Podunker's early QB rankings, tiering, with draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[podunker]

Early rankings, tiering, and draft strategy comments. These are for 2009 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings based on 12 team leagues with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go down the list, and also give some opinions. I would love to hear others opinions and constructive criticism.

Tier 1

Brady

Brees

Peyton

These guys are studs, but your going to pay a premium price to get them. I have seen Peyton fall to the 4th a few times, the other two are late second and third round picks. The only way I would take Brady of Brees is if my top 12 RB’s and WR’s were already gone, which would put them into the third round. Even then, I would be very hesitant unless passing TD’s were 5 or more points. I have my eye some other guys that can be had a little cheaper and still be top 10. I think Brady jumps back to the top this year. Brees will still be tossing the ball over the field with that defense. Peyton is the guy that could get jumped over by someone else. The coaching changes may have a bigger effect than people think. I’m not paying a 4th round pick for him.

Tier 2

McNabb

Warner

Rodgers

Rodgers and Warner were both top five guys last year and could both do that again. Rodgers is going ahead of Peyton in some drafts and I really can’t argue with someone taking him over Peyton. Rodgers is going in the 3rd and Warner in the 4th for the most part. My first QB target is McNabb, who I will look to take in the 5th round or later. He has consistently put up top ten numbers over the years. That is what I like about him. It seems like I’m always drafting or looking to draft the guy. Guys like Rodgers, Rivers, and Cutler have proven to me they can do it year in and year out. Plus, McNabb has a couple new toys to throw the ball too this year. I’m seeing Romo and Rivers being taken ahead of McNabb in a few drafts, in the fourth round. I like McNabby better than both of them. Rodgers has too high a price tag on him for my taste also.

Tier 3

Romo

Palmer

Hasselbeck

Ben

Rivers

Garrard

If I don’t get McNabb, I will get one of these guys and maybe two. Romo and Rivers are out, going too early. If I get McNabb in the fifth or sixth, I won’t take another QB until round 10, but I hope it is Hass or Garrard. Palmer and Ben are going in the 7th, Hass and Garrard in 9 or 10. If I don’t get McNabb, my strategy is to get one of them in the 7th and one in the 9th. I really like the Ben/Hass combo. There are 3 or 4 QB’s being taken before Hass and Garrard that are in my next two tiers. I am looking for both Palmer and Hass to bounce back well from injuries. Hass has TJ coming to town to help out an injury plagued WR corp. Palmer brings in Coles to go with Ocho and Henry. I think Coles is going to surprise in TJ’s old role. He might even have a decent TE to throw to this year if Coffman can develop. Ben will have to throw the ball more this year as teams adjust to them and play them closer. They set on a lot of leads last year, hurting his passing numbers. Garrard finally gets a No. 1 WR to throw to in Holt. He is always underrated, just like McNabb. I would love a McNabb/Garrard combo also.

Tier 4

Cutler

Edwards

Schaub

Ryan

Cutler, Schaub, and Ryan are being taken in the 6th round on average. I would rather have Ben or Palmer in the 7th. Schaub has to show me more consistency before I take him that high. Cutler is going to a more conservative offensive team with worse WR’s to throw too. Edwards is interesting in that he is being taken in a good spot right now in the 9 or 10th round. He has some upside with TO coming in to join Evans. He is still a big question mark, but might be good for your second QB, if you ended up with Hass or Garrard as your first. I really like Ryan, but just not enough to take him in the sixth. I probably pass on all these guys.

