Please tell me why I'm WRONG (1 Viewer)

[CHOF]

Reggie seems to be the hype of the pre season. I konw that FBGs is very high on him (They made him their magazine coverboy). I just don't buy into it. Below I will give my reasons. I don't believe in giving opinions without backing them up.

I'm just looking for your thoughts here so I didn't spend a lot of hours to reasearch. So if some of my info is off a little bit, please don't crucify my for it. Again, this about making a point. Not data anaylisis.

First lets list the positives. He is a terriffic player. (That includes his speed, field vision, receiving abilities etc...) This is not in question. But we all know that that's not enough in FF. You need to be on the field, and have a good supporting cast, a nice schedule dosen't hurt either. Jarry Johnson, Lamont Jordan, and Shaun Alexander wern't very pupular before they became starters.

On the negitive side,

1. He's a rookie - Other then E. James and C. Portis, I can't think of too many rookie RBs who went wire to wire and were *VALUABLE* in the fantasy PLAYOFFS. If you draft this guy as your RB2 and he's out of gas by week 15 you could be in trouble. Even LT slowed down in his rookie season. These guys are used to playing 11 to 12 games, not 16.

2. He is a New Orleans Saint - The saints will trail in most of their games (their schedule is horrible! I will hit that next) He will excel is the passing game because of this. But lets look around him. His offensive is in the bottom third of the league. Drew Brees should be ok. But he is in a new system. Joe Horn is a nother year older. And D. Stallworth has never been consistant. Bush will be the focal point of every defense he faces.

3. Schedule - Now lets see those defenses that will focus on him. He'll face Carolina, Tampa, and Atlanta twice each for 6 games. The Saints draw the NFC East this year which means, Dallas, Philadelphia, NY Giants, and Washington. In the AFC, they get the north. So bring on Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. There other 2 NFC games are against Green Bay and San Francisco. Cleveland and SF are the only cake walks I see here. Green Bay finished pretty well last season. And Cincinnati should be better with another year under Marvin Lewis. By the way, his FF PLAYOFF schedule...wks 14-17 is @Dallas, Washington, @NY Giants, and Carolina. Each week, you'll look at his opponent and say. Damn, who can I start in his place?

4. Opportunity - Yes he will be on the field!!! a lot!!! But Deuce McAlister is still there, and until his injury, was a top 5 pick most years. And if Deuce dosen't start (which he will if we get into a long hold out situation with Reggie) He will steal most of the short TDs from Bush.

5 AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...VALUE - This guy is flying under no one's radar. You can't possibly get him at a value. On the contrary, you will have to reach for him, and that's never a good thing.

I would love to hear your thoughts, especially those of the FBGs who like him so much.

For me,

I just can't get get on the band wagon of a guy who has never played an NFL down,

Probably won't be an asset come playoff time,

Plays for a team without much of a supporting cast,

Plays a very brutal schedule (and a lot of the defenses he plays aren't just good...there very physical),

Will have to share carries and lose goalline carries,

Not to mention, a player that I will have to pay to much for.

Thanks for reading.

 

[Musesboy]

I think most of those that are high on him are taking the view that McAllister will not get most of the work due to the time it generally takes to come back from ACL surgery.

I share all of your concerns and think he is going too early in redraft leagues.

 

[CHOF]

"

"I share all of your concerns and think he is going too early in redraft leagues. "Thanks for bringing the redraft league up. In keeper leagues he has a great future. It's just that I don't see him succeeding this season

 

[Chaz]

Your points about the tough schedule and possibilty of wearing down are dead on, IMO. Not to mention the value aspect.

I would never say I'm not taking a player, but I just know that others will value him more than I will.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

a lot of people thought Mike Williams would dominate at WR after how well he did at USC. I don't think Bush will turn out the same way, but he certainly played on some stacked teams at USC and probably won't do as well on one of the worst teams in the NFL. It's very easy to fall in love with the kid after watching him play though.

I think he's one of the most difficult players to project this year. We're not sure how much of a workload he'll get with Deuce around but coming back from an injury. We're not sure if Reggie can handle the workload of being a feature RB. We're not sure how long he'll hold out or how much that will affect him. In PPR leagues, his upside certainly warrants a pretty high selection. But, I agree that he's probably being overrated in standard leagues right now.

