Player Spotlight: Tony Gonzalez (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Tony Gonzalez Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Snotbubbles]

In 2005 Tony Gonzalez put up some very nice numbers for a TE 78-905-2, but certainly not what Gonzo owners were used to.

I have had Gonzo on my team virtually every year and the one thing I noticed was that when Wille Roaf was out of the lineup he was asked to stay in and block, or to line up in a down position and chip DEs. This was enough to limit his down the field pass routes which resulted in a slightly less YPC average and virtually no TD production. Without Roaf, Gonzo averaged 9.6 YPC. With Roaf, Gonzo average 13.1 YPC.

I think with a healthy offensive line Gonzo will put up good numbers in 2006:

82-1041-6

 

[The Jacket]

I agree with the previous poster, and especially with regards to the health of the offensive line. Gonzalez is still an elite receiving target providing the opportunities are there.

Gates has surpassed him as the #1 fantasy tight end in football, but I believe Gonzalez is still the best alternative - better than Heap, Crumpler, Shockey, Witten, etc.

Prediction: 77 receptions, 1024 yards (13.3 ypc), 7 TDs.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Gonzalez is getting a little older but that has not affected his production. I currently rank him at #3 after Gates and Shockey. His career averages are 72 receptions for 868 yards and 6 touchdowns. I see similar production to his average for the upcoming season.

75 rec. - 900 yards - 7 TD's

 

[The Mechanic]

If your league gives you points per rec. amd 1 pt. for 20 yards rec. THEN Gonzo is a pretty safe pick.

BUT, if your league is a TD only league , or a league that gives no points for rec and 5 points for more than 100 yds rec and then 1 point for every 20+ yards for rec... then there are better choices to be had at his ADP...

65-725-4

EDIT for spelling & Proj.

 

[FTRWRTR]

Herm edwards runs a much more conservative offense than #### vermeil. In fact the top 3 tight ends for the jets combined for just 53 catches and 2 TDs last year. On top of that the Chiefs lost tony richardson which will force gonzo to stay in and help block rather than go out for passes.

60 receptions for 846 yards and 5 TDs

 

[MLBrandow]

103/1182/11 :googleyeyes:

 

[The Jacket]

Herm edwards runs a much more conservative offense than #### vermeil. In fact the top 3 tight ends for the jets combined for just 53 catches and 2 TDs last year. On top of that the Chiefs lost tony richardson which will force gonzo to stay in and help block rather than go out for passes.

60 receptions for 846 yards and 5 TDs

With all due respect, the Jets' tight ends are not in the same galaxy as Gonzalez when it comes to talent or ability to produce at a high level.I understand what you're saying but Edwards seems like he's willing to play to the team's strengths, and Gonzalez is one of the main strengths KC has. Whether or not it holds true, it's been said by everyone within the Chiefs organzation that, "the offense is not going to change".

Your point regarding Richardson is a good one, but it must be noted that he participated in only 30-something percent of the Chiefs' offensive plays last season, and when he did participate, it was often as a lead blocker. I don't believe that Gonzalez will spend a lot of time pass blocking because there's no more Tony Richardson.

Now, if Roaf was to get injured again - look out. Fantasy owners' nightmare, that is.

 

[CalBear]

It's interesting how little discussion Gonzo has generated. I think he's being overlooked for younger and sexier players at his position, and people are focusing too much on his small TD total from 2005. Fact is, Gonzalez was still the #2 TE in the league in receptions and yardage in 2005, and the likely situation with Herm Edwards coming into town is that he'll get more red zone work than he did in 2005; few coaches feed the ball to their RB in the red zone as much as Vermeil does. With Gates' situation uncertain due to a new QB, Gonzo could easily wind up as the #1 TE again, and he should certainly be in the top 3.

His three-year averages: 84/1026, 6 TD. Those are some studly TE numbers. I think his 102 receptions in 2004 were somewhat anomalous, but I think the same of his 2 TDs in 2005.

My projections: 75/900, 7 TD. Good for TE#1 after Gates falters (though Gates will be in the same neighberhood).

 

[mlball77]

I think its possible that the KC offense may drop a small peg this year... still be very good, but not quite as good. With that said, Gonzo is still the top receiving threat the Chiefs have and I think he still has a couple of very productive seasons left in the tank.

Recs: 77

Yds: 900

TDs: 6

 

[H.K.]

In the "what have you done for me lately" world of fantasy football, it is easy to look at a player's most recent season and forget about previous ones. Gonzo appears to be the player this year that is being substantially overlooked based on one season's performance.

The Chiefs passed for TD totals of 27, 27, & 24 respectively since 2002 heading into last season. However, the 2005 campaign they only had 17 scores through the air, and only two to Gonzalez.

