Potential top ten PPG WRs that can be had late (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

Pos

Rank Pick Name Pos Team Overall SDev High Low Times

12 4.02 Wes Welker WR NE 31.8 4.8 3.01 6.04 211

13 4.02 Vince Jackson WR SD 32.3 5.0 2.09 6.01 370

14 4.08 Mike Williams WR TB 37.5 5.0 3.04 6.02 233

16 5.02 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI 42.5 5.6 3.07 7.05 214

18 5.07 Brandon Lloyd WR DEN 46.9 5.3 4.03 7.04 152

21 6.10 Santa Holmes WR NYJ 59.9 8.9 4.06 9.07 342

22 7.01 Dez Bryant WR DAL 60.6 8.7 4.07 9.03 426

25 7.03 Austin Collie WR IND 63.0 8.7 5.03 10.01 309

26 7.09 Sidney Rice WR MIN 69.4 8.6 5.07 10.02 223

29 8.05 Kenny Britt WR TEN 74.5 9.8 5.08 10.10 188

The table above is based on ten team PPR redraft leagues on fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

I think that every guy on this list has potential to be a top ten WR next year on a points-per-game basis and they can all be had late. They have warts that you'll need to work through to find the true gems, but given their price, I could see myself waiting until rd 4 or 5 this year to draft my first WR. The ones in bold especially stand out to me.

I love going against the trend and right now, the trend in PPR leagues is to go WR early. I like all the guys on the list above plus a few more possible gems in even later rounds as backups with upside: Steve Smiff (non-NYG), Jacoby Ford, Jordy Nelson, and dare I say, Plax Burress or even Randy Moss depending on where they land.

Just some food for thought for some of the rest of you that also have had a leaning, especially in recent years, towards taking WRs in Rds 1-3. This might be a year to reach for that potential stud QB or RB instead.

ETA: Wanted to add two more late guys that could be gems - whoever becomes the Rams #1 WR and Big Mike Williams (stealing Waldman's thunder).

 

[finito]

Where is Steve Johnson going? I like him depending on the price paid.

 

[hook014]

Good idea for a thread. I've often told my buddies that any monkey can draft the first 3 rds and not hurt themselves but starting in rd4 you see who's gonna compete.

I particularly like V Jackson this yr, if you can get him in the 4th rd that's great value.

Holmes could put up a great year if he gets outta NY. I'm really keeping my eye on that situation. If he stays Sanchez will keep his numbers down. Not worth the trouble.

Welker with Edelman and Collie with B White are good targets simply cause you can reasonably expect to identify their backups and get at least 80% of the production from them. So not a total loss if they go down. Personally I'll be targeting Collie/ White as it's not advisable to go for both tandems.

Just did a dynasty start up and missed on Ford. Man that hurt, I'll probably pick him a rd before his ADP in redraft cause I think he's gonna be a steal for his owners.

 

[adrenaline]

I appreciate your research but I've noticed most the drafters there don't know WTH they are doing.

I would trust this more than FFC.

http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2011/adp?COUNT=100&POS=*&CUTOFF=5&L=38917&IS_PPR=1&IS_KEEPER=0&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

 

[LawFitz]

Where is Steve Johnson going? I like him depending on the price paid.

19 5.10 Steve Johnson WR BUF 49.9 6.2 4.03 7.07 274He's a guy I'm intrigued by but I don't like his QB or team situation and his mental breakdown on Twitter last year after he blew the Pitt game was a bit scary. He definitely had a breakout year last season though and looks the part of a WR1.

 

[sihaokills]

I think Maclin has a huge chance to make the top 10.

 

[Instinctive]

I like this strategy this year.

I am always an advocate of top WRs early and RBs later because the RBs get injured and have a ton of turnover all the time...but WR seems exceptionally deep this year and RB super shallow. I may actually be going QB and RB early and then hammering WR all through the middle rounds.

I too like Steve Johnson as a WR1 candidate.

 

[Late225]

I've liked taking flyers on proven WRs that many guys are down on this year. Specifically Hines Ward, Donald Driver, and Derick Mason. These guys can easily be top 20 if they stay healthy.

 

[LawFitz]

I appreciate your research but I've noticed most the drafters there don't know WTH they are doing.I would trust this more than FFC.http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2011/adp?COUNT=100&POS=*&CUTOFF=5&L=38917&IS_PPR=1&IS_KEEPER=0&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

Thank you. That's great input and exactly why I love this board!Here is the 12-team MFL ADP list for the WRs noted above.26. 3.02 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 28.95 12 160 24632. 3.08 Williams, Mike TBB WR 34.63 11 177 24633. 3.09 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 35.55 9 200 24637. 4.01 Welker, Wes NEP WR 39.50 15 203 24641. 4.05 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR 41.13 22 184 24647. 4.11 Johnson, Steve BUF WR 49.85 21 174 24650. 5.02 Collie, Austin IND WR 53.47 21 212 24551. 5.03 Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR 53.50 28 207 24554. 5.06 Rice, Sidney MIN WR 56.77 25 187 24357. 5.09 Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR 58.78 36 211 24660. 5.12 Britt, Kenny TEN WR 60.05 30 209 24186. 8.02 Williams, Mike SEA WR 92.33 59 239 23692. 8.08 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 96.90 53 272 23396. 8.12 Smith, Steve CAR WR 101.04 54 252 236ETA: prices look quite a bit higher for some guys (e.g. Dez B.). But still worth considering if they are truly candidates to break into top ten PPG scoring. Now you gotta figure out whether your league is of the FFC or MFL drafting variety.ETA2: Just noticed that the MFL list above is for 12-team leagues, rather than 10-team version I used with FFC in the first post. So that's skewing the rounds upward as well, but probably for good to show an extreme for 10-teamers and more of a reality for 12-teamers.

