PPR dynasty draft- whats your 1st round look like? (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

Let's assume 16 teams. Point per reception to make it interesting and that seems to be the trend. Standard start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE. Mine:

1. Adrian Peterson- too good even if the ppr hurts him quite a bit

2. Larry Fitzgerald- tough choice among the next three, kinda 2A, 2B and 2C

3. Calvin Johnson- super talented just i dont trust the Lions fully

4. Andre Johnson- C is just as good as A and B

5. SJax- yeah i'm still a believer, only guy except ADP capable of 2000 yards and double digit TDs imo

6. MJD- time to shine, Taylor no longer in his way

7. Gore- running/receiving monster. body older than his age

8. Chris Johnson- a lot like MJD- faster but less powerful

9. Matt Forte- not as talented imo as the guys above him but hard to knock his ppr numbers last year

10. Steve Smith- heads up tier two among WRs. a little older than the top 3 but can put up similar numbers

11. Drew Brees- high flying offense, just a little better than everyone else. might be high but he wins weeks by himself

12. Greg Jennings- perfect offense, stability at QB, only 26

13. Brandon Marshall- ppr terror, great offense, off the field is a concern

14. Anquan Boldin- situation bears watching. could drop if he ends up on a poor team

15. DeAngelo Williams- monster this year, would be higher if Stewart wasnt breathing down his neck.

16. Tie Michael Turner and Marion Barber- Turner is the workhorse but gets no reception love, Barber has a lot of competition and carries probably won't top 250 but he gets the goalline and a number of catches.

 

[EBF]

Good question. There are a few different ways to approach a dynasty draft. If you just want to win now, then guys like Randy Moss and Brian Westbrook should be early considerations because they offer high PPG potential. However, I find that anyone near 30 years old has a crippled trade value, so I'm inclined to place a high premium on youth if for no other reason than because your leaguemates simply won't pay market value for older players.

My list would be WR-heavy for two main reasons: WRs don't get hurt as often as RBs and there are simply more elite WRs than RBs in the league.

1. Larry Fitzgerald

2. Calvin Johnson

3. Greg Jennings

4. Adrian Peterson

5. Andre Johnson

6. Brandon Marshall

7. Eddie Royal

8. Maurice Jones-Drew

9. Steven Jackson

10. Chris Johnson

11. Reggie Wayne

12. Steve Smith

13. Anquan Boldin

14. Frank Gore

15. Marques Colston

16. Randy Moss

 

[fruity pebbles]

Good question. There are a few different ways to approach a dynasty draft. If you just want to win now, then guys like Randy Moss and Brian Westbrook should be early considerations because they offer high PPG potential. However, I find that anyone near 30 years old has a crippled trade value, so I'm inclined to place a high premium on youth if for no other reason than because your leaguemates simply won't pay market value for older players. My list would be WR-heavy for two main reasons: WRs don't get hurt as often as RBs and there are simply more elite WRs than RBs in the league. 1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Greg Jennings4. Adrian Peterson5. Andre Johnson6. Brandon Marshall7. Eddie Royal8. Maurice Jones-Drew9. Steven Jackson10. Chris Johnson11. Reggie Wayne12. Steve Smith13. Anquan Boldin14. Frank Gore15. Marques Colston16. Randy Moss

like the list. Jennings seems high to me especially over a monster like AJ who can score 30 more points on receptions alone.

 

[EBF]

Good question. There are a few different ways to approach a dynasty draft. If you just want to win now, then guys like Randy Moss and Brian Westbrook should be early considerations because they offer high PPG potential. However, I find that anyone near 30 years old has a crippled trade value, so I'm inclined to place a high premium on youth if for no other reason than because your leaguemates simply won't pay market value for older players. My list would be WR-heavy for two main reasons: WRs don't get hurt as often as RBs and there are simply more elite WRs than RBs in the league. 1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Greg Jennings4. Adrian Peterson5. Andre Johnson6. Brandon Marshall7. Eddie Royal8. Maurice Jones-Drew9. Steven Jackson10. Chris Johnson11. Reggie Wayne12. Steve Smith13. Anquan Boldin14. Frank Gore15. Marques Colston16. Randy Moss

like the list. Jennings seems high to me especially over a monster like AJ who can score 30 more points on receptions alone.

You can make a good case for AJ over Jennings.I think Jennings is cut from the same cloth as Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Isaac Bruce. He could give you 80 catches and 1200+ yards for the next 6-7+ years. In the first round of my draft, I'm not necessarily looking to hit a home run. I'm just looking to find a reliable player who will contribute solid stats for a long time. Jennings fits the bill.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Good question. There are a few different ways to approach a dynasty draft. If you just want to win now, then guys like Randy Moss and Brian Westbrook should be early considerations because they offer high PPG potential. However, I find that anyone near 30 years old has a crippled trade value, so I'm inclined to place a high premium on youth if for no other reason than because your leaguemates simply won't pay market value for older players. My list would be WR-heavy for two main reasons: WRs don't get hurt as often as RBs and there are simply more elite WRs than RBs in the league. 1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Greg Jennings4. Adrian Peterson5. Andre Johnson6. Brandon Marshall7. Eddie Royal8. Maurice Jones-Drew9. Steven Jackson10. Chris Johnson11. Reggie Wayne12. Steve Smith13. Anquan Boldin14. Frank Gore15. Marques Colston16. Randy Moss

like the list. Jennings seems high to me especially over a monster like AJ who can score 30 more points on receptions alone.

You can make a good case for AJ over Jennings.I think Jennings is cut from the same cloth as Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Isaac Bruce. He could give you 80 catches and 1200+ yards for the next 6-7+ years. In the first round of my draft, I'm not necessarily looking to hit a home run. I'm just looking to find a reliable player who will contribute solid stats for a long time. Jennings fits the bill.

got it thanks

 

[big dawgs]

Wes Welker?

Pocket Hercules (MJD) also deserves to be higher (he is only 25).

SJAX has a lot of making up to do for last season if he wants to be in the top 10 again.

 

[EBF]

MJD and Steven Jackson are both young players with top shelf talent, but they also take too many hits for my liking. I think the WRs offer a little more stability, which is why I have several of them ranked above Jackson and Drew.

