Player Spotlight: Tiki Barber (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tiki Barber, RB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Tiki Barber Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[smattermonnat]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tiki Barber, RB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Tiki Barber Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

I think the Giants Offense as a whole will be better than last year however I'd be very shocked to see Tiki mirror his '05 totals- others will benefit and Tiki will come back to earth, albeit still a solid performance.295 Rushes, 1180 yds, 6 TD's, 45 rec, 450 yds, 2 TD's

 

[Bankerguy]

Tiki is always one of the most widely debated and most crazily ranked player from cheatseet to cheatsheet.

The good.

Eli another year under the belt. no reason to think this won't be a potent offense.

The bad

One of the most brutal schedules I've seen for this year.

Two words: Brandon Jacobs. Ultimate goal line vulture. This will continue and hurt Tiki's TD totals again this year.

Conclusions

It's hard to discount the player or predict an injury. So, I always tend to stick closely to the ADP and general consensus. So for me....

Attempts- 300

Yards- 1450

TD's- 5

Catches- 58

Yards- 560

TD's- 3

 

[H.K.]

This is it. This is finally the year that Tiki gets the love he so richly deserves. Let's look at all the positives:

1) The Giants have nobody else to play at RB. Ward and Jacobs are grinders that sorely limit the offense when they are on the field. Barber will get a huge workload again this season.

2) Potent offense keeps defenses from keying on Tiki. Eli, Burress, Shockey, Toomer, a fine OL, all mean tons of room for Barber to operate.

3) Barber is indestructable. He has missed only 2 games in eight seasons and none in the past four years. His off-season training regimen has improved his strength and conditioning, and he is just now entering his prime.

4) He does it all, catches passes, runs inside, outside, short-yardage, goal line, etc. so he scores from anywhere on the field, at any time.

Projection

362 carries

1846 yards

5.1 YPC

12 TD

68 recepts

619

9.1 YPR

4 TD

FYI - 2,464 total yards in my projection will set the all-time NFL yards from scrimmage record. Congrats in advance to the new Champ!

 

[Wingnut]

4) He does it all, catches passes, runs inside, outside, short-yardage, goal line

So Jacobs, who had 7 TDs last year (from distances of 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1 yds), will NOT get any of those GL looks??? Id like to hear your reasoning for thinking this...Hes the definition of TD VULTURE, and I doubt his role will be decreased - if anything, I think he could get MORE looks and help keep Tiki fresh and away from GL contact.

 

[H.K.]

4) He does it all, catches passes, runs inside, outside, short-yardage, goal line

So Jacobs, who had 7 TDs last year (from distances of 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1 yds), will NOT get any of those GL looks??? Id like to hear your reasoning for thinking this...Hes the definition of TD VULTURE, and I doubt his role will be decreased - if anything, I think he could get MORE looks and help keep Tiki fresh and away from GL contact.

The last eight games of 2005 Jacobs totaled 12 carries for 20 yards and two TD's. He scored those two TD's on one yard runs, but failed to score on seven other carries inside the 3. A conversion percentage of only 22%.Barber had 205 carries for 1100 yards and four TD's in that span (he had two carries inside the five - one for a TD and one for a first down in that same span).

Jacobs will vulture a few, but not as many as last year.

 

[sholditch]

I'll put this plainly. Tiki is God. He is my main round 1 target in all of my redraft leagues. Period. Not only will he not slow down, I expect this year's stats to dwarf last year's

375 carries for 2,500 and 18 TDs rushing

89 receptions for 1,000 and 6 TDs receiving

anything less would be an insult to his talent

joking aside

320 for 1600 and 8 ru

50 for 450 and 3 rec

great numbers. Will stay in top five of RBs for sure. Only reason I even downgrade him in dynasty is because he said 08 will be his last year (final year of contract extension).

 

[Wingnut]

4) He does it all, catches passes, runs inside, outside, short-yardage, goal line

So Jacobs, who had 7 TDs last year (from distances of 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1 yds), will NOT get any of those GL looks??? Id like to hear your reasoning for thinking this...Hes the definition of TD VULTURE, and I doubt his role will be decreased - if anything, I think he could get MORE looks and help keep Tiki fresh and away from GL contact.

The last eight games of 2005 Jacobs totaled 12 carries for 20 yards and two TD's. He scored those two TD's on one yard runs, but failed to score on seven other carries inside the 3. A conversion percentage of only 22%.Barber had 205 carries for 1100 yards and four TD's in that span (he had two carries inside the five - one for a TD and one for a first down in that same span).

Jacobs will vulture a few, but not as many as last year.

I see your POV. I think with Jacobs being a rookie last year, and coming into his 2nd year, he will be a bit better, and could see more work..I think as the Giants made their playoff push, he probably got less carries due to the fact that he was a rookie, and Coughlin didnt want to put a rookie in situations where he might make a rookie mistake, so he kept Tiki in the game more...Solid reasoning for your thinking though.

 

[H.K.]

I see your POV. I think with Jacobs being a rookie last year, and coming into his 2nd year, he will be a bit better, and could see more work..I think as the Giants made their playoff push, he probably got less carries due to the fact that he was a rookie, and Coughlin didnt want to put a rookie in situations where he might make a rookie mistake, so he kept Tiki in the game more...

Solid reasoning for your thinking though.