 

[TheWick]

I appreciate your research but I've noticed most the drafters there don't know WTH they are doing.

I would trust this more than FFC.

http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2011/adp?COUNT=100&POS=*&CUTOFF=5&L=38917&IS_PPR=1&IS_KEEPER=0&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

Thank you. That's great input and exactly why I love this board!Here is the MFL ADP list for the WRs noted above.

26. 3.02 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 28.95 12 160 246

32. 3.08 Williams, Mike TBB WR 34.63 11 177 246

33. 3.09 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 35.55 9 200 246

37. 4.01 Welker, Wes NEP WR 39.50 15 203 246

41. 4.05 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR 41.13 22 184 246

47. 4.11 Johnson, Steve BUF WR 49.85 21 174 246

50. 5.02 Collie, Austin IND WR 53.47 21 212 245

51. 5.03 Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR 53.50 28 207 245

54. 5.06 Rice, Sidney MIN WR 56.77 25 187 243

57. 5.09 Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR 58.78 36 211 246

60. 5.12 Britt, Kenny TEN WR 60.05 30 209 241

86. 8.02 Williams, Mike SEA WR 92.33 59 239 236

92. 8.08 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 96.90 53 272 233

96. 8.12 Smith, Steve CAR WR 101.04 54 252 236

ETA: prices look quite a bit higher for some guys (e.g. Dez B.). But still worth considering if they are truly candidates to break into top ten PPG scoring. Now you gotta figure out whether your league is of the FFC or MFL drafting variety.

ETA2: Just noticed that the MFL list above is for 12-team leagues, rather than 10-team version I used with FFC in the first post. So that's skewing the rounds upward as well, but probably for good to show an extreme for 10-teamers and more of a reality for 12-teamers.

His ADP is about to go up quite a bit when/if he signs in a better situation. He is a very good buy this year. A motivated SSmiff with a good QB can still wreak havoc.

 

[TheWick]

How about one of the Rams WRs...no telling which one but there could be some serious value in that passing game.

 

[NeverEnough]

Good thread, but the ADPs here are not what I have seen so far in my dynasty 12 teamer PPR. Dez went in round 2 & VJax in round 3 etc...

 

[Instinctive]

Good thread, but the ADPs here are not what I have seen so far in my dynasty 12 teamer PPR. Dez went in round 2 & VJax in round 3 etc...

This is a redraft thread.

 

[TheWick]

