Priest = Bust (1 Viewer)

[Cunning Linguist]

I think it is plain to see that KC is running a true RBBC now. Priest will not put up the numbers he used with LJ getting the touches. Priest used to get alone what Priest and LJ got last night 116/2TD 15rec.You saw a good day for Priest last night. That was near the ceiling. Upside is severly limited.:feelinbetterabouttradinghimlastyear:

 

[-OZ-]

So he isn't the #1 RB anymore. He's still a top 10, ranking at #7 in my leagues, so he is not a "bust".FWIW, LT and Alexander are #11 and 12 right now.

 

[Da Guru]

Not a bust, but he sure won`t put up the "Priest" numbers you were used to.

 

[David Yudkin]

Let's try this one more time . . .Priest could get the same workload he always has (300-320 carries) with Johnson getting the leftovers, which in KC could still be 150 carries because they run so much.The KC line has been banged up and the Chiefs have not had many goal line opportunities yet.Holmes could still get 20 TD and Johnson could get 10 TD and they STILL would have fewer TD then they did last year when they had 35 TD from the RB spot.Holmes has had 183 yards and 2 TD so far . . . that's on pace for almost 1500 yards and 16 TD and that's assuming he doesn't do any better.He's also on pace for 360 touches REGARDLESS OF WHAT JOHNSON HAS DONE SO FAR. IMO, if Holmes can get anywhere near 360 touches (admittedly unlikely due to his ability to get nicked up), I still think he could be the #1 RB.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Let's try this one more time . . .

Priest could get the same workload he always has (300-320 carries) with Johnson getting the leftovers, which in KC could still be 150 carries because they run so much.

The KC line has been banged up and the Chiefs have not had many goal line opportunities yet.

Holmes could still get 20 TD and Johnson could get 10 TD and they STILL would have fewer TD then they did last year when they had 35 TD from the RB spot.

Holmes has had 183 yards and 2 TD so far . . . that's on pace for almost 1500 yards and 16 TD and that's assuming he doesn't do any better.

He's also on pace for 360 touches REGARDLESS OF WHAT JOHNSON HAS DONE SO FAR.  IMO, if Holmes can get anywhere near 360 touches (admittedly unlikely due to his ability to get nicked up), I still think he could be the #1 RB.

Glad I am not the only one who looks at the numbers

 

[BigTex]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

 

[Raiders Fan]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

 

[David Yudkin]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

After two weeks, Holmes is the #7 RB. He looked slow because he was waiting for blocks to develop that never materialized. He's not a move the pile type of runner, so him trying to hit 2 or 3 guys and push them back would not net much and could get him hurt. What was he supposed to do on sweeps and counters when there were 3 defenders stringing out the play or already in the backfield? It's not his fault the Raiders were getting a could push on defense.

 

[Terpfan]

I only saw a few plays where Holmes did anything. The rest of his carries were weak efforts into line. I blame that on his o-line. Should I be concerned that they are what they are, or can there be improvement as the season progresses? I am not sure if they are regressing because of some new players learning or cuz of injuries. If the o-line does not start getting better, I may start to shop Holmes at a high price.

 

[BigTex]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

After two weeks, Holmes is the #7 RB. He looked slow because he was waiting for blocks to develop that never materialized. He's not a move the pile type of runner, so him trying to hit 2 or 3 guys and push them back would not net much and could get him hurt. What was he supposed to do on sweeps and counters when there were 3 defenders stringing out the play or already in the backfield? It's not his fault the Raiders were getting a could push on defense.

You seemed to be taken this personal? I actually said that people were jumping the gun on him. IMO he didn't look as explosive as he used to. I understand that the line is some what out of wack but maybe I'm just spoiled. I'm used to seeing him score from anywhere on the field. On that first drive how many touches did Holmes have to get before he punched it in? Didn't they have to convert on two fourth down plays?

Hell for what it's worth, I have Holmes and LJ on one of my teams and Holmes is getting the nod every week.

 

[BassNBrew]

I may start to shop Holmes at a high price.

That was two weeks ago before the season started.

 

[sdsjr3]

Let's try this one more time . . .

Priest could get the same workload he always has (300-320 carries) with Johnson getting the leftovers, which in KC could still be 150 carries because they run so much.

The KC line has been banged up and the Chiefs have not had many goal line opportunities yet.

Holmes could still get 20 TD and Johnson could get 10 TD and they STILL would have fewer TD then they did last year when they had 35 TD from the RB spot.

Holmes has had 183 yards and 2 TD so far . . . that's on pace for almost 1500 yards and 16 TD and that's assuming he doesn't do any better.

He's also on pace for 360 touches REGARDLESS OF WHAT JOHNSON HAS DONE SO FAR. IMO, if Holmes can get anywhere near 360 touches (admittedly unlikely due to his ability to get nicked up), I still think he could be the #1 RB.

I'll agree with some posters that LJ looks more explosive than Priest. But Priest is the guy unless hurt. Since it's our job as FF players to make educated guesses as to the future of players, I would bump LJ's #'s up just a tad from what Yudkin just said. I'm thinking closer to 180 and a little less for Priest obviously. That STILL puts Priest in the 300+ carry range and likely will keep him in the upper tier of RBs. That's FAR from a "bust". LJ on the other hand will likely outscore many #1 RBs. That's just crazy...but likely true never-the-less.

