Podunker's early TE rankings, tiering, with draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[podunker]

Early rankings, tiering, and draft strategy comments. These are for 2009 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings based on 12 team leagues with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go down the list, and also give some opinions. I would love to hear others opinions and constructive criticism.

Tier 1

Witten

Gates

I think these two are in a group by themselves. I look for Witten to return to his numbers BTO (Before T. Owen arrived). Gates should be fully healthy and ready to go. I think both of these guys can get over 300 pts for the year in PPR leagues.

Tier 2

Dallas Clark

Gonzo

Can you name the starting TE for the Atlanta Falcons last year? I couldn’t either. Justin Peelle. He got 15 passes total last year. My question is how much on that was the offensive strategy and how much of that was the player. I know Gonzo will have more catches than that, but I think it is unrealistic to think he is going to be as productive as his years in KC. He is new to the whole team, plus the teams m.o. is to run the ball. Clark should have another good year as Peyton’s man. These top four guys are going in the top 4 rounds, so you better grab one early if that’s your strategy. I could see taking Witten in the fourth if the top 12 WR’s are gone, otherwise I ‘ll wait.

Tier 3

O. Daniels

Olsen

Cooley

Z. Miller

Carlson

Winslow

Keller

Shockey

H. Miller

Boss

This is the value group at TE this year and a deep group it is. I am going to get two guys out of this tier and be very happy. I think all the guys in this group have the potential to be 175-225 pt. Scorers for the year. Who know, one could really bust out. I think they are all within 50 pts or so of each other, so the guys being taken later are good picks. Cooley, Winslow, Daniels, Olsen are being taken a little high for my taste, all before the ninth round. I will start looking in the tenth and hope to nab two of Carlson, the Miller boys, Shockey, or even Boss. I think Eli will look his way a lot with the young group of WR’s he has.

Tier 4

McMichael

Davis

Fasano

Scheffler

Celek

I wouldn’t want any of these guys as my starter, but they might do in a pinch as a No.2 guy. The guy that interest me the most is Celek, because I know Philly likes to use the TE a lot.

Coffman

M. Bennett

M. Lewis

Shiancoe

Scaife

Lee

Heap

B. Miller

Watch the first two guys in this tier closely the first few games. They both are special talents and could surprise a lot of people this year. Mart. Bennett in Dallas is a stud, and might be the second best receiver on the team behind Witten. Coffman is a true pass catching TE, unlike Palmer has ever had before. I threw Heap in here because he can be had cheap and may return to form. Miller should produce in Shockey goes down. I know Shiancoe was top 10 last year, but take away one big week and he is mediocre in my book. None of these guys will be drafted by me unless it’s a deep league, then I will take a chance with the top two.

 

[iSnitch]

I don't see how Boss belongs in tier 3.

 

[podunker]

I don't see how Boss belongs in tier 3.

I understand what your saying, but he really came on the second half of he season. From week 8 on he was very close to top 10. It was just his first full year as starter and I think he can improve slightly. Now he is the most experienced receiver on the team as far as games started. I just have a hunch with all the young WR's on the team, that Eli will look his way a lot.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I don't see how Boss belongs in tier 3.

I understand what your saying, but he really came on the second half of he season. From week 8 on he was very close to top 10. It was just his first full year as starter and I think he can improve slightly. Now he is the most experienced receiver on the team as far as games started. I just have a hunch with all the young WR's on the team, that Eli will look his way a lot.

You say Boss "really came on", but you still have Celek low. Check out Celek's run during the playoffs.

 

[FUBAR]

Tier 3O. DanielsOlsenCooleyZ. MillerCarlsonWinslowKellerShockeyH. MillerBossThis is the value group at TE this year and a deep group it is. I am going to get two guys out of this tier and be very happy. I think all the guys in this group have the potential to be 175-225 pt. Scorers for the year. Who know, one could really bust out. I think they are all within 50 pts or so of each other, so the guys being taken later are good picks. Cooley, Winslow, Daniels, Olsen are being taken a little high for my taste, all before the ninth round. I will start looking in the tenth and hope to nab two of Carlson, the Miller boys, Shockey, or even Boss. I think Eli will look his way a lot with the young group of WR’s he has.

Anything is possible, but IMO you can't have a 10 player tier this high, it's practically meaningless. Would you really consider Boss or Miller on the same level as Daniels or Cooley? I'd also separate the safer bets from the players with mere potential to perform equally. Tier 3CooleyO. DanielsOlsenWinslowTier 3.5CarlsonKellerZ. MillerShockeyTier 4H. MillerBossMiller and Boss should be with Scheffler, Fasano, etc.

 

[podunker]

You say Boss "really came on", but you still have Celek low. Check out Celek's run during the playoffs

Good point, however I can see Maclin and the rookie TE Ingram eating into some the targets Celek was getting. I still like him, but Ingram is a much better athlete in my opinion. They may do more three wide sets with Maclin in the slot also, they will want to get him on the field somewhere. Curtis and Jackson outside and Macling in the slot sounds sweet.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

You say Boss "really came on", but you still have Celek low. Check out Celek's run during the playoffs

Good point, however I can see Maclin and the rookie TE Ingram eating into some the targets Celek was getting. I still like him, but Ingram is a much better athlete in my opinion. They may do more three wide sets with Maclin in the slot also, they will want to get him on the field somewhere. Curtis and Jackson outside and Macling in the slot sounds sweet.