Here is a recently finished 12 team PPR redraft

1.08 8 Johnson, Andre HOU WR

1.1 10 White, Roddy ATL WR

1.11 11 Johnson, Calvin DET WR

2.02 14 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

2.03 15 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR

2.05 17 Wayne, Reggie IND WR

2.09 21 Jennings, Greg GBP WR

2.1 22 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR

2.12 24 Wallace, Mike PIT WR

3.02 26 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR

3.05 29 Austin, Miles DAL WR

3.09 33 Williams, Mike TBB WR

3.1 34 Marshall, Brandon MIA WR

3.12 36 Welker, Wes NEP WR

4.02 38 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

4.05 41 Colston, Marques NOS WR

4.07 43 Johnson, Steve BUF WR

4.09 45 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR

4.11 47 Bryant, Dez DAL WR

4.12 48 Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR

5.01 49 Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR

5.03 51 Collie, Austin IND WR

5.05 53 Harvin, Percy MIN WR

5.07 55 Boldin, Anquan BAL WR

6.01 61 Garcon, Pierre IND WR

6.04 64 Britt, Kenny TEN WR

6.06 66 Rice, Sidney MIN WR

6.07 67 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

6.08 68 Knox, Johnny CHI WR

6.09 69 Green, A.J. CIN WR ®

6.11 71 Manningham, Mario NYG WR

7.03 75 Thomas, Mike JAC WR

7.04 76 Jones, Julio ATL WR ®

7.06 78 Moss, Randy TEN WR

7.09 81 Smith, Steve CAR WR

7.12 84 Williams, Mike SEA WR

8.02 86 Ford, Jacoby OAK WR

8.05 89 Smith, Steve NYG WR

8.06 90 Moss, Santana WAS WR

8.11 95 Amendola, Danny STL WR

9.03 99 Bess, Davone MIA WR

9.1 106 Branch, Deion NEP WR

9.12 108 Meachem, Robert NOS WR

10.01 109 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR

10.04 112 Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR

10.07 115 Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR

11.01 121 Little, Greg CLE WR ®

11.1 130 Ward, Hines PIT WR

12.01 133 Moore, Lance NOS WR

12.02 134 Mason, Derrick BAL WR

12.05 137 Clayton, Mark STL WR

12.06 138 Breaston, Steve ARI WR

12.07 139 Jones, James GBP WR

12.1 142 Simpson, Jerome CIN WR

12.12 144 Floyd, Malcom SDC WR

13.02 146 Alexander, Danario STL WR

13.04 148 Baldwin, Jon KCC WR ®

13.06 150 Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR

13.07 151 Tate, Brandon NEP WR

13.09 153 Driver, Donald GBP WR

13.11 155 Bennett, Earl CHI WR

14.03 159 Evans, Lee BUF WR

14.05 161 Royal, Eddie DEN WR

14.06 162 Hill, Jason JAC WR

14.08 164 Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

14.1 166 Burleson, Nate DET WR

15.02 170 Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR ®

15.04 172 Owens, Terrell CIN WR

15.09 177 Avery, Donnie STL WR

16.02 182 Burress, Plaxico FA* WR

16.03 183 Jones, Jacoby HOU WR

16.07 187 Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR

16.08 188 Armstrong, Anthony WAS WR

16.09 189 Brown, Vincent SDC WR ®

16.12 192 Roberts, Andre ARI WR

17.01 193 Tate, Golden SEA WR

17.03 195 Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

17.04 196 Smith, Torrey BAL WR ®

18.04 208 Gettis, David CAR WR

18.08 212 Walter, Kevin HOU WR

18.1 214 White, Blair IND WR

18.11 215 Morgan, Josh SFO WR

19.03 219 Young, Titus DET WR ®

 

[LawFitz]

How about one of the Rams WRs...no telling which one but there could be some serious value in that passing game.

I agree and added their nameless #1 WR to the original post. Bradford is going to create stats for someone.

 

[Grahamburn]

I've liked taking flyers on proven WRs that many guys are down on this year. Specifically Hines Ward, Donald Driver, and Derick Mason. These guys can easily be top 20 if they stay healthy.

These 3 guys have a total of 5 top 20 finishes in the last 4 seasons combined, with the highest finish being 15th by Hines Ward in 2008. I agree that they can be had late, but I doubt any of them finish inside the top 20.

 

[mrip541]

I like the guys but I'm seeing almost all of them go much earlier than you posted.

 

[NeverEnough]

I like the guys but I'm seeing almost all of them go much earlier than you posted.

Same here

 

[bigmiiiiike]

How about one of the Rams WRs...no telling which one but there could be some serious value in that passing game.

I agree and added their nameless #1 WR to the original post. Bradford + McDaniels is are going to create stats for someone.

Fixed

 

[Instinctive]

I like the guys but I'm seeing almost all of them go much earlier than you posted.

Same here

Probably because his OP is ten team guppies...

 

[LawFitz]

I like the guys but I'm seeing almost all of them go much earlier than you posted.

Same here

Probably because his OP is ten team guppies...

The OP is ten-team ADP at FFC.com.There is a later post with the MFL ADP for 12-team leagues.

 

[Instinctive]

I like the guys but I'm seeing almost all of them go much earlier than you posted.

Same here

Probably because his OP is ten team guppies...

The OP is ten-team ADP at FFC.com.There is a later post with the MFL ADP for 12-team leagues.

1. I agree, that's what I said.2. Those are much more accurate (I looked at them too)

 

[sihaokills]

Here is a recently finished 12 team PPR redraft1.08 8 Johnson, Andre HOU WR1.1 10 White, Roddy ATL WR1.11 11 Johnson, Calvin DET WR2.02 14 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR2.03 15 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR2.05 17 Wayne, Reggie IND WR2.09 21 Jennings, Greg GBP WR2.1 22 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR2.12 24 Wallace, Mike PIT WR3.02 26 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR3.05 29 Austin, Miles DAL WR3.09 33 Williams, Mike TBB WR3.1 34 Marshall, Brandon MIA WR3.12 36 Welker, Wes NEP WR4.02 38 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR4.05 41 Colston, Marques NOS WR4.07 43 Johnson, Steve BUF WR4.09 45 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR4.11 47 Bryant, Dez DAL WR4.12 48 Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR5.01 49 Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR5.03 51 Collie, Austin IND WR5.05 53 Harvin, Percy MIN WR5.07 55 Boldin, Anquan BAL WR6.01 61 Garcon, Pierre IND WR6.04 64 Britt, Kenny TEN WR6.06 66 Rice, Sidney MIN WR6.07 67 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR6.08 68 Knox, Johnny CHI WR6.09 69 Green, A.J. CIN WR ®6.11 71 Manningham, Mario NYG WR7.03 75 Thomas, Mike JAC WR7.04 76 Jones, Julio ATL WR ®7.06 78 Moss, Randy TEN WR7.09 81 Smith, Steve CAR WR7.12 84 Williams, Mike SEA WR8.02 86 Ford, Jacoby OAK WR8.05 89 Smith, Steve NYG WR8.06 90 Moss, Santana WAS WR8.11 95 Amendola, Danny STL WR9.03 99 Bess, Davone MIA WR9.1 106 Branch, Deion NEP WR9.12 108 Meachem, Robert NOS WR10.01 109 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR10.04 112 Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR10.07 115 Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR11.01 121 Little, Greg CLE WR ®11.1 130 Ward, Hines PIT WR12.01 133 Moore, Lance NOS WR12.02 134 Mason, Derrick BAL WR12.05 137 Clayton, Mark STL WR12.06 138 Breaston, Steve ARI WR12.07 139 Jones, James GBP WR12.1 142 Simpson, Jerome CIN WR12.12 144 Floyd, Malcom SDC WR13.02 146 Alexander, Danario STL WR13.04 148 Baldwin, Jon KCC WR ®13.06 150 Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR13.07 151 Tate, Brandon NEP WR13.09 153 Driver, Donald GBP WR13.11 155 Bennett, Earl CHI WR14.03 159 Evans, Lee BUF WR14.05 161 Royal, Eddie DEN WR14.06 162 Hill, Jason JAC WR14.08 164 Benn, Arrelious TBB WR14.1 166 Burleson, Nate DET WR15.02 170 Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR ®15.04 172 Owens, Terrell CIN WR15.09 177 Avery, Donnie STL WR16.02 182 Burress, Plaxico FA* WR16.03 183 Jones, Jacoby HOU WR16.07 187 Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR16.08 188 Armstrong, Anthony WAS WR16.09 189 Brown, Vincent SDC WR ®16.12 192 Roberts, Andre ARI WR17.01 193 Tate, Golden SEA WR17.03 195 Shipley, Jordan CIN WR17.04 196 Smith, Torrey BAL WR ®18.04 208 Gettis, David CAR WR18.08 212 Walter, Kevin HOU WR18.1 214 White, Blair IND WR18.11 215 Morgan, Josh SFO WR19.03 219 Young, Titus DET WR ®

