Post-draft fantasy stock watch from Fantasy Guru (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Long article, here are some teasers.

Go to the link for the full read:

http://fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/articles/5-12-14stock.php

Post-Draft Stock Watch

Published, 5/12/14

We love it when the planets align in the NFL Draft and things shake out ideally for fantasy purposes.

But sometimes, those planets are way too far away from each other.

Consider 2014 to be one of those years.

There were some winners coming out of the draft, particularly a large group of QBs. And while there weren’t a lot of clear losers, there were an inordinate number of running backs whose values became a lot cloudier in our fantasy world, and that’s not good.

But we can only react to the marketplace presented to us every season and proceed accordingly, and you can consider this comprehensive review of the post-draft landscape – as well as my Post-Free Agency Stock Watch – as the beginning of your 2014 preparation.

[SIZE=14pt]Upgrades[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14pt]Quarterbacks [/SIZE]

Matthew Stafford (Det) – Even though I knew there was a chance Stafford could get a top skill player in the draft, I still went ahead and did his projection for 2014 before the draft kicked off, and Stafford landed at #6 at QB. And although rookie TEs tend to fall short of expectations more often than not, we have to consider the addition of stud TE Eric Ebron as a significant one for Stafford. Ebron will be new OC Joe Lombardi’s new Jimmy Graham, and while he’s not in Graham’s class overall, Ebron is faster than Graham and looks like a major matchup nightmare for opposing defenses who typically already have their hands full with Calvin Johnson. Ebron has the speed to be a mismatch against linebackers, and the size to be a mismatch against strong safeties (which would also open up the middle of the field for the WRs). In addition, the Lions in the 6th round added an underrated player in T.J. Jones, who played all four years at Notre Dame. Jones might have been the best route-runner in this year’s draft class because of his explosive cuts out of breaks, and with his reliable hands, Jones has a chance to become a quarterback’s best friend. He project best in the slot, but he can play outside, so there is some flexibility with him and Golden Tate, who already fits in here very well. Add this receiving corps up with their two RBs, both of whom can catch the ball well, and they return all five starters on the OL – and they were excellent blocking for the pass in 2013. Also keep in mind that they neglected to seriously address their biggest need, which was corner, so their secondary could remain sieve-like, which means Stafford’s attempts should be high yet again. Finally, let’s keep in mind Stafford now has FIVE receivers who are 6’4” or taller, so they’re going to be really, really tough to stop in the red zone. Ultimately, we’re just going to have to forgive Stafford for his horrendous December last year.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pit) – Last year OC Todd Haley handed over more control of the offense to Big Ben, and ...
[SIZE=14pt]Tight Ends[/SIZE]

Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano (KC) – I thought there was a decent chance the Chiefs would select one of the top-5 TEs in this draft, but it’s quite possible that they’re encouraged with Kelce’s comeback from micro-fracture knee surgery (he was working out with the team in late April). Kelce is definitely someone to watch because he has the talent to be a complete TE, and because this is a TE-friendly offense with a QB who makes his living throwing inside the numbers and to the TE. If Kelce’s out of commission, then the grizzled Fasano would actually be worth a look with your last pick. Fasano just missed several TDs last year, and he did score 3 times. This situation is worth monitoring because there’s sneaky value here. Obviously, Kelce is the player to focus on and hope for, since he could be given a large role if healthy...

[SIZE=14pt]Team Defenses[/SIZE]

St. Louis Ram Defense (Stl) – We liked the Ram defense a lot last summer, but while they started off slowly in September, they were actually the third-best fantasy defense in most scoring systems in 2013. From Week Five on, they were #1, with 44 sacks, 13 INTs, 11 fumble recoveries, and 6 DT/ST TDs. Now, after adding DT Aaron Donald with the 13th overall pick of the draft, they have four 1st-round draft picks on their defensive line, which doesn’t seem fair for opposing offenses. They also added a really solid football player in Lamarcus Joyner, who can lock down opposing slot receivers, and they might have helped solve their issues at safety with 4th-round pick Mo Alexander. Finally, they added LB Michael Sam, who can be an effective sub-package player in Gregg Williams’ defense. Needless to say, this fantasy unit is looking even better for 2014. This defense might land #1 overall in our projections later this month.

Arizona Cardinal Defense (Ari) – The Cardinals are lacking a young pass rusher, and that aspect of their defense is in question this year. Still, they were 7th in the league with 47 sacks last year, and we know the defense is very talented and strong overall. They were 6th in total scoring in 2014, and their secondary could be a shutdown group on the back end. S/slot CB Tyrann Mathieu's rehabilitation from two torn knee ligaments has gone well, but ...


[SIZE=14pt]Downgrades[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14pt]Quarterbacks [/SIZE]

Alex Smith (KC) – I covered all their free agency losses this year, all of which could adversely affect Smith, in my Post-Free Agency Stock Watch. But it’s time for another downgrade because the team did little to help him in the draft. They did effectively replace the departed Dexter McCluster with De'Anthony Thomas, who is more talented and presents more upside than the new Titan and former Chief. But they also shockingly failed to draft a receiver (WR or TE), so Smith’s receiving corps is absolute skank right now. Smith’s also reportedly heading for something of a contract impasse (he’s a free agent after 2014), and KC was allegedly going to draft Johnny Manziel at 23 overall, but the Eagles traded the 22nd pick to Cleveland. And then they drafted Aaron Murray in the 5th round (although that’s not a big deal for 2014). As productive as Smith was in 2013, I still feel like he’s a guy who can put up 13 points for you in a given week, so I think I’d rather lose than try to win with him as a fantasy backup in 2014....

[SIZE=14pt]Running Backs[/SIZE]
Doug Martin (TB) – To be clear, had the Bucs not drafted Charles Sims in the third round, I might have backed Martin as a top-15 pick in an offense that is was shaping up beautifully for Martin – until they took Sims. I’m not going to panic about this, but it has prompted me to drop Martin a little. The day I got to the combine this year, Lovie Smith was the first coach at the podium I saw, and one of the first things I heard him talk about was how he wanted another back in the mix along with Martin. Lovie isn’t running the offense, but everyone in Tampa seems to be on the same page, and I’m not surprised the Bucs took an interesting player like Sims. The Bucs said they couldn’t pass on his hands, so I would imagine Sims will get considerable snaps this year. That takes away from Martin’s upside as a touch Bogart in this backfield, but I still think he’s worth a 2nd round pick in a fantasy draft. He’s still quality young runner who’s versatile, and this offense looks really interesting this year.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard (RBs, Cin) – Obviously....

Lots more at the link.