Post-Draft Bloom 100 (1 Viewer)

[Time Kibitzer]

I think Bloom is dead on with Ebron. People may be playing connect the dots a bit too much.

He is not the same guy as Graham and he has very legit players that are going to scrape off layers of his opportunity. In the RZ, Fauria is there. Is calvin going to see a noted decrease in order to feed the targets to Ebron? Pettigrew is still there, for whatever it is worth, for whatever amount of time.

Bush and Bell are always threats to take some of that short stuff.

And, they just added a legit 2nd Wr.

To me, I see lots of spread it around type play and that usually isn't conducive to TE stardom. What they have in New Orleans is an unnatural love from Brees to Graham and Graham has shown he can go get that ball. I'm not sure I see the thing in Ebron. I think we have a Jared Cook/Greg Olsen on our hands. Sure, he will do it sometimes. He will get what's left open for him. He will show athleticism. But he's not a guy you have to say "if we don't specifically plan for him, he will destroy us."

In a dynasty league I'm not sure that you should be of the mindset that when you draft a TE, he's going to be productive as a rookie - it just doesn't happen all that often.

So with that said, why are we discounting Ebron based on the presense of a 29 year old RB, a 28 yeard old RB, a 30+ mediocre TE and a project TE?

That's a good point, really for all of these players - and that's where i come back to Ebron not dominating the way his tools and draft pick would lead you to think he would at UNC (especially in the red zone)

He led his team in receptions (by a lot), yards (by a lot), and yards-per-reception, which is all pretty impressive for a TE imo. I think his lack of TDs can be explained to a certain point by just bad luck, or perhaps bad QB play.

Here in this one series against Pittsburgh, the UNC QB misses a wide open Ebron in the end zone twice:

First

Second (this one is a particularly terrible miss)

Really the lack of TDs are disconcerting, but at the same time he really has all the skills one needs to at the very least be a good red-zone target. Nice size, hands, jumping ability, athletic ability, etc. etc. So I think it'd be a mistake to think Ebron is doomed to having low TD totals because he did in college.

 

[ebsteelers]

Any concern that Mason couldnt block Cecil Lamney coming off the edge?

Lot of times rookies who dont block wont see the field

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I think Bloom is dead on with Ebron. People may be playing connect the dots a bit too much.

He is not the same guy as Graham and he has very legit players that are going to scrape off layers of his opportunity. In the RZ, Fauria is there. Is calvin going to see a noted decrease in order to feed the targets to Ebron? Pettigrew is still there, for whatever it is worth, for whatever amount of time.

Bush and Bell are always threats to take some of that short stuff.

And, they just added a legit 2nd Wr.

To me, I see lots of spread it around type play and that usually isn't conducive to TE stardom. What they have in New Orleans is an unnatural love from Brees to Graham and Graham has shown he can go get that ball. I'm not sure I see the thing in Ebron. I think we have a Jared Cook/Greg Olsen on our hands. Sure, he will do it sometimes. He will get what's left open for him. He will show athleticism. But he's not a guy you have to say "if we don't specifically plan for him, he will destroy us."

In a dynasty league I'm not sure that you should be of the mindset that when you draft a TE, he's going to be productive as a rookie - it just doesn't happen all that often.

So with that said, why are we discounting Ebron based on the presense of a 29 year old RB, a 28 yeard old RB, a 30+ mediocre TE and a project TE?

That's a good point, really for all of these players - and that's where i come back to Ebron not dominating the way his tools and draft pick would lead you to think he would at UNC (especially in the red zone)

See Renner, Bryn

 

[Jeremy]

I don't think there's anything people want more in fantasy football than the next Jimmy Graham. We're all jealous of the team that holds that advantage over everyone else.

Might be forcing us to want to see that in Ebron, when it really isn't there.

 

[Shutout]

I don't think there's anything people want more in fantasy football than the next Jimmy Graham. We're all jealous of the team that holds that advantage over everyone else.

Might be forcing us to want to see that in Ebron, when it really isn't there.

This is generally true across the board every time at this year, with lots of players as we tend to manufacture great scenarios instead of rely on what we saw play out for the 1,2,3 years prior. When we go back and review at a later time, predictions and forums are littered with these great hype trains that are now pulled in to eternal stations of disrepair. We all do it, its just natural but that's why I tend to lean more towards "If this guys wasn't hyped for a long time, why not?" Seems like we see much more cases where players come out of nowhere (relatively speaking) in fantasy than those that get super hyped and then actually live up to it.

A few years ago, lots of people talked about Graham's upside but he was drafted in rounds 2/3, etc of drafts and became the force he is. That scenario seems to happen more often than the one where we seemingly build a case for 10 different Rbs each year only to see 1-3 of them actually mean much in a few years.

Ebron gets a lot of attention right now but I just can't see how he will command enough targets to become what a lot are saying. Ok, maybe in 3 years when Calvin is older and Pettigrew and Bush, etc are gone, but, 3 years from now? I can draft or trade for an established TE in the next 3 years just as easily as I can use a resource on one today and then feel compelled to hold it, no matter what, just because I used such a high pick.

To me, the better play is let someone burn a top 5 pick on him and then be frustrated and I'll talk to them next April and give them a 1.12 or a 2.02 or something.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I don't think there's anything people want more in fantasy football than the next Jimmy Graham. We're all jealous of the team that holds that advantage over everyone else.

Might be forcing us to want to see that in Ebron, when it really isn't there.

This is generally true across the board every time at this year, with lots of players as we tend to manufacture great scenarios instead of rely on what we saw play out for the 1,2,3 years prior. When we go back and review at a later time, predictions and forums are littered with these great hype trains that are now pulled in to eternal stations of disrepair. We all do it, its just natural but that's why I tend to lean more towards "If this guys wasn't hyped for a long time, why not?" Seems like we see much more cases where players come out of nowhere (relatively speaking) in fantasy than those that get super hyped and then actually live up to it.

A few years ago, lots of people talked about Graham's upside but he was drafted in rounds 2/3, etc of drafts and became the force he is. That scenario seems to happen more often than the one where we seemingly build a case for 10 different Rbs each year only to see 1-3 of them actually mean much in a few years.

Ebron gets a lot of attention right now but I just can't see how he will command enough targets to become what a lot are saying. Ok, maybe in 3 years when Calvin is older and Pettigrew and Bush, etc are gone, but, 3 years from now? I can draft or trade for an established TE in the next 3 years just as easily as I can use a resource on one today and then feel compelled to hold it, no matter what, just because I used such a high pick.

To me, the better play is let someone burn a top 5 pick on him and then be frustrated and I'll talk to them next April and give them a 1.12 or a 2.02 or something.

