Player Spotlight: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Tony Romo Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[ratbast]

The cheapest 4000/30 QB you can buy/pick. His exit value wont be that high in dynasty.

Good "bang for your buck"!

 

[Ghost Rider]

Agreed, ratbast. The perception that Romo is not a really good NFL QB drove down his value last year, and I believe it is doing so again this year. And with QB being a deep pool this year, I think Romo will likely fall a bit in drafts and be gotten for a great value in auctions. It sure helps him that he has a potential beast in Dez Bryant to throw to (look at what throwing to Megaton did for Stafford in 2011, for example).

He seems a lock for 4,500 passing yards and close to 30 TD passes again.

 

[Shutout]

Agree with both the above. Romo is perennially undervalued and it defies logic. A team that can never run and has a top 5 TE from the last 5-6 years and a wr phenom somehow gets tossed in the "meh" pile.

 

[Leonidas]

Add me to the list.

I am targeting him late in every draft this year. I mean, unless I can get Peyton in the 4th round, I'm all about Romo when, at least in mocks (and my one real draft so far), he has been available in the 6th-7th round. That means I can get both RB's and all three WR's before taking a QB, and still get a guy I expect to be 4,500 yards and 30 TD's, give or take.

I see no reason for a dropoff in performance from prior years, and if Dez Bryant does anything close to what a lot of people are hoping for, that has got to be a nice shot in the arm. Plus Witten had his ruptured spleen early last year that really seemed to limit his use/production in the early games.

 

[Wade]

I was a Romo owner last year, and I was stunned when I looked back at the end of the season and saw how good Romo's stats were. What stands out in my mind is that Romo's poor performance early in the season cost me my chance at the playoffs. If he had spread those stats out evenly across all 16 games, I probably would have made the cut ... but the way it shook out, by the time the Cowboys' offense got on track, I was already too many losses in the hole.

Here are Romo's games from last year:

Week 1: 307 yds, 3 td, 1 int (good game)

Week 2: 251 yds, 1 td, 1 int (bad game)

Week 3: 283 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 2 fumbles lost (bad game)

Week 4: 307 yds, 1 td, 5 int (bad game)

Bye

At this point I started trying to trade for any QB I could find, because I was 3 losses down and already struggling to stay relevant in the league.

Week 6: 261 yds, 2 td, 1 int (good game? well, it felt good in comparison)

Week 7: 227 yds, 1 td (bad game)

Week 8: 437 yds, 1 td, 4 int, 1 rushing td (bad game; but again, good by comparison)

Week 9: 321 yds, 1 td (bad game)

Week 10: 209 yds, 2 td (good game? it felt good, but it looks average)

Week 11: 313 yds, 1 td, 1 fumble lost (bad game)

Now I've been all but eliminated from the playoffs, and I think I missed a couple of those "relatively good" games of Romo's because I was swapping in new QBs in a desperate effort to win games. My state of mind is that Romo cost me my shot at the playoffs with his poor play and the Cowboys' lackluster offense.

Of course, over the next six irrelevant weeks, he puts up 1987 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions.,,making his season-end stats look solid.

I'm not sure what's wrong with the Cowboys' offense; their passing game should be dominant week in and week out. But they're inconsistent, and that inconsistency left me out in the cold last year.

Projection: 4250 yards, 29 td, 15 int; 50 rush yards, 1 rush td

Despite what promises to be awesome value, ADP-wise, I think I'll skip drafting Tony Romo this year. He has some great games, and I think he could do great things, but he's kind of like Eli Manning ... he'll have a few weeks every year where he'll disappear and put up single-digit fantasy points. That's a killer when you only have 13 weeks to earn a fantasy playoff spot.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Ended the year hot. Great weapons. The line should be improved. They will be a pass first team with Callahan calling play. Top 5 qb potential.

 

[Bri]

Few QBs have ever struggled so much in the big games and still received so much love from their franchise. Not long ago I saw a reporter used the phrase "Not since Danny White..." and that fits oh so well here too. White was the heir to the legend Roger Staubach. He inherited a team with future hall of famers and a HOF coach with assistants that would become NFL coaches and...he never did too much either.

In the past, I've compared him quite closely to the QB that he often credits as showing him the ropes-Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe was often a dunderhead in big games.

There's something a little weird about Romo in big games. This affects the public perception of him and he clearly falls in rankings every year. It's horribly irrelevant for FF and a big mistake. As others have said, he's an excellent value for FF.

As a later pick, you get a 4k yard QB with some awesome weapons that has the total support of his franchise so is likely never being benched for a backup either. Who cares if he wins for FF? This guy puts up stats.

A QB that threw for 4900 yards last year is going in the 8th round. The previous two complete seasons for him were 4100 and 4400 yards. There's not a whole lot of risk in this pick either.

