Post-mortem of Pre-season draft rankings (1 Viewer)

[CravenM]

The current (after week 16) RB rankings for my league based on total points (not perfect but pretty standard) is:

1: Chris Johnson

2: Adrian Peterson

3: Maurice Jones-Drew

4: Ray Rice

5: Thomas Jones

6: Ricky Williams

7: Frank Gore

8: Joseph Addai

9: Ryan Grant

10: Jonathon Stewart

11: DeAngelo Williams

12: Ladanian Tomlinson

13: Michael Turner

14: Steven Jackson

15: Rashard Mendenhall

16: Cedric Benson

17: Pierre Thomas

18: Laurence Maroney

19: Jamaal Charles

20: Tim Hightower

21: Marion Barber

22: Knowshon Moreno

23: Ronnie Brown

24: Matt Forte

From FBG's pre-season picks

1: Adrian Peterson

2: Maurice Jones-Drew

3: Michael Turner

4: Matt Forte

5: LaDainian Tomlinson

6: DeAngelo Williams

7: Steven Jackson

8: Frank Gore

9: Brandon Jacobs

10: Chris Johnson

11: Steve Slaton

12: Clinton Portis

13: Brian Westbrook

14: Ronnie Brown

15: Marion Barber

16: Ryan Grant

17: Kevin Smith

18: Darren McFadden

19: Pierre Thomas NO

20: Knowshon Moreno

21: Marshawn Lynch

22: Larry Johnson

23: Ray Rice

24: Reggie Bush

My initial impressions are:

- Chris Johnson way over-performed and Lendale White disappeared - CJ will prolly be the #1 RB next year (duh?)

- Matt Forte was a one-year wonder, averaging 3.4 ypc with 5 fumbles

- Steve Slater was a one-year wonder also, averaging 3.3 ypc with 5 fumbles

- Ryan Grant started out slow but I think the coaches worked him into better plays later in the season; he also has 0 fumbles

- Portis and Westbrook might be completely done as top 25 RBs

- If the Ravens keep the same running plan next year, Ray Rice could be huge (where did he come from???)

- The CarPanthers and NYJets running games have a bright future, whoever it is

- The NYGiants running game has a dim future - I think they need to draft an RB in 2010

- The Dallas running game now has a 3-headed monster - I want no part of that mish-mash

- The death of Joseph Addai has been greatly exaggerated - the Colts offense is wicked as long as Peyton is there

- Cedric Benson had a career year and probably deserves a big contract next season

The last disturbing trend:

- With the Vikings' vastly improved passing game this year, Adrian Peterson has only averaged 4.4 ypc and had 6 fumbles over 305 carries. Last year, he averaged 4.8 ypc and had 9 fumbles over 363 carries. Did you realize that ADP is 6'1" and only 215 pounds? I have a feeling the big hits and volume of plays are taking a very big and quick toll on ADP's longevity and effectiveness in the league. Depending on what Brett Favre does next season (plays or retires), ADP's ranking may start to drop to the bottom half of the top 10 by 2011 and into the RB2 slot in 2012.

 

[RUSF18]

The last disturbing trend:- With the Vikings' vastly improved passing game this year, Adrian Peterson has only averaged 4.4 ypc and had 6 fumbles over 305 carries. Last year, he averaged 4.8 ypc and had 9 fumbles over 363 carries. Did you realize that ADP is 6'1" and only 215 pounds? I have a feeling the big hits and volume of plays are taking a very big and quick toll on ADP's longevity and effectiveness in the league. Depending on what Brett Favre does next season (plays or retires), ADP's ranking may start to drop to the bottom half of the top 10 by 2011 and into the RB2 slot in 2012.

You should have left this piece out. Anyone who has watched the games knows that the Vikings OL has done a terrible job of run blocking this year and is very overrated. Peterson converted more first downs than anybody this year, he's still pretty damn effective.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The current (after week 16) RB rankings for my league based on total points (not perfect but pretty standard) is:

