Players Who Could be Quality "Buy Lows" in Redraft 2013 (1 Viewer)

[jonboltz]

Out of curiosity, what is the scoring system of your league where he outscored Stafford, Luck, and Romo? I have him 2+ PPG behind each of them in both my leagues.

According to PFO's Fantasy stats, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/fantasy.htm :
Rk Tm Age G GS Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds Y/A TD FantPos FantPt PosRk9 Tony Romo DAL 32 16 16 425 648 4903 28 19 30 49 1.63 1 QB 279 8 10 Andrew Luck IND 23 16 15 339 627 4374 23 18 62 255 4.11 5 QB 276 911 Russell Wilson SEA 24 16 16 252 393 3118 26 10 94 489 5.20 4 QB 276 912 Matthew StaffordDET 24 16 15 435 727 4967 20 17 35 126 3.60 4 QB 276 9I'm pretty sure this uses a standard 4-pt pass TD / 6-pt rush TD / -2 pt INT scoring system.Note that Wilson got into this group with 230 fewer pass attempts than any other guy on this list! There is a strong case to be made that if he puts the ball up ~550 times next year, he could be knocking on the door of top-5 performance - in other words, Manning-like numbers at an ADP 2-3 rounds later. Sounds like the definition of "buy low" to me.

Seems to use a 1pt per 25 yards passing scoring. All my leagues use 1pt / 20 yards passing, and that really adds up when you have the difference in total yards.RE: passing attempts -- I certainly expect Wilson to throw more next year, but I doubt its anywhere near 200 times. I think another 75-100 is more likely, at most, barring a Lynch injury.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Out of curiosity, what is the scoring system of your league where he outscored Stafford, Luck, and Romo? I have him 2+ PPG behind each of them in both my leagues.

According to PFO's Fantasy stats, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/fantasy.htm :
Rk Tm Age G GS Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds Y/A TD FantPos FantPt PosRk9 Tony Romo DAL 32 16 16 425 648 4903 28 19 30 49 1.63 1 QB 279 8 10 Andrew Luck IND 23 16 15 339 627 4374 23 18 62 255 4.11 5 QB 276 911 Russell Wilson SEA 24 16 16 252 393 3118 26 10 94 489 5.20 4 QB 276 912 Matthew StaffordDET 24 16 15 435 727 4967 20 17 35 126 3.60 4 QB 276 9I'm pretty sure this uses a standard 4-pt pass TD / 6-pt rush TD / -2 pt INT scoring system.Note that Wilson got into this group with 230 fewer pass attempts than any other guy on this list! There is a strong case to be made that if he puts the ball up ~550 times next year, he could be knocking on the door of top-5 performance - in other words, Manning-like numbers at an ADP 2-3 rounds later. Sounds like the definition of "buy low" to me.

Seems to use a 1pt per 25 yards passing scoring. All my leagues use 1pt / 20 yards passing, and that really adds up when you have the difference in total yards.RE: passing attempts -- I certainly expect Wilson to throw more next year, but I doubt its anywhere near 200 times. I think another 75-100 is more likely, at most, barring a Lynch injury.

The average NFL team put the ball in the air 556 times this season. Seattle, at 405, ranked dead last - nearly 2 APG less than the 31st-ranked 49ers.You don't have to assume Pete Carroll's suddenly going to turn into Andy Reid to project 500 attempts next season. 550 might be a stretch, but even 500 at 8 YPA gives Wilson 856 yards (35-40 points) more than this year. That takes him into Manning territory even without a single additional TD or rushing yard (which he honestly might not get - 26 TDs was kind of an outlier figure for a guy with only 252 completions).

I don't disagree that he'd likely be a real risky QB1 option, but he'd be my top choice if I couldn't get one of the top 4 QBs and wanted someone to pair with a Romo / Manning / Ryan next season.

 

[nb009]

I like Blackmon's value as well.....as long as Henne is the QB. If JAX goes out and gets Tebow, all bets are off on that.

It is widely believed that Jaguars owner Shahid Khan loves him some Tim Tebow.It should not be believed by anyone that new G.M. Dave Caldwell shares that view.“I can’t imagine a scenario where he’d be a Jacksonville Jaguar,” Caldwell said of Tebow at an introductory press conference, via multiple reports.If Khan truly wanted Tebow, Khan could have imposed that condition on anyone hired as G.M. and head coach. Of course, Khan in turn may have had an even harder time hiring a G.M. and a coach than Jets owner Woody Johnson is having hiring a G.M. with Rex Ryan in place as the head coach.

Things are looking better for Blackmon. Hopefully he goes under the radar this offseason.