Professional Drafters (1 Viewer)

[Bad_Mo]

Just wondering how many get paid a little something to help draft a team...you know, $20 or so to help someone in need to draft a great team?

Could be a decent little side job for those looking for work...

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

if anyone could convincingly demonstrate that they are +EV playing fantasy sports, you'd be able to pitch that to people with capital and start your own business getting staked into big money leagues.

 

[coolnerd]

Just wondering how many get paid a little something to help draft a team...you know, $20 or so to help someone in need to draft a great team?Could be a decent little side job for those looking for work...

Seems even with underprepared players, the one thing that they want to do is the draft. Probably managing week to week roster management would have a higher upside.

 

[rizzler]

The draft is ALWAYS the best part of the fantasy season.

Honestly, I enjoy it more than winning the league. There's just so much mystique, arrogance and competition in such a short 2hr window... Nothing beats it.

Ya know, except getting ###.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Just wondering how many get paid a little something to help draft a team...you know, $20 or so to help someone in need to draft a great team?Could be a decent little side job for those looking for work...

Seems even with underprepared players, the one thing that they want to do is the draft. Probably managing week to week roster management would have a higher upside.

Without a doubt, everyone wants to draft their team unless it's a high stakes league over a G.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Would rather just pay LHUCKS $20 to draft for the other teams.

I'll pay you when I feel like it.

 

[rizzler]

Would rather just pay LHUCKS $20 to draft for the other teams.I'll pay you when I feel like it.

That made me laugh.Tho Im sure LHUCKS will have a little to say about it

 

[Tick]

I helped out a guy once who couldn't make the draft, and he sent me half his winnings at the end of the season.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Most readers of this board love to draft but I know several guys locally that could not care less whether they draft or not. They play because it's something to do with their buddies.

 

[Papa Georgio]

I helped out a guy once who couldn't make the draft, and he sent me half his winnings at the end of the season.

What you did here...I see it.

 

[cvnpoka]

if anyone could convincingly demonstrate that they are +EV playing fantasy sports, you'd be able to pitch that to people with capital and start your own business getting staked into big money leagues.

there are definitely ppl who do this

 

[FantasyTrader]

If the stakes ever got big enough in FF and we start talking tens of thousands of dollars in 10-12 team leagues, I could see something along the lines of what you're talking about. In fact, within the next 5 years I could see a site spring up that provides crowd sourced fantasy league management. Users could pay a certain % of total prize money to outsource drafting, weekly waiver management, etc. plus a % of money won. The site would track stats of both customers (seeking professional management) and providers (doing the leg work). Envision a site where you could log-in and see a list of the top 50 providers in terms of +EV in leagues they drafted, +EV of their waiver claims for customers and +EV of trades completed, etc.

The equivalent of this for fantasy sports. The reason I think we're a ways off from this though, is that the fantasy industry is still relatively in it's infancy. The hobby still lacks a solid game theory guide because variance is through the roof in fantasy sports, compared to even poker where it's still extremely high.

So basically, I think we're still quite a ways away from bad fantasy owners recognizing they are bad fantasy owners - or there being enough money at stake for them to care about that fact. The other thing that's also holding this back is the Daily Fantasy Sports sites in their short-sightedness continue charging a 10% vig. You have to win 60% of your DFS matches just to break even and few of even the most gifted fantasy players are able to maintain that. When a provider like Fan Duel or Fantasy Factor finally catches on and drops the vig to 1%-2% we'll see that niche boom.

 

[LHUCKS]

Would rather just pay LHUCKS $20 to draft for the other teams.I'll pay you when I feel like it.

 

[Couch Potato]

Where can I sign up to do this?

Sincerely,

Matt Millen

 

[Sweetsie]

BOOM! Roasted.

 

[Captain Hook]

If the stakes ever got big enough in FF and we start talking tens of thousands of dollars in 10-12 team leagues

Already exists - both FFPC and NFFC have leagues with higher entry fees ($5K and $10K) with much higher payouts

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

The draft is ALWAYS the best part of the fantasy season.Honestly, I enjoy it more than winning the league. There's just so much mystique, arrogance and competition in such a short 2hr window... Nothing beats it.Ya know, except getting ###.

I bet more than half the board would opt for a FFL draft over getting ###...

 

[Bri]

I bet more than half the board would opt for a FFL draft over getting ###...

poll?

 

[Four Horsemen]

if anyone could convincingly demonstrate that they are +EV playing fantasy sports, you'd be able to pitch that to people with capital and start your own business getting staked into big money leagues.

