Player Spotlight: Willie Parker (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

[SIZE=14pt]2006 Player Spotlight Series[/SIZE]

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

[SIZE=14pt]Thread Topic: Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers[/SIZE]

Player Page Link: Willie Parker Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

[SIZE=14pt]The Rules[/SIZE]

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

[*]For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[SIZE=14pt]Best of Luck and ENJOY![/SIZE]

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I see a slight uptick in Parker's numbers this year, but only that - slight. A lot of people are going to be sky high on Parker because of Bettis' retirement, but I will proffer a few reasons why my expectations are somewhat tempered.

1) Duce Staley. Yeah, I know, he's always hurt. However, he has been more effective than Bettis in the short yardage and feature back roles over the last two years in terms of yards per carry and TD percentage. The Steelers kept him on the roster for a reason - he's a great between-the-tackles runner when healthy, and at the salary he's getting, they WILL use him to lighten the load on Parker.

2) Cedric Humes - The Steelers just drafted a goal-line hammer. With Humes there, even if they lose Staley for an extended period of time, Parker is not going to get many looks inside the 5 against stacked defenses. He's going to have to continue to count on longer TD runs.

3) Parker wears down. Many games last year, Cowher pulled him from the game when the Steelers got leads late. Often, Parker was relieved to be out of the game, as he gets tired in the 4th quarter when he's had a lot of work, and while not as small as many think, is a much better back when he's not getting pummeled 20-25 times per game. The Steelers want to keep those legs fresh (see : Superbowl XL) so that he can make game-changing plays. They won't wear him down.

Bettis got a lot of carries late last year, as it was his swan song, and everyone wanted to see him go out on top. I think Parker will absorb some of those carries this year, but the Steelers are going to want to limit him to about 15-20 carries a game, rather than 22-25, since they have a guy in Staley that they can beat up on and spare Parker a bit. I do think you'll see Parker get targeted a bit more in the passing game, as he is lethal in the open field, and the Steelers may try to get him the ball in space more often, wherre he can get behind a wall of blockers, make plays with his speed, and not absorb a ton of punishment. Don't expect huge receiving numbers though, as the Steelers traditionally do not throw often to the RBs.

Projections :

288 carries, 1292 yards, 5 TDs / 24 rec. 293 yards, 1 TD

Looks to me like a very good RB3/capable RB2 with upside and a likely 3rd round pick in redrafts.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

The LenDale White Scare is over for Parker owners. Fast Willie is looking better than ever for 2006. With Roethlisberger entering year three, Heath Miller entering year two and the addition of Santonio Holmes the Steelers offense should be one of the top 5-10 in the league. Roethlisberger's coming of age in the playoffs may mean a slight uptick in the pass/run ratio but the Steelers are still committed to the run and Parker is their #1 RB. He will likely lose short yardage and goalline carries to Staley but Parker's game is long TDs anyway. I think FWP is carbon copy of Freddy T the past 2-3 years. He has the potential to blow up on any given week, and his end of year numbers will be good but he'll also have weeks that he offers little fantasy production. I think he's a pretty good RB2 but it would be nice to have a solid RB3 to go along with him.

My guess for 2006:

270 carries for 1300 yards, 7 TD

25 receptions for 250 yards, 1 TD

 

[Q-Bert]

First off I can't say how much I am glad that we are starting the Player Spotlight posts. This is some of the best information on this board.

I think Fast Willie is a very nice player if he can be had for the right price. I see no reason that he can't duplicate last year's numbers with maybe a slight increase due to Bettis' retirement. I don't think he will ever be a high touchdown guy. Based on my limited viewing opportunities he looks incredibly fast but seems to lack vision. If there is a hole he hits and hits it fast. If there isn't a hole he hits the back of his offensive linemen and hits them fast.

I have him down for:

290 Carries

1305 Rushing Yards

6 Rushing TDs

20 Receptions

220 Receiving Yards

1 Receiving TD

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think he would be a great player to draft and ride until the trade deadline in your league.

I would not want to count on him come fantasy playoff time.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think his numbers will be similar to what he put up last year.

Hopefully his first full season as the starter taught him a few things and he'll work that much harder to stay fresher late into the game and late into the season.

I think he has a lot more upside than people think based on the above paragraph.

Still, I have him down to basically repeat what he did last season.

1200 rushing yards

4 rushing TDs

20 receptions

200 receiving yards

 

[mbuehner]

Seems to be a consensus on Fast Willy, but the reason i like him as a pick is the risk v reward factor. What everyone thus far has assumed (and i agree is the most likely scenario) is that Parker will be used as he was last year plus a few extra carries from Bettis's share. Very likely, but the good news is he is very unlikely to see a loss of touches now that the draft is over and a FA seems less likely. There is always the risk of injury, but barring that or a cataclismic drop off in production, Parker is a very safe bet to put up his minimum numbers. Last season (missing essentially 2 games with injury), Parker grabbed about 1200 yards rushing and 200 receiving with 5 tds.. This season, i see his nominal numbers as:

1340 Rushing yards

23 Receptions

235 Recieving yards

6 rushing TDs

0 recieving TD

with high confidence he will at least meet these numbers (barring disaster).

So the risk part (downside) is a decent if unspectacular RB2, however it is the upside that is interesting.

Pittsburgh scored 11 tds inside the opponent 5 yardline last season. Bettis scored 9 of those. If that carries over, there are a bunch of fantasy points up for grabs. There are plenty of question marks in this area- can Duce stay healthy, will the rookie Humes show up, what is Haynes roll? Last year, FWP had virtually none of this share of the field (1 carry inside the 5), so every touch he gets is just gravy this year. If he grabs even 25% of the Bettis factor, thats an extra 2 or 3 TDs. And if he somehow defies expectations and ends up the most reliable goalline option, you could theoretically be talking about an additional 7 or 8 tds, enough to put Parker in the top 10. Like I said, its a long shot, but its a potentially huge reward for a reasonably minimal risk. This is the kind of break out opportunity i like to target because even if your dreams dont pan out you still have a solid player out of it.

 

[Fullback Fro]

I think William Parker wil be utilized more in the passing game this year compared to last. With his skillset I think we will see more than receiving 1 TD like everyone has him down for. I see 3 or 4 receiving TD's this year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I see a slight uptick in Parker's numbers this year, but only that - slight.  A lot of people are going to be sky high on Parker because of Bettis' retirement, but I will proffer a few reasons why my expectations are somewhat tempered.

