Post Combine Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Zyphros]

Figured I would get this thing started. I have a tentative top20 that I'm willing to share. There are a few guys that I'm not sure if they belong in their spot yet that I want to re-watch and those are represented with a "®". Other than that I'm pretty confident in my list so far. 1 other note is I'm not a Devante Parker fan and I basically put him there out of respect for what he is considered (a top3 WR), but from watching him play I don't like that much. I like Agholor more than Parker.

Biggest difference in my rankings is they are all based on 2QB leagues so that's the biggest caveat. Anyway here they are:

1. Todd Gurley

2. Melvin Gordon

3. Marcus Mariotta

4. Amari Cooper

5. Kevin White

6. Jameis Winston

7. Jay Ajayi

8. Dorial Green-Beckham

9. Devante Parker ®

10. TJ Yeldon

11. Nelson Agholor

12. Tevin Coleman

13. Vince Mayle ®

14. Sammie Coates

15. Breshad Perriman ®

16. Duke Johnson

17. Maxx Williams

18. Jaelen Strong ®

19. Ameer Abdullah

20. Justin Hardy

A couple noteable guys I left off: Devin Funchess - I refuse to be the guy who drafts him so he's on my do not draft list and won't be in any of my rankings.

Feel free to post your own rankings

 

[joey]

 

[Run It Up]

Between the hundred prospect threads, outside of his individual player thread, I can't help but think that Strong is getting the short end.

Care to elaborate why you put him at WR7? Legitimately curious.

 

[Donnybrook]

13. Vince Mayle ®

Why so high on Mayle? Combine profile reminds me of Juron Criner. Criner was a fan favorite around here but he never lived up to expectations.

 

[Zyphros]

Between the hundred prospect threads, outside of his individual player thread, I can't help but think that Strong is getting the short end.

Care to elaborate why you put him at WR7? Legitimately curious.

I think he is almost too much of a project. Extremely raw talent, bailed his QB out a bunch but here were my notes when I watched him play. Rounded routes, not even close to crisp, decent blocker though, slow feet, not very quick. He has a lot to learn and I would prefer to take a guy who at least has some of those attributes already even though Strong's ceiling may very well be higher than them. Very much like Vince Mayle.

13. Vince Mayle ®

Why so high on Mayle? Combine profile reminds me of Juron Criner. Criner was a fan favorite around here but he never lived up to expectations.

When i first watched him I saw him as a fluid runner with good hands, but I need to watch more of him in order to keep him that high.

 

[Casting Couch]

Figured I would get this thing started. I have a tentative top20 that I'm willing to share. There are a few guys that I'm not sure if they belong in their spot yet that I want to re-watch and those are represented with a "®". Other than that I'm pretty confident in my list so far. 1 other note is I'm not a Devante Parker fan and I basically put him there out of respect for what he is considered (a top3 WR), but from watching him play I don't like that much. I like Agholor more than Parker.

Biggest difference in my rankings is they are all based on 2QB leagues so that's the biggest caveat. Anyway here they are:

1. Todd Gurley

2. Melvin Gordon

3. Marcus Mariotta

4. Amari Cooper

5. Kevin White

6. Jameis Winston

7. Jay Ajayi

8. Dorial Green-Beckham

9. Devante Parker ®

10. TJ Yeldon

11. Nelson Agholor

12. Tevin Coleman

13. Vince Mayle ®

14. Sammie Coates

15. Breshad Perriman ®

16. Duke Johnson

17. Maxx Williams

18. Jaelen Strong ®

19. Ameer Abdullah

20. Justin Hardy

A couple noteable guys I left off: Devin Funchess - I refuse to be the guy who drafts him so he's on my do not draft list and won't be in any of my rankings.

Feel free to post your own rankings

Thoughts on Mike Davis ?

 

[Zyphros]

Thoughts on Mike Davis ?

Pre-combine he was in my top20 because he was a personal favorite of mine, then the combine happened and well he kind of plummeted. When it comes down to it there are guys I had in the same tier as Davis, that showed pretty well during the combine and backed up some of what I saw in watching them so I moved them up a bit. Jeremy Langford is a great example of that. In the end Davis is a tough runner who always falls forward but he may just end up being a JAG in the NFL.

Guess I put the topic up too early and nobody else has rankings yet ha

 

[Xue]

Agholor and Yeldon that high are crazy.

 

[Shutout]

Thoughts on Mike Davis ?

Pre-combine he was in my top20 because he was a personal favorite of mine, then the combine happened and well he kind of plummeted. When it comes down to it there are guys I had in the same tier as Davis, that showed pretty well during the combine and backed up some of what I saw in watching them so I moved them up a bit. Jeremy Langford is a great example of that. In the end Davis is a tough runner who always falls forward but he may just end up being a JAG in the NFL.

Guess I put the topic up too early and nobody else has rankings yet ha

If he was a top 20 pre-combine, I think you should give it another look.

One of the biggest mistakes I think people make in FF is getting caught up on the recent stuff and then suddenly disregarding all those things they saw over the course of 1-4 years that made you think the guy is a player.

Example: People went from loving Eddie Lacy to, by the time it was ff draft time, letting him slide and he showed us that all the things we loved in college were legit. .

Just my opinion.

 

[Casting Couch]

Thoughts on Mike Davis ?

Pre-combine he was in my top20 because he was a personal favorite of mine, then the combine happened and well he kind of plummeted. When it comes down to it there are guys I had in the same tier as Davis, that showed pretty well during the combine and backed up some of what I saw in watching them so I moved them up a bit. Jeremy Langford is a great example of that. In the end Davis is a tough runner who always falls forward but he may just end up being a JAG in the NFL.

Guess I put the topic up too early and nobody else has rankings yet ha

If he was a top 20 pre-combine, I think you should give it another look.

