Player Spotlight: Willie Parker (2 Viewers)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Willie Parker Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[BLOX]

Tough one!

270 Carries, 1150 Yards, 9 TDs

35 Rec, 310 Yards, 1 TD

2 fumbles, 1 lost

 

[shadyridr]

I think he takes a slight hit in carries which will essentially hurt his numbers. I think the Steelers love him as their RB but they realize he took a pounding last year and dont wanna run him into the ground. Najeh will steal some carries but not goalline TDs since Parker proved he could handle that roll last year. The thing about Parker is you almost have to sit him against great run defenses cuz he struggles against them. I wouldnt label him a stud RB and Id say hes a bottom end RB1 this year.

1300 yds, 9 tds, 240 yds rec, 2 tds

 

[Thunderchicken]

I think he takes a slight hit in carries which will essentially hurt his numbers. I think the Steelers love him as their RB but they realize he took a pounding last year and dont wanna run him into the ground. Najeh will steal some carries but not goalline TDs since Parker proved he could handle that roll last year. The thing about Parker is you almost have to sit him against great run defenses cuz he struggles against them. I wouldnt label him a stud RB and Id say hes a bottom end RB1 this year.1300 yds, 9 tds, 240 yds rec, 2 tds

FWP struggles mightily against top rate defeneses, so he is not a stud in the sense that you start him no matter the match up. If he is one of your starters, you have to be careful to play the match ups if you have a viable RB3. I would not be too confident with him as my RB1 unless I had two very good RB's are RB2 and RB3.

 

[Da Guru]

There is only one thing that concerns me about Parker, is having a new coach.

Given the chance Parker will be as good or better than last year, but will the new coach use him in the same manner? Or try to cut his load?

 

[Steel Mike Tomczak]

I think you will see more screens with 2 TE sets, his recieving numbers will be alot better

1400 Ru. yds. 10 tds 400 Rec. 3 TDs

 

[Sheriff66]

There is only one thing that concerns me about Parker, having a new coach.Given the chance Parker will be as good or better than last year, but will the new coach use him in the same manner? Or try to cut his load?

Tomlin stated you win football games by running the ball and stopping the run, FWP will get his this year...

 

[stbugs]

I think he takes a slight hit in carries which will essentially hurt his numbers. I think the Steelers love him as their RB but they realize he took a pounding last year and dont wanna run him into the ground. Najeh will steal some carries but not goalline TDs since Parker proved he could handle that roll last year. The thing about Parker is you almost have to sit him against great run defenses cuz he struggles against them. I wouldnt label him a stud RB and Id say hes a bottom end RB1 this year.1300 yds, 9 tds, 240 yds rec, 2 tds

FWP struggles mightily against top rate defeneses, so he is not a stud in the sense that you start him no matter the match up. If he is one of your starters, you have to be careful to play the match ups if you have a viable RB3. I would not be too confident with him as my RB1 unless I had two very good RB's are RB2 and RB3.

I understand that Parker has struggled, but last year he had 3 terrible games, 2 against Baltimore and 1 against Jacksonville. In those 3 games, the Pittsburgh offense scored a grand total of 7 points. Sure, some of that was Parker, but the whole team looked terrible, especially in the 2 games against Baltimore.I will be interested to see how having Roethlisberger healthy in the off season will have an effect. If Pittsburgh, the team, can play 2007 at levels like they did in 2004/2005, I have a feeling Parker might not struggle that badly against top defenses. Hey even LT last year had only 134 yards rushing on 39 carries and 0 TDs in back to back games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I don't think anyone would ever advise sitting LT against two top rushing defenses.

 

[Jason Wood]

There is only one thing that concerns me about Parker, having a new coach.Given the chance Parker will be as good or better than last year, but will the new coach use him in the same manner? Or try to cut his load?

Tomlin stated you win football games but running the ball and stopping the run, FWP will get his this year...

