Positions with the highest bust rate 1995-2006 (1 Viewer)

[Bruno2]

In a previous thread it was discussed that QBs drafted in the 1st round seemed to bust more often than players at other positions. After a couple hours of research I determined this to be untrue. While it may seem the QB position busts out more because of the media attention focused on the position it turns out since the 1995 draft WRs top the list at a 65% bust rate. Followed by OT (64%), RB (61%), DE (59%), DL (55%), FS/SS (53%), CBs (53%), LB (48%), QB (47%), TE (40%) and G/C (33%).

For these purposes my definition of "bust" is a player drafted by a team in the 1st round that does not live up to expectations by the team that drafted them. Ex. Cut from the team after a year or two, never becomes a starter (career backup), career cut short by injury, player has a successful career with another team that did NOT draft them (Simeon Rice, Thomas Jones). Obviously, for some of the '04, '05 and '06 draftees the jury is still out on them, in fairness to players like Aaron Rodgers, AJ Hawk and Ronnie Brown, I didn't evaluate them.

To keep from making this thread 2 miles long, I'll just list the players I consider busts at each position, if there is enough discussion and if anyone even cares, I can later add the other players.

WRs-65%

1995

1.04 Michael Westbrook-Was

1.10 JJ Stokes-SF

1996

1.18 Eddie Kennison-StL

1997

1.07 Ike Hilliard-NYG

1.15 Yatil Green-Mia

1.16 Reidel Anthony-TB

1.27 Rae Carruth-Car

1998

1.16 Kevin Dyson-Ten

1.30 Marcus Nash-Den

1999

1.08 David Boston-Ari

1.13 Troy Edwards-Pit

2000

1.04 Peter Warrick-Cin

1.10 Travis Taylor-Bal

1.21 Sylvester Morris-KC

1.29 R. Jay Soward-Jac

2001

1.08 David Terrell-Chi

1.09 Koren Robinson-Sea

1.15 Rod Gardner-Was

1.25 Freddie Mitchell-Phi

2002

1.13 Donte Stallworth-NO

1.19 Ashley Lelie-Den

2003

1.02 Charles Rogers-Det

1.17 Bryant Johnson-Ari

2004

1.09 Reggie Williams-Jac

1.15 Michael Clayton-TB

1.29 Michael Jenkins-Atl

1.31 Rashaun Woods-SF

2005

1.07 Troy Williamson-Min

1.10 Mike Williams-Det

1.27 Roddy White-Atl

CBs-65%

1995

1.22 Tyrone Poole-Car

1.32 Craig Newsome-GB

1996

1.11 Alex Molden-NO

1.13 Walt Harris-Chi

1997

1.05 Bryant Westbrook-Det

1.09 Tommy Knight-Ari

1.11 Michael Booker-Atl

1.24 Chad Scott-Pit

1.29 Chris Canty-NE

1998

1.10 Duane Starks-Bal

1.20 Terry Fair-Det

1.28 RW McQuarters-SF

1999

1.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf

1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac

2000

1.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den

1.23 Rashard Anderson-Car

2001

1.22 Will Allen-NYG

1.24 Willie Middlebrooks-Den

1.26 Jamar Fletcher-Mia

2002

1.17 Phillip Buchanan-Oak

1.27 Mike Rumph-SF

2003

1.28 Andre Woolfork-Ten

1.30 Sammy Davis-SD

2004

1.25 Ahmad Carroll-GB

In relation, the QBs have a 47% bust rate. Clearly there are less QBs drafted in the first round compared to WRs and CBs, because of team needs which leads to a higher incidence of busts for the other positons.

Since 1995, there are only 9 definite busts at the QB position out of 29 QBs drafted in the first round.

Jim Druckenmiller

Ryan Leaf

Tim Couch

Akili Smith

Cade McNown

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Kyle Boller

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

 

[prymetyme25]

In a previous thread it was discussed that QBs drafted in the 1st round seemed to bust more often than players at other positions. After a couple hours of research I determined this to be untrue. While it may seem the QB position busts out more because of the media attention focused on the position it turns out since the 1995 draft WRs and CBs top the list at a 65% bust rate. Followed by OT (64%), RB (61%), DE (59%), DL (55%), FS/SS (53%), LB (48%), QB (47%), TE (40%) and G/C (33%).

For these purposes my definition of "bust" is a player drafted by a team in the 1st round that does not live up to expectations by the team that drafted them. Ex. Cut from the team after a year or two, never becomes a starter (career backup), career cut short by injury, player has a successful career with another team that did NOT draft them (Simeon Rice, Thomas Jones). Obviously, for some of the '04, '05 and '06 draftees the jury is still out on them, in fairness to players like Aaron Rodgers, AJ Hawk and Ronnie Brown, I didn't evaluate them.

To keep from making this thread 2 miles long, I'll just list the players I consider busts at each position, if there is enough discussion and if anyone even cares, I can later add the other players.

WRs-65%

1995

1.04 Brian Westbrook-Was

1.10 JJ Stokes-SF

1996

1.18 Eddie Kennison-StL

1997

1.07 Ike Hilliard-NYG

1.15 Yatil Green-Mia

1.16 Reidel Anthony-TB

1.27 Rae Carruth-Car

1998

1.16 Kevin Dyson-Ten

1.30 Marcus Nash-Den

1999

1.08 David Boston-Ari

1.13 Troy Edwards-Pit

2000

1.04 Peter Warrick-Cin

1.10 Travis Taylor-Bal

1.21 Sylvester Morris-KC

1.29 R. Jay Soward-Jac

2001

1.08 David Terrell-Chi

1.09 Koren Robinson-Sea

1.15 Rod Gardner-Was

1.25 Freddie Mitchell-Phi

2002

1.13 Donte Stallworth-NO

1.19 Ashley Lelie-Den

2003

1.02 Charles Rogers-Det

1.17 Bryant Johnson-Ari

2004

1.09 Reggie Williams-Jac

1.15 Michael Clayton-TB

1.29 Michael Jenkins-Atl

1.31 Rashaun Woods-SF

2005

1.07 Troy Williamson-Min

1.10 Mike Williams-Det

1.27 Roddy White-Atl

CBs-65%

1995

1.22 Tyrone Poole-Car

1.32 Craig Newsome-GB

1996

1.11 Alex Molden-NO

1.13 Walt Harris-Chi

1997

1.05 Bryant Westbrook-Det

1.09 Tommy Knight-Ari

1.11 Michael Booker-Atl

1.24 Chad Scott-Pit

1.29 Chris Canty-NE

1998

1.10 Duane Starks-Bal

1.20 Terry Fair-Det

1.28 RW McQuarters-SF

1999

1.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf

1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac

2000

1.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den

1.23 Rashard Anderson-Car

2001

1.22 Will Allen-NYG

1.24 Willie Middlebrooks-Den

1.26 Jamar Fletcher-Mia

2002

1.17 Phillip Buchanan-Oak

1.27 Mike Rumph-SF

2003

1.28 Andre Woolfork-Ten

1.30 Sammy Davis-SD

2004

1.25 Ahmad Carroll-GB

In relation, the QBs have a 47% bust rate. Clearly there are less QBs drafted in the first round compared to WRs and CBs, because of team needs which leads to a higher incidence of busts for the other positons.

