Players Who Could be Quality "Buy Lows" in Redraft 2013 (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

Everyone looks at the injured or situation hindered players; Fitzgerald, McFadden, Murray, MJD, Nicks...those guys will be on everyone's radar as buy lows.

I like to look at guys who performed well, but don't have the track record, and decide on them. McCoy made me a lot of money last season when people weren't sold and were taking "safer" options like Chris Johnson.

Did the same with Cruz he and was great before Eli's arm went out.

So guys like Cecil Shorts and Alfred Morris will go lower than they should and I will be looking to get both at a discount where I can next season.

 

[zftcg]

Bill Simmons used to joke that Stafford's full name was "Matthew Staffordifheshealthy" (it was kind of a bum rap, but whatever). Along those lines, I think McFadden's full name is "Darren McFaddenuntilhegetshurt". I'm staying away from both him and Ryan Mathewsuntilhebreakshisclavicle.

 

[strong]

The way this season is going, I gotta say Hakeem Nicks.

If you can get him as your 2 or 3, yes.

He was late 3rd, early 4th this year. Gotta figure that after this season where he has been injured or under performing hes gotta drop to WR2-3 territory. Id love to take him as my WR2 and Id even take him as a WR1 if he looked good in the off season.

That's two years in a row he's been completely dusted by Cruz. There's no way I could trust him as my WR1 next year no matter how great the off-season coach-speak is about him. Love his talent, but with Cruz being a yardage hog and Nicks showing signs of slowing down after all the wear-and-tear from injuries, I don't want him anywhere near my roster at anything more than WR3 price.

 

[BrainDeadGenius]

I'll be very curious to see where Percy Harvin ranks heading into next season. I also really like Amendola, Blackmon, and Maclin for what I expect they'll go for. Kaepernick should be nice value. I don't see much at RB so I think it will be important as ever to nab studs at RB and then fill the rest of your roster.

 

[Sabertooth]

Ryan Mathews is a guy I would give a 2nd rounder for. Maybe a late 1st.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'll be very curious to see where Percy Harvin ranks heading into next season. I also really like Amendola, Blackmon, and Maclin for what I expect they'll go for. Kaepernick should be nice value. I don't see much at RB so I think it will be important as ever to nab studs at RB and then fill the rest of your roster.

I have Harvin in a league. I have him even with Dez Bryant.

 

[jonboltz]

Ryan Mathews is a guy I would give a 2nd rounder for. Maybe a late 1st.

I have 1.11 and that is frankly a no-brainer in my mind. Can't imagine that you could get him for that price, however.

 

[spodog]

I have a feeling Trent Richardson will go lower than he should next year.

Hard for this prediction to come true. There are already 2013 mock drafts with T Rich at around the end of the 1st round. Unless you think he's deserving of top 5, he's more likely to be drafted right at his value or even slightly above.

 

[zftcg]

Here's the question I'm going to be puzzling over this offseason: How to get a Top 5 RB who's not drafted in the Top 5. I did that last year with McCoy (drafted 7, finished 2). This year, I had the third pick and also took McCoy, even though I had a feeling he would fall off significantly (though, as I argued upthread, he actually didn't do as badly as most people think).

Here was my league's Top 10 drafted this year, and here is the Top 10 finishers (12-team, 0.5 PPR, otherwise standard scoring):

1. Foster

2. Rice

3. McCoy

4. McFadden

5. CJ2K

6. Forte

7. Lynch

8. MJD

9. Peterson

10. Charles

1. Peterson

2. Martin

3. Foster

4. Lynch

5. Rice

6. Morris

7. Spiller

8. Richardson

9. Charles

10. Gore

That's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:

1. Peterson

2. Foster

3. Martin

4. Rice

5. Spiller

6. TRich

7. Morris

8. McCoy

9. MJD

10. Ridley/Johnson/Forte

So the question is, who among that group will fall out, and who will leapfrog them? I like McCoy and MJD to have bounceback seasons, and I think Charles will be that much stronger in his second year back from ACL (and an offense that almost has to be better). I have this nagging feeling Foster may have already peaked, and I have some concerns about Richardson. I think Spiller could easily be a Top 3 back, but there does seem to be some injury risk. Morris is solid, but will probably see some regression on his TDs. Really can't trust Johnson and Forteuntilhegetshurt. And of course, there will be the out-of-nowhere guys like Morris and Martin were this year.

Our draft order is determined randomly a half hour before the draft begins, but I'll be hoping to get slotted in the late first round, like 7 or 8. I think that's where the most value will be.

 

[pantherclub]

Here's the question I'm going to be puzzling over this offseason: How to get a Top 5 RB who's not drafted in the Top 5. I did that last year with McCoy (drafted 7, finished 2). This year, I had the third pick and also took McCoy, even though I had a feeling he would fall off significantly (though, as I argued upthread, he actually didn't do as badly as most people think).Here was my league's Top 10 drafted this year, and here is the Top 10 finishers (12-team, 0.5 PPR, otherwise standard scoring):1. Foster2. Rice3. McCoy4. McFadden5. CJ2K6. Forte7. Lynch8. MJD9. Peterson10. Charles1. Peterson2. Martin3. Foster4. Lynch5. Rice6. Morris7. Spiller8. Richardson9. Charles10. GoreThat's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:1. Peterson2. Foster3. Martin4. Rice5. Spiller6. TRich7. Morris8. McCoy9. MJD10. Ridley/Johnson/ForteSo the question is, who among that group will fall out, and who will leapfrog them? I like McCoy and MJD to have bounceback seasons, and I think Charles will be that much stronger in his second year back from ACL (and an offense that almost has to be better). I have this nagging feeling Foster may have already peaked, and I have some concerns about Richardson. I think Spiller could easily be a Top 3 back, but there does seem to be some injury risk. Morris is solid, but will probably see some regression on his TDs. Really can't trust Johnson and Forteuntilhegetshurt. And of course, there will be the out-of-nowhere guys like Morris and Martin were this year.Our draft order is determined randomly a half hour before the draft begins, but I'll be hoping to get slotted in the late first round, like 7 or 8. I think that's where the most value will be.