One of the biggest mistakes I think people make in FF is getting caught up on the recent stuff and then suddenly disregarding all those things they saw over the course of 1-4 years that made you think the guy is a player.

Example: People went from loving Eddie Lacy to, by the time it was ff draft time, letting him slide and he showed us that all the things we loved in college were legit. .

Just my opinion.

I'm not pimping Mike Davis by any means, but I agree with Shutout here.

 

[Zyphros]

Thoughts on Mike Davis ?

Pre-combine he was in my top20 because he was a personal favorite of mine, then the combine happened and well he kind of plummeted. When it comes down to it there are guys I had in the same tier as Davis, that showed pretty well during the combine and backed up some of what I saw in watching them so I moved them up a bit. Jeremy Langford is a great example of that. In the end Davis is a tough runner who always falls forward but he may just end up being a JAG in the NFL.

Guess I put the topic up too early and nobody else has rankings yet ha

If he was a top 20 pre-combine, I think you should give it another look.

One of the biggest mistakes I think people make in FF is getting caught up on the recent stuff and then suddenly disregarding all those things they saw over the course of 1-4 years that made you think the guy is a player.

Example: People went from loving Eddie Lacy to, by the time it was ff draft time, letting him slide and he showed us that all the things we loved in college were legit. .

Just my opinion.

Davis was #16 pre-combine so he wasn't far off from not being on my list to begin with. I don't think I'm making a mistake here because like I said, some guys I had in the same tier proved to be a better athlete, to go along with their production/skillset during the combine so why wouldn't you move those guys above him? These guys proved to be a better athlete in the underwear olympics than Davis so it makes no sense not to use that data and move them above. This is still pre-combine, and I'll tinker with it probably 200x before my actual draft.

Agholor and Yeldon that high are crazy.

Why? Agholor and Yeldon both have the skills that cannot be learned. They are ballers. They are smart players with a natural feel for the game. They both could use some weight loss/gain but the skills are there to be productive NFL players.

 

[Xue]

Thoughts on Mike Davis ?

Pre-combine he was in my top20 because he was a personal favorite of mine, then the combine happened and well he kind of plummeted. When it comes down to it there are guys I had in the same tier as Davis, that showed pretty well during the combine and backed up some of what I saw in watching them so I moved them up a bit. Jeremy Langford is a great example of that. In the end Davis is a tough runner who always falls forward but he may just end up being a JAG in the NFL.

Guess I put the topic up too early and nobody else has rankings yet ha

If he was a top 20 pre-combine, I think you should give it another look.

One of the biggest mistakes I think people make in FF is getting caught up on the recent stuff and then suddenly disregarding all those things they saw over the course of 1-4 years that made you think the guy is a player.

Example: People went from loving Eddie Lacy to, by the time it was ff draft time, letting him slide and he showed us that all the things we loved in college were legit. .

Just my opinion.

Davis was #16 pre-combine so he wasn't far off from not being on my list to begin with. I don't think I'm making a mistake here because like I said, some guys I had in the same tier proved to be a better athlete, to go along with their production/skillset during the combine so why wouldn't you move those guys above him? These guys proved to be a better athlete in the underwear olympics than Davis so it makes no sense not to use that data and move them above. This is still pre-combine, and I'll tinker with it probably 200x before my actual draft.

Agholor and Yeldon that high are crazy.

Why? Agholor and Yeldon both have the skills that cannot be learned. They are ballers. They are smart players with a natural feel for the game. They both could use some weight loss/gain but the skills are there to be productive NFL players.

I like Agholor but not that high. At 11 suggests he's a 1st round Rookie pick. Yeldon is a Day 3 prospect and no better than Javorius Allen.

I will post my rankings soon. But I have Tyler Lockett and Tre McBride over Agholor.

 

[Warrior]

What does "they are ballers" mean? That sounds like a lazy sort of analysis, along the lines of "he just wants it more"

 

[Zyphros]

What does "they are ballers" mean? That sounds like a lazy sort of analysis, along the lines of "he just wants it more"

Excuse me for thinking you would actually read my whole post... But let me re-type it for your benefit. They are smart players with a natural feel for the game. I'll dive a little deeper for you though since you probably didn't read that. Agholor is a tough guy who has good body control, quick feet, and has proven to be dynamic. His hands are a little suspect (which I would have loved to see him in the gauntlet drills) but I chalk that up to concentration which can be learned. Yeldon is strong, has tremendous footwork and his vision is outstanding. Again traits you can't teach are of high value to me, and I'm assuming they can learn the other nuances. They are natural football players from watching their film.

Really looks like I'm higher than most from all these questions (no actual rankings) about a few guys, Agholor, Yeldon mainly and that's fine. I'm sure everyone's rankings as of right now has some guys who people can question and a lot can change when we actually know draft position/landing spot. I welcome the criticisms right now so I can possibly re-watch some guys and learn more where I may be missing the mark with the information we have up until this point.

 

[Biabreakable]

Post combine list for standard leagues


Tier 1 these are players I expect to be capable of becoming top 12 performers at their position in FF within their 1st 3 seasons. I consider all players ranked in the same tier to be pretty equal as prospects, just ranked by my personal preference.

I split this tier into 1a and 1b the 1a players I expect to be top 12 regardless of situation they land in. 1b players I consider to be more situation dependent. This also depends on draft position. A lower draft position than expected could drop these players into the second tier as could a bad situation. Both certainly would.

1a

RB Melvin Gordon
WR Amari Cooper
WR DeVante Parker
WR Kevin White
RB Todd Gurley

1b

RB Jay Ajayi
WR Sammie Coates
RB Tevin Coleman
WR Jaelen Strong
WR Dorial Green-Beckham
RB Ameer Abdullah
RB Duke Johnson
QB Marcus Mariota
QB Jameis Winston

Tier 2 these players I expect to be capable of finishing top 24 at their position but not top 12. Situation and/or draft position could push these players into the first or third tier.

