Player Spotlight: Tatum Bell (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tatum Bell, RB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Tatum Bell Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[P Boy]

How can this not erupt into a classic pissing contest? I find it hard to believe there's no reply yet, especially given that the DEN RB breakdown spills into unrelated threads.

Everything coming from the Broncos decision makers have said is that Bell is a situational RB. The DEN beat writers have confirmed exactly that. Bell has an injury history that is significant for a 2nd year RB, and his production really falls off the table after 10 carries. Everything supports what the DEN coaching staff & management is saying - he'll be limited in his touches despite his homerun ability. Dayne is number 1 on the depth chart, and despite Bell's going public & complaining nothing is changing.

Make mine:

Bell

187 carries 992 yds 9 TDs rushing

21 receptions 129 yds 0 TDs receiving

 

[Andy Dufresne]

It seems to me that if Bell hasn't won the starting job yet, he never will.

I can't even begin to predict. I think Denver is making a mistake heading into the season with this RB corps. Especially for a team that's so close.

 

[zamboni]

It seems to me that if Bell hasn't won the starting job yet, he never will.

I'm starting to think the same thing, as Denver RBs have seemingly been drafted to be the guy (Portis and Bell) or come from nowhere (everyone else) before Shanny moves onto the next flavor.All that said, it's hard to get overly excited about Dayne, Sapp or Cobbs either, so this could go in any of several directions.

 

[joffer]

I think Denver is making a mistake heading into the season with this RB corps. Especially for a team that's so close.

Bell:

215/1016/8 rush

22/133/0 receive

 

[P Boy]

I think Denver is making a mistake heading into the season with this RB corps. Especially for a team that's so close.

It's so much fun to hear from FF owners who know more about RB performance in the NFL than Shanahan does.

 

[joffer]

I think Denver is making a mistake heading into the season with this RB corps.  Especially for a team that's so close.

It's so much fun to hear from FF owners who know more about RB performance in the NFL than Shanahan does.

:cough:Quentin Griffin

:cough:

he's a coach, not a ####ing god

 

[P Boy]

I think Denver is making a mistake heading into the season with this RB corps.  Especially for a team that's so close.

It's so much fun to hear from FF owners who know more about RB performance in the NFL than Shanahan does.

:cough:Quentin Griffin

:cough:

he's a coach, not a ####ing god

Quentin Griffin was not his starter that season. Mike Anderson was. And while he may not be a "####ing god", he knows one hell of a lot more about what it takes to make the running game function at the NFL level than any of us here, bar none. And if anyone doesn't think he's a "####ing god", it would be me - I haven't spared him any due criticism over the year - but I recognize the best in the business at a certain thing when I see it and I consider his judgment of RBs to be superior to mine, yours, and anyone else's on this board.

 

[joffer]

I think Denver is making a mistake heading into the season with this RB corps.  Especially for a team that's so close.

It's so much fun to hear from FF owners who know more about RB performance in the NFL than Shanahan does.

:cough:Quentin Griffin

:cough:

he's a coach, not a ####ing god

Qunetin Griffin was not his starter that season. Mike Anderson was. And while he may not be a "####ing god", he knows one hell of a lot more about what it takes to make the running game function at the NFL level than any of us here, bar none.

don't disagree, but he's capable of mistakes. and i haven't found one link telling me that Mike Anderson went into that season as the starter. IIRC, Quentin Griffin started the first preseason game.edit: and Shanahan still chose Griffin to play over Droughns, who obviously was the better back.

 

[P Boy]

don't disagree, but he's capable of mistakes. and i haven't found one link telling me that Mike Anderson went into that season as the starter. IIRC, Quentin Griffin started the first preseason game.edit: and Shanahan still chose Griffin to play over Droughns, who obviously was the better back.

That he even considered Droughns considering his prior history with DET says miles about what Shanahan knows that the rest of us don't.And links were provided about Anderson starting that year before he got hurt a while back. Not worth taking the time to find them again - especially to try to prove that Shanahan is the best in the business at running the football & that he's picked Dayne as his starter, which ought to give Dayne immediate credibility in rational people's eyes, but some just can't seem to come to grips with it. Maybe SSOG can provide them for you if he checks in.

 

[Big Score]

don't disagree, but he's capable of mistakes.  and i haven't found one link telling me that Mike Anderson went into that season as the starter.  IIRC, Quentin Griffin started the first preseason game.

edit: and Shanahan still chose Griffin to play over Droughns, who obviously was the better back.

That he even considered Droughns considering his prior history with DET says miles about what Shanahan knows that the rest of us don't.And links were provided about Anderson starting that year before he got hurt a while back. Not worth taking the time to find them again - especially to try to prove that Shanahan is the best in the business at running the football & that he's picked Dayne as his starter, which ought to give Dayne immediate credibility in rational people's eyes, but some just can't seem to come to grips with it. Maybe SSOG can provide them for you if he checks in.