Tier 5

Eli

Favre

Delhomme

Cassel

Cassel is being taken in the 8th round right now, way too high in my opinion. I’ve seen if too many times when someone leaves the Patriots and Coach Bill, they just don’t perform the same. I think it is very unrealistic to think he will be anywhere close to last year’s numbers. They don’t have near the talent in KC, and he lost Gonzo. If I don’t get Hass or Garrard in the 9th or 10th round, Eli will be my target. I think he is a little underrated this year. He will be a great No. 2 guy. I’m in the camp that Favre will be the starting QB in Minny the first regular season game and will be productive. As we get closer to camp his ADP is just going to go up, so take him now as late as you can hold out. My guess is the 12th round will be about right, but who really knows. I think he would be a good No. 2 guy. Delhomme is a close to being in the next tier, but I bumped him because of Steve Smith. If some teams adjust to them a little on defense they may have to throw the ball a tad more.

Tier 6

Flacco

Campbell

Pennington

Quinn

Really not much to say about any of them. Flacco and Quinn have the most upside and may crack the top 20 if things go right. I like Quinn as a late round flyer. Pennington will probably be on waiver wire for emergency pickups.

Tier 7

Bulger

Collins

Stafford

Orton

Sanchez

Orton is being taken in the 10th right now, and a lot of people are high on him. He does have some weapons on offense, especially if Marshall stays around. I just am not sold on him or the organization in general right now. Bowlen probably wishes he still had Shanny. Can Stafford or Sanchez poll a Ryan or Flacco this year? Sanchez has the better team, so he has the best chance.

 

[Blackjacks]

nicely done

I'm personally a big fan of your tier #4.

If I could wait until the 6th or 7th and get 1 of those guys I'd feel very fortunate

I'd personally see those 4 guys in this way

Schaub

Ryan

Cutler

Edwards

but I like all of them

 

[Birdie048]

Good discussion here.... the decline of Peyton has beed discussed in several threads already, but all still have him as a Top 5 QB

NOS Def will have Brees heavy throwing again, but in leagues where Int = -3, it could be costly. If the scoring is favorible for QB's, Brees will still be elite.

I am not sure about the Tier 3 group : Hass has too many issues (no running game, limited WR group and his back issues make me lower him to Tier 6 on Risk/Reward consideration - the cost would be too high to risk that value. Ryan might improve as Gonzo is his new best friend and Edwards has TO & Evans creating open space all over the field.

My "limited" view of the QB Tiers:

Tier 1

Brees

Peyton

Rogers

Tier 2

Brady

McNabb

Palmer

Warner

Rivers

Tier 3

Romo

Cassel

Eli

Delhomme

Big Ben

Tier 4

Ryan

Schaub

Edwards

Cutler

Orton

Collins

Bulger

Tier 5

Hass

Pennington

Flacco

Campbell

Quinn

Stafford

Sanchez

Just my quick listing and opinion....

 

[jonboltz]

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

 

[Birdie048]

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

S Hill has not won the starting role yet. Reports have Alex Smith doing well. Until I see more from them, I don't like to quantify either of them. I did not include Favre/T Jackson/Sage, Culpepper, J Russel, or the TB group of Simms/Griese/et al. My list was a quick & dirty look. I did not have time to comment on each QB, but some are simple thingsFor Example: Campbell is low since Wash tried to replace him and the OC/HC might be leaving soon creating more problems for the young QB (like learning 5 systems in 6 years).

 

[Manster]

i too will be targeting McNabb this yr, and possibly selling high if he starts off fast, and i get a capable QB to pair with him.

 

[Mr. Pink]

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

You beat me to it, but I was thinking the exact same thing.

 

[barista]

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

You beat me to it, but I was thinking the exact same thing.

I will be taking him towards the back half of all my drafts 11th/12th ideallyIf Bulger or Stafford/Sanchez goes that's my cue.

 

[Chase Stuart]

What's the reasoning for ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub? Schaub was one of the best fantasy QBs when healthy last year, while Hasselbeck was the worst. I know things change from year to year, but I can't fathom ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub.

 

[David Yudkin]

What's the reasoning for ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub? Schaub was one of the best fantasy QBs when healthy last year, while Hasselbeck was the worst. I know things change from year to year, but I can't fathom ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub.