1) Duce Staley.  Yeah, I know, he's always hurt.  However, he has been more effective than Bettis in the short yardage and feature back roles over the last two years in terms of yards per carry and TD percentage.  The Steelers kept him on the roster for a reason - he's a great between-the-tackles runner when healthy, and at the salary he's getting, they WILL use him to lighten the load on Parker.

2) Cedric Humes - The Steelers just drafted a goal-line hammer.  With Humes there, even if they lose Staley for an extended period of time, Parker is not going to get many looks inside the 5 against stacked defenses.  He's going to have to continue to count on longer TD runs.

3) Parker wears down.  Many games last year, Cowher pulled him from the game when the Steelers got leads late.  Often, Parker was relieved to be out of the game, as he gets tired in the 4th quarter when he's had a lot of work, and while not as small as many think, is a much better back when he's not getting pummeled 20-25 times per game.  The Steelers want to keep those legs fresh (see : Superbowl XL) so that he can make game-changing plays.  They won't wear him down.

Bettis got a lot of carries late last year, as it was his swan song, and everyone wanted to see him go out on top.  I think Parker will absorb some of those carries this year, but the Steelers are going to want to limit him to about 15-20 carries a game, rather than 22-25, since they have a guy in Staley that they can beat up on and spare Parker a bit.  I do think you'll see Parker get targeted a bit more in the passing game, as he is lethal in the open field, and the Steelers may try to get him the ball in space more often, wherre he can get behind a wall of blockers, make plays with his speed, and not absorb a ton of punishment.  Don't expect huge receiving numbers though, as the Steelers traditionally do not throw often to the RBs.

Projections :

288 carries, 1292 yards, 5 TDs / 24 rec.  293 yards, 1 TD

Looks to me like a very good RB3/capable RB2 with upside and a likely 3rd round pick in redrafts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good write up EG,With the re-signing of V.Hayes too, I think that will possibly cut into Parker's receiving numbers too.

 

[delusional]

I think William Parker wil be utilized more in the passing game this year compared to last.  With his skillset I think we will see more than receiving 1 TD like everyone has him down for.  I see 3 or 4 receiving TD's this year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

kind of like a westbrook 2 years ago

 

[Wade]

The first three weeks of the season in 2005, Jerome Bettis was injured, and we got a look at a Steelers team where there was no Bettis and Willie Parker was the main RB. The first two games were against soft defenses, and Parker racked up 272 YDS and 2 TDs; the third game against the Patriots was much tougher (55 YDS, 0 TD). More important than the result of those games was the chance to see what opportunity Parker had in a Bettis-less environment. He averaged 21.3 carries per game the first three weeks of the season. Cowher is not afraid to hand him the ball.

The Steelers will run the football 500+ times in 2006, and if Parker gets just 60% of those carries, he'll have 300 carries to go with his excellent yards per carry average. I think he'll actually get the ball a bit more than that, and will also prove that he can score touchdowns inside the twenty as well as 40 yards out. Verron Haynes will likely vulture touchdowns inside the 10 yard line, but for everything else, Willie Parker will have the opportunity to run and to score.

Willie Parker, RB PIT

325 ATT, 1400 YDS, 10 TD

25 REC, 250 REC YDS, 1 REC TD

 

[Wade]

I think William Parker wil be utilized more in the passing game this year compared to last.  With his skillset I think we will see more than receiving 1 TD like everyone has him down for.  I see 3 or 4 receiving TD's this year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Regarding receptions to RBs:In 2005, six RBs totaled 46 receptions for 448 yds and 1 td

In 2004, five RBs totaled 43 receptions for 334 yds and 3 td (two to Verron Haynes, one to Kreider)

Nothing in that Roethlisberger history indicates that he likes throwing passes (much less touchdowns) to his RBs.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Seems to be a consensus on Fast Willy, but the reason i like him as a pick is the risk v reward factor.  What everyone thus far has assumed (and i agree is the most likely scenario) is that Parker will be used as he was last year plus a few extra carries from Bettis's share. Very likely, but the good news is he is very unlikely to see a loss of touches now that the draft is over and a FA seems less likely. There is always the risk of injury, but barring that or a cataclismic drop off in production, Parker is a very safe bet to put up his minimum numbers. Last season (missing essentially 2 games with injury), Parker  grabbed about 1200 yards rushing and 200 receiving with 5 tds.. This season, i see his nominal numbers as:

1340 Rushing yards

23 Receptions

235 Recieving yards

6  rushing TDs

0 recieving TD

with high confidence he will at least meet these numbers (barring disaster).

So the risk part (downside) is a decent if unspectacular RB2, however it is the upside that is interesting.

Pittsburgh scored 11 tds inside the opponent 5 yardline last season. Bettis scored 9 of those. If that carries over, there are a bunch of fantasy points up for grabs. There are plenty of question marks in this area- can Duce stay healthy, will the rookie Humes show up, what is Haynes roll? Last year, FWP had virtually none of this share of the field (1 carry inside the 5), so every touch he gets is just gravy this year. If he grabs even 25% of the Bettis factor, thats an extra 2 or 3 TDs. And if he somehow defies expectations and ends up the most reliable goalline option, you could theoretically be talking about an additional 7 or 8 tds, enough to put Parker in the top 10. Like I said, its a long shot, but its a potentially huge reward for a reasonably minimal risk. This is the kind of break out opportunity i like to target because even if your dreams dont pan out you still have a solid player out of it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree with all of this. I just don't know if I'd be comfortable with him as a RB2 - with Humes in the mix along with Haynes and Staley, he's likely to be the 4th option at the stripe. Odds are good that he gets none of those Bettis carries, and I'd be nervous starting a guy every week that only scores once every 2-3 games.

 

[stbugs]

I see a slight uptick in Parker's numbers this year, but only that - slight.  A lot of people are going to be sky high on Parker because of Bettis' retirement, but I will proffer a few reasons why my expectations are somewhat tempered.

1) Duce Staley.  Yeah, I know, he's always hurt.  However, he has been more effective than Bettis in the short yardage and feature back roles over the last two years in terms of yards per carry and TD percentage.  The Steelers kept him on the roster for a reason - he's a great between-the-tackles runner when healthy, and at the salary he's getting, they WILL use him to lighten the load on Parker.

2) Cedric Humes - The Steelers just drafted a goal-line hammer.  With Humes there, even if they lose Staley for an extended period of time, Parker is not going to get many looks inside the 5 against stacked defenses.  He's going to have to continue to count on longer TD runs.