Your data shows why picking a rb in the first is a horrible strategy. Way less risk going qb or wr.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Everyone looks at the injured or situation hindered players; Fitzgerald, McFadden, Murray, MJD, Nicks...those guys will be on everyone's radar as buy lows. I like to look at guys who performed well, but don't have the track record, and decide on them. McCoy made me a lot of money last season when people weren't sold and were taking "safer" options like Chris Johnson. Did the same with Cruz he and was great before Eli's arm went out. So guys like Cecil Shorts and Alfred Morris will go lower than they should and I will be looking to get both at a discount where I can next season.

I have a hard time believing AlMo will go anywhere near where he'd represent real value. He finished the year at RB5 and I imagine he'll be drafted right around there - maybe a spot or two lower.Shorts, on the other hand, is one of my top "buy low" candidates for next year. In fact, outside the top-10 WRs, there were six guys who finished with 50+ catches and 16+ YPC and I think they're all excellent buy-low guys for '13: Cecil Shorts (17.80)Torrey Smith (17.45) TY Hilton (17.22)Josh Gordon (16.10)Steve Smith (16.08)Lance Moore (16.02)... with Shorts and Moore being my picks for greatest value among these.

 

[finito]

Everyone looks at the injured or situation hindered players; Fitzgerald, McFadden, Murray, MJD, Nicks...those guys will be on everyone's radar as buy lows. I like to look at guys who performed well, but don't have the track record, and decide on them. McCoy made me a lot of money last season when people weren't sold and were taking "safer" options like Chris Johnson. Did the same with Cruz he and was great before Eli's arm went out. So guys like Cecil Shorts and Alfred Morris will go lower than they should and I will be looking to get both at a discount where I can next season.

I have a hard time believing AlMo will go anywhere near where he'd represent real value. He finished the year at RB5 and I imagine he'll be drafted right around there - maybe a spot or two lower.Shorts, on the other hand, is one of my top "buy low" candidates for next year. In fact, outside the top-10 WRs, there were six guys who finished with 50+ catches and 16+ YPC and I think they're all excellent buy-low guys for '13: Cecil Shorts (17.80)Torrey Smith (17.45) TY Hilton (17.22)Josh Gordon (16.10)Steve Smith (16.08)Lance Moore (16.02)... with Shorts and Moore being my picks for greatest value among these.

Love Shorts in both redraft and dynasty. Guy is for real IMO. Also like Chris Givens in St. Louis to emerge into a consistent deep threat. He showed flashes of excellence and another year in the system could cement him into a strong starter.

 

[FF Ninja]

That's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:1. Peterson2. Foster3. Martin4. Rice5. Spiller6. TRich7. Morris8. McCoy9. MJD10. Ridley/Johnson/Forte

I'd be tempted to take Lynch #3 and he's not even listed. As Russell Wilson becomes a legitimate threat to throw the ball (not the case early in the season), Lynch will find more running room. Even with the obvious runs on first and second down early in the season, he was still one of only four players to finish the year with >200 carries and >5.0 ypc (Peterson, Spiller, Charles).

 

[Chazzhawk]

Everyone looks at the injured or situation hindered players; Fitzgerald, McFadden, Murray, MJD, Nicks...those guys will be on everyone's radar as buy lows. I like to look at guys who performed well, but don't have the track record, and decide on them. McCoy made me a lot of money last season when people weren't sold and were taking "safer" options like Chris Johnson. Did the same with Cruz he and was great before Eli's arm went out. So guys like Cecil Shorts and Alfred Morris will go lower than they should and I will be looking to get both at a discount where I can next season.

I have a hard time believing AlMo will go anywhere near where he'd represent real value. He finished the year at RB5 and I imagine he'll be drafted right around there - maybe a spot or two lower.Shorts, on the other hand, is one of my top "buy low" candidates for next year. In fact, outside the top-10 WRs, there were six guys who finished with 50+ catches and 16+ YPC and I think they're all excellent buy-low guys for '13: Cecil Shorts (17.80)Torrey Smith (17.45) TY Hilton (17.22)Josh Gordon (16.10)Steve Smith (16.08)Lance Moore (16.02)... with Shorts and Moore being my picks for greatest value among these.

Shorts is the ultimate wildcard here, odds are Tebow ends up in Jacksonville next year. Will he start, backup, or whatever? I am not sure. If he does end up starting Shorts is going to hard to start, he will have weeks where he catches 4 or 5 passes for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns, he will also have games where he catches 0 passes.