Thanks. To your point, the Giants should have high expectations this year and I would expect with Eli having valuable experience under his belt, that the Giants should be contending for their divisional crown. However, the division should be tough to win with DAL, WAS & PHI all looking solid, so I would expect that race to go to the wire. Translation: Coughlin must keep his best players on the field in all situations, which is going to be a boon for Tiki.

 

[FTRWRTR]

I love tiki barber and have him as my #1 rb on my dynasty league but last year was a banner year. It was the second time in nine seasons he started all 16 games, he got more carries than in any other season, he averaged more yards per carry than in any of the previous years and the Giants had a very easy schedule. All of those things factored into him rushing for over 1,800 yards for the first time in his career, his previous high was 1,518 yards in 2004. Unfortunately the Giant's schedule won't be as easy and those other factors that contributed to him having a monster season may not happen as well. Plus Brandon Jacobs may have improved in his 2nd year as a pro.

318 carries for 1,463 yards and 6 TDs, 55 catches for 565 yards and 2 TDs

 

[H.K.]

he got more carries as well as more catches last season than in any other season,

From 1999-2003 Barber had more recepts than he had last year, he averaged over 69 recepts a year in that time frame.

 

[lawyer]

In 2005, Barber finished only 21 yards away from winning the rushing title, with 1860 yards. It was a stellar year for him, and I can only think of a few things that could hamper his success this year.

Cons:

1. Age - Entering his 10th year in the NFL, and at 32 years old, durability could become a concern for Tiki this year. However, over his entire career he has only missed 6 out of 144 games, so he's definitely a strong, durable guy.

2. Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs is definitely Coughlin's goal line back of choice, as evidenced by his 7 TD's in only 38 attempts last year. I don't see Jacobs as a threat to Tiki between the 20's, but once they get near the goal line, Jacobs will get the call. If Tiki had gotten those goal line carries and the TD's, he would have had 16 rush TD's, which would have put him at 4th in the NFL, behind only Alexander, Johnson, and Tomlinson.

Pros:

1. Maturation of Manning (MOM) - Last season, Eli Manning showed a great deal of improvement in the area of maturity and poise. That can only be expected to improve as he gets older, and while this may hurt Tiki's reception numbers (due to Manning's declining reliance on him as a safety valve), but it also increases Manning's ability to stretch the field and force opposing defenses to respect what he can do. This spells open gaps for Tiki, and he's one of the best in the game when he's in the open field.

2. The Plax Factor - To go along with the MOM theory, the Plax Factor will stretch the field and force opposing defenses not to stack the box against Barber, which can only mean good things. Shockey is also a legitimate deep ball threat, and once again, that can only be good for Tiki.

From 2004-2005, Tiki averaged 4.95 yards per carry. I expect that he will average right around there this season as well. I also think that Tiki will be good for 340 carries this year, which is down from his 357 last year because he said that he would like to be spelled a bit more this season, probably due to his increasing age. Backup RB Derrick Ward will likely absorb those extra 17 carries over the season, but he will not make a large impact.

Therefore, my predictions are as follows:

Carries: 340

Rush Yards: 1685

Rush TD: 10

Receptions: 52

Reception Yards: 500

Reception TD: 4

Non-PPR Fantasy Pts (standard scoring): 349

PPR Fantasy Pts (standard scoring): 401

 

[Musesboy]

Tiki Barber has been one of the most undervalued fantasy players for several seasons. Some have pointed to his lack of goal line carries, others have claimed that his age will slow him down, and many thought that Eli Manning would be so ineffective last year that teams would be able to concentrate on stopping Barber. Wrong, wrong and wrong. Last year, Barber accumulated the second-highest number of yards of any RB in the history of the NFL with a total of 2390.

The only thing that can possibly cause Barber to drop in drafts yet again is his age: He is 31 years old. It is all too easy to cite examples showing how quickly RBs decline once they reach the age of 30.

Barber is coming off the best two seasons of his career. He certainly hasn't shown any signs that he is slowing down. In fact, his 5.2 yards per carry last year equaled his career best, and he carried more times than ever before. He is already lifting the maximum weight he achieved last year and says that he is 15% stronger at this stage of the preseason. That sounds like a man who is driven to succeed. There are exceptions to most rules, and I believe that Barber can defy the odds and have a very productive season. Priest Holmes didn't see a huge decline until he turned 32, and I think that Barber can play at a high level for one more season.

The passing game should continue to improve. Eli Manning is entering his third year as the starter and there is certainly still room for improvement. His completion percentage will almost certainly rise. Plaxico Burress will be more familiar with Manning and the system after playing in it last year. Those factors should help prevent defenses from focusing too much on stopping the run.

Prediction

320 carries 1500 yards 7 TDs

50 receptions 440 yards 2 TDs

 

[FTRWRTR]

he got more carries as well as more catches last season than in any other season,

From 1999-2003 Barber had more recepts than he had last year, he averaged over 69 recepts a year in that time frame.

Never have I been so happy to be wrong, thanx for pointing that out

 

[rzrback77]

Everybody seems high on the New York Giants offense for 2006 and with good reason. Eli Manning continues to develop, the offensive line is outstanding, and the receiving options continue to grow in number and ability.

Tiki was a key factor in a lot of fantasy championships last season and folks are still recalling his career year. I agree with many that Tiki is an off-season warrior and it carries through in his performance.