Hass was hurt and his WR corps was decimated. The season before he ranked 6th. I realize two years is an eternity in football time, but if Housh, Branch, Burleson, and Hass himself are healthy then there's some decent scoring potential there.I wouldn't rank MH in front of Schaub, but I don't think that they end up light years apart.

 

[Chase Stuart]

What's the reasoning for ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub? Schaub was one of the best fantasy QBs when healthy last year, while Hasselbeck was the worst. I know things change from year to year, but I can't fathom ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub.

Hass was hurt and his WR corps was decimated. The season before he ranked 6th. I realize two years is an eternity in football time, but if Housh, Branch, Burleson, and Hass himself are healthy then there's some decent scoring potential there.I wouldn't rank MH in front of Schaub, but I don't think that they end up light years apart.

I think they're light years apart.Yes, Hasselbeck was 6th in '08, but only because he had an easy schedule and played 16 games. I don't feel comfortable predicting that for him in '09, and I don't have a lot of faith in really any of those guys. With Bobby Engram gone, and Burleson and Branch being big question marks, I just don't see the upside compared to the majority of starting QBs, much less Schaub.

 

[jonboltz]

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

S Hill has not won the starting role yet. Reports have Alex Smith doing well. Until I see more from them, I don't like to quantify either of them. I did not include Favre/T Jackson/Sage, Culpepper, J Russel, or the TB group of Simms/Griese/et al. My list was a quick & dirty look. I did not have time to comment on each QB, but some are simple thingsFor Example: Campbell is low since Wash tried to replace him and the OC/HC might be leaving soon creating more problems for the young QB (like learning 5 systems in 6 years).

Neither has Quinn, Sanchez, or Stafford.

 

[David Yudkin]

What's the reasoning for ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub? Schaub was one of the best fantasy QBs when healthy last year, while Hasselbeck was the worst. I know things change from year to year, but I can't fathom ranking Hasselbeck ahead of Schaub.

Hass was hurt and his WR corps was decimated. The season before he ranked 6th. I realize two years is an eternity in football time, but if Housh, Branch, Burleson, and Hass himself are healthy then there's some decent scoring potential there.I wouldn't rank MH in front of Schaub, but I don't think that they end up light years apart.

I think they're light years apart.Yes, Hasselbeck was 6th in '08, but only because he had an easy schedule and played 16 games. I don't feel comfortable predicting that for him in '09, and I don't have a lot of faith in really any of those guys. With Bobby Engram gone, and Burleson and Branch being big question marks, I just don't see the upside compared to the majority of starting QBs, much less Schaub.

Dodds has them projected only 6.8 points apart on the season. Just sayin' . . .

 

[Chase Stuart]

Dodds has them projected only 6.8 points apart on the season. Just sayin' . . .

Interesting, thanks.I really don't see it. Houston QBs scored 94 more FP last year than Seattle QBs, and that's with Wallace (who I like better than Hasselbeck as a fantasy QB) starting half of the games. I don't see a healthy Schaub ranked anywhere close to a healthy Hasselbeck, and I view the two QBs as pretty comparable injury risks.

 

[podunker]

It's just my opinion, but I think if everything is equal, Hass is a better QB than Schaub. TJ more than replaces Engram in my book. I can also see Burleson coming back along with Branch and being fine. Carlson will be a factor also. That west coast offense they run doesn't require a stud at WR like Schaub has in Johnson. If they lose Johnson things go south quick, not the case if Seattle loses TJ. Either way, if you switch them tiers, I would rather have Hass in the 9th or 10th than Schaub in the sixth. Not to mention Palmer or Ben in the seventh. Just my thoughts ................

