Player Spotlight: Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Victor Cruz Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

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• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[pghrob]

Bump

 

[Will Grant]

Nicks and Cruz have contract problems that don't seem to be going away. Will that impact their season performance? Does it scare you off from them? What do you guys think?

 

[cstu]

Nicks and Cruz have contract problems that don't seem to be going away. Will that impact their season performance? Does it scare you off from them? What do you guys think?

If they want to get paid they'll perform as usual. I don't think this is nearly as bad as what happened to Wallace so I'm not dropping them due to the contract issues...yet.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Nicks and Cruz have contract problems that don't seem to be going away. Will that impact their season performance? Does it scare you off from them? What do you guys think?

Nicks is going to be a good soldier this yr because he has to; Cruz seems to have (or had) a 8 mil a yr offer but wants WR1 money.

That being said, if this thing drags on to sept I'm sure how I value Cruz as I worry that players that don't train at TC perform less thn to their abilities. If that happens I see Nicks having a great yr if he stays healthy.

 

[Khy]

Well:

Victor Cruz is expected to sign his $2.879 million restricted free agent tender Friday.
The Giants could have rescinded Cruz's one-year offer to the veteran's minimum of $630,000 on Monday had he not signed, but that was never considered likely to happen. Cruz skipped mandatory workouts while holding out for a new contract and the sides will continue extension talks before training camp starts. Cruz's agent, Tom Condon, is believed to be seeking at least $8 million annually on his next contract. USA Today's Mike Garafolo reports that the Giants "aren't any closer" on a long-term deal.

So this is good news if anything, he isn't getting his contract and will be around for the remainder of camp. I didn't expect him to hold out anyway but at least this is a good sign he'll be at TC. Which means if he wants this big contract he will probably do everything in his power to try and exceed his 2011 season. I'd say this is a bump for him. That said I'm a little bit lower on him because I think Rueben Randle is going to emerge in a big way this season and take a lot more receptions than the WR3 in NY typically demands. There's evidence to support this from how much news has been coming from the coaches at mini camp and OTAs. They are loving everything the kid is doing right now. If I'm guessing at Cruz's statline I'll go with:

75 Receptions, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs

 

[KellysHeroes]

Well:

Victor Cruz is expected to sign his $2.879 million restricted free agent tender Friday.
The Giants could have rescinded Cruz's one-year offer to the veteran's minimum of $630,000 on Monday had he not signed, but that was never considered likely to happen. Cruz skipped mandatory workouts while holding out for a new contract and the sides will continue extension talks before training camp starts. Cruz's agent, Tom Condon, is believed to be seeking at least $8 million annually on his next contract. USA Today's Mike Garafolo reports that the Giants "aren't any closer" on a long-term deal.

So this is good news if anything, he isn't getting his contract and will be around for the remainder of camp. I didn't expect him to hold out anyway but at least this is a good sign he'll be at TC. Which means if he wants this big contract he will probably do everything in his power to try and exceed his 2011 season. I'd say this is a bump for him. That said I'm a little bit lower on him because I think Rueben Randle is going to emerge in a big way this season and take a lot more receptions than the WR3 in NY typically demands. There's evidence to support this from how much news has been coming from the coaches at mini camp and OTAs. They are loving everything the kid is doing right now. If I'm guessing at Cruz's statline I'll go with:

75 Receptions, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs

thats good news FF wise, surprised hes giving in so early but I guess the players are learning that theres very little to gain when you avoid signing it.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

If Eli can come close to returning to his 2011 form, there is plenty of room for 3 fantasy viable receivers in this offense. Given Nicks's injury history and Randle's inexperience, Cruz is the guy I would make the big bet on for this season.

 

[CR69]

Well:

Victor Cruz is expected to sign his $2.879 million restricted free agent tender Friday.
The Giants could have rescinded Cruz's one-year offer to the veteran's minimum of $630,000 on Monday had he not signed, but that was never considered likely to happen. Cruz skipped mandatory workouts while holding out for a new contract and the sides will continue extension talks before training camp starts. Cruz's agent, Tom Condon, is believed to be seeking at least $8 million annually on his next contract. USA Today's Mike Garafolo reports that the Giants "aren't any closer" on a long-term deal.

