Possible Flynn trade? (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

To trade Flynn and get a higher value then the compensentory pick the Pack would have to first sign him before they could trade him. Flynn would not agree to a contract, he would reasonably demand to get more than what he could reasonably expect on the open market to get a deal done. <snip>The team making the deal get the player they want at a fair or better than fair market price before the draft.<snip>That is why I feel if any deal is made before Flynn hits the open market he will have gotten more than what he would reasonably expect on the open market.

Suppose Flynn expects to get $X on the open market. It seems like your first and third statements above imply that he could get more than that from the Packers, but your second statement above implies that he'd get, if anything, less than that from the Packers.If Flynn signs with the Packers for "more than what he could reasonably expect on the open market," then in what sense would the team that trades for him be getting him "at a fair or better than fair market price"?

If they signed him the gauranteed portion goes on the Pack's books. The gauranteed portion is spread out over the life of the contract. So if a team offers a player a $12 million signing bonus over six years they have $2 million gauranteed on their books per year over the life of the contract even if they end up cutting the player the remainder is listed as dead weight.

That's not exactly right, but I'm not sure it matters for purposes of this discussion. Only money that the Packers actually pay Flynn would count against their cap. So if they franchise-and-trade him before the season, they take no cap hit. (And if they give him a signing bonus and then cut him, the bonus is not prorated evenly over the life of the contract; whatever hasn't already been counted is immediately counted in the year that he's cut.)

 

[sharptongued1]

Uh... no. Pack won't franchise him. Period. Can't pay a back-up franchise money.

People are finding this situation really confusing, I don't know why.They will not pay a back-up franchise money. They will tag him, the money will go on the "books," but he will get traded before he's paid. Just like Cassel was.

Period.

Seriously, the Packers have a tough choice. If they tag Flynn and somehow are not able to trade him, they're screwed. By tagging him, they give him a lot of leverage in the salary negotiations that would take place with CLE or MIA or whoever because he can demand he be paid big money, or he'll just stay on the franchise contract and do this all again next season. CLE or MIA probably wouldn't risk trading for him on a one year deal, leaving GB potentially stuck with the contract. But I doubt that happens - Cassel was traded on the franchise contract and signed to a long-term deal after the trade. The same could happen with Flynn.

I'm not sure if the Packers will take that chance, they may decide not to and just let him walk, but tagging him does not mean that they're paying him the money, I don't get why that is confusing.

Also the "sign and trade" thing is absurd. Flynn has no reason to do that. None. If the Packers can sign him to a contract and then trade him, that means Flynn could get that contract as a free agent, PLUS the option of trying to get more by holding an auction between two or more teams that could then sign him without giving up any picks. So, please, Bracie, just stop. Thanks.

All of this is correct. To answer your point in the 2nd paragraph, the franchise tag would only be used once the Pack determines they are not taking a chance. In other words, a behind closed doors deal with the trade partner, and the agreement of Flynn and his agent, already have to be in place before they would tag him. None of this can be officially done yet of course but in reality that's what will happen before tagging. No way they tag him and then just hope.

Agree with both posts.I get the "hopefulness" of both Pack fans and Browns fans, and trying to shoehorn some logic into the idea of a sign and trade, and I will concede it is possible, I just don't see how it makes much sense. Flynn is going to listen to his agent. And no agent with Flynn as a free agent is going to tell his client to do anything other than hit the open market as the only young, quality QB on the free agent market. I'd be shocked if Flynn already knows where he wants to go, but I am sure he and his people know who wants to talk to him once FA starts. They already know who's interested.

The other thing I think about is that if the Pack was to try a sign and trade, if the negotiations between CLE and Flynn took a while, or bogged down, that's $14 mill, or whatever it is, is tied up, and the Pack might miss out on the early free agent wave.

When is the last time the Packers were players in FA in the early wave. I cant remember this with Thompson at the head of things. Reggie White maybe ?

I'm thinking Joe Johnson.

Charles Woodson

Charles Woodson wasn't signed early in the free agent period.