Since AIU is using poker references I'm going to continue the analogy. In this analogy, you would have to be so good at fantasy football that you'd have to be able to document that you can regularly win money in big prize leagues. And like AIU points out, that's tough to do. Even the best fantasy football players would have a tough time making a living playing high stake prize leagues. Again, kind of like poker. There are millions that play poker for money (at least there were before Black Friday). But only a handful are so good that they can make a successful living.1) Most people that are aware of high stake leagues are fantasy football enthusiasts. The thrill/fun of the game is probably a much higher motive than profit. Why would they give away one of the most enjoyable parts of the experience?2) How do you document that you're such a star that you can get other people to give you money to draft for them? Most people, especially playing at a high level, are already confident of their abilities. For example, most people here have great respect for Joe Bryant and David Dodds. I certainly do. However, I doubt if anyone here would be intimidated if they were in a league with them. If anything, they'd enjoy the challenge of getting to compete against them. It's different from a good poker player sitting down at a table and suddenly seeing Phil Ivey take a seat.3) It's hard enough to win money in a high stakes league because theoretically you're already facing people good enough at Fantasy Football that they're willing to invest high stakes. You're not going to find Jill the Secretary doing it just because she thinks it would be a hoot to go up against the fellas. Now you have to win extra money to cover the expenses. 4) Nobody in poker would pay someone to play for them. They may stake a player that think is a good investment. But every player dreams of going on the 8-day card rush and winning the World Series, not having it won for them.What you see in poker are training sites. Instead of paying Daniel Negranu to play for you, you join Negranu's site and he helps you become a better player.Fantasy Football training sites aren't really viable because there is so much good information and strategy available for free.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

if anyone could convincingly demonstrate that they are +EV playing fantasy sports, you'd be able to pitch that to people with capital and start your own business getting staked into big money leagues.

Since AIU is using poker references I'm going to continue the analogy. In this analogy, you would have to be so good at fantasy football that you'd have to be able to document that you can regularly win money in big prize leagues. And like AIU points out, that's tough to do. Even the best fantasy football players would have a tough time making a living playing high stake prize leagues. Again, kind of like poker. There are millions that play poker for money (at least there were before Black Friday). But only a handful are so good that they can make a successful living.1) Most people that are aware of high stake leagues are fantasy football enthusiasts. The thrill/fun of the game is probably a much higher motive than profit. Why would they give away one of the most enjoyable parts of the experience?2) How do you document that you're such a star that you can get other people to give you money to draft for them? Most people, especially playing at a high level, are already confident of their abilities. For example, most people here have great respect for Joe Bryant and David Dodds. I certainly do. However, I doubt if anyone here would be intimidated if they were in a league with them. If anything, they'd enjoy the challenge of getting to compete against them. It's different from a good poker player sitting down at a table and suddenly seeing Phil Ivey take a seat.3) It's hard enough to win money in a high stakes league because theoretically you're already facing people good enough at Fantasy Football that they're willing to invest high stakes. You're not going to find Jill the Secretary doing it just because she thinks it would be a hoot to go up against the fellas. Now you have to win extra money to cover the expenses. 4) Nobody in poker would pay someone to play for them. They may stake a player that think is a good investment. But every player dreams of going on the 8-day card rush and winning the World Series, not having it won for them.What you see in poker are training sites. Instead of paying Daniel Negranu to play for you, you join Negranu's site and he helps you become a better player.Fantasy Football training sites aren't really viable because there is so much good information and strategy available for free.

Giant whiff. I think the concept is that there are lots of people out there that ARE NOT interested in whatever the "game" is. They are simply looking for a sizable advantage. If I could give someone money and have a huge advantage in winning - I would care less. The challenge - who the hell could possibly give you the kind of advantage you could really bank on?

 

[Four Horsemen]

if anyone could convincingly demonstrate that they are +EV playing fantasy sports, you'd be able to pitch that to people with capital and start your own business getting staked into big money leagues.

Since AIU is using poker references I'm going to continue the analogy. In this analogy, you would have to be so good at fantasy football that you'd have to be able to document that you can regularly win money in big prize leagues. And like AIU points out, that's tough to do. Even the best fantasy football players would have a tough time making a living playing high stake prize leagues. Again, kind of like poker. There are millions that play poker for money (at least there were before Black Friday). But only a handful are so good that they can make a successful living.1) Most people that are aware of high stake leagues are fantasy football enthusiasts. The thrill/fun of the game is probably a much higher motive than profit. Why would they give away one of the most enjoyable parts of the experience?2) How do you document that you're such a star that you can get other people to give you money to draft for them? Most people, especially playing at a high level, are already confident of their abilities. For example, most people here have great respect for Joe Bryant and David Dodds. I certainly do. However, I doubt if anyone here would be intimidated if they were in a league with them. If anything, they'd enjoy the challenge of getting to compete against them. It's different from a good poker player sitting down at a table and suddenly seeing Phil Ivey take a seat.3) It's hard enough to win money in a high stakes league because theoretically you're already facing people good enough at Fantasy Football that they're willing to invest high stakes. You're not going to find Jill the Secretary doing it just because she thinks it would be a hoot to go up against the fellas. Now you have to win extra money to cover the expenses. 4) Nobody in poker would pay someone to play for them. They may stake a player that think is a good investment. But every player dreams of going on the 8-day card rush and winning the World Series, not having it won for them.What you see in poker are training sites. Instead of paying Daniel Negranu to play for you, you join Negranu's site and he helps you become a better player.Fantasy Football training sites aren't really viable because there is so much good information and strategy available for free.

