POP & LOCK > RB3 TIER > Who's a lock... and whose bubble will pop? (1 Viewer)

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Concept is simple.... 

Pick 3 players you expect to be a LOCK to finish as a RB3 or better
Pick 3 players whose bubbles you expect to POP and they finish outside the RB3 tier

Ratings based on FFCalc ADP PPR Scoring.

After checking the boxes above, offer your rationale below. 

More to come.... 

 

[Gally]

I have the following locks of Sermon, Edmonds, and Harris.  I like everyone in this tier but I think these three are the safest.

• Sermon - I just believe he will be the guy getting the bulk of touches and Mostert will be change of pace.  I think both will be in the RB3 range but I think Sermon gets the chance to be the guy
  
• Edmonds - I think he fits the offense perfectly and will do enough to be a RB3
  
• Harris - He was really good last year and he had a ton of TD's vultured.  I think some of those go his way and he won't be flashy but will be a solid RB play every week and easily finish in the top 36 RB's
  

I have the following pops of Gordon, Jones, and Johnson

• Gordon - I think Williams takes over half way (or before) and Gordon won't get the touches needed to finish as an RB3
  
• Jones - That backfield is a mess and I don't trust any of them to do anything.  
  
• Johnson - Houston is also a mess and I have no idea if they will actually use him the right way (passing game).  I think he still can perform to be an RB3 I just don't have any confidence Houston will allow him to do so. 
  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Chase, ETN & JWill are all pops for me. 

I’ve got Robinson as a pop as I believe talent will win out in the end & ETN will start eating into his carries, while limiting his reception ceiling out of the gate. 

daJo popped last year, and I don’t see the Texans as improved. I see that team as a raging dumpster fire and one that I intend to avoid at all costs. 

Like others, I expect Gordon to be in a timeshare that shrinks as the year goes on, which goes hand in hand with having JWill on the good list. This one’s risky though, and dependent on JWill’s pass pro & ability to make his reads. They’re obviously linked & if JWill falters, it’s gonna be a maddening 60-40 or 50-50 all season.

I also picked Mostert to pop, but I didn’t have Sermon as lock. The Niners priority signing was Gallman - they got that done *immediately* in the offseason, and he was damn good behind a terrible Giants OL. He seems to be dramatically overlooked when folks evaluate this backfield, and if (when) Mostert gets hurt again, I can’t help but feel like “next man up” might be Gallman. Maybe I’m way off base here, but I am a Niners fan, and I recall Shanny saying very nice things about Gallman after the signing. Sermon should get touches regardless of who the lead back is, but I don’t think it’s automatic that he becomes a feature back if Mostert goes down. 

 

[tangfoot]

Locks: None

Pops: Mostert and Fournette