While last season was deemed a disappoinment, he still caught 78 passes for over 900 yards!!! If his TD total were in his normal 6-9 range, he's easily the #2 TE last year.

Everyone has the opinion that Edwards and the Chiefs will be nothing but the LJ show, but before last year's disaster in NY, the Jets averaged over 21 TD's a season under Herm since 2002. KC will still throw the ball, and Gonzo is still the best option to target in that pahse of the game.

All Gonzo needs to do this year to rebound is score more, well that won't be too hard to accomplish with a handful of play actions as opposing defenses sell out against the run on the goal line.

Gonzo is maybe the best overall value on the board this season, he'll return to #1 FF TE with a substantially lower price tag.

81 recepts

964 yards

9 TD's

 

[Futeki]

Gonzo will return for a one year stint as the #1 TE. Gates will be very close behind due to having a slightly down year.

79 receptions

970 yards

9 TDs

 

[The Jacket]

In the "what have you done for me lately" world of fantasy football, it is easy to look at a player's most recent season and forget about previous ones. Gonzo appears to be the player this year that is being substantially overlooked based on one season's performance.

The Chiefs passed for TD totals of 27, 27, & 24 respectively since 2002 heading into last season. However, the 2005 campaign they only had 17 scores through the air, and only two to Gonzalez.

While last season was deemed a disappoinment, he still caught 78 passes for over 900 yards!!! If his TD total were in his normal 6-9 range, he's easily the #2 TE last year.

Everyone has the opinion that Edwards and the Chiefs will be nothing but the LJ show, but before last year's disaster in NY, the Jets averaged over 21 TD's a season under Herm since 2002. KC will still throw the ball, and Gonzo is still the best option to target in that pahse of the game.

All Gonzo needs to do this year to rebound is score more, well that won't be too hard to accomplish with a handful of play actions as opposing defenses sell out against the run on the goal line.

Gonzo is maybe the best overall value on the board this season, he'll return to #1 FF TE with a substantially lower price tag.

81 recepts

964 yards

9 TD's

The only thing I would add is that I'd like to see more "big" plays from Gonzalez. But that, in and of itself, can be credited to the lack of pass protection for a large majority of last season.

When the offensive line was healthy, he began to run more vertical patterns exploiting the defense (see: Denver, Dallas).

 

[Shiver44]

He only has 4 touchdowns in the last 24 games. Not to mention, under Herm/Solari the Chief's passing game will be conservative. I think he will be overvalued on draft day. No longer is he the king of the position. I see no reason why he is more valuable than Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap or Alge Crumpler.

 

[MLBrandow]

He only has 4 touchdowns in the last 24 games. Not to mention, under Herm/Solari the Chief's passing game will be conservative. I think he will be overvalued on draft day. No longer is he the king of the position. I see no reason why he is more valuable than Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap or Alge Crumpler.

I think it's more of personal taste now. Only a few years ago, it was like... Gonzo, Heap, Pollard, and then what....Now there's a dozen or so viable TE options, and they came about (IMO) from Gonzo's dominance of the position.

I think I agree with your statement, but since he's a surefire hit at the top 3, I wouldn't say he's over-valued. He's in the most desirable position as a TE.

1) bunch of short WRs that aren't legitimate red zone threats

2) great running game

3) QB that loves to dump off to TE

 

[David Yudkin]

He only has 4 touchdowns in the last 24 games. Not to mention, under Herm/Solari the Chief's passing game will be conservative. I think he will be overvalued on draft day. No longer is he the king of the position. I see no reason why he is more valuable than Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap or Alge Crumpler.

Since you asked . . .# of 900 yard seasons:

Gonzo 5

Shockey 0

Heap 0

Crumpler 0

# of 75 reception seasons:

Gonzo 4

Shockey 0

Heap 1

Crumpler 0

The only difference between last year and prior seasons for Tony G. was a curious dip in TD. He averaged 8.33 TD the prior 6 years. Even with Gates around, if Gonzalez gets back to that level he would be the #2 TE (assuming Gates stays at #1). And isn't throwing to the TE considered "conservative" play calling?

 

[The Jacket]

Not to mention, under Herm/Solari the Chief's passing game will be conservative.

There are two things I question in this statement.1.) Since when has throwing to a tight end been anything more than conservative offense?2.) Edwards has stated numerous times that the offense isn't going to change. Sure, the Chiefs might run a little more, use a little less trickery and disguise, but they're not going to throw out the playbook in favor of, "RUN JOHNSON LEFT", "RUN JOHNSON RIGHT", "PASS IF SOMEONE's OPEN".

 

[nerangers]

Gonzo has durability on his side, and will play out 16 games. Seems to start off slow in the beginning of the season though.

I am not expecting a 90+ reception season out of Gonzo (which is what he needed for his two big seasons), but more like 75. Gonzo is still good for 12 yds a reception as well. I think the Chiefs will look to use Larry Johnson in the redzone as well, which will cut into Gonzo's TD production again like last year.