Uh-Oh...hold the phone!

Shanahan was stumped when reminded he had traded away the team's leading runners of the past three seasons.

Mike Anderson, the 2005 leader with 1,014 yards was sent away to Baltimore during the offseason. Clinton Portis (2003) was dealt to Washington.

"Who did we trade away before last season," Shanahan asked?

It was Reuben Droughns, who ran for 1,240 yards in 2004. He was sent to Cleveland.

"We've got a lot of confidence with our guys," Shanahan said. "We feel like we have a number of players like Cecil Sapp that could do a great job playing at the tailback position for us."

When told third-year running back Tatum Bell wanted more carries this coming season, Shanahan said: "I'd sure like to give him the ball more, considering how productive he was. He's been very good early in games and not as consistent at the end of the games and we're hoping he can get over that hump."

Shanny saying Cecil Sapp could do a great job for them at RB. Why is Shanny bothering to bring up Cecil Sapp, if Dayne is his guy?Shanny saying he's hoping Bell gets over the 10 carry per game hump. Why does Shanny care if Bell gets over the 10 carry per game hump? He's only going to feed him the ball around 10 times a game, right?

Remember everyone...Shanny never gives disinformation about his RB position.

 

[P Boy]

Shanny saying Cecil Sapp could do a great job for them at RB. Why is Shanny bothering to bring up Cecil Sapp, if Dayne is his guy?Shanny saying he's hoping Bell gets over the 10 carry per game hump. Why does Shanny care if Bell gets over the 10 carry per game hump? He's only going to feed him the ball around 10 times a game, right?Remember everyone...Shanny never gives disinformation about his RB position.

Go ahead, draft Sapp. I double dog dare you. Seriously. Make a case for Sapp if you can.As far as Shanahan & the Bell comments - that was a natural response to Bell's public whining about not being the #1 RB. He's essentially saying to Bell to prove that he can be effective beyond 10 carries a game. You think Shanahan pulled that number out of the air? Check Bell's production after 10 carries in a game. His numbers fall over a cliff. I'm sure Shanahan would love to let Bell carry the ball 20 times a game, if he were capable of doing so. Bell's production so far says he isn't. That's a "right back atcha' " kind of comment.

 

[joffer]

Go ahead, draft Droughns. I double dog dare you. Seriously. Make a case for Droughns if you can.

2004 flashback

 

[SSOG]

How can this not erupt into a classic pissing contest? I find it hard to believe there's no reply yet, especially given that the DEN RB breakdown spills into unrelated threads.

Everything coming from the Broncos decision makers have said is that Bell is a situational RB. The DEN beat writers have confirmed exactly that. Bell has an injury history that is significant for a 2nd year RB, and his production really falls off the table after 10 carries. Everything supports what the DEN coaching staff & management is saying - he'll be limited in his touches despite his homerun ability. Dayne is number 1 on the depth chart, and despite Bell's going public & complaining nothing is changing.

Make mine:

Bell

187 carries 992 yds 9 TDs rushing

21 receptions 129 yds 0 TDs receiving

I feel like you're a little bit too high on the yards rushing and the TDs, but otherwise spot on.Make mine a 150/800/6 rushing and 20/140 receiving.

don't disagree, but he's capable of mistakes. and i haven't found one link telling me that Mike Anderson went into that season as the starter. IIRC, Quentin Griffin started the first preseason game.

edit: and Shanahan still chose Griffin to play over Droughns, who obviously was the better back.

He chose Griffin over Droughns because Droughns was a fullback. RBs get a shot over fullbacks. When Griffin struggled, he went to see what Droughns had, and realized he had a keeper on his hands.Also, while the general opinion was that Griffin was heading into the 2004 season as a starter, reality was that Anderson had won the job with his huge game against Seattle in the preseason (forget the exact numbers, but I know he went over 100 yards on them in limited carries). I had links to articles from both the Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News (the two major media outlets covering the Broncos) affirming this last season, but both articles are down, as is the thread where I posted them. I suppose you'll just have to take my word for it.

don't disagree, but he's capable of mistakes. and i haven't found one link telling me that Mike Anderson went into that season as the starter. IIRC, Quentin Griffin started the first preseason game.

edit: and Shanahan still chose Griffin to play over Droughns, who obviously was the better back.

That he even considered Droughns considering his prior history with DET says miles about what Shanahan knows that the rest of us don't.And links were provided about Anderson starting that year before he got hurt a while back. Not worth taking the time to find them again - especially to try to prove that Shanahan is the best in the business at running the football & that he's picked Dayne as his starter, which ought to give Dayne immediate credibility in rational people's eyes, but some just can't seem to come to grips with it. Maybe SSOG can provide them for you if he checks in.