 

[Koya]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Did Priest look slow when he accelerated around the corner, beating the CB to the edge for a nice gain?Or late in the game when he made a very nice stop, juke right hop left for his last run of the game (I think it was the last series)?

The answer to anyone that understands the running game and was watching the game last night is simply no. Of course, someone who does not see this also ignores then LJ just hit and goes right down (while he is, admittedly, more explosive than Priest) nor do they recognize the nice 1 or 2 yard "runs" that Priest salvaged after being hit in the backfield.

Please lemmings. Just because 90% of the message board is jumping off the Priest bandwagon, and just because he is not the player that will score 25+ points on a weekly basis does not make him a bust.

But hey, why think for yourself when you can think like the message board bandwagons?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think it is plain to see that KC is running a true RBBC now. Priest will not put up the numbers he used with LJ getting the touches. Priest used to get alone what Priest and LJ got last night 116/2TD 15rec.

You saw a good day for Priest last night. That was near the ceiling. Upside is severly limited.

:feelinbetterabouttradinghimlastyear:

He's not a bust, he's scored both weeks. Before you throw him in that category, let's talk about Rb's like Jamal Lewis and Kevin Jones as busts before we talk about a guy who's scoring every week.

 

[BigTex]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Did Priest look slow when he accelerated around the corner, beating the CB to the edge for a nice gain?Or late in the game when he made a very nice stop, juke right hop left for his last run of the game (I think it was the last series)?

The answer to anyone that understands the running game and was watching the game last night is simply no. Of course, someone who does not see this also ignores then LJ just hit and goes right down (while he is, admittedly, more explosive than Priest) nor do they recognize the nice 1 or 2 yard "runs" that Priest salvaged after being hit in the backfield.

Please lemmings. Just because 90% of the message board is jumping off the Priest bandwagon, and just because he is not the player that will score 25+ points on a weekly basis does not make him a bust.

But hey, why think for yourself when you can think like the message board bandwagons?

You need to reread my post.

 

[Koya]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Did Priest look slow when he accelerated around the corner, beating the CB to the edge for a nice gain?Or late in the game when he made a very nice stop, juke right hop left for his last run of the game (I think it was the last series)?

The answer to anyone that understands the running game and was watching the game last night is simply no. Of course, someone who does not see this also ignores then LJ just hit and goes right down (while he is, admittedly, more explosive than Priest) nor do they recognize the nice 1 or 2 yard "runs" that Priest salvaged after being hit in the backfield.

Please lemmings. Just because 90% of the message board is jumping off the Priest bandwagon, and just because he is not the player that will score 25+ points on a weekly basis does not make him a bust.

But hey, why think for yourself when you can think like the message board bandwagons?

You need to reread my post.

I did. It seems many on this board - not neccesarily you - have said Priest has really lost something. I dont see it - if anything, half a step and I wouldnt be surprised to see him round into form as the season moves on, especially since he is taking a significantly lighter load so far. Priest has never been the most explosive, fastest, most "wow" back out there - but I dont know of anyone that is as patient, sets up his blocks better, and somehow gets to the corner with a very quick burst (something post first step, before full speed - he goes from 2nd gear to 3rd better than just about anyone Ive seen). But people see this and jump on the general line that he is slower and not as good.

Then they see the train that is LJ come in, run through a gaping hole really fast and are wowed. What about the times LJ went down at first contact?

It seems people are wishing for their prognostications to come through - and many have put Priest in the grave already.

I watched the game - he still has it. Now, if only their OL can get back to what it has usually been and we can see some more Priest like numbers - we wont have 3-4 TD games because of LJ, but I would expect a few more two TD games.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Did Priest look slow when he accelerated around the corner, beating the CB to the edge for a nice gain?Or late in the game when he made a very nice stop, juke right hop left for his last run of the game (I think it was the last series)?

The answer to anyone that understands the running game and was watching the game last night is simply no. Of course, someone who does not see this also ignores then LJ just hit and goes right down (while he is, admittedly, more explosive than Priest) nor do they recognize the nice 1 or 2 yard "runs" that Priest salvaged after being hit in the backfield.

Please lemmings. Just because 90% of the message board is jumping off the Priest bandwagon, and just because he is not the player that will score 25+ points on a weekly basis does not make him a bust.

But hey, why think for yourself when you can think like the message board bandwagons?

You need to reread my post.

I did. It seems many on this board - not neccesarily you - have said Priest has really lost something. I dont see it - if anything, half a step and I wouldnt be surprised to see him round into form as the season moves on, especially since he is taking a significantly lighter load so far. Priest has never been the most explosive, fastest, most "wow" back out there - but I dont know of anyone that is as patient, sets up his blocks better, and somehow gets to the corner with a very quick burst (something post first step, before full speed - he goes from 2nd gear to 3rd better than just about anyone Ive seen). But people see this and jump on the general line that he is slower and not as good.

Then they see the train that is LJ come in, run through a gaping hole really fast and are wowed. What about the times LJ went down at first contact?

It seems people are wishing for their prognostications to come through - and many have put Priest in the grave already.

I watched the game - he still has it. Now, if only their OL can get back to what it has usually been and we can see some more Priest like numbers - we wont have 3-4 TD games because of LJ, but I would expect a few more two TD games.

