Player Spotlight: Terrell Owens (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Terrell Owens Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[DenverBroncos]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Terrell Owens Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

80 receptions, 1200 yards, 12 TD's

 

[Banger]

If he can stay healthy and avoid getting kicked off his team, he's about as a top "lock" as there is. Since 2000 he's finished 3rd, 47th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 12th, 4th, 32nd (was on pace for top 5) and 2nd. 85-1200-14

 

[Chadstroma]

He was had issues with his hand last year and there were tons of missed opportunities that normally he would have easily grabbed. Other than the possibility of a T.O. episode that get's him sidelined there is little risk to T.O. as a top WR. He has had only a couple of injuries over his career but has shown that if it is at all possible- he will play. If he stays healthy the balls will mostly go to him from Romo. I think a 85-1300-14 season is a good number to look forward to.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

With Bill not in Dallas, I wonder if this is the season Terrell blows up. It will depend on how things go....if Dallas is winning and he's scoring, then all will be fine. I think Dallas has a playoff type team and will be right in the thick of things with about 5 teams in the NFC.

He's currently the best wide receiver IMO inside the red zone which is why he'll score plenty of TD's again this year.

83 receptions 1210 yards receiving and 14 Td's

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

 

[Banger]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

only injury/implosion

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

only injury/implosion

pretty much - although under injury, I would include injury to Romo. I dont think TO can put up top 5 numbers with Brad Johnson throwing to him.

 

[Power Monster]

75 rec.

1100 yds

16 TDs

1 rushing TD

Always a risk always a circus but if he can stay healthy and catch half the passes that he dropped last year he will be an impact WR in FF 2007...

 

[Banger]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

only injury/implosion

pretty much - although under injury, I would include injury to Romo. I dont think TO can put up top 5 numbers with Brad Johnson throwing to him.

but that's really no different for any NFL wr.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

He is a reciever with notoriously bad hands who has suffered a hand injury from which he may never fully recover.He is on the wrong side of 30 and has had a leg injury, granted not one with tremendous lingering effects like real and permanent ligiment damage, but an injury none the less.He is not known as a student of the game and will be asked to pick up a new offense run by a relatively inexperienced Q.B. with an offensive line in flux.A young T.E. is in coming into his own and may become a more frequent red zone target.The reciever opposite him is declining in ability due to age though he remains a threat.I list the reasons only because there was a bit of an invite to do so. If asked I suppose I could come up with reasons to justify that he might have his best year yet including he has now had time to develope a rapport with a Q.B. who seems to favor him as a target and he may be given freer reign by the new coaching staff. T.O. is much like Patton as depicted in the movie, give him a positive headline and he is good for greater production, this coaching staff may get that.

 

[kensat30]

90/1250/14

15 games

Terrell Owens is ranked as the #1 WR on my board. Why? Because he scores a boatload of TDs. That's it, that's the only reason. Since his breakout year in SF in 2000 when he surpassed Jerry Rice as the #1 WR, and then in Philly, and now in Dallas, TO has averaged scoring a TD in every 1.14 games. In other words he has scored 84 TDs in 96 games as the #1 WR for his team. Pretty impressive in itself. Just for a comparison, Marvin Harrison has scored 101 TDs in 127 games in his best years with the Indy(1.26). Chad Johnson is not even close scoring 35 times in 64 games in his best years in Cincy(1.83). Even the great Randy Moss in his best years in Minnesota was not as much of a scoring threat as TO, he scored 90 times in 109 games (1.16). Now consider the number of times TO has switched teams and continued to put up numbers. And consider the injuries TO has played through and come back from. It's mind boggling when you compare what TO has done compared to other great fantasy WRs in their primes. No matter what you think of his personality, TO is just an amazing player that scores more TD than any other player in the game bar none.

