PPR Pick #7 Strategy Session (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

I only do one redraft league and drew pick 7 this year. Can't say I'm in love with the draft slot but it is what it is. LeVeon Bell's suspension cheapens the slot a bit as well imo.

I'm guessing ADP shows something like Brown, Beckham, Jones, D. Johnson, Gurley, Gronk, Hopkins... I don't really look at ADP since I only do one redraft and with it being a local league I know my league-mates. I don have a general sense of ADP from reading this board and doing a few mocks though.

So one of those last three/four could fall to pick 7 and we'd also be looking at perhaps AJ Green, Dez, or Elliot.

My personal dilemma (and I don't want to turn this into an Asst. Coach thread) is that the next guy up on my VBD rankings would be Lamar Miller (who I rank above Gurley and Elliot and fairly even with Johnson and Hopkins). That would likely be a "reach" accoding to ADP, but then again I just don't think he lasts until the 2.06. I'd love to trade drafts for a later pick but no one wants to.

Rounds 2-3 look pretty nice from this draft slot with plenty of nice RB or WR choices.

So let's discuss strategy from the middle draft slot - and also address the question (ignoring Miller specifically but in the more general sense) would you "reach" a few (maybe 5-6 slots in ADP) to get the guy you want or grab some one else and hope your guy falls (knowing he probably will not)?

 

[tone1oc]

I'd pair up AJG/Dez at 1.07 with KA/Jeffrey/Marshall/Evans at 2.06.  I just can't get on board with Lamar Miller (or any other 2nd rd RB) with so much great WRs in that area, but I am much lower on Lamar Miller than most.  I understand the love for Miller, but I just can't get over so many different coaching staffs not giving him a full workload and now in year 5 paying for all of his upside.   

With the 3.07 I'd scoop up my favorite WR in that early to mid 3rd round ADP grouping (Hilton/DThomas/Landry/Cobb/Edelman/Watkins) where I'd most likely end up with Sammy or Cobb.  At 4.06 I'd grab CJA (4.02) or Dion Lewis (4.05) if they fell or decide between Hyde (4.08) Maclin (4.06) and Baldwin (4.11) depending if on starting lineup requirements.

So WR-WR-WR-WR or WR-WR-WR-RB for me 

 

[tone1oc]

I'd pair up AJG/Dez at 1.07 with KA/Jeffrey/Marshall/Evans at 2.06.  I just can't get on board with Lamar Miller (or any other 2nd rd RB) with so much great WRs in that area, but I am much lower on Lamar Miller than most.  I understand the love for Miller, but I just can't get over so many different coaching staffs not giving him a full workload and now in year 5 paying for all of his upside.   

With the 3.07 I'd scoop up my favorite WR in that early to mid 3rd round ADP grouping (Hilton/DThomas/Landry/Cobb/Edelman/Watkins) where I'd most likely end up with Sammy or Cobb.  At 4.06 I'd grab CJA (4.02) or Dion Lewis (4.05) if they fell or decide between Hyde (4.08) Maclin (4.06) and Baldwin (4.11) depending if on starting lineup requirements.

So WR-WR-WR-WR or WR-WR-WR-RB for me 

I just entered a yahoo public league 12 team PPR and drew the #7 spot lol.  I'll report back with team.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

 and now in year 5 paying for all of his upside.   

This part is certainly valid - as to all the different coaching staffs that chose not to give him a heavy workload, it was basically only two coaches and one coach was a buffoon and the other a meathead that was on the staff of the buffoon. With the money they paid Miller in Houston, I don't think workload is an issue - but obviously since he hasn't done it before it's surely a concern.

 

[LBH]

I think AJ Green is in for a huge year. If I was at 7 and he was there that would be my pick

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So WR-WR-WR-WR or WR-WR-WR-RB for me 

I'm starting to think that with everyone thinking this way, going RB-RB and then filling in WR (which I think is deep) is the way to go now. Of course choosing the right RBs is the issue - but if you can land two stud RBs and then a pair of WRs that could conceivably stay close in scoring with most first/second round WRs (Watkins, DThomas, Cobb, Edelman are all going in round 3 and I think they all could potentially be top 10 ppr WRs) you could have a serious advantage over the rest of the league. Obviously your two "stud" RBs may indeed get inured or bust. 