1: Chris Johnson

2: Adrian Peterson

3: Maurice Jones-Drew

4: Ray Rice

5: Thomas Jones

6: Ricky Williams

7: Frank Gore

8: Joseph Addai

9: Ryan Grant

10: Jonathon Stewart

11: DeAngelo Williams

12: Ladanian Tomlinson

13: Michael Turner

14: Steven Jackson

15: Rashard Mendenhall

16: Cedric Benson

17: Pierre Thomas

18: Laurence Maroney

19: Jamaal Charles

20: Tim Hightower

21: Marion Barber

22: Knowshon Moreno

23: Ronnie Brown

24: Matt Forte

From FBG's pre-season picks

1: Adrian Peterson

2: Maurice Jones-Drew

3: Michael Turner

4: Matt Forte

5: LaDainian Tomlinson

6: DeAngelo Williams

7: Steven Jackson

8: Frank Gore

9: Brandon Jacobs

10: Chris Johnson

11: Steve Slaton

12: Clinton Portis

13: Brian Westbrook

14: Ronnie Brown

15: Marion Barber

16: Ryan Grant

17: Kevin Smith

18: Darren McFadden

19: Pierre Thomas NO

20: Knowshon Moreno

21: Marshawn Lynch

22: Larry Johnson

23: Ray Rice

24: Reggie Bush

My initial impressions are:

- Chris Johnson way over-performed and Lendale White disappeared - CJ will prolly be the #1 RB next year (duh?)

- Matt Forte was a one-year wonder, averaging 3.4 ypc with 5 fumbles

- Steve Slater was a one-year wonder also, averaging 3.3 ypc with 5 fumbles

- Ryan Grant started out slow but I think the coaches worked him into better plays later in the season; he also has 0 fumbles

- Portis and Westbrook might be completely done as top 25 RBs

- If the Ravens keep the same running plan next year, Ray Rice could be huge (where did he come from???)

- The CarPanthers and NYJets running games have a bright future, whoever it is

- The NYGiants running game has a dim future - I think they need to draft an RB in 2010

- The Dallas running game now has a 3-headed monster - I want no part of that mish-mash

- The death of Joseph Addai has been greatly exaggerated - the Colts offense is wicked as long as Peyton is there

- Cedric Benson had a career year and probably deserves a big contract next season

The last disturbing trend:

- With the Vikings' vastly improved passing game this year, Adrian Peterson has only averaged 4.4 ypc and had 6 fumbles over 305 carries. Last year, he averaged 4.8 ypc and had 9 fumbles over 363 carries. Did you realize that ADP is 6'1" and only 215 pounds? I have a feeling the big hits and volume of plays are taking a very big and quick toll on ADP's longevity and effectiveness in the league. Depending on what Brett Favre does next season (plays or retires), ADP's ranking may start to drop to the bottom half of the top 10 by 2011 and into the RB2 slot in 2012.

It's something to think that based on the above that if the preseason rankings were followed then someone could go ADP or MJD with the 1st pick and get Chris Johnson with the second. If so those folks must have had a helluva season.Also, excluding Addai for LJ just seems crazy now, but should have then as well.

If so, I guess my next question is: who's next year's Chris Johnson???

 

[Irish Chaos]

The last disturbing trend:- With the Vikings' vastly improved passing game this year, Adrian Peterson has only averaged 4.4 ypc and had 6 fumbles over 305 carries. Last year, he averaged 4.8 ypc and had 9 fumbles over 363 carries. Did you realize that ADP is 6'1" and only 215 pounds? I have a feeling the big hits and volume of plays are taking a very big and quick toll on ADP's longevity and effectiveness in the league. Depending on what Brett Favre does next season (plays or retires), ADP's ranking may start to drop to the bottom half of the top 10 by 2011 and into the RB2 slot in 2012.

You should have left this piece out. Anyone who has watched the games knows that the Vikings OL has done a terrible job of run blocking this year and is very overrated. Peterson converted more first downs than anybody this year, he's still pretty damn effective.

Yeah I think people are looking at box scores and not really consider the flow of the individual games. As an A.P. owner all season his 17 tds seem great but there were over 3 games where the vikes were so far ahead that a.p. stayed on bench...or they were behind and chester was brought in on passing situations. Also, I've never seen a team just refuse to run such a great rb in goaline scenarios....(Pitt game is the only coming to mind right now) Even the steelers were shocked they didnt get ap at the goalline...

 

[ThePittbully]

The last disturbing trend:- With the Vikings' vastly improved passing game this year, Adrian Peterson has only averaged 4.4 ypc and had 6 fumbles over 305 carries. Last year, he averaged 4.8 ypc and had 9 fumbles over 363 carries. Did you realize that ADP is 6'1" and only 215 pounds? I have a feeling the big hits and volume of plays are taking a very big and quick toll on ADP's longevity and effectiveness in the league. Depending on what Brett Favre does next season (plays or retires), ADP's ranking may start to drop to the bottom half of the top 10 by 2011 and into the RB2 slot in 2012.

