spotlights, it is best to assume that they do or else discussion gets too fragmented.

Yea, that's a pretty **** response, bro. Go take a walk.

Everyone plays in different leagues (whether PPR, non-PPR, return yardage, points for long plays, etc.) so it's important to illuminate how a player can perform in various league types instead of writing everyone off that doesn't perform well in standard non-PPR.

Eat a big ol'e bag.

Yours was utterly useless. I obviously was not talking about league settings in which big plays are rewarded, so why try to refute my point with something I'm not even arguing against? I fully believe that we should assume standard rules for the point of on topic discussion. No point in fragmenting a spotlight into different categories.

I will leave all the bag for you to eat.

Every league I play in is PPR and bonus for 100+. I play in 4-6 leagues/year. I prefer leagues with this scoring but I don't seek them out specifically.

These rules are more the norm than the anomaly.

 

[FF Ninja]

You should pull up his game logs and play by play stats. Most of his passes were NOT deep passes nor was he only used as a deep threat. And as I stated above, deep balls were NOT a critical element to his 100 yd games as most of them only had plays of 30-40 yards as his biggest play.

Considering he barely scraped 100 yards in those 5 games (average of 105.2 yds), a 30-40 yard play is a huge chunk of his yardage. But again, this 5 game stat means nothing. Who decided this was some sort of important indicator?

You keep focusing on my mentioning his 100 yard games as if that's the only reason to like him or the only thing I mentioned as a positive for him. You did it earlier and you've done it again when I posted another response that again only partly focused on the 100 yard games.

And to answer your question as to why it's a "meaningless" stat, I posted above my thoughts on it in my first post. If you want to completely disregard it, that's fine. Here are my thoughts on it again:

Are 100 yd games the ultimate stat? Of course not. But they do indicate the potential a WR has of being able to make big plays and/or take over a game. And having that many in one season as a rookie is impressive however you slice it

That's my opinion on it and you can choose to disagree if you like. While a somewhat arbitrary milestone, many players don't hit it or only do so rarely. To consistently hit that number, especially as a WR (and a rookie at that), it shows an ability to both get open and make plays. You won't see any elite WRs not do this in some form or another. Now, it doesn't mean any guy that hits it a few times is going to be a top WR, but if a guy is consistently ending games with 60 yards/game, his upside is relatively limited. Again, you seem to think it's no big deal to hit that many 100 yd games as a rookie. I disagree.

But, if that's all you're going to focus on, then there's no need to respond any more. If you want to respond to his increasing ypc, TDs, catch %, type of catches, etc., then I'd love to listen. If you'd like to explain why you think DHB is a much better bet, then I'd love to listen.

That's because that's about the only thing that is concrete in your analysis. What am I going to talk about? The completely random comparison to Blackmon's statline? The youtube clip?

Your quote doesn't even jive with your other point. You say 100 yard games indicate a big play ability then you say he didn't even have that many big plays in his 100 yard games. And I'm not sure just breaking the 100 yard barrier counts as taking over a game.

One could counter that his 526 yards in those 5 games indicates his potential to disappear in other games, as that was 61% of his yardage in just 5 games, leaving an average of only 30 yards per game and 2 TDs in the other 11. But really, I don't think he's a bad player. He's a small, fast guy with bad hands. Seems like the kind of guy you use in trick plays or maybe you slide him in as a slot player when you aren't in a 2 TE set. And maybe he does develop into a Steve Smith. I just think the odds are not good. If they were, I wouldn't be referring to the only other relevant short WR by name. (Ok, ok, Santana Moss and DeSean Jackson count but there aren't many!)

Bottom line is that last year is over and they've brought in some better competition than Avery and will be overhauling the offense. Hilton will have to impress the new OC and fit in the scheme. He'll also need to greatly reduce those drops (which somehow gets overlooked by his fans). It's possible he sticks as the WR2, but a pricetag of WR32 is very hefty for a guy in such an uncertain situation. There's a lot of proven talent on the board there. I'd take all the guys going right after him over him, but particularly I'd like Miles Austin (only gamble is on hamstring health) or Kenny Britt (contract year).

 

[donkshow]

I'd like to get him as my WR4. His ADP is mid WR3.

I think you're overrating the pass attempts last season. Of course he'll pass much less, but he's also going to complete much more. Luck will put up similar Yards and more TD's, along with less INT's. His completion rate moving up will account for his lower amount of pass attempts.