 

[tone1oc]

This part is certainly valid - as to all the different coaching staffs that chose not to give him a heavy workload, it was basically only two coaches and one coach was a buffoon and the other a meathead that was on the staff of the buffoon. With the money they paid Miller in Houston, I don't think workload is an issue - but obviously since he hasn't done it before it's surely a concern.

For sure.. I could definitely see Lamar Miller being the guy this year that I have avoided that I missed on big time.   

 

[tone1oc]

I'm starting to think that with everyone thinking this way, going RB-RB and then filling in WR (which I think is deep) is the way to go now. Of course choosing the right RBs is the issue - but if you can land two stud RBs and then a pair of WRs that could conceivably stay close in scoring with most first/second round WRs (Watkins, DThomas, Cobb, Edelman are all going in round 3 and I think they all could potentially be top 10 ppr WRs) you could have a serious advantage over the rest of the league. Obviously your two "stud" RBs may indeed get inured or bust. 

I could see that working for you, I also don't think it's a stretch to say that CJA or Dion Lewis are top 10 RBs in PPR this year.   I'm more risk adverse in the early rounds and would rather rely on mid to late round drafting and waiver wire to fill out the RB2.

 

[tone1oc]

Keep in mind it's a yahoo public league, so grains of salt..

1.07 - Hopkins
2.06 - ARobinson
3.07 - Hilton
4.06 - Maclin
5.07 - Giovani Bernard
6.06 - Tyler Lockett
7.07 - Deangelo Williams
8.06 - Tom Brady
9.07 - Stefon Diggs
10.06 - Tony Romo
11.07 - Crowell
12.06 - Ebron
13.07 - DHenry
14.06 - Prosise
15.07 - Howard
16.06 - Ferguson

I think that DWill is a great target in 6th/7th if you do go zero RB as he buys you 4 weeks of RB1 production to work deals and the waiver wire. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

Did an ESPN league last weekend PPR from the 7th.

1.  L. Miller
2. M. Forte
3. K. Allen
4. J. Maclin
5. L. Fitzgerald
6. G. Bernard
7. M. Jones
8. A. Foster 
9. C. Sims
10. A. Gates
11. K. Aiken
12. J. Winston
13. M. Bennett
14. R. Fitzpatrick
15. S. Coates

I feel more comfortable going RB/RB in drafts, the teams just look better when done.  After the top 13 WR's there are like 20 that could be WR 2's any given week.  I'm happy to spend 4 picks from the 3rd-7th getting a bunch of them.  To me starting Foster in the flex while he is healthy is like cheating.
 

 

[tone1oc]

Did an ESPN league last weekend PPR from the 7th.

1.  L. Miller
2. M. Forte
3. K. Allen
4. J. Maclin
5. L. Fitzgerald
6. G. Bernard
7. M. Jones
8. A. Foster 
9. C. Sims
10. A. Gates
11. K. Aiken
12. J. Winston
13. M. Bennett
14. R. Fitzpatrick
15. S. Coates

I feel more comfortable going RB/RB in drafts, the teams just look better when done.  After the top 13 WR's there are like 20 that could be WR 2's any given week.  I'm happy to spend 4 picks from the 3rd-7th getting a bunch of them.  To me starting Foster in the flex while he is healthy is like cheating.
 

Keenan Allen going 3.07 is just crazy, I'll asume you mixed up Forte and Allen.. I'd much rather have my roster 

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I'm starting to think that with everyone thinking this way, going RB-RB and then filling in WR (which I think is deep) is the way to go now. Of course choosing the right RBs is the issue - but if you can land two stud RBs and then a pair of WRs that could conceivably stay close in scoring with most first/second round WRs (Watkins, DThomas, Cobb, Edelman are all going in round 3 and I think they all could potentially be top 10 ppr WRs) you could have a serious advantage over the rest of the league. Obviously your two "stud" RBs may indeed get inured or bust. 

.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Did an ESPN league last weekend PPR from the 7th.

1.  L. Miller
2. M. Forte
3. K. Allen
4. J. Maclin
5. L. Fitzgerald
6. G. Bernard
7. M. Jones
8. A. Foster 
9. C. Sims
10. A. Gates
11. K. Aiken
12. J. Winston
13. M. Bennett
14. R. Fitzpatrick
15. S. Coates

I feel more comfortable going RB/RB in drafts, the teams just look better when done.  After the top 13 WR's there are like 20 that could be WR 2's any given week.  I'm happy to spend 4 picks from the 3rd-7th getting a bunch of them.  To me starting Foster in the flex while he is healthy is like cheating.
 