So this is good news if anything, he isn't getting his contract and will be around for the remainder of camp. I didn't expect him to hold out anyway but at least this is a good sign he'll be at TC. Which means if he wants this big contract he will probably do everything in his power to try and exceed his 2011 season. I'd say this is a bump for him. That said I'm a little bit lower on him because I think Rueben Randle is going to emerge in a big way this season and take a lot more receptions than the WR3 in NY typically demands. There's evidence to support this from how much news has been coming from the coaches at mini camp and OTAs. They are loving everything the kid is doing right now. If I'm guessing at Cruz's statline I'll go with:

75 Receptions, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs

I'm as high on Randle as anyone else, but I think this has more to do with the fact that Nicks and Cruz are both out. He is getting a lot more work in practice, and obviously the coaches are going to make it sound like they'll be just fine without those guys. You can't expect them to come out and say "Yeah, Randle is pretty good, but without Hakeem and Victor we're going to be screwed this year." The front office would have no leverage in negotiating the contracts.

 

[cstu]

Well:

Victor Cruz is expected to sign his $2.879 million restricted free agent tender Friday.
The Giants could have rescinded Cruz's one-year offer to the veteran's minimum of $630,000 on Monday had he not signed, but that was never considered likely to happen. Cruz skipped mandatory workouts while holding out for a new contract and the sides will continue extension talks before training camp starts. Cruz's agent, Tom Condon, is believed to be seeking at least $8 million annually on his next contract. USA Today's Mike Garafolo reports that the Giants "aren't any closer" on a long-term deal.

So this is good news if anything, he isn't getting his contract and will be around for the remainder of camp. I didn't expect him to hold out anyway but at least this is a good sign he'll be at TC. Which means if he wants this big contract he will probably do everything in his power to try and exceed his 2011 season. I'd say this is a bump for him. That said I'm a little bit lower on him because I think Rueben Randle is going to emerge in a big way this season and take a lot more receptions than the WR3 in NY typically demands. There's evidence to support this from how much news has been coming from the coaches at mini camp and OTAs. They are loving everything the kid is doing right now. If I'm guessing at Cruz's statline I'll go with:

75 Receptions, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs

I'm as high on Randle as anyone else, but I think this has more to do with the fact that Nicks and Cruz are both out. He is getting a lot more work in practice, and obviously the coaches are going to make it sound like they'll be just fine without those guys. You can't expect them to come out and say "Yeah, Randle is pretty good, but without Hakeem and Victor we're going to be screwed this year." The front office would have no leverage in negotiating the contracts.

My thoughts exactly. Unless Randle was obviously playing poorly the coach has no choice but to play up how good they are doing without Nicks and Cruz.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If Eli can come close to returning to his 2011 form, there is plenty of room for 3 fantasy viable receivers in this offense. Given Nicks's injury history and Randle's inexperience, Cruz is the guy I would make the big bet on for this season.

You can make the case that Eli wasn't any worse in 2012 than he was in 2011. He just threw fewer passes (not his fault - blame the defense) and his receivers gained fewer YAC (again, not sure that is on Eli). Throw in the fact that Nicks was hurt, and I think that pretty much entirely explains Eli's dip in production.

 

[Childress]

Cruz is in the same catagory as Welker, harvin, Cobb in terms of playmaking slot guys. I believe that even with the potential emergence of randle that will only make it easier for Cruz to tale advantage of defenses with his speed and explosive abilities. I see him coming up with a stat line between his 2011 and 2012 finish.

85 1300 7

 

[meyerj31]

With Eli not performing as well last year and Nicks hurt, Cruz still managed a top 15 WR line pretty easily. I believe his 2012 were his baseline and he will be performing between WR7-15 on an annual basis (in PPR). One of the reasons Cruz is so successful is that he is one of the best route runners in the league. He is able to read defenses and make adjustments on the fly as good as anyone. I would like to see Nicks get back to form because that will likely increase Cruz's big-play ability (as he would likely face more single-coverage).

88 / 1200 / 9 ... good for WR9 in PPR.

 

[Concept Coop]

If Eli can come close to returning to his 2011 form, there is plenty of room for 3 fantasy viable receivers in this offense. Given Nicks's injury history and Randle's inexperience, Cruz is the guy I would make the big bet on for this season.

You can make the case that Eli wasn't any worse in 2012 than he was in 2011. He just threw fewer passes (not his fault - blame the defense) and his receivers gained fewer YAC (again, not sure that is on Eli). Throw in the fact that Nicks was hurt, and I think that pretty much entirely explains Eli's dip in production.

