Prediction: Wes Welker will lead Pat's in receptions (1 Viewer)

[Thumper]

When you consider that the Patriots gave up a #2 pick (the Pat's don't do things like this lightly) and that Welker has been just about the only Patriot wr that has been working with Tom Brady and getting into a grove all pre season. Along with the FACT that the Patriots (according to several local sources) gave serious thought to cutting Randy Moss before the season even started and have not been thrilled with some of the other wr's (Stallworth) you can see where a pattern is forming.

I look for Welker to lead the Patriots in receptions and in essence be Tom Brady's new go to man.

I think it is quite possible that Wes Welker becomes the Patriots newer younger Troy Brown. It is not inconceivable that Welker ends the season with 1,000 yards and 6 td's.

Welker is the quenessential Patriots/Belichick player and his numbers will prove this out.

 

[cobalt_27]

When you consider that the Patriots gave up a #2 pick (the Pat's don't do things like this lightly) and that Welker has been just about the only Patriot wr that has been working with Tom Brady and getting into a grove all pre season. Along with the FACT that the Patriots (according to several local sources) gave serious thought to cutting Randy Moss before the season even started and have not been thrilled with some of the other wr's (Stallworth) you can see where a pattern is forming.I look for Welker to lead the Patriots in receptions and in essence be Tom Brady's new go to man. I think it is quite possible that Wes Welker becomes the Patriots newer younger Troy Brown. It is not inconceivable that Welker ends the season with 1,000 yards and 6 td's.Welker is the quenessential Patriots/Belichick player and his numbers will prove this out.

Ok. Thanks.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

 

[Thumper]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

I disagree.Pioli and Belichick aren't stupid. They are good talent evaluators and gave up a lot to get this guy.He was easily the best wr in camp + Brady's favorite target.

 

[cobalt_27]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

I disagree.Pioli and Belichick aren't stupid. They are good talent evaluators and gave up a lot to get this guy.He was easily the best wr in camp + Brady's favorite target.

Problem is, as Chase said, he's not really all that good.

 

[Resident A]

I think you're right about the receptions, he should be good for close to 80. The problem is that Welker will only have 2-3 TDs, so Unless you're in a PPR, he's only borderline usable.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

I disagree.Pioli and Belichick aren't stupid. They are good talent evaluators and gave up a lot to get this guy.He was easily the best wr in camp + Brady's favorite target.

No, Belichick and Pioli aren't stupid, but they're not perfect, either. They've both made several mistakes over the past few years. Certainly more things than not have worked out for them, but Wes Welker isn't worth a 2nd round pick.If the Browns had traded for Welker, I doubt you'd be saying that Welker is a talented, good NFL WR.

 

[thecardiackid]

PPR = $$$ (for a WR3/4)

But (WR 2/3 - which is what you're selling here) yardage and esp. scores will be challenging to predict. Brady will continue to spread the ball around more than any other NFL QB.

I do agree that WW and Watson will both be near or @ the top in targets.

 

[Thumper]

PPR = $$$ (for a WR3/4)But (WR 2/3 - which is what you're selling here) yardage and esp. scores will be challenging to predict. Brady will continue to spread the ball around more than any other NFL QB.I do agree that WW and Watson will both be near or @ the top in targets.

I'm not saying that Welker is going to be Steve Smith or T.O.What I am saying is that the Patriots didn't give up a 2nd rnd pick to get this guy 30 catches. He is going to be used early and often.1,000 yds 6 td's makes him a very solid #3. Which is what I think he will end up being.

 

[LBH]

I wouldnt be shocked

 

[Fla\/\/ed]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

I disagree.Pioli and Belichick aren't stupid. They are good talent evaluators and gave up a lot to get this guy.He was easily the best wr in camp + Brady's favorite target.

No, Belichick and Pioli aren't stupid, but they're not perfect, either. They've both made several mistakes over the past few years.

And yet they have managed to win the Super Bowl 3 of the last 6 years.

 

[Kiddnets]

I think Welker has a great shot at those type of numbers - 1,000 yds 6 TDs...very nice #3 WR at #4WR draft price.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think Welker has a great shot at those type of numbers - 1,000 yds 6 TDs...very nice #3 WR at #4WR draft price.

