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Pre-Draft Bloom 100: 1-25 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
whoops, changed the link. sorry bout that
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I couldn't read your list so here is mine-
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Johnny Manziel
WR Jordan Matthews
RB Charles Sims
QB Teddy Bridgewater
QB Blake Bortles
WR Davonte Adams
RB Tre Mason
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Allen Robinson
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Derek Carr
TE Jace Amaro
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
RB Isaiah Crowell
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Devonta Freeman
RB Terrance West
WR Cody Latimer
WR Martavis Bryant
QB Brett Smith
WR Josh Huff
QB Garrett Gilbert
RB Andre Williams
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
QB Zach Metternberger
WR Jeff Janis
RB KaDeem Carey
WR Bruce Ellington
WR Robert Herron
WR Kevin Norwood
RB Stephen Houston
RB Antonio Andrews
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Damien Williams
WR Mike Davis
RB Jerick McKinnon
RB DeAnthony Thomas
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
WR Dri Archer
QB Aaron Murray
TE Colt Lyerla
TE A.C Leonard
WR Chandler Jones
QB David Fales
WR Paul Richardson
QB Tajh Boyd
QB Logan Thomas
RB Storm Johnson
QB AJ McCarron
WR Shaquelle Evans
Qb Tom Savage
WR/TE Brandon Coleman
RB Marion Grice
WR Cody Hoffman
WR L'Damian Washington
RB James White
WR Devin Street
RB Rajion Neal
RB Tim Flanders
RB James Wilder
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Johnny Manziel
WR Jordan Matthews
RB Charles Sims
QB Teddy Bridgewater
QB Blake Bortles
WR Davonte Adams
RB Tre Mason
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Allen Robinson
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Derek Carr
TE Jace Amaro
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
RB Isaiah Crowell
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Devonta Freeman
RB Terrance West
WR Cody Latimer
WR Martavis Bryant
QB Brett Smith
WR Josh Huff
QB Garrett Gilbert
RB Andre Williams
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
QB Zach Metternberger
WR Jeff Janis
RB KaDeem Carey
WR Bruce Ellington
WR Robert Herron
WR Kevin Norwood
RB Stephen Houston
RB Antonio Andrews
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Damien Williams
WR Mike Davis
RB Jerick McKinnon
RB DeAnthony Thomas
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
WR Dri Archer
QB Aaron Murray
TE Colt Lyerla
TE A.C Leonard
WR Chandler Jones
QB David Fales
WR Paul Richardson
QB Tajh Boyd
QB Logan Thomas
RB Storm Johnson
QB AJ McCarron
WR Shaquelle Evans
Qb Tom Savage
WR/TE Brandon Coleman
RB Marion Grice
WR Cody Hoffman
WR L'Damian Washington
RB James White
WR Devin Street
RB Rajion Neal
RB Tim Flanders
RB James Wilder
overall not a ton of major differences, but i dont have sankey in my top 25. only 3 RBs actually
bonesman
Footballguy
nope. Amaro's skillset is more fantasy friendly. destination could easily swap them back. amaro is going to be drafted to catch a ton of short passes and move the chains. ebron is going to be drafted to put defenses in binds and create some bigger downfield plays. they would be closer to even in nonppr
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Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
I hear what you're saying, I just haven't seen anyone put Amaro as the top rookie TE. Mad props to you for putting this together.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some of your player comparisons are pretty funny Sigmund. Thanks for that. 
I was mainly curious where you might slot Clowney on this list. I haven't done a combined offense/IDP ranking.
24th overall is still pretty high but not as high as I think he could be. But you are projecting him to OLB not DE which would make a significant difference.
I like that you stuck your neck out for Martavis Bryant at pick 22.
I was mainly curious where you might slot Clowney on this list. I haven't done a combined offense/IDP ranking.
24th overall is still pretty high but not as high as I think he could be. But you are projecting him to OLB not DE which would make a significant difference.
I like that you stuck your neck out for Martavis Bryant at pick 22.
someone in the NFL will stick their neck out for him on day 2. all the physical qualities are there and he just started getting it together last year. if he really turned the corner, could be very good. i dont mind risk/reward picks in late 2nd of rook draftsSome of your player comparisons are pretty funny Sigmund. Thanks for that.
I was mainly curious where you might slot Clowney on this list. I haven't done a combined offense/IDP ranking.
24th overall is still pretty high but not as high as I think he could be. But you are projecting him to OLB not DE which would make a significant difference.
I like that you stuck your neck out for Martavis Bryant at pick 22.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Nice list. I do think you are too far down on guys like Tre Mason, Bishop Sankey, Charles Sims, etc.