 

[Buckna]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

 

[fruity pebbles]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

not sure about that. I've got 8 RBs and 7 WRs in my top 16. Seems pretty balanced. Granted that's only my ranking

 

[EBF]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

 

[Captain_Apocalypse]

Seriously? Not 1 QB in the first round? This IS dynasty right? Just seems there should be a QB or 2 in there. PPR or not there are only a few elite QB's you might think that makes them kinda valuable? If not in the first round, where do you take them? Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Ryan, Roethlesberger, Eli, ...no QB's? I mean, it is possible, but I would say thats a mistake. A good QB is just too hard to come by.

 

[moderated]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I'm surprised Andre Johnson isn't ranked higher. He's the only receiver who has stability at QB (by that I mean he scores mammoth points whether it's Schaub or Rosenfels behind center). I'd be very happy with him as my #1 pick, so I'd look to trade down to #5 or so if I had an early pick.

I also agree with the high placement of so many WRs. The top RBs have changed a lot from last year to this year, but the same great WRs are still there.

 

[kremenull]

These are some of the most unrealistic draft projections I've ever seen....PPR or not, this many WRs in the top 16 or so picks is just ludicrous.....especially at the top of the draft like that......Are u guys kidding or something?

 

[BuckeyeArt]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

That may be true but it is far easier to get a top WR than a top RB in a rookie draft. When you look at the list above, 6 of the 11 WR's could have been drafted outside the 1st round of a rookie draft. The same can't be said for RB's.

 

[EBF]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

That may be true but it is far easier to get a top WR than a top RB in a rookie draft. When you look at the list above, 6 of the 11 WR's could have been drafted outside the 1st round of a rookie draft. The same can't be said for RB's.

Sure, but the rookie draft is a gamble and you'll probably have to wait 2-3 years to get peak production from your WR prospect whereas a rookie RB can step in and produce right away if he lands in a starting role. In PPR, elite WRs usually score as many PPG as elite RBs. They play for longer and get hurt less frequently. If you're interested in long term success, I'd much rather have Larry Fitzgerald than Adrian Peterson. Not only is Fitz going to outscore Peterson, but he's probably going to play for longer with fewer games missed because of injury.

 

[Buckna]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

See, I wonder if it's really true that turnover at WR is so much less than RB's? I honestly don't know the answer to this question.Look at the top 10 WR's this year: only 3 of them were in the top 10 last year. Compare 2007 to 2006, only 3 names in common again. Compare 2008 to 2005: only Fitz and Boldin appear both years. I don't think anyone disputes that WR's in general have longer career's, but are we now over-valuing longevity? There's definite value in a WR that plays 3 or 4 more years than a RB and stays in the top 36 WRs most years, but is the inconsistency of the points they score on a year to year basis not given enough weight? What is worth more: a WR that is in the top 10 once every few years and then somewhere in the top 30 the rest or a RB that gives you top 10 production for 3-4 years?These questions and more are some of things I'm mulling over this offseason. I'm not sure there's a straight forward answer.

 

[gianmarco]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

See, I wonder if it's really true that turnover at WR is so much less than RB's? I honestly don't know the answer to this question.Look at the top 10 WR's this year: only 3 of them were in the top 10 last year. Compare 2007 to 2006, only 3 names in common again. Compare 2008 to 2005: only Fitz and Boldin appear both years. I don't think anyone disputes that WR's in general have longer career's, but are we now over-valuing longevity? There's definite value in a WR that plays 3 or 4 more years than a RB and stays in the top 36 WRs most years, but is the inconsistency of the points they score on a year to year basis not given enough weight? What is worth more: a WR that is in the top 10 once every few years and then somewhere in the top 30 the rest or a RB that gives you top 10 production for 3-4 years?These questions and more are some of things I'm mulling over this offseason. I'm not sure there's a straight forward answer.

When comparing WRs vs. RBs and which has better staying power, I don't think it's correct to look how many of the top 10 WR's from last year repeated. What you need to do is look just 3 yrs ago at the top RB's and WR's and say "where are they now". Guys like TO, Moss, AJ, Fitz, Boldin are still there. For many years you could say the same about Harrison and Holt and H. Ward. You don't see that at RB except for very few guys like LT and Portis. Top rookies turn into guys like W. McGahee or Jamal Lewis in a short amount of time. Unless you can get the next LT, which at this point still looks like AP, then the chances of your RB having staying power at the top is not as good, IMO, as WR's.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's assume 16 teams. Point per reception to make it interesting and that seems to be the trend. Standard start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE. Mine:1. Adrian Peterson- too good even if the ppr hurts him quite a bit2. Larry Fitzgerald- tough choice among the next three, kinda 2A, 2B and 2C3. Calvin Johnson- super talented just i dont trust the Lions fully4. Andre Johnson- C is just as good as A and B5. SJax- yeah i'm still a believer, only guy except ADP capable of 2000 yards and double digit TDs imo6. MJD- time to shine, Taylor no longer in his way7. Gore- running/receiving monster. body older than his age8. Chris Johnson- a lot like MJD- faster but less powerful9. Matt Forte- not as talented imo as the guys above him but hard to knock his ppr numbers last year10. Steve Smith- heads up tier two among WRs. a little older than the top 3 but can put up similar numbers11. Drew Brees- high flying offense, just a little better than everyone else. might be high but he wins weeks by himself12. Greg Jennings- perfect offense, stability at QB, only 2613. Brandon Marshall- ppr terror, great offense, off the field is a concern14. Anquan Boldin- situation bears watching. could drop if he ends up on a poor team15. DeAngelo Williams- monster this year, would be higher if Stewart wasnt breathing down his neck.16. Tie Michael Turner and Marion Barber- Turner is the workhorse but gets no reception love, Barber has a lot of competition and carries probably won't top 250 but he gets the goalline and a number of catches.

This list is almost exactly like mine would be with only a couple minor exceptions:--I have MJD and SJax flip flopped, although splitting hairs.--I have Matt Forte flip flopped with DeAngelo. I prefer better production per touch despite fewer touches over more touches but less efficiency with those--I would put Randy Moss i S. Smith's spot. --I would have Turner at #16 ahead of Barber without worrying about it. Next guys in line: S. Smith, Colston, Barber....