1000/6 would have ranked as the 23rd best WR last year and the 21st best the year before. Anything's possible, of course, but I'd be very surprised if Welker ranked in the top 24. He's also more of an injury risk than most, I think, because of his size and the type of hits he takes. The WRs he's often compared to -- Wayne Chrebet, Troy Brown -- did not play 16 game seasons more often than not.

 

[mdog1967]

PPR = $$$ (for a WR3/4)But (WR 2/3 - which is what you're selling here) yardage and esp. scores will be challenging to predict. Brady will continue to spread the ball around more than any other NFL QB.I do agree that WW and Watson will both be near or @ the top in targets.

I'm not saying that Welker is going to be Steve Smith or T.O.What I am saying is that the Patriots didn't give up a 2nd rnd pick to get this guy 30 catches. He is going to be used early and often.1,000 yds 6 td's makes him a very solid #3. Which is what I think he will end up being.

Wow 1,000 yds and 6 TD's make a Bottom end 1 high 2. In my 16 team Re-Draft league Welker is a great bench guy. I think he has a lot of talent, but its the PATS where there are no stars but Brady. They spread the ball around a bit. I Peg Welker at 700yds and 6 TD"S. Good 2 numbers in a large league but in smaller leagues I think he could wind up sitting all year as a reserve. I drafted him by the way for depth.

 

[shadyridr]

I think he WILL lead the Pats in receptions but 6 TDs is too high IMO. Not with Stallworth, Moss, Maroney, and all the TEs they throw to.

 

[shadyridr]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Belichek himself said everytime they played vs Welker they couldnt cover the guy.

 

[Louisville Slugger]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Belichek himself said everytime they played vs Welker they couldnt cover the guy.

Moss has not been on the field in over a month and Stallworth got of to a bad start w/ the coaching staff. There was talk that Jabar Gaffney would start over Stallworth.I think Welker is the man in NE.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Belichek himself said everytime they played vs Welker they couldnt cover the guy.

That's great and all, but consider:Wes Welker had two or fewer catches in 3 of 4 career games against New EnglandNew England allowed Sammy Morris to total 162 yards in a game. That doesn't mean Sammy Morris is very good, either.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Belichek himself said everytime they played vs Welker they couldnt cover the guy.

In week 14 last year, Walker had 1 catch for -1 yard against the Patriots. Belichick is just trying to justify overpaying big time for a receiver who simply isn't that good. Yes, he is a great coach, but that doesn't mean that every decision or move he makes is the right one.

 

[Louisville Slugger]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Belichek himself said everytime they played vs Welker they couldnt cover the guy.

That's great and all, but consider:Wes Welker had two or fewer catches in 3 of 4 career games against New EnglandNew England allowed Sammy Morris to total 162 yards in a game. That doesn't mean Sammy Morris is very good, either.

Welker had nearly 70 catches for a weak team like Miami last year. Imagine what he could do with Tom Brady throwing to him.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Miami passed for 3,577 yards last year. Competing with Ronnie Brown, Sammy Morris, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, Derek Hagan and Randy McMichael, Wes Welker caught 19.2% of his team's yards.

Now, Welker will compete with Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Faulk is a better receiver than Brown, Maroney (or Maroney and Morris) is better than Morris, Moss is better than Chambers, Stallworth is better than Booker, Gaffney is better than Hagan, and Watson and McMichael are pretty even. In other words, Welker's competition for balls just got a lot tougher. I don't see how he tops 15% of the team's passing yards, and that might be pushing it. If New England passes for 4,000 yards this year -- which seems like a reasonable projection -- that means 600 yards, tops.

Now if Moss and Stallworth miss the entire season, that changes things. Because Gaffney, Caldwell and Chad Jackson are a downgrade from Chambers/Booker/Hagan. But as long as Moss and Stallworth equal the production from Chambers and Booker last year, Welker isn't going to be good enough to steal all the looks from Faulk, Maroney, Gaffney and Watson.