You should have left this piece out. Anyone who has watched the games knows that the Vikings OL has done a terrible job of run blocking this year and is very overrated. Peterson converted more first downs than anybody this year, he's still pretty damn effective.

Yeah I think people are looking at box scores and not really consider the flow of the individual games. As an A.P. owner all season his 17 tds seem great but there were over 3 games where the vikes were so far ahead that a.p. stayed on bench...or they were behind and chester was brought in on passing situations. Also, I've never seen a team just refuse to run such a great rb in goaline scenarios....(Pitt game is the only coming to mind right now) Even the steelers were shocked they didnt get ap at the goalline...

Yea as an AP owner who has also watched most of the Vikings games, Im not at all worried about him. He's still a beast, he's not even close to being worn down

 

[FUBAR]

TOP 5:

1: Adrian Peterson2: Maurice Jones-Drew3: Michael Turner4: Matt Forte5: LaDainian Tomlinson1: Chris Johnson2: Adrian Peterson3: Maurice Jones-Drew4: Ray Rice5: Thomas Jones

Peterson and MJD maintained - 40%

6: DeAngelo Williams7: Steven Jackson 8: Frank Gore9: Brandon Jacobs 10: Chris Johnson 11: Steve Slaton 12: Clinton Portis 6: Ricky Williams7: Frank Gore8: Joseph Addai9: Ryan Grant10: Jonathon Stewart11: DeAngelo Williams12: Ladanian Tomlinson

Gore and DWill maintained tier 2LT dropped a tierCJ improvedTop 12 hit rate - 6/12, 50% (isn't that always the case?)

 

[captbly]

I didnt believe in Chris Johnson either....and I past him over....oh well...

 

[Rovers]

I am going to blame it on you, CravenM This thread MADE me bump a preseason thread of my own about T Jones. I am now a full fledged "I told you so" poster. Thanks alot, pal. Your fault.

 

[mikel2014]

The current (after week 16) RB rankings for my league based on total points (not perfect but pretty standard) is:

1: Chris Johnson

2: Adrian Peterson

3: Maurice Jones-Drew

4: Ray Rice

5: Thomas Jones

6: Ricky Williams

7: Frank Gore

8: Joseph Addai

9: Ryan Grant

10: Jonathon Stewart

11: DeAngelo Williams

12: Ladanian Tomlinson

13: Michael Turner

14: Steven Jackson

15: Rashard Mendenhall

16: Cedric Benson

17: Pierre Thomas

18: Laurence Maroney

19: Jamaal Charles

20: Tim Hightower

21: Marion Barber

22: Knowshon Moreno

23: Ronnie Brown

24: Matt Forte

From FBG's pre-season picks

1: Adrian Peterson

2: Maurice Jones-Drew

3: Michael Turner

4: Matt Forte

5: LaDainian Tomlinson

6: DeAngelo Williams

7: Steven Jackson

8: Frank Gore

9: Brandon Jacobs

10: Chris Johnson

11: Steve Slaton

12: Clinton Portis

13: Brian Westbrook

14: Ronnie Brown

15: Marion Barber

16: Ryan Grant

17: Kevin Smith

18: Darren McFadden

19: Pierre Thomas NO

20: Knowshon Moreno

21: Marshawn Lynch

22: Larry Johnson

23: Ray Rice

24: Reggie Bush

My initial impressions are:

- Chris Johnson way over-performed and Lendale White disappeared - CJ will prolly be the #1 RB next year (duh?)

- Matt Forte was a one-year wonder, averaging 3.4 ypc with 5 fumbles

- Steve Slater was a one-year wonder also, averaging 3.3 ypc with 5 fumbles

- Ryan Grant started out slow but I think the coaches worked him into better plays later in the season; he also has 0 fumbles

- Portis and Westbrook might be completely done as top 25 RBs

- If the Ravens keep the same running plan next year, Ray Rice could be huge (where did he come from???)