75, 900 yds, 5 TDs

 

[jurb26]

I have 3 major problems when I look at Gonzo for this season:

Roaf, 36

Sheilds, 34

Green, 36

These are 3 players I see as directly related to the success of Gonzo and in large part the success of the KC offence as a whole this year. All of these guys seem to be entering the twilight of thier careers and quite frankly I just don't trust them anymore. Gonzo is still a great player but an injury to any 1 of these 3 guys could cripple his season IMO. Not only that, but when will these players abilities begin to regress enough that it is greatly impacting them on the field? Then you aslo factor in the new coaches and there just seems to be more risk here than what the reward is likely worth. Guys like Heap, Shockey and Crumpler just seem to be better options and can probably be had later. Either way, Gonzo whould have a solid season. I'm just not sold that he comes back to elite form.

65 rec, 770 yds, 6 TDs

 

[The Jacket]

If you think Will Shields going down could "cripple" the Chiefs offense, and especially Gonzalez' production, you need to watch more Kansas City games.

 

[jurb26]

If you think Will Shields going down could "cripple" the Chiefs offense, and especially Gonzalez' production, you need to watch more Kansas City games.

How many games have you watched where Shields has gone down exactly?

 

[MLBrandow]

How many games have you watched where Shields has gone down exactly?

This likely will be the last season for all three, IMO.However, I have the Chiefs pegged for the Super Bowl title... so obviously I don't think it will be a problem.

It's certainly legitimate to blame age, but I don't think you can call Shields or Roaf "risks" to the OL.

 

[jurb26]

How many games have you watched where Shields has gone down exactly?

This likely will be the last season for all three, IMO.However, I have the Chiefs pegged for the Super Bowl title... so obviously I don't think it will be a problem.

It's certainly legitimate to blame age, but I don't think you can call Shields or Roaf "risks" to the OL.

The risk is if their play deteriorates this year from the age. That or an inability to stay healthy. If they play like years past and remain healthy then they are the best tandem in the NFL. As they say though, all good things must come to an end.

 

[The Jacket]

If you think Will Shields going down could "cripple" the Chiefs offense, and especially Gonzalez' production, you need to watch more Kansas City games.

How many games have you watched where Shields has gone down exactly?

I've watched every game of his career. But more importantly, I watched every snap he played in 2005 -- and with great disappointment.Your points regarding Trent Green and Willie Roaf were valid ones, hense why I did not mention them.

But not only is Will Shields a guard, he's now merely a "good" guard. He's not the Will Shields of old. Brian Waters is a lot better. Shields struggled last season for much of the year. That's why I called you on that player and that player only.

The Chiefs' offense very may well tank without a few players; the problem, however, is that none of them include Will Shields.

 

[shadow2k]

I know everyone likes to focus on how Roaf was hurt. But there was another reason that Gonzo was back blocking more. LJ sucks at pass blocking.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I know everyone likes to focus on how Roaf was hurt. But there was another reason that Gonzo was back blocking more. LJ sucks at pass blocking.

Gonzo's stats prior to Priest Holmes getting injured when Roaf did not play:Week 2: 5-44-0Week 3: 5-29-0Week 4: 2-5-0Gonzo's stats AFTER Priest Holmes got injured when Roaf did not play:Week 9: 5-70-0Week 10: 8-81-0Week 11: 9-98-0I'd say Gonzo did much better with LJ/No Roaf then he did with Holmes/No Roaf.

 

[robinchicago@excite.com]

In the past I have targetted Gonzo early (3rd-4th RD) and held a distinct advantage over the rest of the league. With the difference between #2TE and #8TE flattening out I plan to wait and take McMichael, Cooley, or Witten in the 7th-8th RD this year. It's a change in strategy to match the strengthening of the position.

I think Gonzo will improve over last year's stats, because I don't see how he can stay out of the end zone as much as he did last year. Receptions and YDs will be flat, but TD go up. He'll be in the top 5 for sure. I'm just planning to use my 3-4th round picks on a WR/QB this year instead. Not only that, who else besides Kennison will catch the ball in KC?

2006 Projections

80 Receptions, 900 YDS and 6TD

 

[shadow2k]

I know everyone likes to focus on how Roaf was hurt. But there was another reason that Gonzo was back blocking more. LJ sucks at pass blocking.

Gonzo's stats prior to Priest Holmes getting injured when Roaf did not play:Week 2: 5-44-0

Week 3: 5-29-0

Week 4: 2-5-0

Gonzo's stats AFTER Priest Holmes got injured when Roaf did not play:

Week 9: 5-70-0

Week 10: 8-81-0

Week 11: 9-98-0

I'd say Gonzo did much better with LJ/No Roaf then he did with Holmes/No Roaf.

