Portis - 1st round pick or still living in Denver (1 Viewer)

[nflguru]

Is Portis worth a top rb pick? He played in a Denver offense that even I could rush for 1,000 yards in and went to Washington with big expectations.After a disappointing season in Denver (based on prior denver year stats), is he worth a first round pick this season?Where has he gone in your draft or where do you expect him to go. Also, who do you have ranked above him? I'm thinking even tiki Barber will have a better season, but most have Portis ranked higher.

 

[Banger]

Is Portis worth a top rb pick? He played in a Denver offense that even I could rush for 1,000 yards in and went to Washington with big expectations.

After a disappointing season in Denver (based on prior denver year stats), is he worth a first round pick this season?

Where has he gone in your draft or where do you expect him to go. Also, who do you have ranked above him? I'm thinking even tiki Barber will have a better season, but most have Portis ranked higher.

I've seen/heard nothing that would make it seem this year will be any different than last....

 

[-OZ-]

Is Portis worth a top rb pick? He played in a Denver offense that even I could rush for 1,000 yards in and went to Washington with big expectations.

After a disappointing season in Denver (based on prior denver year stats), is he worth a first round pick this season?

Where has he gone in your draft or where do you expect him to go. Also, who do you have ranked above him? I'm thinking even tiki Barber will have a better season, but most have Portis ranked higher.

I've seen/heard nothing that would make it seem this year will be any different than last....

Seriously? How about a certain RT being healthy?As for whether Portis is worth a first round pick, I would simply say that if a RB has one of his best (one of the best in the NFL) linemen back healthy, I would think he'd improve on last year. If that RB finished #10 overall last year, I would think he's be worthy of a 1st round pick.

 

[Hellfire Snail]

His TD numbers have nowhere to go but up. He needs Ramsay to play better, much is dependent on the passing game improving for his ypc to improve, but he's still going to touch the ball over 300 times and he's still going to bust loose with big weeks. I like his schedule a bit more this year than last as well. Of course he is a first rounder. The Washington offense was as bad as it could be last year, and as was mentioned, the return of Jansen will help tremendously.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Is Portis worth a top rb pick? He played in a Denver offense that even I could rush for 1,000 yards in and went to Washington with big expectations.

After a disappointing season in Denver (based on prior denver year stats), is he worth a first round pick this season?

Where has he gone in your draft or where do you expect him to go. Also, who do you have ranked above him? I'm thinking even tiki Barber will have a better season, but most have Portis ranked higher.

I've seen/heard nothing that would make it seem this year will be any different than last....

HUGE improvements for the offensive line.

 

[John 14:6]

HUGE improvements for the offensive line.

I also read somewhere that they plan on using him with his skill set more in mind.

His owner in one of my leagues is trying to trade him. It's 12 teams, keep 6, TD only league and I offered him my 1.11 pick for Portis and his 2.10. He's considering it

 

[-OZ-]

I also read somewhere that they plan on using him with his skill set more in mind.

As right as I'm sure you are, this is classic, as it can be said for any player, any team (except Atlanta )

 

[lrecupero]

I also read somewhere that they plan on using him with his skill set more in mind.

Always a sound strategy ..Take that those of you who think Gibbs has lost something off of his fastball

 

[wannabee]

I think the point of the Gibbs detractors is that Gibbs is still trying to find Portis' skill set

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I also read somewhere that they plan on using him with his skill set more in mind.

As right as I'm sure you are, this is classic, as it can be said for any player, any team (except Atlanta )

They did incorporate more zone blocking in their scheme last year which is supposed to carry over into this year.Forget scheme though, Portis is a talented NFL RB, just give him some semi-decent holes and he'll be able to eat up huge chunks of yardage. I see no reason why this current o-line won't be able to be in the top 1/3 of the league in terms of run blocking.

I think a decent estimate for Portis would be 1,400 rushing yards in the 6-10 TD range on substantially less carries.

Luck always plays a huge role in things because of the odd way we score this game, so he'd have to really pile on some TDs to be top 5, but he could see some really good value being taken in the 11-13 spot and finishing around 6 or 7th overall.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

No, but early second sounds about right.