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

I won't be taking Hill in any 12 team redraft leagues period. He will be on the waiver wire in most leagues with 20-25 roster spots. I would rather take a chance with one of the young guys like Sanchez.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's just my opinion, but I think if everything is equal, Hass is a better QB than Schaub. TJ more than replaces Engram in my book. I can also see Burleson coming back along with Branch and being fine. Carlson will be a factor also. That west coast offense they run doesn't require a stud at WR like Schaub has in Johnson. If they lose Johnson things go south quick, not the case if Seattle loses TJ. Either way, if you switch them tiers, I would rather have Hass in the 9th or 10th than Schaub in the sixth. Not to mention Palmer or Ben in the seventh. Just my thoughts ................

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

I won't be taking Hill in any 12 team redraft leagues period. He will be on the waiver wire in most leagues with 20-25 roster spots. I would rather take a chance with one of the young guys like Sanchez.

I'm leary of Hill because who really knows if he'll be the starter and for how long, but in 13 games the past two seasons he's averaged 17.7 FP/G. That projects to 283 points over a full season, which last year would have ranked 9th.I'll probably consider taking him very late and seeing how he does, and if he doesn't pan out at least I have someone to drop to pick up someone else. Most years I end up with too many guys that become undroppable, making bye week fill-ins a lot harder by having to drop someone of value.

 

[gonzobill5]

It's just my opinion, but I think if everything is equal, Hass is a better QB than Schaub. TJ more than replaces Engram in my book. I can also see Burleson coming back along with Branch and being fine. Carlson will be a factor also. That west coast offense they run doesn't require a stud at WR like Schaub has in Johnson. If they lose Johnson things go south quick, not the case if Seattle loses TJ. Either way, if you switch them tiers, I would rather have Hass in the 9th or 10th than Schaub in the sixth. Not to mention Palmer or Ben in the seventh. Just my thoughts ................

That's an awful lot of QBs to list w/o listing Shaun Hill.

I won't be taking Hill in any 12 team redraft leagues period. He will be on the waiver wire in most leagues with 20-25 roster spots. I would rather take a chance with one of the young guys like Sanchez.

I'm leary of Hill because who really knows if he'll be the sarter and for how long, but in 13 games the past two seasons he's averaged 17.7 FP/G. That projects to 283 points over a full season, which last year would have ranked 9th.I'll probably consider taking him very late and seeing how he does, and if he doesn't pan out at least I have someone to drop to pick up someone else. Most years I end up with too many guys that become undroppable, making bye week fill-ins a lot harder by having to drop someone of value.

I was VERY down on him earlier based on what I saw from him in the Arizona game. He just repeatedly turned the ball over in a very close game (IIRC, a few of these turnovers were nullified due to penalty including a pick six). However, I must admit that after looking at a larger sample of his games, I'm pretty impressed with this guy. I'd definitely prefer him over any rookie QB, and most of the guys you have tier 6 and below. He takes chances with the ball, and in most league set ups, that bodes well for FFball.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Wow, Ryan is way down there.

The addition of Tony Gonzalez should be huge for him, imo.

 

[podunker]

Wow, Ryan is way down there.The addition of Tony Gonzalez should be huge for him, imo.

I like Ryan a lot, but they are still a run oriented team first. Plus, I think the addition of Gonzo will help the offense but hurt R. White as far as competition for targets.

 

[Black]

Interesting discussion here, although I have a few different thoughts:

1. I see Ben as a 'safe' 20-TD QB at best. When PIT is working well, they are running the ball. He won't throw for 200 yards regularly either. Eli Manning is similar, only with more INTs.

2. Hasselback...I just don't think he'll heal like he used to. A back injury doesn't seem like something to just get 'fixed' and return from. He's high risk to me. Branch and Burleson have not stayed healthy in two years either. There's no running game to speak of. I don't know what they've done to improve the O-line. I think Housh is the only upside there. (Bumped down a couple of Tiers.)

3. Why so low on Orton? Orton was a good Fantasy QB before the ankle injury, and now has an O-line that allowed like 12 sacks all last year? (Bumped UP a couple of Tiers.)

4. I think Gerrard has alot of room for improvement with a much better O-line and some new, young WRs. (Bumped down a Tier.)

