POLL CLOSED Player #44 Community Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Brisco54]

We have another tie with Doug Baldwin & Rookie Pick 1.6 both getting 11 of 56 votes (Benjamin was one behind and McCoy 2).  They tie for the sixth pick for the 4th round and 42d overall. Every other option received at least one vote except Ingram.    That poll/thread can be viewed here: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754832-player-42-community-dynasty-rankings/

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

I have the following outstanding nominations:

Michael Crabtree - 1.5 (Biabreakable nominated 2 so I split his vote in half)

Hunter Henry - 1

Tyler Eifert - 1

Golden Tate - .5

As a result I am adding both Michael Crabtree & Rookie pick 1.7.    Don't forget that you can always force me to add a player by clicking "other."

Time to pick #44

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5

4.3 Stefon Diggs

4.4 Lamar Miller

4.5 Corey Coleman

4.6 (Tie) Doug Baldwin

              Rookie Pick 1.6

 

[-OZ-]

A pretty good argument can be made for everyone here, and I could justify any of them.  I know I wouldn't tale Ingram but really could see going with any other, including the pick if I knew my projected choice would be left (Howard). Ended up with a coun flip between McCoy and Hill.

 

[Brisco54]

A pretty good argument can be made for everyone here, and I could justify any of them.  I know I wouldn't tale Ingram but really could see going with any other, including the pick if I knew my projected choice would be left (Howard). Ended up with a coun flip between McCoy and Hill.

I went with McCoy but I can be talked into most of the others.  

For RB, I never plan for more than three years of production for even the youngest of backs... at this point in his career, I think it safe to say that Shady has two years of startable production left with the possibility of a third.  Further, I think he has proven that he is coach and system proof so the switch from Ryan should not hurt him.

On Ingram, if the Saints do not add an RB in the draft, I think his redraft stock should rise in PPR.  I think that Ingram will be helped the most by Cook's departure.  I do not think it a coincidence that Ingram's best week in 2016 (week 12) was a game Cooks had zero stats) and vice versa (Cooks best stretch are arguable the end of 2015 when Ingram was not on the field.)

Payton seems committed to converting to a more Defensive focused team and a ball control offense through runs and a short passing game.  The loss of Hightower also helps Ingram if he is not replaced with another tween the tackles runner.  Finally, In PPR, I think Ingram has had only eight games in the last three years that he did not achieve 10 points.  That is very consistent performance for an RB2 (and assuming McCoy and Tevin Coleman go before Ingram and at half of the rookie picks are RBs, we are on RB 17.

Again, however, this all depends on the Saints not drafting an RB early.  I am not saying Ingram is a viable pick in this poll, but he belongs in the conversation.  With the possible exception of Demarco Murray, after Ingram there appears to be a significant tier break at the RB position.  The next five RBs on the FBG combined dynasty ranking of RBs are Ware, Crowell, Dixon, Lacy & Bernard.  Every one of them appears to have significantly greater risk than Ingram.  

 

[Brisco54]

A pretty good argument can be made for everyone here, and I could justify any of them.  I know I wouldn't tale Ingram but really could see going with any other, including the pick if I knew my projected choice would be left (Howard). Ended up with a coun flip between McCoy and Hill.

One more thing... i love Hill, I really do.  What i love most about him is that by week six of next season, i should know whether he is gold or fool's gold.  I love that factor about a player because nothings sucks more than a dead roster spot for a year or two because you still don't know the player's true potential (e.g. White & Perriman).

However, if this was a real startup draft, I think I would force myself to wait until next round and hope he is still there when I pick again.  I stay conservative in the first 4 rounds and in the middle rounds (5-9) is where i focus entirely on ceiling before returning to conservatism around round ten.  

 

[Brisco54]

Bumping for more votes.

 

[Interseptopus]

Kind of crazy only 2 QBs so far

 

[Brisco54]

These polls are definitely slowing down.  This one has been up since Saturday and still only has 35 votes.

Without 50 votes, we really don't have much of a community, so we may have hit our limit for these.

 

[Interseptopus]

These polls are definitely slowing down.  This one has been up since Saturday and still only has 35 votes.

Without 50 votes, we really don't have much of a community, so we may have hit our limit for these.