If you have Welker projected at 1,000 yards, you either have to think NE is passing for 5,000 yards, Wes Welker improved tremendously in the off-season, or Moss/Stallworth are worse than Chambers/Booker. None of those seem realistic to me.

 

[Louisville Slugger]

Miami passed for 3,577 yards last year. Competing with Ronnie Brown, Sammy Morris, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, Derek Hagan and Randy McMichael, Wes Welker caught 19.2% of his team's yards.Now, Welker will compete with Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Faulk is a better receiver than Brown, Maroney (or Maroney and Morris) is better than Morris, Moss is better than Chambers, Stallworth is better than Booker, Gaffney is better than Hagan, and Watson and McMichael are pretty even. In other words, Welker's competition for balls just got a lot tougher. I don't see how he tops 15% of the team's passing yards, and that might be pushing it. If New England passes for 4,000 yards this year -- which seems like a reasonable projection -- that means 600 yards, tops.Now if Moss and Stallworth miss the entire season, that changes things. Because Gaffney, Caldwell and Chad Jackson are a downgrade from Chambers/Booker/Hagan. But as long as Moss and Stallworth equal the production from Chambers and Booker last year, Welker isn't going to be good enough to steal all the looks from Faulk, Maroney, Gaffney and Watson.If you have Welker projected at 1,000 yards, you either have to think NE is passing for 5,000 yards, Wes Welker improved tremendously in the off-season, or Moss/Stallworth are worse than Chambers/Booker. None of those seem realistic to me.

Why would the Patriots give up a 2nd round pick for a guy who they would use as a 5th option?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Belichek himself said everytime they played vs Welker they couldnt cover the guy.

That's great and all, but consider:Wes Welker had two or fewer catches in 3 of 4 career games against New EnglandNew England allowed Sammy Morris to total 162 yards in a game. That doesn't mean Sammy Morris is very good, either.

Welker had nearly 70 catches for a weak team like Miami last year. Imagine what he could do with Tom Brady throwing to him.

Do you expect New England to throw 590 pass attempts this year? If not, it's not a relevant comparison.BTW, you might remember that Johnnie Morton caught 77 passes for 1154 yards in Detroit one year, with Ty Detmer, Mike McMahon and Charlie Batch throwing him the ball. He then went to Kansas City, where they had Trent Green in his prime. Did you imagine that he would catch 29 for 327 there? Probably not, but it's the same logic.The point? Being on a bad team that passes a lot will inflate your numbers, especially if the other targets aren't any good. Being on a team with a great QB doesn't matter much if there are other solid targets on the offense and they don't pass that often.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Miami passed for 3,577 yards last year. Competing with Ronnie Brown, Sammy Morris, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, Derek Hagan and Randy McMichael, Wes Welker caught 19.2% of his team's yards.Now, Welker will compete with Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Faulk is a better receiver than Brown, Maroney (or Maroney and Morris) is better than Morris, Moss is better than Chambers, Stallworth is better than Booker, Gaffney is better than Hagan, and Watson and McMichael are pretty even. In other words, Welker's competition for balls just got a lot tougher. I don't see how he tops 15% of the team's passing yards, and that might be pushing it. If New England passes for 4,000 yards this year -- which seems like a reasonable projection -- that means 600 yards, tops.Now if Moss and Stallworth miss the entire season, that changes things. Because Gaffney, Caldwell and Chad Jackson are a downgrade from Chambers/Booker/Hagan. But as long as Moss and Stallworth equal the production from Chambers and Booker last year, Welker isn't going to be good enough to steal all the looks from Faulk, Maroney, Gaffney and Watson.If you have Welker projected at 1,000 yards, you either have to think NE is passing for 5,000 yards, Wes Welker improved tremendously in the off-season, or Moss/Stallworth are worse than Chambers/Booker. None of those seem realistic to me.

Why would the Patriots give up a 2nd round pick for a guy who they would use as a 5th option?