I expect similar numbers.

 

[GROMS]

This guy got his own spotlight?

Currently WR32. Led the league in drop rate last year (dropped 1 pass per 6 catchable). Gained DHB as competition, lost Avery.

DHB has been criticized in the past for his hands, but can they be worse than Hilton? Plus, DHB is 6'2" 210 vs. Hilton who is 5'9" 183. Obviously Steve Smith is the exception to that rule, but if we're playing the odds, I'd advise betting on the prototypical WR if the price is similar.

I want nothing to do with this guy at WR32. I'd take DHB over him in a vacuum anyway, so given that Hilton is WR32 and DHB is WR59, easy choice.

Not all leagues are created equal.

Hilton was WR19 last year in a league that rewards big plays (+points for long receptions, long TDs, and 100 yard games). He had 7 weeks in that league over 20 points and was the 8th highest scoring WR in the last half of the season, believe it or not.

In that league, I'm buying big time at his current price.

Not to be rude, but no one cares about your quirky league rules. For the sake of discussion, I think everyone should assume a fairly standard rule set. If we were talking specifically about a quirky league that like, then the ADP would be completely different than what we are all using. The WR32 and WR59 come from FBG ADP for non-PPR. If you've got wonky league rules you could submarine almost any viewpoint on a player by stating you play with a league that rewards points for shoe size, so it doesn't matter that this guy is going to lose goal line carries or something.

So while I acknowledge that not all leagues have the same rules, for spotlights, it is best to assume that they do or else discussion gets too fragmented.

I don't think this is quirky. Why is it quirky? Because it's different than yours? Most of the leagues I play in reward for extra yards, points, etc.

 

[Easy Money]

Hilton 115 targets 69 catches x 1100 yards x 9 td's

10 rushes x 95 yards x 1 td

Hilton has been putting in lots of work and in his own words only dropped one ball in the last month.

quote

“I have to work on my drops. I had way too many of them last year. That’s not like me,” said Hilton. “Every day, I’m catching a lot of balls. I catch them before and after practice. I’m making sure I get my catches. Throughout the week, I make sure I have no drops.

“It’s going well for me. I only had one drop in the last month. Right now, it’s looking real good. As long as I work on catching the ball, looking it into my hands and work on the fundamentals, I’ll be good.”

http://www.colts.com/news/article-1/HILTON-TARGETS-IMPROVEMENT/46944419-4216-4aec-a1b9-20cd3afcb0bb

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I'm seeing a lot of hype on DHB as if he's done anything notable in the NFL. Aside from 1 year where he appeared to be on the rise (and that was 2 seasons ago), this guy has career bye week filler written all over him. Meanwhile, TY put up a VERY respectable rookie year and has the best rookie QB since (name your class of 1983 QB here). I may draft TY at the right price and I won't be drafting DHB at any price.

 

[ol blues]

It's very hard to like either Hilton or DHB in the Precision West Coast Offense that the new OC preaches for, absent a significant improvement in route running, neither is well suited for it. This offense figures to be far more friendly to Wayne and the TEs than to either Hilton or DHB. While you have to believe that Hilton has more room for improvement than DHB, it's hard to see either quantity or quality repetitions, much less improvements, for either one. Perhaps the preseason will hold a surprise, but I expect regression for Hilton this season.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

A couple tidbits from RW:

T.Y. Hilton caught eight passes for 66 yards at Baltimore in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
His 13 targets were second only to Reggie Wayne's 18.

... Hilton finished 25th in fantasy points while outproducing Wayne in the second half of the season.

He was the no. 2 rookie WR in receiving yards and the no. 1 rookie in TDs.

536 total yards / 5 TD's in the 2nd half?

Luck should be getting better in his second year.

Who do you think is more likely to flop, Hilton or DHB? Talk about drops and bad hands, that's DHB. TY comes in as a rook with Luck and he could grow with him.

Look at games 8-16, plus the playoff game. TYH really only had one poor outing, vs Jax, in week 8, when you realize he had a KO return for a TD in one game (I know, not receiving, but it tells me he made a big play there nonetheless), another vs KC was just a typical KC end of year slog. He finishes strong and he's the one with the history with Luck, not DHB. Also how much playing time advantage will DHB really get? That's not set in stone yet.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HiltT.00/gamelog//

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't think this is quirky. Why is it quirky? Because it's different than yours? Most of the leagues I play in reward for extra yards, points, etc.