Giant whiff. I think the concept is that there are lots of people out there that ARE NOT interested in whatever the "game" is. They are simply looking for a sizable advantage. If I could give someone money and have a huge advantage in winning - I would care less. The challenge - who the hell could possibly give you the kind of advantage you could really bank on?

Really? Care to back that up with any kind of numbers or analysis?

 

[saintsfan1977]

I don't think anyone could claim they make bank year after year playing FF unless they are playing with mental midgets. FF has too much luck involved. Its hard enough predicting a team to cover a point spread, but now you want someone to accurately predict the amount of targets, yards, and TDs of your roster, and possibly manage it. You are asking for a time machine or a crystal ball. Those guys who win the $1,000,000 playing FF in Las Vegas would probably NEVER win again. Everyone has a 1/10, 1/12 etc chance at winning but those arent good odds. FF is a hobby and is the worst bet you could make. An entry fee of $100 in a winner takes all is a sucker bet if every coach is evenly knowledgeable on FF.

 

[FunkyTeaParty]

I have drafted for people for various reasons with an almost unanimous payout of half the winnings. It's certainly worked in my favor.

 

[ATC1]

Drafted for my dad once when he couldn't make a draft with his buddies. He won and bought two cigars and a bunch of fireworks. You can not beat father son bonding.

He asked about this year. I asked, "You don't enjoy drafting your own team?" Response: "I like good cigars and a great light show more."

 

[FantasyTrader]

Drafted for my dad once when he couldn't make a draft with his buddies. He won and bought two cigars and a bunch of fireworks. You can not beat father son bonding. He asked about this year. I asked, "You don't enjoy drafting your own team?" Response: "I like good cigars and a great light show more."

I like your dad!

 

[pizzatyme]

I can name 5-10 players from the high stakes FF arena that I'd feel comfortable fronting money with a high expected return.

And there are players who win and have won major cash who aren't playing against "mental midgets".

 

[Hoss Style]

Funny I should see this thread tonight...

About 2 hours ago my buddy from Brasil asks if I can help him with his draft. I say "Sure", excited to answer his questions about players and stratagies.

I go to his laptop and tell him to log into his league. He looks up at me quizzically and says "No, I need help with this. I don't understand how to log-in. This means to see my team, right?"

2 hours later and I've set up his account, linked it to his Facebook page, explained to him what "drafting" actually is, how players are picked and how points are scored.

After all this he says to me "Now you can show me who to pick?"

I came here, printed up a Cheat Sheet, gave it to him and said "Read this. I gotta run."

In hindsight - they'd have to pay me A LOT to do this for total strangers.

 

[Shane Falco]

I don't think anyone could claim they make bank year after year playing FF unless they are playing with mental midgets. FF has too much luck involved. Its hard enough predicting a team to cover a point spread, but now you want someone to accurately predict the amount of targets, yards, and TDs of your roster, and possibly manage it. You are asking for a time machine or a crystal ball. Those guys who win the $1,000,000 playing FF in Las Vegas would probably NEVER win again. Everyone has a 1/10, 1/12 etc chance at winning but those arent good odds. FF is a hobby and is the worst bet you could make. An entry fee of $100 in a winner takes all is a sucker bet if every coach is evenly knowledgeable on FF.

I play 6-8 leagues every year and double my money every year.Luck tends to be an excuse for people who just aren't that good. Kind of like the guys I play poker with

 

[Kanil]

I had a roommate once that got talked into joining a work league. He never watched sports and had no idea what he was doing. They had an online yahoo draft. I drafted for him and basically managed his team the whole year. CHAMPIONSHIP (obviously)! We ended up going out and spending his winnings on new years eve... best new years I've ever had.

 

[Kanil]

I don't think anyone could claim they make bank year after year playing FF unless they are playing with mental midgets. FF has too much luck involved. Its hard enough predicting a team to cover a point spread, but now you want someone to accurately predict the amount of targets, yards, and TDs of your roster, and possibly manage it. You are asking for a time machine or a crystal ball. Those guys who win the $1,000,000 playing FF in Las Vegas would probably NEVER win again. Everyone has a 1/10, 1/12 etc chance at winning but those arent good odds. FF is a hobby and is the worst bet you could make. An entry fee of $100 in a winner takes all is a sucker bet if every coach is evenly knowledgeable on FF.

I play 6-8 leagues every year and double my money every year.Luck tends to be an excuse for people who just aren't that good. Kind of like the guys I play poker with

It's the playing in multiple leagues that reduces the overall variance. I play in 6 leagues and am in the positive every year. It's reliable enough that I plan on using that money for xmas shopping every year.

 

[Hoss Style]

For all those saying they can rely on their winnings every year - sure, I bet most of us can in our average leagues.

You'd have to think, though, that someone who was willing to actually hire a person or service for their draft/season would be in at least a medium stakes league. Probably high stakes.

These people would probably be the more hardcore type of player. The same type that used to "rely" on their income from their other leagues, as well. Until they got in a big money league with all their peers.

Just a thought.

