Player that will out play their ADP (1 Viewer)

[GroveDiesel]

In my dynasty draft this year I was able to get these guys fairly cheap. QB's:J.P. Losman- he played in all 16 games last season and averaged only 26. 8 passes per game; there were 26 quarter backs who played in a minimum of 5 games that averaged better then that. There was however, only 10 of those quarter backs who averaged a higher competion percentage than Losman's 62.5 %. He finished as qb 15 last season and he will make a very nice qb 2 in 2 qb leagues and a good spot starter and bye week filler in qb 1 leagues with potential to be a QB 1 finishing as QB 11 or 12 by seasons end. Buffalo will/has to open up there offense a bit and Lynch will help them do that with his pass catching ability.

FBGs has his ADP as QB #21 right now. He'll easily better that. They're already talking about how they've opened up the offense more already this offseason and how the Bills are giving Losman more leeway to audible at the LoS. If the Bills can actually finish in the middle of the league for passing plays, Losman will be a top 10 QB pretty easily. The only leagues where his value may be less are ones where you're penalized heavily for fumbles. He fumbles way too much and I haven't heard too much talk about them working on that very real problem.

 

[redman]

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

At worst Scheffler splits receptions with Graham, sort of in the way that Clark and Pollard split up opportunities in two TE sets in Indy for a couple of years.

Lets step back in time, shall we........Tuesday, March 6

Denver reached an agreement Tuesday night with TE Daniel Graham on a five-year, $30 million contract that includes $15 million guaranteed.

Now let me see if I get this straight....... you two feel that 4 days into free agency Denver had Rod Smith take a pay cut and gave Graham a $30 million ($15 guarenteed) contract to split time with 2nd year, 18 career receptions TE Tony Scheffler........

Link to Daniel Graham's dominance as a receiving TE please. So in your world 2 TE formations haven't been invented yet? Perhaps you missed what Indianapolis did against an extremely good Cover-2 defense in the rain at the Super Bowl primarily out of that formation.

The answer is yes (and assuming Scheffler is healthy of course), there will be at worst a 60-40 split in receptions between those two IMHO. Graham is an excellent blocker but has dropped an awful lot of passes.

You don't give a good blocking TE $30 million ($15 guarenteed). I don't care if he's the best blocking TE in the league.That kind of money, he's going to be the primary TE in the offense.

Do you draft TE's in the 2nd round to be auxillary players? Look at Graham's contract numbers; they aren't prohibitively expensive, especially for one of the teams in the league that always is at the cap limit anyway, and especially for a team enjoying the benefits for the time being of Scheffler being on his rookie contract:

Graham, Daniel View Stats at Players Inc Site   Player Info Draft Info TE (#)  Year: 2002 Denver Broncos Round: 1 Aurora, CO Position: 21 Salary History 2007 600,000.00 2008 700,000.00 2009 3,200,000.00 2010 3,800,000.00 2011 4,200,000.00

Incidentally, I am a Scheffler owner . . . however the only team on which I own him I also have Graham.

 

[David Yudkin]

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

At worst Scheffler splits receptions with Graham, sort of in the way that Clark and Pollard split up opportunities in two TE sets in Indy for a couple of years.

Lets step back in time, shall we........Tuesday, March 6

Denver reached an agreement Tuesday night with TE Daniel Graham on a five-year, $30 million contract that includes $15 million guaranteed.

Now let me see if I get this straight....... you two feel that 4 days into free agency Denver had Rod Smith take a pay cut and gave Graham a $30 million ($15 guarenteed) contract to split time with 2nd year, 18 career receptions TE Tony Scheffler........

Link to Daniel Graham's dominance as a receiving TE please. So in your world 2 TE formations haven't been invented yet? Perhaps you missed what Indianapolis did against an extremely good Cover-2 defense in the rain at the Super Bowl primarily out of that formation.

The answer is yes (and assuming Scheffler is healthy of course), there will be at worst a 60-40 split in receptions between those two IMHO. Graham is an excellent blocker but has dropped an awful lot of passes.

You don't give a good blocking TE $30 million ($15 guarenteed). I don't care if he's the best blocking TE in the league.That kind of money, he's going to be the primary TE in the offense.