- The CarPanthers and NYJets running games have a bright future, whoever it is

- The NYGiants running game has a dim future - I think they need to draft an RB in 2010

- The Dallas running game now has a 3-headed monster - I want no part of that mish-mash

- The death of Joseph Addai has been greatly exaggerated - the Colts offense is wicked as long as Peyton is there

- Cedric Benson had a career year and probably deserves a big contract next season

The last disturbing trend:

- With the Vikings' vastly improved passing game this year, Adrian Peterson has only averaged 4.4 ypc and had 6 fumbles over 305 carries. Last year, he averaged 4.8 ypc and had 9 fumbles over 363 carries. Did you realize that ADP is 6'1" and only 215 pounds? I have a feeling the big hits and volume of plays are taking a very big and quick toll on ADP's longevity and effectiveness in the league. Depending on what Brett Favre does next season (plays or retires), ADP's ranking may start to drop to the bottom half of the top 10 by 2011 and into the RB2 slot in 2012.

It's something to think that based on the above that if the preseason rankings were followed then someone could go ADP or MJD with the 1st pick and get Chris Johnson with the second. If so those folks must have had a helluva season.Also, excluding Addai for LJ just seems crazy now, but should have then as well.

If so, I guess my next question is: who's next year's Chris Johnson???

A guy in my league got MJD at 4 and Chris Johnson at 23. Needless to say he did pretty well. He went on a 12 game winning streak after losing the first week, only to lose in the semifinals.

 

[TheBaylorKid]

 

[Bri]

The biggest thing this year seemed to be the impact of QBs as teams begin to use more and more RBs as integral parts of their O, the QB's points stand out more and more.

If it used to be RB getting 50 and QB getting 50 points, it's heading toward QB getting 50 and RB 25 RB 25. (It won't get there, 'nother discussion another time)

More than half of the top 30 scorers are QBs now and it's a trend to watch:

2009 6 in Top 10, 16 in top 30.

2008 6 in top 10, 12 in top 30

2007 6 in top 10, 13 in top 30

2006 5 in top 10, 10 in top 30

(Going on the thinking where top 12 QBs start in 12 team league, ranked 13+ are backups)

To put it in perspective(or just something to think on)

Jay Cutler, David Garrard and Carson Palmer were backup QBs.

Those backup QBs were better than Dallas Clark and Frank Gore

The worst starting FF QB was better than Larry Fitzgerald and Moss was only 1.3 points better than him.

 

[Gary Davenport]

The biggest thing this year seemed to be the impact of QBs as teams begin to use more and more RBs as integral parts of their O, the QB's points stand out more and more.

If it used to be RB getting 50 and QB getting 50 points, it's heading toward QB getting 50 and RB 25 RB 25. (It won't get there, 'nother discussion another time)

More than half of the top 30 scorers are QBs now and it's a trend to watch:

2009 6 in Top 10, 16 in top 30.

2008 6 in top 10, 12 in top 30

2007 6 in top 10, 13 in top 30

2006 5 in top 10, 10 in top 30

(Going on the thinking where top 12 QBs start in 12 team league, ranked 13+ are backups)

To put it in perspective(or just something to think on)

Jay Cutler, David Garrard and Carson Palmer were backup QBs.

Those backup QBs were better than Dallas Clark and Frank Gore

The worst starting FF QB was better than Larry Fitzgerald and Moss was only 1.3 points better than him.

That doesn't make QBs more valuable so much as make the remaining "bellcow" backs that much more so.

 

[Bri]

The biggest thing this year seemed to be the impact of QBs as teams begin to use more and more RBs as integral parts of their O, the QB's points stand out more and more.

If it used to be RB getting 50 and QB getting 50 points, it's heading toward QB getting 50 and RB 25 RB 25. (It won't get there, 'nother discussion another time)

More than half of the top 30 scorers are QBs now and it's a trend to watch:

2009 6 in Top 10, 16 in top 30.

2008 6 in top 10, 12 in top 30

2007 6 in top 10, 13 in top 30

2006 5 in top 10, 10 in top 30

(Going on the thinking where top 12 QBs start in 12 team league, ranked 13+ are backups)

To put it in perspective(or just something to think on)

Jay Cutler, David Garrard and Carson Palmer were backup QBs.

Those backup QBs were better than Dallas Clark and Frank Gore

The worst starting FF QB was better than Larry Fitzgerald and Moss was only 1.3 points better than him.

That doesn't make QBs more valuable so much as make the remaining "bellcow" backs that much more so.

I didn't discuss value, feel free. Feel free to explain further re: bell cow RBs

 

[Instinctive]

The biggest thing this year seemed to be the impact of QBs as teams begin to use more and more RBs as integral parts of their O, the QB's points stand out more and more.