When NE traded for Welker, they didn't have Stallworth or Randy Moss. You might want to ask why would they go after those two if they thought Welker was the answer.New England seriously overpaid for a jack-of-all trades player. He's a better football player than fantasy WR, and a 2nd round pick isn't that valuable for the Patriots since it was so late. Welker will likely contribute more in 2007 than a rookie 2nd rounder, so it makes sense from a win now point of view.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Bethel Johnson was drafted in the 2nd. Everyone makes mistakes sometimes, let us not act like Belichick is above that.

 

[nygiants56]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

I don't know about that..Bellichick said the main reason they acquired Welker this off-season,was because they simply could not cover the guy when the Pats played the Dolphins, and that they were enamored with his toughness and ability..Right now, Brown is banged up, Stallworth will be banged up shortly ( he's always hurt), and no one knows what Randy Moss will do, if anything. Enter Welker.Even if these other WR's play, Welker figures to see plenty of action , because the defenses will be focused on Moss/Stallworth, and trying to stop the run. They'll forget about the WR working the underneath routes when NE sends everyone else out deep down the field, including Watson..Brady loves guys running the tough crossing routes over the middle.Welker is as fearless as they get.He should grab upwards of 80 balls this season.

 

[Darth Cheney]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

I disagree.Pioli and Belichick aren't stupid. They are good talent evaluators and gave up a lot to get this guy.He was easily the best wr in camp + Brady's favorite target.

No, Belichick and Pioli aren't stupid, but they're not perfect, either. They've both made several mistakes over the past few years.

And yet they have managed to win the Super Bowl 3 of the last 6 years.

If he were perfect though it would be six out of six.

 

[Mr. Pink]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Hey Chase, what is it that you don't like about Welker that would cause you to suggest he's not very good. From what I've seen of him, he's fast, shifty and a tough receiver, especially catching passes in the middle of the field. His target to reception ratio was 67% (67/100), which was exceeded only by TJ House (67.7) and Mike Furrey (67.1) among WRs with 100 or more targets, which suggests to me he has a good pair of hands.I'm not willing to compare him to Troy Brown of a few years back. He may have been the single most reliable receiver the Pats have had in 10 years. But Welker is no slouch. I've predicted Welker would lead the team in receptions for weeks now. His numbers may not be spectacular, but they should fall around 70 catches, 750 yards and up to 4 TDs if he plays a full season. Not very good fantasy value, esp. in leagues that don't score ppr.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Mike Reiss of the Boston Globe said this was possible when we interviewed him back in June:

CL: Asante Samuel certainly a great playmaker, let's go back to the wide receiver corps. We talk about Randy Moss. Donte Stallworth, if healthy, that's the key with Stallworth, he's certainly a playmaker, but the guy I really like, and Bloom loves him too, is Wes Welker coming over from the Dolphins. This guy is basically a new Troy Brown, wouldn't you say?MR: I would. Very impressive - you look at the Patriots offense and what they want to do this year, I think you can make a case that Welker might lead the team in receptions. Coming off a career high 67 catch season last year in Miami, and with Tom Brady throwing the ball, that number could go even higher. He's going to play out of the slot, and the Patriots, in that position, look for a guy in the intermediate routes who can operate in tight spaces, get in and out of his cuts quickly, and Welker has looked terrific. I know that they haven't had pads on in these practices, but very impressive, you can already see the rapport developing with Tom Brady the quarterback. I'd say if you're looking for a guy to really emerge, if you're a fantasy football player out there, don't turn your back on Wes Welker, I think he's going to be a big time part of this offense this season.

 

[Darth Cheney]

If on week seventeen the stat flashed up on the telly that Wes Welker lead the Patriots in receptions.....I wouldn't be surprised. Of course I wouldn't be surprised if Moss went 100/1500/15 either. I agree with the poster who said Welker was a better football player than FF player, but I don't think Bellichek would give up a two for a player he wouldn't expect to contribute significant Offensive numbers.

 

[hotdogcollars]

Whoa, whoa, whoa....whoa. Stop. Just stop. The Pats haven't had a 1000 yd receiver since 2001. Since then, their leading receiver has averaged 69.8 catches and about 4 tds each year.