Uh-Oh...hold the phone!

Shanahan was stumped when reminded he had traded away the team's leading runners of the past three seasons.

Mike Anderson, the 2005 leader with 1,014 yards was sent away to Baltimore during the offseason. Clinton Portis (2003) was dealt to Washington.

"Who did we trade away before last season," Shanahan asked?

It was Reuben Droughns, who ran for 1,240 yards in 2004. He was sent to Cleveland.

"We've got a lot of confidence with our guys," Shanahan said. "We feel like we have a number of players like Cecil Sapp that could do a great job playing at the tailback position for us."

When told third-year running back Tatum Bell wanted more carries this coming season, Shanahan said: "I'd sure like to give him the ball more, considering how productive he was. He's been very good early in games and not as consistent at the end of the games and we're hoping he can get over that hump."

Shanny saying Cecil Sapp could do a great job for them at RB. Why is Shanny bothering to bring up Cecil Sapp, if Dayne is his guy?Shanny saying he's hoping Bell gets over the 10 carry per game hump. Why does Shanny care if Bell gets over the 10 carry per game hump? He's only going to feed him the ball around 10 times a game, right?

Remember everyone...Shanny never gives disinformation about his RB position.

There's no disinformation there. He's confident that he has a NUMBER OF PLAYERS who *COULD* do a great job playing tailback for them. That's always true. He's been comfortable with Portis, Anderson, Dayne, Gary, Davis, Griffin, Droughns, Bell, etc. etc. etc.Also, how is it disinformation that Shanahan says he's hoping that Bell gets better? What is he supposed to say, "Personally, I don't know why Bell bothers competing, since he has no shot in hell at winning the job. Actually, I hope he gets worse."?

Yes, Shanahan has a lot of guys that he's confident COULD succeed in the system. Yes, Mike Shanahan would like to see all of his RBs step up and take their games to a new level. Yes, if Mike Bell or Cecil Sapp or Kyle Johnson started playing lights-out, they'd win the job. How is this news? Is there any coach in the league who wouldn't give the job to whoever was performing better? Is there any coach in the league who doesn't want his players to play better?

Shanahan and Sundquist say that Dayne is the guy and Bell will be limited. That could change if Bell or Sapp or Mike Bell or someone steps up their game, but they've had a lot of time to evaluate these players, and this is where they stand at the moment. Personally, I'd rather bet on how things are than how they might one day be.

Shanahan likes Cecil Sapp. He likes the effort he puts forward. There are a lot of other RBs like that that Shanahan has liked and praised before. Some of them have even made it off the practice squad and onto the 53-man roster, although they usually are game-day inactives.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Shanahan knew so much about running backs that he drafted Maurice Clarett.

 

[Demons]

Tatum Bell is a great situational back. If you try to make him something he is not, such as a full-time starter, you will lose his production to injury sooner rather than later. Look no further than Quentin Griffin to find an example of what happens to a Denver RB that is made to do things his body can't handle. Some guys Bell's size can handle the wear and tear, Bell isn't one.

The up the middle chain mover is likely Dayne, as shocking as that may be.

Tatum Bell should do the following:

150 carries/ 825 yards/ 8 TD's

22 receptions/ 244 yards/ 1 TD

 

[P Boy]

Shanahan knew so much about running backs that he drafted Maurice Clarett.

Yeah, that one is hard to explain off, isn't it?Well, Clarett was never named the starter or even a member of the roster & was gone almost quicker than you can say "Gray Goose", so that really doesn't apply to RBs that Shanahan has named as a starter before the season starts.

 

[Big Score]

Go ahead, draft Sapp. I double dog dare you. Seriously. Make a case for Sapp if you can.

I think you must have me confused with Shanny, Pony Boy. I haven't said a darn thing about Cecil Sapp, Shanny did. You should direct your questions & double dog dares to Shanny, not me.

 

[Big Score]

Also, how is it disinformation that Shanahan says he's hoping that Bell gets better? What is he supposed to say, "Personally, I don't know why Bell bothers competing, since he has no shot in hell at winning the job. Actually, I hope he gets worse."?

Not quite what Shanny said SSOG. He specifically hopes Bell gets over the hump of carrying the ball late in games.

If Shanny has already determined that Dayne will carry X number of times & Bell will get X number of carries, why is he hoping Bell gets over the late game carry hump?

You can go ahead and write that off as unimportant if you like and Shanny just saying he hopes Bell improves, but not me.

 

[P Boy]

Go ahead, draft Sapp.  I double dog dare you.  Seriously.  Make a case for Sapp if you can.