Things are changing though, even in the past 2-3 years. Historically it did take TEs a few years to figure things out, but these days when the TE position is transforming into a glorified WR position for many teams, it's becoming a lot more common for TEs to be fantasy assets in just their rookie seasons, just like rookie WRs have been for years. Just last season undrafted TE and glorified WR Tim Wright had 50+ receptions, and 3rd round TE and glorified WR Jordan Reed was on pace for 70+ receptions and 700+ yards before getting injured. I don't think 60+ receptions is out of the realm of possibility for Ebron in his rookie year if he's able to get up to speed quick like Jordan Reed was able to.

Secondly, Pettigrew flat out sucks as a receiver, he hasn't taken a pass over 35 yards in over 280 receptions. His presence doesn't make me worry about Ebron in the slightest, plus Ebron will likely be in the WR2/3 role anyway. The Lions have thrown the ball between 630-730 times a season over the past 3 years, if the Lions think Ebron is their 2nd most dangerous offensive weapon, and given how high of a draft pick they spent there's reason to believe that's the case, there's no reason to think he won't get his more than fair share of targets.

 

[Buckna]

Freeman is going to skyrocket up peoples draft boards in ppr. He was a beast at FSU and should be great in that offense.

Took him in the early to mid 2nd round of two rookie drafts this week and immediately started getting trade feelers and offers. Multiple people said they were hoping "he fell."

 

[Jrodicus]

I guess I'm just not seeing Freeman ahead of Sankey. I don't mind Sankey at 10 (I personally have him a bit higher in leagues where I must start 2 RBs), but I just can't see taking Freeman ahead of him.

 

[gchip]

I guess I'm just not seeing Freeman ahead of Sankey. I don't mind Sankey at 10 (I personally have him a bit higher in leagues where I must start 2 RBs), but I just can't see taking Freeman ahead of him.

I don't think there are many taking Freeman before Sankey or advocating that.

For me, it's more that Freeman landed in a good spot on the Falcons. He's not the 1st RB I'd take but he should be part of the first 5 RBs taken.

 

[jwb]

I guess I'm just not seeing Freeman ahead of Sankey. I don't mind Sankey at 10 (I personally have him a bit higher in leagues where I must start 2 RBs), but I just can't see taking Freeman ahead of him.

I don't think there are many taking Freeman before Sankey or advocating that.

For me, it's more that Freeman landed in a good spot on the Falcons. He's not the 1st RB I'd take but he should be part of the first 5 RBs taken.

I took him at 1.12 - third rb taken after Sankey and Hyde. Happy with that pick.

 

[FUBAR]

I guess I'm just not seeing Freeman ahead of Sankey. I don't mind Sankey at 10 (I personally have him a bit higher in leagues where I must start 2 RBs), but I just can't see taking Freeman ahead of him.

I don't think there are many taking Freeman before Sankey or advocating that.

For me, it's more that Freeman landed in a good spot on the Falcons. He's not the 1st RB I'd take but he should be part of the first 5 RBs taken.

I took him at 1.12 - third rb taken after Sankey and Hyde. Happy with that pick.

Pretty sure I'll be in the same position soon, debating between Freeman and Mason. Liked Mason more before the draft, was drafted higher and is in a good spot. But Freeman looks good too.

 

[ebsteelers]

glad I was able to get Mason at 2.3 and Freeman at 2.10..

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I guess I'm just not seeing Freeman ahead of Sankey. I don't mind Sankey at 10 (I personally have him a bit higher in leagues where I must start 2 RBs), but I just can't see taking Freeman ahead of him.

I won't go to the mat telling you not to take Sankey over Freeman. They are right next to each other in my rankings. The main takeaway should be don't reach for Sankey in top 5 and snap up Freeman in the second

 

[Cabby]

Thanks for this! How close are Watkins and Evans in PPR dynasty? Of the 4 or 5 staff members that have updated their dynasty rankings so far, most of them have Evans ahead of Watkins(although they are close).

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Thanks for this! How close are Watkins and Evans in PPR dynasty? Of the 4 or 5 staff members that have updated their dynasty rankings so far, most of them have Evans ahead of Watkins(although they are close).

they're close enough that i won't say you're making a huge mistake if you take Evans first. That being said, if you have 1.1 and want Evans, i would see if the team picking at 1.2 is up for a trade up unless you really don't want Watkins

 

[DerekR]

Took Freeman at 1.14 and was very happy he was still there. Tre Mason was still aviable

 

[az_prof]

Regarding the backup RB position in Cleveland, Bloom favors the undrafted FA, Crowell (24) over the third round pick, West (44). I spent a lot of time watching film on these two guys and I do understand Bloom's appreciation for Crowell's skills. He is an electrifying runner. But he went undrafted for good reasons: he has a questionable character, and I read one account that he is uncoachable, he isn't a "ready" blocker, he runs upright, and he has had injury issues. When he is on the field, he is dynamic. But will he get on the field, and if he does, will he block well enough to stay on it and will he stay healthy?

In contrast, West is very reliable and was able to stay healthy despite a heavy and productive workload in college. Like Crowell, he is a skilled runner. I was impressed by his tape and by his soft hands as evident in his Pro Day workout. His physical measurables are not quite as good as Crowells, but good enough to be a starting NFL RB. His production in college is outstanding--albeit against inferior competition. But his character appears to be really great. And he is a willing blocker. His faults are ball protection and perhaps lacking a top gear. But he can do everything you want a RB to do and has been able to stay healthy while doing it.

I went with West over Crowell because his third round draft status is a pretty strong endorsement and the fact that Crowell went undrafted, despite his physical talent and skill, tells me that he is going to be a project and one who could easily end up suspended or hurt. I see Crowell as more of a third round flyer who has a high ceiling, but a lot of risk. West also has a high ceiling IMO and is more likely to get opportunity early in his career and more likely to have a long career.

 

[EBF]

I think Bloom is dead on with Ebron. People may be playing connect the dots a bit too much.

He is not the same guy as Graham and he has very legit players that are going to scrape off layers of his opportunity. In the RZ, Fauria is there. Is calvin going to see a noted decrease in order to feed the targets to Ebron? Pettigrew is still there, for whatever it is worth, for whatever amount of time.

Bush and Bell are always threats to take some of that short stuff.

And, they just added a legit 2nd Wr.

To me, I see lots of spread it around type play and that usually isn't conducive to TE stardom. What they have in New Orleans is an unnatural love from Brees to Graham and Graham has shown he can go get that ball. I'm not sure I see the thing in Ebron. I think we have a Jared Cook/Greg Olsen on our hands. Sure, he will do it sometimes. He will get what's left open for him. He will show athleticism. But he's not a guy you have to say "if we don't specifically plan for him, he will destroy us."