But, Tiki turned 31 years old during the off-season and I feel the need to urge caution. FBGs projects 305 carries for 1479 yards (4.9 ypc) and 54 receptions for 524 yards, and 9 total TDs. That is 2,003 total yards from scrimmage.

I used the stats dominator and found that there have been only two RBs ever to rush for over 1,400 yards at age 31 (walter Payton and Curtis Martin) or greater and only one who recorded over 2,000 yards from scrimmage (Walter Payton that same year).

Tiki has been a bargain for years and this year I see the reverse. I believe that Tiki is a big risk at his current ADP.

I predict 260 carries 1092 yards and 5 TDs, adding 40 catches for 380 yards and 1 TD.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Everybody seems high on the New York Giants offense for 2006 and with good reason. Eli Manning continues to develop, the offensive line is outstanding, and the receiving options continue to grow in number and ability.

Tiki was a key factor in a lot of fantasy championships last season and folks are still recalling his career year. I agree with many that Tiki is an off-season warrior and it carries through in his performance.

But, Tiki turned 31 years old during the off-season and I feel the need to urge caution. FBGs projects 305 carries for 1479 yards (4.9 ypc) and 54 receptions for 524 yards, and 9 total TDs. That is 2,003 total yards from scrimmage.

I used the stats dominator and found that there have been only two RBs ever to rush for over 1,400 yards at age 31 (walter Payton and Curtis Martin) or greater and only one who recorded over 2,000 yards from scrimmage (Walter Payton that same year).

Tiki has been a bargain for years and this year I see the reverse. I believe that Tiki is a big risk at his current ADP.

I predict 260 carries 1092 yards and 5 TDs, adding 40 catches for 380 yards and 1 TD.

That's a huge drop off from last year when all the parts of the NYG offense are returning this year. Do you feel he'll get injured or is this pure dropoff in production? Eli is bound to improve and Plex should continue to develop chemistry with Eli, stretching the field. I agree that Tiki is finally not undervalued by the FF community and is slotted with 5 or 6 others in that second tier of RB's that he should be. It will be highly unlikely that you'll get him at the end of the first/early second this year. I believe he has less question marks surrounding him than the others in his tier though and could easily be the 4th pick in a redraft--Portis would be in this mix too. The only knock on Tiki is his age and the FF community has been harping on that for years now. The only other logic I see is that his ceiling is limited based on last year's record totals. Jacobs will continue to vy for goal line TD 's and Coughlin could well decide to cut his carries a little to keep him fresh for the playoffs. 325 carries, 1540 yards, 9 TD's

48 catches, 490 yards, 2 TD's

 

[rzrback77]

Everybody seems high on the New York Giants offense for 2006 and with good reason.  Eli Manning continues to develop, the offensive line is outstanding, and the receiving options continue to grow in number and ability.

Tiki was a key factor in a lot of fantasy championships last season and folks are still recalling his career year.  I agree with many that Tiki is an off-season warrior and it carries through in his performance.

But, Tiki turned 31 years old during the off-season and I feel the need to urge caution.  FBGs projects 305 carries for 1479 yards (4.9 ypc) and 54 receptions for 524 yards, and 9 total TDs.    That is 2,003 total yards from scrimmage.

I used the stats dominator and found that there have been only two RBs ever to rush for over 1,400 yards at age 31 (walter Payton and Curtis Martin) or greater and only one who recorded over 2,000 yards from scrimmage (Walter Payton that same year).

Tiki has been a bargain for years and this year I see the reverse.  I believe that Tiki is a big risk at his current ADP.

I predict 260 carries 1092 yards and 5 TDs, adding 40 catches for 380 yards and 1 TD.

That's a huge drop off from last year when all the parts of the NYG offense are returning this year. Do you feel he'll get injured or is this pure dropoff in production? Eli is bound to improve and Plex should continue to develop chemistry with Eli, stretching the field. I agree that Tiki is finally not undervalued by the FF community and is slotted with 5 or 6 others in that second tier of RB's that he should be. It will be highly unlikely that you'll get him at the end of the first/early second this year. I believe he has less question marks surrounding him than the others in his tier though and could easily be the 4th pick in a redraft--Portis would be in this mix too. The only knock on Tiki is his age and the FF community has been harping on that for years now. The only other logic I see is that his ceiling is limited based on last year's record totals. Jacobs will continue to vy for goal line TD 's and Coughlin could well decide to cut his carries a little to keep him fresh for the playoffs. 325 carries, 1540 yards, 9 TD's

48 catches, 490 yards, 2 TD's

Yes it is a huge decrease from his ALL-TIME Record for carries and yardage. In the three previous years he had the following:303 for 1386 and 11 TDs

278 for 1216 and 2 TDs

322 for 1518 and 13 TDs

so 260 is not that huge a drop from the 02-04 seasons and he is 31 years old. Not that unreasonable, IMO.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Everybody seems high on the New York Giants offense for 2006 and with good reason. Eli Manning continues to develop, the offensive line is outstanding, and the receiving options continue to grow in number and ability.

Tiki was a key factor in a lot of fantasy championships last season and folks are still recalling his career year. I agree with many that Tiki is an off-season warrior and it carries through in his performance.

But, Tiki turned 31 years old during the off-season and I feel the need to urge caution. FBGs projects 305 carries for 1479 yards (4.9 ypc) and 54 receptions for 524 yards, and 9 total TDs. That is 2,003 total yards from scrimmage.