The Steelers were uncharacteristically middle of the pack a season ago in the running game. Their 469 attempts was only 15th in the league, down from 549 [1st in the league] and 618 [1st in the league] the prior seasons. I would be quite surprised to see Pittsburgh run less in aggregate in 2007 than they did in 2006.The other question, of course, is the balance of carries. Parker surprised many by taking on the lion's share of the workload. Parker accounted for 72% of the teams carries a year ago, which is at the higher end of the league.Did the Steelers bring in real competition for touches? They re-signed Davenport, but haven't added anyone else to the RB mix. That may change as the 2nd phase of free agency gets going but, for now, it looks like Parker need only stay healthy to have a 280-300 carry workload [with upside beyond that].I won't disagree with people who suggest Parker struggled against a few elite defense, but many backs struggle at times. Better to have him struggle against a defense you would expect [thus allowing you the chance to substitute your RB3 in his place] versus laying a goose egg on what should have been a fantastic match up.

 

[Byron_nyc]

FWP -- in 2005 one of the all-time great FFG's pre-season sleeper picks -- has gone in less than two years from an unknown, undrafted rookie free agent to a proven top five fantasy RB. Where does the wild ride stop? What is FWP's ceiling? Last year's 1494 rushing yards? Or does he go on to Tomlinson-Barber-SA land? Were his college coachs and the 31 teams that passed on him right, that he's just a speedster now in a great situation? Not much besides the regime has changed in Steelerville, so I take proven production over all else. In redraft, I think he is a value anywhere after spot 5, and you are not crazy if you take him higher -- just a true believer.

1400 yards/ 8 TDs / 200 yards receiving / 2 TDs

 

[TheFanatic]

I think the new regime is going to impact Parker. I think they will give more carries to Davenport. The Colts just won the SB with a 2 back rotation. Teams are taking notice of this and I think the Steelers are one of those teams. I think PArker may even fall out of the top 10 this year...

 

[mbuehner]

Parker was the #5 RB in fantasy last year, that has to be remembered. 1720 all purpose yards and 16 tds will get you in that 4-7 tier every time. The cool thing about Parker is that he isnt a grinder that needs the 20 carries a game to be successful. Cutting back his touches 15 or 20% wouldnt likely cut his production an equivalent amount, because he is such a dynamic player. If the Steelers with their lighter schedule can generate any kind of non-Parker offense, FWP might lose some touches but gain some TDs.

Parker has built up a pretty nice track record of success at this point. Yes, his trouble against stout defenses is worrisome, but it is also correct that only a few select backs in the league ignore matchups. Parker isnt one of them. But he is very good at what he does well. The most important question FWP answered last year was his goalline ability. He handled 21 of 30 carries inside the 5 for 10 TDs, plus a receiving TD. Thats 11 out of the 18 Steeler touchdowns inside the 5. He is their goalline back, and that is money for a Pittsburgh player.

298 carries, 1370y, 12td

36 rec, 285y, 2td

 

[mbuehner]

And fyi, Najah Davenport has never had more than 71 carries in a season. I cant think of a better guy to have 'stealing' carries. He won't do much more than provide the occasional breather- and better yet he is a terrible goalline back. Last year he had 5 carries for -7 yards inside the 5. In his career he's only carried 12 times for 2 yards and 4 tds. Thats 33% td/carry, FWP is about 45%.

 

[Steel Mike Tomczak]

And fyi, Najah Davenport has never had more than 71 carries in a season. I cant think of a better guy to have 'stealing' carries. He won't do much more than provide the occasional breather- and better yet he is a terrible goalline back. Last year he had 5 carries for -7 yards inside the 5. In his career he's only carried 12 times for 2 yards and 4 tds. Thats 33% td/carry, FWP is about 45%.

Davenport sucks. Can't believe they signed him again. He looked o.k. in garbage time, but when it counts, he gets stuffed like a Thanksgiving turkey.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think the new regime is going to impact Parker. I think they will give more carries to Davenport. The Colts just won the SB with a 2 back rotation. Teams are taking notice of this and I think the Steelers are one of those teams. I think PArker may even fall out of the top 10 this year...

