TripItUp
Footballguy
QB #5: Kyler Murray
RB #16: James Conner
WR #7: Deebo Samuel
TE #4: George Kittle
FantasyPros Consensus ADPs
RB #16: James Conner
WR #7: Deebo Samuel
TE #4: George Kittle
FantasyPros Consensus ADPs
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Players Most Likely to NOT Return Value at ADP (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
QB - Hurts, (55) - everyone’s darling to take a leap doesn’t live up to the hype, finishes closer to 10 than 1.
WR - Kupp (1.05) - the 29 y/o played his first full season in 2021. I’m skeptical he stays on the field for 17 again. Worse. I suspect he’ll have some sort of nagging injury that dogs him for a chunk of the season.
RB - CMC (1.02) - heavy workload on a small-ish frame. It’s déjà vu all over again in 2023, every expert and home league manager talking themselves into him with nary an injury discount, even after 2 years of boo boos. Like Kupp, won’t be a bust but will miss enough time to be unworthy of 1.01-1.02
TE - kyle Pitts (31) - bad OL, worse QB than last year. Could live up to his mid-3rd ADP but I’d rather wait. Larger risk than 2021 in the 5th
Disclaimer: I could be wrong.
WR - Kupp (1.05) - the 29 y/o played his first full season in 2021. I’m skeptical he stays on the field for 17 again. Worse. I suspect he’ll have some sort of nagging injury that dogs him for a chunk of the season.
RB - CMC (1.02) - heavy workload on a small-ish frame. It’s déjà vu all over again in 2023, every expert and home league manager talking themselves into him with nary an injury discount, even after 2 years of boo boos. Like Kupp, won’t be a bust but will miss enough time to be unworthy of 1.01-1.02
TE - kyle Pitts (31) - bad OL, worse QB than last year. Could live up to his mid-3rd ADP but I’d rather wait. Larger risk than 2021 in the 5th
Disclaimer: I could be wrong.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Reply
Your boy Pitts!
QB - Hurts, (55) - everyone’s darling to take a leap doesn’t live up to the hype, finishes closer to 10 than 1.
WR - Kupp (1.05) - the 29 y/o played his first full season in 2021. I’m skeptical he stays on the field for 17 again. Worse. I suspect he’ll have some sort of nagging injury that dogs him for a chunk of the season.
RB - CMC (1.02) - heavy workload on a small-ish frame. It’s déjà vu all over again in 2023, every expert and home league manager talking themselves into him with nary an injury discount, even after 2 years of boo boos. Like Kupp, won’t be a bust but will miss enough time to be unworthy of 1.01-1.02
TE - kyle Pitts (31) - bad OL, worse QB than last year. Could live up to his mid-3rd ADP but I’d rather wait. Larger risk than 2021 in the 5th
Disclaimer: I could be wrong.
Your boy Pitts!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I love him like I birthed him myself.
I love him as a dynasty hold until ‘23 when the Falcons get things figured out
I think last year will be his floor this year. That should be good enough (with his upside) to warrant picking him at ADP or a bit later if/when he falls.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A bit laterx sure.
I’ve seen him late 2nd/early 3rd and I’m out at that price.
A lot of ambiguity until I see that team play. Respect to those who took him mid 3rd, I hope he pays off.
I got him 4.04 in a 14 teamer and at 4.06 in an 8 Teamer (I know but a buddy was desperate last minute for another team). I am fine at that price.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would be in at both those prices.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Akers
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
inclined to agree, but a lot more about this one will be known in about ~27 hours.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Mine would have to be Ekeler as a top 5 back.
I just have a feeling.
Reduced touches because the chargers are winning big. Mixing in other backs more than last year. Insert overused “Touchdown regression” buzzword here.
No real facts to back it up. Just what my magic 8 ball told me.
I just have a feeling.
Reduced touches because the chargers are winning big. Mixing in other backs more than last year. Insert overused “Touchdown regression” buzzword here.
No real facts to back it up. Just what my magic 8 ball told me.
