Player Spotlight: Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers (1 Viewer)

[johnadams]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

 

[Grahamburn]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

If his targets increase significantly he could certainly nullify the advantage the Jimmy Graham owner has, and VD is 3-4 rounds cheaper.

That being said, I have no idea if they're actually going to use him like they did in the playoffs, split him out wide, or put him in the slot.

 

[5Rings]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

I totally disagree.

You are looking at VD's historical role, which would be fine if the team still had pass catching options like Crabtree, Delanie, and Moss.

What you need to look at is how Harbaugh has adjusted the offense each season to take advantage of the talent and skillset on the roster. The offense has not been static.

IMO--Harbaugh will continue to take adapt the offense and highlight his best skill player, VD, in 2013.

 

[MattFancy]

The only thing that worries me about him is that even when Kaep first came on last year, Davis wasn't putting up TE1 numbers. Now his role increased during the playoffs, but I just don't know how good he's going to be. I think he's got a top 5 shot this year, but definitely not going to overtake Graham.

 

[Shutout]

The only thing that worries me about him is that even when Kaep first came on last year, Davis wasn't putting up TE1 numbers. Now his role increased during the playoffs, but I just don't know how good he's going to be. I think he's got a top 5 shot this year, but definitely not going to overtake Graham.

Remember that very first game with Kaep against the Bears (I think) where Davis shredded them on MNF?

What I take from this more than anything is knowing that we KNOW it is possible for this team, as it is constituted right now, to feature Davis in a big, big way and right now they NEED to. So, it depends on how you see the glass. I see it as a situation to call "developing a rapport" with one another and the coaches recognizing what is going to put bread on their table so I'm seeing it as a full glass (because I have seen that they CAN be very effective together if the Niners install that mindset and I have heard nothing except that they are going to use him a lot this year).

 

[MattFancy]

The only thing that worries me about him is that even when Kaep first came on last year, Davis wasn't putting up TE1 numbers. Now his role increased during the playoffs, but I just don't know how good he's going to be. I think he's got a top 5 shot this year, but definitely not going to overtake Graham.

Remember that very first game with Kaep against the Bears (I think) where Davis shredded them on MNF?

What I take from this more than anything is knowing that we KNOW it is possible for this team, as it is constituted right now, to feature Davis in a big, big way and right now they NEED to. So, it depends on how you see the glass. I see it as a situation to call "developing a rapport" with one another and the coaches recognizing what is going to put bread on their table so I'm seeing it as a full glass (because I have seen that they CAN be very effective together if the Niners install that mindset and I have heard nothing except that they are going to use him a lot this year).

Oh don't get me wrong. I reached for Davis in a Dynasty draft with 1.5 PPR, I took him in the 3rd round lol. So I do like him, but I'm still worried about how the 9ers will use him.

 

[JustinHawkins]

I just grabbed him at 6.7 in a PPR redraft league. Felt that was WAY too good of value to pass up. Someone is going to have to take over for Crabtree, and I'm thinking it has to be VD. Boldin is a nice player, but more a possession guy, he's 32, and he's never had elite speed. When they want to go deep, figure its gonna VD time!

 

[thecatch]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

I totally disagree. You are looking at VD's historical role, which would be fine if the team still had pass catching options like Crabtree, Delanie, and Moss.

What you need to look at is how Harbaugh has adjusted the offense each season to take advantage of the talent and skillset on the roster. The offense has not been static.

IMO--Harbaugh will continue to take adapt the offense and highlight his best skill player, VD, in 2013.

The personnel changes are overrated. Moss never did anything last year, and McDonald and Boldin will be reasonable substitutes for Crabtree and Walker.

 

[Grahamburn]

Loved seeing VD split out wide and lining up in the slot quite a bit last night.

 

[Shutout]

I guess it's still gotta be Vernon if anyone. I just don't see any Wr out there playing at a high level beyond the short range. If they are going to be anything except small ballers, they need some speed+hands combo and Vernon is the only one I see.

 

[Goldfinger007]

Personally, I just can't just can't justify using too high of a pick on him. Sure, he has had a great camp and IMO, he's probably the best TE in the league, bar none. All that said, that's the same story as in the past six years or so. I think there's little doubt that he will go off in a game here and there, but if the past rings true, he'll disappear in a few as well. If you look at it from a match up perspective, it kinda makes even more sense this year. If you are a D coordinator, who are you going to double cover? Especially in the red zone. Are you going to allow Davis to roam around in single coverage against a LB or safety? Probably not. I think Boldin may end up getting a lot of red zone looks that a TE would typically get. Then let's not forget that Kaep is more than capable of running a few in himself. I think Davis will be the focus of the defense in the red zone and I'm not sure Kaep will try to force the ball into double coverage if he has so many better options. So, I think on occasion he's going to get his, but I could definitely see a scenario this year where he does a lot of things for the 9'ers offense that won't show up on the stat sheets. Then I look at where I'll probably have to draft him and i just see way more consistent options, especially at WR. Unless he slips, I'm afraid I'll have to pass.