 

[Chazzhawk]

That's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:1. Peterson2. Foster3. Martin4. Rice5. Spiller6. TRich7. Morris8. McCoy9. MJD10. Ridley/Johnson/Forte

I'd be tempted to take Lynch #3 and he's not even listed. As Russell Wilson becomes a legitimate threat to throw the ball (not the case early in the season), Lynch will find more running room. Even with the obvious runs on first and second down early in the season, he was still one of only four players to finish the year with >200 carries and >5.0 ypc (Peterson, Spiller, Charles).

Hard to believe Lynch wouldn't be in a list of the top 10 backs off the board next year. I would take him 4th or 5th behind Peterson, Martin, Rice. Then it would be tough because the man crush on Spiller I have, but he would be right there.

 

[Slapdash]

I have a feeling Trent Richardson will go lower than he should next year.

Hard for this prediction to come true. There are already 2013 mock drafts with T Rich at around the end of the 1st round. Unless you think he's deserving of top 5, he's more likely to be drafted right at his value or even slightly above.

It depends on ADP, but if you can get Trent near the end of the 1st round I'll put him in the buy low category. I expect Top 5 from him next year. I also expect that Lance Moore will continue to be a great value next year. A lot of talk about Shorts in here, so maybe Blackmon is the guy to buy low.

 

[fightingillini]

That's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:1. Peterson2. Foster3. Martin4. Rice5. Spiller6. TRich7. Morris8. McCoy9. MJD10. Ridley/Johnson/Forte

I'd be tempted to take Lynch #3 and he's not even listed. As Russell Wilson becomes a legitimate threat to throw the ball (not the case early in the season), Lynch will find more running room. Even with the obvious runs on first and second down early in the season, he was still one of only four players to finish the year with >200 carries and >5.0 ypc (Peterson, Spiller, Charles).

In a Non PPR league, I would take Lynch #3 overall. In a PPR league, I would have Lynch #5 behind AP, Foster, Rice and Martin.But that said, the difference between Lynch, Martin, Richardson, and Rice next year is very small. Once you get past Peterson and Foster, the next 10-11 picks are tough. There are a lot of good options, though.

 

[Concept Coop]

I have a hard time believing AlMo will go anywhere near where he'd represent real value. He finished the year at RB5 and I imagine he'll be drafted right around there - maybe a spot or two lower.

I think he's as likely to repeat as anyone, personally. We'll have to see when the ADP data comes out, but I really think he'll go later than he should, just as McCoy did after his first top 3 finish.

 

[fightingillini]

I have a feeling Trent Richardson will go lower than he should next year.

Hard for this prediction to come true. There are already 2013 mock drafts with T Rich at around the end of the 1st round. Unless you think he's deserving of top 5, he's more likely to be drafted right at his value or even slightly above.

It depends on ADP, but if you can get Trent near the end of the 1st round I'll put him in the buy low category. I expect Top 5 from him next year. I also expect that Lance Moore will continue to be a great value next year. A lot of talk about Shorts in here, so maybe Blackmon is the guy to buy low.

Richardson was RB6 in my PPR league and he averaged less than 4 YPC on a terrible team. Imagine what he could do if CLE goes out and gets a playmaker or two.Agree on Moore. Great WR4 to have, and his price should still be that. Should put up WR3 numbers with Brees throwing for 5000 yards again.I like Blackmon's value as well.....as long as Henne is the QB. If JAX goes out and gets Tebow, all bets are off on that.

 

[fightingillini]

I have a hard time believing AlMo will go anywhere near where he'd represent real value. He finished the year at RB5 and I imagine he'll be drafted right around there - maybe a spot or two lower.

I think he's as likely to repeat as anyone, personally. We'll have to see when the ADP data comes out, but I really think he'll go later than he should, just as McCoy did after his first top 3 finish.

In a PPR league, I am really reluctant to take Morris that high, since he doesn't catch passes. And I don't expect him to post big numbers if RGIII misses any time, which I am always concerned about since running QBs tend to get nicked up more often. We will also see how defenses adjust to defending WAS next year. Defenses did a good job adjusting to Cam Newton.In a non PPR league, I have no problems taking Morris at around pick 7 or 8.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

That's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:

1. Peterson

2. Foster

3. Martin

4. Rice

5. Spiller

6. TRich

7. Morris

8. McCoy

9. MJD

10. Ridley/Johnson/Forte

I'd be tempted to take Lynch #3 and he's not even listed. As Russell Wilson becomes a legitimate threat to throw the ball (not the case early in the season), Lynch will find more running room. Even with the obvious runs on first and second down early in the season, he was still one of only four players to finish the year with >200 carries and >5.0 ypc (Peterson, Spiller, Charles).

In a Non PPR league, I would take Lynch #3 overall. In a PPR league, I would have Lynch #5 behind AP, Foster, Rice and Martin.But that said, the difference between Lynch, Martin, Richardson, and Rice next year is very small. Once you get past Peterson and Foster, the next 10-11 picks are tough. There are a lot of good options, though.

I dont see anyone having MJD that high. You're top 7 looks fine but Lynch and Charles are both top 10s. Only reason Lynch would not be is possible suspension time. I don't see what T.Rich has done to justify a top 5 selection.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I like Blackmon's value as well.....as long as Henne is the QB. If JAX goes out and gets Tebow, all bets are off on that.

Good point - goes for Shorts as well obviously. Nate Washington is another possible diamond-in-the-rough WR whose value is going to be greatly influenced by next year's QB situation. There was a lot of ing about Gabbert, Kolb, Tannehill et al. on FBG this year, but Jake Locker was every bit as bad as any of them in 2012. If the Titans somehow land someone like Alex Smith in the offseason I think Washington has the potential for 80/1200/8 next year working opposite Britt.