Last edited:
TripItUp
Footballguy
I almost selected him. He's not an ideal size to carry the kind of volume he did last year.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
A potential big issue with CMC, is that given his history, I could see the coaches limiting his reps to keep him healthy. That seems like a reasonable plan.QB - Hurts, (55) - everyone’s darling to take a leap doesn’t live up to the hype, finishes closer to 10 than 1.
WR - Kupp (1.05) - the 29 y/o played his first full season in 2021. I’m skeptical he stays on the field for 17 again. Worse. I suspect he’ll have some sort of nagging injury that dogs him for a chunk of the season.
RB - CMC (1.02) - heavy workload on a small-ish frame. It’s déjà vu all over again in 2023, every expert and home league manager talking themselves into him with nary an injury discount, even after 2 years of boo boos. Like Kupp, won’t be a bust but will miss enough time to be unworthy of 1.01-1.02
TE - kyle Pitts (31) - bad OL, worse QB than last year. Could live up to his mid-3rd ADP but I’d rather wait. Larger risk than 2021 in the 5th
Disclaimer: I could be wrong.
Deamon
Footballguy
Isn't 4.06 in an 8 teamer pick 29? Meaning 3.05 in a 12 teamer?
Interesting you're in an 8 teamer an 14 teamer... and he went mid 4th in both. Seems like a tad early in the 8 teamer and fantastic value (46th pick wow!) in the 14 teamer.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Seems very due for TD regression as well.
habsfan
Footballguy
Don't these top 5 picks technically have nowhere to go but down (value wise)?
I think Lamb is an interesting choice, value wise. Seems to be a big step up built into his redraft price. When you work your way down the cheatsheet from 1.01, he's one of the first names that hasn't already done it before.
I think Lamb is an interesting choice, value wise. Seems to be a big step up built into his redraft price. When you work your way down the cheatsheet from 1.01, he's one of the first names that hasn't already done it before.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I took CMC at 1.04 and don’t really like it. He burned me last year so I know what I’m getting into. I hope the coaches do reduce his touches so that I get 3/4 of a season from him. A full season is unrealistic. The kid will get dinged.A potential big issue with CMC, is that given his history, I could see the coaches limiting his reps to keep him healthy. That seems like a reasonable plan.QB - Hurts, (55) - everyone’s darling to take a leap doesn’t live up to the hype, finishes closer to 10 than 1.
WR - Kupp (1.05) - the 29 y/o played his first full season in 2021. I’m skeptical he stays on the field for 17 again. Worse. I suspect he’ll have some sort of nagging injury that dogs him for a chunk of the season.
RB - CMC (1.02) - heavy workload on a small-ish frame. It’s déjà vu all over again in 2023, every expert and home league manager talking themselves into him with nary an injury discount, even after 2 years of boo boos. Like Kupp, won’t be a bust but will miss enough time to be unworthy of 1.01-1.02
TE - kyle Pitts (31) - bad OL, worse QB than last year. Could live up to his mid-3rd ADP but I’d rather wait. Larger risk than 2021 in the 5th
Disclaimer: I could be wrong.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Also potentially losing GL to Foreman for the same reason.A potential big issue with CMC, is that given his history, I could see the coaches limiting his reps to keep him healthy. That seems like a reasonable plan.QB - Hurts, (55) - everyone’s darling to take a leap doesn’t live up to the hype, finishes closer to 10 than 1.
WR - Kupp (1.05) - the 29 y/o played his first full season in 2021. I’m skeptical he stays on the field for 17 again. Worse. I suspect he’ll have some sort of nagging injury that dogs him for a chunk of the season.
RB - CMC (1.02) - heavy workload on a small-ish frame. It’s déjà vu all over again in 2023, every expert and home league manager talking themselves into him with nary an injury discount, even after 2 years of boo boos. Like Kupp, won’t be a bust but will miss enough time to be unworthy of 1.01-1.02
TE - kyle Pitts (31) - bad OL, worse QB than last year. Could live up to his mid-3rd ADP but I’d rather wait. Larger risk than 2021 in the 5th
Disclaimer: I could be wrong.