 

[JustinHawkins]

I do worry he'll but criminally under utilized like he always has. But the talent is there, and you would think, this year the opportunity HAS to be there.

 

[5Rings]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

I totally disagree. You are looking at VD's historical role, which would be fine if the team still had pass catching options like Crabtree, Delanie, and Moss.

What you need to look at is how Harbaugh has adjusted the offense each season to take advantage of the talent and skillset on the roster. The offense has not been static.

IMO--Harbaugh will continue to take adapt the offense and highlight his best skill player, VD, in 2013.

The personnel changes are overrated. Moss never did anything last year, and McDonald and Boldin will be reasonable substitutes for Crabtree and Walker.

Do you honestly believe this?

 

[Grahamburn]

Personally, I just can't just can't justify using too high of a pick on him. Sure, he has had a great camp and IMO, he's probably the best TE in the league, bar none. All that said, that's the same story as in the past six years or so. I think there's little doubt that he will go off in a game here and there, but if the past rings true, he'll disappear in a few as well. If you look at it from a match up perspective, it kinda makes even more sense this year. If you are a D coordinator, who are you going to double cover? Especially in the red zone. Are you going to allow Davis to roam around in single coverage against a LB or safety? Probably not. I think Boldin may end up getting a lot of red zone looks that a TE would typically get. Then let's not forget that Kaep is more than capable of running a few in himself. I think Davis will be the focus of the defense in the red zone and I'm not sure Kaep will try to force the ball into double coverage if he has so many better options. So, I think on occasion he's going to get his, but I could definitely see a scenario this year where he does a lot of things for the 9'ers offense that won't show up on the stat sheets. Then I look at where I'll probably have to draft him and i just see way more consistent options, especially at WR. Unless he slips, I'm afraid I'll have to pass.

If you're a coordinator against the 49'ers you have to stop their running game first. The beauty of Vernon Davis is you can't cover him with a corner or a linebacker. The fact that he's lining up all over the formation is positive for his fantasy value. He wasn't used that way very often last year.

 

[tsarc888]

there seems to be this misconception floating around that Vernon Davis has ALWAYS dissapointed. He did catch 13 TD's in 2009.

 

[cstu]

there seems to be this misconception floating around that Vernon Davis has ALWAYS dissapointed. He did catch 13 TD's in 2009.

The problem has always been the expectations due to his freakish talent. He had 3 disappointing years (useless for fantasy) before breaking out with that monster season. He then followed it up with another great season but then was just a good TE1 in 2011 before falling off the map in 2012.

Long story short, despite his talent he's only had 3 successful fantasy seasons in 7 years. He'll probably have a massive season this year but he lacks consistency from year to year.

 

[Shutout]

there seems to be this misconception floating around that Vernon Davis has ALWAYS dissapointed. He did catch 13 TD's in 2009.

Very true. Its funny how a guy can be all-world and slip an inch and people write him off like he's lost it, too old, lost a step, been overused, etc but a other guys can have one great year surrounded by mediocre ones (JSTEW and CJ?K) and people will talk them up year after year as "He's back baby!"

 

[Goldfinger007]

Personally, I just can't just can't justify using too high of a pick on him. Sure, he has had a great camp and IMO, he's probably the best TE in the league, bar none. All that said, that's the same story as in the past six years or so. I think there's little doubt that he will go off in a game here and there, but if the past rings true, he'll disappear in a few as well. If you look at it from a match up perspective, it kinda makes even more sense this year. If you are a D coordinator, who are you going to double cover? Especially in the red zone. Are you going to allow Davis to roam around in single coverage against a LB or safety? Probably not. I think Boldin may end up getting a lot of red zone looks that a TE would typically get. Then let's not forget that Kaep is more than capable of running a few in himself. I think Davis will be the focus of the defense in the red zone and I'm not sure Kaep will try to force the ball into double coverage if he has so many better options. So, I think on occasion he's going to get his, but I could definitely see a scenario this year where he does a lot of things for the 9'ers offense that won't show up on the stat sheets. Then I look at where I'll probably have to draft him and i just see way more consistent options, especially at WR. Unless he slips, I'm afraid I'll have to pass.

If you're a coordinator against the 49'ers you have to stop their running game first. The beauty of Vernon Davis is you can't cover him with a corner or a linebacker. The fact that he's lining up all over the formation is positive for his fantasy value. He wasn't used that way very often last year.

Absolutely they have to stop the run and a big part of that is having Davis on the end. He's one of, if not the best blocking TE's in the game. If they do start moving him around and lining him up in the slot or outside, it would definitely increase his potential as a receiver, but that's the if. They went to super bowl last year keeping him inside and pounding the ball. Will they really be committed to breaking that formula. I don't know, you tell me. Every year he tears up training camp and all the buzz you hear is about how they are going to try to use him more as a receiver. Then the regular season starts and he disappears from games. Don't get me wrong, I love watching the guy play, but unless they change how they've been using him, he's going to disappoint where he'll be drafted.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I just remember last season when there were two games where Davis had zero catches and zero fantasy points. And then there was the 4 game stretch where he only had a single catch per game (all in the fantasy playoffs week 14-17). Since that will probably happen again in this offense, I won't be drafting him at his current ADP. Harbaugh is far too conservative to make Davis a top 5 TE. No Crabtree just means they will run more.