3) Parker wears down.  Many games last year, Cowher pulled him from the game when the Steelers got leads late.  Often, Parker was relieved to be out of the game, as he gets tired in the 4th quarter when he's had a lot of work, and while not as small as many think, is a much better back when he's not getting pummeled 20-25 times per game.  The Steelers want to keep those legs fresh (see : Superbowl XL) so that he can make game-changing plays.  They won't wear him down.

Bettis got a lot of carries late last year, as it was his swan song, and everyone wanted to see him go out on top.  I think Parker will absorb some of those carries this year, but the Steelers are going to want to limit him to about 15-20 carries a game, rather than 22-25, since they have a guy in Staley that they can beat up on and spare Parker a bit.  I do think you'll see Parker get targeted a bit more in the passing game, as he is lethal in the open field, and the Steelers may try to get him the ball in space more often, wherre he can get behind a wall of blockers, make plays with his speed, and not absorb a ton of punishment.  Don't expect huge receiving numbers though, as the Steelers traditionally do not throw often to the RBs.

Projections :

288 carries, 1292 yards, 5 TDs / 24 rec.  293 yards, 1 TD

Looks to me like a very good RB3/capable RB2 with upside and a likely 3rd round pick in redrafts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How much of the wearing down last year was due to the fact that he was not supposed to be the RB1 going into 2005? He was a COP type back and got thrust into the lineup, remember that it was a question mark as to who would start week 1. Staley was supposed to be the guy, not Parker.Also, it is funny that people mention that Parker is not a 20-25 carry per game back when only 8 RBs got over 20 carries per game. That is 24 teams that did not have a 20 carry per game RB. I figured it out before and Parker averaged about 18 carries a game in games where he played the whole game and topped 20 carries 5 times. I would be very interested to see what Pittsburgh/Parker's training regimen is for Parker, i.e. if they are gearing him up to be RB1, unlike last year.

I am very happy (I drafted him in the 15th round last year, so I can keep him for a 14th) that only Humes got drafted this year because like in Dominick Davis' position, it was kind of a vote of confidence in Parker being the main RB again.

As for totals, I would predict 1600 total yards and 8 total TDs. This would put him at RB9 based on FBG's 2005 rankings, which isn't a huge leap from his actual 2005 ranking at RB15. He was also only 1 point behind McGahee at RB13 and virtually tied with Droughns at RB14.

 

[nightshift]

Seems to be a consensus on Fast Willy, but the reason i like him as a pick is the risk v reward factor.  What everyone thus far has assumed (and i agree is the most likely scenario) is that Parker will be used as he was last year plus a few extra carries from Bettis's share. Very likely, but the good news is he is very unlikely to see a loss of touches now that the draft is over and a FA seems less likely. There is always the risk of injury, but barring that or a cataclismic drop off in production, Parker is a very safe bet to put up his minimum numbers. Last season (missing essentially 2 games with injury), Parker  grabbed about 1200 yards rushing and 200 receiving with 5 tds.. This season, i see his nominal numbers as:

1340 Rushing yards

23 Receptions

235 Recieving yards

6  rushing TDs

0 recieving TD

with high confidence he will at least meet these numbers (barring disaster).

So the risk part (downside) is a decent if unspectacular RB2, however it is the upside that is interesting.

Pittsburgh scored 11 tds inside the opponent 5 yardline last season. Bettis scored 9 of those. If that carries over, there are a bunch of fantasy points up for grabs. There are plenty of question marks in this area- can Duce stay healthy, will the rookie Humes show up, what is Haynes roll? Last year, FWP had virtually none of this share of the field (1 carry inside the 5), so every touch he gets is just gravy this year. If he grabs even 25% of the Bettis factor, thats an extra 2 or 3 TDs. And if he somehow defies expectations and ends up the most reliable goalline option, you could theoretically be talking about an additional 7 or 8 tds, enough to put Parker in the top 10. Like I said, its a long shot, but its a potentially huge reward for a reasonably minimal risk. This is the kind of break out opportunity i like to target because even if your dreams dont pan out you still have a solid player out of it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree with all of this. I just don't know if I'd be comfortable with him as a RB2 - with Humes in the mix along with Haynes and Staley, he's likely to be the 4th option at the stripe. Odds are good that he gets none of those Bettis carries, and I'd be nervous starting a guy every week that only scores once every 2-3 games.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unless there's an injury (that never happens with Staley) I don't Humes getting much playing time this year. Depending on how he does, maybe an "OK" amount in 2007.I think when camp is all said & done, FWP will be #1, Haynes #2, Staley in relief, and Humes doing some garbage time work late in the season.

Cowher seems to be 100% his current RB corp and I can see no reason to doubt that.

BTW, the Duckett fiasco confirms my belief that is the case. If the Steelers really believe they needed a RB, they would have got one in the first (plenty of opportunity) or they would spent the picks for Duckett. What they was offered was barely more than they gave up for Humes.

 

[FrostBite]

288 carries (18/game avg)

1238 yards (4.3 avg) He had a 4.71 avg last year.

7 TD's

20 receptions

240 yards

2 TD's

He solidified his position as the #1 RB last year and I think he has room to improve on those numbers with Bettis gone. He's also coming into camp preparing to be the #1 RB so I suspect he will be in better shape then he was in last year. A lot of rookie RB's wear down towards the end of their first year so I don't really see that as a problem.

Like others have stated, the downside is minimal and you could do a lot worse at RB2!

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

He's also coming into camp preparing to be the #1 RB so I suspect he will be in better shape then he was in last year. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I only have one problem with this (not saying you're wrong).Shouldn't he have come to camp preparing to win the #1 RB job?

 

[FrostBite]

He's also coming into camp preparing to be the #1 RB so I suspect he will be in better shape then he was in last year. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I only have one problem with this (not saying you're wrong).Shouldn't he have come to camp preparing to win the #1 RB job?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tomlinson wore down his first year??? Most rookie RB's do, so while he probably prepared himself... he really didn't know what to expect. This year he will.

 

[chocolate bomber]

He's also coming into camp preparing to be the #1 RB so I suspect he will be in better shape then he was in last year. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I only have one problem with this (not saying you're wrong).Shouldn't he have come to camp preparing to win the #1 RB job?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tomlinson wore down his first year??? Most rookie RB's do, so while he probably prepared himself... he really didn't know what to expect. This year he will.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He didn't look so worn down in the Super Bowl. FWP is one of the most despised guys on the these boards right now. Bettis just retired and they drafted only Humes? I have seen guys on this board salivate over far less proven players in worse situations than Parker. I can see him producing at Dunn/Westbrook level. I'm not going to cry about that. Yes, I own him in a dynasty league.