Chase & Jefferson might yet have another gear.
Last edited:
wgoldsph
Footballguy
CMC - an older rb with two years of extensive injuries and nothing else on the offense? Do not draft unless you can win your league in weeks 1-3.
Henry - another older rb who finally broke down last year with nothing else on offense? Do not draft.
Najee Harris - this is more for redraft. Last year is basically his ceiling. If Tomlin is smart he'll put Harris in bubble wrap until 2023 when the team hopefully addresses the online to give him some running room. Otherwise it'll be another 400 touches with an abysmal ypa.
Breece Hall - not only is he playing on the Jets he's not even starting for the Jets out of the gate, yet he's being drafted ahead of players with proven track records
Henry - another older rb who finally broke down last year with nothing else on offense? Do not draft.
Najee Harris - this is more for redraft. Last year is basically his ceiling. If Tomlin is smart he'll put Harris in bubble wrap until 2023 when the team hopefully addresses the online to give him some running room. Otherwise it'll be another 400 touches with an abysmal ypa.
Breece Hall - not only is he playing on the Jets he's not even starting for the Jets out of the gate, yet he's being drafted ahead of players with proven track records
TripItUp
Footballguy
The all-trendy team.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
QB1: Josh Allen - his efficiency metrics weren't good last year. Sounds like he wants to run less. I'll say he finishes QB4.
RB20: Breece Hall - I was tempted to put Conner here, but I'll go with a hot take here. Something feels off here...the excitement the Jets should have on Hall right now should be more palpable.
WR12: Keenan Allen - think this is the year Williams becomes the WR1 there. Plus, he's never been a big TD guy.
TE1: Travis Kelce - His stats already dropped off considerably from 2020 and without Hill to deflect attention, while he'll still be productive, I think a torch gets passed.
RB20: Breece Hall - I was tempted to put Conner here, but I'll go with a hot take here. Something feels off here...the excitement the Jets should have on Hall right now should be more palpable.
WR12: Keenan Allen - think this is the year Williams becomes the WR1 there. Plus, he's never been a big TD guy.
TE1: Travis Kelce - His stats already dropped off considerably from 2020 and without Hill to deflect attention, while he'll still be productive, I think a torch gets passed.
ohio#1eaglesfan
Footballguy
Michael Pittman. People are too confident in Matt Ryan throwing to the number one. Julio never had a lot of tds with Ryan. Calvin Ridley had a ton of those and I think Alec Pierce could fill that role.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I’d give the counterpoint that the fact that the falcons aren’t very good and are most likely going to be playing from behind a lot is more beneficial to Pitts fantasy wise. Garbage time yards/receptions/td’s don’t count for any less than non garbage time ones. I’d argue that the tight ends that have a higher chance of not paying off are Kittle and Waller. Kittle is a great blocker now has a qb that has insane running skills. Aiyuk and Deebo came on along big time last season—so its very possible that some of kittle’s role as a pass catcher will be transitioned into utilizing him as a blocker. In the case of Waller—not only is he battling injury—but the Raiders got a target monster this year in Adams. They also have Renfroe who will get target share. Waller used to be the primary option in the Raiders passing attack. That’s no longer the case.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a good theory. It’s one I’ve subscribed to in the past many times. The problem is, that also assumes better competence than 3 & outs, and that your defense is going to get your offense the ball back.
Doormat teams get run on, clock burns and offensive opportunities can be limited. It’s why I try to get players on good teams with early picks or at least teams I believe will have many offensive opportunities.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in ATL, but they could run fewer offensive plays than many other teams. They have a bad OL and a bad defense, and play in a tough-ish defensive division.
It’s a double edge’d sword with bad teams is all I’m saying. Garbage time counts, sure - but so does the offensive volume.