You need to reread my post. He has lost something. Touches.

 

[RBM]

I did. It seems many on this board - not neccesarily you - have said Priest has really lost something. I dont see it - if anything, half a step and I wouldnt be surprised to see him round into form as the season moves on, especially since he is taking a significantly lighter load so far.

Priest has never been the most explosive, fastest, most "wow" back out there - but I dont know of anyone that is as patient, sets up his blocks better, and somehow gets to the corner with a very quick burst (something post first step, before full speed - he goes from 2nd gear to 3rd better than just about anyone Ive seen). But people see this and jump on the general line that he is slower and not as good.

Then they see the train that is LJ come in, run through a gaping hole really fast and are wowed. What about the times LJ went down at first contact?

It seems people are wishing for their prognostications to come through - and many have put Priest in the grave already.

I watched the game - he still has it. Now, if only their OL can get back to what it has usually been and we can see some more Priest like numbers - we wont have 3-4 TD games because of LJ, but I would expect a few more two TD games.

Thought Priest was pretty good last night. Raiders didnt give him much room, but he still managed some decent #s with a couple of nice runs late. I feel like we havent seen Priest at his best yet this year, and we still have 170 yards and 2 tds

 

[stugnut]

You need to reread my post. He has lost something. Touches.

It's true. Through two games last year he had 42 carries. This year through two games he has had 41 carries.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

When is Roaf coming back? The line suffers without his presence....

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How is this a true RBBC? Carries for Priest compared to LJ are still well up over 65%. Priest WOULD have had both TD's last night were it not for having to come out for a couple plays due to that shoulder stinger. If that doesn't happen, we're looking at about 21 carries for Priest and 7 for LJ with no TD's.As an aside, Priest has put up the same amount of fantasy points thusfar as LT.

 

[el-gato-grande]

2005 Stats as of Week 2LaDanian TomlinsonRushing: 39/124/3 TDRec: 0/0/0Shaun AlexanderRushing: 42/217/1 TDRec: 2/11/0------------------------------------------Priest HolmesRushing: 41/160/2 TDRec: 4/20/0Larry JohnsonRushing: 18/151/3 TDRec: 1/11/0------------------------------------------So, I guess this means that Alexander and LT owners should panic and dump them. Clearly, they have "lost something" too. The TD production of the Kansas City offense has always been what has separated Holmes and now Johnson from the rest of the field. With the defense playing better and the offense still not having reached its potential due to injuries, there is nothing to indicate that the TDs won't keep coming. You guppies can do whatever you want, but I'm holding onto both Priest and LJ. If I can shore up the rest of my team, they'll take me to a championship.

 

[toofunny]

I did. It seems many on this board - not neccesarily you - have said Priest has really lost something. I dont see it - if anything, half a step and I wouldnt be surprised to see him round into form as the season moves on, especially since he is taking a significantly lighter load so far. Priest has never been the most explosive, fastest, most "wow" back out there - but I dont know of anyone that is as patient, sets up his blocks better, and somehow gets to the corner with a very quick burst (something post first step, before full speed - he goes from 2nd gear to 3rd better than just about anyone Ive seen). But people see this and jump on the general line that he is slower and not as good.Then they see the train that is LJ come in, run through a gaping hole really fast and are wowed. What about the times LJ went down at first contact?It seems people are wishing for their prognostications to come through - and many have put Priest in the grave already. I watched the game - he still has it. Now, if only their OL can get back to what it has usually been and we can see some more Priest like numbers - we wont have 3-4 TD games because of LJ, but I would expect a few more two TD games.

Priest never been fast and explosive? How many times have you actually *watched* him play. Priest was the most explosive back in the league. He'd get a hint of a hole and he'd be gone. In his prime he was nearly unstoppable. And yeah he's still a great RB. But like you said, he has lost a little. 20+ TD numbers are probably out of range, he's probably only a normal elite FF RB looking at 15-17 TDs and 1,500 yards. So for this year, Holmes will still get his, no doubt. My concerns would be, what happens if he gets a nagging injury he'd normally play through? Will he sit a couple of weeks? What if the Chiefs clinch early, will he sit the final 2 games? Will his carries be reduced in the 2nd half of the year if they are 7-1 type record to "save" him for the playoffs? Bottom line is Holmes isn't losing his job, but this also isn't the 27 TD Holmes we're watching either. Regardless of who you own, it's a situation you need to keep up on week to week.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Priest still seems like a very solid first round pick at this point. As long as he continues to get 20 or so carries a game, he should be ok. LJ looks more explosive but Priest has shown some good moves as well. If Vermeil holds true to his 2-1 split, then Priest should finish top 10 for sure.

 

[Stinger Ray]

I took Priest at #4 in one of my leagues and so far he's scored more points than the 3 RB's taken ahead of him.

 

[NYG Endzone]

OMGThis crapola is getting carried away

 

[Jack McCoy]

2005 Stats as of Week 2

LaDanian Tomlinson

Rushing: 39/124/3 TD

Rec: 0/0/0

Shaun Alexander

Rushing: 42/217/1 TD

Rec: 2/11/0

------------------------------------------

Priest Holmes

Rushing: 41/160/2 TD

Rec: 4/20/0

Larry Johnson

Rushing: 18/151/3 TD

Rec: 1/11/0

------------------------------------------

So, I guess this means that Alexander and LT owners should panic and dump them. Clearly, they have "lost something" too.

