Playoff Draft Rankings (1 Viewer)

[WarRedbirds]

The following predicted number of games was used to determine the players total scoring for the playoffs:

CAR 1.85

CHI 1.35

CIN 1.40

DEN 2.10

IND 3.00

JAC 1.60

NWE 2.40

NYG 1.75

PIT 2.00

SEA 2.50

TAM 1.30

WAS 1.50

This number was than multiplied by the players average score per game during the season, and then minor adjustments were made.

Scoring is decimal scoring, no PPR, 4pts passing TD, 6 pts other TD.

Rushing

6 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each 2-point conversion.

.1 points for each yard rushing (1 point every 10 yards).

-2 points for each fumble lost.

Receiving

6 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each 2-point conversion.

.1 points for each yard receiving (1 point every 10

yards).

-2 points for each fumble lost.

Passing

4 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each 2-point conversion.

.04 points for each yard passing (1 point for every 25

yards).

-2 points for each interception.

Kicking

3 points for each successful FG.

.1 bonus point for each yard of FG above 40 yards,

example: 47 yard FG = 3.7 points.

1 point for each successful XP.

-1 point for each missed FG or XP.

Special Teams/Defense

6 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each safety.

.5 point for each sack recorded.

1 points for each fumble recovered.

1 points for each interception.

Points for total points allowed:

10 points for 0 to 2 points allowed.

7 points for 3 to 6 points allowed.

4 points for 7 to 10 points allowed.

1 point for 11 to 13 points allowed.

0 points for 14 to 27 points allowed.

-1 points for 28 to 33 points allowed.

-4 points for 34 to 39 points allowed.

-7 points for 40 to 47 points allowed.