Weeks 12-17 last year were absolutely brutal for Davis owners. 6 catches for 61yds in 6 games. 666! And zero TDs. No thanks.

 

[Gargoylez]

I would never draft Davis like I did last year. Took him as the 5th TE off the board. He kicked butt for a few weeks and then disappeared... literally, scoring like 10 points in 4 weeks... 'aint nobody got time for that.

 

[Mene]

I think that is where a lot of the hate comes from, last year. If you remember, he was immature early in his career, and he and Singletary had serious issues. Vernon grew up, and after that he put up 1 outstanding season, and 2 good ones. Last year was a complete stinker, for sure, but I'm not drafting what he did last year. 3 of the last 4 years he has been a good TE to own. Now that there seems to be a void in the passing game, and the he spent the offseason filling it, I'm buying in. I'm fine paying TE 5-7 price for him. After Graham, Gronk, Witten... there aren't any TE's I would say are a sure bet to finish TE4, and it's not hard to tell a viable story that lands Davis there.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I think that is where a lot of the hate comes from, last year. If you remember, he was immature early in his career, and he and Singletary had serious issues. Vernon grew up, and after that he put up 1 outstanding season, and 2 good ones. Last year was a complete stinker, for sure, but I'm not drafting what he did last year. 3 of the last 4 years he has been a good TE to own. Now that there seems to be a void in the passing game, and the he spent the offseason filling it, I'm buying in. I'm fine paying TE 5-7 price for him. After Graham, Gronk, Witten... there aren't any TE's I would say are a sure bet to finish TE4, and it's not hard to tell a viable story that lands Davis there.

The problem is that he plays in one of the most run heavy offenses in the NFL. In the 2011 and 2012 regular seasons under Harbaugh, the 49ers were #31 in pass attempts both years and #3 and #4 in rushing attempts. That ratio really needs to improve in 2013 for Davis to have any shot at finishing top 5 TE. They simply don't pass the ball enough in the regular season.

 

[Mene]

I think that is where a lot of the hate comes from, last year. If you remember, he was immature early in his career, and he and Singletary had serious issues. Vernon grew up, and after that he put up 1 outstanding season, and 2 good ones. Last year was a complete stinker, for sure, but I'm not drafting what he did last year. 3 of the last 4 years he has been a good TE to own. Now that there seems to be a void in the passing game, and the he spent the offseason filling it, I'm buying in. I'm fine paying TE 5-7 price for him. After Graham, Gronk, Witten... there aren't any TE's I would say are a sure bet to finish TE4, and it's not hard to tell a viable story that lands Davis there.

The problem is that he plays in one of the most run heavy offenses in the NFL. In the 2011 and 2012 regular seasons under Harbaugh, the 49ers were #31 in pass attempts both years and #3 and #4 in rushing attempts. That ratio really needs to improve in 2013 for Davis to have any shot at finishing top 5 TE. They simply don't pass the ball enough in the regular season.

That is certainly a valid concern, but it really doesn't take a high powered pass offense to produce a viable fantasy TE/WR. They could throw the ball 450 times, and Davis could still come in with a 70/900/8 year, which would get him in that top 6. There just isn't anything intriguing otherwise on that team, as far as receiving options.

 

[thecatch]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

I totally disagree. You are looking at VD's historical role, which would be fine if the team still had pass catching options like Crabtree, Delanie, and Moss.

What you need to look at is how Harbaugh has adjusted the offense each season to take advantage of the talent and skillset on the roster. The offense has not been static.

IMO--Harbaugh will continue to take adapt the offense and highlight his best skill player, VD, in 2013.

The personnel changes are overrated. Moss never did anything last year, and McDonald and Boldin will be reasonable substitutes for Crabtree and Walker.

Do you honestly believe this?

Yup. Boldin looks great and should get you 75% of what Crabtree did. McDonald has more receiving talent than Walker. Citing the absence of Moss and Walker, who didnt contribute much at all in the passing game last year, as a reason for VD to blow up doesn't make sense.

 

[Grahamburn]

I just remember last season when there were two games where Davis had zero catches and zero fantasy points. And then there was the 4 game stretch where he only had a single catch per game (all in the fantasy playoffs week 14-17). Since that will probably happen again in this offense, I won't be drafting him at his current ADP. Harbaugh is far too conservative to make Davis a top 5 TE. No Crabtree just means they will run more.

Weeks 12-17 last year were absolutely brutal for Davis owners. 6 catches for 61yds in 6 games. 666! And zero TDs. No thanks.

I would never draft Davis like I did last year. Took him as the 5th TE off the board. He kicked butt for a few weeks and then disappeared... literally, scoring like 10 points in 4 weeks... 'aint nobody got time for that.