 

[fruity pebbles]

Seriously? Not 1 QB in the first round? This IS dynasty right? Just seems there should be a QB or 2 in there. PPR or not there are only a few elite QB's you might think that makes them kinda valuable? If not in the first round, where do you take them? Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Ryan, Roethlesberger, Eli, ...no QB's? I mean, it is possible, but I would say thats a mistake. A good QB is just too hard to come by.

I had Drew Brees #11

 

[fruity pebbles]

These are some of the most unrealistic draft projections I've ever seen....PPR or not, this many WRs in the top 16 or so picks is just ludicrous.....especially at the top of the draft like that......Are u guys kidding or something?

Have you been in a ppr dynasty draft lately or tried to trade for a young stud WR in that type of league?

 

[Max Power]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

That may be true but it is far easier to get a top WR than a top RB in a rookie draft. When you look at the list above, 6 of the 11 WR's could have been drafted outside the 1st round of a rookie draft. The same can't be said for RB's.

Sure, but the rookie draft is a gamble and you'll probably have to wait 2-3 years to get peak production from your WR prospect whereas a rookie RB can step in and produce right away if he lands in a starting role. In PPR, elite WRs usually score as many PPG as elite RBs. They play for longer and get hurt less frequently. If you're interested in long term success, I'd much rather have Larry Fitzgerald than Adrian Peterson. Not only is Fitz going to outscore Peterson, but he's probably going to play for longer with fewer games missed because of injury.

Sure it's a gamble. But, it's still nearly impossible to come up with an elite RB unless you have one of the top draft picks. It's easier to get a top WR anywhere in the draft. And, like you pointed out, since RB's produce much faster, you can't cheaply trade for a young RB. They are usually already producing and their value is stil sky high. With a WR, you can likely trade for a young one who still may end up being elite at a much cheaper price.As far as PPG, it doesn't really matter if WR's score more than RB's because all WR's score more in that format. I'd bet that LT or Westbrook, the top 2 PPR RB's, have a higher VBD over the last 3 years than any WR.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

 

[EBF]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

Thomas Jones had a pretty good year.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

Thomas Jones had a pretty good year.

And he wasn't dirt cheap. In addition, it's very easy with hindsight. I imagine very few saw that at the beginning of the year and even fewer went into the year comfortable with him being their #1.

 

[Max Power]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

Thomas Jones had a pretty good year.

He sure did, but lets not forget the huge boost in value he got when you add a HOF QB to the backfield. Now the question still remains...what would you trade for him? and if you had him, what would you want for him?

 

[Black]

1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Greg Jennings4. Adrian Peterson5. Andre Johnson6. Brandon Marshall7. Eddie Royal8. Maurice Jones-Drew9. Steven Jackson10. Chris Johnson11. Reggie Wayne12. Steve Smith13. Anquan Boldin14. Frank Gore15. Marques Colston16. Randy Moss

I think Jennings is too high. Think he's below #13 on this list.No Roddy White?Eddie Royal, but no Welker? I think DEF are wise to Royal and Welker gets Brady back.No Housh? Look at what he did with a terrible QB in 2008 and I think he's back in the top 15 for sure.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Seriously? Not 1 QB in the first round? This IS dynasty right? Just seems there should be a QB or 2 in there. PPR or not there are only a few elite QB's you might think that makes them kinda valuable? If not in the first round, where do you take them? Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Ryan, Roethlesberger, Eli, ...no QB's? I mean, it is possible, but I would say thats a mistake. A good QB is just too hard to come by.

And yet, you just listed 6 off the top of your head - and you didn't even include Peyton, Brees, Aaron Rodgers.... Seems like they are not as hard to come by as you may think.

 

[FUBAR]

Seriously? Not 1 QB in the first round? This IS dynasty right? Just seems there should be a QB or 2 in there. PPR or not there are only a few elite QB's you might think that makes them kinda valuable? If not in the first round, where do you take them? Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Ryan, Roethlesberger, Eli, ...no QB's? I mean, it is possible, but I would say thats a mistake. A good QB is just too hard to come by.

And yet, you just listed 6 off the top of your head - and you didn't even include Peyton, Brees, Aaron Rodgers.... Seems like they are not as hard to come by as you may think.

I used to think I'd take an elite QB in his 3rd-6th year over almost any WR, but that's no longer the case in most formats. I think you're all valuing WRs too highly, at least guys like Eddie Royal at #7? I highly doubt you'd get MJD, SJax, CJ3, etc. for him. I like the kid, but that's just nuts.

 

[comfortably numb]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

not sure about that. I've got 8 RBs and 7 WRs in my top 16. Seems pretty balanced. Granted that's only my ranking

I know what he is saying, seems I always remember the guy at 1.11/2.2 or 1.12/2.1 taking the 1st 2 WR's off the board.(Moss, Harrison, Owens)I think most drafts would still lean heavy on RB's in the 1st, but yea, trying to trade for a WR in a PPR league...you need to bring a big RB to the table.

 

[comfortably numb]

On a side note this is the 1st year I can honestly say that the #2 pick and #10 pick could be interchanged and I wouldn't blink.

I could see Fitz at 2 or 10

I could see Brees at 2 or 10

I could see Forte, Sjax, MJD, AJ, CJ's etc...

 

[travdogg]

My top-16 goes like this:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Maurice Jones-Drew(could make a case for him being #1)

3. Chris Johnson

4. Larry Fitzgerald

5. Steven Jackson

6. Frank Gore

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Drew Brees(QBs are underrated in PPR)

9. Andre Johnson

10. Michael Turner(underrated in PPR leagues)

11. Reggie Wayne(should be much better without Marvin)

12. DeAngelo Williams

13. Marshawn Lynch(I'm still expecting a big breakout from him)

14. Matt Forte

15. Roddy White

16. Brandon Marshall(he'd be higher if not for potential off field issues)

 

[EBF]

1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Greg Jennings4. Adrian Peterson5. Andre Johnson6. Brandon Marshall7. Eddie Royal8. Maurice Jones-Drew9. Steven Jackson10. Chris Johnson11. Reggie Wayne12. Steve Smith13. Anquan Boldin14. Frank Gore15. Marques Colston16. Randy Moss

I think Jennings is too high. Think he's below #13 on this list.No Roddy White?Eddie Royal, but no Welker? I think DEF are wise to Royal and Welker gets Brady back.No Housh? Look at what he did with a terrible QB in 2008 and I think he's back in the top 15 for sure.