I would agree if Pitt had added a RB during the draft, but Davenport is no risk to his touches. 1400 yds.10 td30 catches

 

[Londo]

Parker is one of those guys who will likely be consistently underrated for a large part of his career (I am thinking Tiki Barber from a few years ago here).

Every time he has been given the opportunity to produce, he has done so.

1650 total yards, 14 TDs. Catches will wildly depend on the new offensive structure.

eta: forgot to include the receiving yards in my total.

 

[softball]

Parker is a stud with fresh young legs, having carried the rock 337 times in 2006 can only be a better back for his experience.

He gets a soft schedule this season playing the NFC West AND misses a second game against the Ravens in week 17.

1450 rushing yards 40 receptions for 350 yards and 13 TDs

 

[Jercules]

Parker was the #5 RB in fantasy last year, that has to be remembered. 1720 all purpose yards and 16 tds will get you in that 4-7 tier every time. The cool thing about Parker is that he isnt a grinder that needs the 20 carries a game to be successful. Cutting back his touches 15 or 20% wouldnt likely cut his production an equivalent amount, because he is such a dynamic player. If the Steelers with their lighter schedule can generate any kind of non-Parker offense, FWP might lose some touches but gain some TDs.

Parker has built up a pretty nice track record of success at this point. Yes, his trouble against stout defenses is worrisome, but it is also correct that only a few select backs in the league ignore matchups. Parker isnt one of them. But he is very good at what he does well. The most important question FWP answered last year was his goalline ability. He handled 21 of 30 carries inside the 5 for 10 TDs, plus a receiving TD. Thats 11 out of the 18 Steeler touchdowns inside the 5. He is their goalline back, and that is money for a Pittsburgh player.

298 carries, 1370y, 12td

36 rec, 285y, 2td

Also, kudos to whoever mentioned Parker as the new Tiki Barber, that's exactly who I'd compare him to fantasywise.

 

[KING]

i would agree that FWP seems to be underrated alot. although his numbers dictate it, i've never quite been able to see him as an RB1. i just don't trust him as that. i do see him putting up decent #'s this year though.

320 1350 4.2 11 and 35 270 7.7 1

 

[Trey]

i would agree that FWP seems to be underrated alot. although his numbers dictate it, i've never quite been able to see him as an RB1. i just don't trust him as that. i do see him putting up decent #'s this year though.320 1350 4.2 11 and 35 270 7.7 1

But see, those "decent" numbers are good enough for around RB9-10, which is in fact an RB1 on any team... especially with the fact that he is so consistently underrated, you have to think there are some drafts where he could potentially be falling to the front end of Round 2, making some team very very happy.

 

[shadyridr]

i would agree that FWP seems to be underrated alot. although his numbers dictate it, i've never quite been able to see him as an RB1. i just don't trust him as that. i do see him putting up decent #'s this year though.320 1350 4.2 11 and 35 270 7.7 1

I agree. He is a definite RB1 but I dont think Id put him in stud status where I would start him no matter who he plays. There's probably only about 5-6 RBs I would label as studs.

 

[Franknbeans]

I refuse to doubt Willie Parker until he has a bad season. He's the real deal and Tomlin will recognize that.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Willile Parker is an excellent running back playing on a team that loves to run the football. He demonstrated speed, power and the ability to catch the football last season. There is no reason to think he can't duplicate what he did last season.

1400 yards

12td's

30 receptions for 220 yards and 2 td's

Another monster year for FWP

 

[laxiepoo]

There is only one thing that concerns me about Parker, is having a new coach.Given the chance Parker will be as good or better than last year, but will the new coach use him in the same manner? Or try to cut his load?

He didn't just lose his coach, he lost his OC too. I worry that the new head coach will spend a lot of time and effort trying to change to a 4-3 from a 3-4, and not emphasize the offense enough. They've already said it's going to be more of a committee approach in their backfield. I think Whisenhunt's departure is a significant impact. Though Arians (the new OC) has been in the Steelers system for years, is he creative enough to fill Whisenhunt's shoes?Pittsburgh has a favorable schedule though, so that's a plus. Only 7 tough matchups, including the usual 2 with Baltimore.Bottom line, I'm a little down on Willie Parker right now. I love his talent. I'm worried about his situation. Generally talent overcomes bad situations, but time will tell. New coaches are a always scary.Rushing: 295 / 1225 / 10Receiving: 7 / 125 / 1

 

[LTsharks]

Parker is a stud with fresh young legs, having carried the rock 337 times in 2006 can only be a better back for his experience.

