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Post Week 1: Buy Low/Sell High (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Deamon
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
It's always tough to work trades after Week 1. Nobody wants to admit they blew a high pick or look like they are panicking by selling too soon. If you have a player you now think is going to underperform, chances are you're selling into a decline - you don't want to give away value because of one bad game.
Deamon
Footballguy
Very true. People with a really high pick like Kamara, etc probably won't be willing to give up on him since they've invested a lot of energy and emotion and excitement into owning him for a while.
Maybe if someone had Dak or is desperately needing an upgrade somewhere then there could be some people trading. Guess it could be more 'stock up/stock down', but I do know some trade-crazy leagues that you could potentially look to take advantage of.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Stafford/ARob owners might be willing to sell low after that week 1 debacle. If they bounce back big this week they may not want to sell anymore.
-jb-
Footballguy
I'd rather have Thomas at least for the next 6-8 weeks.
Good. I may send trade offer then.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
What do we consider a buy low? A player who is under-performing and the situation is perceived by the public to be brutal?
If so, DJ Moore is probably a great buy low. People like myself probably think Aaron Jones will be more involved and that the running game is churning fantasy points.
Travis Etienne is also a good buy low. Not a great performance or snap share. James Robinson is freaking out their managers but he's a good bet on talent guy.
But boy do I regret drafting Aaron Jones and ETN right now lol
Allen Robinson public perception is probably very bad as well because that was the first game of the season. People saw first-hand that he was not targeted at all on live television.
Zeke and Lamb are ultimate buy lows but I wouldn't offer a lot for them lol
If so, DJ Moore is probably a great buy low. People like myself probably think Aaron Jones will be more involved and that the running game is churning fantasy points.
Travis Etienne is also a good buy low. Not a great performance or snap share. James Robinson is freaking out their managers but he's a good bet on talent guy.
But boy do I regret drafting Aaron Jones and ETN right now lol
Allen Robinson public perception is probably very bad as well because that was the first game of the season. People saw first-hand that he was not targeted at all on live television.
Zeke and Lamb are ultimate buy lows but I wouldn't offer a lot for them lol
skinsrule05
Footballguy
My god why? Do you remember what the Dallas offense looked like last year without Dak?
sho nuff
Footballguy
Seems I made a sell high on James Robinson
to get
Brady
after losing Dak.
Figuring last night will be about Brady's floor (though, they could lean on Fournette a lot like that)....but trying to chase Carson Wentz putting up such points all year long had me not looking forward to the rest of the year. Kept most of my other depth as Robinson was behind others overall on my team).
to get
Brady
after losing Dak.
Figuring last night will be about Brady's floor (though, they could lean on Fournette a lot like that)....but trying to chase Carson Wentz putting up such points all year long had me not looking forward to the rest of the year. Kept most of my other depth as Robinson was behind others overall on my team).
Chaka
Footballguy
Sure, but who's selling?
Interesting point on the sell high players. I think that is the more important info to garner from this thread. That's the key to week one, who is willing to look at a player who performed above expectation and try and gain value rolling the dice that production will taper off. I wouldn't sell McLaurin and I would probably be interested in buying Sanders.
Who else are people selling high on?
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Michael Carter if you're in a PPR.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'd buy.
Deamon
Footballguy
1- People who might have seen the 8 touches and been frustrated with him as their RB1. But yes you're right, not many and this becomes more useful later in the year.
2- McLaurin had 4 targets and luckily one of them was a bomb td. Carson will regress (imo) and that was one of, if not the, worst pass defenses wash will play all year.
3- No chance Sanders averages what he put up last week throughout the season. Someone might love his 95 yards and TD, but I dont believe that will be common at all.
zamboni
Footballguy
As an Etienne owner, I agree to some extent, but on the other hand Robinson is a pretty talented football player (if not as explosive as Etienne) and, perhaps more importantly, has the trust of his coach.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think Sanders will average 7.4 per carry but I do believe he is the lead back in Phili and will continue to see around 15 opportunities per week. He has averaged 5.1 ypc on 480 carries and 8.3 ypr on 104 receptions his first three years. Dude can play.
I can see being a.little down on Maclaurin not because he has regressed but because this may be the deepest group of pass catchers he has played with. Maybe not enough targets to go around. But he'll definitely average more than four going forward.
zamboni
Footballguy
Sanders may have some holes in his game, such as availability, but rushing efficiency is not one of them for sure.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Judging by the player thread bumps today I guess Brece Hall & Kamara. 10 targets for the former and I’ve said all summer his vale is on the back half of the season. I expect him to be a buy low opportunity often in the next couple months. Won’t change his talent or the schedule after the bye.
IMO Kamara will be Kamara but maybe float an email/text to his owner to see if it’s up for discussion. Never know unless you ask.
Looking over the first 3 rounds I think Aaron Jones is the only RB disappointment? (Najee injury just is what it is, in a few weeks he’s back.) The top 5 WR were all stellar as well. Early of course but good to see.