 

[nflguru]

Who do you have ranked above him? outside of LT, Holmes, S Alexander..

 

[4thAndForever]

The problem isn't Portis or the offensive line, it's Gibbs. The game has simply passed him by.

 

[dannyboy]

Portis will post better numbers this year. He's a 1st rounder IMO for sure.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Who do you have ranked above him? outside of LT, Holmes, S Alexander..

Im no paticular order:Mcallister

James

Mcgahee

KJones

Dillon

Manning

RJohnson

DDavis

JLewis

Barber

JJones

 

[NYG Endzone]

I would surely take Portis over JJones and McGahee

 

[Bears_Man2]

I would surely take Portis over JJones and McGahee

And most owners drafting behind you will be very happy you did.

 

[NYG Endzone]

I would surely take Portis over JJones and McGahee

And most owners drafting behind you will be very happy you did.

If you say so. I just believe firmly that Portis (#10 RB last season) can only improve his TD totals and yardage this season. Mcgahee carries more risk with a weak line, rook QB, and a knee. JJ is overvalued

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The problem isn't Portis or the offensive line, it's Gibbs.

The game has simply passed him by.

Yes, that must be it.

 

[theedge]

According to Antsports these are the guys being drafted ahead of him:LaDainian Tomlinson Shaun Alexander Priest Holmes Edgerrin James Deuce McAllister Willis McGahee Domanick Davis

 

[nflguru]

Would take Portis before D Davis. Would most likely take him before Deuce also.

 

[footballman_696969]

325/1365/9 & 40/260/1 - Thats good for for #12 in the WCOFF scoring I dont see that much of an improvement in the Redskins offense this year to bump Portis' numbers up any more than that. I wouldn't take him in the first round this year and I think he is decent value in the early second round.

 

[Bri]

see the player rankings thread, pinned at top.Portis 1300 every year. IMO He's a no brainer

 

[notoriousbob]

I picked him up this year with the 2.02 pick and was pretty happy. He is guaranteed touches and is going to put up numbers. Ramsey has a little more experience, but their WRs make me a little nervous. I was really torn between Portis and J Lewis at the 2.02 pick because I wasn't expecting to have those kinds of options that late, but it came down to Lewis having some comp for touches (Taylor) and all of the injury and prison question marks I couldn't pass up Portis. The phrase "Joe Gibbs feature back" flashed in my head and I picked him. I got DDavis at 1.11 so I have a strong backfield. Now if Tatum Bell would just quit screwing around and take over the #1 spot in Denver...

 

[chisoxzen]

i like portis with the 5th or 6th overall pick this year. anything higher than the first round in a 10 or 12 team league is a steal.

 

[Jinerator]

He played in a Denver offense that even I could rush for 1,000 yards in...

I sincerely doubt that

 

[Rig24]

Fact is, every RB in Denver look like a top NFL back. His ypc dropped form 5.5 to 3.8 after moving to Washington. Ramsey looks terrible so far in a scrimmage and the first game. So I would not expect Portis to improve on last year even with Janson back. Nobody is going to be afraid of the skins WR's this year, so he can expect 8 in the box most every down. Also, talk in town is that Gibbs is looking to use a goal line back.

 

[zamboni]

I would agree with the contingent that believes Portis' stats have nowhere to go but up.That said, I'm not sure if his stats will ultimately approach the level he attained in a much better offensive system under Shanahan.

 

[nflguru]

He played in a Denver offense that even I could rush for 1,000 yards in...

I sincerely doubt that

ok maybe not, but everybody they insert out that way rushes for 1,000+ yards. My projections would be 875 yds and 11 tds - so maybe just under.

 

[mr. furley]

Who do you have ranked above him? outside of LT, Holmes, S Alexander..

Im no paticular order:Mcallister

James

Mcgahee

KJones

Dillon

Manning

RJohnson

DDavis

JLewis

Barber

JJones

Ahman Green is chopped liver now? not even top 15?if he falls to me at 2.04 i'll fall to my knees crying.