Manning was tossing ducks for stretches during the season. I didn't see that in 2011.

 

[Concept Coop]

thats good news FF wise, surprised hes giving in so early but I guess the players are learning that theres very little to gain when you avoid signing it.

Mike Wallace got a 40% raise (over proposed deal) by waiting. I think Cruz would have gotten one too. He got less guaranteed money than a 30 year old Greg Jennings coming off an injury plagued season. I have to think Cruz was willing to take a discount to stay in NY and benefit financially from being one of the most popular players in the biggest market.

Honestly, I'm pretty shocked NY was able to lock in up at such a discount. I always thought they would work it out, as both parties wanted it. But I was expecting them to "meet in the middle", somewhere around 9.5-10.5, with 20+ in stone.

 

[amicsta]

thats good news FF wise, surprised hes giving in so early but I guess the players are learning that theres very little to gain when you avoid signing it.

Mike Wallace got a 40% raise (over proposed deal) by waiting. I think Cruz would have gotten one too. He got less guaranteed money than a 30 year old Greg Jennings coming off an injury plagued season. I have to think Cruz was willing to take a discount to stay in NY and benefit financially from being one of the most popular players in the biggest market.

Honestly, I'm pretty shocked NY was able to lock in up at such a discount. I always thought they would work it out, as both parties wanted it. But I was expecting them to "meet in the middle", somewhere around 9.5-10.5, with 20+ in stone.

Cruz is making an amount comprable to other top slot guys in the league. The NFL generally values those guys less than the big outside guys. Also, the giants were in control of these negotiations. Cruz wanted to be there and all he could do was holdout and lose money.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cruz is making an amount comprable to other top slot guys in the league. The NFL generally values those guys less than the big outside guys. Also, the giants were in control of these negotiations. Cruz wanted to be there and all he could do was holdout and lose money.

[SIZE=10.5pt]Cruz isn't strictly a slot guy, though. He is an every down player who does well as a flanker. Percy Harvin got a lot more than Cruz, despite having injury and character concerns, and was never on the market. Besides, “slot” isn’t what it was a decade ago. Defenses are more and more treating slot options as a base offense, even putting top corners on them, when justified. Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and others are lining up in the slot often. A quality slot option is a weapon, just like any other offensive player. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Giants were in control, in terms of the tender, or, 2013. But they didn’t have long-term control, beyond this season, except the control that Cruz surrendered to them. He took a VERY team friendly deal, rather than test free agency. NY was worth millions to him, as he would have gotten millions more on the open market. Maybe he’ll make it up outside of football, or maybe money wasn’t his top priority for other reasons. But, I think it is very clear that he took pay cut, compared to what he would have gotten on the open market. [/SIZE]

 

[Khy]

Cruz is making an amount comprable to other top slot guys in the league. The NFL generally values those guys less than the big outside guys. Also, the giants were in control of these negotiations. Cruz wanted to be there and all he could do was holdout and lose money.

[SIZE=10.5pt]Cruz isn't strictly a slot guy, though. He is an every down player who does well as a flanker. Percy Harvin got a lot more than Cruz, despite having injury and character concerns, and was never on the market. Besides, “slot” isn’t what it was a decade ago. Defenses are more and more treating slot options as a base offense, even putting top corners on them, when justified. Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and others are lining up in the slot often. A quality slot option is a weapon, just like any other offensive player. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Giants were in control, in terms of the tender, or, 2013. But they didn’t have long-term control, beyond this season, except the control that Cruz surrendered to them. He took a VERY team friendly deal, rather than test free agency. NY was worth millions to him, as he would have gotten millions more on the open market. Maybe he’ll make it up outside of football, or maybe money wasn’t his top priority for other reasons. But, I think it is very clear that he took pay cut, compared to what he would have gotten on the open market. [/SIZE]