-10 points for 48 to 100 points allowed

Player, Team, Conference, Score for Playoffs

Quarterback

Peyton Manning IND A 45.63

Tom Brady NWE A 37.44

Matt Hasselbeck SEA N 36.03

Jake Plummer DEN A 28.73

Ben Roethlisberger PIT A 28.16

Eli Manning NYG N 24.66

Carson Palmer CIN A 23.35

Jake Delhomme CAR N 23.00

Byron Leftwich JAC A 21.47

Mark Brunell WAS N 18.35

Chris Simms TAM N 12.18

Rex Grossman CHI N 6.99

David Garrard JAC A 3.20

Running Back

Shaun Alexander SEA N 56.53

Edgerrin James IND A 53.26

Corey Dillon NWE A 36.52

Tiki Barber NYG N 33.36

Mike Anderson DEN A 27.52

Willie Parker PIT A 23.01

Clinton Portis WAS N 22.73

Tatum Bell DEN A 22.28

Rudi Johnson CIN A 19.87

Thomas Jones CHI N 17.90

DeShaun Foster CAR N 17.44

Jerome Bettis PIT A 17.24

Fred Taylor JAC A 16.94

Carnell Williams TAM N 15.79

Dominic Rhodes IND A 12.30

Kevin Faulk NWE A 10.92

Greg Jones JAC A 10.06

Maurice Morris SEA N 9.00

Brandon Jacobs NYG N 8.73

Ron Dayne DEN A 8.58

Verron Haynes PIT A 7.83

Michael Pittman TAM N 7.42

Chris Perry CIN A 7.07

Ladell Betts WAS N 6.76

Mike Alstott TAM N 6.43

Adrian Peterson CHI N 5.81

Nick Goings CAR N 5.25

Alvin Pearman JAC A 4.78

Jeremi Johnson CIN A 3.64

LaBrandon Toefield JAC A 2.40

Patrick Pass NWE A 2.40

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Marvin Harrison IND A 39.58

Reggie Wayne IND A 28.59

Steve Smith CAR N 27.17

Darrell Jackson SEA N 22.50

Hines Ward PIT A 21.68

Deion Branch NWE A 19.47

Santana Moss WAS N 18.83

Rod Smith DEN A 18.80

Plaxico Burress NYG N 17.65

Chad Johnson CIN A 17.55

T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN A 14.81

Joey Galloway TAM N 14.46

Bobby Engram SEA N 14.28

Jimmy Smith JAC A 13.83

Joe Jurevicius SEA N 13.75

Jeremy Shockey NYG N 13.65

Dallas Clark IND A 13.65

Jerramy Stevens SEA N 13.35

David Givens NWE A 13.07

Amani Toomer NYG N 12.08

Ashley Lelie DEN A 12.00

Muhsin Muhammad CHI N 11.34

Brandon Stokley IND A 11.31

Chris Cooley WAS N 11.01

Ernest Wilford JAC A 11.01

Antwaan Randle El PIT A 10.25

Heath Miller PIT A 10.24

Ben Watson NWE A 9.91

Troy Brown NWE A 8.79

Matt Jones JAC A 8.02

Tim Dwight NWE A 7.94

Ricky Proehl CAR N 7.87

Chris Henry CIN A 6.67

Jeb Putzier DEN A 6.57

Troy Walters IND A 6.23

Edell Shepherd TAM N --

Cedrick Wilson PIT A 5.64

Ike Hilliard TAM N 5.20

D.J. Hackett SEA N 5.00

Keary Colbert CAR N 4.49

Reggie Williams JAC A 4.35

Justin Gage CHI N 3.93

Andre' Davis NWE A 3.75

Quincy Morgan PIT A 3.38

Tim Carter NYG N 2.54

Kevin Walter CIN A 2.39

Bernard Berrian CHI N 2.34

David Patten WAS N 2.03

Kicker

Mike Vanderjagt IND A 22.83

Josh Brown SEA N 17.25

Adam Vinatieri NWE A 14.47

Jason Elam DEN A 14.60

Jeff Reed PIT A 14.16

John Kasay CAR N 13.65

Jay Feely NYG N 16.15

Josh Scobee JAC A 10.30

John Hall WAS N 5.81

Shayne Graham CIN A 11.38

Robbie Gould CHI N 6.40

Matt Bryant TAM N 7.66

Defense

IND A 20.91

SEA N 15.23

DEN A 13.84

CAR N 13.76

PIT A 13.06

CHI N 11.65

NYG N 11.10

JAC A 8.90

NWE A 8.11

WAS N 7.92

TAM N 7.51

CIN A 6.08

 

[ramsfan]

AWESOME!!!A couple of questions- what scoring system did you use?- Also, if I want to adjust the games played, say I choose to change Indy from 3 to 2.7 (a 10% reduction in games played), would it be accurate based on how you did these projections, to reduce all Colts players scoring by 10%?Note: I am not saying I would reduce Indy, this is just an example....TIA!!

 

[WarRedbirds]

AWESOME!!!

A couple of questions

- what scoring system did you use?

Rushing 6 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each 2-point conversion.

.1 points for each yard rushing (1 point every 10 yards).

-2 points for each fumble lost.

Receiving

6 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each 2-point conversion.

.1 points for each yard receiving (1 point every 10

yards).

-2 points for each fumble lost.

Passing

4 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each 2-point conversion.

.04 points for each yard passing (1 point for every 25

yards).

-2 points for each interception.

Kicking

3 points for each successful FG.

.1 bonus point for each yard of FG above 40 yards,

example: 47 yard FG = 3.7 points.

1 point for each successful XP.

-1 point for each missed FG or XP.

Special Teams/Defense

6 points for each touchdown.

2 points for each safety.

.5 point for each sack recorded.

1 points for each fumble recovered.

1 points for each interception.

Points for total points allowed:

10 points for 0 to 2 points allowed.

7 points for 3 to 6 points allowed.

4 points for 7 to 10 points allowed.

1 point for 11 to 13 points allowed.

0 points for 14 to 27 points allowed.

-1 points for 28 to 33 points allowed.