I used the stats dominator and found that there have been only two RBs ever to rush for over 1,400 yards at age 31 (walter Payton and Curtis Martin) or greater and only one who recorded over 2,000 yards from scrimmage (Walter Payton that same year).

Tiki has been a bargain for years and this year I see the reverse. I believe that Tiki is a big risk at his current ADP.

I predict 260 carries 1092 yards and 5 TDs, adding 40 catches for 380 yards and 1 TD.

That's a huge drop off from last year when all the parts of the NYG offense are returning this year. Do you feel he'll get injured or is this pure dropoff in production? Eli is bound to improve and Plex should continue to develop chemistry with Eli, stretching the field. I agree that Tiki is finally not undervalued by the FF community and is slotted with 5 or 6 others in that second tier of RB's that he should be. It will be highly unlikely that you'll get him at the end of the first/early second this year. I believe he has less question marks surrounding him than the others in his tier though and could easily be the 4th pick in a redraft--Portis would be in this mix too. The only knock on Tiki is his age and the FF community has been harping on that for years now. The only other logic I see is that his ceiling is limited based on last year's record totals. Jacobs will continue to vy for goal line TD 's and Coughlin could well decide to cut his carries a little to keep him fresh for the playoffs. 325 carries, 1540 yards, 9 TD's

48 catches, 490 yards, 2 TD's

Yes it is a huge decrease from his ALL-TIME Record for carries and yardage. In the three previous years he had the following:303 for 1386 and 11 TDs

278 for 1216 and 2 TDs

322 for 1518 and 13 TDs

so 260 is not that huge a drop from the 02-04 seasons and he is 31 years old. Not that unreasonable, IMO.

260 carries and 1092 yards would be his lowest total since 2001 and almost a 30% drop in yards and a 20% drop in carries. His YPR would be his lowest average since 1999 and well below his career average of 4.6. He's been over 300 carries 3 of the last 4 years and barring injury, I think there is no reason to expect him to not be above it again and he's missed something like 2 games in the last 8 years. Unless you subscribe to the wrong side of 30 theory and that is the basis for the drop, I don't see how he can go from 2400 total yards to 1400 in one year--that's over a 40% drop. He has no RB2 vying for carries except Jacobs who vultures goal line opps only and returns the same offense with an extra year of chemsitry (Plex) and experience (Eli). I do expect a drop from his career year last year, but yours is too steep IMHO.

 

[rzrback77]

Everybody seems high on the New York Giants offense for 2006 and with good reason.  Eli Manning continues to develop, the offensive line is outstanding, and the receiving options continue to grow in number and ability.

Tiki was a key factor in a lot of fantasy championships last season and folks are still recalling his career year.  I agree with many that Tiki is an off-season warrior and it carries through in his performance.

But, Tiki turned 31 years old during the off-season and I feel the need to urge caution.  FBGs projects 305 carries for 1479 yards (4.9 ypc) and 54 receptions for 524 yards, and 9 total TDs.    That is 2,003 total yards from scrimmage.

I used the stats dominator and found that there have been only two RBs ever to rush for over 1,400 yards at age 31 (walter Payton and Curtis Martin) or greater and only one who recorded over 2,000 yards from scrimmage (Walter Payton that same year).

Tiki has been a bargain for years and this year I see the reverse.  I believe that Tiki is a big risk at his current ADP.

I predict 260 carries 1092 yards and 5 TDs, adding 40 catches for 380 yards and 1 TD.

That's a huge drop off from last year when all the parts of the NYG offense are returning this year. Do you feel he'll get injured or is this pure dropoff in production? Eli is bound to improve and Plex should continue to develop chemistry with Eli, stretching the field. I agree that Tiki is finally not undervalued by the FF community and is slotted with 5 or 6 others in that second tier of RB's that he should be. It will be highly unlikely that you'll get him at the end of the first/early second this year. I believe he has less question marks surrounding him than the others in his tier though and could easily be the 4th pick in a redraft--Portis would be in this mix too. The only knock on Tiki is his age and the FF community has been harping on that for years now. The only other logic I see is that his ceiling is limited based on last year's record totals. Jacobs will continue to vy for goal line TD 's and Coughlin could well decide to cut his carries a little to keep him fresh for the playoffs. 325 carries, 1540 yards, 9 TD's

48 catches, 490 yards, 2 TD's

Yes it is a huge decrease from his ALL-TIME Record for carries and yardage. In the three previous years he had the following:303 for 1386 and 11 TDs

278 for 1216 and 2 TDs

322 for 1518 and 13 TDs

so 260 is not that huge a drop from the 02-04 seasons and he is 31 years old. Not that unreasonable, IMO.

260 carries and 1092 yards would be his lowest total since 2001 and almost a 30% drop in yards and a 20% drop in carries. His YPR would be his lowest average since 1999 and well below his career average of 4.6. He's been over 300 carries 3 of the last 4 years and barring injury, I think there is no reason to expect him to not be above it again and he's missed something like 2 games in the last 8 years. Unless you subscribe to the wrong side of 30 theory and that is the basis for the drop, I don't see how he can go from 2400 total yards to 1400 in one year--that's over a 40% drop. He has no RB2 vying for carries except Jacobs who vultures goal line opps only and returns the same offense with an extra year of chemsitry (Plex) and experience (Eli). I do expect a drop from his career year last year, but yours is too steep IMHO.