He was a big time FA signing, that was my point.

That's great. It also had zero to do with Crippler's question.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Suppose Flynn expects to get $X on the open market. It seems like your first and third statements above imply that he could get more than that from the Packers, but your second statement above implies that he'd get, if anything, less than that from the Packers.If Flynn signs with the Packers for "more than what he could reasonably expect on the open market," then in what sense would the team that trades for him be getting him "at a fair or better than fair market price"?

Flynn's expectations are his expectations. The market is set by other factors than Flynn's expectations. The market right now or what it may be in the future for Flynn if he hits the open market will be determined by other factors than his expectations. Right now his interest has all of the possible teams for his services in play because they have yet to fill their dance card. Teams will begin to move on QBs so things will change with his market. Bottom line. Flynn might expect his position will strengthen if hits the open market but the market changes by the day. My opinion is that once teams are taken out of the Flynn market his expectations will be higher than what the market will be willing to pay. That is how I see it at least.

 

[cvnpoka]

I thought it was a very thorough post regarding the situation.

he makes poor assumptions about the compensatory picks. its very wrong to assume they will get a third as it is dependent on their net gains in free agency. for instance, last yr the bengals did not receive a 3rd despite joseph signing a huge deal and playing well bc they picked up so many other fas.

 

[biju]

Suppose Flynn expects to get $X on the open market. It seems like your first and third statements above imply that he could get more than that from the Packers, but your second statement above implies that he'd get, if anything, less than that from the Packers.If Flynn signs with the Packers for "more than what he could reasonably expect on the open market," then in what sense would the team that trades for him be getting him "at a fair or better than fair market price"?

Flynn's expectations are his expectations. The market is set by other factors than Flynn's expectations. The market right now or what it may be in the future for Flynn if he hits the open market will be determined by other factors than his expectations. Right now his interest has all of the possible teams for his services in play because they have yet to fill their dance card. Teams will begin to move on QBs so things will change with his market. Bottom line. Flynn might expect his position will strengthen if hits the open market but the market changes by the day. My opinion is that once teams are taken out of the Flynn market his expectations will be higher than what the market will be willing to pay. That is how I see it at least.

I think 4 pages in we understand that you're working the "supply vs. demand" angle, but there is a third factor: the player wanting to get paid the most for his services. If the Packers can sign him to a cheap, incentive-laden contract why in the world wouldn't they simply keep him as insurance as a cheap backup to Aaron Rodgers? I think that's the point you keep missing because that would be the risk of Flynn signing such a deal, not just with the Packers but with any team that wants a top-tier backup on their team for a 2nd rounder.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I thought it was a very thorough post regarding the situation.

he makes poor assumptions about the compensatory picks. its very wrong to assume they will get a third as it is dependent on their net gains in free agency. for instance, last yr the bengals did not receive a 3rd despite joseph signing a huge deal and playing well bc they picked up so many other fas.

The Packers rarely do anything in Free Agency and will probably lose Scott Wells along with Matt Flynn. Could very well be a 3rd and 5th coming their way next draft.

 

[massraider]

Bottom line. Flynn might expect his position will strengthen if hits the open market but the market changes by the day. My opinion is that once teams are taken out of the Flynn market his expectations will be higher than what the market will be willing to pay. That is how I see it at least.

Still doesn't make any sense that he somehow gets more money by letting the Pack franchise him, and then letting the Pack negotiate a trade. Flynn still would have to agree with said team for a new deal. Flynn would only have the ability to negotiate with that one team. As an unrestricted free agent, he could negotiate with the Browns/Fins/Skins simultaneously. None of those teams are going to make any other moves until the Flynn thing is settles, assuming they believe that Flynn is the goods. If the Fins make a move for Manning before Flynn signs somewhere, they weren't real players for Flynn anyway, and that wouldn't affect his market. Two teams make a market, that's all you need. So if the Fins and Browns are in on Flynn, that's all he needs for a bidding war. The concept of a bunch of teams bailing out on Flynn before he gets a chance to cash in is pretty thin, IMO. Has that sort of thing ever happened before, ever?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Bottom line.