For fantasy, Terrell Owens is the definition of the stud WR. The guy is near the top of the leaderboard year after year no matter what his situation. And he usually misses a couple games every year, making his per game numbers that much more impressive. Last year he broke his finger early in the year, missed most of training camp due to a hamstring, was surrounded by media hype, led the league in drops, had his QB switched mid year from a veteran to a first year starter, and yet he STILL managed to score more TDs than any other WR without even playing a full 16 games!

It's a travesty that most people have TO rated as their #4-#6 WR. Hype alone puts guys like Chad Johnson ahead of him.

 

[shadyridr]

I would NEVER draft TO and it has nothing to do with his stats. I just hate him so much I would never be able to root for him. That being said he was phenomenal with Romo last year and I dont expect anything different this year. I dont expect a huge yardage year because he is getting up there in age but he will have a bunch of TDs.

90 rec, 1200 yds, 12 tds

 

[rzrback77]

More of the same here. T Owens is tremendously talented athlete who seemed to be on the same page with a developing quarterback. He has finished 2nd, 12th, 4th, 32nd, and 2nd among WRs in the past five years. He has finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th among all wide receivers in years when he missed two complete games. I'll say that again, he has finished ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th among all wide receivers in years when he missed two complete games.

I think that TO will continue to be a hit in the red zone and he and Romo will enjoy 2007 a successful connection all this year.

T Owens 155 targets 95 receptions 1330 yards and 14 TDS. He finishes again in the top five among WRs.

 

[Chadstroma]

He is a reciever with notoriously bad hands who has suffered a hand injury from which he may never fully recover.

Do you have any information showing that his hand is still an issue? I have not seen anything.

He is on the wrong side of 30 and has had a leg injury, granted not one with tremendous lingering effects like real and permanent ligiment damage, but an injury none the less.

There does not seem to be any slowing in his step from last year. Why is this year expected to be the year that he lingers from a foot problem and age?

He is not known as a student of the game and will be asked to pick up a new offense run by a relatively inexperienced Q.B. with an offensive line in flux.

Granted- he is not a football genius but has he not learned 2 systems in about 3 years with little to show for not picking up the offense.

A young T.E. is in coming into his own and may become a more frequent red zone target.

Romo likes to throw to Witten- much more than Bledsoe did for sure- but that is more of a safety valve than it is Romo looking to throw Witten more targets.

The reciever opposite him is declining in ability due to age though he remains a threat.

No real argument here other than I think defense's will not be able to forget he is there and just focus on T.O.

 

[SSOG]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

He is a reciever with notoriously bad hands who has suffered a hand injury from which he may never fully recover.

That was true last year, too. Owens finished #2.

He is on the wrong side of 30 and has had a leg injury, granted not one with tremendous lingering effects like real and permanent ligiment damage, but an injury none the less.

That was true last year, too. Owens finished #2. Also, "the wrong side of 30" refers more to RBs than WRs. There is a long history of stud WRs continuing to produce well into their 30s.

He is not known as a student of the game and will be asked to pick up a new offense run by a relatively inexperienced Q.B. with an offensive line in flux.

Didn't seem to hurt him when he went from SF to Philly, or when he went from Philly to Dallas.

A young T.E. is in coming into his own and may become a more frequent red zone target.

Witten's been "coming into his own" for a while now. He had a huge breakout season the year before Owens came... but that didn't stop Owens from stealing from his numbers last year.

The reciever opposite him is declining in ability due to age though he remains a threat.

Glenn hasn't shown *ANY* indication of declining in ability. His catch% has remained sterling, his ypc has remained sterling, his yards per target has remained sterling. In fact, he's arguably been better the past two years than at any other point in his career. It's true that he's aging, but Owens has a long and storied history of beating double teams, so if Glenn falls off a cliff, that just means more targets for T.O.I really don't see much downside at all outside of injury or implosion.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I really don't see much downside at all outside of injury or implosion.

And even the injury downside is lessened by the way this guy seems to always beat the earliest estimates for when he can return from injuries. I feel confident that he's in the top percentile of physical fitness in the league.

 

[Banger]

I really don't see much downside at all outside of injury or implosion.