Calvin Johnson went pretty late

 

[Saint]

My bets on Donnie Avery. H's going late in the redraft (WR70) leagues and I think he will be an absolute value at that range.

Here's why I like him:

[*]Phenomenal speed

[*]Chip on his shoulder from being injured

[*]Josh McDaniels as new offensive coordinator. Josh has been prone to turn average WRs into top receivers. In looking at what he did with Brandon Lloyd, Donnie Avery plays in the same slot as Lloyd and has the speed to get great YAC. In a PPR, his targets and catches should exceed anything he has had in his past career.

Keep an eye on this guy as I think he could come out of nowhere this year.

 

[hook014]

My bets on Donnie Avery. H's going late in the redraft (WR70) leagues and I think he will be an absolute value at that range.

Here's why I like him:

[*]Phenomenal speed

[*]Chip on his shoulder from being injured

[*]Josh McDaniels as new offensive coordinator. Josh has been prone to turn average WRs into top receivers. In looking at what he did with Brandon Lloyd, Donnie Avery plays in the same slot as Lloyd and has the speed to get great YAC. In a PPR, his targets and catches should exceed anything he has had in his past career.

Keep an eye on this guy as I think he could come out of nowhere this year.

Good call on Avery. Got him in my dyno very late and nobody said a word. I felt like I stole something.

Going by the above ADP Amendola goes alot sooner and I just dont see it. I just hope Avery doesn't do much in preseason, it will kill the value.

 

[todisco1]

My bets on Donnie Avery. H's going late in the redraft (WR70) leagues and I think he will be an absolute value at that range.

Here's why I like him:

[*]Phenomenal speed

[*]Chip on his shoulder from being injured

[*]Josh McDaniels as new offensive coordinator. Josh has been prone to turn average WRs into top receivers. In looking at what he did with Brandon Lloyd, Donnie Avery plays in the same slot as Lloyd and has the speed to get great YAC. In a PPR, his targets and catches should exceed anything he has had in his past career.

Keep an eye on this guy as I think he could come out of nowhere this year.

Good call on Avery. Got him in my dyno very late and nobody said a word. I felt like I stole something.

Going by the above ADP Amendola goes alot sooner and I just dont see it. I just hope Avery doesn't do much in preseason, it will kill the value.

I like Avery too. I don't think he has top 10 potential this year but he could be a great value if he's healthy -- supposedly he's running the 40 in the low 4.3s so it looks like his speed is back at least...

 

[Nero]

At this point, I like the free agents R. Moss(7.6), B. Edwards(10.7), James Jones(12.7), and Sims-Walker(13.6). Drafted all four in my early redraft. I really think Moss is going to rebound provided he doesn't sign with the Jets.

 

[Mark Wimer]

I like the guys but I'm seeing almost all of them go much earlier than you posted.

Same here

Maybe it is because I mock and play in FF expert leagues, but the values I see in this thread are lower than what I've seen so far this year.

 

[Mark Wimer]

My bets on Donnie Avery. H's going late in the redraft (WR70) leagues and I think he will be an absolute value at that range.

Here's why I like him:

[*]Phenomenal speed

[*]Chip on his shoulder from being injured

[*]Josh McDaniels as new offensive coordinator. Josh has been prone to turn average WRs into top receivers. In looking at what he did with Brandon Lloyd, Donnie Avery plays in the same slot as Lloyd and has the speed to get great YAC. In a PPR, his targets and catches should exceed anything he has had in his past career.

Keep an eye on this guy as I think he could come out of nowhere this year.