 

[Tau837]

Check Parker's fantasy point totals (FBG scoring):

26.9

17.1

4.9

4.0

5.5

19.1

8.1

2.3

14.1

6.6

8.2

11.3

9.7

19.0

15.2

Playoffs:

13.9

7.8

5.5

15.4

Random observations:

1. I count 7 of 15 regular season games that I'd be happy with from my RB2, and another 3 I could tolerate (the 8-9 point games). And overall he averaged 11.5 ppg, which would be fine for a RB2 taken later (not for a RB2 taken near the turn in the second). His carries and ppg dropped slightly during the playoffs, though I wouldn't read too much into that.

2. Consider these ppg splits:

10 games Steelers won by 11+ points: 15.3 ppg

9 other games for Parker: 6.8 ppg

Is this typical of other lead backs? (I'm not sure.) Can the easy games for the Steelers be predicted reasonably accurately?

3. Will the games in which Parker is featured heavily be predictable in advance? Last season, the Steelers really mixed up the carries game to game. Bettis had 9 (of his 12) games with 8+ carries. Staley had 2 (of his 5) games with 15+ carries. Haynes had 5 (of his 14) games with 9+ carries. Parker definitely was the consistent ball carrier, with 10+ carries in 14 of 15 games, but Cowher definitely chose to spread the ball around. Is that likely to prevent Parker's carry total from getting too much higher than last year?

3a. Of his 5 best regular season games, 3 came with little competition from Bettis & Staley (first two weeks, week 17). Will he have many games with little competition this season?

3b. Another way to look at this: will Haynes, Staley, Humes, Herron, etc. (and any free agent RBs that may be picked up later) combine to touch the ball as often as Bettis, Haynes, and Staley did last season? Between them, Bettis, Haynes, and Staley missed 17 games.

3c. No Steelers RB has had more than 255 carries since 2000. That was, of course, Bettis. And clearly Bettis was not replaced in short yardage and/or goal line situations as Parker is likely to be. That season was the 5th in a row that Bettis reached 300 carries (counting a 299 season). But it has happened only once in Cowher's other 10 seasons (Barry Foster in 1992). Given that Parker does not fit the mold of Bettis or Foster, I think it is fairly unlikely that he will reach 300 carries.

4. All of these things, along with normal likelihood for RBs to miss some time, make it likely to me that he will not get 300 carries. Combine that likelihood with the likelihood of a relatively low TD total since he isn't likely to get many goal line carries, and a likely low involvement in the passing game, and I'm not sure I see the upside that many see here.

Projections: 275/1240/6 rushing, 20/200/1 receiving, 186 fantasy points (RB13 last year)

 

[stbugs]

He's also coming into camp preparing to be the #1 RB so I suspect he will be in better shape then he was in last year. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I only have one problem with this (not saying you're wrong).Shouldn't he have come to camp preparing to win the #1 RB job?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not necessarily. I am not an NFL RB or an NFL coach, but does it really seem out of the question for a guy who wasn't an early draft pick to do whatever the coaches told him to do? It wasn't until about 1-2 weeks before the season started that Parker was hinted at being the week 1 starter and even at that point I don't recall reading anything where Staley was supposed to miss more than the first couple weeks. Parker played well enough that Pitt didn't even care about when Staley was healthy.All I am saying is that there are 3rd string RBs (4th if you count Hayes as the 3rd down back) who prepare to be a change of pace back. Remember the rumors that Parker had lost a bunch of weight? Well if, like this year, he felt like he was going to get 250+ carries, which no one thought he would, he might have added more weight in the off-season and worked on endurance training instead of getting lighter and focusing just on speed.

 

[mlball77]

Someone else mentioned this previously, but I think that Parker could continue to improve his role in the passing game. The one detractor for Parker in ff, as I see it, is his lack of use in goal-line situations and TD production.

I see his numbers in 06 around this:

Rushing Yds: 1250

Rushing TDs: 5

Recs: 32

Rec Yds: 290

Rec TDs: 1

I think he should easily be a RB2 in most standard leagues.

 

[delusional]

basically i am getting a steal with this guy as my keeper...a 11th round pick

 

[Cookiemonster]

I will give a couple thoughts to the post-Bettis era of the Steelers offense to support my projections.

First, the vacuum created by the loss of Bettis. Where will his carries and TDs go? I look to the '04 season where Staley had 100+ yds/game through the 1st 7 games before injury stunted his statistics. Last offseason, Staley had a clean-up surgery to his knee that sidelined him for the 1st few weeks. In that time (along with Parker's final '04 trouncing of the Bills), Fast Willie showed that he could be the future in Pitt. By the time he was ready to return to the lineup, Parker was #1 and Staley honorably stepped out of the heat for the #2 to give the Bus a swan song. Now with the Bus gone, Staley steps into the 'Bus' role and the #2 spot while Haynes will get the nod on passing situations with Staley the #2 option in that capacity. It has been pointed out that Staley was more effective than Bettis in ypc and short yardage situations with a slight edge to Bettis at the goal line. Add to this that Staley is a much better option in the passing game than Bettis and I can safely say that most of the lost Bettis action will include Staley. Haynes' improvement and versatility should lead to a more involved role that, combined with Staley, should eat up more touches and playing time and receptions than Bettis took from Parker.

Second, I'd like to address the state of the Steeler offense. The maturation of Big Ben has put more emphasis on the passing game. Along with Ben and All-Pro Ward, the additions of Miller and Wilson last year and Holmes this year lead me to believe that the Black and Gold will become a much more balanced offense, taking a little strain off of the running game that is not quite the move-the-chains style we have become comfortable with since the arrival of Bettis. This team is a THREAT in the air. While not in the same league as Indy and the Bengals, the level of talent will dictate a more active offense. Remember back just a couple years when TOMMY MADDOX had TWO 1,000 yard recievers under Bill Cowher? Ben is no Maddox, and the offense has more weapons than the Maddox Steelers did. Cowher will definately continue to run the ball, but he has shown the flexibility to adapt to his team's strengths and not remain stubborn to what he would like to do. As far as Parker is concerned, this should open up and spread the defenses a little more with 3 wide sets as well as a recieving threat at TE. This is favorable for the speedster as he tends to go down fairly easily in the face of linebackers and even arm tackles from defensive lineman. With the addition of defensive backs and resulting loss of linebackers or linemen, the creases up the middle become vulnerable to Fast Willie.