Since 1995, there are only 9 definite busts at the QB position out of 29 QBs drafted in the first round.

Jim Druckenmiller

Ryan Leaf

Tim Couch

Akili Smith

Cade McNown

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Kyle Boller

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

I think you mean Micheal Westbrook.And Yatil Green if there was ever another Cant miss prospect this was it. WOW

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

1995

1.04 Brian Westbrook-Was

Should be Michael "I kicked Stephen Davis' butt" Westbrook.

 

[Bruno2]

In a previous thread it was discussed that QBs drafted in the 1st round seemed to bust more often than players at other positions. After a couple hours of research I determined this to be untrue. While it may seem the QB position busts out more because of the media attention focused on the position it turns out since the 1995 draft WRs and CBs top the list at a 65% bust rate. Followed by OT (64%), RB (61%), DE (59%), DL (55%), FS/SS (53%), LB (48%), QB (47%), TE (40%) and G/C (33%).

For these purposes my definition of "bust" is a player drafted by a team in the 1st round that does not live up to expectations by the team that drafted them. Ex. Cut from the team after a year or two, never becomes a starter (career backup), career cut short by injury, player has a successful career with another team that did NOT draft them (Simeon Rice, Thomas Jones). Obviously, for some of the '04, '05 and '06 draftees the jury is still out on them, in fairness to players like Aaron Rodgers, AJ Hawk and Ronnie Brown, I didn't evaluate them.

To keep from making this thread 2 miles long, I'll just list the players I consider busts at each position, if there is enough discussion and if anyone even cares, I can later add the other players.

WRs-65%

1995

1.04 Brian Westbrook-Was

1.10 JJ Stokes-SF

1996

1.18 Eddie Kennison-StL

1997

1.07 Ike Hilliard-NYG

1.15 Yatil Green-Mia

1.16 Reidel Anthony-TB

1.27 Rae Carruth-Car

1998

1.16 Kevin Dyson-Ten

1.30 Marcus Nash-Den

1999

1.08 David Boston-Ari

1.13 Troy Edwards-Pit

2000

1.04 Peter Warrick-Cin

1.10 Travis Taylor-Bal

1.21 Sylvester Morris-KC

1.29 R. Jay Soward-Jac

2001

1.08 David Terrell-Chi

1.09 Koren Robinson-Sea

1.15 Rod Gardner-Was

1.25 Freddie Mitchell-Phi

2002

1.13 Donte Stallworth-NO

1.19 Ashley Lelie-Den

2003

1.02 Charles Rogers-Det

1.17 Bryant Johnson-Ari

2004

1.09 Reggie Williams-Jac

1.15 Michael Clayton-TB

1.29 Michael Jenkins-Atl

1.31 Rashaun Woods-SF

2005

1.07 Troy Williamson-Min

1.10 Mike Williams-Det

1.27 Roddy White-Atl

CBs-65%

1995

1.22 Tyrone Poole-Car

1.32 Craig Newsome-GB

1996

1.11 Alex Molden-NO

1.13 Walt Harris-Chi

1997

1.05 Bryant Westbrook-Det

1.09 Tommy Knight-Ari

1.11 Michael Booker-Atl

1.24 Chad Scott-Pit

1.29 Chris Canty-NE

1998

1.10 Duane Starks-Bal

1.20 Terry Fair-Det

1.28 RW McQuarters-SF

1999

1.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf

1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac

2000

1.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den

1.23 Rashard Anderson-Car

2001

1.22 Will Allen-NYG

1.24 Willie Middlebrooks-Den

1.26 Jamar Fletcher-Mia

2002

1.17 Phillip Buchanan-Oak

1.27 Mike Rumph-SF

2003

1.28 Andre Woolfork-Ten

1.30 Sammy Davis-SD

2004

1.25 Ahmad Carroll-GB

In relation, the QBs have a 47% bust rate. Clearly there are less QBs drafted in the first round compared to WRs and CBs, because of team needs which leads to a higher incidence of busts for the other positons.

Since 1995, there are only 9 definite busts at the QB position out of 29 QBs drafted in the first round.

Jim Druckenmiller

Ryan Leaf

Tim Couch

Akili Smith

Cade McNown

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Kyle Boller

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

I think you mean Micheal Westbrook.And Yatil Green if there was ever another Cant miss prospect this was it. WOW

FIXED

 

[jurb26]

Are you listing only the players you see as busts?

If so, there are several on that CB list I would disagree with.

 

[prymetyme25]

19951.04 Brian Westbrook-WasShould be Michael "I kicked Stephen Davis' butt" Westbrook.

hate to hi jack this thread but I cringe evertime I heard that last shot he gave him. OUCH!!!

 

[prymetyme25]

Are you listing only the players you see as busts? If so, there are several on that CB list I would disagree with.

yeah alot of those guys may not have played up to their draft status but far from bust.Walt Harris, winfield and even McQuarters come to mind. Definitely not bust

 

[jurb26]

I'm really struggling to see how any of these guys are busts :

1995

1.22 Tyrone Poole-Car - 142 career starts

1996

1.13 Walt Harris-Chi - 162 career starts and a Pro Bowl selection

1997

1.24 Chad Scott-Pit - 108 career starts

1998

1.10 Duane Starks-Bal - 97 career starts

1.28 RW McQuarters-SF - 131 career starts

1999

1.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf - 118 career starts

1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac - 94 career starts

2000

1.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den - 100 career starts and a Pro Bowl section

2001

1.22 Will Allen-NYG - 87 career starts

 

[Bruno2]

Are you listing only the players you see as busts? If so, there are several on that CB list I would disagree with.

