Player Spotlight: Trent Green (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Trent Green, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Trent Green Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[nygiants56]

LED the NFL in passing yards the final 8 games of 2005, coinciding with the rise of LJ.

HUGE sleeper potential in 2006..Last year was an off year, IMO..

4000-28-12

chiefs defense gets better, allowing the offense to run-n-gun it MORE..

 

[joffer]

the drop in TDs last year was surprising, but like a RB, TDs are more unpredictable. The yards and YPA were consistent. You've got to ding him a little for Herm Edwards in town. Who are they going to run the 5-yard bootleg pass to on 3rd and 8? Did Jerald Sowell come with Herm?

310/510/3900/22/13 passing

30/85/0 rushing

 

[Chadstroma]

I can not shake the feeling that he will not play even half the season this year. He is getting older, has never been an 'ironman', and of course there is that Raider fan in me just looking for something to curse the Chefs.

Without injury look for another solid season in a great situation.

3700 25/10

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

has never been an 'ironman'

QBs with the longest consecutive streaks going of games started:1. Brett Favre

2. Peyton Manning

3. _____ __________

 

[Chadstroma]

has never been an 'ironman'

QBs with the longest consecutive streaks going of games started:1. Brett Favre

2. Peyton Manning

3. _____ __________

Are you serious? I guess the broken leg letting Warner have his shot sticks in your mind.... and then you realize how long ago that was and how he has been healthy since.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

More trivia:

Only QBs to throw for 4,000 yards back-to-back-to-back:

1. Dan Fouts

2. Dan Marino

3. Peyton Manning

4. ____ ______

Most total passing yards over the past three seasons:

1. ____ _____

2. Peyton Manning

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Trent Green actually worries me a bit this year. Before it was set it and forget it with him. 8th or 9th round draft pick with a top 5 fantasy performance. in the bank.

If Trent had the season he had last year and was only 26, I wouldn't think a thing of it. But he'll be 36 heading into the season. We could all see the offensive collapse coming for that old Raiders team a few years ago. Not if but when. I feel the same way about TG this year and I started to feel that way in the pre-season last year.

I don't need to get into the ages of some of the key players there, as they are pretty much well known. Not saying this will happen, but it COULD get real ugly in a hurry in KC.

Trent comes with a little extra risk than a few years ago, which showed itself last year.

3,800 passing yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs.

70 rushing yards, 0 TDs.

 

[GetThePoint]

Just thought everyone would find it curious that even the most conservative projection made so far on this thread would be good enough to rank as the 4th best season all-time for a 36+ year old (behind Rich Gannon, Steve Young and Warren Moon).

Quarterbacks are historically in steep decline by age 36, and despite the yards, it seems to me that Green's decreased touchdown total from last year should be a major warning sign. Add Herm Edwards, who has basically announced that this team will run more, and well, draft with caution.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Just thought everyone would find it curious that even the most conservative projection made so far on this thread would be good enough to rank as the 4th best season all-time for a 36+ year old (behind Rich Gannon, Steve Young and Warren Moon).

Interesting factoid there.Brett Favre was 36 last year and threw for 3800 & 20 which is right in line with my 3800 & 21. I'm sure Green can manage less than 29 INTs. :X

Quarterbacks are historically in steep decline by age 36, and despite the yards, it seems to me that Green's decreased touchdown total from last year should be a major warning sign. Add Herm Edwards, who has basically announced that this team will run more, and well, draft with caution.

KC was 6th in rushing attempts and 17th in passing attempts last year. Not a whole lot of room for improvement in the rushing department.

 

[Bri]

Just thought everyone would find it curious that even the most conservative projection made so far on this thread would be good enough to rank as the 4th best season all-time for a 36+ year old (behind Rich Gannon, Steve Young and Warren Moon).

Quarterbacks are historically in steep decline by age 36, and despite the yards, it seems to me that Green's decreased touchdown total from last year should be a major warning sign. Add Herm Edwards, who has basically announced that this team will run more, and well, draft with caution.

Hey get the point,when's the last time he didn't throw for 4k?

get the point?