In dynasty leagues, his trade value is probably through the roof. Could probably deal him to the highest bidder and set yourself up for a long time.

 

[Musesboy]

=CHOF,Jul 22 2006, 11:55 AM]

Thanks for bringing the redraft league up. In keeper leagues he has a great future. It's just that I don't see him succeeding this season

He could be great in the future. If nothing else, you could command a high price in a keeper or dynasty trade.My reservations are just for redraft. Even there, it might happen for him this year. I just think the price is wrong in that format.

 

[Padraig]

I dont disagree with your points,but McGahee,Dom Davis, Kevin Jones and Droughns all have some of the same negatives and all have a higher ADP than Bush. Poor supporting cast,sharing carries,tough schedule,bad teams that will be playing from behind etc...And none of them have Bushs talent.

Im not making a case for taking him,in fact I dont want him this year unless he falls a few rounds,but I see why people ignore the negatives.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

I think your best point is about his value. There's not much room for upside to where he's being drafted.

That said, I think there is enough talent on that offense. Horn and Stallworth certainly merit attention from a defense. Brees has shown a propensity to throw to his RB and TE so he should get plenty of touches.

Schedule would be more of a concern if he were the every down back, but he will be getting the ball in different ways, not having to pound out yardage against tough defenses.

You say that rookies often wear down (which is true) but then you also say that his opportunities will be limited by Deuce. Wouldn't that keep him fresher for the end of the season?

I'd have a tough time passing on him any time after pick 3.6. He can score from anywhere on the field and will get plenty of touches. In PPR I think he could finish top 15.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I dont disagree with your points,but McGahee,Dom Davis, Kevin Jones and Droughns all have some of the same negatives and all have a higher ADP than Bush. Poor supporting cast,sharing carries,tough schedule,bad teams that will be playing from behind etc...And none of them have Bushs talent.

none of those guys have a RB half as good as Deuce McAllister competing with them for carries...and they should all be the primary GL back for their respective teams, unlike Reggie.

 

[Padraig]

If his contract negotiations dont improve quickly,you can add another negative.

He may be another Cedric Benson.

 

[MLBrandow]

I like Bush for a ceiling of about 1000/10 all purpose. I read somewhere they plan on using Deuce as a LenDale White type and giving him most of the redzone work, which is a big plus to me. Also remember though, his value is in PPR leagues as a receiver, and he should eat well into Stallworth's numbers.

I think his ADP is about right, although it's certainly not a "steal".

 

[FreeBaGeL]

1. He's a rookie - Other then E. James and C. Portis, I can't think of too many rookie RBs who went wire to wire and were *VALUABLE* in the fantasy PLAYOFFS. If you draft this guy as your RB2 and he's out of gas by week 15 you could be in trouble. Even LT slowed down in his rookie season. These guys are used to playing 11 to 12 games, not 16.

He's also a 3rd or 4th round pick in redrafts despite the hype. How many 3rd round RBs go wire to wire and are "*VALUABLE* in the fantasy PLAYOFFS"?

I just can't get get on the band wagon of a guy who has never played an NFL down,

You make some good points in your post (schedule, etc). This is not one of them. Where do you have guys like Ronnie and Caddy? Higher than round 3 I'm sure. But what you probably don't realize and something that is often overlooked is that second year guys coming off of strong rookie years seem to be just as likely to bust as the rookies themselves. You don't have to go far to come up with a long, long list of this. Anthony Thomas, Willie Green, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, etc. The whole "has never played an NFL down" thing is the most overused, underwhelming argument in fantasy football right now.