For those who cite the lack of receptions to Steeler backs, concider who the best pass catching back has been in the Cowher era and most will scratch their heads. The more enthusiastic fans may point to Amos Zereoue. Yeah, the guy who was cut from Oakland before Jordan arrived and has done so well since, that I'm not even sure if he has a job anymore. Like I said before, Cowher is smart enough to play to his team's strengths and Parker is the kind of player that you want to get the ball in space. He may be the 3rd, 4th or even 5th option on most plays, but as long as Steeler backs are not precieved as a recieving threat, the coverage will be geared towards Ward, Wilson, Holmes and Miller. Granted, Haynes will be in on most obvious passing downs but we will be seeing more throws on 1st and 2nd downs than we have in the past.

Last year, Parker put up 1,202 yards on 255 carries with 4 TDs. He added 18 receptions for 218 yards and one TD in the passing game. Due to my arguments above, I believe his carries will drop slightly to about 225-235 but his ypc may go up slightly. 1,120 yards is a safe estimate but I also bump him up a little in finding the endzone because of experience and conditioning/preparation. 5 TD sounds about right. Up only one TD from last year because of the projected loss of carries. He makes up for it in the passing game this year though. Up from 18 catches a year ago to 28, and from 218 yards to 320 with 3 recieving TDs instead of just 1.

'06 projections: 235 for 1,120 (4.76 ypc) and 5 TDs.

28 rec. for 320 (11.4 ypr) and 3 TDs.

Score accordingly.

 

[Baracuda]

How do you guys think the emergence of Roethlisberger impacts FWP's stats? There seems to be some feeling that the TD void created by Bettis has to go to another running back, but how likely is it that it will shift to the passing game instead?

 

[Cookiemonster]

How do you guys think the emergence of Roethlisberger impacts FWP's stats?  There seems to be some feeling that the TD void created by Bettis has to go to another running back, but how likely is it that it will shift to the passing game instead?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

See post above yours.

 

[beto]

With the 0-line Pittsburgh has FWP shouldn't see much of a drop in YPC. I think he sees a slight increase in carries. Not a big increase because Staley should see a significant number. Also, I think Pittsburgh involves him in the passing game, esp. on 1st and 2nd down.

275 carries 1230 yards 6 TDs

30 rec 300 yrds 2 TDs

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

274 carries

1233 yards

4.5 ypc

6 TD

26 catches

218 yards

2 TD

1451 yards total, 8 TD total

I'm trying to be conservative with my prediction here because I think the upside is there. I would not be shocked if he breaks off 3 or 4 50 yard TDs and pushes 1,500 yards rushing and double-digit scores. At worst expect a repeat of last year.

 

[Keys Myaths]

The defense is the key here. Pittsburgh's defense will allow Parker to get a TON of late game carries, which separates average FF backs from very good ones.

On top of that, Parker won't have Bettis this year. Yes, there will be a goalline vulture, but Bettis took away much more than that at times last year. There won't be anyone to steal carries before the 10 yard line this year.

1325 yards, 3 TD rushing, and 21 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TD receiving.

 

[Steelers4Life]

The defense is the key here.  Pittsburgh's defense will allow Parker to get a TON of late game carries, which separates average FF backs from very good ones.

On top of that, Parker won't have Bettis this year.  Yes, there will be a goalline vulture, but Bettis took away much more than that at times last year.  There won't be anyone to steal carries before the 10 yard line this year.

1325 yards, 3 TD rushing, and 21 receptions for 240 yards and 2 TD receiving.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If the Steelers are up late in games next year, it won't be Willie Parker getting those clock-eating carries. You can expect Duce to see those carries when healthy, and as things stand now, I'd expect Verron Haynes to also see action in those situations. Haynes will likely also keep his 3rd down back role, and he's very good in that role.

And regarding people's opinion that Parker will see more time in the passing game, well, it's not going to happen. In the Steelers' offense, the RBs just aren't used in the passing game very often. That's not going to change no matter how many people think it will.

I don't expect his 2006 season to be vastly different from his 2005 season. Parker is much more of a game-breaker when he's healthy and fresh, and I expect the Steelers to keep him that way just as they did in 2005.

260 carries, 1175 yards, 6 TDs

25 catches, 290 yards, 1 TD

 

[mbuehner]

If the Steelers are up late in games next year, it won't be Willie Parker getting those clock-eating carries.

Conversely, if the Steelers are in close games Parker will see more action. The Steelers arent afraid to run the ball when they are losing either, so oddly enough the tougher a season Pittsburgh has the more they will have to lean on Parker and the better his fantasy numbers are likely to be.

 

[Tau837]

If the Steelers are up late in games next year, it won't be Willie Parker getting those clock-eating carries.

Conversely, if the Steelers are in close games Parker will see more action. The Steelers arent afraid to run the ball when they are losing either, so oddly enough the tougher a season Pittsburgh has the more they will have to lean on Parker and the better his fantasy numbers are likely to be.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

From my post above:

2. Consider these ppg splits:

10 games Steelers won by 11+ points: 15.3 ppg

9 other games for Parker: 6.8 ppg

Is this typical of other lead backs?  (I'm not sure.)  Can the easy games for the Steelers be predicted reasonably accurately?

Does this contradict your point here? Maybe not, but he didn't perform well last year in the close games.I assume you are suggesting that last year the go to guy wasn't Parker, but this year it will be... though I'm not sure I could agree with that, since Parker had 255 carries to lead the team, with Bettis at 110 as a distant second.

 

[mbuehner]

Does this contradict your point here? Maybe not, but he didn't perform well last year in the close games.I assume you are suggesting that last year the go to guy wasn't Parker, but this year it will be... though I'm not sure I could agree with that, since Parker had 255 carries to lead the team, with Bettis at 110 as a distant second.

True, but then we get into a bit of a chicken and an egg argument- if Parker ended up having a big game they usually end up winning by a lot (5 of the 7 11+ point wins Parker played in he had over 100 yards rushing). In situations where Pittsburgh led, Parker had 135 carries to Bettis 51. When Pittsburgh was behind Parker 49 Bettis 36. When tied Parker 71, Bettis 23. Clearly Bettis's number was called at a lot higher freguency than normal when losing, which suggests to me the Steelers tended to ride Parker when he was hot but go to Bettis when he struggled. Verron Haynes had 69 carries when ahead and 3 when behind.I think Cower goes to the guy he has the most faith in when they hit a rough patch. With Bettis gone that may well be Staley, but Parker seems to still get his number called reasonably often (far more than Haynes) so he could pick up a number of those 'Bettis' carries.