In a dynasty league I'm not sure that you should be of the mindset that when you draft a TE, he's going to be productive as a rookie - it just doesn't happen all that often.

So with that said, why are we discounting Ebron based on the presense of a 29 year old RB, a 28 yeard old RB, a 30+ mediocre TE and a project TE?

That's a good point, really for all of these players - and that's where i come back to Ebron not dominating the way his tools and draft pick would lead you to think he would at UNC (especially in the red zone)

I don't see a lot of merit in the underachiever angle. He had 973 receiving yards at 15.7 YPR last season. Both of those figures are off the charts for a college TE. Amaro was the only TE in the country with more yards (1352), but he had a lower YPR (12.8) and played in a much friendlier offense. Texas Tech had 714 pass attempts last season compared to 453 for North Carolina. So Amaro had 39% more yards on a team that threw the ball 58% more often.

Compare Ebron's best yardage season with the best college season for some notable NFL TEs:

Dennis Pitta - 83 catches, 1083 yards (13.0 YPR), 6 TDs

Eric Ebron - 62 catches, 973 yards (15.7 YPR), 3 TDs

Zach Ertz - 69 catches, 898 yards (13.0 YPR), 6 TDs

Dustin Keller - 68 catches, 881 yards (13.0 YPR), 7 TDs

Aaron Hernandez - 68 catches, 850 yards (12.5 YPR), 5 TDs

Heath Miller - 70 catches, 835 yards (11.9 YPR), 6 TDs

Todd Heap - 55 catches, 832 yards (15.1 YPR), 3 TDs

Tyler Eifert - 63 catches, 803 yards (12.7 YPR), 5 TDs

Dallas Clark - 43 catches, 742 yards (17.3 YPR), 4 TDs

Kellen Winslow - 57 catches, 726 yards (12.7 YPR), 8 TDs

Tony Gonzalez - 44 catches, 699 yards (15.9 YPR), 5 TDs

Rob Gronkowski - 47 catches, 672 yards (14.3 YPR), 10 TDs

Jordan Reed - 45 catches, 559 yards (12.4 YPR), 3 TDs

Jeremy Shockey - 40 catches, 519 yards (13.0 YPR), 7 TDs

Jason Witten - 39 catches, 493 yards (12.6 YPR), 5 TDs

Owen Daniels - 25 catches, 391 yards (15.6 YPR), 2 TDs

Jimmy Graham - 17 catches, 213 yards (12.5 YPR), 5 TDs

The TDs are a little low, but looking at this list it's clear that even elite college TEs don't tend to score a lot of TDs. Ebron's yardage and YPR are both excellent. Near the top of the list. I think it's a bit harsh to say he didn't dominate in college when his stats look pretty favorable even stacked up against the best TEs of the past decade. He even had 625 yards at 15.6 YPR as a sophomore, so it's not like he was some one year fluke.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I think Bloom is dead on with Ebron. People may be playing connect the dots a bit too much.

He is not the same guy as Graham and he has very legit players that are going to scrape off layers of his opportunity. In the RZ, Fauria is there. Is calvin going to see a noted decrease in order to feed the targets to Ebron? Pettigrew is still there, for whatever it is worth, for whatever amount of time.

Bush and Bell are always threats to take some of that short stuff.

And, they just added a legit 2nd Wr.

To me, I see lots of spread it around type play and that usually isn't conducive to TE stardom. What they have in New Orleans is an unnatural love from Brees to Graham and Graham has shown he can go get that ball. I'm not sure I see the thing in Ebron. I think we have a Jared Cook/Greg Olsen on our hands. Sure, he will do it sometimes. He will get what's left open for him. He will show athleticism. But he's not a guy you have to say "if we don't specifically plan for him, he will destroy us."

In a dynasty league I'm not sure that you should be of the mindset that when you draft a TE, he's going to be productive as a rookie - it just doesn't happen all that often.

So with that said, why are we discounting Ebron based on the presense of a 29 year old RB, a 28 yeard old RB, a 30+ mediocre TE and a project TE?

That's a good point, really for all of these players - and that's where i come back to Ebron not dominating the way his tools and draft pick would lead you to think he would at UNC (especially in the red zone)

I don't see a lot of merit in the underachiever angle. He had 973 receiving yards at 15.7 YPR last season. Both of those figures are off the charts for a college TE. Amaro was the only TE in the country with more yards (1352), but he had a lower YPR (12.8) and played in a much friendlier offense. Texas Tech had 714 pass attempts last season compared to 453 for North Carolina. So Amaro had 39% more yards on a team that threw the ball 58% more often.

Compare Ebron's best yardage season with the best college season for some notable NFL TEs:

Dennis Pitta - 83 catches, 1083 yards (13.0 YPR), 6 TDs

Eric Ebron - 62 catches, 973 yards (15.7 YPR), 3 TDs

Zach Ertz - 69 catches, 898 yards (13.0 YPR), 6 TDs

Dustin Keller - 68 catches, 881 yards (13.0 YPR), 7 TDs

Aaron Hernandez - 68 catches, 850 yards (12.5 YPR), 5 TDs

Heath Miller - 70 catches, 835 yards (11.9 YPR), 6 TDs

Todd Heap - 55 catches, 832 yards (15.1 YPR), 3 TDs

Tyler Eifert - 63 catches, 803 yards (12.7 YPR), 5 TDs

Dallas Clark - 43 catches, 742 yards (17.3 YPR), 4 TDs

Kellen Winslow - 57 catches, 726 yards (12.7 YPR), 8 TDs

Tony Gonzalez - 44 catches, 699 yards (15.9 YPR), 5 TDs

Rob Gronkowski - 47 catches, 672 yards (14.3 YPR), 10 TDs

Jordan Reed - 45 catches, 559 yards (12.4 YPR), 3 TDs

Jeremy Shockey - 40 catches, 519 yards (13.0 YPR), 7 TDs

Jason Witten - 39 catches, 493 yards (12.6 YPR), 5 TDs

Owen Daniels - 25 catches, 391 yards (15.6 YPR), 2 TDs

Jimmy Graham - 17 catches, 213 yards (12.5 YPR), 5 TDs

The TDs are a little low, but looking at this list it's clear that even elite college TEs don't tend to score a lot of TDs. Ebron's yardage and YPR are both excellent. Near the top of the list. I think it's a bit harsh to say he didn't dominate in college when his stats look pretty favorable even stacked up against the best TEs of the past decade. He even had 625 yards at 15.6 YPR as a sophomore, so it's not like he was some one year fluke.

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I guess I'm just not seeing Freeman ahead of Sankey. I don't mind Sankey at 10 (I personally have him a bit higher in leagues where I must start 2 RBs), but I just can't see taking Freeman ahead of him.