 

[zftcg]

That's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:

1. Peterson

2. Foster

3. Martin

4. Rice

5. Spiller

6. TRich

7. Morris

8. McCoy

9. MJD

10. Ridley/Johnson/Forte

I'd be tempted to take Lynch #3 and he's not even listed. As Russell Wilson becomes a legitimate threat to throw the ball (not the case early in the season), Lynch will find more running room. Even with the obvious runs on first and second down early in the season, he was still one of only four players to finish the year with >200 carries and >5.0 ypc (Peterson, Spiller, Charles).

In a Non PPR league, I would take Lynch #3 overall. In a PPR league, I would have Lynch #5 behind AP, Foster, Rice and Martin.But that said, the difference between Lynch, Martin, Richardson, and Rice next year is very small. Once you get past Peterson and Foster, the next 10-11 picks are tough. There are a lot of good options, though.

I dont see anyone having MJD that high. You're top 7 looks fine but Lynch and Charles are both top 10s. Only reason Lynch would not be is possible suspension time. I don't see what T.Rich has done to justify a top 5 selection.

Sorry, totally spaced (that's what I get for posting before bedtime). I meant to put Lynch and Charles in there. Probably Lynch around 5-7 and Charles around 9 or 10. And I agree with you that MJD will probably fall out of the Top 10, which I think makes him an attractive buy-low. I agree with you on Richardson, but I think he'll be drafted above his value. I would much rather have Spiller and Lynch.

 

[Chazzhawk]

A guy I just thought of is Vernon Davis. I don't mind picking him in the 10th or 11th round as my tight end 2. He has the upside of a te1 and maybe with an off season of working together he will be Kaepernicks second favorite target.

 

[Sabertooth]

I like Blackmon's value as well.....as long as Henne is the QB. If JAX goes out and gets Tebow, all bets are off on that.

Good point - goes for Shorts as well obviously. Nate Washington is another possible diamond-in-the-rough WR whose value is going to be greatly influenced by next year's QB situation. There was a lot of ing about Gabbert, Kolb, Tannehill et al. on FBG this year, but Jake Locker was every bit as bad as any of them in 2012. If the Titans somehow land someone like Alex Smith in the offseason I think Washington has the potential for 80/1200/8 next year working opposite Britt.

Gabbert was making strides when he got hurt. I suspect he has the inside track on starting.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

A guy I just thought of is Vernon Davis. I don't mind picking him in the 10th or 11th round as my tight end 2. He has the upside of a te1 and maybe with an off season of working together he will be Kaepernicks second favorite target.

I'd love to draft Davis in that area, but I think he might wind up going higher than that on name recognition alone. He certainly has breakout potential but the Niners' scheme just doesn't seem to be geared to take advantage of his combination of size and speed by splitting him out wide all that often. Maybe that'll change now that Kaep is "the guy" under center.But speaking of undervalued TE's, hands up if you knew that Brandon Myers finished 4th among all TEs in catches this year. If the Raiders can improve on that trainwreck of an OL and give him a few more red-zone looks, I could see Myers having a real shot at top-5 numbers next year.

 

[donkshow]

I'm going to be trying to pair up V. Davis with something next year. He's so good if only he was utilized properly.

 

[fightingillini]

That's only 2/5 and 5/10. The consensus Top 10 for next year seems to be something along the lines of:

1. Peterson

2. Foster

3. Martin

4. Rice

5. Spiller

6. TRich

7. Morris

8. McCoy

9. MJD

10. Ridley/Johnson/Forte

I'd be tempted to take Lynch #3 and he's not even listed. As Russell Wilson becomes a legitimate threat to throw the ball (not the case early in the season), Lynch will find more running room. Even with the obvious runs on first and second down early in the season, he was still one of only four players to finish the year with >200 carries and >5.0 ypc (Peterson, Spiller, Charles).

In a Non PPR league, I would take Lynch #3 overall. In a PPR league, I would have Lynch #5 behind AP, Foster, Rice and Martin.But that said, the difference between Lynch, Martin, Richardson, and Rice next year is very small. Once you get past Peterson and Foster, the next 10-11 picks are tough. There are a lot of good options, though.

I dont see anyone having MJD that high. You're top 7 looks fine but Lynch and Charles are both top 10s. Only reason Lynch would not be is possible suspension time. I don't see what T.Rich has done to justify a top 5 selection.

I don't have MJD that high. I was just responding.....that wasn't my list. I agree that Lynch and Charles are top 10s.Richardson was RB6 in my PPR league and CLE was atrocious this year. He can only get better. Now in a nonPPR league, I would drop Richardson down a few spots, but at worst he's a top 10 guy.

 

[lbouchard]

Pierre Garcon will be a WR1 next year.

 

[zftcg]

I'm going to be trying to pair up V. Davis with something next year. He's so good if only he was utilized properly.