 

[jurb26]

Not much to say here either. Pitt did go out and get a big RB in the draft, be it late and not a highly talented one. That however can be a bit misleading. After White, there were no other big backs that really fit the Steelers mold other than Humes and well... they drafted Humes. The Steelers have made it abvious that they are not content with Parker as a fetured/every down runner IMO. They got the next best big RB via the draft and also targeted Duckett. My guess is that since they could not get a top talent, they will again turn to Staley. They realize his inability to stay healthy though and grabed HUmes for insurance. Now factor in that Pitt went out of their way to grab what they saw as the BEST WR in the draft, Holmes. I'm guessing the realize that they do not have the player makeup anymore to simply run, run, run. Ben is developing still and this O seems to be turning a corner a bit. Parker will tease owners this year with some fantastic games much like he did last year. His TDs will be very few and far between however and the carry distribution will prove once again inconcistant.

245 carries, 1180 yds, 5 TDs, 20 rec, 180 yds, 1 TDs

 

[Righetti]

I just traded for Willie Parker in a dynasty forman and did it for a number of reasons.

1) In the games I saw him play, he was actually much tougher and fought for yards..

2) Cohwer is a top coach who comes from the old-school of running the ball, playing clock management and playind good defense.. They will continue to run the ball a ton this year... the toughness I saw out of FWP gives me reason to believe he is more than a Michael Bennett type of track-star.

3) I realize FWP will not get double-digit touchdowns, but very few backs do.. He'll be pulled at the goal-line by Humes or Staley, but he won't be pulled at the rate that he was last year for Bettis.. Bettis was in his final season and the Steelers realized early on that they wanted to give him an opportunity to succeed.. he has always proven to be a good short-yardage back and didn't dissapoint last year.. I don't think this was a case of FWP not being able to handle it but more a case of the Steelers having a top goal-line back on the roster....

now this is NOT a reason that can be backed up by anything but "feel" but every year.. there is a running back who comes out of nowhere has a nice season and continues on that pace (Dom Davis, Rudi Johnson the last couple of years).. These guys who have to work harder to get respect...sometimes turn out to be very good NFL backs... It's been proven over and over again that the RB position is one that can be filled by very good undrafted free-agents and FWP could be the next in that mold

how about these numbers

270/1245/6

plus

29/334/2

very nice numbers for a guy you can probably get cheap

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I see a slight uptick in Parker's numbers this year, but only that - slight.  A lot of people are going to be sky high on Parker because of Bettis' retirement, but I will proffer a few reasons why my expectations are somewhat tempered.

1) Duce Staley.  Yeah, I know, he's always hurt.  However, he has been more effective than Bettis in the short yardage and feature back roles over the last two years in terms of yards per carry and TD percentage.  The Steelers kept him on the roster for a reason - he's a great between-the-tackles runner when healthy, and at the salary he's getting, they WILL use him to lighten the load on Parker.

2) Cedric Humes - The Steelers just drafted a goal-line hammer.  With Humes there, even if they lose Staley for an extended period of time, Parker is not going to get many looks inside the 5 against stacked defenses.  He's going to have to continue to count on longer TD runs.

3) Parker wears down.  Many games last year, Cowher pulled him from the game when the Steelers got leads late.  Often, Parker was relieved to be out of the game, as he gets tired in the 4th quarter when he's had a lot of work, and while not as small as many think, is a much better back when he's not getting pummeled 20-25 times per game.  The Steelers want to keep those legs fresh (see : Superbowl XL) so that he can make game-changing plays.  They won't wear him down.

Bettis got a lot of carries late last year, as it was his swan song, and everyone wanted to see him go out on top.  I think Parker will absorb some of those carries this year, but the Steelers are going to want to limit him to about 15-20 carries a game, rather than 22-25, since they have a guy in Staley that they can beat up on and spare Parker a bit.  I do think you'll see Parker get targeted a bit more in the passing game, as he is lethal in the open field, and the Steelers may try to get him the ball in space more often, wherre he can get behind a wall of blockers, make plays with his speed, and not absorb a ton of punishment.  Don't expect huge receiving numbers though, as the Steelers traditionally do not throw often to the RBs.

Projections :

288 carries, 1292 yards, 5 TDs / 24 rec.  293 yards, 1 TD

Looks to me like a very good RB3/capable RB2 with upside and a likely 3rd round pick in redrafts.

How much of the wearing down last year was due to the fact that he was not supposed to be the RB1 going into 2005? He was a COP type back and got thrust into the lineup, remember that it was a question mark as to who would start week 1. Staley was supposed to be the guy, not Parker.

Also, it is funny that people mention that Parker is not a 20-25 carry per game back when only 8 RBs got over 20 carries per game. That is 24 teams that did not have a 20 carry per game RB. I figured it out before and Parker averaged about 18 carries a game in games where he played the whole game and topped 20 carries 5 times. I would be very interested to see what Pittsburgh/Parker's training regimen is for Parker, i.e. if they are gearing him up to be RB1, unlike last year.

I am very happy (I drafted him in the 15th round last year, so I can keep him for a 14th) that only Humes got drafted this year because like in Dominick Davis' position, it was kind of a vote of confidence in Parker being the main RB again.

As for totals, I would predict 1600 total yards and 8 total TDs. This would put him at RB9 based on FBG's 2005 rankings, which isn't a huge leap from his actual 2005 ranking at RB15. He was also only 1 point behind McGahee at RB13 and virtually tied with Droughns at RB14.

This would be applicable if we were talking about most other teams, but Pittsburgh runs so much, that even getting 70% of the carries makes you a 20+ carries per game back. In his 6 years as full-time starter with Pittsburgh, Bettis averaged over 20 carries per game 5 times. Parker is the first unquestioned #1 back they've had going into a season since then, but I just don't see them doing that with him.

 

[Righetti]

I see a slight uptick in Parker's numbers this year, but only that - slight.  A lot of people are going to be sky high on Parker because of Bettis' retirement, but I will proffer a few reasons why my expectations are somewhat tempered.

1) Duce Staley.  Yeah, I know, he's always hurt.  However, he has been more effective than Bettis in the short yardage and feature back roles over the last two years in terms of yards per carry and TD percentage.  The Steelers kept him on the roster for a reason - he's a great between-the-tackles runner when healthy, and at the salary he's getting, they WILL use him to lighten the load on Parker.

2) Cedric Humes - The Steelers just drafted a goal-line hammer.  With Humes there, even if they lose Staley for an extended period of time, Parker is not going to get many looks inside the 5 against stacked defenses.  He's going to have to continue to count on longer TD runs.