 

[Tanner9919]

I was a Romo owner last year, and I was stunned when I looked back at the end of the season and saw how good Romo's stats were. What stands out in my mind is that Romo's poor performance early in the season cost me my chance at the playoffs. If he had spread those stats out evenly across all 16 games, I probably would have made the cut ... but the way it shook out, by the time the Cowboys' offense got on track, I was already too many losses in the hole.

Here are Romo's games from last year:

Week 1: 307 yds, 3 td, 1 int (good game)

Week 2: 251 yds, 1 td, 1 int (bad game)

Week 3: 283 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 2 fumbles lost (bad game)

Week 4: 307 yds, 1 td, 5 int (bad game)

Bye

At this point I started trying to trade for any QB I could find, because I was 3 losses down and already struggling to stay relevant in the league.

Week 6: 261 yds, 2 td, 1 int (good game? well, it felt good in comparison)

Week 7: 227 yds, 1 td (bad game)

Week 8: 437 yds, 1 td, 4 int, 1 rushing td (bad game; but again, good by comparison)

Week 9: 321 yds, 1 td (bad game)

Week 10: 209 yds, 2 td (good game? it felt good, but it looks average)

Week 11: 313 yds, 1 td, 1 fumble lost (bad game)

Now I've been all but eliminated from the playoffs, and I think I missed a couple of those "relatively good" games of Romo's because I was swapping in new QBs in a desperate effort to win games. My state of mind is that Romo cost me my shot at the playoffs with his poor play and the Cowboys' lackluster offense.

Of course, over the next six irrelevant weeks, he puts up 1987 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions.,,making his season-end stats look solid.

I'm not sure what's wrong with the Cowboys' offense; their passing game should be dominant week in and week out. But they're inconsistent, and that inconsistency left me out in the cold last year.

Projection: 4250 yards, 29 td, 15 int; 50 rush yards, 1 rush td

Despite what promises to be awesome value, ADP-wise, I think I'll skip drafting Tony Romo this year. He has some great games, and I think he could do great things, but he's kind of like Eli Manning ... he'll have a few weeks every year where he'll disappear and put up single-digit fantasy points. That's a killer when you only have 13 weeks to earn a fantasy playoff spot.

this correctly sums up Tony Romo - those who've had him ( I'm one of them), tell you to search elsewhere for a QB - he's just to inconsistent to be relied upon..you couldn't have made a better comparison than Eli Manning..

no thanks..I'll grab Big Ben WAY before I reach for Romo..the consistency is the issue, not that Tony can't do x,y,z..he's good.just not when you need him to be good..

a lot like A-Rod hitting three-run homers when the Yankees are already up 15-0 but goes 0-4 in games in which you really need him to get a hit..let someone elase have the headaches..

 

[We Tigers]

Wade's evaluation of "bad game" is a little off. There aren't many scoring systems where 300+ yards and a TD should be considered a bad game. Great? No, but definitely decent. There are very few players in the league actually putting up something like 22+ points more often than they aren't, and they aren't going off the board as QB12.

 

[Wade]

I limited myself to "good game" and "bad game". Perhaps I should have also included "average game". But even with that modification I hope the illustration I was making still rings true.

 

[s&m]

Romo is truly one of the most under rated fantasy assets. In our league he has been a top 7 qb or higher 5 of the last 6 seasons. Even last season when others in the thread are saying he was so inconsistant. Romo had 7 games under 20 pts and most of those were 15 or 16 pts. He also had 2 games over 30 pts.

Now some big names like, Rodgers 7 under 20pts amd 4 over 30pts, Griffen 7 under 20pts and 4 over 30pts, Ryan 6 under 20 pts and 3 over 30, P Manning 4 under 20pts and 0 over 30pts,

Newton 7 under 20pts and 4 over 30, Stafford 6 under 30 pts and 2 over 30pts, Luck 7 under 20 pts and 2 over 30pts, Wilson 9 under 20pts and 1 over 30pts, E Manning 10 under 20pts and 2 over 30pts,

and the often mentioned Roethlisberger 10 games under 20pts (3 injured) and 1 game over 30 pts,

All qb's are going to have some up's and down's during the season as witnessed from my leagues archives from last year and the previous years . But other than Romo's injured year he has always been reliable as a scoring fantasy qb. Even the most consistant qb's last year in our league, Brady 3 games under 20pts and 5 over 30pts and Brees 4 games under 20pts and 6 over 30 pts had their up and down games. But of course the cost of getting a Brees or Brady is going to be much higher than Romo. I have Romo pretty much penciled in for 4500 and 30 td's for this season again.

 

[FF Ninja]

He's been a top 10 QB every season that he's started 13 games or more. He's currently going QB12. I'm not sure there's a lot more I need to say. His receiving corps hasn't been that impressive over the years either. If Miles Austin can stay (fully) healthy all season, Romo's stats will be even better. Austin played through an injured hamstring during the second half of the season last year but fell off drastically in production. With Austin and Bryant both at full health they could really keep defenses guessing. 2013 could be the best receiving corps of Romo's career. The main problem for Romo is the offensive line has just been neglected by management. This line isn't nearly as good as it was a few years ago. Luckily Romo is pretty mobile, but it still takes a toll on him.