He gets a soft schedule this season playing the NFC West AND misses a second game against the Ravens in week 17.

1450 rushing yards 40 receptions for 350 yards and 13 TDs

Probably doesn't change his projections for the full season, but it is nice for the fantasy season since he went 23 carries / 51 yards combined in two games vs the Ravens last year. Nice to know he will only see them 1 time during the fantasy season.

 

[KING]

Parker is a stud with fresh young legs, having carried the rock 337 times in 2006 can only be a better back for his experience.

He gets a soft schedule this season playing the NFC West AND misses a second game against the Ravens in week 17.

1450 rushing yards 40 receptions for 350 yards and 13 TDs

Probably doesn't change his projections for the full season, but it is nice for the fantasy season since he went 23 carries / 51 yards combined in two games vs the Ravens last year. Nice to know he will only see them 1 time during the fantasy season.

unless your championship is week 17

 

[mbuehner]

They've already said it's going to be more of a committee approach in their backfield.

But i just dont see how this will be possible with their current roster. Steelers RBs rushed 415 times last season (which is a little on the low side, theyve average 450/season over the last 5 years).

Lets split the difference and say they rush 430 times.

Dave Kreider averages about 4 carries per year, maybe they will start handing the ball to the fullback more- lets give him 2 carries a game and call it a break out year for 32 rushes.

John Kuhn carried the ball twice last season, they dont seem to think he's going to be a factor, but lets give him 30 carries just for kicks.

Verron Haynes is unemployed, so the Steelers are carrying 3 tailbacks and 2 fullbacks thus far.

That leaves about 365 carries to split between the oft injured and sucky Davenport, and FWP. If Davenport has a career best and holds up to carry the ball 73 times, Parker still gets 292 carries. Good enough for 1300 yards at his clip.

If they really want a true RBBC, the Steelers sure havent seemed to assemble the personel for it to date.

 

[redman]

There is only one thing that concerns me about Parker, is having a new coach.Given the chance Parker will be as good or better than last year, but will the new coach use him in the same manner? Or try to cut his load?

315/1355/11 30/225/2

 

[H.K.]

They've already said it's going to be more of a committee approach in their backfield.

But i just dont see how this will be possible with their current roster. Steelers RBs rushed 415 times last season (which is a little on the low side, theyve average 450/season over the last 5 years).

Lets split the difference and say they rush 430 times.

Dave Kreider averages about 4 carries per year, maybe they will start handing the ball to the fullback more- lets give him 2 carries a game and call it a break out year for 32 rushes.

John Kuhn carried the ball twice last season, they dont seem to think he's going to be a factor, but lets give him 30 carries just for kicks.

Verron Haynes is unemployed, so the Steelers are carrying 3 tailbacks and 2 fullbacks thus far.

That leaves about 365 carries to split between the oft injured and sucky Davenport, and FWP. If Davenport has a career best and holds up to carry the ball 73 times, Parker still gets 292 carries. Good enough for 1300 yards at his clip.

If they really want a true RBBC, the Steelers sure havent seemed to assemble the personel for it to date.

This guy gets it. FWP is the only game in town for the Steelers. Not sure who else they could add that would cut into his PT, because FA pickings at the RB spot are pretty slim. That leaves Davenport & Kuhn and they sure aren't a threat to cut into his numbers.IIRC Tomlin may spread the formation more this season, with Parker's speed that could lead to some pretty big gains when he gets to the second level.

As long as he's healthy, Parker is Top 10 in any format.