Good call on Avery. Got him in my dyno very late and nobody said a word. I felt like I stole something.

Going by the above ADP Amendola goes alot sooner and I just dont see it. I just hope Avery doesn't do much in preseason, it will kill the value.

I like Avery too. I don't think he has top 10 potential this year but he could be a great value if he's healthy -- supposedly he's running the 40 in the low 4.3s so it looks like his speed is back at least...

Straight line speed is one thing - cutting and juking NFL DB's is another. I'm not going to get excited about Avery until he plays on a real field in pads with defenders covering/hitting him.

 

[mrip541]

I like the guys but I'm seeing almost all of them go much earlier than you posted.

Same here

Maybe it is because I mock and play in FF expert leagues, but the values I see in this thread are lower than what I've seen so far this year.

This plus the 10-team mention above has me confused.

 

[KellysHeroes]

surprised by where Welker is getting drafted this yr, highly doubt he equals it

 

[hook014]

My bets on Donnie Avery. H's going late in the redraft (WR70) leagues and I think he will be an absolute value at that range.

Here's why I like him:

[*]Phenomenal speed

[*]Chip on his shoulder from being injured

[*]Josh McDaniels as new offensive coordinator. Josh has been prone to turn average WRs into top receivers. In looking at what he did with Brandon Lloyd, Donnie Avery plays in the same slot as Lloyd and has the speed to get great YAC. In a PPR, his targets and catches should exceed anything he has had in his past career.

Keep an eye on this guy as I think he could come out of nowhere this year.

Good call on Avery. Got him in my dyno very late and nobody said a word. I felt like I stole something.

Going by the above ADP Amendola goes alot sooner and I just dont see it. I just hope Avery doesn't do much in preseason, it will kill the value.

I like Avery too. I don't think he has top 10 potential this year but he could be a great value if he's healthy -- supposedly he's running the 40 in the low 4.3s so it looks like his speed is back at least...

Straight line speed is one thing - cutting and juking NFL DB's is another. I'm not going to get excited about Avery until he plays on a real field in pads with defenders covering/hitting him.

Umm I know he got hurt last year but previous to that he was playing very well. And he didnt look bad in his rookie yr. 2011 will be his 3rd season. If you wait to see the progression play out you miss guys like this.

At his price I'm buying. He's got a shot to end in the 12-15 range. I'm serious.

I got Wallace in the 6th last year and now where's he going? I can't get him at anywhere near that price so I've gotta get a guy late this year like him. You put enough guys like him on your roster and you get to cash checks.

 

[Saint]

Straight line speed is one thing - cutting and juking NFL DB's is another. I'm not going to get excited about Avery until he plays on a real field in pads with defenders covering/hitting him.

Sure it's a risk, but at his ADP in round 15+, how can you not like the guy? IMO, he can be had on the cheap this year with the liklihood of ending up starting in your lineup as WR2 for 15th round price. I'm biting now before he becomes more expensive.

 

[Jersey35]

How about one of the Rams WRs...no telling which one but there could be some serious value in that passing game.

I agree and added their nameless #1 WR to the original post. Bradford is going to create stats for someone.

My $ is on Donnie Avery being the best value in that offense.

 

[Jersey35]

My bets on Donnie Avery. H's going late in the redraft (WR70) leagues and I think he will be an absolute value at that range.

Here's why I like him:

[*]Phenomenal speed

[*]Chip on his shoulder from being injured

[*]Josh McDaniels as new offensive coordinator. Josh has been prone to turn average WRs into top receivers. In looking at what he did with Brandon Lloyd, Donnie Avery plays in the same slot as Lloyd and has the speed to get great YAC. In a PPR, his targets and catches should exceed anything he has had in his past career.

Keep an eye on this guy as I think he could come out of nowhere this year.

Someone agrees with me.

People are writing this guy off after being the #1 WR drafted three years ago and having two VERY solid seasons as the Rams #1 WR despite having virtually no help and learning on the job, so to speak. Avery will sneak up on people. Keep your eye on him.

 

[Tanner9919]

Pos

Rank Pick Name Pos Team Overall SDev High Low Times

12 4.02 Wes Welker WR NE 31.8 4.8 3.01 6.04 211

13 4.02 Vince Jackson WR SD 32.3 5.0 2.09 6.01 370

14 4.08 Mike Williams WR TB 37.5 5.0 3.04 6.02 233

16 5.02 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI 42.5 5.6 3.07 7.05 214

18 5.07 Brandon Lloyd WR DEN 46.9 5.3 4.03 7.04 152

21 6.10 Santa Holmes WR NYJ 59.9 8.9 4.06 9.07 342

22 7.01 Dez Bryant WR DAL 60.6 8.7 4.07 9.03 426

25 7.03 Austin Collie WR IND 63.0 8.7 5.03 10.01 309

26 7.09 Sidney Rice WR MIN 69.4 8.6 5.07 10.02 223

29 8.05 Kenny Britt WR TEN 74.5 9.8 5.08 10.10 188

The table above is based on ten team PPR redraft leagues on fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

I think that every guy on this list has potential to be a top ten WR next year on a points-per-game basis and they can all be had late. They have warts that you'll need to work through to find the true gems, but given their price, I could see myself waiting until rd 4 or 5 this year to draft my first WR. The ones in bold especially stand out to me.