Sure, that's fair. Cruz CLEARLY wanted to stay in NY and was willing to take a small cut in pay to get that. You also never know how these team moves will work out in the end. He could have ended up going to someone like idk... the Raiders or something next season and getting his big money. Then falling off the map and ruining what at the moment is on track to be a very prominent career with the skill and talent around him to win future Super Bowl's and possibly have a shot at the HoF (obviously I'm not saying he's a HoF player just saying, if he kept this crazy pace of the last two seasons for a whole career). Money probably isn't everything to a guy like Cruz who grew up in poverty but with a good head on his shoulders. I'm sure he has the common sense to understand that $46 million over 6 years with a good team that gives him the best opportunity to succeed is better than $54 millions over 6 years with a sh**ty team that will ruin his career and Super Bowl ring chances. $46 million is a LOT of money and more money than the average person will ever see in their entire lives. As long as you're not LT and blow it all on coke and hookers, it'll last you forever, he's now set for life. Now it's about leaving a legacy to him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Sure, that's fair. Cruz CLEARLY wanted to stay in NY and was willing to take a small cut in pay to get that. You also never know how these team moves will work out in the end. He could have ended up going to someone like idk... the Raiders or something next season and getting his big money. Then falling off the map and ruining what at the moment is on track to be a very prominent career with the skill and talent around him to win future Super Bowl's and possibly have a shot at the HoF (obviously I'm not saying he's a HoF player just saying, if he kept this crazy pace of the last two seasons for a whole career). Money probably isn't everything to a guy like Cruz who grew up in poverty but with a good head on his shoulders. I'm sure he has the common sense to understand that $46 million over 6 years with a good team that gives him the best opportunity to succeed is better than $54 millions over 6 years with a sh**ty team that will ruin his career and Super Bowl ring chances. $46 million is a LOT of money and more money than the average person will ever see in their entire lives. As long as you're not LT and blow it all on coke and hookers, it'll last you forever, he's now set for life. Now it's about leaving a legacy to him.

I agree. I didnt' mean to suggest it was the wrong move for him. Money isn't everything and $11 million, with a chance to see $46 is plenty for most people. He'll also continue to sell soup, clothes, and other goods, thanks to playing in NY.

 

[amicsta]

Cruz is making an amount comprable to other top slot guys in the league. The NFL generally values those guys less than the big outside guys. Also, the giants were in control of these negotiations. Cruz wanted to be there and all he could do was holdout and lose money.

[SIZE=10.5pt]Cruz isn't strictly a slot guy, though. He is an every down player who does well as a flanker. Percy Harvin got a lot more than Cruz, despite having injury and character concerns, and was never on the market. Besides, “slot” isn’t what it was a decade ago. Defenses are more and more treating slot options as a base offense, even putting top corners on them, when justified. Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and others are lining up in the slot often. A quality slot option is a weapon, just like any other offensive player. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Giants were in control, in terms of the tender, or, 2013. But they didn’t have long-term control, beyond this season, except the control that Cruz surrendered to them. He took a VERY team friendly deal, rather than test free agency. NY was worth millions to him, as he would have gotten millions more on the open market. Maybe he’ll make it up outside of football, or maybe money wasn’t his top priority for other reasons. But, I think it is very clear that he took pay cut, compared to what he would have gotten on the open market. [/SIZE]

This is an article I wrote a couple months ago on this topic. I understand that what Cruz does is not as cut and dry as slot/not slot, but anyone who watches the Giants will tell you that Cruz does a majority of his damage there, especially on third down. I really don't see this as being as much of a paycut as people think. His salary is right in line with the guys I mentioned in the article as well as elsewhere in football who have similar roles. If Nicks ends up hitting free agency, I would expect him to make much more. The league tends to value the guys who make plays on the outside more.

And as an aside, Harvin got more money because he does more things. On top of his craftsmanship out of the slot, he is also an incredibly dangerous returner and weapon out of the backfield. Those things have value.

 

[Khy]

Sure, that's fair. Cruz CLEARLY wanted to stay in NY and was willing to take a small cut in pay to get that. You also never know how these team moves will work out in the end. He could have ended up going to someone like idk... the Raiders or something next season and getting his big money. Then falling off the map and ruining what at the moment is on track to be a very prominent career with the skill and talent around him to win future Super Bowl's and possibly have a shot at the HoF (obviously I'm not saying he's a HoF player just saying, if he kept this crazy pace of the last two seasons for a whole career). Money probably isn't everything to a guy like Cruz who grew up in poverty but with a good head on his shoulders. I'm sure he has the common sense to understand that $46 million over 6 years with a good team that gives him the best opportunity to succeed is better than $54 millions over 6 years with a sh**ty team that will ruin his career and Super Bowl ring chances. $46 million is a LOT of money and more money than the average person will ever see in their entire lives. As long as you're not LT and blow it all on coke and hookers, it'll last you forever, he's now set for life. Now it's about leaving a legacy to him.

