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Project or Die - Austin Jackson, OF (1 Viewer)

Notorious T.R.E.

Showdown!™ Administrator
Austin Jackson

Birthdate: 2/1/1987 Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6-1/185 Position: OF

In 2010, rookie Austin Jackson had an excellent year, batting 293/345/400. He scored over 100 runs and stole 27 bases. Some shied away from him for 2011 because the incredible .396 BABIP and low-ish walk (7%) and high K rates (25.2%). In 2011, Jackson did experience a 56 point drop in BABIP and while his walk rate increased to 8.4%, his K rate also increased to a Chris Davis-like 27.1%.

All of that changed again in 2012, when Jackson hit 300/377/479 and had great improvements in both walk (10.9%) and K (21.7%) rates. His BABIP rose again to .371. Comparing 2010 to 2012, Jackson swings at 4.6% less pitches that he sees and 4.6% less pitches outside of the zone. His groundball rates have also decreased and his fly ball rates have increased. His fastball runs above average (wFB) is of particular not as it has gone from 5.5 to -2.3 to 26.5 in his three years. He basically took poops on people's fastballs last year. Can he do it again in 2013?

One other thing of note is he only stole 12 bases. While all other numbers have trended up, this has gone down. Will the red light remain on with the big boys behind him in the lineup?

What do you say? Project or die.

AVG, OBP, HR, R, RBI, SB

 
They've been working with him to steal more bases, expect at least 20. .282/.348/17/62/23ETA: 96 runs

 
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Bill James projects a nearly identical year in terms of walk/k rates and babip, which results in a 2013 similar to 2012:293 AVG363 OBP12 HR61 RBI100 R17 SBRotowire Projects:28335313 HR60 RBI107 R19 SB

After totaling 49 steals in his first two seasons, Jackson managed just 12 steals last year. The Tigers have long been near the bottom of the league in steals under manager Jim Leyland, but the team brought in base-running consultant Jeff Cox to make improvements on the base paths
I expect a little babip regression and maybe a bit of a drop in that walk rate (9%?). I do think he'll keep that pop with the increased fly ball rate.27934816 HR58 RBI94 R26 SB
 
:homer: 110 R's18 HR's70 RBI's25 SB's.305 AVE.380 OBPAdding Torii Hunter to this team is the best thing that could have happened for AJax imo.

 

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