I won't go to the mat telling you not to take Sankey over Freeman. They are right next to each other in my rankings. The main takeaway should be don't reach for Sankey in top 5 and snap up Freeman in the second

Sankey is in a class of his own this year. There is no other back with a clearer path to 15+ touches per game.

 

[EBF]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

 

[ShaHBucks]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:

"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

 

[ebsteelers]

Just got Seastrunk in the 5th round of a rookie draft..

Bonus!

 

[cstu]

My eyes could be failing me or they are intentional snubs....

I don't see Fiedorowicz

Fiedorowicz is nothing special at TE and they just signed Graham long term. Ryan Griffin is also still there, oh and they don't have a QB. I only carry development FF TEs when they have TE1 upside. Don't see that in CJF.

He's playing the 'Y' position in O'Brien's offense (same as Gronkowski) and was called a 'poor man's Gronkowski' by Greg Cosell.

He also seems to be doing well at OTA's:

Patrick D. Starr of State of the Texans was impressed by Fiedorowicz during OTAs.

The rookie tight end out of Iowa has been very impressive with this group of veterans. His versatility has been on display and as OTAs has progressed he has shown he can work inline, outside or in motion. His overall skill set gives the offense a new wrinkle that could give every offensive set he is in the option of run or pass effectively. Not known as a pass catcher in college, Fiedorowicz is a natural pass catcher and can create mismatches in the middle of the field like Texans linebacker are finding out right now.

 

[Bojang0301]

Just got Seastrunk in the 5th round of a rookie draft..

Bonus!

I got him in the 6th in a PPR that has devalued RB a great deal since we can go 1RB, 4WR. That being said after ignoring RB all draft I was enamored to get him there. Him and Tre Mason I wish I had targeted more. Both are physical specimans, who may be limited by their football acumen, that have huge upsides if they put the pieces together.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think Bloom is dead on with Ebron. People may be playing connect the dots a bit too much. He is not the same guy as Graham and he has very legit players that are going to scrape off layers of his opportunity. In the RZ, Fauria is there. Is calvin going to see a noted decrease in order to feed the targets to Ebron? Pettigrew is still there, for whatever it is worth, for whatever amount of time.

Six reasons why Ebron will be overrated in this year's draft:

Calvin Johnson

Golden Tate

Reggie Bush

Joique Bell

Brandon Pettigrew

Joseph Fauria

I know that Detroit throws the ball a ton. But looking at that roster of skill players, there are plenty of pass-catchers in this offense. I think people that reach for Ebron are going to be disappointed.

 

[Biabreakable]

Players drafted between 1936 and 2014, played TE, in the 1st round, between the 1st and 32nd pick
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1936&year_max=2014&type=&round_min=1&round_max=1&slot_min=1&slot_max=32&league_id=&team_id=&pos=TE&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all#drafts::3