Jennings is underappreciated. All he's done since entering the league is produce. With Driver on the downslope of his career and Rodgers on the cusp of becoming an elite passer, I think Jennings is poised to become a perennial top 5 threat like Reggie Wayne. He's a franchise player in PPR dynasty and well worth a top 5-10 pick. I like Roddy White and would consider him in the 10-20 range. Royal is a budding star with top notch physical tools and a great QB. He doesn't have the upside of AJ or S. Smith, but he's going to be very good for a long time. Definitely a nucleus player in PPR. I think Welker derives a lot of his value from the system. I don't see him as an elite player, so even though he's had two great years in a row, I wouldn't personally want to make him a cornerstone of my FF team. Housh will turn 32 next season and isn't even the best WR on his own team. He doesn't belong in this discussion.

 

[EBF]

Seriously? Not 1 QB in the first round? This IS dynasty right? Just seems there should be a QB or 2 in there. PPR or not there are only a few elite QB's you might think that makes them kinda valuable? If not in the first round, where do you take them? Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Ryan, Roethlesberger, Eli, ...no QB's? I mean, it is possible, but I would say thats a mistake. A good QB is just too hard to come by.

And yet, you just listed 6 off the top of your head - and you didn't even include Peyton, Brees, Aaron Rodgers.... Seems like they are not as hard to come by as you may think.

I used to think I'd take an elite QB in his 3rd-6th year over almost any WR, but that's no longer the case in most formats. I think you're all valuing WRs too highly, at least guys like Eddie Royal at #7? I highly doubt you'd get MJD, SJax, CJ3, etc. for him. I like the kid, but that's just nuts.

My list isn't about trade value. It's about actual value.I'm sure a Steven Jackson owner would reject an offer of Eddie Royal straight up for SJ. That doesn't mean Royal is less valuable than Jackson. Royal will yield similar PPG numbers over the course of Jackson's prime and he'll play a lot longer with fewer games missed due to injury.

Two years ago you would've been laughed out of the room if you offered Andre Johnson for Larry Johnson straight up. Now how does that look?

In dynasty, you need to anticipate the future instead of reacting to the past.

 

[FUBAR]

Seriously? Not 1 QB in the first round? This IS dynasty right? Just seems there should be a QB or 2 in there. PPR or not there are only a few elite QB's you might think that makes them kinda valuable? If not in the first round, where do you take them? Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Ryan, Roethlesberger, Eli, ...no QB's? I mean, it is possible, but I would say thats a mistake. A good QB is just too hard to come by.

And yet, you just listed 6 off the top of your head - and you didn't even include Peyton, Brees, Aaron Rodgers.... Seems like they are not as hard to come by as you may think.

I used to think I'd take an elite QB in his 3rd-6th year over almost any WR, but that's no longer the case in most formats. I think you're all valuing WRs too highly, at least guys like Eddie Royal at #7? I highly doubt you'd get MJD, SJax, CJ3, etc. for him. I like the kid, but that's just nuts.

My list isn't about trade value. It's about actual value.I'm sure a Steven Jackson owner would reject an offer of Eddie Royal straight up for SJ. That doesn't mean Royal is less valuable than Jackson. Royal will yield similar PPG numbers over the course of Jackson's prime and he'll play a lot longer with fewer games missed due to injury.

Two years ago you would've been laughed out of the room if you offered Andre Johnson for Larry Johnson straight up. Now how does that look?

In dynasty, you need to anticipate the future instead of reacting to the past.

Spare the lecture bucky, I'm well aware of how to form a dynasty team. Eddie Royal is not AJ. Nice player, but I'd love to see the league where he's drafted in the first round of the initial draft. We disagree on how well he'll produce, I see WR2 stats at best, you seem to think Denver will have two top 6 WRs, you have him above Boldin, Roddy White, and Bowe.

Just curious, where would you have drafted Braylon Edwards last year? Now where is he?

One of my "rules" in an initial draft is to not draft rookies or players who have only produced 1 year (I know, he was a rookie, so that's not a knock on him) high. I need to see them do it at least 2 years before they're that important to my team. Again, I just couldn't take him over proven studs like Boldin, among others - and that's not including the elders.

 

[twr]

Royal is a budding star with top notch physical tools and a great QB. He doesn't have the upside of AJ or S. Smith, but he's going to be very good for a long time. Definitely a nucleus player in PPR.

just traded

ward

1.11

2.2

for

EDDDDDIEEEEEEEE

i think its value on both sides, ward would be a starting RB for him, and he is in rebuilding mode....

AND EDDIE ROUNDS OUT AS MY #4 WR...

1. calvin

2. bowe

3. RODDY

4. EDDDDIEEE

pretty happy.

 

[EBF]

Eddie Royal is not AJ. Nice player, but I'd love to see the league where he's drafted in the first round of the initial draft. We disagree on how well he'll produce, I see WR2 stats at best, you seem to think Denver will have two top 6 WRs, you have him above Boldin, Roddy White, and Bowe.

Boldin is great, but he's getting older and his playing style takes a heavy toll on his body. You can make a case for Roddy White over Royal. He certainly had a better year last season. Bowe is good, but I think Royal is better.

Just curious, where would you have drafted Braylon Edwards last year? Now where is he?

It's irrelevant to the discussion, but if you really want to know, I didn't pick him in any leagues last year.

One of my "rules" in an initial draft is to not draft rookies or players who have only produced 1 year (I know, he was a rookie, so that's not a knock on him) high. I need to see them do it at least 2 years before they're that important to my team.

Your rules aren't my rules. The rankings I posted were my rankings, not your rankings. If you don't think Royal is worth a top 10 pick, don't use a top 10 pick on him. I think he's a great player and I'd be comfortable using an early pick to get him.

 

[FUBAR]

Just curious, where would you have drafted Braylon Edwards last year? Now where is he?

It's irrelevant to the discussion, but if you really want to know, I didn't pick him in any leagues last year.

It's not completely irrelevant, when you consider the risk in taking a player who has only one year of success. Too often people see the upside and not the risk, I don't see the upside of taking Royal as the 6th WR, I just don't think he'll reach the level where that is good value.

One of my "rules" in an initial draft is to not draft rookies or players who have only produced 1 year (I know, he was a rookie, so that's not a knock on him) high. I need to see them do it at least 2 years before they're that important to my team.

