Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Found this interesting.
Link
Projected Wins Based Upon Las Vegas for Every NFL Team
by RJ_Bell on 09/08/2009 9:18 PM
Column 1: Team Name
Column 2: Number of times favored
Column 3: Number of times dog
Column 4: Number of times pick'em
Column 5: Chance of team winning each game summed for all 16 games, equaling expected number of games won.
Pats 15 1 0 11.2
Steelers 16 0 0 11
Chargers 12 4 0 10.8
Colts 13 3 0 10.4
Eagles 11 5 0 9.8
Vikings 11 5 0 9.6
Ravens 10 5 1 9.5
Titans 13 3 0 9.4
Giants 12 4 0 9.4
Saints 11 5 0 9.3
Cards 11 3 2 9.2
Cowboys 11 4 1 9.2
Panthers 10 6 0 9
Packers 10 5 1 9
Bears 9 5 2 8.2
Falcons 9 6 1 8.2
Texans 6 9 1 7.7
Redskins 6 9 1 7.5
Jaguars 5 8 3 7.5
Dolphins 5 11 0 7.4
49ers 4 10 2 7.3
Bill 6 9 1 6.6
Jets 4 11 1 6.6
Seahawks 4 11 1 6.5
Bengals 3 12 1 6.2
Bucs 2 13 1 6.1
Raiders 3 12 1 6
Browns 2 13 1 5.7
Broncos 4 12 0 5.6
Chiefs 3 12 1 5.6
Rams 0 16 0 4.5
Lions 2 14 0 4.4
Teams favored the most times this season according to Las Vegas?
Four teams are favored 13 or more times:
Steelers: 16 times
Patriots: 15 times
Colts: 13 times
Titans: 13 times
Yes, the Steelers are favored in every game this year! The Patriots only time as an underdog is on the road vs. the Colts.
Most times as underdog? Four teams are dogs 13 or more times:
Rams: 16 times
Lions: 14 times
Browns: 13 times
Bucs: 13 times
Yes, the Rams are underdogs in every game this year! Their best chance at a win is at home as a slim 1-point dog vs. the Seahawks.
Other notable record projections based upon number of games favored:
Cards: 11-3-2
Cowboys: 11-4-1
Eagles: 11-5
Vikings: 11-5
Saints: 11-5
Dolphins: 5-11
Jets: 4-11-1
Now, consider that all favorites (and dogs) are not equal. A team favored by 10 has a much better chance of winning the game than a team favored by 3. So we analyzed further, adding up each team's exact chance of winning each of their 16 games, with the sum telling us exactly how many wins can be expected for each team.
Four teams are expected to win more than 10 games:
Patriots: 11.2
Steelers: 11
Chargers: 10.8
Colts: 10.4
Five teams are expected to win less than 6 games:
Lions: 4.4
Rams: 4.5
Chiefs: 5.6
Broncos: 5.6
Browns: 5.7
Which means 23 teams are right in the middle, projected to win between 6 and 10 games. To get a better understanding of how bad the Lions are projected to be, consider that they are expected to be outscored by 125 points combined on the season, an average of over a touchdown per game. Detroit is a double digit underdog in 5 games. The Eagles are a double digit favorite in 5 games.
Link
Projected Wins Based Upon Las Vegas for Every NFL Team
by RJ_Bell on 09/08/2009 9:18 PM
Column 1: Team Name
Column 2: Number of times favored
Column 3: Number of times dog
Column 4: Number of times pick'em
Column 5: Chance of team winning each game summed for all 16 games, equaling expected number of games won.
Pats 15 1 0 11.2
Steelers 16 0 0 11
Chargers 12 4 0 10.8
Colts 13 3 0 10.4
Eagles 11 5 0 9.8
Vikings 11 5 0 9.6
Ravens 10 5 1 9.5
Titans 13 3 0 9.4
Giants 12 4 0 9.4
Saints 11 5 0 9.3
Cards 11 3 2 9.2
Cowboys 11 4 1 9.2
Panthers 10 6 0 9
Packers 10 5 1 9
Bears 9 5 2 8.2
Falcons 9 6 1 8.2
Texans 6 9 1 7.7
Redskins 6 9 1 7.5
Jaguars 5 8 3 7.5
Dolphins 5 11 0 7.4
49ers 4 10 2 7.3
Bill 6 9 1 6.6
Jets 4 11 1 6.6
Seahawks 4 11 1 6.5
Bengals 3 12 1 6.2
Bucs 2 13 1 6.1
Raiders 3 12 1 6
Browns 2 13 1 5.7
Broncos 4 12 0 5.6
Chiefs 3 12 1 5.6
Rams 0 16 0 4.5
Lions 2 14 0 4.4
Teams favored the most times this season according to Las Vegas?
Four teams are favored 13 or more times:
Steelers: 16 times
Patriots: 15 times
Colts: 13 times
Titans: 13 times
Yes, the Steelers are favored in every game this year! The Patriots only time as an underdog is on the road vs. the Colts.
Most times as underdog? Four teams are dogs 13 or more times:
Rams: 16 times
Lions: 14 times
Browns: 13 times
Bucs: 13 times
Yes, the Rams are underdogs in every game this year! Their best chance at a win is at home as a slim 1-point dog vs. the Seahawks.
Other notable record projections based upon number of games favored:
Cards: 11-3-2
Cowboys: 11-4-1
Eagles: 11-5
Vikings: 11-5
Saints: 11-5
Dolphins: 5-11
Jets: 4-11-1
Now, consider that all favorites (and dogs) are not equal. A team favored by 10 has a much better chance of winning the game than a team favored by 3. So we analyzed further, adding up each team's exact chance of winning each of their 16 games, with the sum telling us exactly how many wins can be expected for each team.
Four teams are expected to win more than 10 games:
Patriots: 11.2
Steelers: 11
Chargers: 10.8
Colts: 10.4
Five teams are expected to win less than 6 games:
Lions: 4.4
Rams: 4.5
Chiefs: 5.6
Broncos: 5.6
Browns: 5.7
Which means 23 teams are right in the middle, projected to win between 6 and 10 games. To get a better understanding of how bad the Lions are projected to be, consider that they are expected to be outscored by 125 points combined on the season, an average of over a touchdown per game. Detroit is a double digit underdog in 5 games. The Eagles are a double digit favorite in 5 games.