Yes only bust players are listed. I'd like to hear your arguments, there were some definite borderline CBs, who could have gone either way. I'm not an IDP guy, so I can possibly be convinced to change a few of them.

 

[jurb26]

Are you listing only the players you see as busts? If so, there are several on that CB list I would disagree with.

yeah alot of those guys may not have played up to their draft status but far from bust.Walt Harris, winfield and even McQuarters come to mind. Definitely not bust

Agreed and I would add a few more... which I did. Just becuase these guys are not going to Pro Bowl after Pro Bowl that does not make them busts IMO. CB is a very different bread from other positions. Just being a starter for several years = quality pick if you ask me.

 

[prymetyme25]

Are you listing only the players you see as busts? If so, there are several on that CB list I would disagree with.

yeah alot of those guys may not have played up to their draft status but far from bust.Walt Harris, winfield and even McQuarters come to mind. Definitely not bust

Agreed and I would add a few more... which I did. Just becuase these guys are not going to Pro Bowl after Pro Bowl that does not make them busts IMO. CB is a very different bread from other positions. Just being a starter for several years = quality pick if you ask me.

true if you can start in the NFL at CB more than 5-7 years you shouldn't be on this list.

 

[Bruno2]

I'm really struggling to see how any of these guys are busts :19951.22 Tyrone Poole-Car19961.13 Walt Harris-Chi19971.24 Chad Scott-Pit19981.10 Duane Starks-Bal1.28 RW McQuarters-SF19991.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac20001.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den20011.22 Will Allen-NYG

According to my definition of bust, players like Poole had better careers with other teams than the one that drafted him, he was only in Carolina for 3 years.Your are right with Walt Harris and Scott probably shouldn't be on the list.As for Starks, he had 4 good years with Balt, is that acceptable for a top 10 pick? I'd expect more than 4 good years. McQuarters was only with the 49ers for 2 years, not a bad player but I consider him a bust because, if I were a GM I would hope my 1st rounders stick around for more than 2 years.I guess I could be convinced to take Winfield off that list as well.Fernando Bryant-5 career INTs for a 1st rounder?Deltha O'Neal is decent player, but IMO his career took off when he went to Ciny.Will Allen had a career high 4 INTs his rookie year, decent player, just not 1st round talent IMO

 

[jwb]

1.17 Bryant Johnson-Ari1.07 Troy Williamson-Min

I'm not quite ready to call these two busts yet.

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

True that the body of work isn't huge for most of these guys, but I'd say Rivers, Big Ben, Leinart, Cutler, and Young are all pretty safe from bust territory.

 

[jurb26]

I'm really struggling to see how any of these guys are busts :

1995

1.22 Tyrone Poole-Car

1996

1.13 Walt Harris-Chi

1997

1.24 Chad Scott-Pit

1998

1.10 Duane Starks-Bal

1.28 RW McQuarters-SF

1999

1.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf

1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac

2000

1.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den

2001

1.22 Will Allen-NYG

According to my definition of bust, players like Poole had better careers with other teams than the one that drafted him, he was only in Carolina for 3 years.Your are right with Walt Harris and Scott probably shouldn't be on the list.

As for Starks, he had 4 good years with Balt, is that acceptable for a top 10 pick? I'd expect more than 4 good years. McQuarters was only with the 49ers for 2 years, not a bad player but I consider him a bust because, if I were a GM I would hope my 1st rounders stick around for more than 2 years.

I guess I could be convinced to take Winfield off that list as well.

Fernando Bryant-5 career INTs for a 1st rounder?

Deltha O'Neal is decent player, but IMO his career took off when he went to Ciny.

Will Allen had a career high 4 INTs his rookie year, decent player, just not 1st round talent IMO

I can't recall why guys like Poole and McQuarters only stayed on their original teams for short periods of time, but IIRC they were solid players while there. If I were to guess it would be a salary cap/contract issue as starting CBs demand a pretty penny. Why should they have their reputations as overall players tainted and become labled a bust just because they only played on a certian team for a few years. Couldn't it just be that those teams let them go too soon? O'Neal made the Pro Bowl as a Bronco 2001.... he has yet to do that in Cinci.

The major problem with fans in evaluating CBs is that they typically only look for Ints in doing so. Not that it's their fault, we live in a highlight real world. Guys like Allen, Bryant, Scott and Starks may not be stars but they are far from busts. Look at the number of career starts I posted for these guys. You don't "bust" and keep finding yourself on the field that much. CB is a thankless position in the NFL. If these guys are not picking off 10 passes a year nobody know or cares who they are (unless they start for your fav team).

 

[Bruno2]

I'm really struggling to see how any of these guys are busts :19951.22 Tyrone Poole-Car19961.13 Walt Harris-Chi19971.24 Chad Scott-Pit19981.10 Duane Starks-Bal1.28 RW McQuarters-SF19991.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac20001.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den20011.22 Will Allen-NYG

According to my definition of bust, players like Poole had better careers with other teams than the one that drafted him, he was only in Carolina for 3 years.Your are right with Walt Harris and Scott probably shouldn't be on the list.As for Starks, he had 4 good years with Balt, is that acceptable for a top 10 pick? I'd expect more than 4 good years. McQuarters was only with the 49ers for 2 years, not a bad player but I consider him a bust because, if I were a GM I would hope my 1st rounders stick around for more than 2 years.I guess I could be convinced to take Winfield off that list as well.Fernando Bryant-5 career INTs for a 1st rounder?Deltha O'Neal is decent player, but IMO his career took off when he went to Ciny.Will Allen had a career high 4 INTs his rookie year, decent player, just not 1st round talent IMO

I can't recall why guys like Poole and McQuarters only stayed on their original teams for short periods of time, but IIRC they were solid players while there. If I were to guess it would be a salary cap/contract issue as starting CBs demand a pretty penny. Why should they have their reputations as overall players tainted and become labled a bust just because they only played on a certian team for a few years. Couldn't it just be that those teams let them go too soon? O'Neal made the Pro Bowl as a Bronco 2001.... he has yet to do that in Cinci.The major problem with fans in evaluating CBs is that they typically only look for Ints in doing so. Not that it's their fault, we live in a highlight real world. Guys like Allen, Bryant, Scott and Starks may not me stars but they are far from busts. CB is a thankless position in the NFL. If these guys are not picking off 10 passes a year nobody know or cares who they are (unless they start for your fav team).