Again with the stats dominator, all-time NFL for RBs over 31 years old, only six have done better than I predicted Tiki Barber for this year. I understand that you disagree, based on Tiki's outstanding season a year ago. But, consider only 1) Walter Payton in 1985 with 2034 total yds from scrimmage

2) Curtis Martin in 2004 with 1942

3) Ricky Watters in 2000 with 1855

4) Tony Dorsett in 1985 with 1756

5) Walter Payton in 1986 with 1715

6) James Brooks in 1989 with 1545

and my prediction for Tiki Barber in 2006 is 1472, which would be seventh highest all-time for a 31-yr old RB.

Maybe I'll be wrong, but I am concerned with his 1260 carries and 244 receptions over the past four years with his 31-year old body. Only Walter Pyton of the group above had more touches in the preceeding four years.

 

[softball]

I'll put this plainly. Tiki is God. He is my main round 1 target in all of my redraft leagues. Period. Not only will he not slow down, I expect this year's stats to dwarf last year's

375 carries for 2,500 and 18 TDs rushing

89 receptions for 1,000 and 6 TDs receiving

anything less would be an insult to his talent

joking aside

320 for 1600 and 8 ru

50 for 450 and 3 rec

great numbers. Will stay in top five of RBs for sure. Only reason I even downgrade him in dynasty is because he said 08 will be his last year (final year of contract extension).

I was going to redo this. But it's perfect.100% agree. Tiki is a Football Player thru and thru.

Next.....

 

[Pots]

Tiki is 31. 31 is the magic number. RBs can't succeed past 30 except Walter payton. And I don't think Tiki's last name is Payton. Nope i checked nfl.com, it's Barber, not Payton. Plus he's turning 31. He can't do well at 31. He's too old. It doesn't matter what he did last year, or the year before that, or the year before that. I don't care what team he's on, or what taltnets around him. Office line doesn't matter as much as the fact that he's 31. 31 people!!! Cmon. This is a no brianer.

I think I pretty much summed up your argument.

 

[fatboyj711]

I'll put this plainly. Tiki is God. He is my main round 1 target in all of my redraft leagues. Period. Not only will he not slow down, I expect this year's stats to dwarf last year's

375 carries for 2,500 and 18 TDs rushing

89 receptions for 1,000 and 6 TDs receiving

anything less would be an insult to his talent

joking aside

320 for 1600 and 8 ru

50 for 450 and 3 rec

great numbers. Will stay in top five of RBs for sure. Only reason I even downgrade him in dynasty is because he said 08 will be his last year (final year of contract extension).

Last year was the year to target tiki, not this year... last years workload + difficult schedule + age = production below his ADP

 

[rzrback77]

Tiki is 31. 31 is the magic number. RBs can't succeed past 30 except Walter payton. And I don't think Tiki's last name is Payton. Nope i checked nfl.com, it's Barber, not Payton. Plus he's turning 31. He can't do well at 31. He's too old. It doesn't matter what he did last year, or the year before that, or the year before that. I don't care what team he's on, or what taltnets around him. Office line doesn't matter as much as the fact that he's 31. 31 people!!! Cmon. This is a no brianer.

I think I pretty much summed up your argument.

At the very least, if you are going to write for me, you could spell better.The red above is part of my reasoning for a decrease, He has had over 1500 touches in the previous four years. I also understand that I am in the minority here as he has an ADP of 6 overall, but that is where you will have to take him and that sounds an alarm for me.Also, I am curious. What does the office line matter and what are taltnets?

 

[jurb26]

The combonation of both touches last year and age is disturbingly high IMO for Barber heading into this season. Barber will be overvalued. I see him going top 5 in most leagues. We could see a Martin like bomb for him dropped this year, but I still think that is a bit extreme.

300 carries, 1340 yds, 8 TDs, 50 rec, 460 yds, 1 TD

 

[David Yudkin]

I see a lot of optimism on Barber in this thread. As a Barber owner, I like to see it.

However, I've posted many times that Barber is one of several backs out there today that is crossing into areas that few RB have produced at a very high level--AGE and WORKLOAD.

Barber scored 305 fantasy points last season and will be 31 for this upcoming season. Only three RB 31 or older have scored even 250 points in a season (Riggins, Martin, Payton) with Riggins the most at 281 points.

The other issue is that Barber will be hitting his 2,500 career touch (rushes and receptions combined)--another milestone that often coincides with depleted numbers. You can count the # of RB that have crossed the 2,500 barrier and still had a Top 5 season on one hand (Martin, Emmitt, Sanders, Payton, and Allen).

People will argue that Barber is different, he's in shape, he gets a big workload, he's this, he's that. On the surface, I agree that there should not be some fabricated line in the sand that suddenly he will hit the wall and fall to pieces.

But in recent seasons, we've seen players like Faulk, Holmes, Dillon, Martin (he actually was one year older when he dipped), SDavis, Bettis, and George be viable fantasy studs seemingly one season and banged up, unproductive, or in a limited role soon thereafter.

I'm certainly NOT suggesting that Barber will turn into a major disaster this year and end up in an ICU for fantasy RB just because others have. But be forewarned that not many RB have been dominant at his age with his workload . . .

 

[Snotbubbles]

But in recent seasons, we've seen players like Faulk, Holmes, Dillon, Martin (he actually was one year older when he dipped), SDavis, Bettis, and George be viable fantasy studs seemingly one season and banged up, unproductive, or in a limited role soon thereafter.