And even the injury downside is lessened by the way this guy seems to always beat the earliest estimates for when he can return from injuries. I feel confident that he's in the top percentile of physical fitness in the league.

I think the point you make is a good one about the ability to play through pain/injury. TO is a gamer and always wants to be on the field EVERY Sunday and it usually takes something extraordinary to keep him out.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

He is a reciever with notoriously bad hands who has suffered a hand injury from which he may never fully recover.

That was true last year, too. Owens finished #2.

He is on the wrong side of 30 and has had a leg injury, granted not one with tremendous lingering effects like real and permanent ligiment damage, but an injury none the less.

That was true last year, too. Owens finished #2. Also, "the wrong side of 30" refers more to RBs than WRs. There is a long history of stud WRs continuing to produce well into their 30s.

He is not known as a student of the game and will be asked to pick up a new offense run by a relatively inexperienced Q.B. with an offensive line in flux.

Didn't seem to hurt him when he went from SF to Philly, or when he went from Philly to Dallas.

A young T.E. is in coming into his own and may become a more frequent red zone target.

Witten's been "coming into his own" for a while now. He had a huge breakout season the year before Owens came... but that didn't stop Owens from stealing from his numbers last year.

The reciever opposite him is declining in ability due to age though he remains a threat.

Glenn hasn't shown *ANY* indication of declining in ability. His catch% has remained sterling, his ypc has remained sterling, his yards per target has remained sterling. In fact, he's arguably been better the past two years than at any other point in his career. It's true that he's aging, but Owens has a long and storied history of beating double teams, so if Glenn falls off a cliff, that just means more targets for T.O.I really don't see much downside at all outside of injury or implosion.

Good analysis by both you and Chadstroma. I just listed the reason one might knock him down the list as the invitation was there. I don't necessarily ascribe to any of those theories.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

He is a reciever with notoriously bad hands who has suffered a hand injury from which he may never fully recover.

That was true last year, too. Owens finished #2.

He is on the wrong side of 30 and has had a leg injury, granted not one with tremendous lingering effects like real and permanent ligiment damage, but an injury none the less.

That was true last year, too. Owens finished #2. Also, "the wrong side of 30" refers more to RBs than WRs. There is a long history of stud WRs continuing to produce well into their 30s.

He is not known as a student of the game and will be asked to pick up a new offense run by a relatively inexperienced Q.B. with an offensive line in flux.

Didn't seem to hurt him when he went from SF to Philly, or when he went from Philly to Dallas.

A young T.E. is in coming into his own and may become a more frequent red zone target.

Witten's been "coming into his own" for a while now. He had a huge breakout season the year before Owens came... but that didn't stop Owens from stealing from his numbers last year.

The reciever opposite him is declining in ability due to age though he remains a threat.

Glenn hasn't shown *ANY* indication of declining in ability. His catch% has remained sterling, his ypc has remained sterling, his yards per target has remained sterling. In fact, he's arguably been better the past two years than at any other point in his career. It's true that he's aging, but Owens has a long and storied history of beating double teams, so if Glenn falls off a cliff, that just means more targets for T.O.I really don't see much downside at all outside of injury or implosion.

Good analysis by both you and Chadstroma. I just listed the reason one might knock him down the list as the invitation was there. I don't necessarily ascribe to any of those theories.

Your contribution was just as valuable - the fact that the arguments you presented were ones you didnt necessarily believe, and ones that were rebutted with ease illustrated my point much better than my 5 cent thought...

 

[BLOX]

I think TO is almost a value play this year as many owners are hesitant to draft him because of them having had their seasons ruined because of the hole he put in their fantasy squad.

With a ADP (not sure if this is completely accurate) of going in the late 2nd I have to think that teams in the top 3 would be salivating to get him to match up with LT, LJ, SJax, etc.

I think he's going to finish as the #1 WR.

