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Playoff Strategy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter DWidmar
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Not exactly apples to apples but here's an example from this week. My opponent starter LT and Gates. After seeing the Thursday nite results I shifted my QB from Garcia to Favre. One of my RBs is Thomas Jones. I felt I had my opponent covers at the other positions. While I expected Garcia to post better numbers than Favre, I could also envision him posting a clunker and Favre eating up all of Jones' TDs. Since I was playing to win and not post the most points, I switched my QB looking to lock in points and avoid a disaster. Worked out well for me. My league only values W's in the playoffs, not margin of victory.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
IMHO, the 2 most important factors are how closely do you rate your 2 qb's and do you think you are a strong favorite over your opponent. IMO Warner is a stronger play and all though I do think your team is the favorite I do not think it is an overwhelming one. I face a somewhat similar situation this week and when I started out in this thread I was fairly certain that my opinion would be that you should start Cutler and negate your opponents points. However, after looking at the 2 lineups I would tend to lean toward you sticking with Warner (if the Williams's r out there is no question). It is definitely a close call, but that is what this wonderfully maddening game is all about! GL!FWIW, I have Brees who I have played all year and obviously been very happy with; however, I also have Warner and my opponent happens to have Fitz. Without getting into too many details, I think I have a much stronger lineup (particulary this week, Westbrook, D. Williams, C. Johnson) than my opponent who's strongest position is wr. I also think that since Brees is outdoors and on the road, Warner is probably the right (safer) play. With all that said I am leaning toward Warner. However, I would be lying if I said I knew for sure what I am going to do; my head says play Warner, but my heart says stay with Brees.
Start Cutler...he and Warner are very close, hedging your bet is a good option at this point.
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DWidmar
Footballguy
In our scoring system, Warner and Cutler are at almost a tie over the last 6 weeks and the last three weeks. It really is within two points.Cutler has no running game and will be forced to pass and thus could put up big numbers. Warner against the Minny pass defense should be a field day. Not sure I could go wrong either way.
As of now I have Cutler in the line up as Carolina's defense doesnt seem to be as dominant right now as it has been and Denver is fighting for a playoff spot, they have no running game and my opponent has three of his players.
That could change though as the game gets closer.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I disagree. Your rosters are close; no clear favorite/underdog in this matchup, so I would attempt to maximize points with Warner.
DWidmar
Footballguy
Either scenario is fine. He only outscored your QB by 11 with 3 players against 1. Now you have 3 players going against his QB
I didnt know if this was a good thing or a bad thing. I started looking at some numbers from my league on a week by week basis. Not any real earth shattering info here but I compared my QB vs opponents WR1, WR2 and TE. Here is what I found.
week win/loss - MY QB - WR1,WR2,TE points - variance to his players
1 L - 14 - 41 - -27
2 W - 34 - 18 - +16
3 W - 23 - 12 - +11
4 L - 25 - 59 - -34
5 L - 17 - 34 - -17
6 W - 20 - 2 - +18
7 W - 14 - 43 - -29
8 L - 22 - 23 - -1
9 W - 25 - 19 - +6
10 W - 30 - 41 - -11
11 W - 15 - 13 - +2(THIS WAS VS HIS TEAM CUTLER VS SAME THREE)
12 W - 12 - 24 - -12
13 L - 24 - 29 - -5 (WARNER FOR ME, FITZ FOR HIM)
14 W - 18 - 13 - +5
Every time I outscore those three players from the QB position I won. Makes perfect sense though as when one player can outproduce 3 that should greatly increase your odds of winning. (helps towards the just "score the most points" side)
Looking at it from keeping my QB points to only 11 points behind those three doesnt seem to bode will for me as I was 2 for 4 in that scenario (supports the whole "hedge your bets" side when you are the favorite)
Small sample size to look at. In week 11 I did play Cutler against him (only to taunt him cuz he wanted him in a trade but was not giving up enough, not to protect myself.) It did work that week and my WR1, WR2, TE outscored his QB by 13 that week.
So in essence, I agree that I should try to put up the most points, unless I seem to be a favorite to win the game. The rest of our matchups are fairly close and could go either way. While I like the "hedge your bets" thoughts I am not sure in this secnario it does me much good. (on MFL I am favored by only 7 pts) for what thats worth
Edited to try to space numbers but could not??
I didnt know if this was a good thing or a bad thing. I started looking at some numbers from my league on a week by week basis. Not any real earth shattering info here but I compared my QB vs opponents WR1, WR2 and TE. Here is what I found.
week win/loss - MY QB - WR1,WR2,TE points - variance to his players
1 L - 14 - 41 - -27
2 W - 34 - 18 - +16
3 W - 23 - 12 - +11
4 L - 25 - 59 - -34
5 L - 17 - 34 - -17
6 W - 20 - 2 - +18
7 W - 14 - 43 - -29
8 L - 22 - 23 - -1
9 W - 25 - 19 - +6
10 W - 30 - 41 - -11
11 W - 15 - 13 - +2(THIS WAS VS HIS TEAM CUTLER VS SAME THREE)
12 W - 12 - 24 - -12
13 L - 24 - 29 - -5 (WARNER FOR ME, FITZ FOR HIM)
14 W - 18 - 13 - +5
Every time I outscore those three players from the QB position I won. Makes perfect sense though as when one player can outproduce 3 that should greatly increase your odds of winning. (helps towards the just "score the most points" side)
Looking at it from keeping my QB points to only 11 points behind those three doesnt seem to bode will for me as I was 2 for 4 in that scenario (supports the whole "hedge your bets" side when you are the favorite)
Small sample size to look at. In week 11 I did play Cutler against him (only to taunt him cuz he wanted him in a trade but was not giving up enough, not to protect myself.) It did work that week and my WR1, WR2, TE outscored his QB by 13 that week.
So in essence, I agree that I should try to put up the most points, unless I seem to be a favorite to win the game. The rest of our matchups are fairly close and could go either way. While I like the "hedge your bets" thoughts I am not sure in this secnario it does me much good. (on MFL I am favored by only 7 pts) for what thats worth
Edited to try to space numbers but could not??
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