Mr. PadresLakers said:
What is it about a Steelers offense that the Chargers can't match up with compared to the Colts? Is it the weaker QB coming off a serious head injury? The swiss cheese offensive line? The perpetually injured star RB?
FWIW, I think the Colts are a better
offensive team than the Steelers. (Maybe I'm not going out on a limb there?) The Steelers scored 11 points against the Chargers in the first matchup, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chargers held the Steelers this week to fewer than the 17 points they gave up against the Colts last week.But overall, the Steelers are a much better team than the Colts. I thought the Chargers should have been slightly favored over the Colts on a neutral field, but I think the Steelers should be substantial favorites over either of those teams on a neutral field. And they're playing at home.
I think losing by the 23 points NBZ predicted above is extremely unlikely. Over the past five seasons, including playoffs, the Chargers have lost by 20 or more points precisely once -- to the Patriots in week two last year. That's once out of 86 games. (Conversely, they've won by 20 points or more 19 times over the same period.)
The worst thing the Steelers can hope for is any kind of blowout. The Chargers don't lose blowouts. They win blowouts and lose heartbreakers. (Over the last five years, they are 7-14 in games decided by three points or less.)
But the main point of this here post, which I'm finally getting to, is that while the Steelers aren't a better
offensive team than the Colts, they are a much better
overall team than the Colts. They are also a much better team than the Chargers have been this season. I thought the spread was off in the Chargers-Colts game (I thought the Chargers should have been very slight favorites on a neutral field, and at least 2.5-point favorites at home), but I think the 6-point spread in the PIT-SD game is about right -- and if I had to pick a side given that spread, I'd probably lean toward PIT.
(I also think the Ravens and Titans are both better than the Steelers. It's a
tough road to the Super Bowl in the AFC.)