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Price check on isle of Moreno (1 Viewer)

Deep dynasty I traded locker and a (likely) late 2015 1st rd pick for hillman and Moreno

I also had Pryor Cam and Geno smith so locker didn't mean much to me

 
GoodLloydHaveMercy said:
Deep dynasty I traded locker and a (likely) late 2015 1st rd pick for hillman and Moreno

I also had Pryor Cam and Geno smith so locker didn't mean much to me
Very nice deal for you.

 
Adam Harstad said:
Everyone assumes that Moreno is keeping the seat warm for someone else. Pretty sure that's not Hillman and there is no guarantee that it will be Ball. 2nd round picks were not locks for anything in the previous CBA. Now even less. Moreno could see a few year run here with Denver. Once Peyton hangs them up, anything goes, but Moreno may ride this thing until he does.
Denver can't really afford to lock Moreno up long term. Orlando Franklin, Wesley Woodyard, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Chris Harris, Robert Ayers, Von Miller, and several others all have contracts expiring within the next two seasons (although in Miller's case, there's a team option for 2015 that will certainly be exercised).

With that said, Denver has a club option on Moreno's 2014 season, and I wouldn't be shocked if they exercised it, particularly if Moreno maintains his current level of play. I own Moreno in a league where my team is playing for 2014 (I own Harvin, Crabtree, Gronk, etc), and I'm not giving up Moreno for anything less than a decent rookie first, just because best case scenario is he's starting for Denver again next year, and worst case scenario is he's a 27 year old UFA who'll draw serious interest on the market.
I think they very much might lock him up beyond next year if he gives them a very cap friendly deal. If he goes for the money, then he's gone after this one, but with so many guys that are up on the Denver roster, they might want to get him into a three year deal that pays him a prorated signing bonus less than the $5 mill he is owed in 2014. I can see it going either way...

 
Everyone assumes that Moreno is keeping the seat warm for someone else. Pretty sure that's not Hillman and there is no guarantee that it will be Ball. 2nd round picks were not locks for anything in the previous CBA. Now even less. Moreno could see a few year run here with Denver. Once Peyton hangs them up, anything goes, but Moreno may ride this thing until he does.
Denver can't really afford to lock Moreno up long term. Orlando Franklin, Wesley Woodyard, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Chris Harris, Robert Ayers, Von Miller, and several others all have contracts expiring within the next two seasons (although in Miller's case, there's a team option for 2015 that will certainly be exercised).

With that said, Denver has a club option on Moreno's 2014 season, and I wouldn't be shocked if they exercised it, particularly if Moreno maintains his current level of play. I own Moreno in a league where my team is playing for 2014 (I own Harvin, Crabtree, Gronk, etc), and I'm not giving up Moreno for anything less than a decent rookie first, just because best case scenario is he's starting for Denver again next year, and worst case scenario is he's a 27 year old UFA who'll draw serious interest on the market.
I think they very much might lock him up beyond next year if he gives them a very cap friendly deal. If he goes for the money, then he's gone after this one, but with so many guys that are up on the Denver roster, they might want to get him into a three year deal that pays him a prorated signing bonus less than the $5 mill he is owed in 2014. I can see it going either way...
Denver typically doesn't pro-rate signing bonuses. Denver's favorite contract structure uses guaranteed roster bonuses, which count in their entirety against the current year's cap and leaves little dead money on the deal going forward. That's how Peyton Manning's deal is structured- instead of a 5-year, $100 million dollar deal, it was essentially a 1-year, $20 million dollar deal, with a club option to add on another 2 years and $40 million afterwards, with two more club options to extend for another 1 year and $20 million after that. The upshot is that Peyton could then be cut at any point (except between seasons 2 and 3) with absolutely no dead money or other associated cap ramificiations.

As an example of Denver's typical business plan, Ryan Clady signed a 5-year, $52.5 million contract this offseason (with up to $5 million in additional escalators). That contract features $33 million in guaranteed money. Of that $33 million, only $3 million was actually in the form of signing bonus (and, therefore, pro-rated over the life of the deal). The remaining $30 million in guarantees comes in the form of roster bonuses and guaranteed base salaries, all of which count fully against the cap in the year they are paid. Also of note that these "guarantees" are only actually guaranteed for injury- if Denver parts ways with Clady for any reason other than because he's hurt, he won't see a dime of that money. If Chris Clark plays like the best tackle in the league and Denver decides to roll with him going forward, they could cut Ryan Clady next year (provided he was fully healed) with very minimal impact to the salary cap in the form of dead money. This is what happened to Elvis Dumervil, who only received about half of the "guaranteed" money in his contract because Denver decided he wasn't worth his salary any more.