The TD production of the Kansas City offense has always been what has separated Holmes and now Johnson from the rest of the field. With the defense playing better and the offense still not having reached its potential due to injuries, there is nothing to indicate that the TDs won't keep coming. You guppies can do whatever you want, but I'm holding onto both Priest and LJ. If I can shore up the rest of my team, they'll take me to a championship.

The comparison to Alexander and Tomlinson is a little apples-and-oranges. Neither of them has Holmes's injury history or years, nor do they have a (maybe) better running back breathing down their necks. And neither Alexander nor Tomlinson has another back on his team who has half the number of carries that he does (e.g. Holmes 41, Johnson 18). Although it's not time to panic or to call Holmes a bust, I think that Holmes owners have to be concerned.

And I definitely think that, by the end of the season, he will have proved to be a bust with regard to his average draft position. Johnson in the fifth round (or even earlier) is looking more and more like a shark pick.

 

[NYG Endzone]

You need to reread my post. He has lost something. Touches.

It's true. Through two games last year he had 42 carries. This year through two games he has had 41 carries.

 

[Koya]

I did.  It seems many on this board - not neccesarily you - have said Priest has really lost something.  I dont see it - if anything, half a step and I wouldnt be surprised to see him round into form as the season moves on, especially since he is taking a significantly lighter load so far.

Priest has never been the most explosive, fastest, most "wow" back out there - but I dont know of anyone that is as patient, sets up his blocks better, and somehow gets to the corner with a very quick burst (something post first step, before full speed - he goes from 2nd gear to 3rd better than just about anyone Ive seen).  But people see this and jump on the general line that he is slower and not as good.

Then they see the train that is LJ come in, run through a gaping hole really fast and are wowed.  What about the times LJ went down at first contact?

It seems people are wishing for their prognostications to come through - and many have put Priest in the grave already.

I watched the game - he still has it.  Now, if only their OL can get back to what it has usually been and we can see some more Priest like numbers - we wont have 3-4 TD games because of LJ, but I would expect a few more two TD games.

Priest never been fast and explosive? How many times have you actually *watched* him play. Priest was the most explosive back in the league. He'd get a hint of a hole and he'd be gone. In his prime he was nearly unstoppable. And yeah he's still a great RB. But like you said, he has lost a little. 20+ TD numbers are probably out of range, he's probably only a normal elite FF RB looking at 15-17 TDs and 1,500 yards. So for this year, Holmes will still get his, no doubt.

My concerns would be, what happens if he gets a nagging injury he'd normally play through? Will he sit a couple of weeks? What if the Chiefs clinch early, will he sit the final 2 games? Will his carries be reduced in the 2nd half of the year if they are 7-1 type record to "save" him for the playoffs?

Bottom line is Holmes isn't losing his job, but this also isn't the 27 TD Holmes we're watching either. Regardless of who you own, it's a situation you need to keep up on week to week.

I have actually owned Priest in three seasons, including this one. I have watched him a lot. He never had the moves that LT has, nor Portis nor the other explosively quick backs. What Priest always did have, better than all others I have seen, is the combination of vision along with setting up his blocks.Like I said, he goes from 2nd to 3rd gear (think of your example, when the hole opens and he exploses) about as well as anyone I have seen. Combined with his vision and ability to set up and follow a block, Priest becomes lethal.

On his run to the outside (sweep left) last night, I saw this quickness that I had not been sure still was in the tank. But it was/is.

Like you, I believe Priest is no longer a fantasy god. But, he is about as solid as the other 1st round picks, with a bit more injury risk but a bit less game to game flop risk. Other than LT, I dont see anyone who has a better chance at 1-3 TDs every game.

But again, for those expecting 30 points every week, those days are gone.

 

[Keys Myaths]

You need to reread my post. He has lost something. Touches.

It's true. Through two games last year he had 42 carries. This year through two games he has had 41 carries.

Counting the two carries he missed out on because he was out for two running plays with the elbow...He's carried more than last year.

Relax, people.

 

[Judge Smails]

Boy, last night was an emotional FF rollercoaster. By halftime, I'm thinking OK, this is good, because LJ is showing he's the much more explosive back and may get his chance. Then in the 4th quarter Priest stopped stutter stepping and looked very good. LJ sure got stuffed a few times too. Anybody would vs. T. Washington. I am now leaning to believing that Priest will be the starter, all year, and be very productive, once Roaf gets back. He hit those seams fine, and for speed, I agree with above poster that said he's explosive going from 2nd to 3rd gear. LJ is fast from the blocks. But seeing Priest hit the seam, then beat the linebacker around the sideline was all I needed to see. If I didn't own him, I'd actually be buying Priest right now, for as low as you are ever going to see him. Nobody is going to dump him for trash, but he's attainable.

 

[freelander]

2005 Stats as of Week 2

LaDanian Tomlinson

Rushing: 39/124/3 TD

Rec: 0/0/0

Shaun Alexander

Rushing: 42/217/1 TD

Rec: 2/11/0

------------------------------------------

Priest Holmes

Rushing: 41/160/2 TD

Rec: 4/20/0

Larry Johnson

Rushing: 18/151/3 TD

Rec: 1/11/0

------------------------------------------

So, I guess this means that Alexander and LT owners should panic and dump them.  Clearly, they have "lost something" too. 