So we should expect Davis to be used exactly the same as he was last season? You guys must be good at this magic football stuff.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I just remember last season when there were two games where Davis had zero catches and zero fantasy points. And then there was the 4 game stretch where he only had a single catch per game (all in the fantasy playoffs week 14-17). Since that will probably happen again in this offense, I won't be drafting him at his current ADP. Harbaugh is far too conservative to make Davis a top 5 TE. No Crabtree just means they will run more.

Weeks 12-17 last year were absolutely brutal for Davis owners. 6 catches for 61yds in 6 games. 666! And zero TDs. No thanks.

I would never draft Davis like I did last year. Took him as the 5th TE off the board. He kicked butt for a few weeks and then disappeared... literally, scoring like 10 points in 4 weeks... 'aint nobody got time for that.

So we should expect Davis to be used exactly the same as he was last season? You guys must be good at this magic football stuff.

No of course Davis won't be used exactly the same. But in the two seasons under Harbaugh, the team was 31st in pass attempts and was one play away from making it to the Superbowl both years. And they play in a division where every team is above average defensively. Do you really think he is going to change the formula much now that they have even less talent at WR? I think it's reasonable to assume that they are going to continue to run the #### out of the football (including Kaep runs) and Davis is going to continue to block a ton.

Davis can't reach 70+ receptions if he's only targeted 60 times like he was in 2012. I do think his targets may reach 80 this year, but that's still only going to result in ~50 catches using his career catch rate. ALL of the TEs that finished top 10 in PPR scoring in 2012 had at least 94 targets (excluding Gronk due to injury but he would have finished above 94 as well). In 2011, Davis finished as TE8 on 95 targets. I honestly think that is his ceiling in this offense despite his undeniable talent. Yet he is being drafted in his own tier at TE5.

In PPR scoring, I would much rather have guys like Finley, Pettigrew or Olson at their ADP because I am 99.9% certain they will all get more targets than Davis and they all play in better passing offenses.

In TD heavy scoring, I can't blame anyone for rolling the dice on Davis.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I just remember last season when there were two games where Davis had zero catches and zero fantasy points. And then there was the 4 game stretch where he only had a single catch per game (all in the fantasy playoffs week 14-17). Since that will probably happen again in this offense, I won't be drafting him at his current ADP. Harbaugh is far too conservative to make Davis a top 5 TE. No Crabtree just means they will run more.

Weeks 12-17 last year were absolutely brutal for Davis owners. 6 catches for 61yds in 6 games. 666! And zero TDs. No thanks.

I would never draft Davis like I did last year. Took him as the 5th TE off the board. He kicked butt for a few weeks and then disappeared... literally, scoring like 10 points in 4 weeks... 'aint nobody got time for that.

So we should expect Davis to be used exactly the same as he was last season? You guys must be good at this magic football stuff.

No of course Davis won't be used exactly the same. But in the two seasons under Harbaugh, the team was 31st in pass attempts and was one play away from making it to the Superbowl both years. And they play in a division where every team is above average defensively. Do you really think he is going to change the formula much now that they have even less talent at WR? I think it's reasonable to assume that they are going to continue to run the #### out of the football (including Kaep runs) and Davis is going to continue to block a ton.

Davis can't reach 70+ receptions if he's only targeted 60 times like he was in 2012. I do think his targets may reach 80 this year, but that's still only going to result in ~50 catches using his career catch rate. ALL of the TEs that finished top 10 in PPR scoring in 2012 had at least 94 targets (excluding Gronk due to injury but he would have finished above 94 as well). In 2011, Davis finished as TE8 on 95 targets. I honestly think that is his ceiling in this offense despite his undeniable talent. Yet he is being drafted in his own tier at TE5.

In PPR scoring, I would much rather have guys like Finley, Pettigrew or Olson at their ADP because I am 99.9% certain they will all get more targets than Davis and they all play in better passing offenses.

In TD heavy scoring, I can't blame anyone for rolling the dice on Davis.

I think he will change some because he has a weapon at QB, where as most of the time before he had a game manager at QB

And the division title will mean not having to play in seattle in the playoffs.

 

[drummer]

I just remember last season when there were two games where Davis had zero catches and zero fantasy points. And then there was the 4 game stretch where he only had a single catch per game (all in the fantasy playoffs week 14-17). Since that will probably happen again in this offense, I won't be drafting him at his current ADP. Harbaugh is far too conservative to make Davis a top 5 TE. No Crabtree just means they will run more.

Weeks 12-17 last year were absolutely brutal for Davis owners. 6 catches for 61yds in 6 games. 666! And zero TDs. No thanks.

I would never draft Davis like I did last year. Took him as the 5th TE off the board. He kicked butt for a few weeks and then disappeared... literally, scoring like 10 points in 4 weeks... 'aint nobody got time for that.

So we should expect Davis to be used exactly the same as he was last season? You guys must be good at this magic football stuff.

No of course Davis won't be used exactly the same. But in the two seasons under Harbaugh, the team was 31st in pass attempts and was one play away from making it to the Superbowl both years. And they play in a division where every team is above average defensively. Do you really think he is going to change the formula much now that they have even less talent at WR? I think it's reasonable to assume that they are going to continue to run the #### out of the football (including Kaep runs) and Davis is going to continue to block a ton.