IMO Kamara will be Kamara but maybe float an email/text to his owner to see if it’s up for discussion. Never know unless you ask.
Looking over the first 3 rounds I think Aaron Jones is the only RB disappointment? (Najee injury just is what it is, in a few weeks he’s back.) The top 5 WR were all stellar as well. Early of course but good to see.
jm192
Footballguy
Etienne's snap share was 50%. He only got 6 touches, but had 65 yards. As someone with Etienne in all 3 dynasty leagues, I was freaking out during the game and couldn't believe the disaster that just unfolded. I CANNOT believe how good James Robinson looked so shortly after an Achilles injury--even if it was just a partial tear.
Looking a little deeper into the snap count and such--I think it'll be closer to a 50/50 split rather than Robinson dominating the backfield and Etienne just being a change of pace guy. With his explosiveness, he can still put up solid fantasy numbers.
For these reasons, I agree he is a very good buy low. I don't think the average manager is looking at snap share and such. This is a situation where I think a lot of people are going to panic, and you might be able to swing a trade.
Deamon
Footballguy
Td efficiency is an enormous hole though
Moonlight
Footballguy
Dillon was getting more run than Jones in second half of last year. Dillon not going away unless he's injured and Dillon seems to be GL back based on Pack game.
Chaka
Footballguy
TDs though, are such a difficult stat to predict. Last season seems a likely outlier. He's probably not a double digit TD guy but, hey he's on pace for 17TDs this season.
Deamon
Footballguy
He'll get 7-8
Chaka
Footballguy
~1,200 yards & 7-8 TDs seems like a nice addition to any magic football team.
Dave Stauff
Footballguy
No mention of C. Patterson yet. I'm sure 22 +3 is unsustainable, but he's certainly looking like at least like an RB2. Sell high or hold and ride the wild surf?
3nOut
Footballguy
As a Kamara owner, I'm not selling... because there is no way Hill does that each week.
That said, I would say Hill is a buy as a flier.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I was actually thinking of adding CP84 to this thread as a buy high. I offered Dameon Pierce for Patterson this morning in a redraft league and was hoping the other owner would smash the accept button as a buy low / sell high. So far it's been crickets.
habsfan
Footballguy
I'm riding. I would have expected fewer rushing attempts and a few more receptions.
LawFitz
Footballguy
How about Allen Lazard? His owner may be eager to move on given the (what I presume/hope is a minor) ankle injury and how bad the Packers offense performed yesterday. I'm not ready to bury the two-time defending MVP just yet and suspect Lazard will see massive volume upon his return. Rodgers clearly hasn't clicked with anyone else and has been talking up the Lizard King for two years now. He scored 8 TDs last year, including 5 in his last five games - and there are like 17,000 Devante Adams vacated targets waiting around for someone to seize them.
zamboni
Footballguy
I can see a lot of FF teams running up that Hill, but don’t see a lot of value unless he’s filling in at QB.
EBF
Footballguy
Going nowhere on Pitts. He's the type who can drop 5/130/2 next week no problem. You have to stay the course there.
Remain optimistic about Josh Jacobs. Negative would be a small workload. Positive would be that he's clearly the dude there. He's the type of guy where the numbers can be frustrating week to week, but at the end of the year he's always there with respectable total stats. Fine as a RB2. If we extend this conversation to dynasty, I think he jumps ship and is starting elsewhere next season. Likely on a team that will use him more effectively. I think he's approximately the ~15th best RB in the NFL, so should land in a starting role until his skills decline.
I like the DJ Moore shout. Very good player on a team that will simply need to throw sometimes to stay in games. No reason to worry.
There are some interesting decisions in QB2 territory. I know Rodgers is Rodgers, but their absolute lack of weapons is a concern. Meanwhile you have guys like Tua, Mills, and Winston who seem on track to exceed expectations. I like that trio if you can grab them as a waiver backup in shallow leagues.
Baltimore is going to be an interesting offense to monitor. We know that Andrews is effectively the WR1. The Bateman/Duvernay split could go either way. Will Lamar throw enough for it to matter? I'm not sure, but I can see both players being interesting values. Since Duvernay is so much cheaper, he's the more compelling buy candidate. 4 targets in week 1 vs. 5 for Bateman. Bateman is the presumptive leader of the WR room, but maybe it's 1A and 1B. What I've said about Duvernay elsewhere is that Baltimore have left meat on the bone with his big play potential. He's a 10.3 guy in the 100m. 4.3-4.4 type of speed. They've not really tapped into that yet, which gives him some latent upside if they start stretching the field more.
Remain optimistic about Josh Jacobs. Negative would be a small workload. Positive would be that he's clearly the dude there. He's the type of guy where the numbers can be frustrating week to week, but at the end of the year he's always there with respectable total stats. Fine as a RB2. If we extend this conversation to dynasty, I think he jumps ship and is starting elsewhere next season. Likely on a team that will use him more effectively. I think he's approximately the ~15th best RB in the NFL, so should land in a starting role until his skills decline.