It looks and feels great until they inevitably get hurt or one week they get 7 carries because their team is getting blown out and you wonder why you bothered. You can pick the right ones and have a great year but the RB's are such a minefield every year.

 

[abbottjamesr]

It looks and feels great until they inevitably get hurt or one week they get 7 carries because their team is getting blown out and you wonder why you bothered. You can pick the right ones and have a great year but the RB's are such a minefield every year.

Maybe I am looking at the wrong way, but if its so hard to have healthy RB's doesn't it make more sense to draft more of them?  To me WR2 is the easiest position to fill in during the season.  I would prefer to have 3 solid RB's and 1 solid WR to start the season, then 3 solid WR's and no running backs.

BTW I had Brown last year and didn't enjoy weeks 4,5 and 6 were he had 5/42, 3/45 and 3/45.  It happens to WR's too.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Maybe I am looking at the wrong way, but if its so hard to have healthy RB's doesn't it make more sense to draft more of them?  To me WR2 is the easiest position to fill in during the season.  I would prefer to have 3 solid RB's and 1 solid WR to start the season, then 3 solid WR's and no running backs.

BTW I had Brown last year and didn't enjoy weeks 4,5 and 6 were he had 5/42, 3/45 and 3/45.  It happens to WR's too.

Sure draft as many as you want but in the past few years, they're not safe picks generally and in the first couple of rounds, you want safe with high floor and high ceiling if you can get it. I won my league last year by grabbing Woodhead (owner cut too soon), Mcfadden and D.Johnson off of waivers, all my RB picks were dog crap or got hurt so the waiver wire saved me. I guess you could maybe make the same argument for WR's as Baldwin and ARob were generally waiver guys last year too. Brown last year, sure he had 3 bad weeks but that's because Ben got hurt and missed 4 games, hardly his "fault". He still had 1800 yards, so 2000 yards was basically a virtual certainty had Ben stayed healthy. There's not many RB's you can say were certainties for 2000 yards last year.

3 solid RB's, I guess it's possible to attain, but it's not 2003 anymore and grabbing guys like Rudi Johnson in late round 2 and getting 1400 yards and 12 td's doesn't happen much anymore. There's no "right" way, you draft the team you personally want at the end of the day, I just happen to think the top WR's are currently safer picks.

 

[abbottjamesr]

Sure draft as many as you want but in the past few years, they're not safe picks generally and in the first couple of rounds, you want safe with high floor and high ceiling if you can get it. I won my league last year by grabbing Woodhead (owner cut too soon), Mcfadden and D.Johnson off of waivers, all my RB picks were dog crap or got hurt so the waiver wire saved me. I guess you could maybe make the same argument for WR's as Baldwin and ARob were generally waiver guys last year too. Brown last year, sure he had 3 bad weeks but that's because Ben got hurt and missed 4 games, hardly his "fault". He still had 1800 yards, so 2000 yards was basically a virtual certainty had Ben stayed healthy. There's not many RB's you can say were certainties for 2000 yards last year.

3 solid RB's, I guess it's possible to attain, but it's not 2003 anymore and grabbing guys like Rudi Johnson in late round 2 and getting 1400 yards and 12 td's doesn't happen much anymore. There's no "right" way, you draft the team you personally want at the end of the day, I just happen to think the top WR's are currently safer picks.

I agree there are many ways to win in Fantasy Football and the draft is just a piece of whats needed to have a winning team.  I agree with @Dr. Octopus though that maybe the pendulum has swung to far to the WR heavy side though.  One of the keys to a successful draft is getting production that exceeds adp, like Woodhead last year.  

Looking at the current ADP rankings I think people are massively overvaluing the non-elite WR's at the expense of all RB's.  This I assume is due to the higher than typical number of injuries and busts at RB last year.  This is probably less detrimental in PPR than in Non, but the RB's that are part of the passing game are still way undervalued in my opinion.

In regards to Brown and it not being his "fault", it doesn't change the score and actually shows that WR's value are  contingent on injury to them selves or their QB's.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I agree there are many ways to win in Fantasy Football and the draft is just a piece of whats needed to have a winning team.  I agree with @Dr. Octopus though that maybe the pendulum has swung to far to the WR heavy side though.  One of the keys to a successful draft is getting production that exceeds adp, like Woodhead last year.  