Davis can't reach 70+ receptions if he's only targeted 60 times like he was in 2012. I do think his targets may reach 80 this year, but that's still only going to result in ~50 catches using his career catch rate. ALL of the TEs that finished top 10 in PPR scoring in 2012 had at least 94 targets (excluding Gronk due to injury but he would have finished above 94 as well). In 2011, Davis finished as TE8 on 95 targets. I honestly think that is his ceiling in this offense despite his undeniable talent. Yet he is being drafted in his own tier at TE5.

In PPR scoring, I would much rather have guys like Finley, Pettigrew or Olson at their ADP because I am 99.9% certain they will all get more targets than Davis and they all play in better passing offenses.

In TD heavy scoring, I can't blame anyone for rolling the dice on Davis.

I think he will change some because he has a weapon at QB, where as most of the time before he had a game manager at QB

And the division title will mean not having to play in seattle in the playoffs.

He really had only one and a half season with a game manager. He posted better numbers with a lesser defense and Jimmy Raye's bailout offense, which was mostly due to the 49ers playing from behind back then.

 

[chinawildman]

One thing I noticed with Davis in the 3rd preseason game is that he appears to be lining up all over the field. On his 2 catches in the 3rd preseason game, he was lined up in the backfield as an H back and on the other as a slot receiver. In most games I've watched, Davis was always either split wide on the outside or hand in the dirt as an inline tight end. I'm very eager to see how the coaching staff use him this year with crabtree out. He is far and away their most dangerous weapon on offense and it would be criminal if he didn't absorb a significant amount of crabtree's targets. TDs are hard to predict but I'm thinking he tops 1000yds easily.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Davis is one of the hardest players for me to evaluate. This is the perfect storm for a successful season. Davis has all the speed and talent in the world, and the team really needs him this year. But how many times can we draft Davis high only to have him disappear? A mediocre season seems nearly impossible. Davis' ADP is fairly high, so anything other than a top five finish would be viewed as a failure.

75 catches for 850 yards and 6 TDs.

 

[drummer]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

 

[Grahamburn]

I just remember last season when there were two games where Davis had zero catches and zero fantasy points. And then there was the 4 game stretch where he only had a single catch per game (all in the fantasy playoffs week 14-17). Since that will probably happen again in this offense, I won't be drafting him at his current ADP. Harbaugh is far too conservative to make Davis a top 5 TE. No Crabtree just means they will run more.

Weeks 12-17 last year were absolutely brutal for Davis owners. 6 catches for 61yds in 6 games. 666! And zero TDs. No thanks.

I would never draft Davis like I did last year. Took him as the 5th TE off the board. He kicked butt for a few weeks and then disappeared... literally, scoring like 10 points in 4 weeks... 'aint nobody got time for that.

So we should expect Davis to be used exactly the same as he was last season? You guys must be good at this magic football stuff.

No of course Davis won't be used exactly the same. But in the two seasons under Harbaugh, the team was 31st in pass attempts and was one play away from making it to the Superbowl both years. And they play in a division where every team is above average defensively. Do you really think he is going to change the formula much now that they have even less talent at WR? I think it's reasonable to assume that they are going to continue to run the #### out of the football (including Kaep runs) and Davis is going to continue to block a ton.

Davis can't reach 70+ receptions if he's only targeted 60 times like he was in 2012. I do think his targets may reach 80 this year, but that's still only going to result in ~50 catches using his career catch rate. ALL of the TEs that finished top 10 in PPR scoring in 2012 had at least 94 targets (excluding Gronk due to injury but he would have finished above 94 as well). In 2011, Davis finished as TE8 on 95 targets. I honestly think that is his ceiling in this offense despite his undeniable talent. Yet he is being drafted in his own tier at TE5.

Is Harbaugh really that conservative or is he just a smart football coach? It's possible Alex Smith and an inexperienced Kaepernick made it necessary to call a slew of running plays. Granted, it becomes much easier to do that when you also have a great defense and powerful running game.

That being said, this is the NFL, and no team can hide their QB. Any defensive coordinator can game-plan to stop a power running game if they want to.

I don't agree with your assessment of Crabtree either. They'll just run more? It doesn't work that way. 126 targets, 85 receptions, 1,105 yards, and 9 TDs need to be distributed somewhere in the 49ers passing game.

With Kaepernick's development as a passer, his blossoming rapport with Davis in the postseason/training camp, and what seems to be an increase in route/alignment duties for VD, I see a lot of those targets going to the TE position.

 

[rickyg]

I just remember last season when there were two games where Davis had zero catches and zero fantasy points. And then there was the 4 game stretch where he only had a single catch per game (all in the fantasy playoffs week 14-17). Since that will probably happen again in this offense, I won't be drafting him at his current ADP. Harbaugh is far too conservative to make Davis a top 5 TE. No Crabtree just means they will run more.