I'm not saying that there's a 0% chance that Denver signs Moreno to a long-term deal with a large signing bonus that gets pro-rated over the life. Denver does have 2 or 3 contracts like that on the books. The Dominique Rogers-Cromartie deal is a 1-year deal that has a dummy second season that automatically voids after the superbowl and exists only for the purposes of pro-rating his signing bonus. Still, that's just not how Denver usually operates. John Elway and the front office prefer more of a "pay as you go" scheme, which maximizes their flexibility at any given point and pretty much eliminates any chances of ever having any significant amount of dead money on the cap.

Denver could still keep Moreno around, especially if he's willing to accept a below-market deal, but the franchise tends to be extremely frugal where possible. They asked Elvis Dumervil to take a pay cut this last offseason not because they needed the cap space, but because they thought his contributions were not worth the cost. They were a top-tier franchise in the middle of their superbowl window, and they believed Dumervil was a good player, but they still parted with him because the economics weren't quite right. There is a lot of speculation that Denver never trusted McGahee's health and they released him to avoid the possibility of being forced to pay an injury settlement later, but it's important to remember that Willis also looked really good for Denver last year, and the Broncos still parted ways with him over a couple million dollars this offseason. With Denver already having invested a significant amount of resources in terms of draft capital and roster spaces at the running back position, I think there's a good chance that they opt to forego signing Moreno for the long term and instead pursue some type of bargain-basement alternative. Again, unless Moreno gives them a pretty substantial hometown discount, in which case all bets are off.

Even in that worst-case scenario, though, Moreno will still be just 27 years old, and some team is going to come calling looking to make him their new featured back.

 
this trade in my 12 team redraft:

Knowshon Moreno and Jay Cutler for

Dez Bryant, Jaquizz Rogers, and Colin Kaepernick

 
I traded him for Jason Snelling a few weeks ago, lol. OOPS! Good thing my team is 5 -1 but yeesh it woulda been fun to start him behind Peterson and Foster.

 
Traded Moreno and Aj Green for Jimmy Graham last week.

Seemed like good value then, now feel I may have overpaid but can't look back........

 
this trade in my 12 team redraft:

Knowshon Moreno and Jay Cutler for

Dez Bryant, Jaquizz Rogers, and Colin Kaepernick
Thats a bit much and I really like Moreno
That is a big price! I mean there are maybe 3 WRs I'd take over Dez.
Wowsers. Without knowing anything else, too too much, imo.
Moreno owner asked for a starting caliber receiver. I opened by offering Andre Johnson. I realized pretty quickly why he didn't counter mine.

 
I need a RB and this guy is declining a Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck w/ Reub Randle offer.

Also denied Josh Gordon straight up.

He countered with my Demaryius for his Moreno.....I didn't realize this guy was worth so much.

 
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I need a RB and this guy is declining a Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck w/ Reub Randle offer.

Also denied Josh Gordon straight up.

He countered with my Demaryius for his Moreno.....I didn't realize this guy was worth so much.
On pace for 1500 total yards and 18 TD's

 
I wandered into this thread just to point out two things. One, you may have mis-spelled aisle. Like, as in the supermarket "price check on aisle 9" reference from the title.

But, two, if you were going for the "Isle of Dr. Moreno" angle.... bravo.

 
I need a RB and this guy is declining a Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck w/ Reub Randle offer.

Also denied Josh Gordon straight up.

He countered with my Demaryius for his Moreno.....I didn't realize this guy was worth so much.
On pace for 1500 total yards and 18 TD's
But can he keep it up?

And 3 of those TD's were 1-2 yarders last week vs the JAGS
Lots more 1-2 yarders to come I would think.

 
I need a RB and this guy is declining a Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck w/ Reub Randle offer.

Also denied Josh Gordon straight up.

He countered with my Demaryius for his Moreno.....I didn't realize this guy was worth so much.
On pace for 1500 total yards and 18 TD's
But can he keep it up?

And 3 of those TD's were 1-2 yarders last week vs the JAGS
Lots more 1-2 yarders to come I would think.
Not to ask a WDIS question here, but is he worth a Dem. Thomas if hurting at RB? This is just huge head scratcher for me

 
Woke up to seeing this deal go down in my 12 team start 2 RB + 1 flex dynasty league. Wasn't involved but I'm not sure which side I prefer yet

Team 1 Gave - Knowshon Moreno, Steve Smith, 2014 3rd (mid-late)

Team 2 Gave - Josh Gordon, Frank Gore/Hunter, 2014 2nd (mid, boarderline playoff team)

At first glance I say Gordon/Gore but Moreno looks like a COMPLETELY different player this year. Could be huge for contending teams

 
I need a RB and this guy is declining a Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck w/ Reub Randle offer.

Also denied Josh Gordon straight up.

He countered with my Demaryius for his Moreno.....I didn't realize this guy was worth so much.
On pace for 1500 total yards and 18 TD's
But can he keep it up?