5. I think Matt Ryan is overpriced, unless you are in a dynasty league. He had a 'good' year with an easy schedule, but only had 16 TDs vs. 11 INT. Those are not great numbers (good for a rookie, tho). Adding Gonzalez maybe gives him a 20 TD upside? (Bumped down a Tier.)

6. I am wary of Cassell, who threw 21 TDs in a pass-happy NE offense last year with great receivers. What happens when all he gets is Bowe and Bradley (for a couple of games)?

7. Rivers ...he finished 5th overall last year with 34 TDs to only 11 INT, although I think that to be a function of having to throw with LT hobbled. If LT returns to form, Rivers is in 24 TD territory, but I bump him up because I think that's his floor. (Bumped UP a Tiers)

8. Where do you put Sage on this list, assuming he wins the starting job? I think Sage and Shaun Hill could win those jobs and could be good QB2.

I added below where some of these guys are going in 10-Team drafts, based on a number of Mocks I've done at FantasyFootballCalculator. If there is no round after the name, they are going after the 10th Round usually.

Tier 1

Brady [i}2nd

Brees 1st-2nd

Peyton 2nd-4th

Tier 2

McNabb 5th

Warner 5th

Rodgers 4th

Rivers 4th

Tier 3

Romo 6th-7th

Tier 4

Garrard 10th

Cutler 8th

Edwards 9th

Schaub 7th

Ryan 8th

Tier 5

Palmer 8th

Hasselbeck

Ben 9th

Eli

Favre

Delhomme

Cassel 9th

Orton 9th

Tier 6

Flacco

Campbell

Pennington

Quinn

Tier 7

Bulger

Collins

Stafford

Sanchez

 

[podunker]

3. Why so low on Orton? Orton was a good Fantasy QB before the ankle injury, and now has an O-line that allowed like 12 sacks all last year? (Bumped UP a couple of Tiers.)

I guess "good fantasy QB" is in the eye of the beholder. He was around 20th in most my leagues. I just think Denver is in shambles right now. McDaniels has not handled things the right way from the beginning. Orton is also going to have to learn a whole new offense, and that could cause him to get off to a slow start. Plus, he will have pressure to perform well, because they will be calling for a change fast if he doesn't. Add to the fact that Marshall wants out, that can't be a confidence booster for Orton. Marshall was all for Orton before practicing with him. After 5 interceptions the first practice he wants out. That's a sign in my book.

8. Where do you put Sage on this list, assuming he wins the starting job? I think Sage and Shaun Hill could win those jobs and could be good QB2.

Both of those guys will be waiver wire players in most my leagues. If Hill wins the job, and that is a big if, he might have some value as a QB2. He did decent a few games. My bottom line is I want two guys out of the top 5 tiers, QB1 in the top 3 tiers, QB2 from 3-5 tier.

 

[thehornet]

We all know what Peyton can do and has done, but I was just looking at his career NFL numbers when looking at something about another QB.

His numbers are silly. 333 TD's!! He has started and played in every single game since he was a rookie. Am I seeing this correctly? Just wow.

I am putting him back at number 1 for this year. I need to see what Tom B can do with his knee before I would even consider him ahead of Peyton. Brees is the only other QB close, imo.

 

[podunker]

We all know what Peyton can do and has done, but I was just looking at his career NFL numbers when looking at something about another QB.His numbers are silly. 333 TD's!! He has started and played in every single game since he was a rookie. Am I seeing this correctly? Just wow. I am putting him back at number 1 for this year. I need to see what Tom B can do with his knee before I would even consider him ahead of Peyton. Brees is the only other QB close, imo.