95 Rec, 1420 yards, 15 TD

 

[Two Deep]

Selfish, immature : goes 84-1200 yds, 13 tds, 20 drops, 6 on television tantrums, 3 major news incidents and one emotional break down including .

 

[David Yudkin]

I think TO is almost a value play this year as many owners are hesitant to draft him because of them having had their seasons ruined because of the hole he put in their fantasy squad.With a ADP (not sure if this is completely accurate) of going in the late 2nd I have to think that teams in the top 3 would be salivating to get him to match up with LT, LJ, SJax, etc.I think he's going to finish as the #1 WR.95 Rec, 1420 yards, 15 TD

Early ADP is 27th overall.I think this projection is a bit aggressive. In 11 years, he's hit:95 receptions twice1420 yards once15 TD once

 

[Jon_Moore]

Led the league in drops and finished as WR#2...

Led the league in drops and STILL caught 85 passes

His 2nd year in Philly, he was going OFF. I figure he and Mcnabb had gelled and were clicking on all cyllinders, and he was accustomed to the offense. In the same time span, he and Romo should be close to on that same plain. Now granted, Romo isn't Mcnabb, but he's no schmuck either. Also, in the 2nd half of the season, he was averaging 77 yards a game and his ypc was up to 15.2. Add all of that up, subtract Bill Parcells, and I think he is in for one heck of a year.

88 receptions

1320 yards

14 tds

 

[Blue-Kun]

Since 2000, save 05 where he was shut down early, he has never scored under 240pts in WCOFF Scoring.

He has finished in the Top 10 of WR scoring in 5 of those 7 seasons. He came in 11th in the other season where he played all 16 games.

Even if you only expect his baseline numbers, that would put him in the top ten 3 of the last 7 years and in the top 15 every year. He's one of those WR who's close to a mortal lock for top ten numbers @ WR.

The only real non-minor reason not to draft him is if your worried he'll blow up again and the team will try to shut him down or limit his throws.

86 Rec

1,210 yrds

13 TD

 

[Cerwin]

Selfish, immature : goes 84-1200 yds, 13 tds, 20 drops, 6 tantrums, 3 major news incidents and one emotional break down including :( .

My opponents will do the same stuff when TO dominates for me. I won't judge them either.Edit:

85 catches

1300 yards

14 TDs

and a (fantasy) championship (for me)

 

[BLOX]

I think TO is almost a value play this year as many owners are hesitant to draft him because of them having had their seasons ruined because of the hole he put in their fantasy squad.With a ADP (not sure if this is completely accurate) of going in the late 2nd I have to think that teams in the top 3 would be salivating to get him to match up with LT, LJ, SJax, etc.I think he's going to finish as the #1 WR.95 Rec, 1420 yards, 15 TD

Early ADP is 27th overall.I think this projection is a bit aggressive. In 11 years, he's hit:95 receptions twice1420 yards once15 TD once

Yeah, I looked at his stats, but I still feel that he's going to have a great year. It's just that his talent plus the situation he's in on a team that could very well be the NFC Champions makes for a solid WR in any format. I'm truly hoping for a top 5 pick so that I can match him up with one of the top tier backs. Even with a late pick I'd be willing to roll the dice and go with TO and Portis to get my draft off to a great start. But it's early.A question just occurred to me: Has any WR ever had his career year in their 12th season?

 

[David Yudkin]

A question just occurred to me: Has any WR ever had his career year in their 12th season?

Keenan McCardell (12th season)Charlie Joiner (13th season)Irving Fryar (13th season)

 

[toxicbees]

I think he's got two more years before time catches up with him and his stats start to tail off. His receptions and yardage will go down while his TDs go up.

76 receptions 1045 yards 16 TDs

 

[benbadman]

80 catches 1250 yards 12 TD (definitely over 10 TD)

I suppose an important question is: who would you draft ahead of TO?

Maybe guys like: Steve Smith, Harrison, Chad JOhnson, Torry Holt, Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne.