I totally understand your argument. I shouldn't have used the word bust. The bust always brings to mind the Ryan Leafs of the NFL. Obviously I'm not saying all these guys are Ryan Leafs. As far as evaluating CBs, your right, I haven't watched every game ever played since '95 and I'm aware that good CBs don't have to intercept every pass thrown their way. Its basically just one guy's opinion.

 

[comfortably numb]

1.17 Bryant Johnson-Ari1.07 Troy Williamson-Min

I'm not quite ready to call these two busts yet.

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

True that the body of work isn't huge for most of these guys, but I'd say Rivers, Big Ben, Leinart, Cutler, and Young are all pretty safe from bust territory.

I agree with you on the 1st part.on the 2nd; you can honestly say that they are "pretty safe" from bust territory after 1 year???Anyone one of these guys (excluding Ben) could still very easily become busts.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

Not a bust to the team that drafted him!

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

Not a bust to the team that drafted him!

Good point.

 

[jwb]

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

True that the body of work isn't huge for most of these guys, but I'd say Rivers, Big Ben, Leinart, Cutler, and Young are all pretty safe from bust territory.

I agree with you on the 1st part.on the 2nd; you can honestly say that they are "pretty safe" from bust territory after 1 year???Anyone one of these guys (excluding Ben) could still very easily become busts.

I think the fact that Young, Leinart, and Cutler all got on the field year 1 and performed well (not simply "good enough") says a lot. Rivers is beyond year one, but it may as well have been his first year, and he played well, too. I hear your point that one year does not make a career. That being said, how many 1st round picks came in so soon, played well (and not just for a game or two), then crashed?

 

[Blood Farmer]

I'm really struggling to see how any of these guys are busts :19951.22 Tyrone Poole-Car19961.13 Walt Harris-Chi19971.24 Chad Scott-Pit19981.10 Duane Starks-Bal1.28 RW McQuarters-SF19991.23 Antoine Winfield-Buf1.26 Fernando Bryant-Jac20001.15 Deltha O'Neal-Den20011.22 Will Allen-NYG

According to my definition of bust, players like Poole had better careers with other teams than the one that drafted him, he was only in Carolina for 3 years.Your are right with Walt Harris and Scott probably shouldn't be on the list.As for Starks, he had 4 good years with Balt, is that acceptable for a top 10 pick? I'd expect more than 4 good years. McQuarters was only with the 49ers for 2 years, not a bad player but I consider him a bust because, if I were a GM I would hope my 1st rounders stick around for more than 2 years.I guess I could be convinced to take Winfield off that list as well.Fernando Bryant-5 career INTs for a 1st rounder?Deltha O'Neal is decent player, but IMO his career took off when he went to Ciny.Will Allen had a career high 4 INTs his rookie year, decent player, just not 1st round talent IMO

I don't think you should include this definition if you a attempting to define *Players at a position that bust*. Only use this definition if you are attempting to define *Draft PICKS that did not produce*. I don't think you can say that Steve Young was a bust.

 

[Bruno2]

OK, I like Jurb26's argument so I'll take Walt Harris, Chad Scott, Antoine Winfield and Deltha O'Neal off my "bust" list. Thats knocks the CBs down to 53%. I appreciate the responses. Here's my revised list with the "underacheivers"(busts too harsh) and the list of the ones who lived up to expectations.

CBs-53%

1995

Ty Law HIT

Craig Newsome MISS

Tyrone Poole MISS

1996

Walt Harris HIT

Alex Molden MISS

1997

Shawn Springs HIT

Bryant Westbrook MISS

Tommy Knight MISS

Michael Booker MISS

Chad Scott HIT

Chris Canty MISS

1998

Charles Woodson HIT

Duane Starks MISS

Terry Fair MISS

RW McQuarters MISS

1999

Champ Bailey HIT

Chris McAlister HIT

Antoine Winfield HIT

Fernando Bryant MISS

2000

Ahmed Plummer HIT

Deltha O'Neal HIT

Rashard Anderson MISS

2001

Nate Clements HIT

Will Allen MISS

Willie Middlebrooks MISS

Jamar Fletcher MISS

2002

Lito Sheppherd HIT

Quinten Jammer HIT

Phillip Buchanan MISS

Mike Rumph MISS

2003

Terrence Newman HIT

Marcus Trufant HIT

Nnamdi Asomugha HIT

Andre Woolfolk MISS

Sammy Davis MISS

2004

DeAngelo Hall HIT

Dunta Robinson HIT

Chris Gamble HIT

Ahmed Carroll MISS

 

[jurb26]

OK, I like Jurb26's argument so I'll take Walt Harris, Chad Scott, Antoine Winfield and Deltha O'Neal off my "bust" list. Thats knocks the CBs down to 53%. I appreciate the responses. Here's my revised list with the "underacheivers"(busts too harsh) and the list of the ones who lived up to expectations.CBs-53%1995Ty Law HITCraig Newsome MISSTyrone Poole MISS1996Walt Harris HIT Alex Molden MISS1997Shawn Springs HITBryant Westbrook MISSTommy Knight MISSMichael Booker MISSChad Scott HITChris Canty MISS1998Charles Woodson HITDuane Starks MISSTerry Fair MISSRW McQuarters MISS1999Champ Bailey HITChris McAlister HITAntoine Winfield HITFernando Bryant MISS2000Ahmed Plummer HITDeltha O'Neal HITRashard Anderson MISS2001Nate Clements HITWill Allen MISSWillie Middlebrooks MISSJamar Fletcher MISS2002Lito Sheppherd HITQuinten Jammer HITPhillip Buchanan MISSMike Rumph MISS2003Terrence Newman HIT Marcus Trufant HITNnamdi Asomugha HITAndre Woolfolk MISSSammy Davis MISS2004DeAngelo Hall HITDunta Robinson HITChris Gamble HITAhmed Carroll MISS

I can live with that.

 

[massraider]

So a conclusion we can draw is that QB is actually one of the safer picks a team can make in the first round.

There's a lot of people that need to read this thread.

 

[Snotbubbles]

If Kyle Boller is a bust...what's Rex Grossman.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

There was an article a few years ago -- I'm almost certain it was at drafthistory.com, but I haven't been able to find it the last few times I looked for it.

I think it considered only top ten draft picks rather than all first-rounders.

It measured bust rates at different positions and concluded that WR had the highest bust rate, OL had the lowest bust rate, and QB was right in the middle of all the positions. And they noted that QBs drafted in the top ten, much more so than at other positions, were very often either superstars or complete busts with very few guys in between just becoming average starters.