I agree. I didnt' mean to suggest it was the wrong move for him. Money isn't everything and $11 million, with a chance to see $46 is plenty for most people. He'll also continue to sell soup, clothes, and other goods, thanks to playing in NY.

Oh sure, absolutely. Try going to Oakland or Minnesota and landing a deal with Chunky. It doesn't happen lol

 

[Concept Coop]

Cruz is making an amount comprable to other top slot guys in the league. The NFL generally values those guys less than the big outside guys. Also, the giants were in control of these negotiations. Cruz wanted to be there and all he could do was holdout and lose money.

[SIZE=10.5pt]Cruz isn't strictly a slot guy, though. He is an every down player who does well as a flanker. Percy Harvin got a lot more than Cruz, despite having injury and character concerns, and was never on the market. Besides, “slot” isn’t what it was a decade ago. Defenses are more and more treating slot options as a base offense, even putting top corners on them, when justified. Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and others are lining up in the slot often. A quality slot option is a weapon, just like any other offensive player. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Giants were in control, in terms of the tender, or, 2013. But they didn’t have long-term control, beyond this season, except the control that Cruz surrendered to them. He took a VERY team friendly deal, rather than test free agency. NY was worth millions to him, as he would have gotten millions more on the open market. Maybe he’ll make it up outside of football, or maybe money wasn’t his top priority for other reasons. But, I think it is very clear that he took pay cut, compared to what he would have gotten on the open market. [/SIZE]

This is an article I wrote a couple months ago on this topic. I understand that what Cruz does is not as cut and dry as slot/not slot, but anyone who watches the Giants will tell you that Cruz does a majority of his damage there, especially on third down. I really don't see this as being as much of a paycut as people think. His salary is right in line with the guys I mentioned in the article as well as elsewhere in football who have similar roles. If Nicks ends up hitting free agency, I would expect him to make much more. The league tends to value the guys who make plays on the outside more.

And as an aside, Harvin got more money because he does more things. On top of his craftsmanship out of the slot, he is also an incredibly dangerous returner and weapon out of the backfield. Those things have value.

A lot of cherry picking in that article. Rob Gronkowski plays in the slot nearly as much as Hernandez. Why was his deal (the biggest in NFL TE history) not included? Why is Jennings on the outside, when he's played plenty in the slot? Why include WRs and TEs, when they are paid differently? What is the criteria for "Often line up in the slot?" You take a small sample size of cherry picked stats and draw a conclusion that I don't agree with. I know that outside WRs get paid more than slot WRs, but not for the reasons you suggest, in my opinion. Who had more big plays than Cruz in 2011? Not a single name on your list, in a single given season, if we're using 50 yards as the mark.

The list of guys who fit Cruz's role is very small. We are going to compare him to Welker and Dola, but his situation and skillset is very different. Welker is old and there are questions about his talent and production potential outside of NE. Dola has major injury history and lack of top level, consistant production. Those are the guys we are going to point to, but, for obvious (to me) reasons, Cruz should be making a lot more than them.

Harvin is the other. He does add value as a returner. Sure. But look at what the top return men make. He didn't get a major boost for that. And as for being able to lineup out of the backefield - why do we assume he is getting paid for for that? Where is a list of WRs who get a couple carries a game to compare? Is Harvin's 1,200 yards more valuable than Cruz's because some came as a RB?

You could have made this argument about Hernandez and Gronk getting paid - you could have said "See! TE's just don't get paid that much". And you would have been right, to that point. But they were not TEs in the traditional description, based on use. Surprise! They got paid more than TEs got paid, up to that point.

Cruz isn't "Just a slot guy" and I think it's silly to point to Dola and Welker and suggest Cruz didn't take a major paycut. He is one of the best WRs in the league, is only 26, and isn't getting paid accordingly. He took a major paycut to stay in NY. Good for the Giants, and good for Cruz, as he is obviously happy in this situation. But he is now on a VERY team friendly deal.

 

[silentcoach]

I am not sure what to think of Cruz. Cruz only had 6 catches or more 2/10 times to end the season--20%.

At the start the season he did this 4/5 times--80%

What's more alarming are the target rates.

Last 10 games = 6.7/game

First 6 games = 11.7/game

Anyone know what was going on? 11.7-->6.7 is a pretty big drop off.

