Everyone assumes that Moreno is keeping the seat warm for someone else. Pretty sure that's not Hillman and there is no guarantee that it will be Ball. 2nd round picks were not locks for anything in the previous CBA. Now even less. Moreno could see a few year run here with Denver. Once Peyton hangs them up, anything goes, but Moreno may ride this thing until he does.
Denver can't really afford to lock Moreno up long term. Orlando Franklin, Wesley Woodyard, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Chris Harris, Robert Ayers, Von Miller, and several others all have contracts expiring within the next two seasons (although in Miller's case, there's a team option for 2015 that will certainly be exercised).
With that said, Denver has a club option on Moreno's 2014 season, and I wouldn't be shocked if they exercised it, particularly if Moreno maintains his current level of play. I own Moreno in a league where my team is playing for 2014 (I own Harvin, Crabtree, Gronk, etc), and I'm not giving up Moreno for anything less than a decent rookie first, just because best case scenario is he's starting for Denver again next year, and worst case scenario is he's a 27 year old UFA who'll draw serious interest on the market.
I think they very much might lock him up beyond next year if he gives them a very cap friendly deal. If he goes for the money, then he's gone after this one, but with so many guys that are up on the Denver roster, they might want to get him into a three year deal that pays him a prorated signing bonus less than the $5 mill he is owed in 2014. I can see it going either way...
Denver typically doesn't pro-rate signing bonuses. Denver's favorite contract structure uses guaranteed roster bonuses, which count in their entirety against the current year's cap and leaves little dead money on the deal going forward. That's how Peyton Manning's deal is structured- instead of a 5-year, $100 million dollar deal, it was essentially a 1-year, $20 million dollar deal, with a club option to add on another 2 years and $40 million afterwards, with two more club options to extend for another 1 year and $20 million after that. The upshot is that Peyton could then be cut at any point (except between seasons 2 and 3) with absolutely no dead money or other associated cap ramificiations.
As an example of Denver's typical business plan, Ryan Clady signed a 5-year, $52.5 million contract this offseason (with up to $5 million in additional escalators). That contract features $33 million in guaranteed money. Of that $33 million, only $3 million was actually in the form of signing bonus (and, therefore, pro-rated over the life of the deal). The remaining $30 million in guarantees comes in the form of roster bonuses and guaranteed base salaries, all of which count fully against the cap in the year they are paid. Also of note that these "guarantees" are only actually guaranteed for injury- if Denver parts ways with Clady for any reason other than because he's hurt, he won't see a dime of that money. If Chris Clark plays like the best tackle in the league and Denver decides to roll with him going forward, they could cut Ryan Clady next year (provided he was fully healed) with very minimal impact to the salary cap in the form of dead money. This is what happened to Elvis Dumervil, who only received about half of the "guaranteed" money in his contract because Denver decided he wasn't worth his salary any more.
I'm not saying that there's a 0% chance that Denver signs Moreno to a long-term deal with a large signing bonus that gets pro-rated over the life. Denver does have 2 or 3 contracts like that on the books. The Dominique Rogers-Cromartie deal is a 1-year deal that has a dummy second season that automatically voids after the superbowl and exists only for the purposes of pro-rating his signing bonus. Still, that's just not how Denver usually operates. John Elway and the front office prefer more of a "pay as you go" scheme, which maximizes their flexibility at any given point and pretty much eliminates any chances of ever having any significant amount of dead money on the cap.
Denver could still keep Moreno around, especially if he's willing to accept a below-market deal, but the franchise tends to be extremely frugal where possible. They asked Elvis Dumervil to take a pay cut this last offseason not because they needed the cap space, but because they thought his contributions were not worth the cost. They were a top-tier franchise in the middle of their superbowl window, and they believed Dumervil was a good player, but they still parted with him because the economics weren't quite right. There is a lot of speculation that Denver never trusted McGahee's health and they released him to avoid the possibility of being forced to pay an injury settlement later, but it's important to remember that Willis also looked really good for Denver last year, and the Broncos still parted ways with him over a couple million dollars this offseason. With Denver already having invested a significant amount of resources in terms of draft capital and roster spaces at the running back position, I think there's a good chance that they opt to forego signing Moreno for the long term and instead pursue some type of bargain-basement alternative. Again, unless Moreno gives them a pretty substantial hometown discount, in which case all bets are off.
Even in that worst-case scenario, though, Moreno will still be just 27 years old, and some team is going to come calling looking to make him their new featured back.