580 att x 8.0 ypa = 4640 yds 32 TD 15 INT, 40 yds rushing 1 TD

 

[Shutout]

I was a Romo owner last year, and I was stunned when I looked back at the end of the season and saw how good Romo's stats were. What stands out in my mind is that Romo's poor performance early in the season cost me my chance at the playoffs. If he had spread those stats out evenly across all 16 games, I probably would have made the cut ... but the way it shook out, by the time the Cowboys' offense got on track, I was already too many losses in the hole.

Here are Romo's games from last year:

Week 1: 307 yds, 3 td, 1 int (good game)

Week 2: 251 yds, 1 td, 1 int (bad game)

Week 3: 283 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 2 fumbles lost (bad game)

Week 4: 307 yds, 1 td, 5 int (bad game)

Bye

At this point I started trying to trade for any QB I could find, because I was 3 losses down and already struggling to stay relevant in the league.

Week 6: 261 yds, 2 td, 1 int (good game? well, it felt good in comparison)

Week 7: 227 yds, 1 td (bad game)

Week 8: 437 yds, 1 td, 4 int, 1 rushing td (bad game; but again, good by comparison)

Week 9: 321 yds, 1 td (bad game)

Week 10: 209 yds, 2 td (good game? it felt good, but it looks average)

Week 11: 313 yds, 1 td, 1 fumble lost (bad game)

Now I've been all but eliminated from the playoffs, and I think I missed a couple of those "relatively good" games of Romo's because I was swapping in new QBs in a desperate effort to win games. My state of mind is that Romo cost me my shot at the playoffs with his poor play and the Cowboys' lackluster offense.

Of course, over the next six irrelevant weeks, he puts up 1987 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions.,,making his season-end stats look solid.

I'm not sure what's wrong with the Cowboys' offense; their passing game should be dominant week in and week out. But they're inconsistent, and that inconsistency left me out in the cold last year.

Projection: 4250 yards, 29 td, 15 int; 50 rush yards, 1 rush td

Despite what promises to be awesome value, ADP-wise, I think I'll skip drafting Tony Romo this year. He has some great games, and I think he could do great things, but he's kind of like Eli Manning ... he'll have a few weeks every year where he'll disappear and put up single-digit fantasy points. That's a killer when you only have 13 weeks to earn a fantasy playoff spot.

this correctly sums up Tony Romo - those who've had him ( I'm one of them), tell you to search elsewhere for a QB - he's just to inconsistent to be relied upon..you couldn't have made a better comparison than Eli Manning..

no thanks..I'll grab Big Ben WAY before I reach for Romo..the consistency is the issue, not that Tony can't do x,y,z..he's good.just not when you need him to be good..

a lot like A-Rod hitting three-run homers when the Yankees are already up 15-0 but goes 0-4 in games in which you really need him to get a hit..let someone elase have the headaches..

I think you guys are just a bit too close to the source, perhaps the victim of a personal circumstance clouding the big picture. If you owned him and he happened to affect your personal team during a specific year and you are pinning it on him, then I see why you are soured on him but that does not tell the story. romo is a top 10 Qb every year. When you look across his scoring from week to week, he is a type of QB who you can pencile in 16 points at least before he ever hits the field and will have some really terrific games. At the end of the season, you can't argue with the fact that the points are the points and he is a top 7-10 QB.

I think know he is a much better option than you are allowing here. This one feels to me a lot like the people that got upset at Foster or Hernandez for their Week 16 stink bombs last year and blamed their losses on that one poor performance without remembering that all those 20+ days are the reason that they got to that game. Randomness in FF, as absurd as it may seem to people, happens...a lot. And it might happen to you more than you feel is your share. But I guarantee you that many more weeks than not, Romo is going to be helping your team, not hurting it.

 

[Wade]

I agree, my experience is anecdotal, and it is affecting my perception of Tony Romo. But I think my original post was pretty clear about that; told as a recap of my Romo woes last season, and why I wouldn't draft him this year.

I also gave a projection which seems consistent with what other people are predicting, so I don't think I'm undervaluing Romo's overall fantasy potential. Rather, I'm giving my perspective on why I have trouble trusting him. Maybe my experience will help someone else who's looking at Romo or a similar QB and decides to break the tie with my testimony.

 

[ratbast]

So that was last year until week 11. Then he did this:

12: 441yds, 3td, 2int -good

13: 303yds, 3td, 0int -good

14: 268yds, 1td, 1int -bad?

15: 341yds, 2td, 0int -good

16: 416yds, 2td, 0int -good

17: 218yds, 2td, 3int -bad

DMurray was also out 7-12