There's such a dearth of quality young RBs in fantasy that I think if any of these guys hit, their value will shoot through the roof compared to the WRs. The risk/reward is just so much higher than it is with these guys than with the 10th or 12th best WR. I'll take the chance that one of these guys hits over Moncrief, Bryant, Richardson and others. If Richardson hits, he's a poor man's DJax (imo). The other 2 maybe poor man's Mike Wallace. I can get the actual, mid 20 year old, rich man's version of these guys on the trade market and it doesn't cost me much. If Sankey, Mason or Sims hit they could easily be top 10 PPR RBs. You couldn't get Gio Bernard for Mike Wallace and DJax combined.
I just think that dynasty owners are all getting enraptured with the idea of building with WRs and I do get it. Everyone wants to have a stable of AJ, Julio and Dez. But in most of my leagues, it was the owners of Jamaal Charles, Shady McCoy, Forte, etc. who were winning it all while the guys with pretty WR rosters (and the guys who attempted to assemble pretty WR rosters with Hakeem Nicks, Greg Little, Justin Blackmon, etc.) who were done after 13 or 14 weeks.
There's such a dearth of quality young RBs in fantasy that I think if any of these guys hit, their value will shoot through the roof compared to the WRs. The risk/reward is just so much higher than it is with these guys than with the 10th or 12th best WR. I'll take the chance that one of these guys hits over Moncrief, Bryant, Richardson and others. If Richardson hits, he's a poor man's DJax (imo). The other 2 maybe poor man's Mike Wallace. I can get the actual, mid 20 year old, rich man's version of these guys on the trade market and it doesn't cost me much. If Sankey, Mason or Sims hit they could easily be top 10 PPR RBs. You couldn't get Gio Bernard for Mike Wallace and DJax combined.
I just think that dynasty owners are all getting enraptured with the idea of building with WRs and I do get it. Everyone wants to have a stable of AJ, Julio and Dez. But in most of my leagues, it was the owners of Jamaal Charles, Shady McCoy, Forte, etc. who were winning it all while the guys with pretty WR rosters (and the guys who attempted to assemble pretty WR rosters with Hakeem Nicks, Greg Little, Justin Blackmon, etc.) who were done after 13 or 14 weeks.
whichever RBs land in good spots (there aren't many - ATL, TEN - NE, MIA, BUF to a lesser extent) will move up considerably on the post draft list. But most of those backs will end up spots where they are slated to be backups for at least the first 2-3 years of their career, and by then, teams could draft someone even better, or they could flame out. I'm not going to spend a pick in the first two rounds of rookie drafts on an RB who is unlikely to see much action without an injury to the starter unless I am a big believer in their talent, and those 3 backs are represented on the list.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
i would bet my life at least 3 RB's go in the top 12 of rookie drafts.
deadlyrange0321
Footballguy
Good list. Your write-up on Manziel made me feel like he probably should have been a few slots higher on your list. Totally agree there, regardless of wins/losses, I think he will be a fantasy star.
i struggled with that because i think in an absolute way he is worth a pick around 6-7, but there is just no need to take him that high, but of course i said the same thing at 11, so good point. we'll see where he lands. dallas for instance would hurt, but cleveland or minnesota, jackpot
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Fair enough I guess. However, I would ask you one question to maybe test your assertion:
If someone offered you a $1,000 bet that Sankey, Sims and Mason would combine for a higher career VBD than Moncrief, Bryant and Richardson, would you take that bet and feel pretty good that your WRs would come out ahead?
If you would, great, your rankings make big picture sense and you are willing to really stand behind them...
If you would not take that bet, perhaps your methodology is faulty and it is worth looking for a 4th RB ahead of your 13th WR and challenging your value assumptions a little bit...
I'd personally argue that even if a rookie draft was today and I didn't know the landing spot of anyone, the #4 RB (on anyone's board) is worth more than the #13 WR (on anyone's board). I would personally love to grab three of the top 6 RBs (pre-draft consensus) with a trio of late 2nd rounders and like my odds of coming out ahead of the guy who took 3 WRs that weren't in the consensus top 10 right ahead of me.
cstu
Footballguy
The problem in doing rankings pre-draft is that RB's are far more situation dependent than WR's. I have not gone back to look at old Bloom 100's but I'd venture to guess that the pre-draft rankings favored WR's moreso than RB's compared to the post-draft.
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EBF
Footballguy
Ebron is a better athlete than Amaro. Cleaner movement. Amaro gets sloppy at the top of his routes. He reminds me a bit of Travis Kelce from the 2013 class. His stats were inflated because Tech threw the ball a billion times last season. I don't think he's a situation-independent star in the NFL, but if they use him as a de facto slot WR then he may put up nice FF numbers regardless due to him being a WR with TE eligibility. Not unlike Jordan Reed in that regard, although their physical tools/playing style are worlds apart.