Probably won't be an asset come playoff time

Why? If anything it seems rookies (especially in situations with another good RB on the team and hence aren't expected to start out of the gates) are often weak at the beginning of the year and strong during playoff time. Guys like William Green, KJ, JJ, etc who weren't carrying the load right out of the gates put up their best numbers by far down the stretch during FF playoff time. Sure, the opposite is true for rookies who start getting 25 carries from day 1, but that is not the situation Bush is in. I would be more worried about Bush being useless at the beginning of the season than the end considering the workload he'll likely get early on.Also, again he's a 3rd or 4th round pick. What have the other 3rd/4th rounders ever done to show they're going to "probably" be an asset come playoff time? Domanick Davis can barely stay healthy on a good year and he's going into this year less healthy than he's ever been. KJ can't stay healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. Jamal hasn't been healthy for two years. Chester has never gotten nearly the workload he may be getting now and has certainly done nothing more than Bush to prove he'll be going strong at the end of the year. Westy has never played more than 12 games and never scored a touchdown or gone for 100 yards at the end of the season.The bottom line is this would all make sense if we're talking about a top pick, but you can make a laundry list of reasons not to take any RB (even the big 3 -- you could make this kind of post about any RB in the league), ESPECIALLY a 3rd-4th round RB.As was well pointed out above all the guys around Bush have similar questions and half the talent. And heck, you could also say you'd rather have a guy who hasn't proven either way whether or not he can stay healthy over some of the guys being taken around Bush who have proven they can't. I'm not saying I would take Bush over those guys in a redraft, but you can certainly raise just as long a list of questions about everyone around him.I will say though that your points about the schedule are right on. Man is that thing brutal.

 

[Musesboy]

1. He's a rookie - Other then E. James and C. Portis, I can't think of too many rookie RBs who went wire to wire and were *VALUABLE* in the fantasy PLAYOFFS. If you draft this guy as your RB2 and he's out of gas by week 15 you could be in trouble. Even LT slowed down in his rookie season. These guys are used to playing 11 to 12 games, not 16.

He's also a 3rd or 4th round pick in redrafts despite the hype. How many 3rd round RBs go wire to wire and are "*VALUABLE* in the fantasy PLAYOFFS"?

I just can't get get on the band wagon of a guy who has never played an NFL down,

You make some good points in your post (schedule, etc). This is not one of them. Where do you have guys like Ronnie and Caddy? Higher than round 3 I'm sure. But what you probably don't realize and something that is often overlooked is that second year guys coming off of strong rookie years seem to be just as likely to bust as the rookies themselves. You don't have to go far to come up with a long, long list of this. Anthony Thomas, Willie Green, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, etc. The whole "has never played an NFL down" thing is the most overused, underwhelming argument in fantasy football right now.

Probably won't be an asset come playoff time

Why? If anything it seems rookies (especially in situations with another good RB on the team and hence aren't expected to start out of the gates) are often weak at the beginning of the year and strong during playoff time. Guys like William Green, KJ, JJ, etc who weren't carrying the load right out of the gates put up their best numbers by far down the stretch during FF playoff time. Sure, the opposite is true for rookies who start getting 25 carries from day 1, but that is not the situation Bush is in. I would be more worried about Bush being useless at the beginning of the season than the end considering the workload he'll likely get early on.Also, again he's a 3rd or 4th round pick. What have the other 3rd/4th rounders ever done to show they're going to "probably" be an asset come playoff time? Domanick Davis can barely stay healthy on a good year and he's going into this year less healthy than he's ever been. KJ can't stay healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. Jamal hasn't been healthy for two years. Chester has never gotten nearly the workload he may be getting now and has certainly done nothing more than Bush to prove he'll be going strong at the end of the year. Westy has never played more than 12 games and never scored a touchdown or gone for 100 yards at the end of the season.

The bottom line is this would all make sense if we're talking about a top pick, but you can make a laundry list of reasons not to take any RB (even the big 3 -- you could make this kind of post about any RB in the league), ESPECIALLY a 3rd-4th round RB.

As was well pointed out above all the guys around Bush have similar questions and half the talent. And heck, you could also say you'd rather have a guy who hasn't proven either way whether or not he can stay healthy over some of the guys being taken around Bush who have proven they can't. I'm not saying I would take Bush over those guys in a redraft, but you can certainly raise just as long a list of questions about everyone around him.

I will say though that your points about the schedule are right on. Man is that thing brutal.

 

[Hobbes]

I see New Orleans using a backfield of Bush and McAllister as long as Deuce is healthy enough to go. I think they will use Deuce to pound the ball up the middle and the extra attention that will be paid to Reggie will only help. I still think that Reggie gets his touches...I see 20 non-special teams touches per game for him this year...probably in a 15/5 split, although it is not unrealistic to see more than 5 catches a game. The result?