1 1960 1 1 Billy Cannon TE RAM 1960 1970 2 2 9 53 133 28 602 2455 17 236 3656 47 LSU
2 1961 1 5 Mike Ditka HOF TE CHI 1961 1972 2 5 8 56 158 78 4 4 0 854 11624 86 Pittsburgh
3 1972 1 5 Riley Odoms TE DEN 1972 1983 2 4 10 54 153 134 25 211 2 396 5755 41 Houston
4 1973 1 6 Charle Young TE PHI 1973 1985 1 3 10 46 187 142 16 80 1 418 5106 27 USC
5 2004 1 6 Kellen Winslow TE CLE 2004 2013 0 1 5 36 105 83 1 7 0 469 5236 25 Miami (FL)
6 2006 1 6 Vernon Davis TE SFO 2006 2013 0 2 8 41 119 117 5 11 0 397 5201 53 Maryland
7 1963 1 7 Pat Richter TE WAS 1963 1970 0 0 8 22 103 1 1 -9 0 99 1315 14 Wisconsin
8 1969 1 7 Ted Kwalick TE SFO 1969 1977 1 3 3 30 108 43 19 175 0 168 2570 23 Penn St.
9 1973 1 7 Paul Seymour TE BUF 1973 1977 0 0 5 11 69 68 62 818 3 Michigan
10 1974 1 7 J.V. Cain TE STL 1974 1977 0 0 2 12 55 37 76 1014 9 Colorado
11 1978 1 7 Ken MacAfee TE SFO 1978 1979 0 0 2 5 29 25 46 471 5 Notre Dame
12 1980 1 7 Junior Miller TE ATL 1980 1984 0 2 3 14 71 45 3 0 0 122 1409 14 Nebraska
13 1963 1 9 Tom Hutchinson TE CLE 1963 1966 0 0 0 5 47 0 19 409 2 Kentucky
14 1972 1 9 Jerome Barkum TE NYJ 1972 1983 0 1 10 44 158 136 3 -3 0 326 4789 40 Jackson St.
15 1995 1 9 Kyle Brady TE NYJ 1995 2007 0 0 13 26 197 175 343 3519 25 Penn St.
16 1996 1 9 Rickey Dudley TE OAK 1996 2004 0 0 5 24 108 87 2 -9 0 221 3024 33 Ohio St.
17 2014 1 10 Eric Ebron TE DET 0 0 0 North Carolina
18 1960 1 11 Monty Stickles TE SFO 1960 1968 0 0 9 30 115 90 222 3199 16 Notre Dame
19 1983 1 12 Tony Hunter TE BUF 1983 1986 0 0 2 11 47 22 4 28 0 134 1501 9 Notre Dame
20 1979 1 13 Kellen Winslow HOF TE SDG 1979 1987 3 5 7 62 109 94 541 6741 45 Missouri
21 1988 1 13 Keith Jackson TE PHI 1988 1996 3 5 7 43 129 105 441 5283 49 Oklahoma
22 1997 1 13 Tony Gonzalez TE KAN 1997 2013 6 14 16 97 270 254 2 14 0 1325 15127 111 California
23 1966 1 14 Milt Morin TE CLE 1966 1975 0 2 8 48 129 64 5 41 0 271 4208 16 Massachusetts
24 1981 1 14 Willie Scott TE KAN 1981 1988 0 0 3 6 98 42 1 1 0 89 766 15 South Carolina
25 1992 1 14 Derek Brown TE NYG 1992 1999 0 0 1 4 105 33 43 401 1 Notre Dame
26 2000 1 14 Bubba Franks TE GNB 2000 2008 0 3 6 18 122 98 262 2347 32 Miami (FL)
27 2002 1 14 Jeremy Shockey TE NYG 2002 2011 1 4 10 48 136 129 1 6 0 547 6143 37 Miami (FL)
28 1985 1 15 Ethan Horton TE KAN 1985 1994 0 1 5 22 116 80 79 241 3 212 2360 17 North Carolina
29 1992 1 15 Johnny Mitchell TE NYJ 1992 1996 0 0 2 16 57 43 159 2103 16 Nebraska
30 1970 1 16 Rich McGeorge TE GNB 1970 1978 0 0 7 24 116 87 1 3 0 175 2370 13 Elon
31 1975 1 16 Russ Francis TE NWE 1975 1988 0 3 11 45 167 148 2 12 0 393 5262 40 Oregon
32 1974 1 18 Reuben Gant TE BUF 1974 1980 0 0 3 16 101 50 1 14 0 127 1850 15 Oklahoma St.
33 1973 1 20 Billy Joe DuPree TE DAL 1973 1983 0 3 8 40 159 102 26 178 1 267 3565 41 Michigan St.
34 1984 1 20 David Lewis TE DET 1984 1987 0 0 1 7 47 32 60 731 8 California
35 1993 1 20 Irv Smith TE NOR 1993 1999 0 0 5 14 95 76 183 1788 15 Notre Dame
36 2009 1 20 Brandon Pettigrew TE DET 2009 2013 0 0 5 20 71 68 284 2828 16 Oklahoma St.
37 1969 1 21 Bob Klein TE RAM 1969 1979 0 0 9 29 145 120 4 14 0 219 2687 23 USC
38 1990 1 21 Eric Green TE PIT 1990 1999 0 2 6 32 120 103 362 4390 36 Liberty
39 2002 1 21 Daniel Graham TE NWE 2002 2012 0 0 7 19 148 117 224 2490 25 Colorado
40 2010 1 21 Jermaine Gresham TE CIN 2010 2013 0 2 4 19 59 52 218 2262 19 Oklahoma
41 2013 1 21 Tyler Eifert TE CIN 2013 2013 0 0 1 4 15 15 39 445 2 Notre Dame
42 1977 1 22 Mike Cobb TE CIN 1977 1981 0 0 1 1 62 19 11 134 0 Michigan St.
43 1997 1 22 David LaFleur TE DAL 1997 2000 0 0 3 7 60 44 85 729 12 LSU
44 1978 1 23 Ozzie Newsome HOF TE CLE 1978 1990 1 3 13 59 198 191 18 135 2 662 7980 47 Alabama
45 1970 1 24 Raymond Chester TE OAK 1970 1981 0 4 10 53 172 131 5 9 0 364 5013 48 Morgan St.
46 2003 1 24 Dallas Clark TE IND 2003 2013 1 1 8 51 143 118 4 40 0 505 5665 53 Iowa
47 1978 1 25 Reese McCall TE BAL 1978 1985 0 0 3 10 117 56 94 1366 12 Auburn
48 1995 1 27 Mark Bruener TE PIT 1995 2008 0 0 10 10 188 139 152 1333 18 Washington
49 2000 1 27 Anthony Becht TE NYJ 2000 2011 0 0 9 12 167 132 188 1537 21 West Virginia
50 1976 1 28 Bennie Cunningham TE PIT 1976 1985 0 0 6 29 118 80 202 2879 20 Clemson
51 2002 1 28 Jerramy Stevens TE SEA 2002 2010 0 0 2 18 121 42 202 2217 22 Washington
52 2006 1 28 Marcedes Lewis TE JAX 2006 2013 0 1 7 29 120 106 297 3583 25 UCLA
53 2005 1 30 Heath Miller TE PIT 2005 2013 0 2 9 40 137 136 1 6 0 466 5273 40 Virginia
54 2008 1 30 Dustin Keller TE NYJ 2008 2013 0 0 3 23 72 49 1 7 0 241 2876 17 Purdue
55 2001 1 31 Todd Heap TE BAL 2001 2012 0 2 8 43 145 131 8 61 0 499 5869 42 Arizona St.
56 2007 1 31 Greg Olsen TE CHI 2007 2013 0 0 5 32 110 84 381 4180 36 Miami (FL)
57 2004 1 32 Ben Watson TE NWE 2004 2013 0 0 8 31 131 95 2 10 0 340 4002 30 Georgia

 

[msommer]

Does anyone have the top five or ten seasons for rookie tight ends in the past 20 years or so?

 

[cstu]

Does anyone have the top five or ten seasons for rookie tight ends in the past 20 years or so?

Since 1990:

Rk 	Player 	Year 	Age 	Draft 	Tm 	Lg 	G 	GS 	FantPt 	Cmp 	Att 	Yds 	TD 	Int 	Att 	Yds 	TD 	Rec 	Yds 	TD 	Fmb5 	J Shockey 	2002 	22 	1-14 	NYG 	NFL 	15 	14 	98.4 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	74 	894 	2 	310 	Heath Miller 	2005 	23 	1-30 	PIT 	        NFL 	16 	15 	81.9 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	39 	459 	6 	011 	Eric Green 	1990 	23 	1-21 	PIT 	        NFL 	13 	6 	79.7 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	34 	387 	7 	116 	Dustin Keller 	2008 	24 	1-30 	NYJ 	        NFL 	16 	6 	71.5 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	48 	535 	3 	017 	J Gresham 	2010 	22 	1-21 	CIN 	        NFL 	15 	10 	71.1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	52 	471 	4 	226 	R Dudley   	1996 	24 	1-9 	        OAK 	NFL 	16 	15 	61.6 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	34 	386 	4 	129 	Tyler Eifert 	2013 	23 	1-21 	CIN 	        NFL 	15 	15 	56.5 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	39 	445 	2 	032 	Greg Olsen 	2007 	22 	1-31 	CHI 	        NFL 	14 	4 	53.1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	39 	391 	2 	038 	T Gonzalez 	1997 	21 	1-13 	KAN 	NFL 	16 	0 	50.8 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	33 	368 	2 	0

 

[msommer]

So other than Shockey, rookie TEs don't really do much to help your FF team. Most of us kind of knew that but nice to get proof

 

[jurb26]

Does anyone have the top five or ten seasons for rookie tight ends in the past 20 years or so?