Your rules aren't my rules. The rankings I posted were my rankings, not your rankings. If you don't think Royal is worth a top 10 pick, don't use a top 10 pick on him. I think he's a great player and I'd be comfortable using an early pick to get him.

Fair enough, I was more looking to see why you think he's worth that high a pick. Like I said, I like the player enough, he'd be on my 2nd round list, but you are much higher on him than anyone else I've seen. Maybe you know more than anyone. FWIW,1. AD2. AJ3. Fitz4. MJD5. CJ26. SJax7. CJ38. Forte9. Brees10. Gore11. Jennings12. Turner13. Marshall14. Lynch15. Roddy16. DWillObviously I have a few players on here whose track record is one season, but I view their upside as higher than where I'd pick them, so the risk is worth it. I know DWill would be long gone by #16, but JStew keeps me from taking him higher.

 

[Crippler]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

Thomas Jones had a pretty good year.

And he wasn't dirt cheap. In addition, it's very easy with hindsight. I imagine very few saw that at the beginning of the year and even fewer went into the year comfortable with him being their #1.

Jones was dirt cheap before this year. One guy in my home league tried to trade him away and could not get a 2nd rounder for him. He is glad he did not in the endI agree with the WR debate here. Even though I also would not trade for Eddie Royal. But than I dont get the Drew Jones love either.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

Thomas Jones had a pretty good year.

And he wasn't dirt cheap. In addition, it's very easy with hindsight. I imagine very few saw that at the beginning of the year and even fewer went into the year comfortable with him being their #1.

Jones was dirt cheap before this year. One guy in my home league tried to trade him away and could not get a 2nd rounder for him. He is glad he did not in the end

Sure, there may have been a moment last year when he was cheap. But as you pointed out, that didn't occur at the same time that someone would have been comfortable calling him their starter. The "use the older vet" is great in theory, but only after you see which older vet surprises everyone. At that point, he is no longer cheap.

 

[Black]

Jennings is underappreciated. All he's done since entering the league is produce. With Driver on the downslope of his career and Rodgers on the cusp of becoming an elite passer, I think Jennings is poised to become a perennial top 5 threat like Reggie Wayne. He's a franchise player in PPR dynasty and well worth a top 5-10 pick. I like Roddy White and would consider him in the 10-20 range. Royal is a budding star with top notch physical tools and a great QB. He doesn't have the upside of AJ or S. Smith, but he's going to be very good for a long time. Definitely a nucleus player in PPR. I think Welker derives a lot of his value from the system. I don't see him as an elite player, so even though he's had two great years in a row, I wouldn't personally want to make him a cornerstone of my FF team. Housh will turn 32 next season and isn't even the best WR on his own team. He doesn't belong in this discussion.

Agree Jennings has potential, but I just see him more as a deep threat than a PPR stud. He did have 80 receptions in 2008 which was about 13th in the league for WRs, is young, and will be getting more attention as Driver fades. He is definitely in the top 8 WRs.I think Roddy is a top 5-8 also.I didn't realize Royal had 91 receptions this year. Wow. As a rookie. He's a top 5, esp in Dynasty.Housh has put up about 100 receptions/year for a few years, even with this last horrible year, he had 92. I do think he's a better WR than CJ, and at 32, probably has 4-5 years left.BTW, what about D. Bowe, R. Wayne?Ma Forte, S.Slaton? Assuming their workloads decrease next year?

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I buy the WR argument. Here are the top 15 WRs from 2005:

RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD

1 Steve Smith CAR 26 5 4 25 1 103 1563 12 237 120

2 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 22 2 8 41 0 103 1409 10 205 88

3 Santana Moss WAS 26 5 3 -3 0 84 1483 9 202 85

4 Chad Johnson CIN 27 5 5 33 0 97 1432 9 201 84

5 Joey Galloway TB 34 11 2 4 0 83 1287 10 189 72

6 Torry Holt STL 29 7 1 2 0 102 1331 9 187 71

7 Chris Chambers MIA 27 5 12 92 0 82 1118 11 187 70

8 Anquan Boldin ARI 25 3 12 45 0 102 1402 7 187 70

9 Marvin Harrison IND 33 10 0 0 0 82 1146 12 187 70

10 Hines Ward PIT 29 8 3 10 0 69 975 11 165 48

11 Plaxico Burress NYG 28 6 0 0 0 76 1214 7 163 47

12 Terry Glenn DAL 31 10 2 -4 1 62 1136 7 161 44

13 Donald Driver GB 30 7 2 13 0 86 1221 5 153 37

14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN 28 5 8 62 1 78 956 7 150 33

15 Randy Moss OAK 28 8 0 0 0 60 1005 8 149 32

Most of these guys are still excelling, and the ones who aren't could for the most part be expected to decline because of age (Galloway, Holt, Harrison, Glenn).

By contrast, the top 15 RBs in 2005 were:

RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD

1 Shaun Alexander SEA 28 6 370 1880 27 15 78 1 364 221

2 Larry Johnson KC 26 3 336 1750 20 33 343 1 335 192

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 26 5 339 1462 18 51 370 2 321 177

4 Tiki Barber NYG 30 9 357 1860 9 54 530 2 305 162

5 Edgerrin James IND 27 7 360 1506 13 44 337 1 268 125

6 Clinton Portis WAS 24 4 352 1516 11 30 216 0 245 102

7 Rudi Johnson CIN 26 4 337 1458 12 23 90 0 227 84

8 LaMont Jordan OAK 27 5 272 1025 9 70 563 2 225 82

9 Thomas Jones CHI 27 6 314 1335 9 26 143 0 202 59

10 Mike Anderson DEN 32 6 239 1014 12 18 212 1 201 58

11 Steven Jackson STL 22 2 254 1046 8 43 320 2 197 54

12 Warrick Dunn ATL 30 9 280 1416 3 29 220 1 188 45

13 Willis McGahee BUF 24 2 325 1247 5 28 178 0 173 29

14 Reuben Droughns CLE 27 5 309 1232 2 39 369 0 172 29

15 Willie Parker PIT 25 2 255 1202 4 18 218 1 172 29

The difference when I look at these two lists is not just the fact that many more of the '05 RBs are nobodys now, but that back in '05 few of us would've expected them to be nobodys now. I'd be willing to bet dynasty leagues that started up prior to the '06 season saw Alexander, LJ, LT, Tiki, Edge, Portis, Rudi, Jordan, TJ, SJax, McGahee, Droughns, and Parker all drafted in the first round or two. People had the expectation that they'd produce for a long time, and there are NONE on this list that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a dynasty league initial draft (except Jackson) this year, where there are still at least five of the top 15 WRs from '05 that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a draft today.