I wish I could find the article.

Obviously, how one defines a "bust" makes a big difference.

 

[Couch Potato]

So a conclusion we can draw is that QB is actually one of the safer picks a team can make in the first round.

There's a lot of people that need to read this thread.

It's good that you brought folks back to the point of the thread, rather than having it become a discussion over specific individuals.The miss rate for 1st round picks is generally 50%+ or more, I think is the point, in terms of expectation when we take a guy in a rookie draft. And that's just the NFL 1st rounders -- it gets worse as you go deeper.

So what's the lesson? If you're sitting with a mid-2nd round rookie pick, you may think you have some real value there when you probably don't. If you can trade that pick for an established player who will be useful to you, it may be better to do so and let your trade partner take the risk. Two months into the season you're often able to pick the guy you would have drafted off of the WW.

 

[Willowdoc]

I think you are far too hard on wide recievers and defensive backs. I doubt that Baltimore would say that Duane Starks was a bust draft pick or that New Orleans would say that about Stallworth. For this to have any meaning, you have to have defined and fair criteria that is interchangable between positions (this has to be really hard to do by the way). You seem to define a hit as something akin to making the probowl at least once (well at every position but quarterback where you give alot more leeway). Just taking a stab here, but how about 4 categories - star - making the pro bowl (which is really really arbitrary, but I couldn't think of anything else to delineate it off the bat), safe - starting at least 1/2 of your teams games over the first five years (the average length of a rookie contract), poor - not reaching the safe criteria, but still in the league, bust - cut from the league before the end of your rookie contract. I think you need to exclude players who suffered career ending injuries as well, KiJana Carter is a bust draft pick, but we really don't know how good he would have been if he hadn't been injured.

As for quarterbacks, my definition would be different, has the QB taken his team to the playoffs at least once during his rookie contract. Thats what you draft 1st round QBs for. Don't know how to translate that into other positions though.

edited for proper English

 

[stevegamer]

Another issue is that some of these guys left their original team via trade, etc.

By Bruno2's definiton, both of the following players are busts:

Eli Manning

Phillip Rivers

As soon as they were traded for each other, they BOTH became busts, because the original drafting team didn't get production.

Yet, if the picks were traded before the draft - like in the Vick deal - they wouldn't be busts.

By this definition, Clinton Portis would be abust, if he had been picked in round 1, because he played just 2 years for the Broncos, before being traded.

I think any players who were traded should be evaluated on their career, not necessarily whether the original drafting team made a good decision on their talents or not.

 

[massraider]

Another issue is that some of these guys left their original team via trade, etc.By Bruno2's definiton, both of the following players are busts:Eli ManningPhillip RiversAs soon as they were traded for each other, they BOTH became busts, because the original drafting team didn't get production.Yet, if the picks were traded before the draft - like in the Vick deal - they wouldn't be busts.By this definition, Clinton Portis would be abust, if he had been picked in round 1, because he played just 2 years for the Broncos, before being traded.I think any players who were traded should be evaluated on their career, not necessarily whether the original drafting team made a good decision on their talents or not.

Bruno2 already said the jury was still out on Rivers and Manning, so that means he didn't include them in the 'bust' category. So those two guys aren't skewing the stats.Under your definition, players should be evaluated on their careers, but one can punch holes i that definition as well. If a guy busts out with his team, and puts it together with someone else, you can't call that a bust, or a 'failed pick'?I don't care if RW McQuarters put together a solid career, that was a bust of a 1st rounder. So was Stallworth. He was traded for a 4th and a bag of peanuts 4 years later.

 

[Bruno2]

Ok Ok, We've established that the "bust" word should only be used for the players who completely flamed out like, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Rashaan Salaam, Lawrence Phillips and Mike Mamula. The whole point I was trying to make was that drafting a QB in the 1st round is not a huge risk when compared to the other positions.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Some comments on bust rates from other sources:

"[O]ffensive tackles have one of the lowest bust rates of top 10 picks." -- Chris Maier

"You might be surprised to know that the two positions that have the highest bust rate in the first round over the last decade, each hovering near 50 percent, are quarterback and receiver." -- Nolan Nawrocki

"I remembered someone here (I think it was Hook), who did a study of the bust rate of top picks by position. LT was by far the least likely to bust." -- commenter at FO.com (comment #116)

"Do not draft a receiver in the first round. Every year, some receiver wows the scouts with a 4.2 forty, etc., etc., but first round receivers are even riskier than first round quarterbacks. Since 2000, 39 receivers have been picked in the first round. Of these, 20 are starters, and only 4 have made the Pro Bowl. 5 are outright busts (drafted in the top 10 and no longer playing). Compare this to first round tight ends in the same period. There were 12 drafted, 4 have made the pro bowl, and all are starters with their original teams. ... Take a highly rated safety in the first round. Recent safeties picked highly are: Roy Williams, Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, Bob Sanders and Troy Polamalu. These have all become cornerstones of their defenses." -- Bill Chuang

"Here’s an enriched chart [showing the bust rates of first-round picks at four offensive positions]:

Quarterback -- 30% busts

Tackles -- 11% busts

Receivers -- 51% busts

Running backs -- 23% busts" -- Rafael Vela (he shows his complete analysis)

"First, you have to understand the bust rate at the top of the draft is extremely high. It's even higher for receivers." -- Jean-Jacques Taylor

"The Final Bust Totals, based on my subjective opinion, by relevant position, 2000-2004. I'm NOT NOT NOT calling this "proof" of anything. It's too subjective and there are too many variables, and too limited a timeframe. I'm simply illustrating a point here.

Offensive Tackles (Joe Thomas): 62%

Wide Receivers (Calvin Johnson): 57%

Defensive Tackles (Amobi Okoye): 53%

Defensive Ends (Jamaal Anderson, Gaines Adams): 53%

Quarterbacks (Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell): 38%" -- "maryjanewatson" on a Bucs board (he also shows his complete analysis)

"I did a study several years back on precisely this, but the problem is in determining your criteria for busts (particularly for non-skill positions). For my own part, I found that QBs had by far the highest bust rate in the first round, while offensive linemen tended to be the safest bet." -- J.D. Bolick in a p-f-r blog comment

 

[comfortably numb]

The jury is still out on: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler.

True that the body of work isn't huge for most of these guys, but I'd say Rivers, Big Ben, Leinart, Cutler, and Young are all pretty safe from bust territory.