If it used to be RB getting 50 and QB getting 50 points, it's heading toward QB getting 50 and RB 25 RB 25. (It won't get there, 'nother discussion another time)

More than half of the top 30 scorers are QBs now and it's a trend to watch:

2009 6 in Top 10, 16 in top 30.

2008 6 in top 10, 12 in top 30

2007 6 in top 10, 13 in top 30

2006 5 in top 10, 10 in top 30

(Going on the thinking where top 12 QBs start in 12 team league, ranked 13+ are backups)

To put it in perspective(or just something to think on)

Jay Cutler, David Garrard and Carson Palmer were backup QBs.

Those backup QBs were better than Dallas Clark and Frank Gore

The worst starting FF QB was better than Larry Fitzgerald and Moss was only 1.3 points better than him.

That doesn't make QBs more valuable so much as make the remaining "bellcow" backs that much more so.

I didn't discuss value, feel free. Feel free to explain further re: bell cow RBs

Point being so many QBs score well that after the elite, cut above guys, you should wait because many of them will finish similarly.With less guys that get 20+ carries a game, the guys who do are worth more...like Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones, and now Cedric Benson. A few people said over and over that it was insanity to leave guys like Grant and Jones on the board into the 3rd round when they would get 20 carries a game, or more. I snagged Grant in quite a few leagues with great value because of this.

Don't underestimate the power of all the carries. CJ, AD, MJD, SJax, Grant, TJones, Frank Gore, Michael Turner, now Ray Rice and Mendy too I suppose.

Those are the guys I want. Maybe not Jones in dynasty...getting old...but anyone who's gonna get that many carries is going to be valuable unless they suck on a Forte-ian level.

 

[Andrew]

Point being so many QBs score well that after the elite, cut above guys, you should wait because many of them will finish similarly.With less guys that get 20+ carries a game, the guys who do are worth more...like Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones, and now Cedric Benson. A few people said over and over that it was insanity to leave guys like Grant and Jones on the board into the 3rd round when they would get 20 carries a game, or more. I snagged Grant in quite a few leagues with great value because of this.Don't underestimate the power of all the carries. CJ, AD, MJD, SJax, Grant, TJones, Frank Gore, Michael Turner, now Ray Rice and Mendy too I suppose.Those are the guys I want. Maybe not Jones in dynasty...getting old...but anyone who's gonna get that many carries is going to be valuable unless they suck on a Forte-ian level.

Of course for some of the top guys, a good chunk of their value is derived from being 3-down backs that don't come off the field. Guys who had lots of targets in the passing game include F. Gore, S. Jackson, C. Johnson, M. Jones-Drew, and especially Ray Rice, who has 74 receptions through week 16. A nice thing about a pass-catching back, even if you're not in PPR, is that it allows your RB to score points even if his team is behind. Intuitively, I think that keeps their scoring levels more consistent.

 

[sholditch]

I expect St Loius to come out of the draft with a starting rookie QB whoever that is. That spells a huge boon for Jackson. However, his injury proneness was proven yet again, which will make him the best back available at the end of the first round.

If DWILL leaves Carolina, Stewart is a top five back behind Rice, AP, CJ, MJD.

Jamal Charles is legit. I'd rank him at 6.

Gore remains a big risk which should make him available in the second.

Thomas Jones will once again be a great value.

Benson will be impossible to ignore in the first round.

If James Davis can make it through training camp he will be a steal next year.

Ingram, Spiller, and possibly McCluster could make some noise as rookies.

Moreno will play better making him a nice value in second or third.

 

[Blackjacks]

I expect St Loius to come out of the draft with a starting rookie QB whoever that is. That spells a huge boon for Jackson. However, his injury proneness was proven yet again, which will make him the best back available at the end of the first round.

If DWILL leaves Carolina, Stewart is a top five back behind Rice, AP, CJ, MJD.Jamal Charles is legit. I'd rank him at 6.

Gore remains a big risk which should make him available in the second.

Thomas Jones will once again be a great value.

Benson will be impossible to ignore in the first round.

If James Davis can make it through training camp he will be a steal next year.



Ingram, Spiller, and possibly McCluster could make some noise as rookies.

Moreno will play better making him a nice value in second or third.

I know there has been talk about this in the shark pool but I haven't heard anything from the Panthers that say they are considering moving Williams.Ingram is only a true sophmore and can't come out this year

I will be avoiding T. Jones next year