Just because they overpaid does not mean he turns into Shannon Sharpe. Graham has averaged 1.9 receptions, 22 receiving yards, and 0.27 TD per game over his career. That works out to 30 receptions, 352 receiving yards, and 4 TD over a full season. He should do better than that, but I wouldn't raise the bar a lot higher.

 

[David Yudkin]

In my dynasty draft this year I was able to get these guys fairly cheap. QB's:J.P. Losman- he played in all 16 games last season and averaged only 26. 8 passes per game; there were 26 quarter backs who played in a minimum of 5 games that averaged better then that. There was however, only 10 of those quarter backs who averaged a higher competion percentage than Losman's 62.5 %. He finished as qb 15 last season and he will make a very nice qb 2 in 2 qb leagues and a good spot starter and bye week filler in qb 1 leagues with potential to be a QB 1 finishing as QB 11 or 12 by seasons end. Buffalo will/has to open up there offense a bit and Lynch will help them do that with his pass catching ability.

FBGs has his ADP as QB #21 right now. He'll easily better that. They're already talking about how they've opened up the offense more already this offseason and how the Bills are giving Losman more leeway to audible at the LoS. If the Bills can actually finish in the middle of the league for passing plays, Losman will be a top 10 QB pretty easily. The only leagues where his value may be less are ones where you're penalized heavily for fumbles. He fumbles way too much and I haven't heard too much talk about them working on that very real problem.

So who other than Evans will be catching all these passes in Buffalo?

 

[GroveDiesel]

In my dynasty draft this year I was able to get these guys fairly cheap. QB's:J.P. Losman- he played in all 16 games last season and averaged only 26. 8 passes per game; there were 26 quarter backs who played in a minimum of 5 games that averaged better then that. There was however, only 10 of those quarter backs who averaged a higher competion percentage than Losman's 62.5 %. He finished as qb 15 last season and he will make a very nice qb 2 in 2 qb leagues and a good spot starter and bye week filler in qb 1 leagues with potential to be a QB 1 finishing as QB 11 or 12 by seasons end. Buffalo will/has to open up there offense a bit and Lynch will help them do that with his pass catching ability.

FBGs has his ADP as QB #21 right now. He'll easily better that. They're already talking about how they've opened up the offense more already this offseason and how the Bills are giving Losman more leeway to audible at the LoS. If the Bills can actually finish in the middle of the league for passing plays, Losman will be a top 10 QB pretty easily. The only leagues where his value may be less are ones where you're penalized heavily for fumbles. He fumbles way too much and I haven't heard too much talk about them working on that very real problem.

So who other than Evans will be catching all these passes in Buffalo?

IMO, by the end of the season it will be Parrish. But I think that the ball will be distributed around pretty evenly after Evans most of the season. I fully expect the Buffalo RBs to have 400-500 yards receiving as well. The Bills don't have any WR stars after Evans but they have a lot of pretty decent role players. Parrish is a great slot WR with tremendous downfield speed. Evans is a solid, although sometimes inconsistent, possession receiver. Price is a mix of the two of them. All 3 of them have a pretty decent catch percentage (Reed 71%, Price 64%, Evans 60%). The Bills simply did not throw the ball that much last season. Part of that was a conservative offensive philosophy and a large part of it was a terrible 3rd down conversion rate. One of the reasons the 3rd down conversion rate was so terrible is because Losman's completion percentage dropped on 3rd down. And McGahee was absolutely terrible on 3rd down. He averaged 3.1 yards per carry on 3rd down. A-Train averaged a slightly better (but still terrible) 3.4 yards per carry on 3rd down. If the Bills open up their offense and convert more 3rd downs, Losman should have a lot more pass attempts. And with those pass attempts, his fantasy numbers should climb as well. He had more fantasy points per pass attempt than guys like Bulger, Kitna, Brady and Favre last season.

 

[David Yudkin]

In my dynasty draft this year I was able to get these guys fairly cheap. QB's:J.P. Losman- he played in all 16 games last season and averaged only 26. 8 passes per game; there were 26 quarter backs who played in a minimum of 5 games that averaged better then that. There was however, only 10 of those quarter backs who averaged a higher competion percentage than Losman's 62.5 %. He finished as qb 15 last season and he will make a very nice qb 2 in 2 qb leagues and a good spot starter and bye week filler in qb 1 leagues with potential to be a QB 1 finishing as QB 11 or 12 by seasons end. Buffalo will/has to open up there offense a bit and Lynch will help them do that with his pass catching ability.