300 for 1300

35 for 300

11 TD's

 

[kensat30]

How can anyone project less than 10 TDs on the ground for Parker? That team is built around running the ball at the goalline, and they proved last year that Parker was their guy after Bettis retired. The guy bulked up to become an all around player instead of just a speed guy, and he was rewarded with a boatload of TDs. For that reason alone, I have to put the guy in my top5 at the RB position for this coming season.

330/1400/14, 25/200/1

 

[Thom Yorke]

Background/Profile: Ah, Fast Willie Parker, the pride of FBG. This site was a pioneer with respect to Mr. Parker, putting him on our radar long before most folks had even heard of the guy, and many a FBG enjoyed a distinct advantage over their competition in 2005 by snagging him in the later rounds of their draft and enjoying his rise to NFL stardom. Although the secret was out in 2006, Willie remained a bit underrated and rewarded his owners with a 1400+ yard campaign. What lies in store for Willie in 2007? Let's take a closer look:

The good:

In 2006, FWP exceeded his previous year's performance in virtually every statistical category, including carries, yardage, touchdowns, and receptions.
Parker demonstrated durability by carrying the ball over 330 times, dispelling the perception that he couldn't carry the load due to his (relatively) small frame.
Willie showed the ability to get it done at the goal line by punching in 10 scores from inside the 5.
He got better as the year went on, piling up 860 yards and 7 scores in the final 8 games of the season (4.9 ypc).The bad:

New head coach Mike Tomlin has stated that he wants to reduce Parker's workload: link Coachspeak that will be abandoned once the season starts? Perhaps, but worth considering.
The departure of Bill Cowher leaves some question as to whether the Steelers will be as committed to the run as in years past.
Parker isn't much of a threat in the passing game.
He can be a bit of a boom/bust guy, with 5 games of less than 60 yards rushing and two games of over 200 yards in 2006.Outlook: I do believe that Tomlin will cut back on Parker's carries, but not drastically so. This could actually be good, because a fresher Parker might be better able to rip off the big TD run. No matter what, this is Pittsburgh football, and they'll pound the rock. As a result, Parker will be a fine RB1 in virtually any league this season.

2007 Willie Parker Projection: 301 carries, 1,301 yards, 10 TD, 30 rec., 200 yards, 1 TD.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I was under the impression Parker could actually catch the football.

 

[sizzer55]

i think parker can catch. i really can't say for sure because he got so few opportunities. i think he is atleast an average reciever and might even be good at it. he just was automatically taken out on 3rd down almost all the time and the rarely threw to him otherwise.

 

[DAG]

Parker was the #5 RB in fantasy last year, that has to be remembered. 1720 all purpose yards and 16 tds will get you in that 4-7 tier every time. The cool thing about Parker is that he isnt a grinder that needs the 20 carries a game to be successful. Cutting back his touches 15 or 20% wouldnt likely cut his production an equivalent amount, because he is such a dynamic player. If the Steelers with their lighter schedule can generate any kind of non-Parker offense, FWP might lose some touches but gain some TDs.

This is a great point. I can't bring myself to get excited about Parker, for whatever reason. It's nothing scientific. But I do agree that this is a big plus for him. I think he is near the top of a group of dynamic RBs that are somewhat more RBBC proof than others (Norwood, MJD, Westbrook (who has proven this over time)).

 

[jurb26]

i think parker can catch. i really can't say for sure because he got so few opportunities. i think he is atleast an average reciever and might even be good at it. he just was automatically taken out on 3rd down almost all the time and the rarely threw to him otherwise.

Parker can catch just fine. He blocks like a wet paper bag is all and is a liability in 3rd down situations or known passing situation because of it. He could improve as blocking is something many RBs have troubles with when young.

 

[Traders2001]

I think he takes a slight hit in carries which will essentially hurt his numbers. I think the Steelers love him as their RB but they realize he took a pounding last year and dont wanna run him into the ground. Najeh will steal some carries but not goalline TDs since Parker proved he could handle that roll last year. The thing about Parker is you almost have to sit him against great run defenses cuz he struggles against them. I wouldnt label him a stud RB and Id say hes a bottom end RB1 this year.1300 yds, 9 tds, 240 yds rec, 2 tds

FWP struggles mightily against top rate defeneses, so he is not a stud in the sense that you start him no matter the match up. If he is one of your starters, you have to be careful to play the match ups if you have a viable RB3. I would not be too confident with him as my RB1 unless I had two very good RB's are RB2 and RB3.