I think you must have me confused with Shanny, Pony Boy. I haven't said a darn thing about Cecil Sapp, Shanny did. You should direct your questions & double dog dares to Shanny, not me.

No, but you're perfectly willing to use an innocuous remark with little impact as a basis for refuting other directly relevent information. That makes you accountable for bringing forth the Sapp remark as some kind of meaningful evidence in the Bronco RB debate, version 2006.

 

[Sinrman]

Bell hasn't really been giving the chance to try it on his own. He always had Anderson around. With Anderson out of the picture, it baffles me why Shannahan thinks Ron Dayne of all people can hack it and split time with Bell. Now I agree that Bell needs a lot of work on the other intangibles, like blocking and such, and perhaps that's Shanny's reasoning, but give him a shot at least...

 

[zamboni]

Bell hasn't really been giving the chance to try it on his own. He always had Anderson around.

He didn't have Anderson around in 2004, when the job was his for the taking. However, he got hurt and opened the door for Droughns.While he impressively played through his separated shoulder during late 2004, it seems the durability issue still looms in Shanny's eyes.

 

[joffer]

Go ahead, draft Sapp.  I double dog dare you.  Seriously.  Make a case for Sapp if you can.

I think you must have me confused with Shanny, Pony Boy. I haven't said a darn thing about Cecil Sapp, Shanny did. You should direct your questions & double dog dares to Shanny, not me.

No, but you're perfectly willing to use an innocuous remark with little impact as a basis for refuting other directly relevent information. That makes you accountable for bringing forth the Sapp remark as some kind of meaningful evidence in the Bronco RB debate, version 2006.

ALL WE HAVE ARE INNOCUOUS REMARKS, but you've somehow spun those into an argument that Dayne will be a successful primary ball carrier for Denver this year. No one knows how this is going to end up. Dayne could be a stud, Bell could be a stud, Sapp could be a stud, they could all suck. All I want is a concession that it's POSSIBLE that Shanahan is wrong and Ron Dayne will be a tremendous flop this year.

 

[P Boy]

ALL WE HAVE ARE INNOCUOUS REMARKS, but you've somehow spun those into an argument that Dayne will be a successful primary ball carrier for Denver this year. No one knows how this is going to end up. Dayne could be a stud, Bell could be a stud, Sapp could be a stud, they could all suck. All I want is a concession that it's POSSIBLE that Shanahan is wrong and Ron Dayne will be a tremendous flop this year.

Okay. Anything is possible & Dayne could be a tremendous flop this year. Right now the evidence doesn't support that, but it certainly is possible. I guess I put a lot more faith in Shanahan & Sunquist both stating that Dayne is the #1 RB in DEN and that Bell will be limited - and that the situation plays out in minicamps - than others put in an off-the-cuff remark that Sapp could succeed as the featured RB in DEN.

 

[Big Score]

Go ahead, draft Sapp.  I double dog dare you.  Seriously.  Make a case for Sapp if you can.

I think you must have me confused with Shanny, Pony Boy. I haven't said a darn thing about Cecil Sapp, Shanny did. You should direct your questions & double dog dares to Shanny, not me.

No, but you're perfectly willing to use an innocuous remark with little impact as a basis for refuting other directly relevent information. That makes you accountable for bringing forth the Sapp remark as some kind of meaningful evidence in the Bronco RB debate, version 2006.

I refuted nothing...I said hold the phone and showed a Shanny interview with the press where he discusses Sapp & Bell. Nothing more nothing less. If that makes me somehow accountable for what Shanny said to a reporter, then guilty as charged.

To be honest, it looks like you're deciding which reports that have Shanny talking about the RB's are worthwhile and which ones aren't. I'd think any interview with Shanny talking about the RB situation was worthwhile, but I guess not.

 

[moleculo]

I see no reason why Bell will have significant reason why Bell will have more or less production than he did in 2005. It is clear that he is destined to be part of a RBBC which includes Dayne and Sapp. It is even possible that the other half of RBBC is not currently on the Denver roster.

One thing I have noticed about Bell which could be indicative of his role on the team is 3rd down production. in 2005, he had 30 rushes for 14 first downs and 3 TD's, 8 receiving targets for only three receptions and a single first down. not quite 44% conversion ratio. In 2004, Bell had a conversion rate of 37%. Anderson, on the other hand, had a 2005 conversion ratio of 69%, Droughns in 2004 was 60%, Portis in 2003 was only 48%, but Portis in 2002 was 56%. I distinctly remember against the Giants last year - Bell had three separate receiving targets on 3rd down - 1 he caught and was just short of the first down, and two dropped passes in the open field.

IMO, this is one reason why Shannahan is not willing to give Bell the ball as a full time starter.