I don't trust Davis at all. Then again, I really don't trust any TEs outside of the Top 4 (Gronk, Graham, Hernandez, Witten). I don't necessarily think the position will be as volatile next year, but almost by definition someone from that second tier (Davis, Olsen, Myers, Pitta, Daniels, Rudolph, Gresham) will end up being undervalued. But good luck figuring out which it will be. If I had to put money on someone, I'd say Gresham, but that's a total shot in the dark.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

starting to think that with all the talk in here we may have a return of RB's flooding the first round....if that's the case, the real "buy low" bargains may be the guys at other positions.....still a passing league even though the RB position looks a little more settled then it did heading into last year and some of the QB's came back down to earth so to speak.....if it's a 6 point per passing TD and some sort of PPR league, the buy lows might be elsewhere...not at RB

DMAC, Nicks, Ryan Mathews are going to have a real hard time finding their way onto any of my rosters....will still cost you a pretty high pick to get them and I just can't see myself pulling the trigger on them with what would also still be available at the time....and no way they fall to where you "just can't pass them up".....

 

[FF Ninja]

A guy I just thought of is Vernon Davis. I don't mind picking him in the 10th or 11th round as my tight end 2. He has the upside of a te1 and maybe with an off season of working together he will be Kaepernicks second favorite target.

As someone else said, he's not going to fall that far, but he might be a medium risk/medium upside play next year. His value should be suppressed due to his low targets and tail off at the end of the year. Strangely, in the last 5 weeks of the season, Crabtree saw his targets surge to 11.2 per game while Davis saw his shrink to just 2.2 per game. I think Kaepernick was attempting something like 28.8 passes per game. This offense doesn't throw the ball enough to support a lot of players, but I expect those two players' targets to level out at least a little bit next year. If people overreact then I'll definitely gamble on Davis increasing his chemistry with Kaep from minimal to at least average next year. He only saw 61 targets this year. Anything less than 100 for a player of his caliber is craziness. He finished as TE3 on just 92 targets in 2010. To be fair, he finished as TE8 with 110 the next year.

 

[meyerj31]

Pierre Garcon will be a WR1 next year.

He's my number 1 buy-low guy. Imagine the season he'd have had if not for that week 1 injury. I expect him to routinely fall to the 4th plus and I will be snagging him everywhere. This is the guy who had nearly a 1,000 yard season with Painter throwing him the ball. And he's been on fire with RG3. I had him everywhere this year and held him, won some leagues with his late burst, and I'll have him everywhere next year. If you cherry pick his first game and last 6 games he's at a 18 PPG clip in PPR ... good for 8th WR average. I see Richardson falling too low as well. With a season of experience and no broken ribs, with Weeden getting batter and the WRs developing... I think Richardson will be a lock for top 3 production next year.

 

[Scooby1974]

For what it's worth...

Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.

He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

 

[jonboltz]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

4 games is just a really small sample size. He finished 11th in my league, 12th in PPG, and 13th in PPG if you only use Kaepernick's games while starting. I think he can certainly make some improvements, and finish next year in the 7-10 range, but that second tier of QBs all have a lot of good things going for them and their isn't any way to predict (in my mind) how that group of QBs will finish up, except me guessing that they all end up fairly similar by years end.

 

[Nucker101]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

 

[meyerj31]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

4 games is just a really small sample size. He finished 11th in my league, 12th in PPG, and 13th in PPG if you only use Kaepernick's games while starting. I think he can certainly make some improvements, and finish next year in the 7-10 range, but that second tier of QBs all have a lot of good things going for them and their isn't any way to predict (in my mind) how that group of QBs will finish up, except me guessing that they all end up fairly similar by years end.

Yea there's no way I'm drafting Wilson above QB12 next year. Drafting based on the last few games is dangerous thinking. He's obviously a high-upside QB2, though. That offense just isn't going to pass enough for him to ever be a top fantasy option, and he doesn't have the build of Cam to be able to get regular rushing yards/TDs.

 

[homebrumiester]

Vincent Brown could be a good bye low candidate in 13 if he is back and totally healed.

 

[FF Ninja]

Edit: nevermind. The Vincent Jackson instead of Vincent Brown threw me off.

 

[Scooby1974]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

4 games is just a really small sample size. He finished 11th in my league, 12th in PPG, and 13th in PPG if you only use Kaepernick's games while starting. I think he can certainly make some improvements, and finish next year in the 7-10 range, but that second tier of QBs all have a lot of good things going for them and their isn't any way to predict (in my mind) how that group of QBs will finish up, except me guessing that they all end up fairly similar by years end.

Yea there's no way I'm drafting Wilson above QB12 next year. Drafting based on the last few games is dangerous thinking. He's obviously a high-upside QB2, though. That offense just isn't going to pass enough for him to ever be a top fantasy option, and he doesn't have the build of Cam to be able to get regular rushing yards/TDs.

The impressive part for me was the sentence that said Wilson finished 9THE OVERALL for the ENTIRE SEASON. I'm not saying base it on 4 weeks, base it on ALL the weeks and he STILL ended up 9th. Pete Carrol started him off slow and then gave him more and more rope. I wouldn't project the last 4 weeks into 2013. However, I don't think Carrol will be holding Wilson back in 2013. The gloves have come off, and looking at the scoreboard, Pete doesn't seem to be concerned about putting too many points on the board. I think this will lead to guys drafting Russell at #12...but if he continues to develop, I like the odds of him finishing better than 9 next year at a #12-#14 price tag.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Who am I?

74 catches and 1083 yards this year.

I was playing with a rookie QB who is/was extremely raw.

I myself am only 26 years old and will improve.

My team will be adding another WR who will take pressure off of me and therefore cause my fantasy value to drop even more as everyone drafts the other guy much higher (many persume it could be Jennings).

I only scored 1 td this year. Almost impossible to have that many catches and so few td's ever again.