I know they exist. But they are certainly not the norm. I don't doubt that most of the leagues you play in reward extra yards, but do they reward long receptions? Long TDs? Maybe, maybe not. There are a million different combinations of these leagues. One league might only have extra points for 100 yard games. One league might not, but it might reward extra points for 40+ yard receptions. Bottom line is that probably less than 10% of leagues have any of these escalators, much less have a common set that would make them pertinent for reference in a spotlight discussion.

His was simply a snarky retort to something no one was talking about - it was clear that was not what I was talking about for sure. On top of that, it was dumb because the entire offense is going to change. Luck led the league in deep passes last year. That surely played a role in producing big plays for Hilton which are rewarded in his league. The new OC is likely going to focus on the short game, so not only was his snarky comment unrelated, but it was also poorly founded based only on last year without looking ahead at the changing circumstances.

 

[Shutout]

The loss of Arians/change in philosophy hurts him. I don't see a repeat of last years numbers.

Agree.

Two TEs on the field more + completely comfortable with Wayne as the clutch guy + presence of Bradshaw. This has the look of one of those gigs where Hilton would play a "stretch the field" role. While that could be great, ala Garcon, I don't think it translates here because the targets just can't be there. ALso, with DHB there, even those short "speedy" targets that Garcon used to get in relatively short spaces will probably be deferred to DHB or the TEs just because they are such bigger targets.

I agree with FF Ninja above in saying that given their respective ADPs, I would be just as happy to take DHB.

 

[WickedCanRest]

I'm a huge T.Y. Hilton supporter. However, I should caveat that with the fact that I do believe at a certain point, Reggie Wayne is going to have to stop producing. First of all, I know that DHB is ahead of him on the depth chart, but really what kind of obstacle is that? I know he was dealt a pretty poor hand in Oakland, but color me among those that think at least some of it was on his inability to catch the ball. Second point, I know that Pep Hamilton is taking over and it's a supposedly slightly different offense, but I refuse to believe that a guy like Hilton, with his natural athletic ability can't produce or highlight himself enough to the coaching staff to have plays designed for him. I think him and Luck really started to develop something throughout the year last year and you know that he's good for a few long ones regardless of the offense they throw out there.

I've got him at 65 Catches, 950 Yards (maybe upside to 1000), 10 TD with a little more upside overall.

 

[gianmarco]

I'm a huge T.Y. Hilton supporter. However, I should caveat that with the fact that I do believe at a certain point, Reggie Wayne is going to have to stop producing. First of all, I know that DHB is ahead of him on the depth chart, but really what kind of obstacle is that? I know he was dealt a pretty poor hand in Oakland, but color me among those that think at least some of it was on his inability to catch the ball. Second point, I know that Pep Hamilton is taking over and it's a supposedly slightly different offense, but I refuse to believe that a guy like Hilton, with his natural athletic ability can't produce or highlight himself enough to the coaching staff to have plays designed for him. I think him and Luck really started to develop something throughout the year last year and you know that he's good for a few long ones regardless of the offense they throw out there.

I've got him at 65 Catches, 950 Yards (maybe upside to 1000), 10 TD with a little more upside overall.

How do you know this? Any link to a depth chart showing DHB ahead of Hilton? Every one I've seen has Hilton starting opposite Wayne.

 

[WickedCanRest]

Hey gianmarco, I suppose I should have been more clear. Pulled a depth chart down off "ourlads." If DHB is not ahead of him I'm even more in on Hilton. Sorry for not siting the source there. Happy 4th

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

The loss of Arians/change in philosophy hurts him. I don't see a repeat of last years numbers.

Agree.

Two TEs on the field more + completely comfortable with Wayne as the clutch guy + presence of Bradshaw. This has the look of one of those gigs where Hilton would play a "stretch the field" role. While that could be great, ala Garcon, I don't think it translates here because the targets just can't be there. ALso, with DHB there, even those short "speedy" targets that Garcon used to get in relatively short spaces will probably be deferred to DHB or the TEs just because they are such bigger targets.

I agree with FF Ninja above in saying that given their respective ADPs, I would be just as happy to take DHB.

I might take both.