-4 points for 34 to 39 points allowed.

-7 points for 40 to 47 points allowed.

-10 points for 48 to 100 points allowed

- Also, if I want to adjust the games played, say I choose to change Indy from 3 to 2.7 (a 10% reduction in games played), would it be accurate based on how you did these projections, to reduce all Colts players scoring by 10%?

Note: I am not saying I would reduce Indy, this is just an example....

TIA!!

Basically, that's how it works. I have a spreadsheet of all of this. I can send it to you and you can generate your own if you'd like. PM me and I'll send it out.

 

[gorf]

i do something similar, although my "games played" numbers are much more compressed. here are the numbers i used:Ind 2.050Den 1.850Cin 1.900NE 1.900Jax 1.600Pit 1.700Sea 2.050Chi 1.900TB 1.800NYG 1.800Car 1.700Was 1.750you want to make sure the total adds up to 22 (since there are 11 playoff games to be played, with 2 teams playing in each game). then make sure that's split evenly with 11 games allocated to NFC teams and 11 to AFC teams.i think the numbers should be closer together than what the OP is using. for example, assigning an expected value of 3 games played to indianapolis is not very sound statistically -- that essentially discounts any possibility that they lose before the super bowl. granted, i don't think they're going to either, but you have to account for the possibility -- otherwise why bother using decimals at all -- we're looking for an expected value here. also, i can't see having any teams as low as 1.3 and 1.35. that would mean TB, for instance, has a 30% chance of winning its game (which is low for any playoff game), and then if it wins, it has no chance of winning another game beyond that. can we really say chicago has only a 35% chance of winning its home game against whoever it is they wind up playing?anyway, those are my thoughts. i think this is a good exercise, so i don't mean to be too critical, but that's how i'd do it.

 

[WarRedbirds]

i do something similar, although my "games played" numbers are much more compressed. here are the numbers i used:

Ind 2.050

Den 1.850

Cin 1.900

NE 1.900

Jax 1.600

Pit 1.700

Sea 2.050

Chi 1.900

TB 1.800

NYG 1.800

Car 1.700

Was 1.750

you want to make sure the total adds up to 22 (since there are 11 playoff games to be played, with 2 teams playing in each game). then make sure that's split evenly with 11 games allocated to NFC teams and 11 to AFC teams.

i think the numbers should be closer together than what the OP is using. for example, assigning an expected value of 3 games played to indianapolis is not very sound statistically -- that essentially discounts any possibility that they lose before the super bowl. granted, i don't think they're going to either, but you have to account for the possibility -- otherwise why bother using decimals at all -- we're looking for an expected value here. also, i can't see having any teams as low as 1.3 and 1.35. that would mean TB, for instance, has a 30% chance of winning its game (which is low for any playoff game), and then if it wins, it has no chance of winning another game beyond that. can we really say chicago has only a 35% chance of winning its home game against whoever it is they wind up playing?

anyway, those are my thoughts. i think this is a good exercise, so i don't mean to be too critical, but that's how i'd do it.

Good points. Thanks for the feedback. I weighted a little heavy on some of my favorites in order to get a better chance of drafting players from those favorites. I might need to pull that back a bit.

 

[zoonation]

Nice work!!the only problem is that you have Indy at 3.00 and NE at 2.4 yet they will play in the second round. You need to move Indy's number down from 3 to account for NE's 2.4

 

[WarRedbirds]

Nice work!!

the only problem is that you have Indy at 3.00 and NE at 2.4 yet they will play in the second round. You need to move Indy's number down from 3 to account for NE's 2.4

New England is not guaranteed to play Indy in the second round. If Pittsburgh defeats Cincy, than New England will play Denver (I believe).Also, I like either Indy or New England to make a run, so I'll stock up on either teams players. Once I draft a player from either of those teams, I'll then focus on players from that team and avoid the other, than hope it all plays out the way I drafted.