I agree with you on the 1st part.on the 2nd; you can honestly say that they are "pretty safe" from bust territory after 1 year???Anyone one of these guys (excluding Ben) could still very easily become busts.

I think the fact that Young, Leinart, and Cutler all got on the field year 1 and performed well (not simply "good enough") says a lot. Rivers is beyond year one, but it may as well have been his first year, and he played well, too. I hear your point that one year does not make a career. That being said, how many 1st round picks came in so soon, played well (and not just for a game or two), then crashed?

Yes, that was my point, cause in 3 years, these guys could very well be out of the league from lack of production, and considereed busts.I just thought to say they were safe after 1 year, actually the rookies from last year didn't even play in all 16 games.On your last question, I can't think of any of the top of my head, that went south after a prductive year 1 (aside from injury ie Robert Edwards)If I think of any I will edit.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think there are many, MANY reasons to be skeptical of this type of analysis. Ignoring the difficult task of classifying who is a bust and who isn't, there are several other potential pitfalls. Let's start with one frequently left out of the analysis:

Let's say WRs bust the most in the first round, to the tune of 60% busts. And non-WRs bust at around 40% busts (I'm making these numbers up). That doesn't mean we automatically bump down our projected first round receivers by X. What if second-through-seventh round WRs bust 90% of the time, and non-WRs bust 60% of the time? And if free agent WRs bust 50% of the time, and free agent non-WRs bust 25% of the time? If that was the case, I'd argue that drafting a WR in the first round is a good idea. Even though WRs bust more often than non-WRs when taken in the first round, first round WRs have a relative advantage to other first round position players.

(I made up the non-first round pick and FA player bust percentages as well. But that doesn't mean they're inaccurate, or that first round receivers don't have a relative advantage. I have no idea if they do or don't. But any analysis that doesn't consider this is fundamentally flawed.)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

If Big Ben and Philip Rivers are hit by a bus tomorrow, they are still safe from being busts. Big Ben won a Super Bowl. Rivers went 14-2 and was invited to the Pro Bowl.

 

[Bruno2]

I think there are many, MANY reasons to be skeptical of this type of analysis. Ignoring the difficult task of classifying who is a bust and who isn't, there are several other potential pitfalls. Let's start with one frequently left out of the analysis:Let's say WRs bust the most in the first round, to the tune of 60% busts. And non-WRs bust at around 40% busts (I'm making these numbers up). That doesn't mean we automatically bump down our projected first round receivers by X. What if second-through-seventh round WRs bust 90% of the time, and non-WRs bust 60% of the time? And if free agent WRs bust 50% of the time, and free agent non-WRs bust 25% of the time? If that was the case, I'd argue that drafting a WR in the first round is a good idea. Even though WRs bust more often than non-WRs when taken in the first round, first round WRs have a relative advantage to other first round position players.(I made up the non-first round pick and FA player bust percentages as well. But that doesn't mean they're inaccurate, or that first round receivers don't have a relative advantage. I have no idea if they do or don't. But any analysis that doesn't consider this is fundamentally flawed.)

Absolutely Chase, to really come to any concise conclusions on this topic it would take more than just looking back at past drafts and just going down the list, Bust...Star....Star....Bust ....Bust. You would have scrutinize every player's individual situation, his production, poor coaching, poor front office moves etc. To really lable a player a bust, or success relaitve to his draft position.

 

[stevegamer]

Another issue is that some of these guys left their original team via trade, etc.By Bruno2's definiton, both of the following players are busts:Eli ManningPhillip RiversAs soon as they were traded for each other, they BOTH became busts, because the original drafting team didn't get production.Yet, if the picks were traded before the draft - like in the Vick deal - they wouldn't be busts.By this definition, Clinton Portis would be abust, if he had been picked in round 1, because he played just 2 years for the Broncos, before being traded.I think any players who were traded should be evaluated on their career, not necessarily whether the original drafting team made a good decision on their talents or not.

Bruno2 already said the jury was still out on Rivers and Manning, so that means he didn't include them in the 'bust' category. So those two guys aren't skewing the stats.Under your definition, players should be evaluated on their careers, but one can punch holes i that definition as well. If a guy busts out with his team, and puts it together with someone else, you can't call that a bust, or a 'failed pick'?I don't care if RW McQuarters put together a solid career, that was a bust of a 1st rounder. So was Stallworth. He was traded for a 4th and a bag of peanuts 4 years later.

What I was specifically talking about is the fact that they were traded for each other. Once the player's traded without playing significantly for the original team, he's tagged - and those guys got traded on draft day. So does the methodology tag them as "busts", or do pre-season trades mean a guy is considered drafted by another team? I think it HAS to move them as counting for another team in such a scenario.I also think guys who wash out as injured are different than a player who just isn't good enough.

 

[Kit Fisto]

19951.04 Brian Westbrook-WasShould be Michael "I kicked Stephen Davis' butt" Westbrook.

hate to hi jack this thread but I cringe evertime I heard that last shot he gave him. OUCH!!!

Link?

 

[prymetyme25]

19951.04 Brian Westbrook-WasShould be Michael "I kicked Stephen Davis' butt" Westbrook.

hate to hi jack this thread but I cringe evertime I heard that last shot he gave him. OUCH!!!

Link?

pretty sure you could look on you tube under stephen davis and M. westbrook fight in practice.

 

[BigRed]

For these purposes my definition of "bust" is a player drafted by a team in the 1st round that does not live up to expectations by the team that drafted them. Ex. Cut from the team after a year or two, never becomes a starter (career backup), career cut short by injury, player has a successful career with another team that did NOT draft them (Simeon Rice, Thomas Jones).

Good idea, bad criteria IMO. eg I wouldn't include injuries (unless maybe they were known for it) or success w/another team.

 

[SSOG]

Ron Wolf once said that more mistakes have been made in the first round on WRs than on any other position. Smart man, that Ron Wolf.

I think there are many, MANY reasons to be skeptical of this type of analysis. Ignoring the difficult task of classifying who is a bust and who isn't, there are several other potential pitfalls. Let's start with one frequently left out of the analysis:Let's say WRs bust the most in the first round, to the tune of 60% busts. And non-WRs bust at around 40% busts (I'm making these numbers up). That doesn't mean we automatically bump down our projected first round receivers by X. What if second-through-seventh round WRs bust 90% of the time, and non-WRs bust 60% of the time? And if free agent WRs bust 50% of the time, and free agent non-WRs bust 25% of the time? If that was the case, I'd argue that drafting a WR in the first round is a good idea. Even though WRs bust more often than non-WRs when taken in the first round, first round WRs have a relative advantage to other first round position players.(I made up the non-first round pick and FA player bust percentages as well. But that doesn't mean they're inaccurate, or that first round receivers don't have a relative advantage. I have no idea if they do or don't. But any analysis that doesn't consider this is fundamentally flawed.)