I love going against the trend and right now, the trend in PPR leagues is to go WR early. I like all the guys on the list above plus a few more possible gems in even later rounds as backups with upside: Steve Smiff (non-NYG), Jacoby Ford, Jordy Nelson, and dare I say, Plax Burress or even Randy Moss depending on where they land.

Just some food for thought for some of the rest of you that also have had a leaning, especially in recent years, towards taking WRs in Rds 1-3. This might be a year to reach for that potential stud QB or RB instead.

ETA: Wanted to add two more late guys that could be gems - whoever becomes the Rams #1 WR and Big Mike Williams (stealing Waldman's thunder).

excuse me for saying it but I think you're nuts if you view Brandon Lloyd as a potential top ten WR in 2011..Steve Smith was barely top ten when John Fox coached Carolina...sorry to say it but Lloyd screams one-year-wonder like no one else in the NFL in 2011..last season's stats were 100% the result of McDaniels coaching philosophy..

now, if you want to talk Danny Amendola or one of the other Rams' receivers ( or a signed F/A) sneaking into the top 10 because of the Rams hiring of Josh McDaniels as OC, I'll buy that..I'd even bet one of these Rams receivers will catch more balls than Lloyd..but in no way will Lloyd be a top 10 PPR WR with John Fox as HC, or with Tebow as starting QB..there is a fundamental shift in offense for Denver - much more running, much less passing - it's Fox's style.

much of the same holds true for BMW - the 'Hawks were more passy happy in 2010..you're going to see more running in 2011 - probably a lot more - which is why they've changed OC's.

if you want a sneaky late round pick that could vault into the top ten:

Pierre Garcon..one hard-hit for Clark and/or Collie, and Garcon is once again the #2 option in the most receiver friendly offense in the NFL..

Jacoby Ford

Santana Moss - 4th in the NFL in recs last season,apparently gets no love..

Manningham if the Giants don't go after another F/A WR

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Steve Smith was barely top ten when John Fox coached Carolina...

While I am not a Lloyd fan either, Steve Smith finished as the No. 1 overall WR under Fox and so did Mushin Muhammad during the season that Steve Smith was injured in Week 1.

 

[Mainevent]

Here is a recently finished 12 team PPR redraft1.08 8 Johnson, Andre HOU WR1.1 10 White, Roddy ATL WR1.11 11 Johnson, Calvin DET WR2.02 14 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR2.03 15 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR2.05 17 Wayne, Reggie IND WR2.09 21 Jennings, Greg GBP WR2.1 22 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR2.12 24 Wallace, Mike PIT WR3.02 26 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR3.05 29 Austin, Miles DAL WR3.09 33 Williams, Mike TBB WR3.1 34 Marshall, Brandon MIA WR3.12 36 Welker, Wes NEP WR4.02 38 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR4.05 41 Colston, Marques NOS WR4.07 43 Johnson, Steve BUF WR4.09 45 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR4.11 47 Bryant, Dez DAL WR4.12 48 Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR5.01 49 Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR5.03 51 Collie, Austin IND WR5.05 53 Harvin, Percy MIN WR5.07 55 Boldin, Anquan BAL WR6.01 61 Garcon, Pierre IND WR6.04 64 Britt, Kenny TEN WR6.06 66 Rice, Sidney MIN WR6.07 67 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR6.08 68 Knox, Johnny CHI WR6.09 69 Green, A.J. CIN WR ®6.11 71 Manningham, Mario NYG WR7.03 75 Thomas, Mike JAC WR7.04 76 Jones, Julio ATL WR ®7.06 78 Moss, Randy TEN WR7.09 81 Smith, Steve CAR WR7.12 84 Williams, Mike SEA WR8.02 86 Ford, Jacoby OAK WR8.05 89 Smith, Steve NYG WR8.06 90 Moss, Santana WAS WR8.11 95 Amendola, Danny STL WR9.03 99 Bess, Davone MIA WR9.1 106 Branch, Deion NEP WR9.12 108 Meachem, Robert NOS WR10.01 109 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR10.04 112 Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR10.07 115 Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR11.01 121 Little, Greg CLE WR ®11.1 130 Ward, Hines PIT WR12.01 133 Moore, Lance NOS WR12.02 134 Mason, Derrick BAL WR12.05 137 Clayton, Mark STL WR12.06 138 Breaston, Steve ARI WR12.07 139 Jones, James GBP WR12.1 142 Simpson, Jerome CIN WR12.12 144 Floyd, Malcom SDC WR13.02 146 Alexander, Danario STL WR13.04 148 Baldwin, Jon KCC WR ®13.06 150 Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR13.07 151 Tate, Brandon NEP WR13.09 153 Driver, Donald GBP WR13.11 155 Bennett, Earl CHI WR14.03 159 Evans, Lee BUF WR14.05 161 Royal, Eddie DEN WR14.06 162 Hill, Jason JAC WR14.08 164 Benn, Arrelious TBB WR14.1 166 Burleson, Nate DET WR15.02 170 Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR ®15.04 172 Owens, Terrell CIN WR15.09 177 Avery, Donnie STL WR16.02 182 Burress, Plaxico FA* WR16.03 183 Jones, Jacoby HOU WR16.07 187 Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR16.08 188 Armstrong, Anthony WAS WR16.09 189 Brown, Vincent SDC WR ®16.12 192 Roberts, Andre ARI WR17.01 193 Tate, Golden SEA WR17.03 195 Shipley, Jordan CIN WR17.04 196 Smith, Torrey BAL WR ®18.04 208 Gettis, David CAR WR18.08 212 Walter, Kevin HOU WR18.1 214 White, Blair IND WR18.11 215 Morgan, Josh SFO WR19.03 219 Young, Titus DET WR ®