And 3 of those TD's were 1-2 yarders last week vs the JAGS
Lots more 1-2 yarders to come I would think.
Not to ask a WDIS question here, but is he worth a Dem. Thomas if hurting at RB? This is just huge head scratcher for me
If you really need a rb and are ok at WR minus DT, yeah it's not crazy.

 
I can't get the Moreno owner in my keeper to let go of him and the guy hasn't started him all season. Keeps playing spiller. Very weird

 
What is real funny about Moreno is how quickly his value can change...

If a guy like Dez Bryant has two mediocre games back to back, most owners wouldn't let him go for a discounted rate. I'd bet anything that if Moreno has two slow games back to back, his owner would take a box of popcorn for him.

 
I need a RB and this guy is declining a Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck w/ Reub Randle offer.

Also denied Josh Gordon straight up.

He countered with my Demaryius for his Moreno.....I didn't realize this guy was worth so much.
On pace for 1500 total yards and 18 TD's
But can he keep it up?

And 3 of those TD's were 1-2 yarders last week vs the JAGS
Lots more 1-2 yarders to come I would think.
Not to ask a WDIS question here, but is he worth a Dem. Thomas if hurting at RB? This is just huge head scratcher for me
I just traded D. Thomas and Kaep for Moreno and Stafford in my PPR league. I have Green, Gordon,K. Allen, Shorts, Hilton, and Givens behind him so I think that was a fair deal.

 
What is real funny about Moreno is how quickly his value can change...

If a guy like Dez Bryant has two mediocre games back to back, most owners wouldn't let him go for a discounted rate. I'd bet anything that if Moreno has two slow games back to back, his owner would take a box of popcorn for him.
I am afraid of this as well but his schedule going forward makes me believe that he's going to keep putting up these numbers. Minus the two KC games left I think they are all very favorable to him.

 
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What is real funny about Moreno is how quickly his value can change...

If a guy like Dez Bryant has two mediocre games back to back, most owners wouldn't let him go for a discounted rate. I'd bet anything that if Moreno has two slow games back to back, his owner would take a box of popcorn for him.
This I am a little of afraid of but his schedule going forward makes me believe that he's going to keep putting up these numbers. Minus the two KC games left I think they are all very favorable to him.
I had to read that first sentence 3 times. Made me feel drunk as a skunk.

 
What is real funny about Moreno is how quickly his value can change...

If a guy like Dez Bryant has two mediocre games back to back, most owners wouldn't let him go for a discounted rate. I'd bet anything that if Moreno has two slow games back to back, his owner would take a box of popcorn for him.
This I am a little of afraid of but his schedule going forward makes me believe that he's going to keep putting up these numbers. Minus the two KC games left I think they are all very favorable to him.
I had to read that first sentence 3 times. Made me feel drunk as a skunk.
I read it 2 or 3 times too, and almost quoted it, but decided against it....

 
What is real funny about Moreno is how quickly his value can change...

If a guy like Dez Bryant has two mediocre games back to back, most owners wouldn't let him go for a discounted rate. I'd bet anything that if Moreno has two slow games back to back, his owner would take a box of popcorn for him.
This I am a little of afraid of but his schedule going forward makes me believe that he's going to keep putting up these numbers. Minus the two KC games left I think they are all very favorable to him.
I had to read that first sentence 3 times. Made me feel drunk as a skunk.
I read it 2 or 3 times too, and almost quoted it, but decided against it....
Yeah, I butchered the hell out of that. My bad. Hitting the edit button now.

 
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Even the KC games don't scare me very much. As good as their D is playing, I believe there are simply too many weapons to cover and the audible to goal line runs is absolute gravy.

 
Even the KC games don't scare me very much. As good as their D is playing, I believe there are simply too many weapons to cover and the audible to goal line runs is absolute gravy.
That's what I love watching through all this. When Peyton gets to the line, he knows exactly what is happening and changes the play on the fly. He's a friggin master. I don't care how good the D, he's going to carve it up.

 
I need a RB and this guy is declining a Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck w/ Reub Randle offer.

Also denied Josh Gordon straight up.

He countered with my Demaryius for his Moreno.....I didn't realize this guy was worth so much.
On pace for 1500 total yards and 18 TD's
But can he keep it up?

And 3 of those TD's were 1-2 yarders last week vs the JAGS
Denver averages 5 offensive TDs, and has scored at least 4 in every game. Knowshon Moreno leads the league in carries inside the 5 yard line. He's not going to get a pair of short plunges every week, but there'll be plenty of TDs to be had going forward.

 
Just saw Moreno go for two 2014 Firsts

Projected 5-8 range and 10-12 range
As a Moreno owner in a pure dynasty league, I would probably take that....
I would, too. In one league I emailed out that Moreno was available, and the only offer I've received so far is Tandon Doss and a 2nd rounder. I respectfully declined.