Another pitfall- what's the point of a risk/reward analysis that only looks at risks, ignoring rewards? Let's say that 75% of WRs "bust", but the 25% that don't all go on to become HoFers. Meanwhile, only 40% of DEs bust, but the other 60% all become marginal starters, never making more than a single pro bowl in their career. I'd much rather draft 4 WRs in the first round than 4 DEs in the first round. Another factor is career length. If a "solid starter" at WR plays for 10 years, and a "solid starter" at RB plays for 4 years, then there's a lot more reward to drafting a "solid starter" at WR than RB, which should more than offset any extra risk involved with the pick.Another type of analysis involves salary cap. Let's say that 60% of QBs bust, and 40% of safeties bust, and you can get yourself an average QB in FA for $8 mil a year and an average Safety for $2 mil a year. Let's also say that, due to slotting, moneys spent in the draft are a function of draft slot rather than the player's position. In that case, let's say you have a draft pick that corresponds to an $8 million a year salary, and you have a need for a QB and a Safety (one of which you'll get in the draft, and one in free agency). I'd much rather draft the QB and get a $2 million safety (total outlay- $10 million) than draft a Safety and get an $8 million QB (total outlay- $16 million), because even if the QB is more likely to bust, at least his salary is commensurate to what you have budgeted for his position, so he won't bust *AND* screw up your financial situation.There are so many facets to any analysis regarding the draft that it's impossible to encompass them all in a single study/report/what-have-you. Generally, I operate under the "NFL GMs know what they're doing" mindset. The NFL is an EXTREMELY competitive industry, and competition breeds efficiency. While there are some GMs who are obviously exceptions (Matt Millen), in general, competition has produced a group of 32 individuals who are probably the best-suited to do what they do in the entire world. Outside of Millen, the weak are generally culled out and replaced with others who are stronger, and inefficient strategies are discarded while dominant strategies are adopted (leading to the famous saying that the NFL is a "copy-cat league").What does this mean? It means that, by and large, if the GMs say a guy is rated as a first rounder, then that guy is deserving of that rating, regardless of any historical bust rate at his position.

 

[Traders2001]

If Big Ben and Philip Rivers are hit by a bus tomorrow, they are still safe from being busts. Big Ben won a Super Bowl. Rivers went 14-2 and was invited to the Pro Bowl.

Big Ben played on a team that won the super bowl he actually could have lost it the way he played in that game .Big Ben is a bust and is a bad QB.

 

[Couch Potato]

If Big Ben and Philip Rivers are hit by a bus tomorrow, they are still safe from being busts. Big Ben won a Super Bowl. Rivers went 14-2 and was invited to the Pro Bowl.

Big Ben played on a team that won the super bowl he actually could have lost it the way he played in that game .Big Ben is a bust and is a bad QB.

Jeez, don't you ever get tired of polluting this board with your idiotic posts? I sure get tired of reading them.

 

[BigRed]

Ok Ok, We've established that the "bust" word should only be used for the players who completely flamed out like, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Rashaan Salaam, Lawrence Phillips and Mike Mamula. The whole point I was trying to make was that drafting a QB in the 1st round is not a huge risk when compared to the other positions.

Yes it is because QB more than any other position is so important to the team's success. Keeping that, plus how they get a lot more $ on average than other positions and that the top picked ones tend to either be really good or pathetic......it isn't hard to see that you can recover from a lame pick at other positions easier than a lame QB pick. QBs are therefore riskier.

 

[Bruno2]

Lets now discuss the RBs.....

Again, I realize the term "bust" may be too harsh for some of the players listed. Think of it more as not panning out, or not fullfilling expectations relative to where the particular player was drafted. Also I considered a player like Thomas Jones a "bust", even though he's gone on to have a solid career, he didn't play well for the team that drafted him. Injuries...I realize they are an uncontrollable aspect to the game and it may not be the players' fault he was injured, but because he was injured, in my mind it has to be considered a busted pick, ie. Ki-Jana Carter, Robert Edwards.

RBs-61% "bust" rate

1995

1 Ki-Jana Carter-Cin (MISS) Injuries

17 Tyrone Wheatley-NYG (MISS) later success with Oak

18 Napoleon Kaufman-Oak (HIT)

19 James Stewart-Jac (MISS) close call, never had a 1000yd season with Jac but did have 13tds in '99.

21 Rashaan Salaam-Chi (MISS)

1996

6 Lawrence Phillips-StL (MISS)

8 Tim Biakabutuka-Car (MISS) injuries

14 Eddie George-Hou/Ten (HIT)

1997

12 Warrick Dunn-TB (HIT)

23 Antowain Smith-Buf (MISS) borderline call, only had one 1000yd season with Buf

1998

5 Curtis Enis-Chi (MISS)

9 Fred Taylor-Jac (HIT)

18 Robert Edwards-NE (MISS) Would have been a hit if it weren't for the freak injury.

29 John Avery-Mia (MISS)

1999

4 Edgerrin James-Ind (HIT)

5 Ricky Williams-NO (MISS) For what the Saints gave up to get him, I call it a miss.

2000

5 Jamal Lewis-Bal (HIT)

7 Thomas Jones-Ari (MISS) If he stayed in AZ, it would be a good pick.

11 Ron Dayne-NYG (MISS)

19 Shaun Alexander-Sea (HIT)

31 Trung Canidate-StL (MISS)

2001

5 LaDainian Tomlinson-SD (HIT)

23 Deuce McAllister-NO (HIT)

27 Michael Bennett-Min (MISS)

2002

16 William Green-Cle (MISS)

18 TJ Duckett-Atl (MISS)

2003

23 Willis McGahee-Buf (HIT) Even though he was in Buf for 3 yrs, he was solid on some bad teams.

27 Larry Johnson-KC (HIT) Broke the Penn St. RB curse.

2004

24 Steven Jackson-StL (HIT)

26 Chris Perry-Cin (MISS) Not ready to completely write him off yet b/c of injuries, at the moment he's MISS

Jury is still out on these RBs

Kevin Jones-Det

Ronnie Brown-Mia

Cerdic Benson-Chi

Carnell Williams-TB

Reggie Bush-NO

Laurence Maroney-NE

DeAngelo Williams-Car

Joseph Addai-Ind

 

[massraider]

Ok Ok, We've established that the "bust" word should only be used for the players who completely flamed out like, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Rashaan Salaam, Lawrence Phillips and Mike Mamula. The whole point I was trying to make was that drafting a QB in the 1st round is not a huge risk when compared to the other positions.