Fantasy football involves a lot of luck, and often all you can do is try to tilt the odds in your favor as much as possible. I'm sure someone could (or has) done a study on this, and my sample size of '05 and '08 is small, but as many above have stated, I'd take the safe WR picks over the risky RB picks any day.

Honestly, where do think a guy like Frank Gore will be in 3 years? Unless you're a Gore family member or a blind 49ers homer, I think if you answer this question honestly you think you'd be lucky to get two good, healthy years out of the coming three from him, and after the 3 year mark, he'll be untradeable. Where will Greg Jennings, Eddie Royal, Roddy White be in 3 years? Probably giving you consistent, top 15 production over each of those three years, with the prospect of consistent, top 15-20 production over the following 3-5 years. Erring on the side of WRs seems like a no brainer to me.

 

[EBF]

Jennings is underappreciated. All he's done since entering the league is produce. With Driver on the downslope of his career and Rodgers on the cusp of becoming an elite passer, I think Jennings is poised to become a perennial top 5 threat like Reggie Wayne. He's a franchise player in PPR dynasty and well worth a top 5-10 pick. I like Roddy White and would consider him in the 10-20 range. Royal is a budding star with top notch physical tools and a great QB. He doesn't have the upside of AJ or S. Smith, but he's going to be very good for a long time. Definitely a nucleus player in PPR. I think Welker derives a lot of his value from the system. I don't see him as an elite player, so even though he's had two great years in a row, I wouldn't personally want to make him a cornerstone of my FF team. Housh will turn 32 next season and isn't even the best WR on his own team. He doesn't belong in this discussion.

Agree Jennings has potential, but I just see him more as a deep threat than a PPR stud. He did have 80 receptions in 2008 which was about 13th in the league for WRs, is young, and will be getting more attention as Driver fades. He is definitely in the top 8 WRs.I think Roddy is a top 5-8 also.I didn't realize Royal had 91 receptions this year. Wow. As a rookie. He's a top 5, esp in Dynasty.Housh has put up about 100 receptions/year for a few years, even with this last horrible year, he had 92. I do think he's a better WR than CJ, and at 32, probably has 4-5 years left.BTW, what about D. Bowe, R. Wayne?Ma Forte, S.Slaton? Assuming their workloads decrease next year?

Wayne is at #11 on my list. He's a great option in redraft, but his age decreases his dynasty value a little bit. He could be Torry Holt in 2-3 years. Bowe is a good player, but I'm not convinced that he's a great player. I view him more as a WR2 in FF leagues. I don't have enough faith in Forte and Slaton to take them this high. You have to give them credit for having great rookie years, but I think there's still some Anthony Thomas risk with those two. I feel a little bit more secure about Chris Johnson because he was a higher draft pick and he's a much freakier athlete (elite combine numbers).

 

[Buckna]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

See, I wonder if it's really true that turnover at WR is so much less than RB's? I honestly don't know the answer to this question.Look at the top 10 WR's this year: only 3 of them were in the top 10 last year. Compare 2007 to 2006, only 3 names in common again. Compare 2008 to 2005: only Fitz and Boldin appear both years. I don't think anyone disputes that WR's in general have longer career's, but are we now over-valuing longevity? There's definite value in a WR that plays 3 or 4 more years than a RB and stays in the top 36 WRs most years, but is the inconsistency of the points they score on a year to year basis not given enough weight? What is worth more: a WR that is in the top 10 once every few years and then somewhere in the top 30 the rest or a RB that gives you top 10 production for 3-4 years?These questions and more are some of things I'm mulling over this offseason. I'm not sure there's a straight forward answer.

When comparing WRs vs. RBs and which has better staying power, I don't think it's correct to look how many of the top 10 WR's from last year repeated. What you need to do is look just 3 yrs ago at the top RB's and WR's and say "where are they now". Guys like TO, Moss, AJ, Fitz, Boldin are still there. For many years you could say the same about Harrison and Holt and H. Ward. You don't see that at RB except for very few guys like LT and Portis. Top rookies turn into guys like W. McGahee or Jamal Lewis in a short amount of time. Unless you can get the next LT, which at this point still looks like AP, then the chances of your RB having staying power at the top is not as good, IMO, as WR's.

I was admitedly doing some stream of consciousness writing there as I was heading out the door from work.But let's look at those guys you mentioned. 3 years ago AJ was not a top WR, neither was Moss anymore. TO was a headcase and an injury waiting to happen. Fitz & Boldin were the only guys who were top WR's in scoring consistently.I think you are discounting the RB's too. SA had a long career for a RB (5 years of top 6 finishes.) So did Marshall Faulk.It's become sort of accepted that the top 10 RB's churn over every year, but doesn't that happen for WR's also? How many WR's have looked like the next long term stud like Holt or Harrison only to fade away? Lots of people spent early picks on Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, Roy Williams, Chris Chambers or Braylon Edwards for a most recent example. All had a top 10 performance and either disappeared or never came close again (Braylon still has lots of time.)I think maybe what I am getting towards is that the middle tier WR's are getting overvalued (not the top guys), just like the middle tier of RB's used to be overrated. Or maybe I'm just rambling.