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

Trent green and Eddie Kennison are maybe the two most under-appreciated players in the NFL.

And the running game cant get THAt many mnore touches or it would set all kinds of records. What evidence is there that KC will all teh sudden break down? Shields, ROaf and the like still kept KC as a top 5 offense, evenw ith their age and nagging injuries.

And New OC Mike SOlari is an extension of Al Saunders. He already called the running plays and he has said he will give Trent say in the passing game. Trent Green is a poor man's Peyton Manning if he is allowed to be. He has never changed plays at the line, but he could, as he knows this offense better than Solari.

Bottom line, I see Trent with

4,075 Yds

22 TDs

10 INTS

Keep doubting Green, everyone who lives in the midwest who plays in your leagues will thank you for it.

 

[Jason Wood]

Having gone through my third pass through of league wide projections this weekend, I'm now projecting Trent Green outside the top 10.

http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=qb&howrecent=7

Ultimately, while I can't dismiss the streak of 4,000 yard passing seasons, I see too much changing for the worse in 2006 to confidently project Trent Green as a viable QB1 for fantasy purposes.

1) Kennison has been a marvel but he's pretty much reached the upper band of his productivity IMHO

2) The Chiefs have, once again, ignored the gaping hole at WR2/WR3 and are going with the same uninspiring group of WRs they had a season ago

3) Tony Gonzalez, while still among the league's best, appears to be on the downtrend (albeit modest)

4) The aggregate age of the offensive line raises the risk profile; and I believe an injury or two to that line dramatically alters the Chiefs outlook

5) Herm Edwards, whether you love or hate him, will make his mark on the team's offensive philosophy (as he did in New York). Herm's teams were notoriously conservative (a byproduct of coming from the Marty Schottenheimer tree). Had Edwards managed to keep Al Saunders as OC, I wouldn't worry as much, but he's got a first time OC (Mike Solari) at the helm and Edwards will be able to instill his will on a newbie like that.

6) Mike Solari, as gifted an offensive line coach as he may be, is no Al Saunders. Anytime you have a first time play caller it's a risk, but now you're talking about a first timer replacing one of the league's best play callers. Yikes.

7) Larry Johnson, if healthy, is going to be ridden into the ground by Edwards and Company. In Edwards five years at the helm in New York, the Jets ranked 26th, 24th, 24th, 29th and 24th in passing attempts, respectively.

Bottom line = Unless someone like Samie Parker or Cro Thorpe come out of nowhere and play at a near elite level, I don't see Green having the opportunity (read: attempts) to play up to the level of the last few years; yet you'll have to draft him with such expectations.

No thanks...

300 completions
485 attempts
61.9% completion percentage
3,700 yards passing
7.6 yards per attempt
18 TD passes
11 INTs
80 rushing yards
0 rushing TDs
254 fantasy points (FBG scoring)

 

[David Yudkin]

3) Tony Gonzalez, while still among the league's best, appears to be on the downtrend (albeit modest)

I wonder about how much Tony G is in a downtrend. He had 78 receptions last year which were more than he had in 2001 . . . or 2002 . . . or 2003.He also had 905 receiving yards, which were within 12 yards of both his 2001 and 2003 season (and 128 more than in 2002).Yes, he dipped compared to his 2004 numbers, but how often are we to expect 100/1200/7 from a TE?The only place Gonzalez suffered was in the TD department, and that had to do with Larry Johnson going on an out and out TD bender last year once he took over.From Week 9 on, LJ averaged 32 touches a game--or a pace for 512 over a full season. I feel confident that Johnson will not get over 50 touches on the season, and I doubt he keeps up his alarming TD rate for a full season.IMO, the planets aligned the wrong way for Gonzalez last year, and I suspect his TD total will be closer to his 7-10 range. That was really the only thinkg that kept him from being near the top of the TE food chain.

 

[Jason Wood]

3) Tony Gonzalez, while still among the league's best, appears to be on the downtrend (albeit modest)

I wonder about how much Tony G is in a downtrend. He had 78 receptions last year which were more than he had in 2001 . . . or 2002 . . . or 2003.He also had 905 receiving yards, which were within 12 yards of both his 2001 and 2003 season (and 128 more than in 2002).