I believe Shannahan intends to limit Bell to the same number of carries in the same situations as last year. That being said, I see Bell with 182 attempts for 930 yards, 8 TD's, 20 receptions for 190 yards.

 

[Finatic]

160 carries/825 yds 7TDs

25 recpts/210 yds 1TD

 

[jurb26]

Ahhh thew Den backfield before Preseason. Why even bother?

 

[thecardiackid]

How can this not erupt into a classic pissing contest? I find it hard to believe there's no reply yet, especially given that the DEN RB breakdown spills into unrelated threads.

Careful what you wish for Pony... you might just get it. It looks like the consensus here is around 175 / 900 / 8ish TDs. Not bad for a #2 NFL RB presumably stuck in a RBBC. The problem FF wise of course would be struggling to start him correctly based upon his pending situation. I can easily see a few huge games, combined w/ a few where you wonder if he dressed for the game or pulled a hammy during warmups.

IF Tater can average anywhere over 5 ypc consistently (which is around what the posts here are predicting), he'll be tough to keep off the field. Even if his totals are skewed by 2/3 LONG ones - b/c in most cases when given some open field to work with, he can take it the distance.

Random thoughts:

I'm not sure TB will get the realistic chance (4-5 games w/ around 20 carries) starting the season to work himself into the RB Shanny wants - w/ Dayne & Co. waiting for their turn.

When MA finally won the full time job, he had already proven his production playing for the injured TD before the injury - gaining Shanny's confidence. Bell has yet to do that - aside from flashes here and there.

If Bell could ever figure out and utilize how TD converted most 3rd and 2's and applied it to his game, he'd win the job and probably finish in the top 5 rbs (barring injury). He's got the game breaking element - just not the "every down" part yet.

Shannahan has proven that he'll ride a guy into the ground IF he's getting the production and consistency he likes. Maybe this is his way of trying to motivate Bell to see if he can be that guy.

Either way, I think I'm spending my valuable 4-6 rd. draft picks elsewhere. This is the type of risk/reward situation that can win FF championships IF you guess right and all the stars align themselves. But, also lose just as many (if not due to who you passed on to take either Dayne or TB, then banging your head on the desk every Sunday morning trying to decide whether or not to put either in the lineup and praying for one of the "good games")

Drafting both to cover your #### "might" be a plausable theory, but since the debate will undoubtedly continue into Sept. their ADPs will likely make that impossible unless you've got 2 close picks in rounds 4-5.

Dayne's doing & *not* saying the right things now. He showed a little at the end of last year in some mop up duty and has proven that he AT LEAST deserves a shot to see what he can do. IIRC Shanny's system turned a former 6th round draft pick (w/ a major college injury) AND a late blooming former Marine into star NFL rbs - so it's not a huge gamble, even considering his lack of production in NY, that Shanny could do the same w/ a former Heisman winner.

Some FBGs will likely guess right and while others will be sporting other's sigs after losing bets. Unless either drops late (7+ = doubtful) I'll be

 

[JAA]

Tatum could be a 1500/17 guy or a 900/8 guy. I like him somewhere in the middle for a safer bet. I will say, that while I have made a projection here for posterity, I do think he will be close to the 1500/17 guy than 900/8.

1200/11

 

[SSOG]

Also, how is it disinformation that Shanahan says he's hoping that Bell gets better? What is he supposed to say, "Personally, I don't know why Bell bothers competing, since he has no shot in hell at winning the job. Actually, I hope he gets worse."?

Not quite what Shanny said SSOG. He specifically hopes Bell gets over the hump of carrying the ball late in games.

If Shanny has already determined that Dayne will carry X number of times & Bell will get X number of carries, why is he hoping Bell gets over the late game carry hump?

You can go ahead and write that off as unimportant if you like and Shanny just saying he hopes Bell improves, but not me.

I agree that Mike Shanahan wants Tatum Bell to be just as effective on his last 10 carries as he is on his first 10. I agree that should that happen, Tatum Bell will become the featured RB in Denver. With that said... Shanny's been hoping it for years now, and it hasn't happened yet. That's not to say it won't ever happen, that's just to say that it hasn't happened yet.

Bell hasn't really been giving the chance to try it on his own. He always had Anderson around. With Anderson out of the picture, it baffles me why Shannahan thinks Ron Dayne of all people can hack it and split time with Bell. Now I agree that Bell needs a lot of work on the other intangibles, like blocking and such, and perhaps that's Shanny's reasoning, but give him a shot at least...

Bell had his shot. It was the 2005 training camps and preseason. Anderson obliterated him in those camps, so Anderson was the starter. Anderson never showed any reason why he should lose the job, so Anderson remained the starter.Meanwhile, apparently Ron Dayne has shown enough more than Bell during practices that he's now the starter.