I'm as much a believer in Welker as the next guy, but to think he will outperform every receiver the Pats have had since 2001 is a stretching it a bit IMO. I would take him in a PPR in a late (stress late) round. But, if someone sees enough value to pick him in a single digit round...well, go right ahead.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

I don't know about that..Bellichick said the main reason they acquired Welker this off-season,was because they simply could not cover the guy when the Pats played the Dolphins, and that they were enamored with his toughness and ability..

This statement has already been proven to be false in this thread. Please re-read the thread again.

 

[HellToupee]

Love Welker this year,think he'll have very good year but I don't think he'll get 1,000yds. I've got him for 800-850 w/6tds.

 

[Bri]

Welker will be like Chrebet was for the Jets. Ds will know he's gonna go over the middle and get a first down catch but his hustle and determination will get it anyway. Rest of the time, he's not a gamebreaker like the "throughbreds" they have at the skill positions.

Curious if you disagree here Chase. Also what would you have given up(if he wasn't on the Jets) for Chrebet?

 

[Bri]

When you consider that the Patriots gave up a #2 pick (the Pat's don't do things like this lightly) and that Welker has been just about the only Patriot wr that has been working with Tom Brady and getting into a grove all pre season. Along with the FACT that the Patriots (according to several local sources) gave serious thought to cutting Randy Moss before the season even started and have not been thrilled with some of the other wr's (Stallworth) you can see where a pattern is forming.I look for Welker to lead the Patriots in receptions and in essence be Tom Brady's new go to man. I think it is quite possible that Wes Welker becomes the Patriots newer younger Troy Brown. It is not inconceivable that Welker ends the season with 1,000 yards and 6 td's.Welker is the quenessential Patriots/Belichick player and his numbers will prove this out.

The story about cutting Moss was an overreaction.Giving up a 2 is done, they did it already, but I'll play along- Miami's WRs aren't reliable outside of Booker and he looks old.(I don't know how old he is but he sure seems older) Did they weaken a division opponent? What's that worth? A good amount were not fans of the Ginn Jr pick, did losing Welker force their hand there?Only time will tell how it works out for Miami but he sure seemed like a stop gap last year. When they were struggling on O, the passes came his way and things settled down.Then there is his special teams value of which a huge percent of the top 24 WRs mentioned, don't contribute on.Hard worker and lockerroom presence for a team that boasts of taking alot of stock in those attributes.There's more than just stats that come into play here

 

[Chase Stuart]

He should grab upwards of 80 balls this season.

I've predicted Welker would lead the team in receptions for weeks now. His numbers may not be spectacular, but they should fall around 70 catches, 750 yards and up to 4 TDs if he plays a full season. Not very good fantasy value, esp. in leagues that don't score ppr.

Can you show me your full projections for the Patriots passing offense? 70-80 catches seems absurd based on my current thinking, so I wonder where else we must disagree. Perhaps you'll get me to change my mind.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Welker will be like Chrebet was for the Jets. Ds will know he's gonna go over the middle and get a first down catch but his hustle and determination will get it anyway. Rest of the time, he's not a gamebreaker like the "throughbreds" they have at the skill positions. Curious if you disagree here Chase. Also what would you have given up(if he wasn't on the Jets) for Chrebet?

Chrebet was a starter for the Jets most of his career, and he wasn't a bad one. He was terrific in 1998, and I think he played at a Pro Bowl level that year (was an excellent blocker in his prime for a player of his size). Like most players without great athleticism he deteriorated quickly and wasn't very valuable towards the end of his career. From 1999 to 2002 he was a dependable, reliable starter, though, and that was worth something.

 

[cstu]

Problem is, I don't think Welker is very good. Sure if Moss and Stallworth aren't on the field Welker will have to get a ton of balls, but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Troy Brown used to be.

Belichek himself said everytime they played vs Welker they couldnt cover the guy.

That's great and all, but consider:Wes Welker had two or fewer catches in 3 of 4 career games against New EnglandNew England allowed Sammy Morris to total 162 yards in a game. That doesn't mean Sammy Morris is very good, either.

Welker had nearly 70 catches for a weak team like Miami last year. Imagine what he could do with Tom Brady throwing to him.