Weeks 12-17 last year were absolutely brutal for Davis owners. 6 catches for 61yds in 6 games. 666! And zero TDs. No thanks.

I would never draft Davis like I did last year. Took him as the 5th TE off the board. He kicked butt for a few weeks and then disappeared... literally, scoring like 10 points in 4 weeks... 'aint nobody got time for that.

So we should expect Davis to be used exactly the same as he was last season? You guys must be good at this magic football stuff.

No of course Davis won't be used exactly the same. But in the two seasons under Harbaugh, the team was 31st in pass attempts and was one play away from making it to the Superbowl both years. And they play in a division where every team is above average defensively. Do you really think he is going to change the formula much now that they have even less talent at WR? I think it's reasonable to assume that they are going to continue to run the #### out of the football (including Kaep runs) and Davis is going to continue to block a ton.Davis can't reach 70+ receptions if he's only targeted 60 times like he was in 2012. I do think his targets may reach 80 this year, but that's still only going to result in ~50 catches using his career catch rate. ALL of the TEs that finished top 10 in PPR scoring in 2012 had at least 94 targets (excluding Gronk due to injury but he would have finished above 94 as well). In 2011, Davis finished as TE8 on 95 targets. I honestly think that is his ceiling in this offense despite his undeniable talent. Yet he is being drafted in his own tier at TE5.

Is Harbaugh really that conservative or is he just a smart football coach? It's possible Alex Smith and an inexperienced Kaepernick made it necessary to call a slew of running plays. Granted, it becomes much easier to do that when you also have a great defense and powerful running game.

That being said, this is the NFL, and no team can hide their QB. Any defensive coordinator can game-plan to stop a power running game if they want to.

I don't agree with your assessment of Crabtree either. They'll just run more? It doesn't work that way. 126 targets, 85 receptions, 1,105 yards, and 9 TDs need to be distributed somewhere in the 49ers passing game.

With Kaepernick's development as a passer, his blossoming rapport with Davis in the postseason/training camp, and what seems to be an increase in route/alignment duties for VD, I see a lot of those targets going to the TE position.

Agree with this assessment. New year, different circumstances, great player. Happy to have drafted him in the 8th round as my te1.

If I'm wrong and he sucks again ill just play TE roulette in the waiver wire and scrape out 6-9 pts per week playing matchups.

But I really do think this will be an up year for Davis.

 

[chinawildman]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

 

[meyerj31]

I'm on the Davis bandwagon this year. Boldin must have sacrificed a virgin last year to get his 20-year old legs back for a few weeks during the playoffs, but that isn't going to continue. He's still 32 and very much in the decline phase. Boldin will be ineffective and Davis will soak up targets this year.

77 / 1000 / 10

... with upside beyond even that.

 

[thecatch]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

 

[Grahamburn]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

I watched every snap of Davis' in this most recent preseason game. He was lining up everywhere. Slot, wide, as the trail receiver in bunch sets, and in tight. I don't know about the "working with WRs" myth, but if he lines up like that this year he'll have a good fantasy season.

The writing on the wall tells me they plan to use him much more often as a receiver.

 

[thecatch]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

I watched every snap of Davis' in this most recent preseason game. He was lining up everywhere. Slot, wide, as the trail receiver in bunch sets, and in tight. I don't know about the "working with WRs" myth, but if he lines up like that this year he'll have a good fantasy season.

The writing on the wall tells me they plan to use him much more often as a receiver.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nfcwest&id=105162&src=desktop

It's not like he has never lined up out wide before. And the media hasn't seen him working at WR more than usual. Now, this could certainly be a wrinkle that SF is going to unveil this year, but with Walker gone and McDonald representing a big blocking downgrade at the TE2 spot, I see Davis working from the TE spot with the same frequency he always has (though he may be targeted more from there).

 

[chinawildman]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

I'm fully aware that Maiocco didn't see him practice at wide receiver, but this is coming from the horse's mouth.

“I’m willing to step up and do whatever they ask me to do,” Davis said, via Jimmy Durkin of the San Jose Mercury News. “They’ve been having me work with the wide receivers, line up with the wide receivers, pretty much all over the place. It not only helps me at the wide receiver position, it helps me at the tight end position because my feet can get quicker, my route running is better. I get to play around with the routes and figure out how I want to run them.”

 

[thecatch]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

I'm fully aware that Maiocco didn't see him practice at wide receiver, but this is coming from the horse's mouth.



Im willing to step up and do whatever they

ask me to do, Davis said, via Jimmy Durkin of the

San Jose Mercury News. Theyve been having me work with the wide receivers, line up with the wide receivers, pretty much all over the place. It not only helps me at the wide receiver position, it helps me at the tight end position because my feet can get quicker, my route running is better. I get to play around with the routes and figure out how I want to run them.

I think what he's actually been doing in practice is much more important than what he's been saying. And again, it doesn't make tactical sense for SF to telegraph their run/pass intention by splitting him out wide a high percentage of the time, when he can be perfectly effective from his normal spot.

 

[chinawildman]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

I'm fully aware that Maiocco didn't see him practice at wide receiver, but this is coming from the horse's mouth.