 

[gianmarco]

I buy the WR argument. Here are the top 15 WRs from 2005:RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD 1 Steve Smith CAR 26 5 4 25 1 103 1563 12 237 120 2 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 22 2 8 41 0 103 1409 10 205 88 3 Santana Moss WAS 26 5 3 -3 0 84 1483 9 202 85 4 Chad Johnson CIN 27 5 5 33 0 97 1432 9 201 84 5 Joey Galloway TB 34 11 2 4 0 83 1287 10 189 72 6 Torry Holt STL 29 7 1 2 0 102 1331 9 187 71 7 Chris Chambers MIA 27 5 12 92 0 82 1118 11 187 70 8 Anquan Boldin ARI 25 3 12 45 0 102 1402 7 187 70 9 Marvin Harrison IND 33 10 0 0 0 82 1146 12 187 70 10 Hines Ward PIT 29 8 3 10 0 69 975 11 165 48 11 Plaxico Burress NYG 28 6 0 0 0 76 1214 7 163 47 12 Terry Glenn DAL 31 10 2 -4 1 62 1136 7 161 44 13 Donald Driver GB 30 7 2 13 0 86 1221 5 153 37 14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN 28 5 8 62 1 78 956 7 150 33 15 Randy Moss OAK 28 8 0 0 0 60 1005 8 149 32 Most of these guys are still excelling, and the ones who aren't could for the most part be expected to decline because of age (Galloway, Holt, Harrison, Glenn).By contrast, the top 15 RBs in 2005 were:RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD 1 Shaun Alexander SEA 28 6 370 1880 27 15 78 1 364 221 2 Larry Johnson KC 26 3 336 1750 20 33 343 1 335 192 3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 26 5 339 1462 18 51 370 2 321 177 4 Tiki Barber NYG 30 9 357 1860 9 54 530 2 305 162 5 Edgerrin James IND 27 7 360 1506 13 44 337 1 268 125 6 Clinton Portis WAS 24 4 352 1516 11 30 216 0 245 102 7 Rudi Johnson CIN 26 4 337 1458 12 23 90 0 227 84 8 LaMont Jordan OAK 27 5 272 1025 9 70 563 2 225 82 9 Thomas Jones CHI 27 6 314 1335 9 26 143 0 202 59 10 Mike Anderson DEN 32 6 239 1014 12 18 212 1 201 58 11 Steven Jackson STL 22 2 254 1046 8 43 320 2 197 54 12 Warrick Dunn ATL 30 9 280 1416 3 29 220 1 188 45 13 Willis McGahee BUF 24 2 325 1247 5 28 178 0 173 29 14 Reuben Droughns CLE 27 5 309 1232 2 39 369 0 172 29 15 Willie Parker PIT 25 2 255 1202 4 18 218 1 172 29 The difference when I look at these two lists is not just the fact that many more of the '05 RBs are nobodys now, but that back in '05 few of us would've expected them to be nobodys now. I'd be willing to bet dynasty leagues that started up prior to the '06 season saw Alexander, LJ, LT, Tiki, Edge, Portis, Rudi, Jordan, TJ, SJax, McGahee, Droughns, and Parker all drafted in the first round or two. People had the expectation that they'd produce for a long time, and there are NONE on this list that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a dynasty league initial draft (except Jackson) this year, where there are still at least five of the top 15 WRs from '05 that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a draft today. Fantasy football involves a lot of luck, and often all you can do is try to tilt the odds in your favor as much as possible. I'm sure someone could (or has) done a study on this, and my sample size of '05 and '08 is small, but as many above have stated, I'd take the safe WR picks over the risky RB picks any day. Honestly, where do think a guy like Frank Gore will be in 3 years? Unless you're a Gore family member or a blind 49ers homer, I think if you answer this question honestly you think you'd be lucky to get two good, healthy years out of the coming three from him, and after the 3 year mark, he'll be untradeable. Where will Greg Jennings, Eddie Royal, Roddy White be in 3 years? Probably giving you consistent, top 15 production over each of those three years, with the prospect of consistent, top 15-20 production over the following 3-5 years. Erring on the side of WRs seems like a no brainer to me.

This is exactly what I was referring to. Looking back 1 year to see the staying power of WR's isn't enough.

 

[Buckna]

I buy the WR argument. Here are the top 15 WRs from 2005:

RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD

1 Steve Smith CAR 26 5 4 25 1 103 1563 12 237 120

2 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 22 2 8 41 0 103 1409 10 205 88

3 Santana Moss WAS 26 5 3 -3 0 84 1483 9 202 85

4 Chad Johnson CIN 27 5 5 33 0 97 1432 9 201 84

5 Joey Galloway TB 34 11 2 4 0 83 1287 10 189 72

6 Torry Holt STL 29 7 1 2 0 102 1331 9 187 71

7 Chris Chambers MIA 27 5 12 92 0 82 1118 11 187 70

8 Anquan Boldin ARI 25 3 12 45 0 102 1402 7 187 70

9 Marvin Harrison IND 33 10 0 0 0 82 1146 12 187 70

10 Hines Ward PIT 29 8 3 10 0 69 975 11 165 48

11 Plaxico Burress NYG 28 6 0 0 0 76 1214 7 163 47

12 Terry Glenn DAL 31 10 2 -4 1 62 1136 7 161 44

13 Donald Driver GB 30 7 2 13 0 86 1221 5 153 37

14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN 28 5 8 62 1 78 956 7 150 33

15 Randy Moss OAK 28 8 0 0 0 60 1005 8 149 32

Most of these guys are still excelling, and the ones who aren't could for the most part be expected to decline because of age (Galloway, Holt, Harrison, Glenn).

By contrast, the top 15 RBs in 2005 were:

RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD

1 Shaun Alexander SEA 28 6 370 1880 27 15 78 1 364 221

2 Larry Johnson KC 26 3 336 1750 20 33 343 1 335 192

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 26 5 339 1462 18 51 370 2 321 177

4 Tiki Barber NYG 30 9 357 1860 9 54 530 2 305 162

5 Edgerrin James IND 27 7 360 1506 13 44 337 1 268 125

6 Clinton Portis WAS 24 4 352 1516 11 30 216 0 245 102

7 Rudi Johnson CIN 26 4 337 1458 12 23 90 0 227 84

8 LaMont Jordan OAK 27 5 272 1025 9 70 563 2 225 82

9 Thomas Jones CHI 27 6 314 1335 9 26 143 0 202 59

10 Mike Anderson DEN 32 6 239 1014 12 18 212 1 201 58

11 Steven Jackson STL 22 2 254 1046 8 43 320 2 197 54

12 Warrick Dunn ATL 30 9 280 1416 3 29 220 1 188 45

13 Willis McGahee BUF 24 2 325 1247 5 28 178 0 173 29

14 Reuben Droughns CLE 27 5 309 1232 2 39 369 0 172 29

15 Willie Parker PIT 25 2 255 1202 4 18 218 1 172 29

People had the expectation that they'd produce for a long time, and there are NONE on this list that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a dynasty league initial draft (except Jackson) this year, where there are still at least five of the top 15 WRs from '05 that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a draft today.