 

[saintsfan1977]

I don't think anyone could claim they make bank year after year playing FF unless they are playing with mental midgets. FF has too much luck involved. Its hard enough predicting a team to cover a point spread, but now you want someone to accurately predict the amount of targets, yards, and TDs of your roster, and possibly manage it. You are asking for a time machine or a crystal ball. Those guys who win the $1,000,000 playing FF in Las Vegas would probably NEVER win again. Everyone has a 1/10, 1/12 etc chance at winning but those arent good odds. FF is a hobby and is the worst bet you could make. An entry fee of $100 in a winner takes all is a sucker bet if every coach is evenly knowledgeable on FF.

I play 6-8 leagues every year and double my money every year.Luck tends to be an excuse for people who just aren't that good. Kind of like the guys I play poker with

Then you are playing against people that dont really care and just doing it because everyone else is. FF is alot more than 50% luck. There really isnt an advantage. Everyone has the same information so it comes down to luck. If we went in a head to head FF competition enlighten me how you would have such a big advantage. Just me and you picking 9 players from the entire pool to start week 1. 1QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs , 1 TE, 1PK, 1DEFWe only playing week 1. You gonna tell me that if I win that I wasnt lucky? Now multiply that by 10,12, 14 or whatever and then multiplied by 16 weeks. Yea luck is just an excuse.Unless you have a crystal ball or playing against people that dont even watch football, you cant possibly win year in and year out. You must be playing against guys that are reaching in the first round, or picking DEF in the 3rd. Definitely not re-draft. How do you know the 3rd WR of (insert team name) blows up for 110 and 3 TDs? You dont and never will.

 

[NeverEnough]

I like the idea (I would not pay someone), but a huge part of FF is luck.

 

[Dylan158]

I don't think anyone could claim they make bank year after year playing FF unless they are playing with mental midgets. FF has too much luck involved. Its hard enough predicting a team to cover a point spread, but now you want someone to accurately predict the amount of targets, yards, and TDs of your roster, and possibly manage it. You are asking for a time machine or a crystal ball. Those guys who win the $1,000,000 playing FF in Las Vegas would probably NEVER win again. Everyone has a 1/10, 1/12 etc chance at winning but those arent good odds. FF is a hobby and is the worst bet you could make. An entry fee of $100 in a winner takes all is a sucker bet if every coach is evenly knowledgeable on FF.

I play 6-8 leagues every year and double my money every year.Luck tends to be an excuse for people who just aren't that good. Kind of like the guys I play poker with

Then you are playing against people that dont really care and just doing it because everyone else is. FF is alot more than 50% luck. There really isnt an advantage. Everyone has the same information so it comes down to luck. If we went in a head to head FF competition enlighten me how you would have such a big advantage. Just me and you picking 9 players from the entire pool to start week 1. 1QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs , 1 TE, 1PK, 1DEFWe only playing week 1. You gonna tell me that if I win that I wasnt lucky? Now multiply that by 10,12, 14 or whatever and then multiplied by 16 weeks. Yea luck is just an excuse.Unless you have a crystal ball or playing against people that dont even watch football, you cant possibly win year in and year out. You must be playing against guys that are reaching in the first round, or picking DEF in the 3rd. Definitely not re-draft. How do you know the 3rd WR of (insert team name) blows up for 110 and 3 TDs? You dont and never will.

FF is a skill game imo, over the long run more skillfull players will win. Off course everyone has the same information(wich is debatable since some people just follow more news then others), that's the same as in poker everyone knows what they are holding and see the cards on the table. It's not the information but it's what you do with it, as it is in most games. Only the variance is soooo enormous that to find your true roi you have to play in an insane amount of leagues and the most skillfull player will not always come out a winner. Off course it's more then 50% luck maybe it's closer to 90% luck or hell even 99,9% luck but as long as there's skill involved the more skillfull players will win more over the long run then others.

 

[Couch Potato]

Funny I should see this thread tonight...About 2 hours ago my buddy from Brasil asks if I can help him with his draft. I say "Sure", excited to answer his questions about players and stratagies.I go to his laptop and tell him to log into his league. He looks up at me quizzically and says "No, I need help with this. I don't understand how to log-in. This means to see my team, right?"2 hours later and I've set up his account, linked it to his Facebook page, explained to him what "drafting" actually is, how players are picked and how points are scored.After all this he says to me "Now you can show me who to pick?"I came here, printed up a Cheat Sheet, gave it to him and said "Read this. I gotta run."In hindsight - they'd have to pay me A LOT to do this for total strangers.

Your clueless friend will probably win his league.

 

[Couch Potato]

I play 6-8 leagues every year and double my money every year.

I went to Vegas in a $50,000 car and came back on a $100,000 bus. Does that count?

 

[Binky The Doormat]

if anyone could convincingly demonstrate that they are +EV playing fantasy sports, you'd be able to pitch that to people with capital and start your own business getting staked into big money leagues.