The #2 WR on the team will payoff nicely. Getting both locks the spot up and protects against injury or poor play. And if Reggie suffers an injury, might have some matchups justifying playing both.

The yards will be there, Will the TDs?

 

[tdmills]

It's very hard to like either Hilton or DHB in the Precision West Coast Offense that the new OC preaches for, absent a significant improvement in route running, neither is well suited for it. This offense figures to be far more friendly to Wayne and the TEs than to either Hilton or DHB. While you have to believe that Hilton has more room for improvement than DHB, it's hard to see either quantity or quality repetitions, much less improvements, for either one. Perhaps the preseason will hold a surprise, but I expect regression for Hilton this season.

Best post in here and nobody acknowledged it. While DHB and Hilton can work in a WCO, it's not ideal for them.

 

[fightingillini]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

Also, why all this love for DHB? What exactly has he done in 4 years in the league? In a 1 ppr league, Hilton scored as much in his rookie year as DHB has at his best in 4 years in the league. In current depth charts, Hilton is listed as the starter opposite Wayne (not DHB, who is listed behind Wayne).

And despite Avery having 55 targets during the 2nd half of the season, it was Hilton who finished with far better numbers.

Avery -- 26/327/2 on 56 targets (12.5 ypc). He failed to top 37 yards in 6 of those 8 games (and both TDs in one game)

Hilton -- 26/506/5 on 46 targets (19.4 ypc). He scored in 4 of the 8 games and had three 100 yard games over that stretch.

There's a reason Avery is no longer with the Colts. And there's a reason DHB signed with the Colts for only a one year, $2.5M contract ($1M + $1.5M signing bonus).

You're giving way too much credit to DHB, who has thus been a disappointment in his career and whose contract doesn't show much enthusiasm by the Colts, and not enough to Hilton whose numbers improved as the year went on and were quite solid. From week 9 onward in the 2nd half of the season, Hilton finished WR15 in my 1 ppr league. If anything, he's being incredibly undervalued at WR40ish.

Yeah, this is the main flaw in FF Ninja's logic. I think he assumes DHB is going to surpass Hilton since DHB has a more protypical WR size. There's a reason why OAK let him go.....he's not that good. Drops a lot of passes and doesn't run really good routes.

That said, I agree with Ninja that DHB is a great buy at WR59, becuase there is that chance that he does surpass Hilton as the #2WR, for the reason that a change of scenery (and a better QB) really helps DHB improve.

And there is the 3rd point that....someday Reggie Wayne is going to slow down. Maybe it's this year, maybe not. There is going to be a time where some other IND WR is going to be the main guy. Not sure if Hilton can handle that, but there could be a more even distribution of targets in IND.

I think Hilton is an OK buy and DHB is a very good buy at their respective ADPs.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

It's very hard to like either Hilton or DHB in the Precision West Coast Offense that the new OC preaches for, absent a significant improvement in route running, neither is well suited for it. This offense figures to be far more friendly to Wayne and the TEs than to either Hilton or DHB. While you have to believe that Hilton has more room for improvement than DHB, it's hard to see either quantity or quality repetitions, much less improvements, for either one. Perhaps the preseason will hold a surprise, but I expect regression for Hilton this season.

Best post in here and nobody acknowledged it. While DHB and Hilton can work in a WCO, it's not ideal for them.

I disagree in DHB. Unfortunately (or fortunately for the current system) in his time in Oakland, he was not used as a deep threat/burner like he was at Maryland. He ran a lot of WCO routes like slants, quick outs, and digs. The QBs just had shoddy accuracy and got him nearly killed more than a few times. Luck should be a drastic improvement, and I think DHB can make a living with the slant routes with his size and speed. I'm looking to buy on him. You can have Hilton.

 

[Rebel Ted]

I am surprised to see so many thinking the potential and ceiling of Hilton is so low and one-dimensional as just a deep threat. I know it is not a perfect comparison as Randall Cobb is a bit bigger, but I don't see any reason why Hilton can't have his type of success (80 Rec. 10 TD). Hilton is actually faster (4.34 vs 4.46) and had a rookie season that indicates he has more talent that people thought. He has a great young QB to throw to him and a desire to get even better.

I would gladly take Hilton over DHB all day.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

Also, why all this love for DHB? What exactly has he done in 4 years in the league? In a 1 ppr league, Hilton scored as much in his rookie year as DHB has at his best in 4 years in the league. In current depth charts, Hilton is listed as the starter opposite Wayne (not DHB, who is listed behind Wayne).