Yes, he dipped compared to his 2004 numbers, but how often are we to expect 100/1200/7 from a TE?

The only place Gonzalez suffered was in the TD department, and that had to do with Larry Johnson going on an out and out TD bender last year once he took over.

From Week 9 on, LJ averaged 32 touches a game--or a pace for 512 over a full season. I feel confident that Johnson will not get over 50 touches on the season, and I doubt he keeps up his alarming TD rate for a full season.

IMO, the planets aligned the wrong way for Gonzalez last year, and I suspect his TD total will be closer to his 7-10 range. That was really the only thinkg that kept him from being near the top of the TE food chain.

David, you're right in pointing out that Tony G remains among the league's best tight ends, I meant to imply no differently. But in terms of leading indicators, I see a tight end who posted his worst yards per reception average (11.6) in seven years, to go along with a lack of red zone impact. Add to that Mike Solari making the calls instead of Al Saunders, and no way do I call out Trent Green's name as my QB1 in the first third of the draft.

 

[David Yudkin]

JW -

I am not a huge Green fan this year and was mostly speaking to your comments on Gonzalez. I don't think Gonzalez will suffer all that much, but I do not have great hopes for Green when an Edwards-led offense has maxed out at 3,619 passing yards and 25 passing TD.

I see more of a ball control offense than an aerial assault, so maybe Gonzalez keeps a low ypr but with a lot of receptions and a few more TD.

 

[Jason Wood]

JW -

I am not a huge Green fan this year and was mostly speaking to your comments on Gonzalez. I don't think Gonzalez will suffer all that much, but I do not have great hopes for Green when an Edwards-led offense has maxed out at 3,619 passing yards and 25 passing TD.

I see more of a ball control offense than an aerial assault, so maybe Gonzalez keeps a low ypr but with a lot of receptions and a few more TD.

I agree...I project Gonzo with 75 for 870 and 5 TDs this season, so we're not far apart at all.

 

[TS Garp]

Having gone through my third pass through of league wide projections this weekend, I'm now projecting Trent Green outside the top 10.

http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=qb&howrecent=7

Ultimately, while I can't dismiss the streak of 4,000 yard passing seasons, I see too much changing for the worse in 2006 to confidently project Trent Green as a viable QB1 for fantasy purposes.

1) Kennison has been a marvel but he's pretty much reached the upper band of his productivity IMHO

2) The Chiefs have, once again, ignored the gaping hole at WR2/WR3 and are going with the same uninspiring group of WRs they had a season ago

3) Tony Gonzalez, while still among the league's best, appears to be on the downtrend (albeit modest)

4) The aggregate age of the offensive line raises the risk profile; and I believe an injury or two to that line dramatically alters the Chiefs outlook

5) Herm Edwards, whether you love or hate him, will make his mark on the team's offensive philosophy (as he did in New York). Herm's teams were notoriously conservative (a byproduct of coming from the Marty Schottenheimer tree). Had Edwards managed to keep Al Saunders as OC, I wouldn't worry as much, but he's got a first time OC (Mike Solari) at the helm and Edwards will be able to instill his will on a newbie like that.

6) Mike Solari, as gifted an offensive line coach as he may be, is no Al Saunders. Anytime you have a first time play caller it's a risk, but now you're talking about a first timer replacing one of the league's best play callers. Yikes.

7) Larry Johnson, if healthy, is going to be ridden into the ground by Edwards and Company. In Edwards five years at the helm in New York, the Jets ranked 26th, 24th, 24th, 29th and 24th in passing attempts, respectively.

Bottom line = Unless someone like Samie Parker or Cro Thorpe come out of nowhere and play at a near elite level, I don't see Green having the opportunity (read: attempts) to play up to the level of the last few years; yet you'll have to draft him with such expectations.

No thanks...