Calvin Johnson went pretty late

E. Sanders, PIT WR didn't even get drafted...

 

[TheWick]

Here is a recently finished 12 team PPR redraft1.08 8 Johnson, Andre HOU WR1.1 10 White, Roddy ATL WR1.11 11 Johnson, Calvin DET WR2.02 14 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR2.03 15 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR2.05 17 Wayne, Reggie IND WR2.09 21 Jennings, Greg GBP WR2.1 22 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR2.12 24 Wallace, Mike PIT WR3.02 26 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR3.05 29 Austin, Miles DAL WR3.09 33 Williams, Mike TBB WR3.1 34 Marshall, Brandon MIA WR3.12 36 Welker, Wes NEP WR4.02 38 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR4.05 41 Colston, Marques NOS WR4.07 43 Johnson, Steve BUF WR4.09 45 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR4.11 47 Bryant, Dez DAL WR4.12 48 Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR5.01 49 Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR5.03 51 Collie, Austin IND WR5.05 53 Harvin, Percy MIN WR5.07 55 Boldin, Anquan BAL WR6.01 61 Garcon, Pierre IND WR6.04 64 Britt, Kenny TEN WR6.06 66 Rice, Sidney MIN WR6.07 67 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR6.08 68 Knox, Johnny CHI WR6.09 69 Green, A.J. CIN WR ®6.11 71 Manningham, Mario NYG WR7.03 75 Thomas, Mike JAC WR7.04 76 Jones, Julio ATL WR ®7.06 78 Moss, Randy TEN WR7.09 81 Smith, Steve CAR WR7.12 84 Williams, Mike SEA WR8.02 86 Ford, Jacoby OAK WR8.05 89 Smith, Steve NYG WR8.06 90 Moss, Santana WAS WR8.11 95 Amendola, Danny STL WR9.03 99 Bess, Davone MIA WR9.1 106 Branch, Deion NEP WR9.12 108 Meachem, Robert NOS WR10.01 109 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR10.04 112 Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR10.07 115 Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR11.01 121 Little, Greg CLE WR ®11.1 130 Ward, Hines PIT WR12.01 133 Moore, Lance NOS WR12.02 134 Mason, Derrick BAL WR12.05 137 Clayton, Mark STL WR12.06 138 Breaston, Steve ARI WR12.07 139 Jones, James GBP WR12.1 142 Simpson, Jerome CIN WR12.12 144 Floyd, Malcom SDC WR13.02 146 Alexander, Danario STL WR13.04 148 Baldwin, Jon KCC WR ®13.06 150 Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR13.07 151 Tate, Brandon NEP WR13.09 153 Driver, Donald GBP WR13.11 155 Bennett, Earl CHI WR14.03 159 Evans, Lee BUF WR14.05 161 Royal, Eddie DEN WR14.06 162 Hill, Jason JAC WR14.08 164 Benn, Arrelious TBB WR14.1 166 Burleson, Nate DET WR15.02 170 Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR ®15.04 172 Owens, Terrell CIN WR15.09 177 Avery, Donnie STL WR16.02 182 Burress, Plaxico FA* WR16.03 183 Jones, Jacoby HOU WR16.07 187 Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR16.08 188 Armstrong, Anthony WAS WR16.09 189 Brown, Vincent SDC WR ®16.12 192 Roberts, Andre ARI WR17.01 193 Tate, Golden SEA WR17.03 195 Shipley, Jordan CIN WR17.04 196 Smith, Torrey BAL WR ®18.04 208 Gettis, David CAR WR18.08 212 Walter, Kevin HOU WR18.1 214 White, Blair IND WR18.11 215 Morgan, Josh SFO WR19.03 219 Young, Titus DET WR ®

Calvin Johnson went pretty late

E. Sanders, PIT WR didn't even get drafted...

We had a guy time out 3 times in this draft. One of those timeouts he picked Sanders and the commish added him to his team so it doesn't show up here. It was either at 10.08 or 15.05 not sure which.ETA - Sanders went at 12.04 in a higher stakes PPR league that is drafting now.

 

[finito]

Crabtree looks like he could be nice value.

 

[geoff8695]

 

[bulger2holt]

The Rams have too many #2 type of WR's to be effective in FFL. Too many good WR's but nobody great, plus they use the TE a lot. Josh wants to copy the Pats offense this year that's why they drafted Kendricks in rd 2. I wouldn't touch a Rams WR with a 10 foot pole. They also love the two rookies Pettis and Salas. And don't forget about Clayton and Alexander to go along with Avery, Gibson and Amendola. That's a friggen quagmire. I am passing on their WR's but will take a late flier on Kendricks. Bradford loves his TE's.