The TD production of the Kansas City offense has always been what has separated Holmes and now Johnson from the rest of the field.    With the defense playing better and the offense still not having reached its potential due to injuries, there is nothing to indicate that the TDs won't keep coming.  You guppies can do whatever you want, but I'm holding onto both Priest and LJ.  If I can shore up the rest of my team, they'll take me to a championship. 

The comparison to Alexander and Tomlinson is a little apples-and-oranges. Neither of them has Holmes's injury history or years, nor do they have a (maybe) better running back breathing down their necks. And neither Alexander nor Tomlinson has another back on his team who has half the number of carries that he does (e.g. Holmes 41, Johnson 18).

I'm not sure I get your point here. You could easily turn all that around (injury history, strong back-up) and wonder how Priests numbers are still better at this point in the season.

 

[Keys Myaths]

If I didn't own him, I'd actually be buying Priest right now, for as low as you are ever going to see him. Nobody is going to dump him for trash, but he's attainable.

This is what I'm going to try and do.Probably a Carnell/FWP combination for Holmes, trying to capitalize on their value right now. The guy who has Holmes only has one quality starting RB.

 

[*****]

Does anyone else think the Chiefs intend to run even more this year than last year? Right now Priest and LJ are on track for 480, but 500 rushes may not be out of the question.If they actually run 500 times with Priest getting 300 and LJ 200, wouldn't Priest still be a legit first rounder? ...even if he only gets 1 or 2 30 pt games this season?I think so.It's hard to watch another back come in for every 3rd series, but the fact of the matter is that there appear to be enough carries to go around. It's a unique situation that may get worse as the season goes on, or it may be a case of a rising tide lifting all boats.

 

[Jack McCoy]

2005 Stats as of Week 2

LaDanian Tomlinson

Rushing: 39/124/3 TD

Rec: 0/0/0

Shaun Alexander

Rushing: 42/217/1 TD

Rec: 2/11/0

------------------------------------------

Priest Holmes

Rushing: 41/160/2 TD

Rec: 4/20/0

Larry Johnson

Rushing: 18/151/3 TD

Rec: 1/11/0

------------------------------------------

So, I guess this means that Alexander and LT owners should panic and dump them. Clearly, they have "lost something" too.

The TD production of the Kansas City offense has always been what has separated Holmes and now Johnson from the rest of the field. With the defense playing better and the offense still not having reached its potential due to injuries, there is nothing to indicate that the TDs won't keep coming. You guppies can do whatever you want, but I'm holding onto both Priest and LJ. If I can shore up the rest of my team, they'll take me to a championship.

The comparison to Alexander and Tomlinson is a little apples-and-oranges. Neither of them has Holmes's injury history or years, nor do they have a (maybe) better running back breathing down their necks. And neither Alexander nor Tomlinson has another back on his team who has half the number of carries that he does (e.g. Holmes 41, Johnson 18).

I'm not sure I get your point here. You could easily turn all that around (injury history, strong back-up) and wonder how Priests numbers are still better at this point in the season.

Point taken.What I meant is that I am more concerned about Priest right now (because of those reasons that I listed) than I am about Tomlinson or Alexander, even though Priest's numbers have been better so far. In other words, his good numbers (at the moment) don't allay my long-terms concerns, whereas I have no long-term concerns about Alexander or Tomlinson despite their slow starts.

 

[Wingnut]

So what the Priest situation comes down to is that there is no longer the huge dropoff between him and the next best RB. The guy that took Priest doesnt have the HUGE advantage he has in the past, but Priest is still a bonafide stud.Preist's coming down to earth just levels the RB playing field a bit.

 

[14464]

I think it is plain to see that KC is running a true RBBC now. Priest will not put up the numbers he used with LJ getting the touches. Priest used to get alone what Priest and LJ got last night 116/2TD 15rec.

You saw a good day for Priest last night. That was near the ceiling. Upside is severly limited.

:feelinbetterabouttradinghimlastyear:

Please see my postings on this last week...

 

[14464]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Still can't see why people won't accept this. He is SLOW, lost his xtra gear and after every run of 15 yards or greater he takes himself out of the game.People wake up.

 

[Koya]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Still can't see why people won't accept this. He is SLOW, lost his xtra gear and after every run of 15 yards or greater he takes himself out of the game.People wake up.

I love that you can see some people's handles, and you KNOW what their take will be - because no amount of fact or observation could seemingly change their minds.Once again, I guess you didnt see Priest on the sweep to the left where he got the corner - vintage Priest.

Nor did you see that when the Raiders stuffed the line, while Priest wiggled for a couple yards after contact, LJ went down.

Now, again, LJ is more explosive and when there are big holes has a better chance to take it to the house - but that doesnt make him the better back just yet.

But hey, once again, why let the realities that are in front of you tarnish your preconceived conclusions.

Now, about not having top 10 numbers - I would like to see the 9 RBs, barring injury, that will finish above Priest.