 

[AB in DC]

The problem isn't Portis or the offensive line, it's Gibbs.

The game has simply passed him by.

had passed him by. I agree that he was clueless about how to run a 21st century offense -- last year. But he's brought in new assistants and new schemes over the offseason. It would be awfully shortsighted to assume that Gibbs will make the same mistakes in 2005 that he did in his first year back.

 

[Sabertooth]

The problem isn't Portis or the offensive line, it's Gibbs.

The game has simply passed him by.

How old are you?

 

[PunxPack]

I keep seeing all of these posts about how Portis had such a poor year last year. He rushed for 1315 yards, caught 40 balls for 235 more yards (that's 1550 combined yards for the math impaired), and scored 7 total TDs. And that's after losing an all-pro tackle in the pre-season. Also, you need to consider the fact that they had a new quarterback in a new system with a head coach that hadn't stood on a sideline for many years.With Jansen back in the mix, another year under the belt of Gibbs, and a pretty solid defense behind him, is there any reason to believe that he won't add 100-200 yards to last season's totals plus a few TDs?

 

[redman]

I've refrained from posting here until I got a better feel for the offense. Here's my take.

The offense had nowhere to go but up from last year. As others have said, Portis had an acceptable if not outstanding year for a #1 RB in a pathetic offense last year. That offense should be markedly improved.

The primary reason for the improvement is the offensive line. In the two preseason games, the most obvious difference from last year is the o-line. They went from a severely handicapped unit, which was dominated by a combination of a weak center, the loss of RT Jansen, and the inconsistent play of LG Dockery, to a unit that is absolutely stoning first team defenses this pre-season. That includes Carolina which has one of the top D-lines in the league. By getting a healthy Jansen back and by adding Rabach, who is playing very well at center, the only weak spot is Dockery, and he's showing improvement. LT Samuels and RG Randy Thomas are solid as always. This line, if it remains healthy, should be on the short list of the top o-lines in football when it's all said and done this year. The line will make everyone better.

As has been widely reported, they've also changed the running scheme to more of a zone blocking scheme which fits Portis' talents better. Portis starts deeper in the backfield and chooses his own holes and cuts. Because of this, you should see a lot more big plays such as the one versus the Bucs in Week 1 last year, when Portis cut on his own initiative to the backside of the play and ran for a 60+ yard TD. They tried to make some changes in that regard during the season last year, but you can only do so much on the fly. They spent the entire offseason on this and are now fully committed.

I haven't read this anywhere, but I also think that the 'Skins are going to take a less-is-more approach this season to Portis, at least to an extent. While he loves the football and will take any carry that he can get, they have the depth at RB to allow him to get breathers during games that should allow him to finish the year strong without overworking him. Unfortunately, this may mean that he loses goalline carries and therefore TD's. But I think he's still going to end up with more TD's this year than the paltry sum he had last year.

Finally, the passing game looks improved. You couldn't tell that to a lot of 'Skins fans who are all upset that Ramsey has thrown 3 INT's and 1 TD in two preseason games, but that's my take. I like what I'm seeing from this WR corps. Just as Gibbs has planned, they're faster, better route runners overall, and they're getting open much better on intermediate and deep routes. As a whole, I think this WR corps is underrated the way that NE's WR's have been underrated as a group over the last four years. None will likely be WR studs for fantasy purposes, but I can see them making plays to keep drives going in a way that they weren't last year.

Despite Ramsey's preseason stats to date, I see a guy who is making plays in ways that he wasn't last year. And even if Ramsey doesn't get it done, Brunell looks like a different guy from last year - I'm starting to believe the stories about him being injured last year because of this. One of those two guys should be able to lead the offense successfully.

Overall, this is not going to be a top offense. I could, however, see them end up among the top 10-15 offenses in the league by the end of the year, which is more than a sufficient platform to allow Portis to shine.

Here are my Portis stat predictions:

290/1480/11 35/280/1

So I'm predicting 1760 total yards and 12 TD's.