Your right he only scored like 16Tds last season he is a RB 2 ..

 

[sizzer55]

jurb26 Posted Today, 05:36 PM Parker can catch just fine. He blocks like a wet paper bag is all and is a liability in 3rd down situations or known passing situation because of it. He could improve as blocking is something many RBs have troubles with when young. DAG Posted Today, 05:36 PM

that makes sense. i am thinking that his size might hurt him as a blocker as much or more than any other aspect of his game. when running the ball he is trying to avoid contact or minimize it to protect himself. i don't recall him running through or breaking too many tackles. as a blocker, he needs to try and initiate as much contact as he can with a 260 lb. guy coming at him full speed. i doubt it is very much fun for him. hopefully he can improve his blocking but i'm not too optimistic with his size.i am in a one player keeper league and i took fwp two years ago in the 13th round knowing he was only supposed to be a one week fill in with staley and bettis injured. sadly, parker was a better option for me than my other rb in week one! i really got lucky that staley never really came back and fwp was my keeper for last year and should be again this year. however, i do always have a bit of an uneasy feeling that his success could leave almost as fast as it arrived. i'm in a somewhat td heavy league and am dreading the moment if willie loses the goal line carries.

 

[4th&26]

Sorry to resurface this discussion, but what does everyone feel about the Barlow signing? and also How is a disgruntled Faneca affect this formula?

cheers

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Reportedly, Barlow has been playing the Duce Staley role in Pittsburgh so far: i.e. he's been standing around in sweats with hamstring problems during team workouts. I doubt he effects Parker's value in any way if Parker stays healthy all season. I think it's clear Parker is their primary ballcarrier, short-yardage included. Barlow, and especially Dookie, aren't likely going to infringe on his touches at the stripe as neither is particularly special in short yardage situations. Davenport's a decent 3rddown back and Barlow is disaster insurance if either of the top 2 backs are injured. At least that's how I see it as of today.

The OL in general is going to have a much greater effect on his production. Of course, last year Parker had a banged up Marvel Smith at LT, a less-than-normal-Faneca at LG, an imposter of Jeff Hartings at C, the ineffective Kendall Simmons at RG and the totally inconsitent Max Starks at RT. Add in a handful of games that, due to injury, had Willie Colon and Chris Kemoeatu getting PT and it's not like he had a primo situation in '06. A lot of the OLs troubles were in pass blocking, but several members of the line weren't up to their normal level blocking for the run either(Hartings being the primary culprit there, but he wasn't alone). Parker still produced.

I can't feature the line getting worse at pass blocking and they weren't exactly bottom of the barrel run-blocking anyway(just less dominating than you'd expect a Steeler OL to be). If they can improve even a little in the running game over last year you have to feel pretty good about Parker getting in the neighborhood of the rushing yardage he had in '06. His OC has been regurgitating the mantra about more 4WR and 2TE sets, in part to isolate Parker in more one-on-one matchups. If that is to be believed, and is played out in practice rather than just theory/coachspeak, he may even get a bit of an uptick in his receiving yardage. The rub for projecting Parker will be total TDs. Is he a safe bet for double digits? Probably. He's still on a team with a HC that has, so far, professed his intention on winning the time of possession battle every week by running the football. Is Parker a good bet for 15+ TDs again? That's where the OL play will come in. If they can play at least as well as they did a year ago, which shouldn't be tough, then he'll have his chances. If they degrade some, then anywhere in the 8-12 neighborhood wouldn't be out of the question either.