 

[Go Blue]

The Rams have too many #2 type of WR's to be effective in FFL. Too many good WR's but nobody great, plus they use the TE a lot. Josh wants to copy the Pats offense this year that's why they drafted Kendricks in rd 2. I wouldn't touch a Rams WR with a 10 foot pole. They also love the two rookies Pettis and Salas. And don't forget about Clayton and Alexander to go along with Avery, Gibson and Amendola. That's a friggen quagmire. I am passing on their WR's but will take a late flier on Kendricks. Bradford loves his TE's.

Just keep in mind that we'll have a much better picture of who to target as the season gets here. Gibson is probably going to be cut. I doubt anyone thinks the rookies are going to make an impact this year. Maybe in a normal year, but not with no off season. Someone out of Alexander, Clayton, Avery, or Amendola is going to make some fantasy noise this year. I'd say grabbing a couple of these guys late would be a good strategy.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

How about one of the Rams WRs...no telling which one but there could be some serious value in that passing game.

I agree and added their nameless #1 WR to the original post. Bradford is going to create stats for someone.

Assuming the Rams don't get a Rice type in FA I think the big beneficiary is the TE.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I'm gonna go with what another poster said above and I'm gonna look REALLY hard at Garçon. I think we could have just been a year late with him. Wayne isn't happy and is due to slow down sooner or later (maybe this year?) and Clark and Collie arent the healthiest guys out there.

 

[cr8f]

I'm gonna go with what another poster said above and I'm gonna look REALLY hard at Garçon. I think we could have just been a year late with him. Wayne isn't happy and is due to slow down sooner or later (maybe this year?) and Clark and Collie arent the healthiest guys out there.

If the Colts are smart they'll move Collie out wide and make Garcon the 3rd WR.

 

[baconisgood]

The Rams have too many #2 type of WR's to be effective in FFL. Too many good WR's but nobody great, plus they use the TE a lot. Josh wants to copy the Pats offense this year that's why they drafted Kendricks in rd 2. I wouldn't touch a Rams WR with a 10 foot pole. They also love the two rookies Pettis and Salas. And don't forget about Clayton and Alexander to go along with Avery, Gibson and Amendola. That's a friggen quagmire. I am passing on their WR's but will take a late flier on Kendricks. Bradford loves his TE's.

Just keep in mind that we'll have a much better picture of who to target as the season gets here. Gibson is probably going to be cut. I doubt anyone thinks the rookies are going to make an impact this year. Maybe in a normal year, but not with no off season. Someone out of Alexander, Clayton, Avery, or Amendola is going to make some fantasy noise this year. I'd say grabbing a couple of these guys late would be a good strategy.

I don't like grabbing any of those guys at all (except in deep leagues). With so much uncertainty there is a good chance the guy, or even guys, you grab don't do anything while the real gem (if there even is one) is available on the waiver wire.

And as for McDaniels making a Wes Welker type

To clarify one point Denver did not have a “Wes Welker” type receiver in McDaniels’ two years there. Both years their #2 WR was Jabar Gaffney and he averaged ~ 60/800/2. That isn’t exactly what people have in mind for the WW role. Importantly Denver even had a guy that looked like he could be the WW role in Eddie Royal- he put up 91/980/5 as a rookie which does look a lot like WW type numbers. Royal managed 96/972/3 the next two years COMBINED under McDaniels.

Thoughts

 

[geoff8695]

I'm gonna go with what another poster said above and I'm gonna look REALLY hard at Garçon. I think we could have just been a year late with him. Wayne isn't happy and is due to slow down sooner or later (maybe this year?) and Clark and Collie arent the healthiest guys out there.

Not everyone understood the learning curve involved as they debated Garcon's worth over the last two seasons. It was always going to take two to three seasons for this Division 3 prospect to mature in his role as an outside WR in a Peyton Manning led Colts offense. 2011 will be his 3rd season in that role, after injuries hampered his early to midseason progress he ended up finishing the 2010 regular season and playoffs very strong. Not sure how late he can be had but there is certainly potential for a breakout.

 

[fightingillini]

I've liked taking flyers on proven WRs that many guys are down on this year. Specifically Hines Ward, Donald Driver, and Derick Mason. These guys can easily be top 20 if they stay healthy.

These 3 guys have a total of 5 top 20 finishes in the last 4 seasons combined, with the highest finish being 15th by Hines Ward in 2008. I agree that they can be had late, but I doubt any of them finish inside the top 20.

No reason to draft these guys at their ADP IMO. I would rather gamble on Jordy Nelson or Jacoby Ford or Donnie Avery.

 

[LawFitz]

Garcon's hands scare me, but his athleticism is special. With situation taken into account, he's a faster James Jones, but Jones is another guy who's hands just bother me.

A guy I am liking who has also had suspect hands in the past is Kenny Britt, but his QB situation is far worse than the two just mentioned. That is offset to a degree by the fact that he's by far the primary WR on his team and his height combined with his athleticism give him a distinct advantage in the RZ. But we saw last year what poor QB play did to similar big bodied talents in ARI and MIA so obviously the rookie QB is a major concern.