Projecting QB1 - QB12 totals (1 Viewer)

[joffer]

The QB totals for the last years have really been all over the place. Below is 2001 - 2005

370 362 329 433 318

350 361 322 418 310

327 330 306 350 294

326 326 306 329 281

322 318 296 320 277

316 310 290 311 274

311 309 288 308 271

310 304 281 302 270

288 304 277 295 265

284 295 277 285 265

258 282 273 279 261

257 266 269 268 260

That's quite a spike in 2004. My question is this: are there any indicators that would point to QB #s going up or down, year to year, across the board like that?

last year was the lowest #s in a while

edit: this is 4 pts for passing TD, 1 pt per 20 yds passing, -1 for INT

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Would you care to add 2001 & 2002 on there real quick?

 

[Wade]

I think the 2004 spike in QB performance may have been the result of the instruction to NFL officials to emphasize the pass interference rule.

Link

 

[joffer]

Would you care to add 2001 & 2002 on there real quick?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

done

 

[joffer]

I think the 2004 spike in QB performance may have been the result of the instruction to NFL officials to emphasize the pass interference rule. 

Link

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

true, but 2005 was the lowest of the last 5 years.

 

[Z-Dog]

Perhaps the biggest problem with these numbers is that they say nothing about injuries. I'd say that the biggest difference between 2005 and 2004 was that in 2004 you had three QBs with historic seasons - Manning, Culpepper, and McNabb. In 2005, Culepper and McNabb both got hurt, and Manning returned to the part of the stratosphere we still consider earth.

It would be very interesting to see the ppgs for the last 5 years...

 

[dgreen]

2001-2005 Average:

362.4

352.0

321.6

313.6

306.4

299.8

296.4

293.4

284.8

280.8

270.4

263.8

 

[(HULK)]

Averages:

QB1- 362.4

QB2- 352.2

QB3- 321.4

QB4- 313.6

QB5- 306.6

QB6- 300.2

QB7- 297.4

QB8- 293.4

QB9- 285.8

QB10- 281.2

QB11- 270.6

QB12- 264

ETA- too slow

 

[(HULK)]

2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	Average	Stan Dev370	362	329	433	318	362.4	45.08103814350	361	322	418	310	352.2	42.14498784327	330	306	350	294	321.4	21.85863674326	326	306	329	281	313.6	20.40343108322	318	296	320	277	306.6	19.59081417316	310	290	311	274	300.2	17.69745744311	309	288	308	271	297.4	17.44419674310	304	281	302	270	293.4	17.052859288	304	277	295	265	285.8	15.25450753284	295	277	285	265	281.2	11.09954954258	282	273	279	261	270.6	10.69111781257	266	269	268	260	264	5.244044241

 

[joffer]

Perhaps the biggest problem with these numbers is that they say nothing about injuries. I'd say that the biggest difference between 2005 and 2004 was that in 2004 you had three QBs with historic seasons - Manning, Culpepper, and McNabb. In 2005, Culepper and McNabb both got hurt, and Manning returned to the part of the stratosphere we still consider earth.

It would be very interesting to see the ppgs for the last 5 years...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

injuries are a factor, but i think they tend to average out. Culpepper was on his way to a down year before he got hurt. and this isn't just one or two guys, the whole top 12 dipped significantly last year, i'm just wondering if there's any reason for it.

 

[dgreen]

Averages:

QB1-  362.4

QB2-  352.2

QB3-  321.4

QB4-  313.6

QB5-  306.6

QB6-  300.2

QB7-  297.4

QB8-  293.4

QB9-  285.8

QB10- 281.2

QB11- 270.6

QB12- 264

ETA- too slow

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For some reason, mine are a little different.

 

[joffer]

Averages:

QB1-  362.4

QB2-  352.2

QB3-  321.4

QB4-  313.6

QB5-  306.6

QB6-  300.2

QB7-  297.4

QB8-  293.4

QB9-  285.8

QB10- 281.2

QB11- 270.6

QB12- 264

ETA- too slow

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For some reason, mine are a little different.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

could be as simple as subtracting for fumbles or not the main reason this interests me is that if you do a post 2005 season VBD calculation of X-values in a 12-team, 1/2/3/1/1, ppr format, QB1 comes in at #39 . That doesn't even warrant a selection in the first three rounds.

Obviously it's not that simple, but it's still interesting.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think from the numbers posted, we can all see what's going on here.

 

[joffer]

I think from the numbers posted, we can all see what's going on here.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

indeed, please share with the class