It was bound to happen

1. you have people less on the forum, maybe until after the draft. This is the longest I've cared to post on here. I usually walk away after regular season and come back in preseason

2. getting this far down it's less consensus of who you'd pick. The last few picks have been so close because people could make a strong case for any

At this point might be good to call it and start a new one once the draft is over. That may change a LOT of perspective on this board. Will give rookies names instead of pick numbers and where those rookies land will drastically affect their value. Could be fun to see as we have this thread for predraft comparison

 

[thatguy]

Still voting McCoy. 

 

[Brisco54]

Still only 43 votes.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Other: Eifert

 

[Biabreakable]

These polls are definitely slowing down.  This one has been up since Saturday and still only has 35 votes.

Without 50 votes, we really don't have much of a community, so we may have hit our limit for these.

I have noticed a similar pattern in polls before. Once the choices start getting difficult, fewer people have confidence in one particular choice, and perhaps decide not to vote.

I hope you can keep these going as I think these choices, 40-100 are more critical decisions than the choices have been thus far. There is a lot of disagreement and divergence of this group. I think the poll can do a good job of shedding some light on that.

I like your philosophy of focusing more on upside than safety for picks in this range. I think that makes a lot of sense to swing for the fences and try to get another top 50 player after 50 players have been drafted.

Where the top tier players cut off from this second tier of players is likely different for each fantasy owner as well.

I know in one of the early mocks I participated in last year I selected Jay Ajayi at least 20 or 30 picks higher than I had to based on ADP. I just did it because I thought he was worth a pick there because of the upside. I ended up drafting him like 40 picks later in real drafts, because of ADP, but if you really like the player, shouldn't be afraid to reach for them.

I held my nose and voted for Jordy Nelson here. I do not like the Packers or their players, but I just can't pass on him anymore. He is older than Crabtree is so I do think they are close. This is a risk of losing long term value in exchange for high upside right now, instead of upside from potential of a younger player, such as Tyreek Hill. Both are risks. I think Nelson is better than any of the other Packers WR who are younger and will continue to be for this season, maybe 2018 as well. Similar outlook if the choice were Murray or McCoy because of Nelsons age.

I would like to recommend Jamison Crowder, Tyler Lockett and WIllie Snead as if I were to go with a younger player, these are some of the ones I would consider soon.

 

[Biabreakable]

At 56 votes Jordy Nelson has a bit of a lead. Still a close race though as McCoy has one less vote than Nelson at this point.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

Question for the group:  

Would we be able to add a 2018 first to the list at some point?  As a dynasty noob I have some trouble deciding the value of a future first compared to current firsts and/or players.  When the time is right, we could nominate a 2018 pick (projected 1-6) and then, if we got to it, a 2018 pick (projected 7-12). Or does that mess everything up for people that want to use this for ADP purposes?  Is there a simple rule of thumb that anyone uses to or do you just try to acquire first rounders and hope?   

 

[Biabreakable]

Question for the group:  

Would we be able to add a 2018 first to the list at some point?  As a dynasty noob I have some trouble deciding the value of a future first compared to current firsts and/or players.  When the time is right, we could nominate a 2018 pick (projected 1-6) and then, if we got to it, a 2018 pick (projected 7-12). Or does that mess everything up for people that want to use this for ADP purposes?  Is there a simple rule of thumb that anyone uses to or do you just try to acquire first rounders and hope?   

This is a good question.

Because of the principles of the time value of money (or in this case draft capital) there is a discount for on the value of a future pick, which cannot have any value for the 2017 season, compared to a 2017 draft pick, that in theory could contribute to your starting line up this season.

In the NFL with 32 teams the discount for a future pick is usually one round difference. So if a NFL team is trading for a 3rd round pick in 2018 the price may only be a 2017 4th round pick. It doesn't track this way exactly, but that is fairly close I think. 

In a dynasty league, usually only 12 teams so it isn't the same as how the NFL treats picks.

I believe FBGs has a trade calculator tool as do other sites such as DLF rotoviz ect.

workdog did some interesting stuff quantifying the value of the draft picks based on future VBD

Generally I try to trade for future picks as often as I can. They usually can be had for some sort of discount, I view those picks as buying a bond which will accrue value as it matures. It also does not require a roster spot, which a 2017 draft pick will once it is used. So a good way to park future value for your team while also free up space to take flyers on free agents.