I want no part of Cruz if he is only going to get 6.7 targets/game.

 

[netnalp]

I am not sure what to think of Cruz. Cruz only had 6 catches or more 2/10 times to end the season--20%.

At the start the season he did this 4/5 times--80%

What's more alarming are the target rates.

Last 10 games = 6.7/game

First 6 games = 11.7/game

Anyone know what was going on? 11.7-->6.7 is a pretty big drop off.

I want no part of Cruz if he is only going to get 6.7 targets/game.

The coaches said that Cruz struggled when defenders played him up close and got their hands on him. With Nicks hurt, he got more of the focus. I forget if he got less time in the slot as well. Speculation is that one of the reasons the Giants wouldn't offer around $10 million a year is because Cruz is a WR that needs other talented WRs on the field with him to take some of the defense's focus.

I think he also might have too many off the field distractions. Nothing bad, just too many making appearances, stuff like that.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Mike Wallace got a 40% raise (over proposed deal) by waiting. I think Cruz would have gotten one too. He got less guaranteed money than a 30 year old Greg Jennings coming off an injury plagued season. I

Agreed, if he stayed healthy and played out his contract you'd have to assume that he would be really good again and get a better deal. I do think that this opportunity applies to any player who signs when restricted though, so it's not specific to Cruz. He's durable and consistent so maybe that would make it better for him to play it out, shrug.

[SIZE=10.5pt]Cruz isn't strictly a slot guy, though. He is an every down player who does well as a flanker. Percy Harvin got a lot more than Cruz, despite having injury and character concerns, and was never on the market. Besides, “slot” isn’t what it was a decade ago. Defenses are more and more treating slot options as a base offense, even putting top corners on them, when justified. Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and others are lining up in the slot often. A quality slot option is a weapon, just like any other offensive player. [/SIZE]

According to this article (actually PFF) Cruz played 70% of his snaps in the slot compared to 80% for Welker & Amendola. I would call 70% a slot receiver, your mileage may vary. Harvin 60% FWIW.

Good points about the slot being different (Calvin 30%, higher than I would have thought for example). Seems the contract market still forces the Cruzs, Welkers of the world into being a "slot receiver" and those guys get less money than the other guys. Should they? Not for me to say, but that seems to be how it is.

Some interesting quotes from the article, which seem spot on to me.

For starters, the reality of the slot receiver market hurts Cruz's negotiation power.

Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Cruz spent nearly 70 percent of his snaps last season in the slot, which is comparable to both Wes Welker and DannyAmendola—two receivers who also received new deals this offseason.

Welker, 31, signed a two-year deal worth just $12 million with theDenver Broncos, while Amendola, 27, landed a five-year, $28.5 million contract from the New England Patriots. Welker's deal averages $6 million per year, Amendola's $5.7 million.

Cruz is clearly worth more than both—he's just 26 years old and hasn't missed a game over the last two seasons, while also catching 19 touchdowns since 2011—but the market is clearly dictating that slot receivers make less than legitimate No. 1 receivers.

While not elite money, the Giants' offer of over $7 million per year is right on par with the going rate at Cruz's position. Cruz is clearly targeting No. 1 receiver money. It's hard to blame him after seeing all the mega-deals signed over the last 12 months. The receiver-desperate Miami Dolphins just gave Mike Wallace $12 million a year. The two sides agreed to a five-year, $60 million deal on the first day of free agency.

A four-year deal worth roughly $30 million or a five-year deal in the $38-40 million range might not be what Cruz is looking for, but both deals better represent his overall worth than the annual $10-11 million he's currently seeking.

So the comparables to Cruz:
Welker is what 5 years older, on the down side of his career
Amendola is unproven and hasn't been durable
Harvin is 2.5 years younger, more versatile and Seattle seems to be planning to move him all over the field.

Again-not trying to say that Cruz isn't as good as the other guys, just that the NFL has been able to pigeon guys who play a lot in the slot as guys who are paid less.

 

[Concept Coop]

Mike Wallace got a 40% raise (over proposed deal) by waiting. I think Cruz would have gotten one too. He got less guaranteed money than a 30 year old Greg Jennings coming off an injury plagued season. I

Agreed, if he stayed healthy and played out his contract you'd have to assume that he would be really good again and get a better deal. I do think that this opportunity applies to any player who signs when restricted though, so it's not specific to Cruz. He's durable and consistent so maybe that would make it better for him to play it out, shrug.