 

[14464]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Still can't see why people won't accept this. He is SLOW, lost his xtra gear and after every run of 15 yards or greater he takes himself out of the game.People wake up.

I love that you can see some people's handles, and you KNOW what their take will be - because no amount of fact or observation could seemingly change their minds.Once again, I guess you didnt see Priest on the sweep to the left where he got the corner - vintage Priest.

Nor did you see that when the Raiders stuffed the line, while Priest wiggled for a couple yards after contact, LJ went down.

Now, again, LJ is more explosive and when there are big holes has a better chance to take it to the house - but that doesnt make him the better back just yet.

But hey, once again, why let the realities that are in front of you tarnish your preconceived conclusions.

Now, about not having top 10 numbers - I would like to see the 9 RBs, barring injury, that will finish above Priest.

Perhaps you should watch the game before commenting? That's a good start.

 

[Koya]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Still can't see why people won't accept this. He is SLOW, lost his xtra gear and after every run of 15 yards or greater he takes himself out of the game.People wake up.

I love that you can see some people's handles, and you KNOW what their take will be - because no amount of fact or observation could seemingly change their minds.Once again, I guess you didnt see Priest on the sweep to the left where he got the corner - vintage Priest.

Nor did you see that when the Raiders stuffed the line, while Priest wiggled for a couple yards after contact, LJ went down.

Now, again, LJ is more explosive and when there are big holes has a better chance to take it to the house - but that doesnt make him the better back just yet.

But hey, once again, why let the realities that are in front of you tarnish your preconceived conclusions.

Now, about not having top 10 numbers - I would like to see the 9 RBs, barring injury, that will finish above Priest.

Perhaps you should watch the game before commenting? That's a good start.

Yeah, that always helps your cause - when you call out other people completely ignorant of their previous posts nor what really happened. I watched the game. Maybe you didnt, I dont know? You certainly seem to ignore the yards after contact, LJ's troubles on short yardage, Priests classic leap into the endzone, Priest's nice left sweep run where he beat defenders to the corners as well as Priest's final run of the day where he looked more like the Priest of old.

So, since i not only watched the game, but have watched Priest intently for a number of years now and have detailed what I saw in last nights game specifically to back up my assertions, maybe you want to come back with something more than just your opinion - or just state that what you are saying is no more than opinion, especially in light of facts to the contrary that could be seen by someone who was watching last nights games.

Ball's in your court.

 

[TwinTurbo]

If Priest can manage to get at least 300 carries this season, then he should put up numbers worthy of a top 5 RB. This would require an average of 19-20 carries a game. He is getting that now. I see no reason to be concerned yet, unless LJ cuts further into his touches.I see Priest keeping the #1 spot in this 2 -1 split all season, unless he gets injured. LJ is certainly talented enough to take the #1 spot, but I don't see Vermeil giving it to him. I think the worst case scenario for Priest owners (other than injury) would be a 50/50 split. In that scenario, Priest would likely not finish as a top 10 RB.

 

[Terpfan]

IMO any perceived drop in value for Holmes to be related to his offensive line. I am not too concerned with what Holmes did last year or if he has lost a step compared to faster steps in prev years. What is he doing for me lately? I like the production so far, but does anyone have any insight into the offensive line problems? Is this all on Roaf? When is he coming back?As for trade value, I am pretty sure there are owners in my league that would want to improve their RB by getting Holmes. There are owners that think the best is yet to come for him if you are patient. However, if the collective wisdom and insight from the sharks here can conclude (I know that will never happen here, but play along) that he will not be as productive as people expect, then I should be able to get some good value for him before the guppies in my league know what hit them. He was my #1 pick, but I want to be open to the possibility of getting a better #1 pick. Trying to maximize the trade value, I want to sell before everyone knows I should sell.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO any perceived drop in value for Holmes to be related to his offensive line. I am not too concerned with what Holmes did last year or if he has lost a step compared to faster steps in prev years. What is he doing for me lately? I like the production so far, but does anyone have any insight into the offensive line problems? Is this all on Roaf? When is he coming back?

As for trade value, I am pretty sure there are owners in my league that would want to improve their RB by getting Holmes. There are owners that think the best is yet to come for him if you are patient. However, if the collective wisdom and insight from the sharks here can conclude (I know that will never happen here, but play along) that he will not be as productive as people expect, then I should be able to get some good value for him before the guppies in my league know what hit them. He was my #1 pick, but I want to be open to the possibility of getting a better #1 pick. Trying to maximize the trade value, I want to sell before everyone knows I should sell.

If Priest gets 300+ carries, who will outscore him. I suggest that the list will be very short, if anyone is on it.

 

[kapp]

RBBC? Not for long. It's going to be real hard for Larry Johnson to take a handoff from Trent Green when he's behind bars for beating up his girlfriend...and violating his probation for a previous offense.

 

[el-gato-grande]

2005 Stats as of Week 2

LaDanian Tomlinson

Rushing: 39/124/3 TD

Rec: 0/0/0

Shaun Alexander

Rushing: 42/217/1 TD

Rec: 2/11/0

------------------------------------------

Priest Holmes

Rushing: 41/160/2 TD

Rec: 4/20/0

Larry Johnson

Rushing: 18/151/3 TD

Rec: 1/11/0

------------------------------------------

So, I guess this means that Alexander and LT owners should panic and dump them. Clearly, they have "lost something" too.

