Post-Draft Bloom 100 (1 Viewer)

[Slapdash]

Going through the top TE from 1979 on, most of them do not do much in their rookie season. Many of them break out in their 2nd season but some of them not until their 3rd to 5th season. Some of them needed a team change before they broke out. Others like Kellen Winslow jr had an injury during their rookie season but played very well in their 2nd season. So if not injured as a rookie, he may have had a rookie season nearly as good as his 2nd year was (89rec 875yds).

Here are the TE who did really well in their rookie seasons I found-

Mike Ditka 56rec 1076yds 12TD

Keith Jackson 81rec 869yds 6TD

Jeremy Shockey 74rec 894yds 2TD

Ditka - 53 years ago

Jackson - 26 years ago

Shockey -12 years ago

Definitely bucking history looking for rookie TE production.

But the frequency s decreasing, actually we are overdue!

You don't need to go back decades to see rookie TE production. Jordan Reed had 500 receiving yards in just 9 games last season, and undrafted rookie TE Tim Wright had 50+ receptions. As TEs are used more and more similarly to WRs, so will their production, including their rookie season production.

This guy is getting an absurdly low amount of buzz given his success last year. ASJ is a threat long term, but he seems too undervalued.

 

[cstu]

Going through the top TE from 1979 on, most of them do not do much in their rookie season. Many of them break out in their 2nd season but some of them not until their 3rd to 5th season. Some of them needed a team change before they broke out. Others like Kellen Winslow jr had an injury during their rookie season but played very well in their 2nd season. So if not injured as a rookie, he may have had a rookie season nearly as good as his 2nd year was (89rec 875yds).

Here are the TE who did really well in their rookie seasons I found-

Mike Ditka 56rec 1076yds 12TD

Keith Jackson 81rec 869yds 6TD

Jeremy Shockey 74rec 894yds 2TD

Ditka - 53 years ago

Jackson - 26 years ago

Shockey -12 years ago

Definitely bucking history looking for rookie TE production.

But the frequency s decreasing, actually we are overdue!

You don't need to go back decades to see rookie TE production. Jordan Reed had 500 receiving yards in just 9 games last season, and undrafted rookie TE Tim Wright had 50+ receptions. As TEs are used more and more similarly to WRs, so will their production, including their rookie season production.

This guy is getting an absurdly low amount of buzz given his success last year. ASJ is a threat long term, but he seems too undervalued.

With VJax, Evans, ASJ, and a healthy Martin in the mix for targets it's not a great situation for Wright, who I think benefited greatly last year from the lack of receiving options.

 

[Adam Harstad]

With VJax, Evans, ASJ, and a healthy Martin in the mix for targets it's not a great situation for Wright, who I think benefited greatly last year from the lack of receiving options.

And from the fact that he was a "Schiano man".

 

[Biabreakable]

+ Herron and Sims likely being involved as receivers as well.

I would really like to see some Tampa Bay projections as there are so many new players there now. I have done some research on them but I got stuck a bit trying to figure out what a Tedford offense will be like.

 

[Slapdash]

With VJax, Evans, ASJ, and a healthy Martin in the mix for targets it's not a great situation for Wright, who I think benefited greatly last year from the lack of receiving options.

And from the fact that he was a "Schiano man".

All true, but I would expect passing yards to rebound quite a bit too. Tampa also lost the 3rd and 4th most targeted players (Williams and Underwood), which should go to Evans. Healthy Martin probably gets around 50 more targets like in 12, but that will largely come out of the 103 targets thrown at other RBs last year.

You have a second year player who performed well last year, his first at the position, with good size and hands. Has the ability to split out into the slot and make places.

More of a redraft comment, but the projections of basically cutting his stats in half doesn't feel right. I'm more concerned about the changes of the offense as a whole or being classified as a WR than the mouths to feed in Tampa right now.

 

[ShaHBucks]

He had an outliner game vs Miami with 8 catches for 199 yards and 1 TD. Aside from that game his numbers are not eliete. He's a fraud.