240 Rushes and 80 receptions (assuming he stays healthy)

Using the career averages of "similar" backs expect 4.5 yards per rush and 9 yards per reception...although I consider Reggie to be more talented than the guys I am using as a reference...gives 1080 rush yards and 720 receiving yards....or 1800 total yards.

The real question is what happens with the TDs...even if the majority of the goalline work goes to Deuce I still think Reggie scores from a distance enough to grab 8-10 TDs combined.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I see two glaring problems in your take on Bush.

1) Rookie RBs, more so than any other set of players, improve as the season goes on. So the argument about Bush wearing down and not being a factor in the fantasy playoffs is way off. You should expect Bush to score better in the second half of the season, and perhaps significantly more. (Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson and Fred Taylor didn't start the season as the number 1 RB like Bush, but finished extremely well.)

2) Your comments on the Saints offense seems off base too. Horn and Stallworth are good receivers. Brees is a good QB. They should definitely have a solid offense. I hardly think we'll see teams focusing everything on Bush, at least right away.

 

[MLBrandow]

I see New Orleans using a backfield of Bush and McAllister as long as Deuce is healthy enough to go. I think they will use Deuce to pound the ball up the middle and the extra attention that will be paid to Reggie will only help. I still think that Reggie gets his touches...I see 20 non-special teams touches per game for him this year...probably in a 15/5 split, although it is not unrealistic to see more than 5 catches a game. The result?

240 Rushes and 80 receptions (assuming he stays healthy)

Using the career averages of "similar" backs expect 4.5 yards per rush and 9 yards per reception...although I consider Reggie to be more talented than the guys I am using as a reference...gives 1080 rush yards and 720 receiving yards....or 1800 total yards.

The real question is what happens with the TDs...even if the majority of the goalline work goes to Deuce I still think Reggie scores from a distance enough to grab 8-10 TDs combined.

15 rushing attempts per game? That's a lot more than I expect from a 3rd down back.non-special teams touches indicates you think he'll be returning punts/kicks as well.

So let me understand this. You expect him to touch the ball nearly 30 times a game?

I expect him to have about 18-20 all-purpose touches, about a 5/5/8 split.

using your formula, I get:

80 rush - 360 yards - 80 rec - 720 - 8-10TD.

If you're expecting Bush to run 240 times with all the receiving and special teams work, I think you're insane.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

From my RB thread I just unleashed.

Reggie Bush: New Orleans

1.7 C-

ADP: 3.10

Opps: © 260 touches roughly…can’t imagine Deuce is ready to go.

OL: (D) Oh my goodness is this OL in heaps of trouble.

Schedule: (D) Brutal schedule. Lots of juggernauts on tap for NO…plays in the same division as TB and CAR so it just will not be a fun go of it.

Surround Talent: (B) Horn and Stallworth make for a nice 1-2 punch at WR…have to wait and see if Brees is 100% and ready to air it out.

Intangibles: © The Saints will be playing from behind this year…a lot! So maybe they will get a lot of opps on offense. The OL and schedule however do not make me highly optimistic for Reggie in season number 1. I don’t see how Deuce will be ready 100% to go for 2006.

 

[MLBrandow]

From my RB thread I just unleashed.

Reggie Bush: New Orleans

1.7 C-

ADP: 3.10

Opps: © 260 touches roughly…can’t imagine Deuce is ready to go.

OL: (D) Oh my goodness is this OL in heaps of trouble.

Schedule: (D) Brutal schedule. Lots of juggernauts on tap for NO…plays in the same division as TB and CAR so it just will not be a fun go of it.

Surround Talent: (B) Horn and Stallworth make for a nice 1-2 punch at WR…have to wait and see if Brees is 100% and ready to air it out.

Intangibles: © The Saints will be playing from behind this year…a lot! So maybe they will get a lot of opps on offense. The OL and schedule however do not make me highly optimistic for Reggie in season number 1. I don’t see how Deuce will be ready 100% to go for 2006.

I haven't heard any news on him in over a month.Jun. 3

Questionable McAllister (knee) split time with Reggie Bush during Friday's practice, the Times-Picayune reports.

"I know I'm not 100 percent," McAllister said, "but I have to go out there and work and get some work done on it. I'm going to continue to build it up for training camp. I want to be 100 percent for the start of the season." McAllister is still the team's featured back, but as long as he is rehabilitating his knee he will probably see limited action in practice.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I think your best point is about his value. There's not much room for upside to where he's being drafted.