And despite Avery having 55 targets during the 2nd half of the season, it was Hilton who finished with far better numbers.

Avery -- 26/327/2 on 56 targets (12.5 ypc). He failed to top 37 yards in 6 of those 8 games (and both TDs in one game)

Hilton -- 26/506/5 on 46 targets (19.4 ypc). He scored in 4 of the 8 games and had three 100 yard games over that stretch.

There's a reason Avery is no longer with the Colts. And there's a reason DHB signed with the Colts for only a one year, $2.5M contract ($1M + $1.5M signing bonus).

You're giving way too much credit to DHB, who has thus been a disappointment in his career and whose contract doesn't show much enthusiasm by the Colts, and not enough to Hilton whose numbers improved as the year went on and were quite solid. From week 9 onward in the 2nd half of the season, Hilton finished WR15 in my 1 ppr league. If anything, he's being incredibly undervalued at WR40ish.

Yeah, this is the main flaw in FF Ninja's logic. I think he assumes DHB is going to surpass Hilton since DHB has a more protypical WR size. There's a reason why OAK let him go.....he's not that good. Drops a lot of passes and doesn't run really good routes.

That said, I agree with Ninja that DHB is a great buy at WR59, becuase there is that chance that he does surpass Hilton as the #2WR, for the reason that a change of scenery (and a better QB) really helps DHB improve.

And there is the 3rd point that....someday Reggie Wayne is going to slow down. Maybe it's this year, maybe not. There is going to be a time where some other IND WR is going to be the main guy. Not sure if Hilton can handle that, but there could be a more even distribution of targets in IND.

I think Hilton is an OK buy and DHB is a very good buy at their respective ADPs.

It's difficult to measure any Raider's value post-Raiders. It's an NFL wasteland where players don't give their all, players whose careers are thought to be over, only to be proven wrong in embarrassing fashion. Exhibit A, Randy Moss. Exhibit B, Charles Woodson. Raider QBs have been so bad for so long (as have offensive schemes in general), it's hard to tell how good or bad a Raider WR really is. Some flash great talent - Denarious Moore - but I suspect most don't get a chance to show their best stuff.

I don't think there's much chance DHB is worse, skill-wise, than he's exhibited in Oakland. He could be considerably better, so his upside gap could be huge. But he has to crack the starting lineup.

 

[tdmills]

It's very hard to like either Hilton or DHB in the Precision West Coast Offense that the new OC preaches for, absent a significant improvement in route running, neither is well suited for it. This offense figures to be far more friendly to Wayne and the TEs than to either Hilton or DHB. While you have to believe that Hilton has more room for improvement than DHB, it's hard to see either quantity or quality repetitions, much less improvements, for either one. Perhaps the preseason will hold a surprise, but I expect regression for Hilton this season.

Best post in here and nobody acknowledged it. While DHB and Hilton can work in a WCO, it's not ideal for them.

I disagree in DHB. Unfortunately (or fortunately for the current system) in his time in Oakland, he was not used as a deep threat/burner like he was at Maryland. He ran a lot of WCO routes like slants, quick outs, and digs. The QBs just had shoddy accuracy and got him nearly killed more than a few times. Luck should be a drastic improvement, and I think DHB can make a living with the slant routes with his size and speed. I'm looking to buy on him. You can have Hilton.

The key word I said was "ideal". As shown in Oakland where he didn't excel(QB play hurt him as well) is he wasn't a great fit in that offense. He was a great fit in Maryland's vertical attack. Now he's back in a WCO, short passing concepts. If you think it was all QB play, sure go ahead and buy DHB. But I think it was a combination of offensive structure + QB play, which makes the WCO less than ideal for DHB's talents.

 

[meyerj31]

I am surprised to see so many thinking the potential and ceiling of Hilton is so low and one-dimensional as just a deep threat. I know it is not a perfect comparison as Randall Cobb is a bit bigger, but I don't see any reason why Hilton can't have his type of success (80 Rec. 10 TD). Hilton is actually faster (4.34 vs 4.46) and had a rookie season that indicates he has more talent that people thought. He has a great young QB to throw to him and a desire to get even better.

I would gladly take Hilton over DHB all day.