Since AIU is using poker references I'm going to continue the analogy. In this analogy, you would have to be so good at fantasy football that you'd have to be able to document that you can regularly win money in big prize leagues. And like AIU points out, that's tough to do. Even the best fantasy football players would have a tough time making a living playing high stake prize leagues. Again, kind of like poker. There are millions that play poker for money (at least there were before Black Friday). But only a handful are so good that they can make a successful living.1) Most people that are aware of high stake leagues are fantasy football enthusiasts. The thrill/fun of the game is probably a much higher motive than profit. Why would they give away one of the most enjoyable parts of the experience?2) How do you document that you're such a star that you can get other people to give you money to draft for them? Most people, especially playing at a high level, are already confident of their abilities. For example, most people here have great respect for Joe Bryant and David Dodds. I certainly do. However, I doubt if anyone here would be intimidated if they were in a league with them. If anything, they'd enjoy the challenge of getting to compete against them. It's different from a good poker player sitting down at a table and suddenly seeing Phil Ivey take a seat.3) It's hard enough to win money in a high stakes league because theoretically you're already facing people good enough at Fantasy Football that they're willing to invest high stakes. You're not going to find Jill the Secretary doing it just because she thinks it would be a hoot to go up against the fellas. Now you have to win extra money to cover the expenses. 4) Nobody in poker would pay someone to play for them. They may stake a player that think is a good investment. But every player dreams of going on the 8-day card rush and winning the World Series, not having it won for them.What you see in poker are training sites. Instead of paying Daniel Negranu to play for you, you join Negranu's site and he helps you become a better player.Fantasy Football training sites aren't really viable because there is so much good information and strategy available for free.

Giant whiff. I think the concept is that there are lots of people out there that ARE NOT interested in whatever the "game" is. They are simply looking for a sizable advantage. If I could give someone money and have a huge advantage in winning - I would care less. The challenge - who the hell could possibly give you the kind of advantage you could really bank on?

Really? Care to back that up with any kind of numbers or analysis?

Well now, you are really scaring me. Back it up with what analysis? You mean the part where:a.) people would like to make money by investing in something in which they do not take an active part (see investing at wikipedia - good start for you)Or the part where:b.) there is no known long term system to guarantee returns on "games" of risk? Do you just have a couple of comebacks and nothing else fit here?

 

[saintsfan1977]

FF is a skill game imo, over the long run more skillfull players will win. Off course everyone has the same information(wich is debatable since some people just follow more news then others), that's the same as in poker everyone knows what they are holding and see the cards on the table. It's not the information but it's what you do with it, as it is in most games. Only the variance is soooo enormous that to find your true roi you have to play in an insane amount of leagues and the most skillfull player will not always come out a winner. Off course it's more then 50% luck maybe it's closer to 90% luck or hell even 99,9% luck but as long as there's skill involved the more skillfull players will win more over the long run then others.

The skill is drafting the right guys better than everyone else. If you put the time and research along with luck you will definitely make the playoffs. The thing is I could have a team that completely dominates the regular season because i drafted well and got lucky with matchups, but the first week in the playoffs my team decides to snore. You wont sit your studs so your team is totally dependent on luck. Sure ADP will outperform Pierre Thomas, but once we get to the playoffs PT could go for 60 rush,15 rec and 2 TDs while ADP gets 70 rushing. FF is not a money making oppurtunity. Its a past time or a hobby just for fun with hopes of winning it all.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I get paid money for my projections, guys win their leagues with them usually give me something after.

 

[BigA]

I started a site earlier this year based on this subject.

www.draftmyfantasyteam.com

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I started a site earlier this year based on this subject.

www.draftmyfantasyteam.com

Honestly, this seems like a terrible business model. You're not even making minimum wage.

 

[BigA]

I started a site earlier this year based on this subject.

www.draftmyfantasyteam.com

Honestly, this seems like a terrible business model. You're not even making minimum wage.

I do take it seriously but doing it for fun. Whatever happens happens.

 

[Shane Falco]

I play 6-8 leagues every year and double my money every year.

I went to Vegas in a $50,000 car and came back on a $100,000 bus. Does that count?

HeIIs yeah especially if you were the driver

 

[Shane Falco]

Then you are playing against people that dont really care and just doing it because everyone else is. FF is alot more than 50% luck. There really isnt an advantage. Everyone has the same information so it comes down to luck. If we went in a head to head FF competition enlighten me how you would have such a big advantage. Just me and you picking 9 players from the entire pool to start week 1.

1QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs , 1 TE, 1PK, 1DEF

We only playing week 1. You gonna tell me that if I win that I wasnt lucky? Now multiply that by 10,12, 14 or whatever and then multiplied by 16 weeks. Yea luck is just an excuse.

Unless you have a crystal ball or playing against people that dont even watch football, you cant possibly win year in and year out. You must be playing against guys that are reaching in the first round, or picking DEF in the 3rd. Definitely not re-draft. How do you know the 3rd WR of (insert team name) blows up for 110 and 3 TDs? You dont and never will.

How much do you want to play for?