Since 1990:

Rk 	Player 	Year 	Age 	Draft 	Tm 	Lg 	G 	GS 	FantPt 	Cmp 	Att 	Yds 	TD 	Int 	Att 	Yds 	TD 	Rec 	Yds 	TD 	Fmb5 	J Shockey 	2002 	22 	1-14 	NYG 	NFL 	15 	14 	98.4 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	74 	894 	2 	310 	Heath Miller 	2005 	23 	1-30 	PIT 	        NFL 	16 	15 	81.9 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	39 	459 	6 	011 	Eric Green 	1990 	23 	1-21 	PIT 	        NFL 	13 	6 	79.7 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	34 	387 	7 	116 	Dustin Keller 	2008 	24 	1-30 	NYJ 	        NFL 	16 	6 	71.5 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	48 	535 	3 	017 	J Gresham 	2010 	22 	1-21 	CIN 	        NFL 	15 	10 	71.1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	52 	471 	4 	226 	R Dudley   	1996 	24 	1-9 	        OAK 	NFL 	16 	15 	61.6 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	34 	386 	4 	129 	Tyler Eifert 	2013 	23 	1-21 	CIN 	        NFL 	15 	15 	56.5 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	39 	445 	2 	032 	Greg Olsen 	2007 	22 	1-31 	CHI 	        NFL 	14 	4 	53.1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	39 	391 	2 	038 	T Gonzalez 	1997 	21 	1-13 	KAN 	NFL 	16 	0 	50.8 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	33 	368 	2 	0

Those numbers can't be right. Eifert wasn't even the best rookie TE last year. Not even close, actually.

 

[LususV]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:

"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

Are you writing off Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Quinton Patton as 'done' after their rookie seasons?

 

[cstu]

Does anyone have the top five or ten seasons for rookie tight ends in the past 20 years or so?

Since 1990:

Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS FantPt Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Fmb5 J Shockey 2002 22 1-14 NYG NFL 15 14 98.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 894 2 310 Heath Miller 2005 23 1-30 PIT NFL 16 15 81.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 459 6 011 Eric Green 1990 23 1-21 PIT NFL 13 6 79.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 387 7 116 Dustin Keller 2008 24 1-30 NYJ NFL 16 6 71.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 535 3 017 J Gresham 2010 22 1-21 CIN NFL 15 10 71.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 471 4 226 R Dudley 1996 24 1-9 OAK NFL 16 15 61.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 386 4 129 Tyler Eifert 2013 23 1-21 CIN NFL 15 15 56.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 445 2 032 Greg Olsen 2007 22 1-31 CHI NFL 14 4 53.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 391 2 038 T Gonzalez 1997 21 1-13 KAN NFL 16 0 50.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 368 2 0

Those numbers can't be right. Eifert wasn't even the best rookie TE last year. Not even close, actually.

Whoops, I thought you wanted 1st round TE's.

 

[jurb26]

That could very well be what he was looking for, cstu. It may be more relevant to Ebron anyway.

 

[Buckna]

My eyes could be failing me or they are intentional snubs....

I don't see Fiedorowicz

Fiedorowicz is nothing special at TE and they just signed Graham long term. Ryan Griffin is also still there, oh and they don't have a QB. I only carry development FF TEs when they have TE1 upside. Don't see that in CJF.

He's playing the 'Y' position in O'Brien's offense (same as Gronkowski) and was called a 'poor man's Gronkowski' by Greg Cosell.

He also seems to be doing well at OTA's:

Patrick D. Starr of State of the Texans was impressed by Fiedorowicz during OTAs.

The rookie tight end out of Iowa has been very impressive with this group of veterans. His versatility has been on display and as OTAs has progressed he has shown he can work inline, outside or in motion. His overall skill set gives the offense a new wrinkle that could give every offensive set he is in the option of run or pass effectively. Not known as a pass catcher in college, Fiedorowicz is a natural pass catcher and can create mismatches in the middle of the field like Texans linebacker are finding out right now.

Plus Graham only signed a 3 year cheap deal. There's significant cap savings to cutting him in year 2 or 3.

 

[ShaHBucks]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

Are you writing off Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Quinton Patton as 'done' after their rookie seasons?

I didn't mention writing anyone off. It was just an example of how good college players have outliner games on occasion. Ebron was overdrafted in the NFL, so he will get hyped up around here by default because of draft position alone. He had 3 whole TDs on a team that threw close to 30 TDs and had a fringe NFL prospect at QB. Fraud

 

[LususV]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

Are you writing off Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Quinton Patton as 'done' after their rookie seasons?

I didn't mention writing anyone off. It was just an example of how good college players have outliner games on occasion. Ebron was overdrafted in the NFL, so he will get hyped up around here by default because of draft position alone. He had 3 whole TDs on a team that threw close to 30 TDs and had a fringe NFL prospect at QB. Fraud

I tend to view 'big-game-ability' as a necessary but not sufficient quality; some players will never hit 100 yards (Emmanuel Sanders)... ever. Some players (Michael Floyd) might only have one MONSTER game in a season, but it's a potential harbinger of future value.

I haven't studied college football enough to say whether that ability in college translates to the pros with regularity or not.

 

[Biabreakable]

Here are the top TE from 1979-2008 ranked by their career approximate value from PFR-

1 13 97TE Tony Gonzalez 97
UDFA 02TE Antonio Gates 85
7 192 90TE Shannon Sharpe 80
3 69 03TE Jason Witten 70
1 13 79TE Kellen Winslow 62
1 24 03TE Dallas Clark 51
5 135 86TE Brent Jones 50
1 14 02TE Jeremy Shockey 48
7 179 82TE Steve Jordan 48
6 158 85TE Jay Novacek 45
1 31 01TE Todd Heap 43
6 160 93TE Frank Wycheck 43
2 56 89TE Wesley Walls 43
1 13 88TE Keith Jackson 43
5 124 91TE Ben Coates 42
1 6 06TE Vernon Davis 41
2 35 01TE Alge Crumpler 41
3 82 82TE Rodney Holman 41
1 30 05TE Heath Miller 40
4 100 85TE Mark Bavaro 39
1 6 04TE Kellen Winslow JR 36

21 TE since 1979 have had careers over 36AV 7 of them were drafted similarly high as Ebron who is currently the 17th highest TE drafted in history.

Here are the next best TEs. Most of these guys had a good season or two but not quite up to the above standard for a career.

2 48 95TE Ken Dilger 35
3 81 04TE Chris Cooley 34
4 114 02TE Randy McMichael 33
4 102 90TE Jackie Harris 33
1 21 90TE Eric Green 32
1 31 07TE Greg Olsen 32
1 32 04TE Ben Watson 31
5 162 07TE Brent Celek 30
1 28 06TE Mercedes Lewis 29

From the previous list I posted of 57 TE drafted in the 1st round since 1936, 26 of them had a career AV of 29 or higher.

 

[msommer]

That could very well be what he was looking for, cstu. It may be more relevant to Ebron anyway.

Na, I actually wanted rookies in general. But the conclusion remains the same?

 

[Biabreakable]

Going through the top TE from 1979 on, most of them do not do much in their rookie season. Many of them break out in their 2nd season but some of them not until their 3rd to 5th season. Some of them needed a team change before they broke out. Others like Kellen Winslow jr had an injury during their rookie season but played very well in their 2nd season. So if not injured as a rookie, he may have had a rookie season nearly as good as his 2nd year was (89rec 875yds).