FBGs has his ADP as QB #21 right now. He'll easily better that. They're already talking about how they've opened up the offense more already this offseason and how the Bills are giving Losman more leeway to audible at the LoS. If the Bills can actually finish in the middle of the league for passing plays, Losman will be a top 10 QB pretty easily. The only leagues where his value may be less are ones where you're penalized heavily for fumbles. He fumbles way too much and I haven't heard too much talk about them working on that very real problem.

So who other than Evans will be catching all these passes in Buffalo?

IMO, by the end of the season it will be Parrish. But I think that the ball will be distributed around pretty evenly after Evans most of the season. I fully expect the Buffalo RBs to have 400-500 yards receiving as well. The Bills don't have any WR stars after Evans but they have a lot of pretty decent role players. Parrish is a great slot WR with tremendous downfield speed. Evans is a solid, although sometimes inconsistent, possession receiver. Price is a mix of the two of them. All 3 of them have a pretty decent catch percentage (Reed 71%, Price 64%, Evans 60%). The Bills simply did not throw the ball that much last season. Part of that was a conservative offensive philosophy and a large part of it was a terrible 3rd down conversion rate. One of the reasons the 3rd down conversion rate was so terrible is because Losman's completion percentage dropped on 3rd down. And McGahee was absolutely terrible on 3rd down. He averaged 3.1 yards per carry on 3rd down. A-Train averaged a slightly better (but still terrible) 3.4 yards per carry on 3rd down. If the Bills open up their offense and convert more 3rd downs, Losman should have a lot more pass attempts. And with those pass attempts, his fantasy numbers should climb as well. He had more fantasy points per pass attempt than guys like Bulger, Kitna, Brady and Favre last season.

I know this is getting away fromt he point of the thread, but by my count the receiving options on Buffalo past Evans as things stand now are . . .A-Train and Lynch out of the backfieldPrice, Reed, and ParrishRoyal and Everett at TEI would still be worried that an increase in attempts to vanilla receiving options may not yield optimum results. Losman did very well given the circumstances last year, but IMO his ceiling is limited at this point. As we should all know by this point, there really is not a ton of difference fantasy wise between say the QB8 and the QB18. While that may not be the exact line in the sand, the point is that there are about 10 guys that seemingly end up in a pack right near each other and they all are worth about the same in my book (and I would put Losman in that group).He ranked 14th last year and with good health to him (and poor heath to other QB), he certainly could do as well again this year or better. I still think he is not going to vault up into the big producing QBs though.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I know this is getting away fromt he point of the thread, but by my count the receiving options on Buffalo past Evans as things stand now are . . .A-Train and Lynch out of the backfieldPrice, Reed, and ParrishRoyal and Everett at TEI would still be worried that an increase in attempts to vanilla receiving options may not yield optimum results. Losman did very well given the circumstances last year, but IMO his ceiling is limited at this point. As we should all know by this point, there really is not a ton of difference fantasy wise between say the QB8 and the QB18. While that may not be the exact line in the sand, the point is that there are about 10 guys that seemingly end up in a pack right near each other and they all are worth about the same in my book (and I would put Losman in that group).He ranked 14th last year and with good health to him (and poor heath to other QB), he certainly could do as well again this year or better. I still think he is not going to vault up into the big producing QBs though.

If you, and everyone else, didn't feel that way, then he probably wouldn't outperform his ADP, now would he? I think that people sell Losman short based on lack of pre-draft hype on him and because the Bills have been such a poor team. But Losman took a huge step forward last year and this season will be his first season with the same OC and same basic offense from the previous year. His leadership skills have improved and the game has clearly slowed down for him.Now, I'm not saying that Losman is Tom Brady, but the Patriots haven't had great receiving options for several years and yet Brady has done just fine fantasy-wise. I'd take Buffalo's 2007 WRs over the Patriot WRs in 2006, 2005 and 2004.But again, if everyone agreed with me then his ADP would be higher and I wouldn't be saying that I think he'll outperform his ADP.