Im willing to step up and do whatever they

ask me to do, Davis said, via Jimmy Durkin of the

San Jose Mercury News. Theyve been having me work with the wide receivers, line up with the wide receivers, pretty much all over the place. It not only helps me at the wide receiver position, it helps me at the tight end position because my feet can get quicker, my route running is better. I get to play around with the routes and figure out how I want to run them.

I think what he's actually been doing in practice is much more important than what he's been saying. And again, it doesn't make tactical sense for SF to telegraph their run/pass intention by splitting him out wide a high percentage of the time, when he can be perfectly effective from his normal spot.

I think what he's actually been doing in practice is much more important than what he did in the one practice open to the media, especially considering Harbaugh's close to the vest approach to everything. In which case, what Davis says he's been doing is probably more relevant than what Maiocco saw him do in an open to media practice.

I don't understand why people think the niners will just fall back on the run because crabtree is out... The 2 most talented players the 49ers have on offense right now are Kap and VD, yet the coaches will just make Kap hand the ball off and keep VD in to block? Makes no sense.

 

[thecatch]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

I'm fully aware that Maiocco didn't see him practice at wide receiver, but this is coming from the horse's mouth.

Im willing to step up and do whatever they ask me to do

, Davis said, via Jimmy Durkin of the San Jose Mercury News

. Theyve been having me work with the wide receivers, line up with the wide receivers, pretty much all over the place. It not only helps me at the wide receiver position, it helps me at the tight end position because my feet can get quicker, my route running is better. I get to play around with the routes and figure out how I want to run them.

I think what he's actually been doing in practice is much more important than what he's been saying. And again, it doesn't make tactical sense for SF to telegraph their run/pass intention by splitting him out wide a high percentage of the time, when he can be perfectly effective from his normal spot.

I think what he's actually been doing in practice is much more important than what he did in the one practice open to the media, especially considering Harbaugh's close to the vest approach to everything. In which case, what Davis says he's been doing is probably more relevant than what Maiocco saw him do in an open to media practice.

I don't understand why people think the niners will just fall back on the run because crabtree is out... The 2 most talented players the 49ers have on offense right now are Kap and VD, yet the coaches will just make Kap hand the ball off and keep VD in to block? Makes no sense.

Do Davis just openly blabbed about Harbaugh's secret plans for him this year? Maybe, but I'm skeptical (also the beat reporters saw way more than 1 practice).

You are also assuming that Davis can't get more targets while still lining up at TE. I don't buy that either.

 

[chinawildman]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

The 49ers beat writers have debunked the myth that VD was spending a lot of time practicing with WRs in camp. Maiocco in particular.

I'm fully aware that Maiocco didn't see him practice at wide receiver, but this is coming from the horse's mouth.

Im willing to step up and do whatever they ask me to do

, Davis said, via Jimmy Durkin of the San Jose Mercury News

. Theyve been having me work with the wide receivers, line up with the wide receivers, pretty much all over the place. It not only helps me at the wide receiver position, it helps me at the tight end position because my feet can get quicker, my route running is better. I get to play around with the routes and figure out how I want to run them.

I think what he's actually been doing in practice is much more important than what he's been saying. And again, it doesn't make tactical sense for SF to telegraph their run/pass intention by splitting him out wide a high percentage of the time, when he can be perfectly effective from his normal spot.

I think what he's actually been doing in practice is much more important than what he did in the one practice open to the media, especially considering Harbaugh's close to the vest approach to everything. In which case, what Davis says he's been doing is probably more relevant than what Maiocco saw him do in an open to media practice.

I don't understand why people think the niners will just fall back on the run because crabtree is out... The 2 most talented players the 49ers have on offense right now are Kap and VD, yet the coaches will just make Kap hand the ball off and keep VD in to block? Makes no sense.

Do Davis just openly blabbed about Harbaugh's secret plans for him this year? Maybe, but I'm skeptical (also the beat reporters saw way more than 1 practice).

You are also assuming that Davis can't get more targets while still lining up at TE. I don't buy that either.

Not assuming that at all. I'm pointing out the fact that he has been given added responsibilities of learning WR route trees and my guess is that it will allow the coaches flexibility in having Davis motion into the role of a WR in certain formations and/or packages. Whether it's being done so that he'll become a decoy or with the intention of him being the primary receiver on these routes is to be determined.

 

[thecatch]

Not assuming that at all. I'm pointing out the fact that he has been given added responsibilities of learning WR route trees and my guess is that it will allow the coaches flexibility in having Davis motion into the role of a WR in certain formations and/or packages. Whether it's being done so that he'll become a decoy or with the intention of him being the primary receiver on these routes is to be determined.

We'll see to what extent that is actually true and/or implemented (I still fail to see how lining him up out wide helps the offense). The Vernon Davis spotlight thread is year after year filled with guys saying that the Niners' personnel or scheme changes are going to allow Davis to blow up from a fantasy perspective, and it just hasn't happened consistently. I think he is sliding in drafts farther than he should because people are underrating him based on that stretch of games where he had no catches last year, but I'm not expecting 1000 yards either.