WR Devin Smith
RB TJ Yeldon
WR Breshad Perriman
TE Maxx Williams
WR Phillip Dorsett
WR Tyler Lockett
RB David Cobb
WR/TE Devin Funchess
QB Brett Hundley
RB David Johnson
TE Clive Warford
RB Jeremy Langford
WR Nelson Agholor
RB Cameron Artis-Payne
WR Austin Hill

Tier 3 these players I expect to be fringe starters or watch list players

WR Rashad Greene
WR Kenny Bell
WR Stefon Diggs
WR Chris Conley
RB Troy Williams
RB Karlos Williams
WR Titus Davis
RB Javorius Allen
WR John Harris
RB Mike Davis
WR Ty Montgomery
WR Devante Davis
In PPR scoring formats none of the players would change tiers but they might change ranking within the tier. For example Jaelen Strong would move ahead of Sammie Coates on the 1b tier in PPR.

Please bear in mind that I am still evaluating players on this list and there are still players I have not gotten to yet who may be added to this list over the next month or two as I learn more about them.

I did not have a tier 1a and 1b in my rankings for 2014 but I did recently attempt a combined ranking in this thread using my 2014 February list here.

edit - because I had Diggs listed twice for some reason.

 

[Zyphros]

1st one I've seen with such a low ranking of Gurley, does that make you very cautious about him? The worst I've seen him ranked is 3rd.

 

[Biabreakable]

1st one I've seen with such a low ranking of Gurley, does that make you very cautious about him? The worst I've seen him ranked is 3rd.

I have Gurley at the bottom of the top tier because of the uncertainty about his draft position (he might fall into the 2nd round of the NFL draft) and his readiness to play in 2015.

I don't expect to get any new actionable information about that until after the NFL draft.

If reports about his health do come out prior to that, possibly medical evaluation at his pro day? Then I could see moving him up to 3rd or even 1st on my list. But for now I am not comfortable having him any higher than this.

I do consider all 5 of the 1a players to be equally good prospects with a higher chance of becoming top 12 players in FF than the 1b prospects do.

 

[pizzatyme]

I have no background in scouting and film breakdown, but if there are 15 or more WRs better this year as rookies than Kenny Bell, that will be awesome! I saw him in person at the combine and he was impressive.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Why are we concerned, even a tiny little itty bit, about Gurley's ability to play in 2015? It's a rookie draft, to build your team long-term. Some rookies can produce year one, but you should never make decisions based on that. The vast majority of even elite rookie prospects don't spend a ton of meaningful time in fantasy lineups their rookie years.

 

[Biabreakable]

I suppose you could take the view that you do not expect any of your rookie players to start for you and that you are expecting to red shirt them for the first season anyways while starting other players on your roster. I think that is reasonable because it usually takes rookies a season or sometimes more before they make an impact to your starting lineup.

However last season several WR were able to make enough of an impact to help you win games in their rookie seasons. A RB especially can have this type of impact for your team right away, that you would be able to start them and get some return on your investment. Especially if that investment is a top 5 rookie pick.

You could say this does not matter because the picks are meant for 2016. But I think you skip a lot of opportunities to improve your team in 2015 with that outlook.

I will remind you that I value all 1a players equally because I think they can become top 12 players in FF within 3 seasons regardless of which team drafts them. But draft position does have a role in how I will value the player post NFL draft. I do not know if all five of these players will be 1st round picks in the NFL draft. It is possible one falls to the second round. I would tend to rank that player lower than the other four players after gaining that knowledge.

The most likely player for that to happen to right now is Todd Gurley. Depending on what happens with his medical evaluations in months ahead.

So if Gordon, Cooper, White, and Parker are all drafted ahead of Gurley in the NFL draft and they all go to better situations as well? Then I will have anticipated this possibility and ranked the players as I would in that scenario that seems like the most likely of many possible outcomes based on mocks right now.

If you are doing projections as I try to do. I have a goal o targeting players who can provide 50 VBD or so seasons for me. I think all five of these players could do that and possibly do that right away.

So if I am giving each of these players 50 VBD in 2015 2016 and 2017 that is 150 VBD but one of those players is not going to provide me 50 VBD in 2015 then that player is worth 100VBD Therefore the first season does matter.

Now to the ankle injury and then ACL injury in November.

It is possible that Todd Gurley recovers quickly enough to play early on and play well in the 2015 season. We do not know yet. At least I sure don't.

It is also possible that the injury is worse than we know and Gurley may not be ready to contribute until 2016. Just because Adrian Peterson recovered from ACL injury in 9 months (also injured in November) and was able to play so well right away in the season following it does not mean that is the case for every player.

Remember when Johnathan Stewart came into the league?

What if you could have drafted Rashard Mendenhall. Matt Forte, or Chris Johnson instead?

Stewart had ankle injuries as a sophmore then after declaring for the draft he had to have surgery on his toe in March and it was announced he would miss four to six months. So he wouldn't be able to participate in TC or preseason. He did end up having some good games in that first season weeks 11 and 14 but for the most part he wasn't usable as a rookie. He was drafted 13th overall.

What if all 32 teams pass on Gurley and then when he is drafted he goes to a team with an already established starter? For example when SF took Lattimore knowing they had Frank Gore in the mean time while they found out if Lattimore could recover or not. I do not mean to compare these two injuries. I think Lattimores was much more severe and IIRC he had multiple tears as well. All I mean is that a team like Chicago for example could draft Gurley with the intent to have their starter play in 2015 then transition to Gurley in 2016. Because of the uncertainty of his health it seems more likely for this to happen.