If those guys are off the board, and I want to solidify my WR1, I have a tough time passing on TO in favor of Boldin, Housmandzadeh, Colston, Roy Wiliams, or even Randy Moss. TO is definitely NOT a likeable guy, he's kind of the Mike Tyson of the NFL, but his production is hard to deny and the reason he still gets paid to play on Sundays.

 

[Jon_Moore]

80 catches 1250 yards 12 TD (definitely over 10 TD)I suppose an important question is: who would you draft ahead of TO?Maybe guys like: Steve Smith, Harrison, Chad JOhnson, Torry Holt, Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne.If those guys are off the board, and I want to solidify my WR1, I have a tough time passing on TO in favor of Boldin, Housmandzadeh, Colston, Roy Wiliams, or even Randy Moss. TO is definitely NOT a likeable guy, he's kind of the Mike Tyson of the NFL, but his production is hard to deny and the reason he still gets paid to play on Sundays.

I don't know what this not likeable stuff is. He scores touchdowns. I like him. Hines Ward doesn't score as many, so I don't like him as much.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Wow, when I opened this post, I was expecting the average opinion of him to be much lower, like 5th or 6th WR, behind guys like CJ, Steve Smith, Holt, and Harrison or Wayne.

After reading this post, I agree with most of you, and I'm not sure there is a WR that I would take ahead of him. The only one that MAYBE I would, is Steve Smith, and that is only because there is a significantly smaller chance that he totally self-destructs.

I'll go with:

88 catches

1290 yards

14 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

Wow, when I opened this post, I was expecting the average opinion of him to be much lower, like 5th or 6th WR, behind guys like CJ, Steve Smith, Holt, and Harrison or Wayne. After reading this post, I agree with most of you, and I'm not sure there is a WR that I would take ahead of him. The only one that MAYBE I would, is Steve Smith, and that is only because there is a significantly smaller chance that he totally self-destructs. I'll go with:88 catches1290 yards14 TDs

I hope you are right . . . I just drafted Smith and Owens as my first two receivers in one leauge I'm in.

 

[taco breath]

I would NEVER draft TO and it has nothing to do with his stats. I just hate him so much I would never be able to root for him. That being said he was phenomenal with Romo last year and I dont expect anything different this year. I dont expect a huge yardage year because he is getting up there in age but he will have a bunch of TDs.90 rec, 1200 yds, 12 tds

i bet you pick players from your favorite teams.

 

[Obie Wan]

Talent has never been the issue with TO.

The big concern should be his mental state in that he is now in the 2nd year of his contract. Last year he got $10 mil in cash. In 2008, he "only" gets $7 mil.

Is he going to freak because he is making less and is under appreciated?

Could be

He is not the most stable or logical of players.

If he goes mental, all bets are off and his talent goes out the window.

 

[Ilov80s]

I keep trying to come up with reasons that TO won't be top 5 this year, but I can't.

82 rec 1148 yards 12 TDs.

 

[Buckna]

The ultimate high-risk, high-reward player. If he plays the entire year you've got a top 3 WR scoring for you. Then again, since he became a stud WR in his 3rd season, he's only played a full season 3 out of 9 years. If you include his 1st two seasons, he's played the full year only 5 of 11 times. In addition to injury woes, he's a notorious headcase and often labeled as a cancer in the lockerroom when he's not happy or getting his way. Can a new, inexperienced headcoach keep him reigned in and happy? I don't know, it will likely depend on the Cowboys win total.

I only rank him behind guys like Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, and likely Marvin Harrison because I have a lot more certainty that they'll play out the full season as compared to TO. If those other guys are off the board when it comes time to pick a WR, TO is my call. I just might have to take my WR2 a little earlier since I don't have as much confidence in his health.

Don't expect an inordinate amount of passes caught or yards, but TD's will come in droves:

82 catches

1150 yards

14 TD's

 

[jurb26]

I'm not exactly sure why just yet, but something scares me about Romo. Because of that, I down tick TO just a bit.

80 reception, 1100 tds, 11 TDs