3) Parker wears down.  Many games last year, Cowher pulled him from the game when the Steelers got leads late.  Often, Parker was relieved to be out of the game, as he gets tired in the 4th quarter when he's had a lot of work, and while not as small as many think, is a much better back when he's not getting pummeled 20-25 times per game.  The Steelers want to keep those legs fresh (see : Superbowl XL) so that he can make game-changing plays.  They won't wear him down.

Bettis got a lot of carries late last year, as it was his swan song, and everyone wanted to see him go out on top.  I think Parker will absorb some of those carries this year, but the Steelers are going to want to limit him to about 15-20 carries a game, rather than 22-25, since they have a guy in Staley that they can beat up on and spare Parker a bit.  I do think you'll see Parker get targeted a bit more in the passing game, as he is lethal in the open field, and the Steelers may try to get him the ball in space more often, wherre he can get behind a wall of blockers, make plays with his speed, and not absorb a ton of punishment.  Don't expect huge receiving numbers though, as the Steelers traditionally do not throw often to the RBs.

Projections :

288 carries, 1292 yards, 5 TDs / 24 rec.  293 yards, 1 TD

Looks to me like a very good RB3/capable RB2 with upside and a likely 3rd round pick in redrafts.

How much of the wearing down last year was due to the fact that he was not supposed to be the RB1 going into 2005? He was a COP type back and got thrust into the lineup, remember that it was a question mark as to who would start week 1. Staley was supposed to be the guy, not Parker.

Also, it is funny that people mention that Parker is not a 20-25 carry per game back when only 8 RBs got over 20 carries per game. That is 24 teams that did not have a 20 carry per game RB. I figured it out before and Parker averaged about 18 carries a game in games where he played the whole game and topped 20 carries 5 times. I would be very interested to see what Pittsburgh/Parker's training regimen is for Parker, i.e. if they are gearing him up to be RB1, unlike last year.

I am very happy (I drafted him in the 15th round last year, so I can keep him for a 14th) that only Humes got drafted this year because like in Dominick Davis' position, it was kind of a vote of confidence in Parker being the main RB again.

As for totals, I would predict 1600 total yards and 8 total TDs. This would put him at RB9 based on FBG's 2005 rankings, which isn't a huge leap from his actual 2005 ranking at RB15. He was also only 1 point behind McGahee at RB13 and virtually tied with Droughns at RB14.

This would be applicable if we were talking about most other teams, but Pittsburgh runs so much, that even getting 70% of the carries makes you a 20+ carries per game back. In his 6 years as full-time starter with Pittsburgh, Bettis averaged over 20 carries per game 5 times. Parker is the first unquestioned #1 back they've had going into a season since then, but I just don't see them doing that with him.

if any running back averages 18 carries per game.. it is still 288 carries for the season... assume his YPC average drops from 4.7 to 4.5 .. it would still be 1296 rushing yards..

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I see a slight uptick in Parker's numbers this year, but only that - slight.  A lot of people are going to be sky high on Parker because of Bettis' retirement, but I will proffer a few reasons why my expectations are somewhat tempered.

1) Duce Staley.  Yeah, I know, he's always hurt.  However, he has been more effective than Bettis in the short yardage and feature back roles over the last two years in terms of yards per carry and TD percentage.  The Steelers kept him on the roster for a reason - he's a great between-the-tackles runner when healthy, and at the salary he's getting, they WILL use him to lighten the load on Parker.

2) Cedric Humes - The Steelers just drafted a goal-line hammer.  With Humes there, even if they lose Staley for an extended period of time, Parker is not going to get many looks inside the 5 against stacked defenses.  He's going to have to continue to count on longer TD runs.

3) Parker wears down.  Many games last year, Cowher pulled him from the game when the Steelers got leads late.  Often, Parker was relieved to be out of the game, as he gets tired in the 4th quarter when he's had a lot of work, and while not as small as many think, is a much better back when he's not getting pummeled 20-25 times per game.  The Steelers want to keep those legs fresh (see : Superbowl XL) so that he can make game-changing plays.  They won't wear him down.

Bettis got a lot of carries late last year, as it was his swan song, and everyone wanted to see him go out on top.  I think Parker will absorb some of those carries this year, but the Steelers are going to want to limit him to about 15-20 carries a game, rather than 22-25, since they have a guy in Staley that they can beat up on and spare Parker a bit.  I do think you'll see Parker get targeted a bit more in the passing game, as he is lethal in the open field, and the Steelers may try to get him the ball in space more often, wherre he can get behind a wall of blockers, make plays with his speed, and not absorb a ton of punishment.  Don't expect huge receiving numbers though, as the Steelers traditionally do not throw often to the RBs.

Projections :

288 carries, 1292 yards, 5 TDs / 24 rec.  293 yards, 1 TD

Looks to me like a very good RB3/capable RB2 with upside and a likely 3rd round pick in redrafts.

How much of the wearing down last year was due to the fact that he was not supposed to be the RB1 going into 2005? He was a COP type back and got thrust into the lineup, remember that it was a question mark as to who would start week 1. Staley was supposed to be the guy, not Parker.

Also, it is funny that people mention that Parker is not a 20-25 carry per game back when only 8 RBs got over 20 carries per game. That is 24 teams that did not have a 20 carry per game RB. I figured it out before and Parker averaged about 18 carries a game in games where he played the whole game and topped 20 carries 5 times. I would be very interested to see what Pittsburgh/Parker's training regimen is for Parker, i.e. if they are gearing him up to be RB1, unlike last year.

I am very happy (I drafted him in the 15th round last year, so I can keep him for a 14th) that only Humes got drafted this year because like in Dominick Davis' position, it was kind of a vote of confidence in Parker being the main RB again.

As for totals, I would predict 1600 total yards and 8 total TDs. This would put him at RB9 based on FBG's 2005 rankings, which isn't a huge leap from his actual 2005 ranking at RB15. He was also only 1 point behind McGahee at RB13 and virtually tied with Droughns at RB14.

This would be applicable if we were talking about most other teams, but Pittsburgh runs so much, that even getting 70% of the carries makes you a 20+ carries per game back. In his 6 years as full-time starter with Pittsburgh, Bettis averaged over 20 carries per game 5 times. Parker is the first unquestioned #1 back they've had going into a season since then, but I just don't see them doing that with him.

if any running back averages 18 carries per game.. it is still 288 carries for the season... assume his YPC average drops from 4.7 to 4.5 .. it would still be 1296 rushing yards..