The TD production of the Kansas City offense has always been what has separated Holmes and now Johnson from the rest of the field. With the defense playing better and the offense still not having reached its potential due to injuries, there is nothing to indicate that the TDs won't keep coming. You guppies can do whatever you want, but I'm holding onto both Priest and LJ. If I can shore up the rest of my team, they'll take me to a championship.

The comparison to Alexander and Tomlinson is a little apples-and-oranges. Neither of them has Holmes's injury history or years, nor do they have a (maybe) better running back breathing down their necks. And neither Alexander nor Tomlinson has another back on his team who has half the number of carries that he does (e.g. Holmes 41, Johnson 18).

I'm not sure I get your point here. You could easily turn all that around (injury history, strong back-up) and wonder how Priests numbers are still better at this point in the season.

Point taken.What I meant is that I am more concerned about Priest right now (because of those reasons that I listed) than I am about Tomlinson or Alexander, even though Priest's numbers have been better so far. In other words, his good numbers (at the moment) don't allay my long-terms concerns, whereas I have no long-term concerns about Alexander or Tomlinson despite their slow starts.

You SHOULD be concerned. It's been well documented on this board that runningbacks with a history of consecutive 300+ carry seasons are prone to having a down year after such a workload.Alexander

2003 326 carries

2004 353 carries

Tomlinson

2001 339

2002 372

2003 313

2004 339

This is regardless of age, etc. It has happened to Emmitt Smith and Walter Peyton. It happened to Ricky Williams. It happened to Priest last year. This is why a few of us have been advocating handcuffing Priest this year - to get the combined yardage and mitigate the risk. You notice I didn't list Priest's stats alone. That is because I agree that he is an injury risk and the overall production from the KC backfield cannot be counted upon without handcuffing. Its a unique strategy for a unique situation. But, some people still can't think outside of the box on this board and have to be beat upside the head with results until its too late. The Raiders have a pretty tough run defense. You'll see more games like week 1 out of this offense than what we saw on Sunday night gauranteed.

So, I'd be very concerned with LT (in particular) and Alexander. I wouldn't get rid of them, but I'd stash their backups if you can on your roster. They are quality starters if either guy misses a few games.

 

[David Yudkin]

You SHOULD be concerned. It's been well documented on this board that runningbacks with a history of consecutive 300+ carry seasons are prone to having a down year after such a workload.Alexander2003 326 carries2004 353 carriesTomlinson2001 3392002 3722003 3132004 339This is regardless of age, etc. It has happened to Emmitt Smith and Walter Peyton. It happened to Ricky Williams. It happened to Priest last year. This is why a few of us have been advocating handcuffing Priest this year - to get the combined yardage and mitigate the risk. You notice I didn't list Priest's stats alone. That is because I agree that he is an injury risk and the overall production from the KC backfield cannot be counted upon without handcuffing. Its a unique strategy for a unique situation. But, some people still can't think outside of the box on this board and have to be beat upside the head with results until its too late. The Raiders have a pretty tough run defense. You'll see more games like week 1 out of this offense than what we saw on Sunday night gauranteed. So, I'd be very concerned with LT (in particular) and Alexander. I wouldn't get rid of them, but I'd stash their backups if you can on your roster. They are quality starters if either guy misses a few games.

I'm actually starting to be LESS concerned by this than previously. I don't think that there is enough data to suggest that RB with <INSERT NUMBER HERE> are really all that more susceptible to injury than other RB.As I have posted or written several times, a lot has to go right for a RB to average 20-25 carries a game. Even a tweaked ankle or hamstring could stop that RB from doing it again.The real meat of the argument is how likely is someone to get 350 carries (or whatever line in the sand you want to draw it at). The chances are slim, and the smart money would always take the under no matter which back it is.IMO, RB is the most physical fantasy position there is, and any back could go down for a game or the season on any play. That's why projecting RB much past 300 carries or so gets to be more hopeful than realistic. Yes, some guys will play every week (and lately that's been LT, SA, and Martin). But I would be hesitant to project anyone at that uber workload level.So to say LT dropped from 372 to 313 carries is a bad thing, 313 carries is still way more than 3/4 of the league's starting RB.I also am not the biggest fan of handcuffing, as many times the handcuff will not produce anywhere near as good as the stud did. He may do ok to be a decent fill-in, but there is only one LT . . . or SA . . . or whomever. If Alexander went down, I doubt Morris would average 18 ppg. For most backups, we have no idea how well they would do. We could debate this one all day, I suppose. I lot would depend on the size of your roster. If you can stash guys and not care, great. But in leagues with few extra slots, it's tough to have guys that don't play much on your roster.

 

[el-gato-grande]

You SHOULD be concerned. It's been well documented on this board that runningbacks with a history of consecutive 300+ carry seasons are prone to having a down year after such a workload.

Alexander

2003 326 carries

2004 353 carries

Tomlinson

2001 339

2002 372

2003 313

2004 339

This is regardless of age, etc. It has happened to Emmitt Smith and Walter Peyton. It happened to Ricky Williams. It happened to Priest last year. This is why a few of us have been advocating handcuffing Priest this year - to get the combined yardage and mitigate the risk. You notice I didn't list Priest's stats alone. That is because I agree that he is an injury risk and the overall production from the KC backfield cannot be counted upon without handcuffing. Its a unique strategy for a unique situation. But, some people still can't think outside of the box on this board and have to be beat upside the head with results until its too late. The Raiders have a pretty tough run defense. You'll see more games like week 1 out of this offense than what we saw on Sunday night gauranteed.