Faulk had knee problems well before his decline and it was amazing he lasted as long as he did.Dillon, Davis, Bettis and George poor running style that required them to take too much punishment per carry on a year to year basis.Holmes didn't decline, he just got injured and therefore didn't perform for a full season.Curtis Martin actually is the one RB who didn't have a punishing style of running and no injury history...oh wait he's also the one who performed when he was 31.

 

[jurb26]

Curtis Martin actually is the one RB who didn't have a punishing style of running and no injury history...oh wait he's also the one who performed when he was 31.

I wouldn't be so quick to try and paint that in a positive light. Martin, like Barber this year, was coming off a career high in both touches and yds at 30+ yrs old and the follwing season was an absolute bomb for him. Like I said, it's the combo of both age and touches late into his career just last season that raises some red flags IMO. Barber touched the ball 411 times last year at 31 yrs old. His previous career high was 374 and it was the very year before last. So thats 2 years in a row now late in his career that he is taking on a rather lofty number of touches and setting career highs. I'm not saying that Barber will bomb like Martin did and my projections don't reflect that kind of season in the least. However, the risk is rather great IMO. All guys break down and at 30+ it seems more likely to happen to RBs. You compound that with RBs who also set career highs in touches and I see some serious concerns for a guy going concensous top 5. Everyone was saying this time last year how tough and durible Martin was too. How his running style did not lead to normal wear and tear of other backs. Well, his career high touches and yds still reared it's ugly head and Martin went through a season in which he was not only ineffective, but knicked up and overall just a lesser RB then we were used to seeing. To ignore that this could happen to Barber as well seems a bit foolhardy to me but I understand that everyone is used to "Barber = value" line of thinking. Really though, does Barber = value at pick number 5?

 

[Snotbubbles]

Really though, does Barber = value at pick number 5?

Other than Larry Johnson, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander and maybe, maybe Portis who does = value at 5?

 

[David Yudkin]

But in recent seasons, we've seen players like Faulk, Holmes, Dillon, Martin (he actually was one year older when he dipped), SDavis, Bettis, and George be viable fantasy studs seemingly one season and banged up, unproductive, or in a limited role soon thereafter.

Faulk had knee problems well before his decline and it was amazing he lasted as long as he did.Dillon, Davis, Bettis and George poor running style that required them to take too much punishment per carry on a year to year basis.

Holmes didn't decline, he just got injured and therefore didn't perform for a full season.

Curtis Martin actually is the one RB who didn't have a punishing style of running and no injury history...oh wait he's also the one who performed when he was 31.

The stat book cares not what REASONS players did not rank higher or perform better. The bottom line is that elite RB performace by guys 31+ has been a very rare commodity. Not saying it can't happen, only that it's been rare.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The stat book cares not what REASONS players did not rank higher or perform better. The bottom line is that elite RB performace by guys 31+ has been a very rare commodity. Not saying it can't happen, only that it's been rare.

But it has happened.

 

[David Yudkin]

The stat book cares not what REASONS players did not rank higher or perform better. The bottom line is that elite RB performace by guys 31+ has been a very rare commodity. Not saying it can't happen, only that it's been rare.

But it has happened.

Even if it DIDN'T happen, that doesn't mean it COULDN'T happen.

 

[jurb26]

Really though, does Barber = value at pick number 5?

Other than Larry Johnson, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander and maybe, maybe Portis who does = value at 5?

Well I happen to prefer Jordan, Caddy, R.Brown and Rudi over him at #5 for sure. Some others could sneak in there which include Jackson, Edge and Westy. Needless to say however, #5 is not a position I hope to be drafting in this year. IMO it is the WORST spot to draft from this year. #4 being the best.

 

[H.K.]

The stat book cares not what REASONS players did not rank higher or perform better. The bottom line is that elite RB performace by guys 31+ has been a very rare commodity. Not saying it can't happen, only that it's been rare.

But it has happened.

Even if it DIDN'T happen, that doesn't mean it COULDN'T happen.

Ergo, it is a statistical possibility.

 

[David Yudkin]

The stat book cares not what REASONS players did not rank higher or perform better. The bottom line is that elite RB performace by guys 31+ has been a very rare commodity. Not saying it can't happen, only that it's been rare.

But it has happened.

Even if it DIDN'T happen, that doesn't mean it COULDN'T happen.

Ergo, it is a statistical possibility.

I cannot fathom Barber having the season that you projected, but I suppose it is possible. Highly unlikely, but possible.

 

[H.K.]

The stat book cares not what REASONS players did not rank higher or perform better. The bottom line is that elite RB performace by guys 31+ has been a very rare commodity. Not saying it can't happen, only that it's been rare.

But it has happened.

Even if it DIDN'T happen, that doesn't mean it COULDN'T happen.

Ergo, it is a statistical possibility.

I cannot fathom Barber having the season that you projected, but I suppose it is possible. Highly unlikely, but possible.

So you're saying there's a chance...

 

[Pots]

Really though, does Barber = value at pick number 5?

Other than Larry Johnson, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander and maybe, maybe Portis who does = value at 5?

After LJ, LT, Shaun, Portis, and Barber, you're looking at a pretty big drop off.

 

[Assani Fisher]

He has missed only 2 games in eight seasons and none in the past four years.