It's not like the coaching staff only evaluates these guys based on their game-day carries. The coaching staff sees these players probably close to 200 days a year. They're in a much better decision to judge who is where and ready for what than the casual fan, who sees these players maybe 16 days a year.

Ahhh thew Den backfield before Preseason. Why even bother?

Mike Anderson cost a 16th rounder last offseason and a 6th rounder after last preseason. That's why you bother- because, as a shark, you're looking for as much value as you can get, wherever you can get it.

 

[Byron_nyc]

Tatum Bell was the most overhyped RB in FF last year. Despite every opportunity to do otherwise last year, Denver used Bell as a situational back, exploiting his capacity to break long runs. He is a great 3rd down back -- maybe the best in the league. Ron Dayne, however, like Mike Anderson before him, is going to get the majority of touches on 1st, 2nd, and Gl downs. Bell is a 2nd year pro, 3rd down back with great potential if the starter underperforms or gets hurt.

150 / 700 / 4

 

[jurb26]

Ahhh thew Den backfield before Preseason. Why even bother?

Mike Anderson cost a 16th rounder last offseason and a 6th rounder after last preseason. That's why you bother- because, as a shark, you're looking for as much value as you can get, wherever you can get it.

Haven't look at ADPs yet huh. Bell is in the 4th, Dayne in the 7th as of now. The "value" is not there this year as it was last year no matter how you slice it.

 

[H.K.]

I agree that if Bell were going to be the primary RB, he would have secured the spot by now. As of today I anticipate him to share the load with another RB, most likely Dayne.

I used 12 carries a game as the basis for workload, with him getting 17 carries one week, but only 8 the next. However, I do predict a rise in his recepts as a way to get him more touches and give him the opportunity to operate in space, where he can make things happen.

TD's are tough to predict, but I do expect a handful of GL chances and a few more scores he can get from from outside the 10 YL.

192 carries

922 yards

4.8 YPC

6 TD's

23 recepts

165 yards

1 TD

 

[Big Score]

Also, how is it disinformation that Shanahan says he's hoping that Bell gets better? What is he supposed to say, "Personally, I don't know why Bell bothers competing, since he has no shot in hell at winning the job. Actually, I hope he gets worse."?

Not quite what Shanny said SSOG. He specifically hopes Bell gets over the hump of carrying the ball late in games.

If Shanny has already determined that Dayne will carry X number of times & Bell will get X number of carries, why is he hoping Bell gets over the late game carry hump?

You can go ahead and write that off as unimportant if you like and Shanny just saying he hopes Bell improves, but not me.

I agree that Mike Shanahan wants Tatum Bell to be just as effective on his last 10 carries as he is on his first 10. I agree that should that happen, Tatum Bell will become the featured RB in Denver. With that said... Shanny's been hoping it for years now, and it hasn't happened yet. That's not to say it won't ever happen, that's just to say that it hasn't happened yet.

Bell's rookie year was pretty much wiped out by injury. He did see a little late season action, when Droughns got dinged a bit. In relief of Droughns, Bell did have a 17 carry game vs Miami, where he had a ypc of 7.2 yards and a 16 carry game vs Indy, where he had a ypc of 5.7 yards.Last year was the first extended playing time for Bell.

So when you say....Shanny's been hoping it for years now

...if you really meant to say...

...Shanny's been hoping it for one(1) year now...I gotcha.

 

[SSOG]

Haven't look at ADPs yet huh. Bell is in the 4th, Dayne in the 7th as of now. The "value" is not there this year as it was last year no matter how you slice it.

If Ron Dayne keeps getting first-team reps during TCs and preseason, his ADP will rise, regardless of what it is at the moment. A lot of people learned their lesson last year with Anderson and will jump on Dayne once it becomes 100% clear that he's "the guy".Just because there isn't AS MUCH value as there was this time last year doesn't mean there isn't more value than there will be in another 2 months.

Once again, Denver finished with the #10 and #22 ranked backs last season. They're being drafted at #25 and #36 right now. If you don't think that those numbers are going to climb, you're blind.

Bell's rookie year was pretty much wiped out by injury. He did see a little late season action, when Droughns got dinged a bit. In relief of Droughns, Bell did have a 17 carry game vs Miami, where he had a ypc of 7.2 yards and a 16 carry game vs Indy, where he had a ypc of 5.7 yards.

Last year was the first extended playing time for Bell.

So when you say....Shanny's been hoping it for years now

...if you really meant to say...

...Shanny's been hoping it for one(1) year now...I gotcha.

Again, you're making the classic mistake of thinking that coaches only look at what players do during game days. Mike Shanahan has seen Tatum Bell work and perform for probably about 400 days now. He's not drawing his conclusions on the 29 games Tatum Bell was active for... he's drawing his conclusions from every voluntary workout, training camp, preseason game, regular season game, and weekly practice Tatum Bell has ever participated in.