I disagree with some of your conclusions. I see 3 RB's and 3 WR's that would likely go in the top 3 rounds of an initial draft (although I assume that many would argue against LT or Portis.) However, probably a few more of the WR's would go in the mid-rounds than the RB's, but I doubt it would be large difference.

 

[Buckna]

I think ultimately my position is that there are only a handful of top players at each position that have long-lasting staying power (think Peterson, LT, Fitz, Harrison, as examples.)

The mid-tier RB's burn bright but only for a short time (say Rudi Johnson as an example.) The mid-tier WR's last longer but give inconsistent "value" from year to year (Donald Driver is a good example, only 1 studly year at #5, 2 good years at #10, and quite a few ho-hum years where he wasn't any better than an average WR2 or 3.)

It comes down to how you want to build your team. Some will argue you need the RB's because their shelf life is shorter and they are harder to replace because you often need a top rookie pick. (There are the come from nowhere guys, but it's generally impossible to predict them and once they arrive ont he scene they are expensive.) Others will argue that a WR that lasts for 8 seasons gives you piece of mind and production, letting you focus on other areas.

 

[EBF]

I buy the WR argument. Here are the top 15 WRs from 2005:

RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD

1 Steve Smith CAR 26 5 4 25 1 103 1563 12 237 120

2 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 22 2 8 41 0 103 1409 10 205 88

3 Santana Moss WAS 26 5 3 -3 0 84 1483 9 202 85

4 Chad Johnson CIN 27 5 5 33 0 97 1432 9 201 84

5 Joey Galloway TB 34 11 2 4 0 83 1287 10 189 72

6 Torry Holt STL 29 7 1 2 0 102 1331 9 187 71

7 Chris Chambers MIA 27 5 12 92 0 82 1118 11 187 70

8 Anquan Boldin ARI 25 3 12 45 0 102 1402 7 187 70

9 Marvin Harrison IND 33 10 0 0 0 82 1146 12 187 70

10 Hines Ward PIT 29 8 3 10 0 69 975 11 165 48

11 Plaxico Burress NYG 28 6 0 0 0 76 1214 7 163 47

12 Terry Glenn DAL 31 10 2 -4 1 62 1136 7 161 44

13 Donald Driver GB 30 7 2 13 0 86 1221 5 153 37

14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN 28 5 8 62 1 78 956 7 150 33

15 Randy Moss OAK 28 8 0 0 0 60 1005 8 149 32

Most of these guys are still excelling, and the ones who aren't could for the most part be expected to decline because of age (Galloway, Holt, Harrison, Glenn).

By contrast, the top 15 RBs in 2005 were:

RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD

1 Shaun Alexander SEA 28 6 370 1880 27 15 78 1 364 221

2 Larry Johnson KC 26 3 336 1750 20 33 343 1 335 192

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 26 5 339 1462 18 51 370 2 321 177

4 Tiki Barber NYG 30 9 357 1860 9 54 530 2 305 162

5 Edgerrin James IND 27 7 360 1506 13 44 337 1 268 125

6 Clinton Portis WAS 24 4 352 1516 11 30 216 0 245 102

7 Rudi Johnson CIN 26 4 337 1458 12 23 90 0 227 84

8 LaMont Jordan OAK 27 5 272 1025 9 70 563 2 225 82

9 Thomas Jones CHI 27 6 314 1335 9 26 143 0 202 59

10 Mike Anderson DEN 32 6 239 1014 12 18 212 1 201 58

11 Steven Jackson STL 22 2 254 1046 8 43 320 2 197 54

12 Warrick Dunn ATL 30 9 280 1416 3 29 220 1 188 45

13 Willis McGahee BUF 24 2 325 1247 5 28 178 0 173 29

14 Reuben Droughns CLE 27 5 309 1232 2 39 369 0 172 29

15 Willie Parker PIT 25 2 255 1202 4 18 218 1 172 29

People had the expectation that they'd produce for a long time, and there are NONE on this list that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a dynasty league initial draft (except Jackson) this year, where there are still at least five of the top 15 WRs from '05 that I'd take in the top two/three rounds of a draft today.

I disagree with some of your conclusions. I see 3 RB's and 3 WR's that would likely go in the top 3 rounds of an initial draft (although I assume that many would argue against LT or Portis.) However, probably a few more of the WR's would go in the mid-rounds than the RB's, but I doubt it would be large difference.

I count 7 RBs on that list who are total junk (Alexander, Barber, Rudi, Jordan, Anderson, Dunn, and Droughns). Several of the other guys are significantly less valuable than they were during their prime (LJ, LT, James, McGahee, and maybe Parker). On the flipside, all of those WRs might be startable next season with the exception of Galloway and Glenn. Holt, Harrison, and Driver are probably on their last legs, but they still helped some teams last season.

On the surface, it looks like the failure rate for RBs is about twice what it is for WRs. Add in the fact that RBs get hurt more often than WRs, and there's really no argument for taking an elite RB over an elite WR.

Even a middling WR like Santana Moss is worth more than Shaun Alexander now, which is part of the reason why I rank someone like Eddie Royal so high. His PPG ceiling might be lower than Steven Jackson's, but I bet he'll be a useful FF player for a lot longer.

 

[Crippler]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

Thomas Jones had a pretty good year.

And he wasn't dirt cheap. In addition, it's very easy with hindsight. I imagine very few saw that at the beginning of the year and even fewer went into the year comfortable with him being their #1.

Jones was dirt cheap before this year. One guy in my home league tried to trade him away and could not get a 2nd rounder for him. He is glad he did not in the end

Sure, there may have been a moment last year when he was cheap. But as you pointed out, that didn't occur at the same time that someone would have been comfortable calling him their starter. The "use the older vet" is great in theory, but only after you see which older vet surprises everyone. At that point, he is no longer cheap.

He is also no longer an easy trade. No one will give you what you expect to get for him because of age and one year blimp. Same goes with LT right now even though some are looking to buy low. Those that own Thomas are probably stuck with him until trade deadline and he must be having another good season or he will be traded for like a 4th round pick(What I saw Dunn traded for last year)