It was the second time in nine seasons he started all 16 games

 

[wannabee]

+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Rushing | Receiving |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1997 nyg | 12 | 136 511 3.8 3 | 34 299 8.8 1 |

| 1998 nyg | 16 | 52 166 3.2 0 | 42 348 8.3 3 |

| 1999 nyg | 16 | 62 258 4.2 0 | 66 609 9.2 2 |

| 2000 nyg | 16 | 213 1006 4.7 8 | 70 719 10.3 1 |

| 2001 nyg | 14 | 166 865 5.2 4 | 72 577 8.0 0 |

| 2002 nyg | 16 | 303 1386 4.6 11 | 69 597 8.7 0 |

| 2003 nyg | 16 | 278 1216 4.4 2 | 69 461 6.7 1 |

| 2004 nyg | 16 | 322 1518 4.7 13 | 52 578 11.1 2 |

| 2005 nyg | 16 | 357 1860 5.2 9 | 54 530 9.8 2 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 138 | 1889 8786 4.7 50 | 528 4718 8.9 12

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BarbTi00.htm

 

[rzrback77]

Curtis Martin actually is the one RB who didn't have a punishing style of running and no injury history...oh wait he's also the one who performed when he was 31.

I wouldn't be so quick to try and paint that in a positive light. Martin, like Barber this year, was coming off a career high in both touches and yds at 30+ yrs old and the follwing season was an absolute bomb for him. Like I said, it's the combo of both age and touches late into his career just last season that raises some red flags IMO. Barber touched the ball 411 times last year at 31 yrs old. His previous career high was 374 and it was the very year before last. So thats 2 years in a row now late in his career that he is taking on a rather lofty number of touches and setting career highs. I'm not saying that Barber will bomb like Martin did and my projections don't reflect that kind of season in the least. However, the risk is rather great IMO. All guys break down and at 30+ it seems more likely to happen to RBs. You compound that with RBs who also set career highs in touches and I see some serious concerns for a guy going concensous top 5. Everyone was saying this time last year how tough and durible Martin was too. How his running style did not lead to normal wear and tear of other backs. Well, his career high touches and yds still reared it's ugly head and Martin went through a season in which he was not only ineffective, but knicked up and overall just a lesser RB then we were used to seeing. To ignore that this could happen to Barber as well seems a bit foolhardy to me but I understand that everyone is used to "Barber = value" line of thinking. Really though, does Barber = value at pick number 5?

 

[rzrback77]

I see a lot of optimism on Barber in this thread. As a Barber owner, I like to see it.

However, I've posted many times that Barber is one of several backs out there today that is crossing into areas that few RB have produced at a very high level--AGE and WORKLOAD.

Barber scored 305 fantasy points last season and will be 31 for this upcoming season. Only three RB 31 or older have scored even 250 points in a season (Riggins, Martin, Payton) with Riggins the most at 281 points.

The other issue is that Barber will be hitting his 2,500 career touch (rushes and receptions combined)--another milestone that often coincides with depleted numbers. You can count the # of RB that have crossed the 2,500 barrier and still had a Top 5 season on one hand (Martin, Emmitt, Sanders, Payton, and Allen).

People will argue that Barber is different, he's in shape, he gets a big workload, he's this, he's that. On the surface, I agree that there should not be some fabricated line in the sand that suddenly he will hit the wall and fall to pieces.

But in recent seasons, we've seen players like Faulk, Holmes, Dillon, Martin (he actually was one year older when he dipped), SDavis, Bettis, and George be viable fantasy studs seemingly one season and banged up, unproductive, or in a limited role soon thereafter.

I'm certainly NOT suggesting that Barber will turn into a major disaster this year and end up in an ICU for fantasy RB just because others have. But be forewarned that not many RB have been dominant at his age with his workload . . .

 

[Cool in the pocket]

I see a lot of optimism on Barber in this thread. As a Barber owner, I like to see it.

However, I've posted many times that Barber is one of several backs out there today that is crossing into areas that few RB have produced at a very high level--AGE and WORKLOAD.

Barber scored 305 fantasy points last season and will be 31 for this upcoming season. Only three RB 31 or older have scored even 250 points in a season (Riggins, Martin, Payton) with Riggins the most at 281 points.

The other issue is that Barber will be hitting his 2,500 career touch (rushes and receptions combined)--another milestone that often coincides with depleted numbers. You can count the # of RB that have crossed the 2,500 barrier and still had a Top 5 season on one hand (Martin, Emmitt, Sanders, Payton, and Allen).

People will argue that Barber is different, he's in shape, he gets a big workload, he's this, he's that. On the surface, I agree that there should not be some fabricated line in the sand that suddenly he will hit the wall and fall to pieces.

But in recent seasons, we've seen players like Faulk, Holmes, Dillon, Martin (he actually was one year older when he dipped), SDavis, Bettis, and George be viable fantasy studs seemingly one season and banged up, unproductive, or in a limited role soon thereafter.

I'm certainly NOT suggesting that Barber will turn into a major disaster this year and end up in an ICU for fantasy RB just because others have. But be forewarned that not many RB have been dominant at his age with his workload . . .

I agree that Barber doesn't represent value this year--I think I mentioned it in one of my posts and I also agree that the number 5 slot is the worst spot to draft in this year. Tiki could very well fall off the map or not as the magical 31 barrier is just that a stat that has been corroborated by how many players? How many had injury histories that may or may not have been factors? A number of the ones David Yudkin posted did for sure. Barber has no injury history and has been remarkably durable in fact. Sooner or later that magical line in the sand is going to move because it is just that; a number that RB's hit where things go south, but it could really be 31 or 34 just as easily. Until the sample size increases, I don't see how it can be viewed as anything else but. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be surprised if he fell below my projection either--I just don't think he'll drop over 40% like you project.