 

[Bri]

redman, that's a nice post. Copy that into his player thread maybe Jason will post it on the site.

 

[redman]

Here's an example as to why I'm optimistic about this offense improving, from today's Wash. Post article regarding David Patten:

"Washington's lengthy quest for plays of 20 yards or more led to Patten becoming a favorite target of Ramsey's, as he hauled in passes of 46, 33 and 30 yards; no Redskins receiver had more than three receptions of 30 or more yards through the entire 2004 season."

This performance was against the first team Bengals defense. Again, while most people - 'Skins fans included - might like to focus on Ramsey's two INT's, this kind of a stat gets lost.

 

[nflguru]

Ramsey is not a bad qb, he had decent targets in the past and they couldn't get it done. Not sure the quote listed will lead to better portis rushing #s

 

[redman]

Ramsey is not a bad qb, he had decent targets in the past and they couldn't get it done. Not sure the quote listed will lead to better portis rushing #s

I posted it because the lack of any pretense at a downfield passing game last year meant that Portis was continually facing 8-9 men in the box, and often with run blitzes. And that was behind an offensive line that was injured and underperforming and utilizing a blocking scheme that didn't suit Portis' game. I think Portis' yards per rush average will be a lot closer to his previous 5.5 average than it was to last year's 3.7 (IIRC) average as a result.

Anyway, a passing game that at least can threaten to bite off chunks of yardage will keep the defense a lot more honest. And more first downs with that passing game means more carries and more TD opportunities for him.

 

[nflguru]

Did you have your draft? If so, what pick did he go (also how many teams in the league)? Wondering where TO went with all of the off field stuff and risk also - maybe he will drop to the 11th pick, if so-not sure i can pull the trigger and worry each week if he will blow up and sit

 

[jwvdcw]

Is Portis worth a top rb pick? He played in a Denver offense that even I could rush for 1,000 yards in and went to Washington with big expectations.

After a disappointing season in Denver (based on prior denver year stats), is he worth a first round pick this season?

Where has he gone in your draft or where do you expect him to go. Also, who do you have ranked above him? I'm thinking even tiki Barber will have a better season, but most have Portis ranked higher.

I've seen/heard nothing that would make it seem this year will be any different than last....

Portis had everything go wrong for him last year and he still finished as a top 10 RB...so how can he not be a first round pick this year?

 

[nflguru]

I just saw a post that indicated he slipped to an early 2nd round, Im pretty sure he will be gone in the first 7 picks in our league and wont slip to me at pick #11 (of 12 teams) Thinking Barber will have a better season and he will be there at #11 anyways.

 

[nflguru]

I agree washington will be better this year and portis should have decent numbers, but in a re-draft - I would take Edge over him. Lewis worries me too, folks are saying he will have another break out season and is in great shape.

Duece is in a poor offense as mentioned (not sure what happened to brooks, but they looked like the next ram offense a couple years back and tanked from there) The need to let him run with the football again ala Vick.

 

[redman]

The primary reason for the improvement is the offensive line. In the two preseason games, the most obvious difference from last year is the o-line. They went from a severely handicapped unit, which was dominated by a combination of a weak center, the loss of RT Jansen, and the inconsistent play of LG Dockery, to a unit that is absolutely stoning first team defenses this pre-season. That includes Carolina which has one of the top D-lines in the league. By getting a healthy Jansen back and by adding Rabach, who is playing very well at center, the only weak spot is Dockery, and he's showing improvement. LT Samuels and RG Randy Thomas are solid as always. This line, if it remains healthy, should be on the short list of the top o-lines in football when it's all said and done this year. The line will make everyone better.

In case you missed tonight's game vs. the Steelers, the line did nothing but bear out my statements above. This unit has come together big time, and was man-handling the Steelers 1st team defense, who BTW never got Ramsey or Brunell dirty. And Portis was slashing for 6, 8, 10, 14 yards on seemingly every play. Every RB actually ran very well. If Portis drops below RB 7 or so, I think you're getting a bargain. This is NOT the same offense you saw a year ago.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

This is NOT the same offense you saw a year ago.