Caldwell led the Pats last year with 61/760/4. It's going to be hard to any WR to put up good numbers for the Pats as long as Brady keeps throwing 81 passes to TE's like he did last year (and I don't expect less than 50 passes for Watson).

 

[Traders2001]

Possible but in a TD heavy league he does nt much value .

 

[zoonation]

Miami passed for 3,577 yards last year. Competing with Ronnie Brown, Sammy Morris, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, Derek Hagan and Randy McMichael, Wes Welker caught 19.2% of his team's yards.Now, Welker will compete with Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Faulk is a better receiver than Brown, Maroney (or Maroney and Morris) is better than Morris, Moss is better than Chambers, Stallworth is better than Booker, Gaffney is better than Hagan, and Watson and McMichael are pretty even. In other words, Welker's competition for balls just got a lot tougher. I don't see how he tops 15% of the team's passing yards, and that might be pushing it. If New England passes for 4,000 yards this year -- which seems like a reasonable projection -- that means 600 yards, tops.Now if Moss and Stallworth miss the entire season, that changes things. Because Gaffney, Caldwell and Chad Jackson are a downgrade from Chambers/Booker/Hagan. But as long as Moss and Stallworth equal the production from Chambers and Booker last year, Welker isn't going to be good enough to steal all the looks from Faulk, Maroney, Gaffney and Watson.If you have Welker projected at 1,000 yards, you either have to think NE is passing for 5,000 yards, Wes Welker improved tremendously in the off-season, or Moss/Stallworth are worse than Chambers/Booker. None of those seem realistic to me.

No you don't...this is terrible reasoning.Both Stallworth and Moss have an injury history and will likely not play all the games this year. Welker will never see double coverage. Look at Mike Furrey last year. Enough said.

 

[Lord Lucan]

Welker will be like Chrebet was for the Jets. Ds will know he's gonna go over the middle and get a first down catch but his hustle and determination will get it anyway. Rest of the time, he's not a gamebreaker like the "throughbreds" they have at the skill positions.

The difference between Chrebet's situation and that of Welker is that Chrebet didn't play alongside anyone (Keyshawn et al) who scared anyone with their potential to go deep. Both Moss and Stallworth's whole game has always been about being a deep threat.

 

[Skinsfansince72]

Welker will be like Chrebet was for the Jets. Ds will know he's gonna go over the middle and get a first down catch but his hustle and determination will get it anyway. Rest of the time, he's not a gamebreaker like the "throughbreds" they have at the skill positions.

The difference between Chrebet's situation and that of Welker is that Chrebet didn't play alongside anyone (Keyshawn et al) who scared anyone with their potential to go deep. Both Moss and Stallworth's whole game has always been about being a deep threat.

And Brady's whole game has always been about throwing underneath. Gottal like Welker this year. Should be worth close to as many td's as the other 2. Btw-when did Donte Stallworth become all world? And how many years has it been since Randy Moss has been worth a damn?The best WR here is the one you were able to land latest in your draft.

 

[Skinsfansince72]

Possible but in a TD heavy league he does nt much value .

In a td heavy league, Pats wr's are usually very mediocre. One being no better than the next.

 

[Borat]

Now, Welker will compete with Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Faulk is a better receiver than Brown, Maroney (or Maroney and Morris) is better than Morris, Moss is better than Chambers, Stallworth is better than Booker, Gaffney is better than Hagan, and Watson and McMichael are pretty even. In other words, Welker's competition for balls just got a lot tougher. I don't see how he tops 15% of the team's passing yards, and that might be pushing it. If New England passes for 4,000 yards this year -- which seems like a reasonable projection -- that means 600 yards, tops.

McMichael isn't even on the Dolphins anymore. I can see you follow Welker's former team closely. Welker is going to establish himself as one of the NFL's premier slot receivers this season, if he hasn't already; he caught 67 balls for 687 yards last season as the slot receiver in Miami. He enters his fourth season in the league, and has shown steady progression since entering the league. He goes from catching balls from Gus Frerotte in 2005 and Joey Harrington in 2006 to Tom Brady in 2007. And he's no lower on the depth chart in New England than he was in Miami.