Then what if some teams release injury information post draft similar to what the Broncos said about their decision to draft Monte Ball over Eddie Lacy? This is potentially another decision point where Gurley's value could drop.

There are too many unknowns for me to not at least give these possibilities consideration and account for that. There are unknowns about the other rookies as well, but at least they are not currently recovering from an ACL injury.

 

[Xue]

Why are we concerned, even a tiny little itty bit, about Gurley's ability to play in 2015? It's a rookie draft, to build your team long-term. Some rookies can produce year one, but you should never make decisions based on that. The vast majority of even elite rookie prospects don't spend a ton of meaningful time in fantasy lineups their rookie years.

Yeah, I don't understand this. It's just recency bias. Jay Ajayi tore his ACL as a Freshman and no one talks about it. Gurley is still really young, so it seems that would be in his favor in his recovery.

 

[msommer]

Who of the RBs played in offenses where they had to pass block?

Were any of them good at it?

 

[Biabreakable]

Why are we concerned, even a tiny little itty bit, about Gurley's ability to play in 2015? It's a rookie draft, to build your team long-term. Some rookies can produce year one, but you should never make decisions based on that. The vast majority of even elite rookie prospects don't spend a ton of meaningful time in fantasy lineups their rookie years.

Yeah, I don't understand this. It's just recency bias. Jay Ajayi tore his ACL as a Freshman and no one talks about it. Gurley is still really young, so it seems that would be in his favor in his recovery.

Does Jay Ayaji have a ACL injury now that could keep him from playing in 2015? It is not just recency bias. It is projecting which players will be healthy enough to contribute in 2015.

To just ignore that the player is injured is not taking all of the information we do have into consideration.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Why are we concerned, even a tiny little itty bit, about Gurley's ability to play in 2015? It's a rookie draft, to build your team long-term. Some rookies can produce year one, but you should never make decisions based on that. The vast majority of even elite rookie prospects don't spend a ton of meaningful time in fantasy lineups their rookie years.

Yeah, I don't understand this. It's just recency bias. Jay Ajayi tore his ACL as a Freshman and no one talks about it. Gurley is still really young, so it seems that would be in his favor in his recovery.

Does Jay Ayaji have a ACL injury now that could keep him from playing in 2015? It is not just recency bias. It is projecting which players will be healthy enough to contribute in 2015.

To just ignore that the player is injured is not taking all of the information we do have into consideration.

The point is, why do we care what he does in 2015, he's a rookie?

 

[Mister CIA]

I suppose you could take the view that you do not expect any of your rookie players to start for you and that you are expecting to red shirt them for the first season anyways while starting other players on your roster. I think that is reasonable because it usually takes rookies a season or sometimes more before they make an impact to your starting lineup.

However last season several WR were able to make enough of an impact to help you win games in their rookie seasons. A RB especially can have this type of impact for your team right away, that you would be able to start them and get some return on your investment. Especially if that investment is a top 5 rookie pick.

You could say this does not matter because the picks are meant for 2016. But I think you skip a lot of opportunities to improve your team in 2015 with that outlook.

I will remind you that I value all 1a players equally because I think they can become top 12 players in FF within 3 seasons regardless of which team drafts them. But draft position does have a role in how I will value the player post NFL draft. I do not know if all five of these players will be 1st round picks in the NFL draft. It is possible one falls to the second round. I would tend to rank that player lower than the other four players after gaining that knowledge.

The most likely player for that to happen to right now is Todd Gurley. Depending on what happens with his medical evaluations in months ahead.

So if Gordon, Cooper, White, and Parker are all drafted ahead of Gurley in the NFL draft and they all go to better situations as well? Then I will have anticipated this possibility and ranked the players as I would in that scenario that seems like the most likely of many possible outcomes based on mocks right now.

If you are doing projections as I try to do. I have a goal o targeting players who can provide 50 VBD or so seasons for me. I think all five of these players could do that and possibly do that right away.

So if I am giving each of these players 50 VBD in 2015 2016 and 2017 that is 150 VBD but one of those players is not going to provide me 50 VBD in 2015 then that player is worth 100VBD Therefore the first season does matter.

Now to the ankle injury and then ACL injury in November.

It is possible that Todd Gurley recovers quickly enough to play early on and play well in the 2015 season. We do not know yet. At least I sure don't.

It is also possible that the injury is worse than we know and Gurley may not be ready to contribute until 2016. Just because Adrian Peterson recovered from ACL injury in 9 months (also injured in November) and was able to play so well right away in the season following it does not mean that is the case for every player.

Remember when Johnathan Stewart came into the league?

What if you could have drafted Rashard Mendenhall. Matt Forte, or Chris Johnson instead?

Stewart had ankle injuries as a sophmore then after declaring for the draft he had to have surgery on his toe in March and it was announced he would miss four to six months. So he wouldn't be able to participate in TC or preseason. He did end up having some good games in that first season weeks 11 and 14 but for the most part he wasn't usable as a rookie. He was drafted 13th overall.

What if all 32 teams pass on Gurley and then when he is drafted he goes to a team with an already established starter? For example when SF took Lattimore knowing they had Frank Gore in the mean time while they found out if Lattimore could recover or not. I do not mean to compare these two injuries. I think Lattimores was much more severe and IIRC he had multiple tears as well. All I mean is that a team like Chicago for example could draft Gurley with the intent to have their starter play in 2015 then transition to Gurley in 2016. Because of the uncertainty of his health it seems more likely for this to happen.

Then what if some teams release injury information post draft similar to what the Broncos said about their decision to draft Monte Ball over Eddie Lacy? This is potentially another decision point where Gurley's value could drop.

There are too many unknowns for me to not at least give these possibilities consideration and account for that. There are unknowns about the other rookies as well, but at least they are not currently recovering from an ACL injury.