I think at the bare minimum, Moreno is worth a mid-to-high rookie first right now.

 
I've held onto him each week since trading for him, waiting for a sign that I should package him and upgrade somewhere else. Did the same thing last year and ended up riding him until the end. It kinda feels like its too good to be true and any game now the Broncos will turn to a more definitive committee.

I'm hanging on for now but my gut tells me that Moreno's value will never be higher than it is today. I hope that I'm wrong.

 
I've held onto him each week since trading for him, waiting for a sign that I should package him and upgrade somewhere else. Did the same thing last year and ended up riding him until the end. It kinda feels like its too good to be true and any game now the Broncos will turn to a more definitive committee.

I'm hanging on for now but my gut tells me that Moreno's value will never be higher than it is today. I hope that I'm wrong.
Well he is coming off a 3 TD performance and 3 straight great weeks, so this isn't exactly going out on a limb re his value peaking. But I don't see a committee situation unless Moreno gets hurt. He has proven over and over that he can be relied on in every phase of the game while the other two backs have proven repeatedly to be unreliable (fumbles, pass protection, dropped passes).

 
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I think his value continues to grow when others realize he's not going anywhere. Also it's hard to pay premium when you could have had the player foe peanuts before the season began.

I have tried to acquire him in leagues as I believe his value grows.

 
I'll be in Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday just to get my first in-person look at Knowshon Moreno. :-)

Oh, I guess I won't mind seeing the two quarterbacks as well.

 
Was offered Peyton for my Moreno, RG3, and Boykin........redraft

Probably would do it if I wasnt too light at RB. Only have Matthews, Morris, Joique, Vereen as my RBs....4 pt passing Tds too..which hurts it some...

Still..hard not to accept it for Peyton....

 
I just traded Jordan Cameron away for Moreno. I've got J Thomas and wanted to keep Cameron for the bye week but injuries at RB Murray and Martin plus Forte on a bye meant I had to push through this deal.

 
Was offered Peyton for my Moreno, RG3, and Boykin........redraft

Probably would do it if I wasnt too light at RB. Only have Matthews, Morris, Joique, Vereen as my RBs....4 pt passing Tds too..which hurts it some...

Still..hard not to accept it for Peyton....
Outside of Peyton, I think I like RG3 more then anybody this week.

 
Wow, I can't wait to sell this dude high after another big game. Wonder what I can get for him.

Or maybe I'll just hang on to him and enjoy the glory of winning my league with one of the top FF running backs around.

Decisions, decisions

 
In a dynasty league I was offered Spiller for my Moreno and 2014 1st rd pick. I declined that pretty quickly...

 
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Wow, I can't wait to sell this dude high after another big game. Wonder what I can get for him.

Or maybe I'll just hang on to him and enjoy the glory of winning my league with one of the top FF running backs around.

Decisions, decisions
Moreno's top 5 in fantasy points to date, and in PPR leagues, he was the #1 RB last week. If you can't sell him high now, you will never be able to sell him high.

Still haven't been able to get a serious offer for Moreno in any dynasty leagues. People are treating him like he's a 29-year-old putting up RB20-type numbers. He's 26 and putting up top-5 fantasy numbers. Even on the teams where I'm rebuilding, I'd much rather just hold Moreno and gamble that his career resurgence has some staying power than sell him for the garbage people are willing to give for him.

 
I traded him away in week 3 for Kendall Hunter and what is now likely to be an early 2nd.

Looking at the value you can get now, I wish I'd held him for a few weeks longer and got a 1st for him but those are the breaks.

 
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Wow, I can't wait to sell this dude high after another big game. Wonder what I can get for him.

Or maybe I'll just hang on to him and enjoy the glory of winning my league with one of the top FF running backs around.

Decisions, decisions
Moreno's top 5 in fantasy points to date, and in PPR leagues, he was the #1 RB last week. If you can't sell him high now, you will never be able to sell him high.

Still haven't been able to get a serious offer for Moreno in any dynasty leagues. People are treating him like he's a 29-year-old putting up RB20-type numbers. He's 26 and putting up top-5 fantasy numbers. Even on the teams where I'm rebuilding, I'd much rather just hold Moreno and gamble that his career resurgence has some staying power than sell him for the garbage people are willing to give for him.
That's where I'm at. I'm technically rebuilding. Stocked up on first rounders and took guys like Bell, Austin :bag: Eiffert, Robert Woods (can we get EJ back, PLEASE!) and all of the sudden, I'm in the playoff hunt. Part of me wants to sell, but not sure what I would get offered. I might start a conversation on it and see what bait is dropped in the water. I'll report back...

 
The past 3 weeks he's faced three of the worst run defenses - Jags, Colts and Redskins - and averaged 2.86 YPC.

Fantasy points are there with the TD's and receptions but is he really that talented of a runner?

 

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