Faneca's contract thing may actually wind up being beneficial on the field(though not in the lockerroom). He feels he deserves a big pay day. The easiest way for him to get that would be to get back to his pre-2006 form and go to his 7th Pro Bowl. If he can do that, that's good for Parker. Or he could pout and suck. I guess we'll see.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

15 TD's for Willie Parker is highly unlikely for Parker to repeat next season. That stat was an anomoly. Bettis' best TD production in his career tallied 13. That shows that Parker is a good player, but that probability is he is not going to get 15 plus TD's again.

In 2005 only 3 rb's had a total of 15 TD's or more. Alexander, Larry Johnson and Tomlinson.

In 2006 4 RB's had a total of 15 TD's or more. Tomlinson, Johnson, Parker, and M. Barber.

15 TD's is not easy to accomplish. Running backs who are playing now who may have had that darling season and got 15 TD's but it is not easy to do.

D. Mcallister once

A. Green once

C. Portis once

F. Taylor once

W. Parker once

M. Barber once

S. Jackson not yet

T. Barber never

R. Johnson never

B. Westbrook never

Players who have done it more then once

E. James

L. Johnson

S. Alexander

Tomlinson

You have to be in the right system and a truly elite back to get 15 plus TD's more then one time.

I think 10-12 TD's is a fair projection for Parker. 8-10 Rushing and 2 receiving. And even 12 is not easy to do.

 

[sirfumblesalot]

And fyi, Najah Davenport has never had more than 71 carries in a season. I cant think of a better guy to have 'stealing' carries. He won't do much more than provide the occasional breather- and better yet he is a terrible goalline back. Last year he had 5 carries for -7 yards inside the 5. In his career he's only carried 12 times for 2 yards and 4 tds. Thats 33% td/carry, FWP is about 45%.

Davenport sucks. Can't believe they signed him again. He looked o.k. in garbage time, but when it counts, he gets stuffed like a Thanksgiving turkey.

I read the re-signing of Davenport as the Steelers being content with the status quo in terms of the running game. That being said they may go out and sign another back but if this arrangement didn't work for them last year they wouldn't have resigned Davenport.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

High Side - FWP faceoff

I outlined my case in the above link for Parker's 2006 numbers being closer to his floor than his ceiling for 2007. Consider that the Steelers mightily struggled and rendered Parker almost a non-factor in the handful of games where they got blown out. Big Ben's problems and Cowher's predictable offensive philosophy allowed teams to key on Parker. Consider that the offense is going to openup with a new commitment to spread formations, which create bigger running lanes, and a commitment to getting Parker more touches in space *drool* - anyone who saw what Willie could do with screen passes last year has to love this.

I think Willie has a legitimate chance to crack the top 3 this year.

 

[mbuehner]

15 TD's for Willie Parker is highly unlikely for Parker to repeat next season. That stat was an anomoly. Bettis' best TD production in his career tallied 13. That shows that Parker is a good player, but that probability is he is not going to get 15 plus TD's again.In 2005 only 3 rb's had a total of 15 TD's or more. Alexander, Larry Johnson and Tomlinson.In 2006 4 RB's had a total of 15 TD's or more. Tomlinson, Johnson, Parker, and M. Barber.15 TD's is not easy to accomplish. Running backs who are playing now who may have had that darling season and got 15 TD's but it is not easy to do.D. Mcallister onceA. Green onceC. Portis onceF. Taylor onceW. Parker onceM. Barber once S. Jackson not yetT. Barber neverR. Johnson neverB. Westbrook neverPlayers who have done it more then onceE. JamesL. JohnsonS. AlexanderTomlinsonYou have to be in the right system and a truly elite back to get 15 plus TD's more then one time. I think 10-12 TD's is a fair projection for Parker. 8-10 Rushing and 2 receiving. And even 12 is not easy to do.