 

[cowpie]

Right now Tiki is being ranked in the top 4 RB this year. He is 31 years old and FBG did an article in 2004 stating that no player 31 or older (since 1993) has finished in the top 5 in RB.

Not only that, but he is coming off a career year and no player seems to repeat that especially when they are 31. And, the giants are supposed to have a really tough schedule this year.

Also, Not that you can predict injuries, but when a RB his 31 things start to break. and they start to really slow down. just ask holmes or faulk.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Also, Not that you can predict injuries, but when a RB his 31 things start to break. and they start to really slow down. just ask holmes or faulk.

Could that not just as easily be 32, 34, 29??

 

[cowpie]

Also,  Not that you can predict injuries, but when a RB his 31 things start to break. and they start to really slow down. just ask holmes or faulk.

Could that not just as easily be 32, 34, 29??

happens more the older you get. for what ever reason, the FBG article stated that 31 was the number.

if you have the subscription go to archieves and read it in the 2004 year.

 

[Provy Wit]

Hey guys

I think this is a great thread, and honestly with the 5th pick after reasdng this I really am at a quandry, I agree with the pro Barber standpoint that hes the focal point, hes in great shape blah blah blah

I also buy into the fact that hes hitting 31 and other than a recent Curtis Martin, no RB has even come close to putting up the prior years numbers.

Now to be honest its not even fair to project 2300 yds for Barber this year and I think most people with the 5th pick would sign up for 1800 combined yards and 8-10 TD's. I think thats the attitude I'm taking into this.

Still I'm left with the thought in the back of my mind that he may completly fall apart this year. With that said my question is this

If Barber is overvalued at #5, what RB is the correct value with the 5th pick without taking a risk?????

When you answer me that question with any conviction I will be more than happy to focus my attentions to that back

 

[Musesboy]

If Barber is overvalued at #5, what RB is the correct value with the 5th pick without taking a risk?????

When you answer me that question with any conviction I will be more than happy to focus my attentions to that back

My vote for the lowest risk back after the top four is Rudi Johnson. My full reasoning is in that thread.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=250984

 

[Cool in the pocket]

If Barber is overvalued at #5, what RB is the correct value with the 5th pick without taking a risk?????

When you answer me that question with any conviction I will be more than happy to focus my attentions to that back

My vote for the lowest risk back after the top four is Rudi Johnson. My full reasoning is in that thread.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=250984

I'm on record in saying that the 5th pick this year is a horrible spot to be in. If you can't trade out of it and you're taking an RB, u r looking at Tiki, Rudi, Edge, Lamont, SJax and some migh throw Ronnie in there. If you subscribe to the age theory, then Tiki is out, but there isn't a lot of logic behind it--it just happens. I'd agree with Muses that Rudi is probably the safest after that decision is made--he may not have the upside of the others, but his floor is pretty high too. If this is PPR, Tiki should get a long look as Rudi isn't involved much there.

 

[Provy Wit]

If Barber is overvalued at #5, what RB is the correct value with the 5th pick without taking a risk?????

When you answer me that question with any conviction I will be more than happy to focus my attentions to that back

My vote for the lowest risk back after the top four is Rudi Johnson. My full reasoning is in that thread.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=250984

Problem with Rudi which in no way makes me take him over Tiki is that he doesnt catch any passes from the backfield. Barber could collapse this year and hes still going to eclpise 1400 yds

 

[Musesboy]

If Barber is overvalued at #5, what RB is the correct value with the 5th pick without taking a risk?????

When you answer me that question with any conviction I will be more than happy to focus my attentions to that back

My vote for the lowest risk back after the top four is Rudi Johnson. My full reasoning is in that thread.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=250984

Problem with Rudi which in no way makes me take him over Tiki is that he doesnt catch any passes from the backfield. Barber could collapse this year and hes still going to eclpise 1400 yds

Yes, the scoring system is vital. If receptions are rewarded, Barber's value shoots up. If it leans toward TDs, it drops considerably. I would probably try and trade down a couple of spots if I were targeting Johnson rather than take him at five, assuming the scoring system was in his favor.

 

[jurb26]

If Barber is overvalued at #5, what RB is the correct value with the 5th pick without taking a risk?????

When you answer me that question with any conviction I will be more than happy to focus my attentions to that back

My vote for the lowest risk back after the top four is Rudi Johnson. My full reasoning is in that thread.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=250984

Problem with Rudi which in no way makes me take him over Tiki is that he doesnt catch any passes from the backfield. Barber could collapse this year and hes still going to eclpise 1400 yds

A healthy Rudi will RUSH for 1400 yds, book it.

|          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2002 cin |   7 |    17     67    3.9    0 |     6     34   5.7    0 || 2003 cin |  13 |   215    957    4.5    9 |    21    146   7.0    0 || 2004 cin |  16 |   361   1454    4.0   12 |    15     84   5.6    0 || 2005 cin |  16 |   337   1458    4.3   12 |    23     90   3.9    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  52 |   930   3936    4.2   33 |    65    354   5.4    0

I'm not seeing the problem here.