Yes it is.They just have better and/or healthier players executing it.

The o-line looked fantastic though, I'll give them credit.

 

[Biabreakable]

The primary reason for the improvement is the offensive line.  In the two preseason games, the most obvious difference from last year is the o-line.  They went from a severely handicapped unit, which was dominated by a combination of a weak center, the loss of RT Jansen, and the inconsistent play of LG Dockery, to a unit that is absolutely stoning first team defenses this pre-season.  That includes Carolina which has one of the top D-lines in the league.  By getting a healthy Jansen back and by adding Rabach, who is playing very well at center, the only weak spot is Dockery, and he's showing improvement.  LT Samuels and RG Randy Thomas are solid as always. This line, if it remains healthy, should be on the short list of the top o-lines in football when it's all said and done this year.  The line will make everyone better. 

In case you missed tonight's game vs. the Steelers, the line did nothing but bear out my statements above. This unit has come together big time, and was man-handling the Steelers 1st team defense, who BTW never got Ramsey or Brunell dirty. And Portis was slashing for 6, 8, 10, 14 yards on seemingly every play. Every RB actually ran very well. If Portis drops below RB 7 or so, I think you're getting a bargain. This is NOT the same offense you saw a year ago.

I agree about the Oline Red and Portis is going to be very very busy this year. The passing game I think will still stink but good enough to convert short 3rd downs when needed.Heres hoping for Portis to stay healthy with such a workload. I think he may catch more passes this year as well.

 

[redman]

To this point the only concerns I'd have about Portis if I'm drafting in the 1st round are 1) that offense is not geared to throw the ball to the RB's, and to the extent they are, Gibbs loves Betts in that role; and 2) While we didn't get to see a goalline situation tonight, it still appears that either Broughton or Cartwright or both will vulture TD's from Portis. Still, I think the running lanes you saw were not preseason flukes but were an indication of how far this line has come. Even if Ramsey does no better than what he showed tonight, that's more than adequate to run a successful offense feature Portis and the running game.

 

[redman]

Look here if you want to see a video compilation of all of Portis' touches (8 rushes, 1 rec.) from last night.

BTW, the kid (he's 17) who runs this site looks like he's going to compile video every week, so bookmark that site if you have 'Skins players you can't watch live.

 

[dB02]

I got Portis in a steal at 17 overallputs my RBs at Edge, Portis, Rudi and LaMont... Not a very strong league =]Hoping to trade one for a stud WR

 

[jurb26]

I got Portis in a steal at 17 overall

puts my RBs at Edge, Portis, Rudi and LaMont... Not a very strong league =]

Hoping to trade one for a stud WR

Yeah, I got him at 19 last week to go along with SA, Rudi and Caddy. I love when people overreact to an average year from a top 10 RB.

 

[Big Score]

1) that offense is not geared to throw the ball to the RB's, and to the extent they are, Gibbs loves Betts in that role; and

I read and like a lot of your stuff redman, but I think the above is off. If we go by last year (which conincidentally, is the only year of history we have to go with, as far as it concerns Portis, Betts & Gibbs) Portis, by far & away, was Gibbs favored pass catching RB. Portis was the 9th most frequently targeted RB in regards to passes to RB's in the entire NFL last year, with 63 targets.

Betts was a small blip on the radar (60th most targeted RB with 25). In fact in the Skins last game of the year, when Portis was out and Betts was the featured runner, he was only targted in the passing game once! so I'm not exactly sure where you're getting the, "that offense is not geared to throw the ball to the RB's", or "Gibbs loves Betts in that role" stuff?

2) While we didn't get to see a goalline situation tonight, it still appears that either Broughton or Cartwright or both will vulture TD's from Portis.

I have heard nothing concrete from either the Redskins Coaches in particular, or the Redskins organization in general, to back this statement up.I have read various beat writers speculate, insinuate and make general inuendos that they think this might happen.

I don't normally put a whole lot of stock in what beat writers put out, unless there's some corroberating info from a reliable source. Especially this time of year, when speculative stories seem to take on a life of their own.