 

[jurb26]

Haven't look at ADPs yet huh. Bell is in the 4th, Dayne in the 7th as of now. The "value" is not there this year as it was last year no matter how you slice it.

If Ron Dayne keeps getting first-team reps during TCs and preseason, his ADP will rise, regardless of what it is at the moment. A lot of people learned their lesson last year with Anderson and will jump on Dayne once it becomes 100% clear that he's "the guy".Just because there isn't AS MUCH value as there was this time last year doesn't mean there isn't more value than there will be in another 2 months.

Once again, Denver finished with the #10 and #22 ranked backs last season. They're being drafted at #25 and #36 right now. If you don't think that those numbers are going to climb, you're blind.

Of course they will clime, but I would imgain for only one of the RBs and not both. THe others will likely fall, like Bell's did last year. This wont happen until preseason however. With these RBs being drafted so close together and fairly early, I would think a person would want to aquire both. At those ADPs it will not be easy like it was last year.

 

[zamboni]

Bell's rookie year was pretty much wiped out by injury. He did see a little late season action, when Droughns got dinged a bit. In relief of Droughns, Bell did have a 17 carry game vs Miami, where he had a ypc of 7.2 yards and a 16 carry game vs Indy, where he had a ypc of 5.7 yards.

Last year was the first extended playing time for Bell.

So when you say....Shanny's been hoping it for years now

...if you really meant to say...

...Shanny's been hoping it for one(1) year now...I gotcha.

I don't think one can summarily dismiss the fact that he missed that much time. We don't know the whole story, but that seems to be the origin of Shanahan's concern about his durability.

 

[Confucius]

Hey Bronco Billy, when do you take over as RB's coach of Denver?

 

[moleculo]

Tatum Bell was the most overhyped RB in FF last year. Despite every opportunity to do otherwise last year, Denver used Bell as a situational back, exploiting his capacity to break long runs. He is a great 3rd down back -- maybe the best in the league. Ron Dayne, however, like Mike Anderson before him, is going to get the majority of touches on 1st, 2nd, and Gl downs. Bell is a 2nd year pro, 3rd down back with great potential if the starter underperforms or gets hurt.

150 / 700 / 4

maybe you missed my earlier post. Since 2002, the only back who converted on 3rd down fewer than Bell was Q Griffin (assuming min of 10 3rd down attempts in a season). The list of backs on 3rd down in that time span include Portis, Gary, Anderson, Qriffin, and Droughns.Bell does not have the power to gain the short yardage, and he does not have the hands to be a reliable receiving threat out of the backfield. He does have the speed to convert a clever draw, or some other handoff when the D is expecting something completely different, but that's about it.

 

[jurb26]

Tatum Bell was the most overhyped RB in FF last year. Despite every opportunity to do otherwise last year, Denver used Bell as a situational back, exploiting his capacity to break long runs. He is a great 3rd down back -- maybe the best in the league. Ron Dayne, however, like Mike Anderson before him, is going to get the majority of touches on 1st, 2nd, and Gl downs. Bell is a 2nd year pro, 3rd down back with great potential if the starter underperforms or gets hurt.

150 / 700 / 4

maybe you missed my earlier post. Since 2002, the only back who converted on 3rd down fewer than Bell was Q Griffin (assuming min of 10 3rd down attempts in a season). The list of backs on 3rd down in that time span include Portis, Gary, Anderson, Qriffin, and Droughns.Bell does not have the power to gain the short yardage, and he does not have the hands to be a reliable receiving threat out of the backfield. He does have the speed to convert a clever draw, or some other handoff when the D is expecting something completely different, but that's about it.

Word is that Bell has worked on his strength and size this offseason. Is that true?

 

[zamboni]

Tatum Bell was the most overhyped RB in FF last year.  Despite every opportunity to do otherwise last year, Denver used Bell as a situational back, exploiting his capacity to break long runs.  He is a great 3rd down back -- maybe the best in the league. Ron Dayne, however, like Mike Anderson before him, is going to get the majority of touches on 1st, 2nd, and Gl downs.  Bell is a 2nd year pro, 3rd down back with great potential if the starter underperforms or gets hurt. 

150 / 700 / 4

maybe you missed my earlier post. Since 2002, the only back who converted on 3rd down fewer than Bell was Q Griffin (assuming min of 10 3rd down attempts in a season). The list of backs on 3rd down in that time span include Portis, Gary, Anderson, Qriffin, and Droughns.Bell does not have the power to gain the short yardage, and he does not have the hands to be a reliable receiving threat out of the backfield. He does have the speed to convert a clever draw, or some other handoff when the D is expecting something completely different, but that's about it.