If you start to feel doubts after the weird experience your fingers just had with your keyboard, consider drafting the best player available.

 

[Xue]

Why are we concerned, even a tiny little itty bit, about Gurley's ability to play in 2015? It's a rookie draft, to build your team long-term. Some rookies can produce year one, but you should never make decisions based on that. The vast majority of even elite rookie prospects don't spend a ton of meaningful time in fantasy lineups their rookie years.

Yeah, I don't understand this. It's just recency bias. Jay Ajayi tore his ACL as a Freshman and no one talks about it. Gurley is still really young, so it seems that would be in his favor in his recovery.

Does Jay Ayaji have a ACL injury now that could keep him from playing in 2015? It is not just recency bias. It is projecting which players will be healthy enough to contribute in 2015.

To just ignore that the player is injured is not taking all of the information we do have into consideration.

The point is, why do we care what he does in 2015, he's a rookie?

Exactly. In Dynasty, I don't see it as a big concern. Re-Draft format, he's just a stash.

 

[Gandalf]

Post combine list for standard leagues

Tier 1 these are players I expect to be capable of becoming top 12 performers at their position in FF within their 1st 3 seasons. I consider all players ranked in the same tier to be pretty equal as prospects, just ranked by my personal preference.

I split this tier into 1a and 1b the 1a players I expect to be top 12 regardless of situation they land in. 1b players I consider to be more situation dependent. This also depends on draft position. A lower draft position than expected could drop these players into the second tier as could a bad situation. Both certainly would.

1a

RB Melvin Gordon

WR Amari Cooper

WR DeVante Parker

WR Kevin White

RB Todd Gurley

1b

RB Jay Ajayi

WR Sammie Coates

RB Tevin Coleman

WR Jaelen Strong

WR Dorial Green-Beckham

RB Ameer Abdullah

RB Duke Johnson

QB Marcus Mariota

QB Jameis Winston

Tier 2 these players I expect to be capable of finishing top 24 at their position but not top 12. Situation and/or draft position could push these players into the first or third tier.

WR Devin Smith

RB TJ Yeldon

WR Breshad Perriman

TE Maxx Williams

WR Phillip Dorsett

WR Tyler Lockett

RB David Cobb

WR/TE Devin Funchess

QB Brett Hundley

RB David Johnson

TE Clive Warford

RB Jeremy Langford

WR Nelson Agholor

RB Cameron Artis-Payne

WR Austin Hill

Tier 3 these players I expect to be fringe starters or watch list players

WR Rashad Greene

WR Kenny Bell

WR Stefon Diggs

WR Chris Conley

RB Troy Williams

RB Karlos Williams

WR Titus Davis

RB Javorius Allen

WR John Harris

RB Mike Davis

WR Stephon Diggs

WR Ty Montgomery

WR Devante Davis

In PPR scoring formats none of the players would change tiers but they might change ranking within the tier. For example Jaelen Strong would move ahead of Sammie Coates on the 1b tier in PPR.

Please bear in mind that I am still evaluating players on this list and there are still players I have not gotten to yet who may be added to this list over the next month or two as I learn more about them.

I did not have a tier 1a and 1b in my rankings for 2014 but I did recently attempt a combined ranking in this thread using my 2014 February list here.

Bia, I really like your methodology. Strong work! And at the same time, I think of the 1a tier Gordon and Gurley have to be in a tier higher than the WRs simply because if they have a real shot to be a RB1 or top 12 at their position and given the relative scarcity at RB, I take that chance easily. Note this is not always a draft a RB over a WR strategy. Just I have seen enough of Gurley and Gordon to think they can be top 12 players also and I swing for the fences on that - assuming they land in good spots and maybe even if they don't.

 

[Biabreakable]

I hear what you are saying Gandalf and for the most part I agree that both Gordon and Gurley look like great RB. Best RBs I have seen since Trent Richardson. (gulp).

At the same time I think DeVante Parker and Amari Cooper are similarly transcendent talents at WR. I do not feel as strongly about that in regards to Kevin White, but I still rank White with them because of the chorus of draftniks and supporters who do. Although there is not as much scarcity at the WR position as there is at RB. The WR careers last so much longer than a RB. I have given this a lot of thought and I consider tier 1a players to be pretty much equal as prospects for FF. Because of this I could see myself drafting any of these five based on my team goals at the time. If I have a team that is strong at WR and ready to compete now I would favor the RB. If my team were still building then I absolutely would favor the WR. In a start up draft I would favor the WR.

I have done my best to rank these players based on their talent. This is where I run into trouble with the Gurley folks who believe he is far and away the best player in this draft. Perhaps I am being unnecessarily cautious in regards to him. But I try to consider risk in these rankings as well, I see a lot of injury risk with him, not only because of his current injury but also because of his running style. I had similar concerns about Eddie Lacy when he was coming out. I also ranked Keenan Allen lower than I thought his talent was because of concerns about his injuries and how he fell in the draft because of that. Perhaps I am wrong to do this. But injuries make me very nervous. So that gets factored in.

I would love to see other peoples rankings. I certainly do not consider my list to be set in stone. There will be changes as I gain more information. I do appreciate the feedback and criticism that is constructive.

 

[Slapdash]

Thoughts on Mike Davis ?

Pre-combine he was in my top20 because he was a personal favorite of mine, then the combine happened and well he kind of plummeted. When it comes down to it there are guys I had in the same tier as Davis, that showed pretty well during the combine and backed up some of what I saw in watching them so I moved them up a bit. Jeremy Langford is a great example of that. In the end Davis is a tough runner who always falls forward but he may just end up being a JAG in the NFL.

Guess I put the topic up too early and nobody else has rankings yet ha

If he was a top 20 pre-combine, I think you should give it another look.