 

[5Rings]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

I totally disagree. You are looking at VD's historical role, which would be fine if the team still had pass catching options like Crabtree, Delanie, and Moss.

What you need to look at is how Harbaugh has adjusted the offense each season to take advantage of the talent and skillset on the roster. The offense has not been static.

IMO--Harbaugh will continue to take adapt the offense and highlight his best skill player, VD, in 2013.

The personnel changes are overrated. Moss never did anything last year, and McDonald and Boldin will be reasonable substitutes for Crabtree and Walker.

Do you honestly believe this?

Yup. Boldin looks great and should get you 75% of what Crabtree did. McDonald has more receiving talent than Walker. Citing the absence of Moss and Walker, who didnt contribute much at all in the passing game last year, as a reason for VD to blow up doesn't make sense.

I'm not sure what industry besides hand grenades a reasonable substitute = 75%. I think its better just to disagree...and hope he blows up.

 

[drummer]

Just because Davis lines up @ X, Y, or Z doesn't mean he is going to be the primary target. The threat of he lining up anywhere could be because it opens up the passing offense more for other targets. Davis has been used more as a decoy than I can count.

 

[Warrior]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

You mean the dryspell that corresponded directly with Kaep taking over? Yeah, that's definitely NOT a good sign.

 

[thecatch]

Are we still feeling giddy about Vernon? He seems like the one guy who could challenge Jimmy Graham for TE1 status if the speculation on his usage is accurate. He could be the centerpiece of a dominant fantasy roster if he pans out this season. All he needs is the targets.

I'd like to see him actually lining up at WR or in the slot this week.

He's not overtaking Graham. First, the offensive philisophy for SF doesn't suit a top TE. They don't focus on the pass enough, don't run a large number of plays, and have a dynamite defense. Secondly, and this is for everyone who thinks he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is a beast as a blocker. That means that he's not out on every pattern and is going to have a few more dingers than Graham/ Personally, I think Davis is still overvalued in FF, but often underrated as a pure TE as his receiving stats aren't showy, but his value to the team is tremendous. He'll have a few monster games that will make his final stat line palatable, but he's not going to challenge Graham/Gronk as the top TE.

I totally disagree. You are looking at VD's historical role, which would be fine if the team still had pass catching options like Crabtree, Delanie, and Moss.

What you need to look at is how Harbaugh has adjusted the offense each season to take advantage of the talent and skillset on the roster. The offense has not been static.

IMO--Harbaugh will continue to take adapt the offense and highlight his best skill player, VD, in 2013.

The personnel changes are overrated. Moss never did anything last year, and McDonald and Boldin will be reasonable substitutes for Crabtree and Walker.

Do you honestly believe this?

Yup. Boldin looks great and should get you 75% of what Crabtree did. McDonald has more receiving talent than Walker. Citing the absence of Moss and Walker, who didnt contribute much at all in the passing game last year, as a reason for VD to blow up doesn't make sense.

I'm not sure what industry besides hand grenades a reasonable substitute = 75%. I think its better just to disagree...and hope he blows up.

So there's an extra ~250 yards to spread around and VD gets ALL of them. He's still not putting up the numbers some of you guys are predicting. I do hope he goes nuts though.

 

[drummer]

If Davis sniffs 1000 yards this season, it's because the offense will be playing from behind.

Curious why you say that. Davis was on pace for 865 yds last season before his dryspell (and likewise crabtree's emergence) starting week 12, and he's not learning wide receiver routes so he can block...

I say this because the seasons where he did get close to 1000 yards was because the 49ers were behind big in a lot of games, and they faced a lot of prevent defenses and softer coverage. The 49ers with a better passing attack and overall offensive philosophy under Harbaugh is going to spread the ball around more, and if Davis is facing tight coverage, the ball is going to go to another target. If Kaep can successfully connect in tighter windows when targeting Davis - which I think goes against their philosophy of lesser turnovers created by forcing the ball - it still might not translate into a 1000 yard season since they should have other options as targets and plays checked at the line. Now if there was another true stud WR out there with a solid #2, then yeah, I could see Davis maxing out his best season.

It's either having a high octane offense that even with a comfortable lead is still gonna pour the points via the air, or they having to go to the air because they are behind and need to catch up. With the running game and defense being the true strength, I still think they will play with a lead chewing clock.

 

[chinawildman]

Sorry I don't buy the idea that the niners are just going to ground and pound just because crabtree isn't around. Count me in the minority that considers Harbaugh's adoption of a heavy ground game a necessity due to the limitations of Smith as a game manager. I feel like they're going to open things up this year and keep the ball in the hands of Kaepernick. Let's not forget that tight ends were featured HEAVILY in Harbaugh's offense at Stanford when he had an elite passing talent in Andrew Luck. But of course until the season begins, all of this is conjecture.

And to address WHY Davis lining up as a WR matters... it means he is now a deep option on play action/read option passes, of which the niners run alot of. He rarely ran routes on play action passes when lined up as an inline TE.