Flynn might expect his position will strengthen if hits the open market but the market changes by the day. My opinion is that once teams are taken out of the Flynn market his expectations will be higher than what the market will be willing to pay. That is how I see it at least.

Still doesn't make any sense that he somehow gets more money by letting the Pack franchise him, and then letting the Pack negotiate a trade. Flynn still would have to agree with said team for a new deal. Flynn would only have the ability to negotiate with that one team. As an unrestricted free agent, he could negotiate with the Browns/Fins/Skins simultaneously. None of those teams are going to make any other moves until the Flynn thing is settles, assuming they believe that Flynn is the goods. If the Fins make a move for Manning before Flynn signs somewhere, they weren't real players for Flynn anyway, and that wouldn't affect his market. Two teams make a market, that's all you need. So if the Fins and Browns are in on Flynn, that's all he needs for a bidding war.

The concept of a bunch of teams bailing out on Flynn before he gets a chance to cash in is pretty thin, IMO. Has that sort of thing ever happened before, ever?

Not in a league where more often than not, your QB defines your ability to compete.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think 4 pages in we understand that you're working the "supply vs. demand" angle, but there is a third factor: the player wanting to get paid the most for his services. If the Packers can sign him to a cheap, incentive-laden contract why in the world wouldn't they simply keep him as insurance as a cheap backup to Aaron Rodgers? I think that's the point you keep missing because that would be the risk of Flynn signing such a deal, not just with the Packers but with any team that wants a top-tier backup on their team for a 2nd rounder.

Cheap contrct? You have the 'incentive' part correct, the incentive would be gotten from the player by being on a roster so it would be easy to attain just by the player being on a roster, basically making it a gauranteed portion of his earnings. Flynn has been in the league four years as a backup, his incentive is to start and be paid. If you are saying the Pack want to keep him and not pay him and they won't start him then how is Flynn's incentive met?I'm not sure where you got that from anything in this thread.I've made it clear that the Pack has only one option to get anything more than a compensentory pick is to sign and then trade Flynn. A signing bonus means they pay out the signing bonus. They take a signing bonus cap hit. They would want to make the signing bonus small enough to make a deal work for them. Flynn wants the highest signing bonus possible, he can reach a similiar number with roster bonuses which is not a signing bonus so the Pack could take a cap hit they could afford by putting in signing bonus that they could afford and meet the rest with roster bonues.Typically teams pay out a large signing bonus and want the player to sign a long term contract so they can amortize that cap hit over the length of a long contract. That is why roster bonuses are put in at strategic times depending on each player's expected value. When a roster bonus is paid out that entire roster bonus is put on the team's books that season so a Flynn deal has options of a small enough sighning bonus to make it work for GB and large enough ROSTER bonuses early in the contract to assure Flynn would get his money up front but where any team signing him could take the cap hit when those bonuses would be paid out.

 

[stbugs]

I think 4 pages in we understand that you're working the "supply vs. demand" angle, but there is a third factor: the player wanting to get paid the most for his services. If the Packers can sign him to a cheap, incentive-laden contract why in the world wouldn't they simply keep him as insurance as a cheap backup to Aaron Rodgers? I think that's the point you keep missing because that would be the risk of Flynn signing such a deal, not just with the Packers but with any team that wants a top-tier backup on their team for a 2nd rounder.