My offense will only improve and is one that has had multiple WR's be successful in the system in other places(see GB) where my head coach was the offensive coordinator the previous 2 years before becoming my head coach.

The answer is Brian Hartline. Nobody wants to believen in him. He is not elite but he is better than average. You don't put up those type of numbers as a 26 year old WR playing with a raw rookie qb without being at least better than average.

Hartline finds ways to get open. Tannheill missed him on multiple plays this year which would have even had his numbers better then they were.

If Hartline resigns in Miami which most expect to happen you can get him cheap and he will give you good WR 3 numbers next year with a pretty good chance of being a WR 2 even though he will be drafted as a WR 4/5 type.

 

[lbouchard]

^I liked the idea behind your post but Miami is almost guaranteed to sign one of the big 3 FA WRs. Hartline would be relegated to Miami's WR2, hurting his target numbers.

 

[jonboltz]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

4 games is just a really small sample size. He finished 11th in my league, 12th in PPG, and 13th in PPG if you only use Kaepernick's games while starting. I think he can certainly make some improvements, and finish next year in the 7-10 range, but that second tier of QBs all have a lot of good things going for them and their isn't any way to predict (in my mind) how that group of QBs will finish up, except me guessing that they all end up fairly similar by years end.

Yea there's no way I'm drafting Wilson above QB12 next year. Drafting based on the last few games is dangerous thinking. He's obviously a high-upside QB2, though. That offense just isn't going to pass enough for him to ever be a top fantasy option, and he doesn't have the build of Cam to be able to get regular rushing yards/TDs.

The impressive part for me was the sentence that said Wilson finished 9THE OVERALL for the ENTIRE SEASON. I'm not saying base it on 4 weeks, base it on ALL the weeks and he STILL ended up 9th. Pete Carrol started him off slow and then gave him more and more rope. I wouldn't project the last 4 weeks into 2013. However, I don't think Carrol will be holding Wilson back in 2013. The gloves have come off, and looking at the scoreboard, Pete doesn't seem to be concerned about putting too many points on the board. I think this will lead to guys drafting Russell at #12...but if he continues to develop, I like the odds of him finishing better than 9 next year at a #12-#14 price tag.

If you can get him at 12-14, then that is obviously great. But remember, if you are looking to get a QB1, you should be shooting a lot higher than hoping for a top-9 finish. Additionally, a few points to remember:First, I don't think, in most leagues, he was actually 9th overall. At least in my league, which is a "fairly standard" (4pt passing TD, 1pt/20passing, 1pt/10 rushing, -1 pt turnover) scoring league, he was 11th overall, 13th in PPG (if you include Kaepernick's starts only).Second, if you think he is going to move up, you have to think about who he is going to pass. Barring injuries, we have:Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Newton, RG3, Ryan as your top-7 last year. Following this, you have Romo, Stafford, and Luck. I could see Romo's yards and PPG dropping some, but you would expect the other two to actually improve upon 2012. You also have Kaepernick, who was producing greater than these three in PPG. Roethelisberger and then Wilson followed, at 12th and 13th in PPG. I like Wilson, but I realistically think that 10th is his upside, barring injuries. I don't see any of the top 7, Stafford, or Luck scoring less than him in 2013, and I could easily see him having a pretty good "NFL-year", while finishing at QB-15 or so.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

^I liked the idea behind your post but Miami is almost guaranteed to sign one of the big 3 FA WRs. Hartline would be relegated to Miami's WR2, hurting his target numbers.

Did you not read my whole post?THe offense is capable of having multiple WR's succeed. See GB which is the exact same offense Miami runs and will run. Hartline will still get minimum 115-120 targets as the WR 2 guy. He had 131 this year.Tannehill threw the ball 484 times this year. I expect him to be over 500 next year.Bess will be relegated to the slot and takes the biggest hit of them all.Having another big play making WR opposite him will help him more then hurt him.

 

[jonboltz]

^I liked the idea behind your post but Miami is almost guaranteed to sign one of the big 3 FA WRs. Hartline would be relegated to Miami's WR2, hurting his target numbers.

Did you not read my whole post?THe offense is capable of having multiple WR's succeed. See GB which is the exact same offense Miami runs and will run. Hartline will still get minimum 115-120 targets as the WR 2 guy. He had 131 this year.Tannehill threw the ball 484 times this year. I expect him to be over 500 next year.Bess will be relegated to the slot and takes the biggest hit of them all.Having another big play making WR opposite him will help him more then hurt him.

I'd expect Hartline to take a much larger hit than Bess, and wouldn't be shocked at all if Bess 'relegated to the slot' gets more catches than Hartline if they bring in a Bowe-type.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

^I liked the idea behind your post but Miami is almost guaranteed to sign one of the big 3 FA WRs. Hartline would be relegated to Miami's WR2, hurting his target numbers.

Did you not read my whole post?THe offense is capable of having multiple WR's succeed. See GB which is the exact same offense Miami runs and will run. Hartline will still get minimum 115-120 targets as the WR 2 guy. He had 131 this year.Tannehill threw the ball 484 times this year. I expect him to be over 500 next year.Bess will be relegated to the slot and takes the biggest hit of them all.Having another big play making WR opposite him will help him more then hurt him.

I'd expect Hartline to take a much larger hit than Bess, and wouldn't be shocked at all if Bess 'relegated to the slot' gets more catches than Hartline if they bring in a Bowe-type.