That said, I think there is enough talent on that offense. Horn and Stallworth certainly merit attention from a defense. Brees has shown a propensity to throw to his RB and TE so he should get plenty of touches.

Schedule would be more of a concern if he were the every down back, but he will be getting the ball in different ways, not having to pound out yardage against tough defenses.

You say that rookies often wear down (which is true) but then you also say that his opportunities will be limited by Deuce. Wouldn't that keep him fresher for the end of the season?

I'd have a tough time passing on him any time after pick 3.6. He can score from anywhere on the field and will get plenty of touches. In PPR I think he could finish top 15.

How is there not much room for upside at the position he is being drafted at?? 50% of the first round RB's picked will bust. His ADP is around RB20, according to FBGs. If 50% of the first round picks bust and 50% of the second round RB's bust, that puts him around RB10 (if he does not bust). Not much room for improvement???? Most important, he is a RB that will recieve a lot of passing targets...probably TOP 5 for RB's at the end of the year when it comes to passing targets....thats value at pick 31 or RB20.

 

[LHUCKS]

I will not be drafting Bush until I see contract progress. Holdouts are just as bad as ACL tears in fantasy football.

 

[Big Score]

I will not be drafting Bush until I see contract progress. Holdouts are just as bad as ACL tears in fantasy football.

They are for WR's & QB's, but not as much for RB's.Quite a few instances of RB's in prolonged holdouts, still coming on strong right out of the gates.

LT2 & Emmitt immediately come to mind.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Didn't Edge and LT hold out for quite a while? I don't recall many guys going for 2000/17 a few weeks after tearing their ACL

 

[packersfan]

I think the RB situation is horrible this year so gambling on Bush early isn't such a bad idea. The main reasons I like his potential for this year are:

1. The Saints offense should have balance. A lot obviously is contingent on healthy -- namely Brees and McAllister and to a lesser extent Horn. But if Brees is healthy he will bring much more stability at QB than Brooks provided. Stallworth made some real strides last season and if Horn bounces back even slightly he can be a solid WR. I think Hilton's under-rated at TE so there are weapons in the passing game (and that's not counting Bush, who I think will be the unofficial No. 3 WR on the team, much like Chris Perry was last season for the Bengals).

2. McAllister is unlikely to be all the way back this season. That's been well-documented with RBs coming off major knee injuries. So that bodes well for Bush getting a solid number of carries from the get go. He'll likely lose the goal-line work, but if McAllister misses a game or two (which I think is very probable especially when you consider he's played just one full season since becoming the Saints' starting RB and that was before a major knee injury) Bush will get a big chance to shine and that could lead to him getting plenty of work even when McAllister is able to play.

3. This years RBs are the weakest I've seen in years. I don't like the depth at this position and there are major questions everywhere. Guys like McGahee, Kevin Jones (I'm coming around on him more and more, though), Jamal Lewis, DeShaun Foster and Chester Taylor have major questions surrounding them so a guy like Bush who you know will be involved (no way the Saints don't take full use of his talent; no way) isn't such a bad move in my opinion. I'd rather have Bush and his upside to be honest than Lewis, who could flame out or Foster, who could get hurt or Taylor, who apparently has serious motivational questions. And on and on and on. It's a very weak RB position this year in my opinion so if I'm going to gamble (and the vast majority of RBs this year are gambles in my opinion) gambling on Bush doesn't seem like a bad move to make.

Right now, the only thing that really concerns me about Bush is a potential holdout.

 

[MLBrandow]

How is there not much room for upside at the position he is being drafted at?? 50% of the first round RB's picked will bust. His ADP is around RB20, according to FBGs. If 50% of the first round picks bust and 50% of the second round RB's bust, that puts him around RB10 (if he does not bust). Not much room for improvement????

This is silly logic.Example of equally sound mathematical reasoning:

YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST

2003 90 521 5.8 58 3 15 314 20.9 60 4 0 0

2004 143 908 6.4 81 6 43 509 11.8 69 7 0 0

2005 200 1740 8.7 76 16 37 478 12.9 43 2 0 0

These are Reggie Bush's college numbers.