[SIZE=10.5pt]Cruz isn't strictly a slot guy, though. He is an every down player who does well as a flanker. Percy Harvin got a lot more than Cruz, despite having injury and character concerns, and was never on the market. Besides, “slot” isn’t what it was a decade ago. Defenses are more and more treating slot options as a base offense, even putting top corners on them, when justified. Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and others are lining up in the slot often. A quality slot option is a weapon, just like any other offensive player. [/SIZE]

According to this article (actually PFF) Cruz played 70% of his snaps in the slot compared to 80% for Welker & Amendola. I would call 70% a slot receiver, your mileage may vary. Harvin 60% FWIW.

Good points about the slot being different (Calvin 30%, higher than I would have thought for example). Seems the contract market still forces the Cruzs, Welkers of the world into being a "slot receiver" and those guys get less money than the other guys. Should they? Not for me to say, but that seems to be how it is.

Some interesting quotes from the article, which seem spot on to me.

For starters, the reality of the slot receiver market hurts Cruz's negotiation power.

Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Cruz spent nearly 70 percent of his snaps last season in the slot, which is comparable to both Wes Welker and DannyAmendola—two receivers who also received new deals this offseason.

Welker, 31, signed a two-year deal worth just $12 million with theDenver Broncos, while Amendola, 27, landed a five-year, $28.5 million contract from the New England Patriots. Welker's deal averages $6 million per year, Amendola's $5.7 million.

Cruz is clearly worth more than both—he's just 26 years old and hasn't missed a game over the last two seasons, while also catching 19 touchdowns since 2011—but the market is clearly dictating that slot receivers make less than legitimate No. 1 receivers.

While not elite money, the Giants' offer of over $7 million per year is right on par with the going rate at Cruz's position. Cruz is clearly targeting No. 1 receiver money. It's hard to blame him after seeing all the mega-deals signed over the last 12 months. The receiver-desperate Miami Dolphins just gave Mike Wallace $12 million a year. The two sides agreed to a five-year, $60 million deal on the first day of free agency.

A four-year deal worth roughly $30 million or a five-year deal in the $38-40 million range might not be what Cruz is looking for, but both deals better represent his overall worth than the annual $10-11 million he's currently seeking.

So the comparables to Cruz:
Welker is what 5 years older, on the down side of his career
Amendola is unproven and hasn't been durable
Harvin is 2.5 years younger, more versatile and Seattle seems to be planning to move him all over the field.

Again-not trying to say that Cruz isn't as good as the other guys, just that the NFL has been able to pigeon guys who play a lot in the slot as guys who are paid less.

I agree, but I think it's changing.

Part of the reason slot options are paid less is because there isn't as much of a martket, due to use. Not every team uses it in a way that justifies spending X per year on it. The reason Cruz isn't "just a slot" guy, despite playing in the slot 70% of the time - is that he is on the field 100% of the time when healthy. The Giants use 3 WR sets at a high rate. Plenty of teams would be happy to play Cruz on the outside, if they didn't use the slot as much.

Same thing for TEs, to a degree. Gronk is underpaid, or, would be if every team could use him the way NE does. But they can't, and don't. So the market is smaller, in terms of teams willing to give him $10mil/year.

If every team was equipped to use Welker as NE did - he'd have gotten a hell of a lot more money than he did. But the NE offense is unique, as is Tom Brady.

This is where Cruz is different than Welker and Dola - he can line up on the outside just fine. Every team in the league could use Cruz as a flanker, and every team in the league uses a flanker in their base set. You can't say the same for the slot. Cruz plays the slot, but can do more.

Antonio Brown go 8.5/year. Using that, I think 9.5-10.5 would be Cruz's number, this time next year.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What do owners & Giants fans think of Victor Cruz this year?

Also, any knowledge of watching the game in which Cruz got hurt? He missed practice today.

https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/398117962747760640

Anyone know anything?

 

[Soulfly3]

not getting the ball enough.

manning locking on to nicks a lot, who is absolute crap

cruz bails him out constantly, and I wouldnt be shocked if over the bye they remedy that

huge 2nd half

 

[steveski]

not getting the ball enough.

manning locking on to nicks a lot, who is absolute crap

cruz bails him out constantly, and I wouldnt be shocked if over the bye they remedy that

huge 2nd half

Agreed. Offensive line is playing better as well as the defense. Still not great but much better than the first few weeks. Hopeful that Brown helps the running game and keep defenses honest.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

not getting the ball enough.

manning locking on to nicks a lot, who is absolute crap

cruz bails him out constantly, and I wouldnt be shocked if over the bye they remedy that

huge 2nd half

Agreed. Offensive line is playing better as well as the defense. Still not great but much better than the first few weeks. Hopeful that Brown helps the running game and keep defenses honest.