You could be right. Although I think the rapport Hartline and Tannehill have is only going to get better.

 

[Scooby1974]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

4 games is just a really small sample size. He finished 11th in my league, 12th in PPG, and 13th in PPG if you only use Kaepernick's games while starting. I think he can certainly make some improvements, and finish next year in the 7-10 range, but that second tier of QBs all have a lot of good things going for them and their isn't any way to predict (in my mind) how that group of QBs will finish up, except me guessing that they all end up fairly similar by years end.

Yea there's no way I'm drafting Wilson above QB12 next year. Drafting based on the last few games is dangerous thinking. He's obviously a high-upside QB2, though. That offense just isn't going to pass enough for him to ever be a top fantasy option, and he doesn't have the build of Cam to be able to get regular rushing yards/TDs.

The impressive part for me was the sentence that said Wilson finished 9THE OVERALL for the ENTIRE SEASON. I'm not saying base it on 4 weeks, base it on ALL the weeks and he STILL ended up 9th. Pete Carrol started him off slow and then gave him more and more rope. I wouldn't project the last 4 weeks into 2013. However, I don't think Carrol will be holding Wilson back in 2013. The gloves have come off, and looking at the scoreboard, Pete doesn't seem to be concerned about putting too many points on the board. I think this will lead to guys drafting Russell at #12...but if he continues to develop, I like the odds of him finishing better than 9 next year at a #12-#14 price tag.

If you can get him at 12-14, then that is obviously great. But remember, if you are looking to get a QB1, you should be shooting a lot higher than hoping for a top-9 finish. Additionally, a few points to remember:First, I don't think, in most leagues, he was actually 9th overall. At least in my league, which is a "fairly standard" (4pt passing TD, 1pt/20passing, 1pt/10 rushing, -1 pt turnover) scoring league, he was 11th overall, 13th in PPG (if you include Kaepernick's starts only).Second, if you think he is going to move up, you have to think about who he is going to pass. Barring injuries, we have:Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Newton, RG3, Ryan as your top-7 last year. Following this, you have Romo, Stafford, and Luck. I could see Romo's yards and PPG dropping some, but you would expect the other two to actually improve upon 2012. You also have Kaepernick, who was producing greater than these three in PPG. Roethelisberger and then Wilson followed, at 12th and 13th in PPG. I like Wilson, but I realistically think that 10th is his upside, barring injuries. I don't see any of the top 7, Stafford, or Luck scoring less than him in 2013, and I could easily see him having a pretty good "NFL-year", while finishing at QB-15 or so.

All good points, Boltz. I doubt he is available at 12. I could realistically (assuming he doesn't regress of course) see him outproduce RG3, Ryan, Romo, Luck, and Stafford our my league. Ryan and RG3 only outproduced him by 20 points. He outproduced Stafford, Luck, and Romo this year as it is.Just a good, under the radar guy to keep an eye out for. It is likely a safer bet to take Ryan, Luck and MAYBE Stafford over him...but to each his own.

 

[jonboltz]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

4 games is just a really small sample size. He finished 11th in my league, 12th in PPG, and 13th in PPG if you only use Kaepernick's games while starting. I think he can certainly make some improvements, and finish next year in the 7-10 range, but that second tier of QBs all have a lot of good things going for them and their isn't any way to predict (in my mind) how that group of QBs will finish up, except me guessing that they all end up fairly similar by years end.

Yea there's no way I'm drafting Wilson above QB12 next year. Drafting based on the last few games is dangerous thinking. He's obviously a high-upside QB2, though. That offense just isn't going to pass enough for him to ever be a top fantasy option, and he doesn't have the build of Cam to be able to get regular rushing yards/TDs.

The impressive part for me was the sentence that said Wilson finished 9THE OVERALL for the ENTIRE SEASON. I'm not saying base it on 4 weeks, base it on ALL the weeks and he STILL ended up 9th. Pete Carrol started him off slow and then gave him more and more rope. I wouldn't project the last 4 weeks into 2013. However, I don't think Carrol will be holding Wilson back in 2013. The gloves have come off, and looking at the scoreboard, Pete doesn't seem to be concerned about putting too many points on the board. I think this will lead to guys drafting Russell at #12...but if he continues to develop, I like the odds of him finishing better than 9 next year at a #12-#14 price tag.

If you can get him at 12-14, then that is obviously great. But remember, if you are looking to get a QB1, you should be shooting a lot higher than hoping for a top-9 finish. Additionally, a few points to remember:First, I don't think, in most leagues, he was actually 9th overall. At least in my league, which is a "fairly standard" (4pt passing TD, 1pt/20passing, 1pt/10 rushing, -1 pt turnover) scoring league, he was 11th overall, 13th in PPG (if you include Kaepernick's starts only).Second, if you think he is going to move up, you have to think about who he is going to pass. Barring injuries, we have:Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Newton, RG3, Ryan as your top-7 last year. Following this, you have Romo, Stafford, and Luck. I could see Romo's yards and PPG dropping some, but you would expect the other two to actually improve upon 2012. You also have Kaepernick, who was producing greater than these three in PPG. Roethelisberger and then Wilson followed, at 12th and 13th in PPG. I like Wilson, but I realistically think that 10th is his upside, barring injuries. I don't see any of the top 7, Stafford, or Luck scoring less than him in 2013, and I could easily see him having a pretty good "NFL-year", while finishing at QB-15 or so.