Here are the TE who did really well in their rookie seasons I found-

Mike Ditka 56rec 1076yds 12TD

Keith Jackson 81rec 869yds 6TD

Jeremy Shockey 74rec 894yds 2TD

 

[cstu]

Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS FantPt CmpAtt Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Fmb

2 RGronkowski 2010 21 2-42 NWE NFL 16 11 113.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 546 10 1

3 Cam Cleeland 1998 23 2-40 NOR NFL 16 16 103.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 684 6 1

5 J Shockey 2002 22 1-14 NYG NFL 15 14 98.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 894 2 3

6 A Hernandez 2010 21 4-113 NWE NFL 14 7 97.0 0 0 0 0 0 3 47 0 45 563 6 0

7 John Carlson 2008 24 2-38 SEA NFL 16 9 92.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 627 5 0

8 Ken Dilger 1995 24 2-48 IND NFL 16 13 87.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 635 4 0

9 Tim Wright 2013 23 TAM NFL 16 8 87.3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 54 571 5 0

10 Heath Miller 2005 23 1-30 PIT NFL 16 15 81.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 459 6 0

11 Eric Green 1990 23 1-21 PIT NFL 13 6 79.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 387 7 1

12 Tony Moeaki 2010 23 3-93 KAN NFL 15 15 73.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 556 3 0

13 Zach Ertz 2013 23 2-35 PHI NFL 16 2 72.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 469 4 0

14 R McMichael 2002 23 4-114 MIA NFL 16 16 72.3 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 39 485 4 1

15 Jordan Reed 2013 23 3-85 WAS NFL 9 4 71.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 18 0 45 499 3 0

16 Dustin Keller 2008 24 1-30 NYJ NFL 16 6 71.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 535 3 0

17 J Gresham 2010 22 1-21 CIN NFL 15 10 71.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 471 4 2

18 Dwayne Allen 2012 22 3-64 IND NFL 16 16 70.6 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 45 521 3 1

19 Chris Cooley 2004 22 3-81 WAS NFL 16 9 67.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 314 6 0

20 Joseph Fauria 2013 23 DET NFL 16 2 66.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 207 7 0

 

[Bob Magaw]

Going through the top TE from 1979 on, most of them do not do much in their rookie season. Many of them break out in their 2nd season but some of them not until their 3rd to 5th season. Some of them needed a team change before they broke out. Others like Kellen Winslow jr had an injury during their rookie season but played very well in their 2nd season. So if not injured as a rookie, he may have had a rookie season nearly as good as his 2nd year was (89rec 875yds).

Here are the TE who did really well in their rookie seasons I found-

Mike Ditka 56rec 1076yds 12TD

Keith Jackson 81rec 869yds 6TD

Jeremy Shockey 74rec 894yds 2TD

Ditka - 53 years ago

Jackson - 26 years ago

Shockey -12 years ago

Definitely bucking history looking for rookie TE production.

 

[msommer]

Going through the top TE from 1979 on, most of them do not do much in their rookie season. Many of them break out in their 2nd season but some of them not until their 3rd to 5th season. Some of them needed a team change before they broke out. Others like Kellen Winslow jr had an injury during their rookie season but played very well in their 2nd season. So if not injured as a rookie, he may have had a rookie season nearly as good as his 2nd year was (89rec 875yds).

Here are the TE who did really well in their rookie seasons I found-

Mike Ditka 56rec 1076yds 12TD

Keith Jackson 81rec 869yds 6TD

Jeremy Shockey 74rec 894yds 2TD

Ditka - 53 years ago

Jackson - 26 years ago

Shockey -12 years ago

Definitely bucking history looking for rookie TE production.

But the frequency s decreasing, actually we are overdue!

 

[cloppbeast]

First of all, thanks for your work putting this out there. For the most part I agree - especially your high rankings for Davante Adams and Marqise Lee (stick to your guns!), and your low ranking for Jordan Matthews.

Davanta Freeman serves as a topic of discussion, though. First of all, I don't like the player. In fact, neither do you, as you had him ranked 26th pre-draft. Generally, if you don't like a player, the landing spot shouldn't matter - especially for a 4th round RB. Teams don't get attached to their fourth round running backs. Although at the moment he is the only player in Jackson's rear view, the Buddha says things change. Look no further than Jackson's former home in St Louis to see how quickly a back field can get muddled by mid rounders. It would not surprise me in the least to see a few more 2nd-5th round running backs on the Atlanta roster next season.

Admittedly, the same can be said for any of these guys - but, I also wouldn't put them at the end of the first round either. Wait till the middle-late second.

 

[Biabreakable]

Going through the top TE from 1979 on, most of them do not do much in their rookie season. Many of them break out in their 2nd season but some of them not until their 3rd to 5th season. Some of them needed a team change before they broke out. Others like Kellen Winslow jr had an injury during their rookie season but played very well in their 2nd season. So if not injured as a rookie, he may have had a rookie season nearly as good as his 2nd year was (89rec 875yds).

Here are the TE who did really well in their rookie seasons I found-

Mike Ditka 56rec 1076yds 12TD

Keith Jackson 81rec 869yds 6TD

Jeremy Shockey 74rec 894yds 2TD

Ditka - 53 years ago

Jackson - 26 years ago

Shockey -12 years ago

Definitely bucking history looking for rookie TE production.

But the frequency s decreasing, actually we are overdue!

It is historically extremely rare for a TE to put up big receiving numbers as a rookie. Even more rare than a TE being drafted in the top 10 of the draft (which is also very rare).

If I were to pick a player/situation to have the best odds of producing good numbers as a rookie, Ebrons situation looks better than any TE prospect since Vernon Davis (who took awhile to put up good numbers) or Winslow jr who had a motorcycle accident his rookie season but had over 80 receptions the following year, which was essentially a rookie season for him.

Both of these players walked in to a poor team and QB situations, Ebron walks into an already developed passing offense that has used TE as the focal point of it, with stated intention of doing the same with Ebron.

If the focus is dynasty (which this thread is) the onus should not be on what the player can produce for your team as a rookie but what they can produce for your team in their career.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am wrapping up Washington Redskins projections right now and I was looking at Jordan Reeds numbers on a per game and per snap basis.


TE Reed 9gm 379os 33.1% 1ra 18ypc 59tg 45rec (76.27% catch rate) 499yds 11.1ypc 3TD

Pro rated to 16 games 42os/gm 673os 6.55tg/gm 105tg 80rec .33TD/gm 5.3 TD
.156tg/snap


From ctsu's list of 18 best rookie TE seasons in the time frame he used I averaged the results to form a baseline for Ebron on what could be considered a "good" season for a rookie TE so we can see if he pass this threshold or not as a rookie.