Well, actually in 2006 there were 6 RBs with 15+ all purpose tds: Barber, Jackson, Johnson, Jones-Drew, Parker, Tomlinson.In 2005 there were indeed 3 (several seeming shoe ins missed games, but durability is obvsiously a big part of this equation)2004 there were 42003 there were 42002 there were 6Over the last 5 years the average number of backs scoring at least 15 TDs is 4.6.Basically, to be a top 5 back, you probably need to score about 15 TDs or have an ungodly amount of yards. I think anyone that supposes Parker will score 15TDs has him slotted to be a top 5 back again, so i dont know that you are saying anything except that Parker isnt likely to repeat his success. Durability is undoubtedly a factor here- but as they say injuries are pretty unpredictable. I dont know that the odds of picking another random top 10 caliber running back to put over Parker makes any sense, because that guy is just as likely not to play a full season and probably hasnt got the track record or the offense to justify the slot. I mean, if its really hard to do who do you choose instead? Somebody has to fill out your cheatsheet below LT2.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Sep 9 @Cleveland 1:00pm

Sep 16 Buffalo 1:00pm

Sep 23 San Francisco 1:00pm

Sep 30 @Arizona 4:15pm

Oct 7 Seattle 1:00pm

Week 6 BYE

Oct 21 @Denver 8:15pm

Oct 28 @Cincinnati 1:00pm

Nov 5 Baltimore 8:30pm

Nov 11 Cleveland 1:00pm

Nov 18 @N.Y. Jets 1:00pm

Nov 26 Miami 8:30pm

Dec 2 Cincinnati 8:15pm

Dec 9 @New England 1:00pm

Dec 16 Jacksonville 1:00pm

Dec 20 @St. Louis 8:15pm

Dec 30 @Baltimore 1:00pm

(Most leagues do not play week 17)

Last year at this time I thought Parker would be a huge bust. He proved me wrong. This year I think he is one of the more safe picks in the mid to late first round of fantasy drafts. He has a great schedule. He showed last year that he could put the ball in the endzone which gives him even more value. In redraft, fbg's scoring he should be selected 1.5-1.8. Willie Parker

Rushes:300

Yards: 1350

TDs: 12

He will be one player I look to target in this years draft

 

[RamMan]

I'm looking for a Top 5 finish from FWP this year - possibly a Top 3. He'll be my keeper in a 10-team auction league where we can keep one player at $10 higher than we paid the year before. He'll cost me $40 in a $200 cap league and I'll be VERY happy to spend 20% of my budget on FWP. If Barlow and Davenport are the only threats to steal touches from Parker, I'm gonna sleep very well at night this season.

300/1400/12

35/350/4

 

[Franknbeans]

Sorry to resurface this discussion, but what does everyone feel about the Barlow signing? and also How is a disgruntled Faneca affect this formula? cheers

I think this is Barlow's last chance to catch on in the NFL, period. Given that he hails from Pitt, this is a golden opportunity to play on a team that he always dreamed of playing for. That said, I just don't think the guy is very talented. If he survives training camp, I think he will be at best a change of pace back either on 3rd downs (taking away some of Verron's touches) or possibly be used down by the goalline along with Davenport who has trouble keeping healthy himself. As for Faneca, he'll be playing for a new contract this season so he has all the incentive to have his usual Pro-bowl caliber year. He won't be a distraction once training camp begins.

 

[On The Rocks]

He gets a soft schedule this season playing the NFC West AND misses a second game against the Ravens in week 17.

This is an excellent point that should be given extra consideration.

310 carries

1410 yards

15 TD

40 rec.

320 yards

1 TD

 

[BigRed]

It's hard to not like FWP this year. The coaching thing is a slight concern and he won't repeat last year, but it would be suprising if he didn't put up some healthy yds and double-digit TDs. Top 10 very likely...top 5, hard to say. IMO in that 5-8 range overall.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

If you think the Steelers will finish better than 8-8 hard not to see a repeat of last years numbers. Maybe a little more?

Top 3 ?

 

[zadok]

Gotta love the newest news item:

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Willie Parker said Monday between practices, "I want to do it all, I wouldn't be no running back if I say I want to come off the field in certain situations. I want to do all the situations." Parker's new HC Mike Tomlin and OC Bruce Arians are inclined to let him do it. "I like the fact he wants to be better," said Arians, "I don't ever want him on the bench unless he's tired."

Conservatively:

300/1400/12

35/300/2

Top 5 material.