All good points, Boltz. I doubt he is available at 12. I could realistically (assuming he doesn't regress of course) see him outproduce RG3, Ryan, Romo, Luck, and Stafford our my league. Ryan and RG3 only outproduced him by 20 points. He outproduced Stafford, Luck, and Romo this year as it is.Just a good, under the radar guy to keep an eye out for. It is likely a safer bet to take Ryan, Luck and MAYBE Stafford over him...but to each his own.

Out of curiosity, what is the scoring system of your league where he outscored Stafford, Luck, and Romo? I have him 2+ PPG behind each of them in both my leagues.

 

[zftcg]

For what it's worth...Russell Wilson was the #1 scoring QB in our league during the final 4 games of the season in spite of Seattle's Defense and running game.He was also the #9 overall QB for the entire season in spite of being brought along slowly.

4 games is just a really small sample size. He finished 11th in my league, 12th in PPG, and 13th in PPG if you only use Kaepernick's games while starting. I think he can certainly make some improvements, and finish next year in the 7-10 range, but that second tier of QBs all have a lot of good things going for them and their isn't any way to predict (in my mind) how that group of QBs will finish up, except me guessing that they all end up fairly similar by years end.

Yea there's no way I'm drafting Wilson above QB12 next year. Drafting based on the last few games is dangerous thinking. He's obviously a high-upside QB2, though. That offense just isn't going to pass enough for him to ever be a top fantasy option, and he doesn't have the build of Cam to be able to get regular rushing yards/TDs.

The impressive part for me was the sentence that said Wilson finished 9THE OVERALL for the ENTIRE SEASON. I'm not saying base it on 4 weeks, base it on ALL the weeks and he STILL ended up 9th. Pete Carrol started him off slow and then gave him more and more rope. I wouldn't project the last 4 weeks into 2013. However, I don't think Carrol will be holding Wilson back in 2013. The gloves have come off, and looking at the scoreboard, Pete doesn't seem to be concerned about putting too many points on the board. I think this will lead to guys drafting Russell at #12...but if he continues to develop, I like the odds of him finishing better than 9 next year at a #12-#14 price tag.

If you can get him at 12-14, then that is obviously great. But remember, if you are looking to get a QB1, you should be shooting a lot higher than hoping for a top-9 finish. Additionally, a few points to remember:First, I don't think, in most leagues, he was actually 9th overall. At least in my league, which is a "fairly standard" (4pt passing TD, 1pt/20passing, 1pt/10 rushing, -1 pt turnover) scoring league, he was 11th overall, 13th in PPG (if you include Kaepernick's starts only).Second, if you think he is going to move up, you have to think about who he is going to pass. Barring injuries, we have:Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Newton, RG3, Ryan as your top-7 last year. Following this, you have Romo, Stafford, and Luck. I could see Romo's yards and PPG dropping some, but you would expect the other two to actually improve upon 2012. You also have Kaepernick, who was producing greater than these three in PPG. Roethelisberger and then Wilson followed, at 12th and 13th in PPG. I like Wilson, but I realistically think that 10th is his upside, barring injuries. I don't see any of the top 7, Stafford, or Luck scoring less than him in 2013, and I could easily see him having a pretty good "NFL-year", while finishing at QB-15 or so.

All good points, Boltz. I doubt he is available at 12. I could realistically (assuming he doesn't regress of course) see him outproduce RG3, Ryan, Romo, Luck, and Stafford our my league. Ryan and RG3 only outproduced him by 20 points. He outproduced Stafford, Luck, and Romo this year as it is.Just a good, under the radar guy to keep an eye out for. It is likely a safer bet to take Ryan, Luck and MAYBE Stafford over him...but to each his own.

Out of curiosity, what is the scoring system of your league where he outscored Stafford, Luck, and Romo? I have him 2+ PPG behind each of them in both my leagues.

I'm not the one you asked, but in my league (0.25 PPC, 6 pts/pass TD, 20 yds = 1 pt) he was No. 12. Honestly, I can't see myself ending up with Wilson next year. He just seems like that classic tweener: not reliable enough for a QB1, too good for a QB2. Only way it would happen is if I miss out on a run on QB1s and end up with a lower-end guy like Ben or Luck. In that case, I might feel a need to reach early for a QB2, and hope one of them makes the leap.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Out of curiosity, what is the scoring system of your league where he outscored Stafford, Luck, and Romo? I have him 2+ PPG behind each of them in both my leagues.

According to PFO's Fantasy stats, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/fantasy.htm :
Rk Tm Age G GS Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds Y/A TD FantPos FantPt PosRk9 Tony Romo DAL 32 16 16 425 648 4903 28 19 30 49 1.63 1 QB 279 8 10 Andrew Luck IND 23 16 15 339 627 4374 23 18 62 255 4.11 5 QB 276 911 Russell Wilson SEA 24 16 16 252 393 3118 26 10 94 489 5.20 4 QB 276 912 Matthew StaffordDET 24 16 15 435 727 4967 20 17 35 126 3.60 4 QB 276 9I'm pretty sure this uses a standard 4-pt pass TD / 6-pt rush TD / -2 pt INT scoring system.Note that Wilson got into this group with 230 fewer pass attempts than any other guy on this list! There is a strong case to be made that if he puts the ball up ~550 times next year, he could be knocking on the door of top-5 performance - in other words, Manning-like numbers at an ADP 2-3 rounds later. Sounds like the definition of "buy low" to me.