I really did not like the comparison to Cobb right away, but the more I look at him it's not too absurd. Hilton, like Cobb, came from a mid-major and played almost every offensive position. Neither player has ideal size but both have the athleticism to play hybrid roles and be effective at the NFL level. Both are also elusive, smart, fast, and will play return roles as well as working out of the slot.

At this point I think a lot of his fantasy success is tied to how the coaching staff utilizes him. If the Colts go with a straight WCO-style attack and Hilton plays most of his snaps in the slot then he has the potential to get a lot of targets. I see DHB being the one-trick speed pony clearing it out while Wayne, Hilton, Fleener, and the RBs work underneath. The Colts could operate as a poor-man's version of Green Bay, and we know how many targets the slot receiver can get in that offense (Jennings, now Cobb).

It's not absurd... interesting thought. Good post.

 

[Raider Nation]

Video profile

There is also a good accompanying article on him in SI this week, but I can't find it online just yet.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

Also, why all this love for DHB? What exactly has he done in 4 years in the league? In a 1 ppr league, Hilton scored as much in his rookie year as DHB has at his best in 4 years in the league. In current depth charts, Hilton is listed as the starter opposite Wayne (not DHB, who is listed behind Wayne).

And despite Avery having 55 targets during the 2nd half of the season, it was Hilton who finished with far better numbers.

Avery -- 26/327/2 on 56 targets (12.5 ypc). He failed to top 37 yards in 6 of those 8 games (and both TDs in one game)

Hilton -- 26/506/5 on 46 targets (19.4 ypc). He scored in 4 of the 8 games and had three 100 yard games over that stretch.

There's a reason Avery is no longer with the Colts. And there's a reason DHB signed with the Colts for only a one year, $2.5M contract ($1M + $1.5M signing bonus).

You're giving way too much credit to DHB, who has thus been a disappointment in his career and whose contract doesn't show much enthusiasm by the Colts, and not enough to Hilton whose numbers improved as the year went on and were quite solid. From week 9 onward in the 2nd half of the season, Hilton finished WR15 in my 1 ppr league. If anything, he's being incredibly undervalued at WR40ish.

Yeah, this is the main flaw in FF Ninja's logic. I think he assumes DHB is going to surpass Hilton since DHB has a more protypical WR size. There's a reason why OAK let him go.....he's not that good. Drops a lot of passes and doesn't run really good routes.

That said, I agree with Ninja that DHB is a great buy at WR59, becuase there is that chance that he does surpass Hilton as the #2WR, for the reason that a change of scenery (and a better QB) really helps DHB improve.

And there is the 3rd point that....someday Reggie Wayne is going to slow down. Maybe it's this year, maybe not. There is going to be a time where some other IND WR is going to be the main guy. Not sure if Hilton can handle that, but there could be a more even distribution of targets in IND.

I think Hilton is an OK buy and DHB is a very good buy at their respective ADPs.

Heyward-Bey was really raw coming out of college and mismanaged by the Raider's coaching staff. He has shown improvement in all the areas you're complaining about in the past few years. Oak tried to force him into a one dimensional burner role that he was ill-suited for. Oak cut him because Oak's cap situation is horrendous and they are cleaning house. Both Hilton and Avery were league leaders in dropped catchable passes according to profootballfocus, I think DHB is going to end up an improvement over both of them.

 

[Raider Nation]

Heyward-Bey was really raw coming out of college and mismanaged by the Raider's coaching staff. He has shown improvement in all the areas you're complaining about in the past few years. Oak tried to force him into a one dimensional burner role that he was ill-suited for.

His YPC each of his 4 years were remarkably steady: between 13.8 and 15.2 YPR every season. He finally became capable of working intermediate routes the last couple of years. But his biggest problem has always been his stone hands.

For the record, I'd much much much rather have Hilton.

 

[cstu]

Heyward-Bey was really raw coming out of college and mismanaged by the Raider's coaching staff. He has shown improvement in all the areas you're complaining about in the past few years. Oak tried to force him into a one dimensional burner role that he was ill-suited for.

His YPC each of his 4 years were remarkably steady: between 13.8 and 15.2 YPR every season. He finally became capable of working intermediate routes the last couple of years. But his biggest problem has always been his stone hands.

For the record, I'd much much much rather have Hilton.

I'm confused at why Mike Williams is considered such a good receiver and DHB is bum when the primary difference between the two the past two years has been in targets.