I have Pitts in dynasty on a rebuild. I’m glad I don’t have to count on him this year. I don’t think he’ll be terrible I’m just not sure he lives up to ADP.
I also have MM, so I’m rooting for him to be good enough that I can deal him. So it’s not like I’m rooting against them.
Just not feeling 3.03, where he went in my redraft.
wlwiles
Footballguy
He slid to me tonight at 3.12 in a redraft and I just couldn't say no at that price. Got him in every single league so far this year (1 dynasty, 3.12 in a redraft, 5.03 in SF redraft) so I'm either gonna be a genius or I'm going down in flames
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I probably wouldn’t either.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Whoa, I think Cook has tremendous value. Picked him in the 10-hole in redraft and has been a perennial top 4 pick in years past. Them attempting to trade Mattison bodes well for their confidence in him. He's a volume guy on a high powered offense. It's the situation I prefer when taking an RB.
QB=Aaron Rodgers (QB9) Davante Adams accounted for 34% of the Packers receiving numbers over the last 2 years. I know he's dealt with his top WRs leaving before but it's never been as barren as this, and he ran a lot more back then. This team has also been building up its defense and is a run 1st offense. Rodgers is still very efficient, but I think he's being priced at a point where he has zero upside. I have him QB13.
RB=Josh Jacobs (RB21) He simply isn't likely to see anywhere near his previous workload. I think he's an underrated NFL player, but he's part of a RBBC that could have 3-4 members even after Drake's departure. He is unlikely to catch many passes and isn't a lock to be the GL back either. I have him RB33.
WR=Amari Cooper (WR30) While he's only 28, I have some concerns that he's lost it. Take away his big week 1 last year, and he was WR35 in a pass heavy offense, with a FAR better QB than what he'll have this year (probably even after Watson comes back, as he's likely to be pretty rusty) there's also a lot of potential in my opinion that Cleveland is a dumpster fire. I have him WR36.
TE=Pat Freiermuth (TE11) Love the player, but there's so many mouths to feed in what is likely a below average offense. I could certainly see a scenario where he finishes 5th on the team in targets, behind Johnson, Claypool, Pickens, and Harris. Ben also loved throwing to him in the redzone, will Trubisky or Pickett? I have him TE13.
RB=Josh Jacobs (RB21) He simply isn't likely to see anywhere near his previous workload. I think he's an underrated NFL player, but he's part of a RBBC that could have 3-4 members even after Drake's departure. He is unlikely to catch many passes and isn't a lock to be the GL back either. I have him RB33.
WR=Amari Cooper (WR30) While he's only 28, I have some concerns that he's lost it. Take away his big week 1 last year, and he was WR35 in a pass heavy offense, with a FAR better QB than what he'll have this year (probably even after Watson comes back, as he's likely to be pretty rusty) there's also a lot of potential in my opinion that Cleveland is a dumpster fire. I have him WR36.
TE=Pat Freiermuth (TE11) Love the player, but there's so many mouths to feed in what is likely a below average offense. I could certainly see a scenario where he finishes 5th on the team in targets, behind Johnson, Claypool, Pickens, and Harris. Ben also loved throwing to him in the redzone, will Trubisky or Pickett? I have him TE13.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Lots of CMC hate around these parts.
Nah...I'll pass on the ultimate cheat code. Reminds me of the Fred Taylor days. CMC is no more likely to injured than any other back. You flip a coin and it came up heads three times follow by tails twice....has nothing to do with this year.
Nah...I'll pass on the ultimate cheat code. Reminds me of the Fred Taylor days. CMC is no more likely to injured than any other back. You flip a coin and it came up heads three times follow by tails twice....has nothing to do with this year.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I'm fully ready to be strung up in the middle of FBG Town Square but everyone's darling, depending on where he's drafted... Gabriel Davis. Isaiah McKenzie, Crowder, Diggs, Knox are all eating from this giant pie plus Josh Allen likes to run. I could see the team being more balanced to hold leads with their defense too. It just seems like Gabriel Davis is the biggest secret everyone is talking about and that typically drives price and lowers value.