I projected 288 carries, 1292 yards.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Downside = Repeat of last year

Upside = Take some of Bettis carries/TDs and/or become a little more involved in the passing game

 

[Bankerguy]

I have viistied this thread prolly 10 times...everytime I go to post a projection I can't do it.

So here it goes......I predict..........

Still undecided....will be back later. Still too much going on in Pittsburgh.

 

[stbugs]

I see a slight uptick in Parker's numbers this year, but only that - slight.  A lot of people are going to be sky high on Parker because of Bettis' retirement, but I will proffer a few reasons why my expectations are somewhat tempered.

1) Duce Staley.  Yeah, I know, he's always hurt.  However, he has been more effective than Bettis in the short yardage and feature back roles over the last two years in terms of yards per carry and TD percentage.  The Steelers kept him on the roster for a reason - he's a great between-the-tackles runner when healthy, and at the salary he's getting, they WILL use him to lighten the load on Parker.

2) Cedric Humes - The Steelers just drafted a goal-line hammer.  With Humes there, even if they lose Staley for an extended period of time, Parker is not going to get many looks inside the 5 against stacked defenses.  He's going to have to continue to count on longer TD runs.

3) Parker wears down.  Many games last year, Cowher pulled him from the game when the Steelers got leads late.  Often, Parker was relieved to be out of the game, as he gets tired in the 4th quarter when he's had a lot of work, and while not as small as many think, is a much better back when he's not getting pummeled 20-25 times per game.  The Steelers want to keep those legs fresh (see : Superbowl XL) so that he can make game-changing plays.  They won't wear him down.

Bettis got a lot of carries late last year, as it was his swan song, and everyone wanted to see him go out on top.  I think Parker will absorb some of those carries this year, but the Steelers are going to want to limit him to about 15-20 carries a game, rather than 22-25, since they have a guy in Staley that they can beat up on and spare Parker a bit.  I do think you'll see Parker get targeted a bit more in the passing game, as he is lethal in the open field, and the Steelers may try to get him the ball in space more often, wherre he can get behind a wall of blockers, make plays with his speed, and not absorb a ton of punishment.  Don't expect huge receiving numbers though, as the Steelers traditionally do not throw often to the RBs.

Projections :

288 carries, 1292 yards, 5 TDs / 24 rec.  293 yards, 1 TD

Looks to me like a very good RB3/capable RB2 with upside and a likely 3rd round pick in redrafts.

How much of the wearing down last year was due to the fact that he was not supposed to be the RB1 going into 2005? He was a COP type back and got thrust into the lineup, remember that it was a question mark as to who would start week 1. Staley was supposed to be the guy, not Parker.

Also, it is funny that people mention that Parker is not a 20-25 carry per game back when only 8 RBs got over 20 carries per game. That is 24 teams that did not have a 20 carry per game RB. I figured it out before and Parker averaged about 18 carries a game in games where he played the whole game and topped 20 carries 5 times. I would be very interested to see what Pittsburgh/Parker's training regimen is for Parker, i.e. if they are gearing him up to be RB1, unlike last year.

I am very happy (I drafted him in the 15th round last year, so I can keep him for a 14th) that only Humes got drafted this year because like in Dominick Davis' position, it was kind of a vote of confidence in Parker being the main RB again.

As for totals, I would predict 1600 total yards and 8 total TDs. This would put him at RB9 based on FBG's 2005 rankings, which isn't a huge leap from his actual 2005 ranking at RB15. He was also only 1 point behind McGahee at RB13 and virtually tied with Droughns at RB14.

This would be applicable if we were talking about most other teams, but Pittsburgh runs so much, that even getting 70% of the carries makes you a 20+ carries per game back. In his 6 years as full-time starter with Pittsburgh, Bettis averaged over 20 carries per game 5 times. Parker is the first unquestioned #1 back they've had going into a season since then, but I just don't see them doing that with him.

Damn, a 17 day lagtime on response. Maybe you should get your credit in order so we can have livelier discussions. Anyway, I don't think you answered my main question which is that Parker was not training in the 2004 off-season to be the #1 RB, it was Staley's job, so do you think that he wore down because of that? I remember the threads about him losing weight, etc. and I do think that he probably trained to be the COP back with maybe a handful of carries and ended up getting a lot more than anyone expected.

 

[Kiddnets]

Forgive the bump of this old thread - better than starting another IMO - good stuff in here

With camp just about to start it looks like the job belongs to Willie. Doubtful that they add another primary back at this point.

So does it look like Parker between the 10's and Duce inside? I traded for him in a 14 team auction league where his price is probably equivalent to a #3 RB. When traded for him I was shocked at so much negativity. I view him as a Tiki type player - replaced at the GL but will get his chances. I think duce is much less of a threat then Bus.

I am thinking of signing him for 2 years at a #3 RB salary - am I nuts? This year I have him behind Lamont and S Jax but next year I would count on him as a #2 RB - can he be that with more development?

 

[chocolate bomber]

Biggidy bump.

 

[Joe T]

A lot of good posts in this thread.

It's odd that everyone in here had WP in roughly the same yardage range and that is about where he will end up... maybe slightly higher.

Where everyone underestimated WP was on TD's. I didn't see anyone near 14 total TD's, but those are harder to predict.

Still a good job of projecting WP by everyone in this thread.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I was really wrong about FWP.

No wonder NFL teams are reluctant to draft RBs in the 1st when you can find gems like this in the later rounds.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

A lot of good posts in this thread.It's odd that everyone in here had WP in roughly the same yardage range and that is about where he will end up... maybe slightly higher.Where everyone underestimated WP was on TD's. I didn't see anyone near 14 total TD's, but those are harder to predict.Still a good job of projecting WP by everyone in this thread.

As soon as I saw Staley in preseason and then Cowher threw his weight behind FWP for the GL carries rather than Humes, I gave him a big bump in TDs. I had him penciled in for 9-10 scores on draft day and had him targeted in the middle of round 2, but he went at #11 overall. Even with that bump, I still underestimated him, and the extent to which the Steelers would use him.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I was really wrong about FWP.No wonder NFL teams are reluctant to draft RBs in the 1st when you can find gems like this in the later rounds.

I dont even think Willie was drafted

 

[pfalvey]

I was really wrong about FWP.No wonder NFL teams are reluctant to draft RBs in the 1st when you can find gems like this in the later rounds.

I dont even think Willie was drafted

Your instincts are correct, he was a non-drafted rookie free-agent.

 

[corpcow]

He may have helped get me there, but those 29 yards and 1 fumble in the championship game sure hurt