If you scale his 2005 numbers to a 16 game season, you get

267 / 2320 / 21TD rush, 49 / 637 / 3TD rec

Now, notice how Bush's rushing totals nearly doubled each year, (about 2N - 100).

Factoring in similar average increases across the board, you get:

2006 prediction: 347 / 4540 / 44TD rush, 47 / 691 / 5TD rec, 51.0 PPG in standard scoring

That looks like a pretty reasonable floor, presuming he doesn't bust.

 

[LHUCKS]

I will not be drafting Bush until I see contract progress.  Holdouts are just as bad as ACL tears in fantasy football.

They are for WR's & QB's, but not as much for RB's.Quite a few instances of RB's in prolonged holdouts, still coming on strong right out of the gates.

LT2 & Emmitt immediately come to mind.

quite a few more instances where it did make a difference...Benson etc.I'll play the odds and assume he's not going to be LT or Emmit after a holdout.

 

[Big Score]

I will not be drafting Bush until I see contract progress.  Holdouts are just as bad as ACL tears in fantasy football.

They are for WR's & QB's, but not as much for RB's.Quite a few instances of RB's in prolonged holdouts, still coming on strong right out of the gates.

LT2 & Emmitt immediately come to mind.

quite a few more instances where it did make a difference...Benson etc.I'll play the odds and assume he's not going to be LT or Emmit after a holdout.

I see Bush as being one of the preiminent RB talents to come out recently. I'd play the odds of a holdout not affecting Bush as much as it has lesser RB talents.

Also Bush only has McAllister in front of him coming back from an ACL in less than 12 months, not a healthy Thomas Jones as Benson had.

But to each their own.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

I'm glad I don't draft in my big money league until preseason is up and running. By then we'll find out whether Bush is in camp. How he looks. Is McCalister even playing etc. There is still alot of time to figure at least some of this out.

As for Bush, I agree with others that he is very difficult to gauge this year. I can't fault people for giving him low projections or high ones, problem is nobody can be very certain at this juncture. Bottom line however, is somebody in your league is going to value him high, so if you want him, you going to have to reach for him early, especially if he shows something exciting in the preseason.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I will not be drafting Bush until I see contract progress. Holdouts are just as bad as ACL tears in fantasy football.

They are for WR's & QB's, but not as much for RB's.Quite a few instances of RB's in prolonged holdouts, still coming on strong right out of the gates.

LT2 & Emmitt immediately come to mind.

Cedric Benson?

 

[Padraig]

I dont disagree with your points,but McGahee,Dom Davis, Kevin Jones and Droughns all have some of the same negatives and all have a higher ADP than Bush. Poor supporting cast,sharing carries,tough schedule,bad teams that will be playing from behind etc...And none of them have Bushs talent.

none of those guys have a RB half as good as Deuce McAllister competing with them for carries...and they should all be the primary GL back for their respective teams, unlike Reggie.

Last year noone knew if Ronnie Brown could carry the workload of being a featured back. He split carries with Ricky,who is at least comparable to Deuce.Ricky missed the prior year on suspension,Deuce w/injury.

Miamis QB and O-Line were nothing special.Pretty similar situations,IMO.

Ronnie finished last year at #25 RB in standard scoring.

Bush's ADP right now makes him the 20th back off the board.

I dont see why thats so wrong.

Im not pimping the guy,but I certainly wouldnt say hes someone to avoid.

 

[FFFIEND]

I think people are going to be way too excited about a back that will be splitting time with a very good NFL back.

 

[newbetterbucs05]

I would laugh so hard if he sat out the season.

 

[chris1969]

I think your right CHOF, if he plays, the only thing he is gonna do is hurt Deuce's numbers.

 

[renesauz]

Very hard to gauge. Considering his upside, AND his downside, RB 25-28 is about where I rank him right now. That may change after seeing some practices and a preseason game or two. His ADP is probably about right.

That said, I wouldn't want to draft him right now without at least one uber-stud in front of him, and another starting caliber (job-secure) back in the fold. That means third round at the earliest. Considering the other talent I expect to be available at that point, I really don't expect to ever seriously consider him in my more competitive redraft leagues.

I'm not sure there is too early a time to draft him in keeper leagues.

 

[Big Score]

I will not be drafting Bush until I see contract progress.  Holdouts are just as bad as ACL tears in fantasy football.