 

[saintsfan1977]

FF is a skill game imo, over the long run more skillfull players will win. Off course everyone has the same information(wich is debatable since some people just follow more news then others), that's the same as in poker everyone knows what they are holding and see the cards on the table. It's not the information but it's what you do with it, as it is in most games. Only the variance is soooo enormous that to find your true roi you have to play in an insane amount of leagues and the most skillfull player will not always come out a winner. Off course it's more then 50% luck maybe it's closer to 90% luck or hell even 99,9% luck but as long as there's skill involved the more skillfull players will win more over the long run then others.

The skill is drafting the right guys better than everyone else. If you put the time and research along with luck you will definitely make the playoffs. The thing is I could have a team that completely dominates the regular season because i drafted well and got lucky with matchups, but the first week in the playoffs my team decides to snore. You wont sit your studs so your team is totally dependent on luck. Sure ADP will outperform Pierre Thomas, but once we get to the playoffs PT could go for 60 rush,15 rec and 2 TDs while ADP gets 70 rushing. FF is not a money making oppurtunity. Its a past time or a hobby just for fun with hopes of winning it all.

This is flat out wrong. There are consistent winners in high stakes fantasy sports. I'm sorry if your psyche can't handle that, that you NEED it to be luck, but it's the truth. There's people out there winning money consistently.

Flat out wrong? Prove it then. I want you to show me the skill involved. I saw Poker being compared and that isnt even the same ball park. There are mathematical odds using cards along with bluffing and some luck involved but there is more skill in cards than FF.Here is an example:2 teams playing head to head. Team A loses a RB due to injury the week before. The backup RB is not availabe so he has to pick out of a crop of 3rd down Jason Snelling/Justin Forsett RBBC types. Team B still has his full strength team going. Team A's 3rd down RBBC just happens to break a long TD and gets a goal line TD while Team B's 2 running backs combined fail miserably and lose the game by 5 points. No luck involved there. Team B just used his finely tuned skill to correctly pick the backup running back that would blow up for him, never mind the starter on someone elses team. This happens every week. On paper one team looks dominant cant lose playing against the absolute worst team and expects to blow them out. Game over and the expected winner is doing a face palm. Why dont you consistently go undefeated every year since its not luck? Why is there no guy with his face plastered all over the web as the best FF player in the world year in and year out? You are counting on grabbing guys that will perform at a high level more often than others. You could have a team full of studs but when you need them to win and they dont perform you lose. Where is the skill at then? Its luck and you can take that to the bank. I have seen guys who drafted the absolute worst roster you could imagine on paper and win the championship. PURE LUCK. Ask those high stake FF players how much luck is involved, I bet they same the same thing.

 

[saintsfan1977]

How much do you want to play for?

We dont need to wager. My suggestion was hypothetical but we could take turns grabbing each a QB, 2RBS,3WRS, 1TE, 1PK, and 1DEF/ST. Come up with a point system. The thing is it would be hard to compare since its only 1vs1. Im not saying there is NO skill. Im saying that there is just ALOT more luck involved. See 1 on 1 doesnt show the backup players taken in a 12 man team that blow up and to help a poor team beat a good team. There is no way to account for it.Team ARodgersAPCJA.JohnsonL.FitzgeraldM.WallaceA.GatesN.keadingNYJVSTeam BVickA.FosterR.RiceC.JohnsonR.WhiteV.JacksonD.ClarkM.CrosbyPITTell me which team will win?

 

[FantasyTrader]

FF is a skill game imo, over the long run more skillfull players will win. Off course everyone has the same information(wich is debatable since some people just follow more news then others), that's the same as in poker everyone knows what they are holding and see the cards on the table. It's not the information but it's what you do with it, as it is in most games. Only the variance is soooo enormous that to find your true roi you have to play in an insane amount of leagues and the most skillfull player will not always come out a winner. Off course it's more then 50% luck maybe it's closer to 90% luck or hell even 99,9% luck but as long as there's skill involved the more skillfull players will win more over the long run then others.

The skill is drafting the right guys better than everyone else. If you put the time and research along with luck you will definitely make the playoffs. The thing is I could have a team that completely dominates the regular season because i drafted well and got lucky with matchups, but the first week in the playoffs my team decides to snore. You wont sit your studs so your team is totally dependent on luck. Sure ADP will outperform Pierre Thomas, but once we get to the playoffs PT could go for 60 rush,15 rec and 2 TDs while ADP gets 70 rushing. FF is not a money making oppurtunity. Its a past time or a hobby just for fun with hopes of winning it all.

This is flat out wrong. There are consistent winners in high stakes fantasy sports. I'm sorry if your psyche can't handle that, that you NEED it to be luck, but it's the truth. There's people out there winning money consistently.