What? Roaf missed the first six weeks of the season. He started the last 10.Selective picking stats is silly anyway. These are all games with LJ and Roaf.

4/63/0

1/25/1

4/51/0

5/58/0

5/59/0

You could claim any number of reasons for why. Maybe they were feeding LJ the ball, maybe they were winning and didn't need to throw, etc... But I've watched every Chief's game since before Gonzo came into the league.

With Roaf and LJ, extra blocking help was still needed, because LJ was whiffing on blocks. Green wasn't getting time to get the ball downfield. That's why his stats didn't suddenly go up when Roaf came back, because Priest went down and LJ couldn't block. So they just kept pounding it with LJ, who would get pulled on third downs. Sometimes even in favor of freakin Dee Brown for god's sake. But then the whole world knew they were passing.

Blocking has always been the knock on LJ, other than the diapers thing. And unless he's suddenly become capable of not entirely missing his guy, the Chief's passing game will continue to suffer. And LJ will continue to benefit. And Gonzo won't catching 80 passes, break 900yds, or get over 7TD's. And you can get that from any number of TE's that won't cost you any more than a late round draft pick.

 

[Snotbubbles]

What? Roaf missed the first six weeks of the season. He started the last 10.

Umm, no he didn't. He missed weeks 2, 3 and 4. Had a BYE on week 5. Then missed weeks 9, 10 and 11.

Selective picking stats is silly anyway. These are all games with LJ and Roaf.

Not selectively picking stats. I'm showing you that Gonzo performed better when Roaf was out when LJ was in the backfield as opposed to when Priest/LJ were in the backfield. Thus dispelling the notion you had when you said:

But there was another reason that Gonzo was back blocking more. LJ sucks at pass blocking.

Because Gonzo performed better with LJ/No Roaf then he did with Priest/No Roaf.

With Roaf and LJ, extra blocking help was still needed, because LJ was whiffing on blocks. Green wasn't getting time to get the ball downfield. That's why his stats didn't suddenly go up when Roaf came back, because Priest went down and LJ couldn't block. So they just kept pounding it with LJ, who would get pulled on third downs. Sometimes even in favor of freakin Dee Brown for god's sake. But then the whole world knew they were passing.Blocking has always been the knock on LJ, other than the diapers thing. And unless he's suddenly become capable of not entirely missing his guy, the Chief's passing game will continue to suffer. And LJ will continue to benefit. And Gonzo won't catching 80 passes, break 900yds, or get over 7TD's. And you can get that from any number of TE's that won't cost you any more than a late round draft pick.

Dude, you have no idea what you're talking about. 1 nyj | 15 26 200 0 1 | 1 -1 0 || 2 oak | 18 28 237 0 0 | 4 2 0 || 3 den | 23 44 221 1 0 | 0 0 0 || 4 phi | 19 30 221 2 2 | 1 3 0 || 6 was | 15 25 181 1 0 | 5 25 0 || 7 mia | 20 34 289 0 0 | 2 -2 0 || 8 sdg | 31 43 347 2 0 | 1 2 0 || 9 oak | 22 35 235 1 0 | 1 0 0 || 10 buf | 23 40 220 0 3 | 1 4 0 || 11 hou | 19 29 220 3 1 | 1 11 0 || 12 nwe | 19 26 323 1 0 | 4 -2 0 || 13 den | 16 23 253 2 2 | 3 13 0 || 14 dal | 20 32 340 1 0 | 0 0 0 || 15 nyg | 15 28 176 0 1 | 2 21 0 || 16 sdg | 19 35 207 2 0 | 4 7 0 || 17 cin | 23 29 344 1 0 | 5 -1 0 |The passing game became more effective for the Chiefs once Priest got hurt.With Priest: ATT/G: 32.8; YPG: 242; TPG: .85With LJ: ATT/G: 30.7; YPG: 257; TPG: 1.22They threw for more yards and more TDs on less attempts with LJ than with Priest. So I don't really know how you can say their downfield passing was worse with LJ.

 

[jurb26]

If you think Will Shields going down could "cripple" the Chiefs offense, and especially Gonzalez' production, you need to watch more Kansas City games.

How many games have you watched where Shields has gone down exactly?

I've watched every game of his career. But more importantly, I watched every snap he played in 2005 -- and with great disappointment.Your points regarding Trent Green and Willie Roaf were valid ones, hense why I did not mention them.

But not only is Will Shields a guard, he's now merely a "good" guard. He's not the Will Shields of old. Brian Waters is a lot better. Shields struggled last season for much of the year. That's why I called you on that player and that player only.

The Chiefs' offense very may well tank without a few players; the problem, however, is that none of them include Will Shields.

You watched a Pro Bowl Gaurd play last year with "great disappointment?"