They are for WR's & QB's, but not as much for RB's.Quite a few instances of RB's in prolonged holdouts, still coming on strong right out of the gates.

LT2 & Emmitt immediately come to mind.

Cedric Benson?

Read responses a few posts above yours Jeff.LHUCKS already brought up Benson and I responded.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Reggie seems to be the hype of the pre season. I konw that FBGs is very high on him (They made him their magazine coverboy). I just don't buy into it.

Hi Chof,Just to be clear, he's on our cover but there's also a big ? on our cover after his name.

We rank him currently as the #24 RB on our board. He made our cover as we think he's a compelling story.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

I will not be drafting Bush until I see contract progress.  Holdouts are just as bad as ACL tears in fantasy football.

They are for WR's & QB's, but not as much for RB's.Quite a few instances of RB's in prolonged holdouts, still coming on strong right out of the gates.

LT2 & Emmitt immediately come to mind.

quite a few more instances where it did make a difference...Benson etc.I'll play the odds and assume he's not going to be LT or Emmit after a holdout.

I see Bush as being one of the preiminent RB talents to come out recently. I'd play the odds of a holdout not affecting Bush as much as it has lesser RB talents.

Also Bush only has McAllister in front of him coming back from an ACL in less than 12 months, not a healthy Thomas Jones as Benson had.

But to each their own.

I'd agree here. Holdouts are never good. But some are not nearly as bad as others. ACL tears are all bad...The one that always comes to my mind is Edgerrin James. He missed what, the first couple of pre season games?

I remember watching James' first preseason game and I'm thinking they won't let him loose in there too much as long as Manning's in as they want to protect Manning. First play James is in the game, the defense blitzes. James steps into the pocket and puts a text book block on the defender. Next play he rips off a 15 yard run. And he never looks back.

It's all about the player and the team situation for holdouts in my opinion.

J

 

[packersfan]

I think people are going to be way too excited about a back that will be splitting time with a very good NFL back.

The kicker, though, is McAllister may not be fully recovered from his injury until 2007. Remember how Edge looked in his first year back from his knee injury? I do because I had him and he was brutal much of the time. Also, I wasn't overly impressed with McAllister before his injury last season. He looked sluggish and slow to hit the hole. Also keep in mind that, as I posted earlier, he's only played a full season once since becoming the Saints' starter. So the chances of him missing time this season would be good even if he wasn't coming back from a major knee injury. McAllister is a good RB but quite honestly it's been a long time since I've seen him run like one. He looked very average much of the time last season before getting hurt.

 

[LHUCKS]

I can tell you right now Bush will never be the blocker that Edge is.

 

[rzrback77]

I hope that I am wrong, but I see not just a hold-out, but a long hold-out on the immediate horizon. The Bush negotiation team has been quoted repeatedly that the Saints, on draft day in teh giddy excitement as to what fell in their laps, told Reggie he would be treated as a Number One Pick.

Immediately after the draft, Reggie signed several non-football contracts and has a ton of $ to work with. His next move was to show up at New Orleans and all over the Coast donating time and money and volunteering to lead New Orleans back. One FBG email lauded Bush for his efforts at saying and doing all the right things.

Duece McAllister may not be ready to go, so the Saints may not have a bell-cow to use at RB. That situation would be even worse if Benneett were traded. The Saints are already in some hot water from Benson's not-veiled threat to move the team after Katrina last year. I think that Bush's negotiating team will use all of that in an effort to get Reggie a contract better than Williams at Houston this year and it will take a while.

The Saints open training camp on Friday at Jackson, MS and it will be interesting to say the least.

 

[CHOF]

Reggie seems to be the hype of the pre season. I konw that FBGs is very high on him (They made him their magazine coverboy). I just don't buy into it.

Hi Chof,Just to be clear, he's on our cover but there's also a big ? on our cover after his name.

We rank him currently as the #24 RB on our board. He made our cover as we think he's a compelling story.

J

Hi Joe,Thanks for replying. Your point about the magazine cover is well taken. I was thinking more about the "Value Plays Consolidated" section where he was selected by; Dodds, Hicks, Smith, and Tremblay. The fact that no one is mentioning his schedule, the hype he is getting etc... I would have had him in the "Overvalued Plays Consolidated" section.