One of the biggest mistakes I think people make in FF is getting caught up on the recent stuff and then suddenly disregarding all those things they saw over the course of 1-4 years that made you think the guy is a player.

Example: People went from loving Eddie Lacy to, by the time it was ff draft time, letting him slide and he showed us that all the things we loved in college were legit. .

Just my opinion.

I think people that had him in the top 20 pre-combine are really just looking at his sophomore year. Last year was not a good showing. His usage in a passing game went from strength to weakness, he gained weight, and did not show nearly as much speed as the prior year. The combine reinforced that.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Tier 1: Very slim chance these are not my top 5 guys come draft day.

1. Todd Gurley RB

2. Melvin Gordon RB

3. Amari Cooper WR

4. DeVante Parker WR

5. Kevin White WR

Tier 2: Nice group of options here.

6. Jay Ajayi RB

7. Ameer Abdullah RB

8. Jaelen Strong WR

9. DGB WR

10. Breshad Perriman WR

11. Devin Smith WR

12. Tevin Coleman RB

13. Duke Johnson RB

14. TJ Yeldon RB

15. Sammie Coates WR

16. Jameis Winston QB

17. Marcus Mariota QB

Tier 3: Respectable prospects. Most should go in top 100 of NFL draft. This group is obviously the most fluid right now. We'll need to see how the NFL feels about these guys.

18. Maxx Williams TE

19. Philip Dorsett WR

20. Devin Funchess WR/TE

21. Rashad Greene WR

22. David Cobb RB

23. David Johnson RB

24. Clive Warford TE

25. Jeremy Langford RB

26. Nelson Algohor WR

27. Cameron Artis-Payne RB

28. Buck Allen RB

29. Tyler Lockett WR

30. Tre McBride WR

Move Winston and Mariota as your league scoring dictates.

 

[Andrew74]

I hear what you are saying Gandalf and for the most part I agree that both Gordon and Gurley look like great RB. Best RBs I have seen since Trent Richardson. (gulp).

At the same time I think DeVante Parker and Amari Cooper are similarly transcendent talents at WR. .

I just wonder what we can expect from Cooper and Parker given the crowded WR market. The top 12 is packed with young talented WRs and many more in the 13-30 range looking to get in. If Gurley/Gordon are remotely close to as good as everyone thinks, they could be top 5 options given the aging RB landscape.

 

[Dan Hindery]

Why are we concerned, even a tiny little itty bit, about Gurley's ability to play in 2015? It's a rookie draft, to build your team long-term. Some rookies can produce year one, but you should never make decisions based on that. The vast majority of even elite rookie prospects don't spend a ton of meaningful time in fantasy lineups their rookie years.

Yeah, I don't understand this. It's just recency bias. Jay Ajayi tore his ACL as a Freshman and no one talks about it. Gurley is still really young, so it seems that would be in his favor in his recovery.

Does Jay Ayaji have a ACL injury now that could keep him from playing in 2015? It is not just recency bias. It is projecting which players will be healthy enough to contribute in 2015.

To just ignore that the player is injured is not taking all of the information we do have into consideration.

The point is, why do we care what he does in 2015, he's a rookie?

Exactly. In Dynasty, I don't see it as a big concern. Re-Draft format, he's just a stash.

Disagree completely with this, especially for a RB. Of course we should care about what he does as a rookie.

You only get so many years of production out of any player and that is especially true for a RB. Projecting that any player will miss his rookie year or not be productive as a rookie should have a negative impact on his value in comparison to a player who will be productive as a rookie.

As for the specific player in question, I think it's highly likely that Gurley will be ready to go and have a great rookie year, so I wouldn't knock him down hardly at all due to his injury. I see him as much more than a stash in re-draft as well. His current ADP in MFL10 drafts for February was RB24 which seems appropriate (if not a little low as I'd take him higher than that).

 

[Dan Hindery]

Assuming we're talking PPR leagues, I think people are underrating Ameer Abdullah. He's not that far off from Melvin Gordon at all and I'd put him ahead of guys like Coleman and Yeldon (though I do like Yeldon quite a bit). 19 overall is way too low IMO.

I expect Abdullah to be drafted somewhere in round 2 (by a team with a good plan on how they will use him) which is pretty strong for a RB these days and I think once people see his draft spot, he is going to shoot up ahead of guys that get drafted later and into less clear roles.

 

[Biabreakable]

I hear what you are saying Gandalf and for the most part I agree that both Gordon and Gurley look like great RB. Best RBs I have seen since Trent Richardson. (gulp).

At the same time I think DeVante Parker and Amari Cooper are similarly transcendent talents at WR. .

I just wonder what we can expect from Cooper and Parker given the crowded WR market. The top 12 is packed with young talented WRs and many more in the 13-30 range looking to get in. If Gurley/Gordon are remotely close to as good as everyone thinks, they could be top 5 options given the aging RB landscape.

You bring up an excellent point about a aging group of RB across the NFL that I would like to give more consideration to. There certainly is a lack of young RB talent right now in part due to some poor RB groups over the past several seasons and also in part because of teams shifting more to RBBC combinations and passing the ball more.

I have been seeing Cooper, White and Parker being mocked to the Raiders, Rams, Vikings, Browns, Dolphins, 49ers, Chiefs. Some of these teams do not have good QB. But all of these teams draft in the top 18 and most of these teams do not have a lot of other receiving options to keep these WR from becoming WR1s quickly in their offenses. The Raiders, Vikings and Dolphins are especially interesting because they all have young QB who have performed well and may be some of the better QB of the future if they continue to improve. Becoming the main target for a potential QB1 of the future seems like a good alignment for a WR to become a WR1 in the near future and perhaps sustainably for a long period of time.