 

[FF Ninja]

Luck made him? Well guess what, Luck can make him again. I don't care if its a chicken or egg really. As long as you get the points.

I think you could reasonably expect a slight bump from last year. Luck will be better and so will Hilton.

He was pretty much WR2a to Avery's WR2. In the second half of the season Avery got 55 targets while Hilton got 46. This year the TEs have progressed (they typically take a bit longer than WRs to learn the NFL) and they've signed DHB. To me, DHB > Avery.

And I think you missed two things. First I said Luck/Arians made Hilton. Second, Luck led the league in deep passes. I bolded it the first time, but maybe that didn't stick. This year they've signed Bradshaw and have a totally new offense. So yeah, last year =/= this year. Age old fantasy football mistake.

Also, why all this love for DHB? What exactly has he done in 4 years in the league? In a 1 ppr league, Hilton scored as much in his rookie year as DHB has at his best in 4 years in the league. In current depth charts, Hilton is listed as the starter opposite Wayne (not DHB, who is listed behind Wayne).

And despite Avery having 55 targets during the 2nd half of the season, it was Hilton who finished with far better numbers.

Avery -- 26/327/2 on 56 targets (12.5 ypc). He failed to top 37 yards in 6 of those 8 games (and both TDs in one game)

Hilton -- 26/506/5 on 46 targets (19.4 ypc). He scored in 4 of the 8 games and had three 100 yard games over that stretch.

There's a reason Avery is no longer with the Colts. And there's a reason DHB signed with the Colts for only a one year, $2.5M contract ($1M + $1.5M signing bonus).

You're giving way too much credit to DHB, who has thus been a disappointment in his career and whose contract doesn't show much enthusiasm by the Colts, and not enough to Hilton whose numbers improved as the year went on and were quite solid. From week 9 onward in the 2nd half of the season, Hilton finished WR15 in my 1 ppr league. If anything, he's being incredibly undervalued at WR40ish.

Yeah, this is the main flaw in FF Ninja's logic. I think he assumes DHB is going to surpass Hilton since DHB has a more protypical WR size. There's a reason why OAK let him go.....he's not that good. Drops a lot of passes and doesn't run really good routes.

That said, I agree with Ninja that DHB is a great buy at WR59, becuase there is that chance that he does surpass Hilton as the #2WR, for the reason that a change of scenery (and a better QB) really helps DHB improve.

And there is the 3rd point that....someday Reggie Wayne is going to slow down. Maybe it's this year, maybe not. There is going to be a time where some other IND WR is going to be the main guy. Not sure if Hilton can handle that, but there could be a more even distribution of targets in IND.

I think Hilton is an OK buy and DHB is a very good buy at their respective ADPs.

At no point did I assert that prototypical size was the sole reason DHB would beat out Hilton. I said that was one thing he had going for him. I would also like to advise against blindly saying "well, Oakland's management let him go, so he must suck." That team is in disarray. How many QBs and coaches have they gone through in the last decade? They currently are probably rolling out Matt Flynn this year, so why spend money on WRs? Streater looked pretty damn good last year and Moore is still very cheap. Maybe Ford will be healthy. From my perspective, they had no incentive to spend money on a position that was probably going to be held back by the QB anyway. They have much more pressing needs than the WR position and they might as well see what they've got in Streater and Moore.

It's funny you say DHB drops a lot of passes when Hilton led the league in drop % last year. I consider this one of the few hands battles that DHB is clearly the winner. I can't speak to his route running, but by all accounts he's a pretty solid, dedicated guy so I don't doubt that he'll do alright in this component.

I really thought he had turned the corner in 2011 when Palmer came on board. That 37/541/3 in the final 7 games was very promising. Then he got injured early and the whole offense somehow took several steps back from the year before despite Palmer actually getting in an offseason. I guess we can look at this as a red flag, but generally, when an entire offense craps the bed, I don't place a whole lot of blame on any one player. That zone blocking system just didn't work for that team and set them way back. You know you screwed up when your QB does better coming off of a couch than when he gets in a whole offseason of work in a system.

I hate to be picking nits since you said you agree that DHB is good value, but I gotta advise against Hilton at WR32. That is a steep price. Look at the other guys around there. Some much safer bets with higher ceilings. My personal favorite is Miles Austin (WR34).