It is up to Brisco if he wants to add that option or not. The trouble with valuing a 2018 draft pick, is there is no way of knowing what order such a pick will fall in. If you knew you were trading for the 1st overall pick in 2018 that would be one thing, but you really don't know where that future pick will land until after the 2017 season. So to get around this, you basically have to consider a future draft pick to be 1.07 or the average of however many teams there are in your league. Some times you can guess that a team will be very bad or very good based on their roster. A lot of times things do not play out how you would expect them to though.

 

[Brisco54]

Question for the group:  

Would we be able to add a 2018 first to the list at some point?  As a dynasty noob I have some trouble deciding the value of a future first compared to current firsts and/or players.  When the time is right, we could nominate a 2018 pick (projected 1-6) and then, if we got to it, a 2018 pick (projected 7-12). Or does that mess everything up for people that want to use this for ADP purposes?  Is there a simple rule of thumb that anyone uses to or do you just try to acquire first rounders and hope?   

This is a good question.

Because of the principles of the time value of money (or in this case draft capital) there is a discount for on the value of a future pick, which cannot have any value for the 2017 season, compared to a 2017 draft pick, that in theory could contribute to your starting line up this season.

In the NFL with 32 teams the discount for a future pick is usually one round difference. So if a NFL team is trading for a 3rd round pick in 2018 the price may only be a 2017 4th round pick. It doesn't track this way exactly, but that is fairly close I think. 

In a dynasty league, usually only 12 teams so it isn't the same as how the NFL treats picks.

I believe FBGs has a trade calculator tool as do other sites such as DLF rotoviz ect.

workdog did some interesting stuff quantifying the value of the draft picks based on future VBD

Generally I try to trade for future picks as often as I can. They usually can be had for some sort of discount, I view those picks as buying a bond which will accrue value as it matures. It also does not require a roster spot, which a 2017 draft pick will once it is used. So a good way to park future value for your team while also free up space to take flyers on free agents.

It is up to Brisco if he wants to add that option or not. The trouble with valuing a 2018 draft pick, is there is no way of knowing what order such a pick will fall in. If you knew you were trading for the 1st overall pick in 2018 that would be one thing, but you really don't know where that future pick will land until after the 2017 season. So to get around this, you basically have to consider a future draft pick to be 1.07 or the average of however many teams there are in your league. Some times you can guess that a team will be very bad or very good based on their roster. A lot of times things do not play out how you would expect them to though.

I think this is a great suggestion and analysis.  I propose that we classify 2018 1sts into three categories:

1.  Probable Early (picks 1-4... but still a risk that it could be later)

2.  Probable Middle (picks 5-8)

3.  Probable late (9-12)

Anytime someone would vote for one of these over the existing options they could add it.

 

[Biabreakable]

Rookie Draft Study

This whole thing is a great read.

So what we have is a never ending cycle where rookies are drafted, depressing the ADP of vets. Then rookies become vets and the large majority of them see a significant increase in ADP as a result of their luster wearing off. This makes room for the next rookie class.

It is paramount to understand that while all this is going on, the good veterans continue to produce regardless of what the new shiny toys do to their ADP. It’s very easy to get caught up in rookie fever, and much of what I’ve presented here could easily feed into that. But the reason we see a huge fall-off from Year two to three is the growing separation from those who can play to those who can’t, but still get two years to try and prove otherwise.

He takes a glass half full approach to the success rate of the rookie players by where they were drafted. Less than a 50% chance of a top 6 rookie pick performing at a useful level for fantasy football, and your odds get worse from there.

 

[Dan Hindery]

I think this is a great suggestion and analysis.  I propose that we classify 2018 1sts into three categories:

1.  Probable Early (picks 1-4... but still a risk that it could be later)

2.  Probable Middle (picks 5-8)

3.  Probable late (9-12)

Anytime someone would vote for one of these over the existing options they could add it.

It's tough because so much of the value of the pick is based upon the specifics of the roster and how the league awards picks. I think that's especially true for 2018, because I see it as a top-heavy class. Saquon Barkley is a stud and I think he's going to make that 1.01 a top-10 dynasty asset right away. But the 1.04 might be more equivalent to the 1.07 this year.

If I knew for 100% sure that a pick was going to be the 1.01 next year, I'd probably take it straight up over the 1.01 this year.

 

[Biabreakable]

McCoy has pulled ahead of Jordy Nelson at 62 votes now.

 

[Brisco54]

This poll is now closed.  LeSean McCoy wins with 14 of 63 votes.

The next poll is available here:  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754960-player-45-community-dynasty-rankings/