One of the tricky dilemmas owners in the 1.03-1.06 range might face this year is whether to take a high floor/low ceiling first round WR like Beckham/Lee/Cooks or dip into the 2nd round WRs who have more prototypical physiques to become elite FF WRs (i.e. Latimer, Moncrief, Robinson). Even though I think Beckham is a can't-miss NFL prospect, I'm not sold that he's going to be a slam dunk FF prospect. A quick look at the top WR scorers and the dynasty WR rankings reveals that size does indeed matter (i.e. Dez, Andre, Calvin, Demaryius, Green, Julio, Fitz, VJax, Marshall).
Best you can probably hope for with a Beckham/Lee is a Cobb/Cruz/Wright kind of guy. Not difference-makers in FF without a favorable situation.
Isaiah Crowell has lots of fans on the internet. Most of the mainstream sources I look at have him pegged as a day 3 pick. I'm intrigued by his talent, but I don't think he's the slam-dunk lock talent that someone like Michael Dyer looks to be. Good frame and power. Good inside runner. Pedestrian explosiveness. Always said he's closer to Bryce Brown than Christine Michael in terms of background/draft stock. Gonna take a lot of courage to use a top 15-20 rookie pick on him if he goes in the 5th-7th round of the NFL draft, though it could be a shrewd move ultimately.
One of the tricky dilemmas owners in the 1.03-1.06 range might face this year is whether to take a high floor/low ceiling first round WR like Beckham/Lee/Cooks or dip into the 2nd round WRs who have more prototypical physiques to become elite FF WRs (i.e. Latimer, Moncrief, Robinson). Even though I think Beckham is a can't-miss NFL prospect, I'm not sold that he's going to be a slam dunk FF prospect. A quick look at the top WR scorers and the dynasty WR rankings reveals that size does indeed matter (i.e. Dez, Andre, Calvin, Demaryius, Green, Julio, Fitz, VJax, Marshall).
Best you can probably hope for with a Beckham/Lee is a Cobb/Cruz/Wright kind of guy. Not difference-makers in FF without a favorable situation.
Isaiah Crowell has lots of fans on the internet. Most of the mainstream sources I look at have him pegged as a day 3 pick. I'm intrigued by his talent, but I don't think he's the slam-dunk lock talent that someone like Michael Dyer looks to be. Good frame and power. Good inside runner. Pedestrian explosiveness. Always said he's closer to Bryce Brown than Christine Michael in terms of background/draft stock. Gonna take a lot of courage to use a top 15-20 rookie pick on him if he goes in the 5th-7th round of the NFL draft, though it could be a shrewd move ultimately.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I understand that. Just for the sake of argument, let's say there are 2 shares of stock, A and B.
A. This stock, I currently value at $50 a share. But there's about a 35% chance that in 2 weeks, I will value it at $150 a share because it has the potential for a huge value jump and a 65% chance that it'll stay valued at $50.
B. here is a stock that I currently value at $55 a share. In 2 weeks, I will probably still value it between $50 and $60 a share.
You may technically think stock B is "worth" more now, but would a savvy investor pay more for Stock A or Stock B?
Maybe that's a little bit of a stretch, but that's basically how I view the RBs. Even if they are somewhat situation dependent, you have to play the odds if you are drafting right now. The 4th-6th rated RBs are stock A. The 11th-13th rated WRs are Stock B.
Assuming we're talking about a league where you start 2 RBs and 3 WRs, does it really make sense to have 3 RBs and 13 WRs in your top 25? Am I the only one who sees a flaw in that type of reasoning?
Anyway, I like Bloom and appreciate that he usually is self aware enough to try to figure out if his reasoning on certain things is potentially flawed. I think this is one of those situations.
Beefeaters
Footballguy
The Pre-draft 100 rankings are with a few exceptions based almost completely on an assessment of ceiling/floor and likelihood of where they'll end up on that spectrum with only players projected to go in the first 2 rounds given the benefit of the doubt about opportunity. This is a very poor class of RBs, and I only see three with any special qualities (it's also a WR class very deep with potential productive WR2s in their offense). Now, the threshold for a running back to be effective and productive in the NFL is pretty low, so I won't be one bit surprised if talents like Sims, Sankey, Carey, Freeman, Mason, Johnson, Grice, Williams and Hill are pretty productive backs if injury or other breaks ever get them into the lineup. I'll probably project them as at least flex/low RB2 plays if they ever get spot starts. They might even be impressive enough to be a starter/lead back coming into a season or two if they can land somewhere with an opening on the horizon and have some good luck. But it seems just as likely, if not more likely that these talents who are marginal starters at the very best thru an NFL lens will never amount to more than being a backup running back. So until I see where that opportunity lines up, I can't go against my evaluation and recommend a running back that looks like a backup NFL RB in the most likely scenario over a WR that I see with a most likely scenario of being a starter.
If you think Im off for having 3 RBs and 13 WRs in the top 25, is the NFL off if they only have 3 RBs but 13 WRs in the top 75 picks?