Flat out wrong? Prove it then. I want you to show me the skill involved. I saw Poker being compared and that isnt even the same ball park. There are mathematical odds using cards along with bluffing and some luck involved but there is more skill in cards than FF.Here is an example:2 teams playing head to head. Team A loses a RB due to injury the week before. The backup RB is not availabe so he has to pick out of a crop of 3rd down Jason Snelling/Justin Forsett RBBC types. Team B still has his full strength team going. Team A's 3rd down RBBC just happens to break a long TD and gets a goal line TD while Team B's 2 running backs combined fail miserably and lose the game by 5 points. No luck involved there. Team B just used his finely tuned skill to correctly pick the backup running back that would blow up for him, never mind the starter on someone elses team. This happens every week. On paper one team looks dominant cant lose playing against the absolute worst team and expects to blow them out. Game over and the expected winner is doing a face palm. Why dont you consistently go undefeated every year since its not luck? Why is there no guy with his face plastered all over the web as the best FF player in the world year in and year out? You are counting on grabbing guys that will perform at a high level more often than others. You could have a team full of studs but when you need them to win and they dont perform you lose. Where is the skill at then? Its luck and you can take that to the bank. I have seen guys who drafted the absolute worst roster you could imagine on paper and win the championship. PURE LUCK. Ask those high stake FF players how much luck is involved, I bet they same the same thing.

See, now you're talking about variance. That isn't luck. If a poker player has a documented +EV 3.5 BB for over 300,000 hands of poker, that's generally their expected win rate. But over 1,000 hands, ANYTHING can happen. Because the variance is so large they can be +46 BB or -53 BB. That doesn't change their overall EV of 3.5 BB per 1,000. Same with FF. You're talking about seeing teams draft dog crap and win leagues. Variance. But show me that same player win $ by playing in 8, 10, 12 leagues drafting that way or over multiple years. Also the reverse is true, you can be the best fantasy player in the world and finish dead last in a league. ONE league. Variance. But put the same owner in multiple leagues over multiple years - at some point his return will normalize to his EV once he reaches a large enough sample size. As you increase the number of leagues and number of years played, luck decreases proportionately until it's non-existant.

 

[saintsfan1977]

FF is a skill game imo, over the long run more skillfull players will win. Off course everyone has the same information(wich is debatable since some people just follow more news then others), that's the same as in poker everyone knows what they are holding and see the cards on the table. It's not the information but it's what you do with it, as it is in most games. Only the variance is soooo enormous that to find your true roi you have to play in an insane amount of leagues and the most skillfull player will not always come out a winner. Off course it's more then 50% luck maybe it's closer to 90% luck or hell even 99,9% luck but as long as there's skill involved the more skillfull players will win more over the long run then others.

The skill is drafting the right guys better than everyone else. If you put the time and research along with luck you will definitely make the playoffs. The thing is I could have a team that completely dominates the regular season because i drafted well and got lucky with matchups, but the first week in the playoffs my team decides to snore. You wont sit your studs so your team is totally dependent on luck. Sure ADP will outperform Pierre Thomas, but once we get to the playoffs PT could go for 60 rush,15 rec and 2 TDs while ADP gets 70 rushing. FF is not a money making oppurtunity. Its a past time or a hobby just for fun with hopes of winning it all.

This is flat out wrong. There are consistent winners in high stakes fantasy sports. I'm sorry if your psyche can't handle that, that you NEED it to be luck, but it's the truth. There's people out there winning money consistently.

Flat out wrong? Prove it then. I want you to show me the skill involved. I saw Poker being compared and that isnt even the same ball park. There are mathematical odds using cards along with bluffing and some luck involved but there is more skill in cards than FF.Here is an example:2 teams playing head to head. Team A loses a RB due to injury the week before. The backup RB is not availabe so he has to pick out of a crop of 3rd down Jason Snelling/Justin Forsett RBBC types. Team B still has his full strength team going. Team A's 3rd down RBBC just happens to break a long TD and gets a goal line TD while Team B's 2 running backs combined fail miserably and lose the game by 5 points. No luck involved there. Team B just used his finely tuned skill to correctly pick the backup running back that would blow up for him, never mind the starter on someone elses team. This happens every week. On paper one team looks dominant cant lose playing against the absolute worst team and expects to blow them out. Game over and the expected winner is doing a face palm. Why dont you consistently go undefeated every year since its not luck? Why is there no guy with his face plastered all over the web as the best FF player in the world year in and year out? You are counting on grabbing guys that will perform at a high level more often than others. You could have a team full of studs but when you need them to win and they dont perform you lose. Where is the skill at then? Its luck and you can take that to the bank. I have seen guys who drafted the absolute worst roster you could imagine on paper and win the championship. PURE LUCK. Ask those high stake FF players how much luck is involved, I bet they same the same thing.

See, now you're talking about variance. That isn't luck. If a poker player has a documented +EV 3.5 BB for over 300,000 hands of poker, that's generally their expected win rate. But over 1,000 hands, ANYTHING can happen. Because the variance is so large they can be +46 BB or -53 BB. That doesn't change their overall EV of 3.5 BB per 1,000. Same with FF. You're talking about seeing teams draft dog crap and win leagues. Variance. But show me that same player win $ by playing in 8, 10, 12 leagues drafting that way or over multiple years. Also the reverse is true, you can be the best fantasy player in the world and finish dead last in a league. ONE league. Variance. But put the same owner in multiple leagues over multiple years - at some point his return will normalize to his EV once he reaches a large enough sample size. As you increase the number of leagues and number of years played, luck decreases proportionately until it's non-existant.