Cheap contrct? You have the 'incentive' part correct, the incentive would be gotten from the player by being on a roster so it would be easy to attain just by the player being on a roster, basically making it a gauranteed portion of his earnings. Flynn has been in the league four years as a backup, his incentive is to start and be paid. If you are saying the Pack want to keep him and not pay him and they won't start him then how is Flynn's incentive met?I'm not sure where you got that from anything in this thread.I've made it clear that the Pack has only one option to get anything more than a compensentory pick is to sign and then trade Flynn. A signing bonus means they pay out the signing bonus. They take a signing bonus cap hit. They would want to make the signing bonus small enough to make a deal work for them. Flynn wants the highest signing bonus possible, he can reach a similiar number with roster bonuses which is not a signing bonus so the Pack could take a cap hit they could afford by putting in signing bonus that they could afford and meet the rest with roster bonues.Typically teams pay out a large signing bonus and want the player to sign a long term contract so they can amortize that cap hit over the length of a long contract. That is why roster bonuses are put in at strategic times depending on each player's expected value. When a roster bonus is paid out that entire roster bonus is put on the team's books that season so a Flynn deal has options of a small enough sighning bonus to make it work for GB and large enough ROSTER bonuses early in the contract to assure Flynn would get his money up front but where any team signing him could take the cap hit when those bonuses would be paid out.

I am pretty sure many people have still wondered about the statements where the Packers could somehow sign a better deal for a team that trades for him than he would get on the open market. The sign and trade doesn't make sense in any way to me.From Flynn's side: Flynn's contract value should be higher if he waits and gets multiple teams bidding on him, so why would he ever agree to a sign and trade. If he knows the Packers won't franchise him (seems likely they won't), then what "incentive" does Flynn have to not hit the open market. Pretty sure his agent is telling him to hit the open market.From Other Team's side: If they want Flynn and are willing to pay him market value, why not wait till the open market? The compensatory pick isn't theirs so they lose nothing. Why give GB a pick? I can see trying to get exclusive privileges to sign Flynn, but couldn't they just up their offer a few bucks on the open market and save the pick?All the Packers fans throwing out the sign and trade scenarios just haven't made a compelling argument in any way to do a sign and trade, which seems to only benefit the Packers.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I am pretty sure many people have still wondered about the statements where the Packers could somehow sign a better deal for a team that trades for him than he would get on the open market. The sign and trade doesn't make sense in any way to me.From Flynn's side: Flynn's contract value should be higher if he waits and gets multiple teams bidding on him, so why would he ever agree to a sign and trade. If he knows the Packers won't franchise him (seems likely they won't), then what "incentive" does Flynn have to not hit the open market. Pretty sure his agent is telling him to hit the open market.From Other Team's side: If they want Flynn and are willing to pay him market value, why not wait till the open market? The compensatory pick isn't theirs so they lose nothing. Why give GB a pick? I can see trying to get exclusive privileges to sign Flynn, but couldn't they just up their offer a few bucks on the open market and save the pick?All the Packers fans throwing out the sign and trade scenarios just haven't made a compelling argument in any way to do a sign and trade, which seems to only benefit the Packers.

You feel their is a large market for teams who would pay Flynn and I don't.Flynn doesn't possess tremendous physical skills that transfer to any system, he is a WCO QB. My opinion is that Flynn's original market is limited to start with. I see his best option to get paid is on a team who values WCO QB skills. I also don't see that original market as static, it will change as teams fill their QB needs. Right now free agency hasn't started and we are two months away from the draft so it appears things are stable so at this time it looks like all of the original WCO teams in need of a QB are in the Flynn sweepstakes. If a team is seriously looking to make a deal with the Pack and Flynn rejects the deal it makes sense that when Flynn hits the open market that they would pull out of any bidding before it begins to seek other alternatives. I don't know how you see it or how things will eventually turn out but that is my opinion on the original Flynn market and how it will change.

 

[sho nuff]

I am pretty sure many people have still wondered about the statements where the Packers could somehow sign a better deal for a team that trades for him than he would get on the open market. The sign and trade doesn't make sense in any way to me.From Flynn's side: Flynn's contract value should be higher if he waits and gets multiple teams bidding on him, so why would he ever agree to a sign and trade. If he knows the Packers won't franchise him (seems likely they won't), then what "incentive" does Flynn have to not hit the open market. Pretty sure his agent is telling him to hit the open market.From Other Team's side: If they want Flynn and are willing to pay him market value, why not wait till the open market? The compensatory pick isn't theirs so they lose nothing. Why give GB a pick? I can see trying to get exclusive privileges to sign Flynn, but couldn't they just up their offer a few bucks on the open market and save the pick?All the Packers fans throwing out the sign and trade scenarios just haven't made a compelling argument in any way to do a sign and trade, which seems to only benefit the Packers.