300 completions
485 attempts
61.9% completion percentage
3,700 yards passing
7.6 yards per attempt
18 TD passes
11 INTs
80 rushing yards
0 rushing TDs
254 fantasy points (FBG scoring)

Excellent points. I don't see Green cratering this season, but I also think he comes with a little more risk this year, and I don't view him as an automatic top 10 QB the way that he has been in the last few seasons. I think it's unlikely that he'll outperform his draft position.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I think I'd still feel really safe with him. Slightly down year in tds last year, but I don't see him coming up on the low end again this year.

3800 passing yards 26 passing tds 13 ints 55 rushing yards 1 rushing td

 

[pretender]

Having gone through my third pass through of league wide projections this weekend, I'm now projecting Trent Green outside the top 10.

http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=qb&howrecent=7

Ultimately, while I can't dismiss the streak of 4,000 yard passing seasons, I see too much changing for the worse in 2006 to confidently project Trent Green as a viable QB1 for fantasy purposes.

1) Kennison has been a marvel but he's pretty much reached the upper band of his productivity IMHO

2) The Chiefs have, once again, ignored the gaping hole at WR2/WR3 and are going with the same uninspiring group of WRs they had a season ago

3) Tony Gonzalez, while still among the league's best, appears to be on the downtrend (albeit modest)

4) The aggregate age of the offensive line raises the risk profile; and I believe an injury or two to that line dramatically alters the Chiefs outlook

5) Herm Edwards, whether you love or hate him, will make his mark on the team's offensive philosophy (as he did in New York). Herm's teams were notoriously conservative (a byproduct of coming from the Marty Schottenheimer tree). Had Edwards managed to keep Al Saunders as OC, I wouldn't worry as much, but he's got a first time OC (Mike Solari) at the helm and Edwards will be able to instill his will on a newbie like that.

6) Mike Solari, as gifted an offensive line coach as he may be, is no Al Saunders. Anytime you have a first time play caller it's a risk, but now you're talking about a first timer replacing one of the league's best play callers. Yikes.

7) Larry Johnson, if healthy, is going to be ridden into the ground by Edwards and Company. In Edwards five years at the helm in New York, the Jets ranked 26th, 24th, 24th, 29th and 24th in passing attempts, respectively.

Bottom line = Unless someone like Samie Parker or Cro Thorpe come out of nowhere and play at a near elite level, I don't see Green having the opportunity (read: attempts) to play up to the level of the last few years; yet you'll have to draft him with such expectations.

No thanks...

300 completions
485 attempts
61.9% completion percentage
3,700 yards passing
7.6 yards per attempt
18 TD passes
11 INTs
80 rushing yards
0 rushing TDs
254 fantasy points (FBG scoring)

Excellent points. I don't see Green cratering this season, but I also think he comes with a little more risk this year, and I don't view him as an automatic top 10 QB the way that he has been in the last few seasons. I think it's unlikely that he'll outperform his draft position.

I agree but doesn't a healthy Kris Wilson also give Green another target out there especially in the redzone?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I just wanted to point out that Green had a ridiculous ratio of yards to TDs last year. IIRC it was the third "worst" based on the parameters I set (maybe something like last 20 years, at least 3500 yards).

 

[The Jacket]

From a reality perspective, Green will be what he has been for most of his career: a solid, if not always spectacular, quarterback. How that parlays to fantasy is the question.

I see him putting in another good year for yardage, although I find it hard to believe he'll hit or surpass 4000 again. The problem is with the touchdowns, or lack thereof. There are two problems standing in his way: (1) he has Larry Johnson in the backfield and the Chiefs' bread and butter is to run the football; it's like the anti-Colts system. Both the RB and QB accumulate yards, but in Kansas City, the RB gets all the touchdowns. In Indianapolis, it's the QB. And, (2) the receivers he'll have to work with, while often underrated among media and fans, are not going to help him out a whole lot. I believe last year was just a down year for Gonzalez and not a sign of things to come, but even if he gives Green 1100 yards and 8-10 TDs - that, along with Kennison's 1000-1100 and 4-6 TDs, isn't going to be enough to propell him to the elite, or even sub-elite, group of fantasy quarterbacks.

Prediction: 480 attempts, 302 completions, 3859 yards, 16 TD, 9 INT.