FF is not all about variance. You are pitting players against each other in hope they outscore the other opponent for that week. If you win great but take the same winning team and pit it against another team and you lose that same week. The FF schedule comes into play. It really is a crapshoot about who and when you play. In the NFL its a team game so if they lose its not always because they were a bad team. They might not have been motivated enough. There is alot of luck involved. You dont get to pick out the entire player pool. You are given a choice of when to pick.I beat the guy who had A.Rodgers last year when he went down with a concussion vs the Lions. I whould have lost that game if it wasn't for Rodgers going down.

 

[FantasyTrader]

FF is a skill game imo, over the long run more skillfull players will win. Off course everyone has the same information(wich is debatable since some people just follow more news then others), that's the same as in poker everyone knows what they are holding and see the cards on the table. It's not the information but it's what you do with it, as it is in most games. Only the variance is soooo enormous that to find your true roi you have to play in an insane amount of leagues and the most skillfull player will not always come out a winner. Off course it's more then 50% luck maybe it's closer to 90% luck or hell even 99,9% luck but as long as there's skill involved the more skillfull players will win more over the long run then others.

The skill is drafting the right guys better than everyone else. If you put the time and research along with luck you will definitely make the playoffs. The thing is I could have a team that completely dominates the regular season because i drafted well and got lucky with matchups, but the first week in the playoffs my team decides to snore. You wont sit your studs so your team is totally dependent on luck. Sure ADP will outperform Pierre Thomas, but once we get to the playoffs PT could go for 60 rush,15 rec and 2 TDs while ADP gets 70 rushing. FF is not a money making oppurtunity. Its a past time or a hobby just for fun with hopes of winning it all.

This is flat out wrong. There are consistent winners in high stakes fantasy sports. I'm sorry if your psyche can't handle that, that you NEED it to be luck, but it's the truth. There's people out there winning money consistently.

Flat out wrong? Prove it then. I want you to show me the skill involved. I saw Poker being compared and that isnt even the same ball park. There are mathematical odds using cards along with bluffing and some luck involved but there is more skill in cards than FF.Here is an example:2 teams playing head to head. Team A loses a RB due to injury the week before. The backup RB is not availabe so he has to pick out of a crop of 3rd down Jason Snelling/Justin Forsett RBBC types. Team B still has his full strength team going. Team A's 3rd down RBBC just happens to break a long TD and gets a goal line TD while Team B's 2 running backs combined fail miserably and lose the game by 5 points. No luck involved there. Team B just used his finely tuned skill to correctly pick the backup running back that would blow up for him, never mind the starter on someone elses team. This happens every week. On paper one team looks dominant cant lose playing against the absolute worst team and expects to blow them out. Game over and the expected winner is doing a face palm. Why dont you consistently go undefeated every year since its not luck? Why is there no guy with his face plastered all over the web as the best FF player in the world year in and year out? You are counting on grabbing guys that will perform at a high level more often than others. You could have a team full of studs but when you need them to win and they dont perform you lose. Where is the skill at then? Its luck and you can take that to the bank. I have seen guys who drafted the absolute worst roster you could imagine on paper and win the championship. PURE LUCK. Ask those high stake FF players how much luck is involved, I bet they same the same thing.

See, now you're talking about variance. That isn't luck. If a poker player has a documented +EV 3.5 BB for over 300,000 hands of poker, that's generally their expected win rate. But over 1,000 hands, ANYTHING can happen. Because the variance is so large they can be +46 BB or -53 BB. That doesn't change their overall EV of 3.5 BB per 1,000. Same with FF. You're talking about seeing teams draft dog crap and win leagues. Variance. But show me that same player win $ by playing in 8, 10, 12 leagues drafting that way or over multiple years. Also the reverse is true, you can be the best fantasy player in the world and finish dead last in a league. ONE league. Variance. But put the same owner in multiple leagues over multiple years - at some point his return will normalize to his EV once he reaches a large enough sample size. As you increase the number of leagues and number of years played, luck decreases proportionately until it's non-existant.

FF is not all about variance. You are pitting players against each other in hope they outscore the other opponent for that week. If you win great but take the same winning team and pit it against another team and you lose that same week. The FF schedule comes into play. It really is a crapshoot about who and when you play. In the NFL its a team game so if they lose its not always because they were a bad team. They might not have been motivated enough. There is alot of luck involved. You dont get to pick out the entire player pool. You are given a choice of when to pick.I beat the guy who had A.Rodgers last year when he went down with a concussion vs the Lions. I whould have lost that game if it wasn't for Rodgers going down.

Again you're talking about individual unlucky events which occured. That's...variance. In the short term, I TOTALLY agree with you, FF is very much about luck. Just like any game that blends skill with elements of chance. At this point though, I kinda feel like we're spinning our wheels. You're welcome to think FF is luck over the long term and I'm welcome to think it's skill over the long term.

 

[Bri]

In my experience, most people don't want others to know you drafted for them. They don't necessarily want to lie, but just draft quietly and leave the chat hoping no one noticed. Some are proud FF folks that just don't have the time due to some family obligation and they don't want to throw the whole season away either.