Not sure if this is a serious post or not, but I never really liked the reasoning of "take away this huge game and this guy's stats would be less impressive." It's a self-serving argument. Like saying, "Ken Griffey Jr. had a horrible game except for the two pitches he hit out of the park." Big plays count. Big games count. It's about the totals, not how you got there. Adrian Peterson had 296 rushing yards against the Chargers as a rookie. Those yards count towards his end of season totals the same as any other yards would.

Great players have monster games. The fact that Ebron went off for 199 yards in one game doesn't look like a red flag to me, but rather another confirmation of his rare talent level. How many TEs ever have a game like that in their college careers? Look at his big plays in that game:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9840976http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841189http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9841560

Those are not easy plays that any TE could make. The first one requires pretty good speed and the third one is an amazing catch. He "earned" those yards.

I don't like the idea of taking out one game in order to tweak the stats so they fit your argument better. But if you're going to do that, it would only be fair if you did the same for every other TE. I'm sure Amaro's stats would look worse than they do now if you took out his best game. Same with ASJ. Or for that matter, Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. Saying that a player's stats would be a lot worse if you took out his best game is ultimately not a very damning or meaningful observation.

I already seen all of his cut ups. Other off-the-chart games off the top of my head:"4th round gold mine" Quinton Patton - 21 catches. 233 yards, and 4 TDs vs T A&M in 12'. Should he have went as high as Austin?

Tavon Austin - 21 carries, 344 yards, 2 rushing TDs vs Ok. Speak of the devil...

Dexter McCluster - 25 carries, 282 yards, and 4 TDs vs Tenn in 09'. Do we care?

Geno Smith - 656 yards passing and 8 TDs vs Baylor. Is he great?

You can't take it away from his totals. That makes no sense. I was talking per game. Outside of that game he was just 'OK.' Any good player can have a phenomenal college game. The question is -- do they consistently have them? Was it a blip, or "a tell" of greatness?

He's straight line fast, but he can't jump and has suspect hands. Other than that he's a rare talent.

Are you writing off Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Quinton Patton as 'done' after their rookie seasons?

I didn't mention writing anyone off. It was just an example of how good college players have outliner games on occasion. Ebron was overdrafted in the NFL, so he will get hyped up around here by default because of draft position alone. He had 3 whole TDs on a team that threw close to 30 TDs and had a fringe NFL prospect at QB. Fraud

I tend to view 'big-game-ability' as a necessary but not sufficient quality; some players will never hit 100 yards (Emmanuel Sanders)... ever. Some players (Michael Floyd) might only have one MONSTER game in a season, but it's a potential harbinger of future value.

I haven't studied college football enough to say whether that ability in college translates to the pros with regularity or not.

http://espn.go.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/8611/observations-from-lions-minicamp-and-offseason

Conversely, Eric Ebron had what seemed to be a rough indoctrination to the NFL. He struggled with dropped passes throughout OTAs and mandatory minicamp, including two drops on the final day of practice. Drops were an issue for him at North Carolina, so to see him continue this trend during his first few weeks as a professional should be at least a little bit concerning to the Lions. That said, it is still early and he is clearly still learning everything, so it could be an issue of just overthinking on routes and not letting instincts take over. This will be a situation worth monitoring during training camp.

A TE that struggles catching the football gets paired with a QB who throws 110 mph. This should be great. Don't say you weren't warned guys.

Not exactly breaking news that Ebron drops passes. It's kind of a known issue with him.

He finished #2 among all college TEs in receiving yards last season. As long as the production is there at the end of the season, a 2x average drop rate won't really matter much to me. TO always seemed to have spotty hands, but at the end of the season the numbers were there regardless.

Drops may be a little more significant when he's the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game. If you're the #1 guy then you have the volume to be able to afford some drops. If Calvin has a better chance of catching the ball when he has 3 guys on him than Ebron when he's wide open....then Ebron may have a problem.

Stephen Hill could teach this guy a few things. Fraud

 

[cstu]

He's playing the 'Y' position in O'Brien's offense (same as Gronkowski) and was called a 'poor man's Gronkowski' by Greg Cosell.

He also seems to be doing well at OTA's:

Nothing special, eh Bloom?