OK, I see your points. But, did the Giants not draft a better TE in Beckum and a rookie WR(one that I think is better than Maclin)? My point is that Celek had a MONSTER game in NFCC game that was a perfect culmination of the playoff run.

 

[podunker]

Anything is possible, but IMO you can't have a 10 player tier this high, it's practically meaningless. Would you really consider Boss or Miller on the same level as Daniels or Cooley? I'd also separate the safer bets from the players with mere potential to perform equally. Tier 3CooleyO. DanielsOlsenWinslowTier 3.5CarlsonKellerZ. MillerShockeyTier 4H. MillerBossMiller and Boss should be with Scheffler, Fasano, etc.

Nice point, and I think I agee with you for the most part. I just kind of lumped them together thinking I wanted to get two of them. Thanks

 

[gonzobill5]

Nice work, as always. A couple thoughts:

Dallas Clark REALLY belongs in Tier 1. He's been top 5 for the past two years, his receptions are on a major upward swing, and while I haven't done the legwork, I'd imagine his ppg without Marvin really stand out. He's also the rare TE that can help win a week for you (see week 15 against DET)

What do you mean when you say Witten will return to pre-TO form? His best year was in 2007 with TO. His targets and receptions have been among the best among TEs the last two years so it's hard to predict a huge increase there. I could see him hauling in a few more TDs.

I think you are on point with your projection of Gonzo, I'll be avoiding him at his ADP for sure. I can't believe that he and Winslow are going TE4&5 with the team changes and age/injury history. Winslow really boggles my mind and TE5.

Chris Cooley belongs in that second tier. 83 catches is pretty significant for TE. The low TD number is reminiscent of Witten's 2006 campaign. Funny, in my 2007 draft I remember reaching for Cooley too early, then landing Witten ridiculously late even though I didn't want another TE.

Overall tier 3 is a little large, but I see your point, lots of these guys will be starter quality and lots will disappoint. Good strategy is to grab two of them and cross your fingers.

 

[iSnitch]

Tier 3O. DanielsOlsenCooleyZ. MillerCarlsonWinslowKellerShockeyH. MillerBossThis is the value group at TE this year and a deep group it is. I am going to get two guys out of this tier and be very happy. I think all the guys in this group have the potential to be 175-225 pt. Scorers for the year. Who know, one could really bust out. I think they are all within 50 pts or so of each other, so the guys being taken later are good picks. Cooley, Winslow, Daniels, Olsen are being taken a little high for my taste, all before the ninth round. I will start looking in the tenth and hope to nab two of Carlson, the Miller boys, Shockey, or even Boss. I think Eli will look his way a lot with the young group of WR’s he has.

Anything is possible, but IMO you can't have a 10 player tier this high, it's practically meaningless. Would you really consider Boss or Miller on the same level as Daniels or Cooley? I'd also separate the safer bets from the players with mere potential to perform equally. Tier 3CooleyO. DanielsOlsenWinslowTier 3.5CarlsonKellerZ. MillerShockeyTier 4H. MillerBossMiller and Boss should be with Scheffler, Fasano, etc.

That tier is way too big. Winslow, Cooley, and Daniels in the same tier as those other guys?

 

[JamesTheScot]

Tier 3O. DanielsOlsenCooleyZ. MillerCarlsonWinslowKellerShockeyH. MillerBossThis is the value group at TE this year and a deep group it is. I am going to get two guys out of this tier and be very happy. I think all the guys in this group have the potential to be 175-225 pt. Scorers for the year. Who know, one could really bust out. I think they are all within 50 pts or so of each other, so the guys being taken later are good picks. Cooley, Winslow, Daniels, Olsen are being taken a little high for my taste, all before the ninth round. I will start looking in the tenth and hope to nab two of Carlson, the Miller boys, Shockey, or even Boss. I think Eli will look his way a lot with the young group of WR’s he has.

Anything is possible, but IMO you can't have a 10 player tier this high, it's practically meaningless. Would you really consider Boss or Miller on the same level as Daniels or Cooley? I'd also separate the safer bets from the players with mere potential to perform equally. Tier 3CooleyO. DanielsOlsenWinslowTier 3.5CarlsonKellerZ. MillerShockeyTier 4H. MillerBossMiller and Boss should be with Scheffler, Fasano, etc.

That was my first reaction as well, FUBAR.I understand that once the top 4 TE's are off the board, some owners might panic and overpay for Cooley, Daniels and Winslow. But that doesn't change my anlysis that they present a safer bet to finish in the top 7 than any of the rest do, and they each could end up in the top 5 without anything crazy going on to get them there.To me, that's a seperate tier than Z.Miller, Carlson, et. al.Olsen is a bit of a tweener to me. I could put him up there with Daniels or down there with Carlson. That might mean he gets his own tier!

 

[smackdaddies]

Jermichael Finley

 

[Slam]

I agree that Tier 3 is too heavy.

I suggest take the top 3 from Tier 3

O Daniels

Olsen

Cooley

and add Carlson and form the new Tier 3