Projection Pet Peeves (1 Viewer)

[Mikel J. Anderson]

what are your biggest pet peeves when people try to project a player's season?

mine is: "now there is tape on X player so X player cannot perform as well"

I don't think this is relevant to the slightest degree, there is 'tape' for every player who has played more than 1 game (usually argument is after one full season) but if this argument were valid there would be NO great players, or players that could put up fantastic NFL seasons let alone fantasy football seasons, EVER. especially year in and year out. some players are either just that good, or have situations that let them be that good. not one NFL player would agree that the reason they didn't make it was because there was tape on them.

ALSO...which arguments are most valid? OLINE additions, dome situations for kickers, added receiving core for QB, etc....

edited for spelling/grammar. I'm THAT guy.

 

[Hagger]

Biggest pet peeve? A #1 receiver has a poor receiver opposite him, the "experts" say it will allow defenses to double team him. The same receiver has a good receiver opposite him, the "experts" say it will lead to less targets because "there's only so many balls to go around."

 

[ghostguy123]

When people say something like "player X "CAN" be a top 5 guy"..........................well, so can 50 other guys.

 

[cstu]

When people say something like "player X "CAN" be a top 5 guy"..........................well, so can 50 other guys.

This can be annoying but it's good to separate the guys with that potential from the guys that don't. For example, take two guys with almost identical redraft ADP - Chris Johnson and Alfred Morris. Morris has almost zero chance IMO of being a top 5 guy in PPR while it's very conceivable that Johnson could.

 

[ghostguy123]

When people say something like "player X "CAN" be a top 5 guy"..........................well, so can 50 other guys.

This can be annoying but it's good to separate the guys with that potential from the guys that don't. For example, take two guys with almost identical redraft ADP - Chris Johnson and Alfred Morris. Morris has almost zero chance IMO of being a top 5 guy in PPR while it's very conceivable that Johnson could.

Not to get off topic, but as a rookie with almost no catches, Morris was 16 points away from being top 5. Zero chance?? You might have just opened up another pet peeve, lol. Saying someone "can't" do something that that pretty much just did. I mean, you are saying "a rookie can't improve".

I mean, I too am of the belief that Morris probably just had his career year.....................but saying he "can't" improve is a bit naive.

You do realize one catch per game would pretty much double his receptions, right? If they involve him even a LITTLE in the passing game, which I can easily see, it would be a big improvement on that. Now will he rush for 1600 again with double digit TDs?? I am a little skeptical.

 

[zadok]

When the current year's projections are 99% the same as last year's results.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

When the current year's projections are 99% the same as last year's results.

This is my #1. And most sites do it routinely.

Another of mine is when sites keep pimping their favorites to break out year after year (I.e. Stewart) despite repeated failures.

 

[cstu]

When people say something like "player X "CAN" be a top 5 guy"..........................well, so can 50 other guys.

This can be annoying but it's good to separate the guys with that potential from the guys that don't. For example, take two guys with almost identical redraft ADP - Chris Johnson and Alfred Morris. Morris has almost zero chance IMO of being a top 5 guy in PPR while it's very conceivable that Johnson could.

Not to get off topic, but as a rookie with almost no catches, Morris was 16 points away from being top 5. Zero chance?? You might have just opened up another pet peeve, lol. Saying someone "can't" do something that that pretty much just did. I mean, you are saying "a rookie can't improve".

I mean, I too am of the belief that Morris probably just had his career year.....................but saying he "can't" improve is a bit naive.

You do realize one catch per game would pretty much double his receptions, right? If they involve him even a LITTLE in the passing game, which I can easily see, it would be a big improvement on that. Now will he rush for 1600 again with double digit TDs?? I am a little skeptical.

Morris had a nearly perfect rookie year and I'm skeptical of him repeating it, let alone improving on it. There's a greater than zero chance of it happening but I think there are better gambles if you are looking for upside. If all you want is a safe RB1 then he's your guy.

I'm not saying he can't improve as a receiver but the likelihood of him catching more than 20 passes is low. He has much more competition this year will Helu healthy and looking like the 3rd down back.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Helu isn't looking like the 3rd down back, at least yet. Morris is the best pass protector in our RB corps, graded out very well in that aspect last year, and Shanahan has specifically said we're working him into the passing game more.

 

[cheese]

Alex Smith won't put up 3500 yards because he's no good, doesn't read defenses, isn't accurate, etc, etc.

Similarly...

Gio Bernard will be ROY and get 1500 total yards because he's so quick, great hands, etc

Just throwing out random examples of times that people make absolute statements about players without considering both components of the talent + situation equation. I believe basically any QB in the entire league can put up big numbers if they throw often enough. How good a RB is doesn't mean much if he's not likely to get the carries. Everyone agrees Smith is average is Bernard is really good. You don't need to convince me of that. What is relevant to players like that is if Smith will get the attempts to overcome it and if Bernard will get the attempts to show it. There is no point in talking about those players without talking about those things. There are tons of situations like this out there.

I think people should understand what the drawbacks are of a player they like and what the appeal is of a player they hate. When trying to convince people for a player, you should be prepared to address those drawbacks rather than hammer home the strengths that everyone agrees with. When trying to convince people against a player, be prepared to address why you don't buy into the appeal rather than just hammering on the weaknesses that everyone already knows.

 

[Biabreakable]

Helu isn't looking like the 3rd down back, at least yet. Morris is the best pass protector in our RB corps, graded out very well in that aspect last year, and Shanahan has specifically said we're working him into the passing game more.

Your right Helu is looking like a player who could be the starter if Morris misses any time, not just the 3rd down RB.