42 546 10
54 684 6
74 894 2
45 563 6
55 627 5
42 635 4
54 571 5
39 459 6
34 387 7
47 556 3
36 469 4
39 485 4
45 499 3
48 535 3
52 471 4
45 521 3
37 314 6
18 207 7

44.77rec 523.5yds 4.88TD

So if Ebron exceeds 45rec 524yds 5TD as a rookie that would qualify as above the average of these best rookie TE seasons.

I think he will.

With changes in the NFL since 2004 have been very favorable to players playing TE and their involvement in passing offenses keeps rising. While this does keep setting the bar a bit higher from a VBD perspective it is also becoming more common for TE to produce those kinds of numbers than it has been in the past, as evidenced by the 3TE who qualified just last season.

 

[ShaHBucks]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

Are you writing off Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Quinton Patton as 'done' after their rookie seasons?

I didn't mention writing anyone off. It was just an example of how good college players have outliner games on occasion. Ebron was overdrafted in the NFL, so he will get hyped up around here by default because of draft position alone. He had 3 whole TDs on a team that threw close to 30 TDs and had a fringe NFL prospect at QB. Fraud

I tend to view 'big-game-ability' as a necessary but not sufficient quality; some players will never hit 100 yards (Emmanuel Sanders)... ever. Some players (Michael Floyd) might only have one MONSTER game in a season, but it's a potential harbinger of future value.

I haven't studied college football enough to say whether that ability in college translates to the pros with regularity or not.

http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/8611/observations-from-lions-minicamp-and-offseason

Conversely, Eric Ebron had what seemed to be a rough indoctrination to the NFL. He struggled with dropped passes throughout OTAs and mandatory minicamp, including two drops on the final day of practice. Drops were an issue for him at North Carolina, so to see him continue this trend during his first few weeks as a professional should be at least a little bit concerning to the Lions. That said, it is still early and he is clearly still learning everything, so it could be an issue of just overthinking on routes and not letting instincts take over. This will be a situation worth monitoring during training camp.

A TE that struggles catching the football gets paired with a QB who throws 110 mph. This should be great. Don't say you weren't warned guys.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Going through the top TE from 1979 on, most of them do not do much in their rookie season. Many of them break out in their 2nd season but some of them not until their 3rd to 5th season. Some of them needed a team change before they broke out. Others like Kellen Winslow jr had an injury during their rookie season but played very well in their 2nd season. So if not injured as a rookie, he may have had a rookie season nearly as good as his 2nd year was (89rec 875yds).

Here are the TE who did really well in their rookie seasons I found-

Mike Ditka 56rec 1076yds 12TD

Keith Jackson 81rec 869yds 6TD

Jeremy Shockey 74rec 894yds 2TD

Ditka - 53 years ago

Jackson - 26 years ago

Shockey -12 years ago

Definitely bucking history looking for rookie TE production.

But the frequency s decreasing, actually we are overdue!

You don't need to go back decades to see rookie TE production. Jordan Reed had 500 receiving yards in just 9 games last season, and undrafted rookie TE Tim Wright had 50+ receptions. As TEs are used more and more similarly to WRs, so will their production, including their rookie season production.

 

[EBF]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

Are you writing off Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Quinton Patton as 'done' after their rookie seasons?

I didn't mention writing anyone off. It was just an example of how good college players have outliner games on occasion. Ebron was overdrafted in the NFL, so he will get hyped up around here by default because of draft position alone. He had 3 whole TDs on a team that threw close to 30 TDs and had a fringe NFL prospect at QB. Fraud

I tend to view 'big-game-ability' as a necessary but not sufficient quality; some players will never hit 100 yards (Emmanuel Sanders)... ever. Some players (Michael Floyd) might only have one MONSTER game in a season, but it's a potential harbinger of future value.

I haven't studied college football enough to say whether that ability in college translates to the pros with regularity or not.

http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/8611/observations-from-lions-minicamp-and-offseason

Conversely, Eric Ebron had what seemed to be a rough indoctrination to the NFL. He struggled with dropped passes throughout OTAs and mandatory minicamp, including two drops on the final day of practice. Drops were an issue for him at North Carolina, so to see him continue this trend during his first few weeks as a professional should be at least a little bit concerning to the Lions. That said, it is still early and he is clearly still learning everything, so it could be an issue of just overthinking on routes and not letting instincts take over. This will be a situation worth monitoring during training camp.

A TE that struggles catching the football gets paired with a QB who throws 110 mph. This should be great. Don't say you weren't warned guys.

Not exactly breaking news that Ebron drops passes. It's kind of a known issue with him.

He finished #2 among all college TEs in receiving yards last season. As long as the production is there at the end of the season, a 2x average drop rate won't really matter much to me. TO always seemed to have spotty hands, but at the end of the season the numbers were there regardless.

 

[steveski]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

Are you writing off Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Quinton Patton as 'done' after their rookie seasons?

I didn't mention writing anyone off. It was just an example of how good college players have outliner games on occasion. Ebron was overdrafted in the NFL, so he will get hyped up around here by default because of draft position alone. He had 3 whole TDs on a team that threw close to 30 TDs and had a fringe NFL prospect at QB. Fraud

I tend to view 'big-game-ability' as a necessary but not sufficient quality; some players will never hit 100 yards (Emmanuel Sanders)... ever. Some players (Michael Floyd) might only have one MONSTER game in a season, but it's a potential harbinger of future value.

I haven't studied college football enough to say whether that ability in college translates to the pros with regularity or not.

http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/8611/observations-from-lions-minicamp-and-offseason

Conversely, Eric Ebron had what seemed to be a rough indoctrination to the NFL. He struggled with dropped passes throughout OTAs and mandatory minicamp, including two drops on the final day of practice. Drops were an issue for him at North Carolina, so to see him continue this trend during his first few weeks as a professional should be at least a little bit concerning to the Lions. That said, it is still early and he is clearly still learning everything, so it could be an issue of just overthinking on routes and not letting instincts take over. This will be a situation worth monitoring during training camp.

A TE that struggles catching the football gets paired with a QB who throws 110 mph. This should be great. Don't say you weren't warned guys.

Not exactly breaking news that Ebron drops passes. It's kind of a known issue with him.

He finished #2 among all college TEs in receiving yards last season. As long as the production is there at the end of the season, a 2x average drop rate won't really matter much to me. TO always seemed to have spotty hands, but at the end of the season the numbers were there regardless.

Drops may be a little more significant when he's the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game. If you're the #1 guy then you have the volume to be able to afford some drops. If Calvin has a better chance of catching the ball when he has 3 guys on him than Ebron when he's wide open....then Ebron may have a problem.