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FUBAR
Footballguy
but we all know RB value in FF is much higher than it is in the NFL.Most years you can see 3rd or 4th round RBs taken above WRs who were drafted in the 2nd, but is this year that bad for RB (or great for WR)?
Personally, I like Hyde and would be surprised to see him fall to #8 unless he's drafted into a bad situation. He's my #3 pick right now assuming a 1/2/3/1 lineup.
Love that you put both top TEs in the top 10, which most people are reluctant to do.
Bishop Sankey bested Giovanni Bernard in every combine measure, he displayed great production in a big-time conference, he seems to be a tougher runner than Gio, and is a great athlete. Last year you had Gio as your top RB and #3 on your list (I also had him as my #1 back last year). How is it that Sankey is not even in your top 25? What specifically do you not like about him?
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manziel and bridgewater in the 3-5 overall tier (with an argument for 1 or 2), bortles after that in 6-10 tier - other QBs in good situations maybe mid 2nd
the 3rd/4th rd RBs who land in good situations will be above some of the WRs who land in the 2nd, but im not going to guess which ones they will be.
Most years you can see 3rd or 4th round RBs taken above WRs who were drafted in the 2nd, but is this year that bad for RB (or great for WR)?
Personally, I like Hyde and would be surprised to see him fall to #8 unless he's drafted into a bad situation. He's my #3 pick right now assuming a 1/2/3/1 lineup.
Love that you put both top TEs in the top 10, which most people are reluctant to do.
just don't see him breaking tackles or being sudden enough to make guys miss in the NFL. he'll be a very good backup RB who could shine in a good offense if he gets a shot. think robert turbin
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
Surprised on the RB rankings, or lack thereof. Sankey and Mason not making the list strikes me as overly-dramatic, but I respect going out on a limb and making something other than cookie-cutter rankings.
I look forward to these rankings every year.
I look forward to these rankings every year.
not trying to be dramatic. just see them as lesser RBBC or backups in most likely scenario
jurb26
Footballguy
Seastrunk looks like the epitome of a COP RB yet he is ranked while others aren't. Love some unpacking of that one.
jurb26
Footballguy
I also don't particularly like the Crowell ranking. The reward just doesn't supersede the risk IMO. As you say in the article he isn't as physically gifted as a guy like Michael and has significantly more warts. Michael was drafted at the very end of round 2 in a much weaker class. Ranking him above guys like Sankey and Mason is crazy if you ask me. Those guys have nearly the same amount of ability with almost none of the character warts. I expect him to be taken in round 5 of the draft.
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krsone21
Footballguy
With this being a pre-draft list I would have ranked more WR's then RB's as well. The RB's are totally dependent on landing spot and until we know the landing spots the WR's are the way to go. Bloom isn't the only one ranking the WR's high and RB's low. If you look at the DLF's top 50 pre-draft rankings they also have WR's ranked at their first 7 and then finally 1 RB and not another RB ranked until #13 again.
he's a better running back on tape than sankey or mason. as long as he isn't in da'rick rogers territory, where his character makes him a UDFA, I think it'll play out that way on the field in the NFL toojurb26 said:
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
when it's all said and done 2-3 RB's will be going in the top 6 of rookie drafts.
Right now i can understand people being heavy WR's, but it's not realistic to think that will happen when real rookie drafts start.
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
Agreed. I think at least 4 RBs will go in the first round, and more likely 6 or 7 given the weakness of QBs in this draft. RBs are just too hard to come by, whereas it's not too difficult to find a WR fill-in for bye weeks and injuries. Also, the fact that WR is so deep this year, I believe owners will be wanting to snag a RB while they have the chance and taking a WR in the later rounds.
OrangeJulius
Footballguy
Why not try and predict who will be successful? This whole if this then that stuff is a kop out!
madmatg
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, that's kind of the point. Sankey and Mason could be every down backs and Seastrunk is the epitome of a 3rd down back yet he ranks 13 on the list? This class has way too much talent, in all positions, to rank a guy you think is a 3rd down back that high.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
. Big fan of comps.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Completely and totally irrelevant to a fantasy football ranking...
I could turn it around and ask you why you don't have 7 or 8 QBs in your fantasy top 25 since the NFL is going to draft 7 or 8 of them in the top 75 picks. But the answer is pretty obvious...fantasy football value is not the same as NFL value.
In today's day and age, for fantasy purposes, a RB in the 2nd round of the NFL draft simply has more value than a WR in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. Just look at the current dynasty ADP of the 5 RBs taken in last year's 2nd round vs. the ADP of the WRs taken in the 2nd round....
I see through your reasoning where (in my opinion) you are making your mistake and why your rankings from my perspective are pretty badly skewed.
We can just agree to disagree and move on.