Yes it is because QB more than any other position is so important to the team's success. Keeping that, plus how they get a lot more $ on average than other positions and that the top picked ones tend to either be really good or pathetic......it isn't hard to see that you can recover from a lame pick at other positions easier than a lame QB pick. QBs are therefore riskier.

Are those the only factors in determining whether or not a QB is a good 1st round risk?I don't think so.It's riskier because they are so important to the team, that's true.They aren't riskier because more 1st rounder bust tho, are they? It is true that if you whiff on a 1st round QB, it sets the team back. But what happens when you hit on a 1st round QB? Your team is instantly better, we see that every time. So doesn't that have to be factored in as well?And doesn't it have to be factored in that finding a stud QB after the first round is more difficult than most other positions? If you make a list of great players found at later rounds, QB is going to be bringing up the rear. Tom Brady in the 6th, hooray! That was several years ago now, and I haven't seen that lightning strike again.Meantime, if you want to look at WR, OT, or RB, you don't have to go far to find studs taken later. Don't we have to factor that in as well?

 

[Snotbubbles]

Bruno--It looks like you came up with a theory that QBs "bust" at a lower rate than other positions and are now skewing what a "bust" is to prove your theory. You are harsh on what a "hit" is for RBs yet are lenient for what a "hit" is for QB (see Rex Grossman)For example--You say:

18 Napoleon Kaufman-Oak (HIT)

If he's a hit, then so are Antowain Smith, James Stewart, Thomas Jones, Tyrone Wheatley and Michael Bennett.Then again here:

5 Ricky Williams-NO (MISS) For what the Saints gave up to get him, I call it a miss.2000

Ricky Williams was not a bust. Did he live up to the hype that was surrounding him, probably not for NO, but he was a a top back for MIA.

 

[crimsonrebel]

One player doesnt make a team. Any offensive skill player going to a team with a poor O line may play subpar, but if he falls into the bust category, it isnt necessarily his fault. Without blocking, QB's, RB's and WR's are just plain going to underperform. Yes, there are rare exceptions like LT2, but they are few and far between. Veteran players are no exception. Look at Garcia with the Lions vs Garcia with the Eagles.

 

[Kit Fisto]

19951.04 Brian Westbrook-WasShould be Michael "I kicked Stephen Davis' butt" Westbrook.

hate to hi jack this thread but I cringe evertime I heard that last shot he gave him. OUCH!!!

Link?

pretty sure you could look on you tube under stephen davis and M. westbrook fight in practice.

Nothing.

 

[Bruno2]

Bruno--It looks like you came up with a theory that QBs "bust" at a lower rate than other positions and are now skewing what a "bust" is to prove your theory. You are harsh on what a "hit" is for RBs yet are lenient for what a "hit" is for QB (see Rex Grossman)For example--You say:

18 Napoleon Kaufman-Oak (HIT)

If he's a hit, then so are Antowain Smith, James Stewart, Thomas Jones, Tyrone Wheatley and Michael Bennett.Then again here:

5 Ricky Williams-NO (MISS) For what the Saints gave up to get him, I call it a miss.2000

Ricky Williams was not a bust. Did he live up to the hype that was surrounding him, probably not for NO, but he was a a top back for MIA.

Snotbubbles,Thanks for the response, I understand what your saying, there are definitely flaws in my reasoning, they are just my opinions, no serious research. I was looking to spark some discussion on the topic on a lazy Sunday while the wife was out and I was waiting in between picks in the PDSL draft. I'm looking at it this way, if you were the Cards GM when you drafted Thomas Jones, would you consider him a wasted pick because he did not produce when he was on your team? I personally don't think Jones was worth the #7 overall pick, if he goes somewhere else and produces. While Jones may be 1st round talent, he didn't show it before the Cards let him go elsewhere. Wether its the teams fault (most likely we're talking about the Cardinals) or the players. The fact of the matter, guys like Wheatley, Jones and Williams did not live up to their draft status on the teams they were drafted by IMO.

 

[Wildman]

I believe the WR bust rate is high for two basic reasons. One, it is one of the more difficult positions to evaluate and two, after quarterback it is the most difficult position to transition from college to pro.

For starters, there is an over-emphasis on the physical measurements of a player. 40-yard time is the commonly overrated measurement, but so is height/weight.

What's underrated? Catching the football with good hands technique; catching the ball with this technique in tight coverage; maintaining possession of the ball after heavy contract from a safety (especially when the receiver sees or anticipates a huge hit); and precise route running.

A Robert Meachem very well may turn out to be an excellent NFL receiver, but I'm not sold on him because he doesnt' perform any of the underrated categories with consistency. I heard over and over that Meachem caught the ball with his hands in workouts and the combine, but I saw one of his workouts and it appeared he had to really concentrate to make these catches. On film, he dropped several balls when attempting to catch passes with his hands first. There's a difference when the pads come on and players face contact.

On the other hand, Steve Smith and Jason Hill are not only faster than the perceptions of so many (not sure where they got these ideas anyhow), but they are also excellent pass catchers and pretty good route runners. I'd rather have these two than Meachem, Rice, or Jarrett.

In comparison to first round picks of their respective draft classes, Steve Smith of Carolina was deemed too small...Hines Ward too slow...Terrell Owens? Too slow...Marques Colston? Too slow/small school...Bernard Berrian--too small/too slight of frame...

I think there's some fallacy among the NFL that you can teach great athletes to catch the football under difficult conditions and run good routes if you are 6-2+ and 210+ plus with 4.5 speed...(sometimes slower if you came from a big-time PAC 10 school--Reggie Williams/Mike Williams anyone)...

Football skills will always mean more than physical skills when comparing athletes where there is such a reasonably small margin of difference in athleticism....Give me a 4.5 receiver with great hands, route running, and concentration over a 4.3 receiver with 20 more pounds and 2 additional inches of height that can't catch the ball with his hands, run more routes than streaks/screens/or crossing routes, or hold onto the ball after hit...