So, I'd be very concerned with LT (in particular) and Alexander. I wouldn't get rid of them, but I'd stash their backups if you can on your roster. They are quality starters if either guy misses a few games.

I'm actually starting to be LESS concerned by this than previously. I don't think that there is enough data to suggest that RB with <INSERT NUMBER HERE> are really all that more susceptible to injury than other RB.As I have posted or written several times, a lot has to go right for a RB to average 20-25 carries a game. Even a tweaked ankle or hamstring could stop that RB from doing it again.

The real meat of the argument is how likely is someone to get 350 carries (or whatever line in the sand you want to draw it at). The chances are slim, and the smart money would always take the under no matter which back it is.

IMO, RB is the most physical fantasy position there is, and any back could go down for a game or the season on any play. That's why projecting RB much past 300 carries or so gets to be more hopeful than realistic. Yes, some guys will play every week (and lately that's been LT, SA, and Martin). But I would be hesitant to project anyone at that uber workload level.

So to say LT dropped from 372 to 313 carries is a bad thing, 313 carries is still way more than 3/4 of the league's starting RB.

I also am not the biggest fan of handcuffing, as many times the handcuff will not produce anywhere near as good as the stud did. He may do ok to be a decent fill-in, but there is only one LT . . . or SA . . . or whomever. If Alexander went down, I doubt Morris would average 18 ppg. For most backups, we have no idea how well they would do. We could debate this one all day, I suppose. I lot would depend on the size of your roster. If you can stash guys and not care, great. But in leagues with few extra slots, it's tough to have guys that don't play much on your roster.

I always play in 12 team leagues where runningback depth is thin at best. A loss of a LT or SA spells the end of a season in most cases. But, I concede that in smaller leagues or those with small rosters, handcuffing is usually not a good idea or outright impractical. Like everything we preach here, it depends on the situation.

 

[Koya]

No, he didn't look as explosive as he used to but calling him a bust after only two games seems to be jumping the gun.

He looked SLOW and we just started.. Sorry but Priest has lost something.. I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers this year unless he finds some burst. People are still living in the past.. I don't think it will be long before LJ makes it 50/50..

Still can't see why people won't accept this. He is SLOW, lost his xtra gear and after every run of 15 yards or greater he takes himself out of the game.People wake up.

I love that you can see some people's handles, and you KNOW what their take will be - because no amount of fact or observation could seemingly change their minds.Once again, I guess you didnt see Priest on the sweep to the left where he got the corner - vintage Priest.

Nor did you see that when the Raiders stuffed the line, while Priest wiggled for a couple yards after contact, LJ went down.

Now, again, LJ is more explosive and when there are big holes has a better chance to take it to the house - but that doesnt make him the better back just yet.

But hey, once again, why let the realities that are in front of you tarnish your preconceived conclusions.

Now, about not having top 10 numbers - I would like to see the 9 RBs, barring injury, that will finish above Priest.

Perhaps you should watch the game before commenting? That's a good start.

Yeah, that always helps your cause - when you call out other people completely ignorant of their previous posts nor what really happened. I watched the game. Maybe you didnt, I dont know? You certainly seem to ignore the yards after contact, LJ's troubles on short yardage, Priests classic leap into the endzone, Priest's nice left sweep run where he beat defenders to the corners as well as Priest's final run of the day where he looked more like the Priest of old.

So, since i not only watched the game, but have watched Priest intently for a number of years now and have detailed what I saw in last nights game specifically to back up my assertions, maybe you want to come back with something more than just your opinion - or just state that what you are saying is no more than opinion, especially in light of facts to the contrary that could be seen by someone who was watching last nights games.

Ball's in your court.

I'm still waiting.

 

[ko-jack]

Let's try this one more time . . .

Priest could get the same workload he always has (300-320 carries) with Johnson getting the leftovers, which in KC could still be 150 carries because they run so much.

The KC line has been banged up and the Chiefs have not had many goal line opportunities yet.

Holmes could still get 20 TD and Johnson could get 10 TD and they STILL would have fewer TD then they did last year when they had 35 TD from the RB spot.

Holmes has had 183 yards and 2 TD so far . . . that's on pace for almost 1500 yards and 16 TD and that's assuming he doesn't do any better.

He's also on pace for 360 touches REGARDLESS OF WHAT JOHNSON HAS DONE SO FAR.  IMO, if Holmes can get anywhere near 360 touches (admittedly unlikely due to his ability to get nicked up), I still think he could be the #1 RB.

Glad I am not the only one who looks at the numbers

how many of those touches are receptions? thats gotta hurt in PPR leagues.4 catches for 20 yards?

bottom line, the committe will kill him becuase in the past he put up #s in less than 16 starts, then you start LJ in his place and get #1 overall #s. plus he had games that carried FF teams.

now he is 1/2 the man he used to be. which is still good, but its still a let down compared to the old priest. and since no one saw the committee coming, dont sugar coat it