Looking at the current ADP rankings I think people are massively overvaluing the non-elite WR's at the expense of all RB's.  This I assume is due to the higher than typical number of injuries and busts at RB last year.  This is probably less detrimental in PPR than in Non, but the RB's that are part of the passing game are still way undervalued in my opinion.

In regards to Brown and it not being his "fault", it doesn't change the score and actually shows that WR's value are  contingent on injury to them selves or their QB's.

You may be right there and it's a good discussion point. WR's are definitely not infallible or immune to injury or poor performance. In any given year and in any given draft, you go where the value is, regardless of position and tiering helps a lot there. The past few years, the "elite" WR's have generally paid off versus the "elite" RB's. I drafted 12 in the league I mentioned and while others were falling over themselves to draft guys like Eddie Lacy and CJ Anderson, I took Julio and OBJ and that was all I needed along with some good/lucky waiver work.

I'd never advocate taking a position over value and that's probably where the disconnect is between someone maybe taking a less then elite WR over a better RB, just to take a WR.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Keep in mind it's a yahoo public league, so grains of salt..

1.07 - Hopkins
2.06 - ARobinson
3.07 - Hilton
4.06 - Maclin
5.07 - Giovani Bernard
6.06 - Tyler Lockett
7.07 - Deangelo Williams
8.06 - Tom Brady
9.07 - Stefon Diggs
10.06 - Tony Romo
11.07 - Crowell
12.06 - Ebron
13.07 - DHenry
14.06 - Prosise
15.07 - Howard
16.06 - Ferguson

I think that DWill is a great target in 6th/7th if you do go zero RB as he buys you 4 weeks of RB1 production to work deals and the waiver wire. 

I like it but RB could be a serious issue after Week 4. 

 

[tone1oc]

I like it but RB could be a serious issue after Week 4. 

Yes, I'd need one of Henry/Prosise/Howard/Ferguson to breakout.  Or trade one of my WRs.  I like casting a wide net with rookie RBs late.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think AJ Green is in for a huge year. If I was at 7 and he was there that would be my pick

I fully agree with this. I take Miller on the way back if he is there .

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm now leaning towards going with AJ Green or Dez Bryant - as I like the way my teams look when I mock a WR in the first and second (and even third) round.

 

[NeverEnough]

I normally go RB-RB. but this year I am not sure. I have the #3 pick in redraft PPR and can't decide if I want to go OBJ, David Johnson or Hopkins with that pick. I am expecting all top tier talent to be gone when my next pick comes around (Snake draft)

 

[bagger]

I only do one redraft league and drew pick 7 this year. Can't say I'm in love with the draft slot but it is what it is. LeVeon Bell's suspension cheapens the slot a bit as well imo.

I'm guessing ADP shows something like Brown, Beckham, Jones, D. Johnson, Gurley, Gronk, Hopkins... I don't really look at ADP since I only do one redraft and with it being a local league I know my league-mates. I don have a general sense of ADP from reading this board and doing a few mocks though.

So one of those last three/four could fall to pick 7 and we'd also be looking at perhaps AJ Green, Dez, or Elliot.

My personal dilemma (and I don't want to turn this into an Asst. Coach thread) is that the next guy up on my VBD rankings would be Lamar Miller (who I rank above Gurley and Elliot and fairly even with Johnson and Hopkins). That would likely be a "reach" accoding to ADP, but then again I just don't think he lasts until the 2.06. I'd love to trade drafts for a later pick but no one wants to.

Rounds 2-3 look pretty nice from this draft slot with plenty of nice RB or WR choices.

So let's discuss strategy from the middle draft slot - and also address the question (ignoring Miller specifically but in the more general sense) would you "reach" a few (maybe 5-6 slots in ADP) to get the guy you want or grab some one else and hope your guy falls (knowing he probably will not)?

If you can draft AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Demerious Thomas, and Latavius Murray with your first four picks you will be on your way to a really nice season. All four have ADPs that make that viable.

I have pick 6 and am targeting that. I normally love being near turns but I really like the middle of the draft this year.

 

[JamieMurphy]

Keenan Allen going 3.07 is just crazy, I'll asume you mixed up Forte and Allen.. I'd much rather have my roster 

Thinking the same thing. Maybe it was a six team league