You feel their is a large market for teams who would pay Flynn and I don't.Flynn doesn't possess tremendous physical skills that transfer to any system, he is a WCO QB. My opinion is that Flynn's original market is limited to start with. I see his best option to get paid is on a team who values WCO QB skills. I also don't see that original market as static, it will change as teams fill their QB needs. Right now free agency hasn't started and we are two months away from the draft so it appears things are stable so at this time it looks like all of the original WCO teams in need of a QB are in the Flynn sweepstakes. If a team is seriously looking to make a deal with the Pack and Flynn rejects the deal it makes sense that when Flynn hits the open market that they would pull out of any bidding before it begins to seek other alternatives. I don't know how you see it or how things will eventually turn out but that is my opinion on the original Flynn market and how it will change.

I think you overplay the WCO talk in this.BTW...what system is it that does not like a QB to make quick decisions and show a strong arm with ok mobility?

 

[stbugs]

I am pretty sure many people have still wondered about the statements where the Packers could somehow sign a better deal for a team that trades for him than he would get on the open market. The sign and trade doesn't make sense in any way to me.From Flynn's side: Flynn's contract value should be higher if he waits and gets multiple teams bidding on him, so why would he ever agree to a sign and trade. If he knows the Packers won't franchise him (seems likely they won't), then what "incentive" does Flynn have to not hit the open market. Pretty sure his agent is telling him to hit the open market.From Other Team's side: If they want Flynn and are willing to pay him market value, why not wait till the open market? The compensatory pick isn't theirs so they lose nothing. Why give GB a pick? I can see trying to get exclusive privileges to sign Flynn, but couldn't they just up their offer a few bucks on the open market and save the pick?All the Packers fans throwing out the sign and trade scenarios just haven't made a compelling argument in any way to do a sign and trade, which seems to only benefit the Packers.

You feel their is a large market for teams who would pay Flynn and I don't.Flynn doesn't possess tremendous physical skills that transfer to any system, he is a WCO QB. My opinion is that Flynn's original market is limited to start with. I see his best option to get paid is on a team who values WCO QB skills. I also don't see that original market as static, it will change as teams fill their QB needs. Right now free agency hasn't started and we are two months away from the draft so it appears things are stable so at this time it looks like all of the original WCO teams in need of a QB are in the Flynn sweepstakes. If a team is seriously looking to make a deal with the Pack and Flynn rejects the deal it makes sense that when Flynn hits the open market that they would pull out of any bidding before it begins to seek other alternatives. I don't know how you see it or how things will eventually turn out but that is my opinion on the original Flynn market and how it will change.

I think you overplay the WCO talk in this.BTW...what system is it that does not like a QB to make quick decisions and show a strong arm with ok mobility?

The funny part is that if Flynn's market is limited, please tell us again why some team would be willing to give the Packers draft picks to not let him hit the open market? If Cleveland thinks they are the only team interested, why not wait until he hits the open market and pay him a cheap starting QB salary? I thought the sign and trade guys were trying to argue that there was so much demand that a team would part with a pick just so he wouldn't hit the open market. I am so confused now, does Flynn suck?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Guess teams just have to lay out some cash now and not have to worry about trading for Flynn.

Monday's franchise tag deadline came and went without free agent Matt Flynn being slapped with the mechanism by the Packers.Other notable free agents who were rumored as being considered for the tag but did not receive it include DE Mario Williams, OG Carl Nicks, WRs Vincent Jackson, Brandon Lloyd, Marques Colston, and Pierre Garcon, NT Sione Pouha, RBs Michael Bush and Peyton Hillis, and DT Jason Jones. Their clubs have until March 13 to work out contract terms, or they'll hit the free agent market.

 

[massraider]

Not a shocker.