Meanwhile some of the top WR talents from last season such as DT and Sanders in Denver may see a decrease in targets and possible decline with Manning. Dez Bryant seems like he is in some trouble right now. There are also older WR like Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Boldin, Steve Smith who may fall out as soon as this season. The 2014 WR class was amazing. But I think these 3WR can compete with them for those top 12 slots that are not really sewn up or too overpopulated for these WR to break into that group.

 

[Xue]

Why are we concerned, even a tiny little itty bit, about Gurley's ability to play in 2015? It's a rookie draft, to build your team long-term. Some rookies can produce year one, but you should never make decisions based on that. The vast majority of even elite rookie prospects don't spend a ton of meaningful time in fantasy lineups their rookie years.

Yeah, I don't understand this. It's just recency bias. Jay Ajayi tore his ACL as a Freshman and no one talks about it. Gurley is still really young, so it seems that would be in his favor in his recovery.

Does Jay Ayaji have a ACL injury now that could keep him from playing in 2015? It is not just recency bias. It is projecting which players will be healthy enough to contribute in 2015.

To just ignore that the player is injured is not taking all of the information we do have into consideration.

The point is, why do we care what he does in 2015, he's a rookie?

Exactly. In Dynasty, I don't see it as a big concern. Re-Draft format, he's just a stash.

Disagree completely with this, especially for a RB. Of course we should care about what he does as a rookie.

You only get so many years of production out of any player and that is especially true for a RB. Projecting that any player will miss his rookie year or not be productive as a rookie should have a negative impact on his value in comparison to a player who will be productive as a rookie.

As for the specific player in question, I think it's highly likely that Gurley will be ready to go and have a great rookie year, so I wouldn't knock him down hardly at all due to his injury. I see him as much more than a stash in re-draft as well. His current ADP in MFL10 drafts for February was RB24 which seems appropriate (if not a little low as I'd take him higher than that).

I care less what Gurley does as a Rookie because he's so young. Here are 21-year old Rookie RBs drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds over the last 30 years and how they did as a Rookie: http://i.imgur.com/nam3iet.png

Some good RBs who didn't do much, specifically, probably weren't worth owning to start in a re-draft.

 

[Archer]

Clinton Portis was such a bad ### his rookie year.

 

[Gandalf]

I hear what you are saying Gandalf and for the most part I agree that both Gordon and Gurley look like great RB. Best RBs I have seen since Trent Richardson. (gulp).

At the same time I think DeVante Parker and Amari Cooper are similarly transcendent talents at WR. I do not feel as strongly about that in regards to Kevin White, but I still rank White with them because of the chorus of draftniks and supporters who do. Although there is not as much scarcity at the WR position as there is at RB. The WR careers last so much longer than a RB. I have given this a lot of thought and I consider tier 1a players to be pretty much equal as prospects for FF. Because of this I could see myself drafting any of these five based on my team goals at the time. If I have a team that is strong at WR and ready to compete now I would favor the RB. If my team were still building then I absolutely would favor the WR. In a start up draft I would favor the WR.

I have done my best to rank these players based on their talent. This is where I run into trouble with the Gurley folks who believe he is far and away the best player in this draft. Perhaps I am being unnecessarily cautious in regards to him. But I try to consider risk in these rankings as well, I see a lot of injury risk with him, not only because of his current injury but also because of his running style. I had similar concerns about Eddie Lacy when he was coming out. I also ranked Keenan Allen lower than I thought his talent was because of concerns about his injuries and how he fell in the draft because of that. Perhaps I am wrong to do this. But injuries make me very nervous. So that gets factored in.

I would love to see other peoples rankings. I certainly do not consider my list to be set in stone. There will be changes as I gain more information. I do appreciate the feedback and criticism that is constructive.

Okay I think that makes a lot of sense. The choice of 1a players comes down then to team needs. I agree with that. I like your ranking so I hope you do a post draft one as well. Thanks!

 

[Zyphros]

Assuming we're talking PPR leagues, I think people are underrating Ameer Abdullah. He's not that far off from Melvin Gordon at all and I'd put him ahead of guys like Coleman and Yeldon (though I do like Yeldon quite a bit). 19 overall is way too low IMO.

I expect Abdullah to be drafted somewhere in round 2 (by a team with a good plan on how they will use him) which is pretty strong for a RB these days and I think once people see his draft spot, he is going to shoot up ahead of guys that get drafted later and into less clear roles.

I expect the same in regards to Abdullah, but I think his situation dictates his rookie draft slot the most. If he goes to a team with a 3 down RB who is already outstanding at catching the football, then his value obviously goes down. My #19 from a week ago is a conservative spot (and I have moved him up since then) that I wouldn't want to take that chance much earlier. I do like him, but situation is a big key in his value.

 

[ZWK]

1 WR Amari Cooper

2 WR DeVante Parker

3 RB Todd Gurley

4 RB Melvin Gordon

5 WR Kevin White

6 QB Marcus Mariota

7 RB Jay Ajayi

8 QB Jameis Winston

9 WR Devin Smith

10 RB Ameer Abdullah

11 WR Dorial Green-Beckham

12 WR Sammie Coates

13 WR Breshad Perriman

14 WR Jaelen Strong

15 RB David Johnson

16 WR Tyler Lockett

17 RB Duke Johnson

18 WR Phillip Dorsett

19 RB Tevin Coleman

20 WR Devin Funchess

21 RB David Cobb

22 WR Nelson Agholar

23 TE Maxx Williams

24 WR Chris Conley

I think that this is the order I'd pick these players in if I was drafting now, taking into account my own ratings and opinions as well as what I'm hearing from everyone else.

Top 5 is obvious. Cooper is a pretty clear #1 to me - he checks all the boxes. The other 4 could get shuffled around.