DeAndre Swift - he looked good when healthy, but can he handle the work?
Mike Evans - going late 2nd/early 3rd? I'm fully ready to hear about this when he has 7/100/2 stat line against my Cowboys but doesn't the situation in Tampa seem less appealing than the past?
David Montgomery - I just hate RBs in a bad situation and the Bears feel like a bad situation. I think he sees stacked boxes, high pressure on the QB and until Fields can make defenses pay... I don't see that letting up. In fact, I'd literally rather have 8-10 of the RBs ranked below Montgomery.
DeAndre Swift - he looked good when healthy, but can he handle the work?
Mike Evans - going late 2nd/early 3rd? I'm fully ready to hear about this when he has 7/100/2 stat line against my Cowboys but doesn't the situation in Tampa seem less appealing than the past?
David Montgomery - I just hate RBs in a bad situation and the Bears feel like a bad situation. I think he sees stacked boxes, high pressure on the QB and until Fields can make defenses pay... I don't see that letting up. In fact, I'd literally rather have 8-10 of the RBs ranked below Montgomery.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Bold. I applaud you.
I think Jacobs situation looks better than it ever has. I have zero shares but I'm interested and think he fits the RB2 role on a fantasy team nicely.
Rodgers ... I mean, he has done it with everyone and made new stars. I think the GB receiving group is a weekly dice roll and will be going heavy on Watkins (DFS) early. If Rodgers can throw to Adams and everyone including my 7 year old knows he's throwing to Adams and he can still hit the pass... I'm inclined to believe, Rodgers is a stud and will outperform his criminally low ADP.
The other 2 are spot on.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not “hate”, more like a trust issue.
You’re dating a gal - she’s great. When things are right, she’s the perfect girlfriend
Then after a couple amazing years, she cheats on you. A while goes by…you remember the good times. You remember how perfect it was when you were together & it was right and good.
And you take her back.
Things are great for a while. Just like old times.
And then she cheats on you again.
And a while goes by, and in 2022 you get to thinking about how good things were when it was all good and right.
And you take her back again…..
That’s just me. Trust issues. No hate. I wish her well, and hope her and her new man are very happy together.
Last edited:
TheWinz
Footballguy
This does not sound like a trust issue at all... it sounds like lust. When your gal is hitting on all cylinders, she is the best you have ever had. Problem is, she sleeps around.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
No need to go any further. This is one of the more depressing posts I've ever seen in the Shark Pool.
(And we've all been there and done that)
Chaka
Footballguy
Take her back twice? That's not a trust issue, that is a deep psychological problem. You need to leave her and immediately seek therapy.
Chaka
Footballguy
I have neither cheated on anyone nor drafted CMC.
No need to go any further. This is one of the more depressing posts I've ever seen in the Shark Pool.
(And we've all been there and done that)
Last edited:
Saint
Footballguy
- QB: Jalen Hurts - QB6 (ADP 55). I'm an Eagles fan, but hard to overlook some terrible throws down the stretch. He can be all pro, but I don't think he can do it this year. I still expect Top 15, but lower than QB6.
- RB: David Montgomery - RB18 (ADP 37). I see Khalil Herbert as a better option and this move to more of a timeshare potentially. The Bears are going to be behind a lot and I think they will need more receptions. Maybe I'm wrong and Montgomery may be the guy, but who knows.
- WR: Tyreek Hill - WR8 (ADP 23). Do you believe in Tua? Not sure he can get the ball in space where Tyreek needs it. I think Tyreek will do fine, just not Top 8.
- TE: Albert Okwuegbunam TE16 (ADP 160). I expect Dulcich to cut into his time a bit which will drop his ADP.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Thus, the point.
Last edited:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And this is why I won’t date-er, draft CMC
No need to go any further. This is one of the more depressing posts I've ever seen in the Shark Pool.