To all the rest of you. First thanks for reading and replying. I do understand that his ADP is in the 3.10 range. That would put him in my starting lineup right away @ RB2. I just can't have an unprooven player facing those defenses in my starting lineup. He played against very soft defenses @ USC, but was held in check vs Texas. He won't be facing Texas in the NFL. It will be Pitt, Car, Was,Tam, etc... (The best the NFL has to offer). Also the off line he had @USC was awesome. His new OL is far from it.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

I think your best point is about his value.  There's not much room for upside to where he's being drafted.

That said, I think there is enough talent on that offense. Horn and Stallworth certainly merit attention from a defense.  Brees has shown a propensity to throw to his RB and TE so he should get plenty of touches. 

Schedule would be more of a concern if he were the every down back, but he will be getting the ball in different ways, not having to pound out yardage against tough defenses.

You say that rookies often wear down (which is true) but then you also say that his opportunities will be limited by Deuce.  Wouldn't that keep him fresher for the end of the season?

I'd have a tough time passing on him any time after pick 3.6.  He can score from anywhere on the field and will get plenty of touches.  In PPR I think he could finish top 15.

How is there not much room for upside at the position he is being drafted at?? 50% of the first round RB's picked will bust. His ADP is around RB20, according to FBGs. If 50% of the first round picks bust and 50% of the second round RB's bust, that puts him around RB10 (if he does not bust). Not much room for improvement???? Most important, he is a RB that will recieve a lot of passing targets...probably TOP 5 for RB's at the end of the year when it comes to passing targets....thats value at pick 31 or RB20.

1. That's a lot of "ifs"2. Did you even read my entire post?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

but was held in check vs Texas.

This is what makes Bush valuable. He was "held in check" at 180 total yards and a touchdown? That's 24 fantasy points guy, if that's "held in check" he can be "held in check" every week and still end up finishing top 3 in scoring. I'm not saying that's going to happen, more mentioning how him being "held in check" at 180 total yards and a touchdown is an odd statement even though it seems to be a fairly common viewpoint.

I do understand that his ADP is in the 3.10 range. That would put him in my starting lineup right away @ RB2. I just can't have an unprooven player facing those defenses in my starting lineup.

Well I hate to break it to you but if you're taking your RB2 at 3.10 that is what you're going to get regardless of who you draft. At that point any RB you're looking at is going to be a guy who didn't "prove" himself recently and has a laundry list of question marks, and RBs at that point are going to have an enormously high bust rate. That's just the way it is. I would say that Bush is actually a safer play than many of the guys available at that spot.You want a "proven" guy with an easy schedule you better be picking him in the top 5 overall, not with the 34th pick because no one that fits that description is going to be there.

 

[JimmyD]

With my redraft leagues being held at the end of August, I'll have the luxury of pulling the wait and see on Bush.

That being said, I'd rather be wrong with him on my team than watching him on anothers roster.

If New Orleans gets him the ball out in space like they say they are, then it won't take 20 touches a game to make him a good start in FF.

 

[LHUCKS]

Reggie seems to be the hype of the pre season. I konw that FBGs is very high on him (They made him their magazine coverboy). I just don't buy into it.

Hi Chof,Just to be clear, he's on our cover but there's also a big ? on our cover after his name.

We rank him currently as the #24 RB on our board. He made our cover as we think he's a compelling story.

J

Hi Joe,Thanks for replying. Your point about the magazine cover is well taken. I was thinking more about the "Value Plays Consolidated" section where he was selected by; Dodds, Hicks, Smith, and Tremblay. The fact that no one is mentioning his schedule, the hype he is getting etc... I would have had him in the "Overvalued Plays Consolidated" section.

To all the rest of you. First thanks for reading and replying. I do understand that his ADP is in the 3.10 range. That would put him in my starting lineup right away @ RB2. I just can't have an unprooven player facing those defenses in my starting lineup. He played against very soft defenses @ USC, but was held in check vs Texas. He won't be facing Texas in the NFL. It will be Pitt, Car, Was,Tam, etc... (The best the NFL has to offer). Also the off line he had @USC was awesome. His new OL is far from it.

FYI, CBS and ESPN have Bush ranked higher than FBG.