6-10: The QBs are highly rated here because I'm relatively confident that their value will hold up after the NFL draft. There will probably be more RBs/WRs ahead of them after the draft, but I don't know which ones. Ajayi, Smith, and Abdullah are three cases where my numbers and the conventional wisdom both give pretty clear (if not super-enthusiastic) thumbs up.

11-20 is a mix of guys who I like and guys who have buzz, with the ones who are being talked about as potential first rounders on top (even if I'm not wild about them). DGB has the boom-bust thing going for him, my numbers love Coates because he looks like the next Stephen Hill (the negative side of that comparison keeps him out of my top 10, but the positive side of it keeps him near the top of this tier), and I'm relatively down on Strong but can't ignore all the people who have him as a top 30 player. David Johnson has size & hands & blew up the combine. Lockett is the player in this tier who I'm feeling most excited about right now (with visions of Antonio Brown dancing in my head), but that's probably more because he's being neglected than because he belongs higher than 16th. I guess he's more likely to be the next Jarius Wright, or perhaps a situation-dependent technician like Emmanuel Sanders.

21-24 Cobb, Agholar, and Conley are decent prospects in my eyes and according to conventional wisdom. Maxx Williams is just here because other people like him.

 

[RaiderBones]

.

 

[Donnybrook]

1 WR Amari Cooper

2 WR DeVante Parker

3 RB Todd Gurley

4 RB Melvin Gordon

5 WR Kevin White

6 QB Marcus Mariota

7 RB Jay Ajayi

8 QB Jameis Winston

9 WR Devin Smith

10 RB Ameer Abdullah

11 WR Dorial Green-Beckham

12 WR Sammie Coates

13 WR Breshad Perriman

14 WR Jaelen Strong

15 RB David Johnson

16 WR Tyler Lockett

17 RB Duke Johnson

18 WR Phillip Dorsett

19 RB Tevin Coleman

20 WR Devin Funchess

21 RB David Cobb

22 WR Nelson Agholar

23 TE Maxx Williams

24 WR Chris Conley

I also would consider taking the top 3 WRs over Gordon and Gurley in dynasty. I totally disagree on Tevin Coleman. He is still my #3 RB.

 

[Zyphros]

Thought I'd update my rankings before the draft. Same caveat's as my first post - 2QB league PPR based.

1. Todd Gurley

2. Melvin Gordon

3. Amari Cooper

4. Kevin White

5. Marcus Mariotta

6. Jameis Winston

7. TJ Yeldon

8. Jay Ajayi

9. Nelson Agholor

10. DGB

11. Ameer Abdullah

12. Davante Parker

13. Tevin Coleman

14. Jaelen Strong

15. David Johnson

16. Tre McBride

17. Sammie Coates

18. Maxx Williams

19. Breshad Perriman

20. Justin Hardy

21. Karlos Williams

22. Jeremy langford

23. Kenny Bell

24. Devin Smith

25. David Cobb

26. Buck Allen

27. Stefon Diggs

28. Chris Conley

29. Cameron Artis-Payne

30. Tyler Lockett

31. Brett Hundley

32. Mike Davis

33. Vince Mayle

34. Phillip Dorsett

35. Duke Johnson

36. Rashad Greene

37. Ty Montgomery

38. Bryce Petty

39. Michael Dyer

40. Devin Funchess

 

[Run It Up]

Agholor and DGB before Parker. I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.

 

[Zyphros]

Agholor and DGB before Parker. I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.

The biggest difference to me between Agholor and Parker is roughly 2 inches and the fact Agholor plays with some attitude while Parker doesn't. When it's all said and done, I'll likely have Parker higher than DGB due to draft slot but I think before that information is given to us I'll take the upside of DGB before Parker.

Agholor is quietly being talked about as a mid 1st round pick.

 

[Dan Hindery]

Too low on Parker, Dorsett and Perriman in my opinion. Probably Funchess too. Even though I'm not really a fan, the guy does have talent and passing on him for the Vince Mayle's of the world is a mistake.

I thinkthere are going to be a couple WRs drafted pretty close to Parker in terms of the NFL draft. Like Parker may go 11 or 12 and then we see another WR at 14 or 16. Due to that, I think people are going to underestimate a little bit how big a gap there is between how NFL scouts are grading these guys. Parker's a clear tier above even if he gets drafted only a few picks ahead. I love the Bob McGinn columns for clarifying some of the NFL value in my head and I think it's pretty clear how the overall tiers break down at WR right now:

Cooper

White

Parker

DGB

Agholor

Perriman

Strong

Dorsett

Funchess

Smith

Lockett

Coates

Hardy

Greene

Conley

McBride

Parker is kind of in a tier of his own below the top 2, but above the next scrum of guys. To me, he's the clear cut #3. Don't like him higher and can't justify him lower.

Ranking #4 to #9 I think comes down to draft fit and personal preference, but those guys are all packed pretty tightly (though DGB would be higher but for the off field stuff, so I'd probably have him 4th). I think any of those top 9 WRs are great picks if they slide into round 2 of a rookie draft.

 

[pizzatyme]

Don't look over Kenny Bell! He's a silent assassin.

 

[Shutout]

Thinking Phillip Dorsett may be the most overlooked WR in this draft. I see T.Y. Hilton but can't find him consistently in the top 12 or so rook ranks.

Any takers or anyone to slap some sense into me? Am I wearing rose colored glasses?

 

[pizzatyme]

Thinking Phillip Dorsett may be the most overlooked WR in this draft. I see T.Y. Hilton but can't find him consistently in the top 12 or so rook ranks.

Any takers or anyone to slap some sense into me? Am I wearing rose colored glasses?

I got to see him in person at the combine. I came in thinking 1 trick pony but left with him and Cooper as 2 of my top candidates. He could very well be a TY-type. Smooth cutter and naturally caught the ball.