(And we've all been there and done that)
“But dude,” the FF community will say…”there’s no way to predict that she’s gonna cheat on you again. She’s grown - she’s changed. It’s been a whole year. That was just a fluke when she hooked up with your cousin, and your best friend, and the horn section of the Cincinnati orchestra.”
Not today, satan. Not today.
Sasgaard
Footballguy
I'm getting some weird vibes on some of the posts around here about Jacobs. If he was taken as a RB1 or high RB2, I could understand the scepticism but it not like most of us expect him to produce and carry your team. I think Jacobs has a lot more room to surprise us in a good way than in a bad way simply because I don't think the expectations are that high in the first place. I've seen him fall really far in drafts and at that point, I feel there is only upside. I guess value on players is essentially dependent on what you expect in the first place. Don't think Jacobs has his place in this thread.
But that's just me.....
But that's just me.....
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If I could get him in the 6-7 rounds as a RB3/FLEX I’d be on it like Mr Clean on a dirty bathtub.
But he’s going 4-5 as a RB2, and IMO there are better values at WR in those round.
You’re right though - there’s a possible scenario in which Jacobs is a 250+ touch RB who gets GL work and stays healthy for 15 games. In that outcome he’s probably a bargain.
Yes it's a bit early on the 8 teamer but my philosophy there is that you need Studs to win at the lesser positions (TE being the biggest position to get this done). Kelce/Andrews were taken and I did not want to miss out on that top tier (which is where I have Pitts). In an 8 teamer you can't win if you don't have positional advantage and TE is the easiest place to get that. There are still a ton of great players so taking him a bit early doesn't hurt as much.
As far the 14 teamer, I am not sure why everyone kept passing on him. Maybe because RB's were hit hard and people were still banging that position to not miss out.
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't think 3.05 in a 12 teamer is that early if it's PPR, so I think you're good to grab him in an 8 teamer there. But ya, 8 teamers, every team is going to be stacked so getting a top 3 qb and te seems like a good idea as there's going to be starting quality RB/WR on your bench.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
PPR
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry
QB - Wilson - He will not be expected to throw as much as Denver should lean on the run game. Plus, Wilson himself does not run like he used to
RB - Henry - This one is easy to me. People ready to bury Zeke, yet Henry is older and has just as many miles. And he doesn't catch. And he lost a guy who received attention from the D
WR - Chase - Higgins back. Defenses probably going to shadow Chase more. Possibly run the ball more with three solid RB's lead by Mixon. Boyd hasn't gone anywhere either.
TE - Pitts - Will start strong, but when the rookie QB takes over, who knows what to expect
RB - Henry - This one is easy to me. People ready to bury Zeke, yet Henry is older and has just as many miles. And he doesn't catch. And he lost a guy who received attention from the D
WR - Chase - Higgins back. Defenses probably going to shadow Chase more. Possibly run the ball more with three solid RB's lead by Mixon. Boyd hasn't gone anywhere either.
TE - Pitts - Will start strong, but when the rookie QB takes over, who knows what to expect
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Always pick 12 in fantasy football and life?I have neither cheated on anyone nor drafted CMC.
No need to go any further. This is one of the more depressing posts I've ever seen in the Shark Pool.
(And we've all been there and done that)
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't disagree that Ekeler may regress from last season's performance, since he had an unusually high number of TDs, especially considering all of the other talent around him in the offense.
But I'm not sure how much size has to do with it. In all seriousness, is there any evidence that it matters with respect to being a workhorse RB? I don't know the answer.
PFR lists Ekeler at 5'10" 200 lbs, but other sources list him at 5'8".
Consider some other heights and weights from PFR:
- Barry Sanders 5'8" 203 lbs
- Walter Payton 5'10" 200 lbs
- Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200 lbs
- Marshall Faulk 5'10" 211 lbs
- Ladainian Tomlinson 5'10" 215 lbs
- Tiki Barber 5'10" 205 lbs
- Curtis Martin 5'11" 210 lbs
- Tony Dorsett 5'11" 192 lbs