 

[Sultans]

PPR = $$$ (for a WR3/4)But (WR 2/3 - which is what you're selling here) yardage and esp. scores will be challenging to predict. Brady will continue to spread the ball around more than any other NFL QB.I do agree that WW and Watson will both be near or @ the top in targets.

I'm not saying that Welker is going to be Steve Smith or T.O.What I am saying is that the Patriots didn't give up a 2nd rnd pick to get this guy 30 catches. He is going to be used early and often.1,000 yds 6 td's makes him a very solid #3. Which is what I think he will end up being.

I totally agree with Thumper. I would love to gets odds against Randy and Donte about who has the most catches on the Pats.Welker is going to grab 75. Put it in the books.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Now, Welker will compete with Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Faulk is a better receiver than Brown, Maroney (or Maroney and Morris) is better than Morris, Moss is better than Chambers, Stallworth is better than Booker, Gaffney is better than Hagan, and Watson and McMichael are pretty even. In other words, Welker's competition for balls just got a lot tougher. I don't see how he tops 15% of the team's passing yards, and that might be pushing it. If New England passes for 4,000 yards this year -- which seems like a reasonable projection -- that means 600 yards, tops.

McMichael isn't even on the Dolphins anymore. I can see you follow Welker's former team closely.

McMichael was on the Dolphins last year.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia2006.htm

 

[Chase Stuart]

Once again -- to anyone projecting 70+ catches or 800+ receiving yards for Wes Welker, please give your full projections for the Patriots passing offense. You've got Welker catching either 20% of the Patriots' passing yards or NE throwing for over 4,000 passing yards, and I'd be curious to see which one (if not both). They're two very different arguments.

Personally, I'd project Welker for about 15% of 4,000 passing yards, or 600 receiving yards. At 15%, you'd have to see NE throw for over 5,000 yards for Welker to reach 800 receiving yards. At greater than 15%, I would like to see who you think is going to lose out on that offense.

 

[Chase Stuart]

PPR = $$$ (for a WR3/4)But (WR 2/3 - which is what you're selling here) yardage and esp. scores will be challenging to predict. Brady will continue to spread the ball around more than any other NFL QB.I do agree that WW and Watson will both be near or @ the top in targets.

I'm not saying that Welker is going to be Steve Smith or T.O.What I am saying is that the Patriots didn't give up a 2nd rnd pick to get this guy 30 catches. He is going to be used early and often.1,000 yds 6 td's makes him a very solid #3. Which is what I think he will end up being.

I totally agree with Thumper. I would love to gets odds against Randy and Donte about who has the most catches on the Pats.Welker is going to grab 75. Put it in the books.

The NFL record for completions is 418 in a season. Do you see Brady smashing that this year? Or do you see Moss/Stallworth not getting many receptions this year? What's your passing breakdown to give Welker 75 receptions.

 

[switz]

Now, Welker will compete with Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Faulk is a better receiver than Brown, Maroney (or Maroney and Morris) is better than Morris, Moss is better than Chambers, Stallworth is better than Booker, Gaffney is better than Hagan, and Watson and McMichael are pretty even. In other words, Welker's competition for balls just got a lot tougher. I don't see how he tops 15% of the team's passing yards, and that might be pushing it. If New England passes for 4,000 yards this year -- which seems like a reasonable projection -- that means 600 yards, tops.

McMichael isn't even on the Dolphins anymore. I can see you follow Welker's former team closely. Welker is going to establish himself as one of the NFL's premier slot receivers this season, if he hasn't already; he caught 67 balls for 687 yards last season as the slot receiver in Miami. He enters his fourth season in the league, and has shown steady progression since entering the league. He goes from catching balls from Gus Frerotte in 2005 and Joey Harrington in 2006 to Tom Brady in 2007. And he's no lower on the depth chart in New England than he was in Miami.

Oh my goodness...Welker is Steve Tasker.

 

[Traders2001]

Possible but in a TD heavy league he does nt much value .

In a td heavy league, Pats wr's are usually very mediocre. One being no better than the next.

Because they never had decent WR's so it s obvious they never had a go to guy . It s the first year they have talent at WR i expect Moss to score 10 TD s.