Peyton is a stud, and I wouldn't fault anyone who took him first. I am a little curious to see how the loss of Dungy will effect the team. I'm starting to see signs I don't like. First the OC Tom Moore and Line Coach Mudd retire, then Manning starts making noise about not liking the fact that they left, and all of a sudden they come back as consultants. What does that say about the head coach. It tells me that Peyton does not have confidence in him. Anyway, just me seeing things through my strange eyes................Peyton is an all time stud!I think Brady is going to be fine. It's not like he is a runner. He does have a good pocket presence in the way the moves around, and the injury could have an effect on that I guess. Regardless of how you rank them, most agree they are the top 3. I just doubt I spend the pick on one of them unless I'm getting 6 pts for a passing TD!

 

[podunker]

A little bump for the guys getting ready for early drafts this weekend, lots of good discussion here.

 

[PahtyTom]

Rivers continues to be undervalued. He's a tier 1 guy imo

 

[Tau837]

Rivers continues to be undervalued. He's a tier 1 guy imo

 

[luckydawg]

I think Rivers could throw for 40 TDs this year. He had a great December, Jackson is more consistent and Chambers seems to be healthy. That said Brees is still the safer pick but Rivers is a strong second.

 

[podunker]

Rivers continues to be undervalued. He's a tier 1 guy imo

I can definitely see him in tier 2, and being a little undervalued to some people. It comes down to two things with him for me. He threw the ball a lot last year because their running game and defense were not that good. I think LT improves the running game and the defense gets better. Both equate to him not throwing the ball as much. If your in the camp that LT is old and finished, than I could see were you would like Rivers.

 

[Tau837]

Rivers continues to be undervalued. He's a tier 1 guy imo

I can definitely see him in tier 2, and being a little undervalued to some people. It comes down to two things with him for me. He threw the ball a lot last year because their running game and defense were not that good. I think LT improves the running game and the defense gets better. Both equate to him not throwing the ball as much. If your in the camp that LT is old and finished, than I could see were you would like Rivers.

2006 - Rivers 460 passing attempts - first year starter in Marty's conservative offense2007 - Rivers 460 passing attempts - first year in Norv's offense

2008 - Rivers 478 passing attempts

First off, what is your definition of throwing the ball "a lot"? San Diego was #25 in passing attempts last season.

Secondly, he is a 4th year starter, in his 3rd year in the offense, hopefully with better health from his receivers than last year (Tomlinson, Gates, Chambers, Floyd, and Davis all missed time due to injury and/or played through injuries last year), and Tomlinson is in decline. And better health from Tomlinson and the OL (2 Pro Bowl OL missed time and/or played hurt last season) should also help - better protection, more first downs, etc.

Exactly how many fewer attempts do you think Rivers is going to get compared to last year?

 

[Kiddnets]

I was able to trade for Hass as a backup - owners were laughing at me - after looking at that schedule he plays he may be my #1 as long as he can stay onthe field. huge upside for him - has the weapons to be top 10...again if he stays healthy. High reward but since you can essentially draft him as a backup -low risk!

 

[Black]

2006 - Rivers 460 passing attempts - first year starter in Marty's conservative offense2007 - Rivers 460 passing attempts - first year in Norv's offense2008 - Rivers 478 passing attemptsFirst off, what is your definition of throwing the ball "a lot"? San Diego was #25 in passing attempts last season.Secondly, he is a 4th year starter, in his 3rd year in the offense, hopefully with better health from his receivers than last year (Tomlinson, Gates, Chambers, Floyd, and Davis all missed time due to injury and/or played through injuries last year), and Tomlinson is in decline. And better health from Tomlinson and the OL (2 Pro Bowl OL missed time and/or played hurt last season) should also help - better protection, more first downs, etc.Exactly how many fewer attempts do you think Rivers is going to get compared to last year?

I like Rivers from the standpoint that he seems very durable and has a good, young WR corps (+Gates, LT, Sproles). I'd hope to target him in dynasty leagues.I do think that 34 TDs is his ceiling. Unless we are seeing the decline of LT, in which case, he may be continuing to throw alot more until they get replacements in the backfield.