Exactly what I was thinking. Bell may be one of the best situational backs in the league, but a prototypical 3rd down back he's not.

 

[Confucius]

Tatum Bell

340 carries

2088 rushing yards

24 TD's

21 receptions

180 receiving yards

 

[BL Titans]

5' 11" and NFL.com lists him as 213 pounds - he's not a little guy and if he's gained some he'll push 220 pounds

He's what he is - explosive, fast, and high yards per carry average.

Dayne is what he is too - or else NY would have never traded him.

I'm not exactly just looking the first 8 games this year but the last 8 games, and in a Dynasty in 1-2 years

I'll draf the more talented back in Bell over Dayne anyday and play those cards

 

[P Boy]

Hey Bronco Billy, when do you take over as RB's coach of Denver?

Now what could possibly prompt a comment this inane?

 

[P Boy]

Again, you're making the classic mistake of thinking that coaches only look at what players do during game days. Mike Shanahan has seen Tatum Bell work and perform for probably about 400 days now. He's not drawing his conclusions on the 29 games Tatum Bell was active for... he's drawing his conclusions from every voluntary workout, training camp, preseason game, regular season game, and weekly practice Tatum Bell has ever participated in.

It never fails to amaze me that some people can't grasp this very basic concept, or the concept that a coach's ability to retain his job depends in a significant part upon the personnel decisions that he makes.

 

[jurb26]

Again, you're making the classic mistake of thinking that coaches only look at what players do during game days. Mike Shanahan has seen Tatum Bell work and perform for probably about 400 days now. He's not drawing his conclusions on the 29 games Tatum Bell was active for... he's drawing his conclusions from every voluntary workout, training camp, preseason game, regular season game, and weekly practice Tatum Bell has ever participated in.

It never fails to amaze me that some people can't grasp this very basic concept, or the concept that a coach's ability to retain his job depends in a significant part upon the personnel decisions that he makes.

Let me ask you guys a question. Have either of you ever coached football?

 

[Big Score]

Bell's rookie year was pretty much wiped out by injury. He did see a little late season action, when Droughns got dinged a bit. In relief of Droughns, Bell did have a 17 carry game vs Miami, where he had a ypc of 7.2 yards and a 16 carry game vs Indy, where he had a ypc of 5.7 yards.

Last year was the first extended playing time for Bell.

So when you say....Shanny's been hoping it for years now

...if you really meant to say...

...Shanny's been hoping it for one(1) year now...I gotcha.

Again, you're making the classic mistake of thinking that coaches only look at what players do during game days. Mike Shanahan has seen Tatum Bell work and perform for probably about 400 days now. He's not drawing his conclusions on the 29 games Tatum Bell was active for... he's drawing his conclusions from every voluntary workout, training camp, preseason game, regular season game, and weekly practice Tatum Bell has ever participated in.

No, I was not making the classic mistake of thinking that coaches only look at what players do during game days. OTA's are for mentally getting the offensive / defensive plays down & working on technique. But with no contact, a Coach cannot form any type of opinion on how a player will perform with X number of carries.

Also when a player is held out of practice due to injury, the Coach has no body of work to draw a conclusion from, does he?

The fact is, in Bell's rookie campaign, he fractured his middle finger his first day of TC and missed a lot of practices / pre-season games, because of that. Then in season, he dinged a rib & hammy at different times and missed more practices.

As I said, if you meant to say Shanny's been hoping for Bell to get over the late game carry hump for one(1) year, I'm with you.

But if you insist on saying that Sahnny's been hoping for Bell to get over the late game carry hump for years, I cannot agree.

I'm with you on 90% of the stuff you write about the Broncos SSOG, but the simple mathematical fact is, Shanny has not been able to see Bell in the NFL for years. There's no getting around that.

 

[P Boy]

Again, you're making the classic mistake of thinking that coaches only look at what players do during game days. Mike Shanahan has seen Tatum Bell work and perform for probably about 400 days now. He's not drawing his conclusions on the 29 games Tatum Bell was active for... he's drawing his conclusions from every voluntary workout, training camp, preseason game, regular season game, and weekly practice Tatum Bell has ever participated in.

It never fails to amaze me that some people can't grasp this very basic concept, or the concept that a coach's ability to retain his job depends in a significant part upon the personnel decisions that he makes.

Let me ask you guys a question. Have either of you ever coached football?

Yes, I have. I played football, have a coaching minor with my first degree, and coached high school football for 12 years - 7 years at the varsity level - while simulaneously coaching & reffing Boys' Club football. I've attended the 49ers', USC, ASU, U of A, Wisconsin, and several community college coaching clinics. I've also participated in & taken groups of players to numerous week long camps.Do I get the job?

 

[jurb26]

Do I get the job?

Nope.