Cruz is on pace for 144 targets.

What type of targets do you want him to get?

144 targets will probably be close to top 5 to 7 in the league by seasons end.

 

[Soulfly3]

When he is the only one who can catch...? More.

 

[Raider Nation]

Single-digit point totals in 8 of his last 9 games in standard scoring. And the other time, he got 11.

Not exactly sure where to place the blame. I don't think Cruz suddenly lost his talent at 27 years old. Eli looks awful.

 

[Raider Nation]

Nobody wants to discuss Cruz?



I don't see how you can possibly trust him in your playoff lineup this coming weekend. Not only is he not getting it done, but now the Seahawks are next up on the schedule. It's to the point where I'm looking on the waiver wire to catch lightning in a bottle with a replacement WR.

 

[Phenix]

Nobody wants to discuss Cruz?



I don't see how you can possibly trust him in your playoff lineup this coming weekend. Not only is he not getting it done, but now the Seahawks are next up on the schedule. It's to the point where I'm looking on the waiver wire to catch lightning in a bottle with a replacement WR.

Why, he just is not good right now.

I do not know if its QB play, lack of focus or just regressed. But he is not like himself of old.

Seems to off took the money and gave up, you can clearly see he is not running routes as hard as before.

Maybe more worried about getting hurt now that he got paid?

 

[phrozen]

Nobody wants to discuss Cruz?



I don't see how you can possibly trust him in your playoff lineup this coming weekend. Not only is he not getting it done, but now the Seahawks are next up on the schedule. It's to the point where I'm looking on the waiver wire to catch lightning in a bottle with a replacement WR.

Have Cruz as my WR1 in a 12-team first year dynasty league. His lack of production the past couple of months have been really disappointing especially considering how he started the year. Eli has looked awful and has been a major contributor to his dimise also, I think the resurgence of Nicks has cut into Cruz's targets too.

 

[habsfan]

Nobody wants to discuss Cruz?



I don't see how you can possibly trust him in your playoff lineup this coming weekend. Not only is he not getting it done, but now the Seahawks are next up on the schedule. It's to the point where I'm looking on the waiver wire to catch lightning in a bottle with a replacement WR.

Have Cruz as my WR1 in a 12-team first year dynasty league. His lack of production the past couple of months have been really disappointing especially considering how he started the year. Eli has looked awful and has been a major contributor to his dimise also, I think the resurgence of Nicks has cut into Cruz's targets too.

Is a guy who is averaging 66 yards/game and 0 TDs through 14 weeks having a "resurgence"?

 

[Raider Nation]

Nobody wants to discuss Cruz?



I don't see how you can possibly trust him in your playoff lineup this coming weekend. Not only is he not getting it done, but now the Seahawks are next up on the schedule. It's to the point where I'm looking on the waiver wire to catch lightning in a bottle with a replacement WR.

Have Cruz as my WR1 in a 12-team first year dynasty league. His lack of production the past couple of months have been really disappointing especially considering how he started the year. Eli has looked awful and has been a major contributor to his dimise also, I think the resurgence of Nicks has cut into Cruz's targets too.

Is a guy who is averaging 66 yards/game and 0 TDs through 14 weeks having a "resurgence"?

Yeah, let's go with "presence."

 

[phrozen]

Nobody wants to discuss Cruz?



I don't see how you can possibly trust him in your playoff lineup this coming weekend. Not only is he not getting it done, but now the Seahawks are next up on the schedule. It's to the point where I'm looking on the waiver wire to catch lightning in a bottle with a replacement WR.

Have Cruz as my WR1 in a 12-team first year dynasty league. His lack of production the past couple of months have been really disappointing especially considering how he started the year. Eli has looked awful and has been a major contributor to his dimise also, I think the resurgence of Nicks has cut into Cruz's targets too.

Is a guy who is averaging 66 yards/game and 0 TDs through 14 weeks having a "resurgence"?

Yeah, let's go with "presence."

presence is fine with me