I like the DJ Moore shout. Very good player on a team that will simply need to throw sometimes to stay in games. No reason to worry.
There are some interesting decisions in QB2 territory. I know Rodgers is Rodgers, but their absolute lack of weapons is a concern. Meanwhile you have guys like Tua, Mills, and Winston who seem on track to exceed expectations. I like that trio if you can grab them as a waiver backup in shallow leagues.
Baltimore is going to be an interesting offense to monitor. We know that Andrews is effectively the WR1. The Bateman/Duvernay split could go either way. Will Lamar throw enough for it to matter? I'm not sure, but I can see both players being interesting values. Since Duvernay is so much cheaper, he's the more compelling buy candidate. 4 targets in week 1 vs. 5 for Bateman. Bateman is the presumptive leader of the WR room, but maybe it's 1A and 1B. What I've said about Duvernay elsewhere is that Baltimore have left meat on the bone with his big play potential. He's a 10.3 guy in the 100m. 4.3-4.4 type of speed. They've not really tapped into that yet, which gives him some latent upside if they start stretching the field more.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
buy:
Kadarius Toney , he was either in the doghouse or they were being gentle with him.Either way he's going to pop-off at some point.
Elijah Moore - not a great game but decent fantasy pts. better days will come. Jets did some stupid things yesterday.
Danny DImes
Tua
Chase Edmonds - have to like the 12 carries and the recs. lots of involvement in the offense.
Sell:
Jalen Hurts - inaccurate passing in a game where they got the win but it wasn't pretty. Sell high before others notice the guy can't hit the side of a barn.
Any/all Cardinals players. Cards looked scary bad yesterday, and Kyler looked totally disinterested.
Dalvin Cook - can he stay healthy , again?
Stafford
Allen Robinson
Kadarius Toney , he was either in the doghouse or they were being gentle with him.Either way he's going to pop-off at some point.
Elijah Moore - not a great game but decent fantasy pts. better days will come. Jets did some stupid things yesterday.
Danny DImes
Tua
Chase Edmonds - have to like the 12 carries and the recs. lots of involvement in the offense.
Sell:
Jalen Hurts - inaccurate passing in a game where they got the win but it wasn't pretty. Sell high before others notice the guy can't hit the side of a barn.
Any/all Cardinals players. Cards looked scary bad yesterday, and Kyler looked totally disinterested.
Dalvin Cook - can he stay healthy , again?
Stafford
Allen Robinson
Deamon
Footballguy
I'd buy him. Caught 8 of 9 targets, running 6.1 YPC. The fumble was weird and I'm not fully defending it, but not totally on him. Get that guy in a rhythm already.After this fumbling garbage, I think you might could buy low on Javonte Williams. He actually has looked pretty good AT TIMES.
But then again, so has Gordon.
Chaka
Footballguy
I have him as my RB2, I would make you overpay, severely if you want him.After this fumbling garbage, I think you might could buy low on Javonte Williams. He actually has looked pretty good AT TIMES.
But then again, so has Gordon.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I have him as my RB2, I would make you overpay, severely if you want him.After this fumbling garbage, I think you might could buy low on Javonte Williams. He actually has looked pretty good AT TIMES.
But then again, so has Gordon.
I wasn't interested in him as an early 2nd rounder. I fully expected a bit of a timeshare, so I scooped up Gordon much later in a couple spots as a bench RB.
We all know Javonte is the younger more explosive back, but if the coaching staff doesn't want to use him more frequently, then theres nothing any one of us can do.....except wait.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Seeing big things for Rhamondre? I'm doubtful, but does a banged up or injured Mac Jones factor into future success? Any insight appreciated because I'm looking at adding Hill as backup TE and Rham was my poorest performer this past week.
Deamon
Footballguy
You don't drop rhamondre for a backup te, jeez
Drake Hater
Footballguy
He's a bench stash at this point. If he's dropped there's a good chance I could snag him again from waivers. Hill has some x-factor upside that can win when he hits.
Deamon
Footballguy
Don't do that.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
(stepping back from the ledge...)
Still interested in upside perspective on Rhamondre though.
Chaka
Footballguy
Your team so absolutely do what you think is best.
I think, overwhelmingly people you ask would tell you it's too early to cut bait on Rhamondre. You probably drafted him as your RB3 maybe RB4, he provides bench depth and, if you're really down on him I would bet you have league mates who are not. Package him in a deal for an upgrade.
But I wouldn't cut him for a flavor of the week TE.
Last edited:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
especially one that is a gadget player
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Appreciate it. I cut bait on Pittman last year too soon. You'd think I'd learn by now. Glad I floated this crazy idea to you guys for some perspective.
